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For the St. Louis Cardinals, a fitting end to an oftentimes exasperating regular season

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The perfect ending to an oftentimes exasperating regular season.

It wasn’t supposed to be this hard. During the Hot Stove that followed the St. Louis Cardinals’ 97-win National League pennant winning 2013 season, general manager John Mozeliak made the team better. At least on paper. Of course the reality is that no team has 97 wins worth of talent on paper, let alone 98 or more. In truth, 2013 probably should have tipped us all off to this reality.

The home stretch of the Cards’ 2013 regular season combined with a World Series trip to whitewash the dogfight that was the Central division race. On Labor Day, the Pirates led the Cardinals by a game in the Central standings. It was by way of a .704 September winning percentage—which outpaced even the 2011 Cardinals’ miracle run winning percentage of .692, mind you—that St. Louis was able to distance itself from Pittsburgh in the division standings. Also worth noting, the Pirates led the Cardinals 2-1 in the NLDS before St. Louis broke the hearts of Tortuga by reeling off two consecutive wins to advance to the NLCS.

2013 was not easy; it was hard. Yet the perception of a division runaway took hold. And the expectation of another such club took root. But the month of April 2014 quickly dashed any notions of a runaway division champ juggernaut in the Mound City.

On May Day, the would-be St. Louis juggernaut sat at just 15-14, closer to the third-place Reds in the standings than the first-place Brewers, who set a blistering .690 winning pace with a 20-9 record in the season’s opening month. For a bit more context: losing April’s final two games actually dropped the Brew Crew’s eye-popping winning percentage. The Pirates (the division’s other 2013 NLDS qualifier) sat at just 10-18. The Central battle lines were redrawn; there was a new frontrunner.

But the Brewers were incapable of running away with the division.

The Cards won at a .556 clip in May, .519 in June, .542 in July, and .552 in August. Meanwhile, the Brewers limped along. May was a losing month (.464) followed by a blistering June (.646). After July 1 it was not so much downhill for the Brewers as falling off a cliff. Milwaukee went 9-16 (.360) in July and 13-14 (.481) in August. The freefall continued into September, when a St. Louis surge allowed the Cards to catch and then surpass the Brewers in the Central standings. A 7-14 (.333) September has not only seen the Pirates surpass the Brewers, but Milwaukee to sit on the cusp of postseason elimination. (A Giants win or a Brewers loss mathematically dashes Milwaukee’s October dreams.)

Since the end of April and through play on September 23, the Central’s top three clubs have posted the following records:

  • Milwaukee: 60-68 (.469)
  • St. Louis: 73-56 (.566)
  • Pittsburgh: 76-53 (.589)

The long slog to get to this point gave us every indication that winning the division wouldn’t be easy. Even if Milwaukee seemed intent to make it so, Pittsburgh made it clear that their group of swashbucklers were and are intent on making a second consecutive Cardinals division title difficult. The Cardinals’ magic number in regards to the Pirates has shank ever so slightly, if at all, throughout the month, thanks to a 15-6 (.714) September that has been a bit better than the Cards’ 15-7 (.682). Over the last ten games, Pittsburgh has been even hotter, going 8-2 to the Redbirds’ 7-3.

The Cardinals’ magic number to win the Central sits at four as the two teams enter play today, September 24. Pittsburgh plays the Braves tonight; St. Louis the Cubs. The Pirates will play another game in Atlanta on Thursday before flying to Cincinnati for their season’s final series, a three-game set against the Reds. After Wednesday’s game at Wrigley, the Cards will travel to Arizona, for a three-game set against the lowly Diamondbacks.

The Cardinals must win all four of their remaining games to ensure the Pirates are eliminated from contention for the Central crown. This and the Pirates’ stubbornly excellent play have me pondering doomsday scenarios. There’s the possibility of an outright collapse, which would allow Pittsburgh to win the division and relegate the Cards to the brutish wild-card play-in game. Also possible, if the Cards go 3-1 and the Pirates don’t lose any of their remaining five contests over the next five days or St. Louis finishes 2-2 with Pittsburgh losing just once, a Central division tiebreaker at Busch Stadium (because the Cardinals bested the Pirates in the clubs’ regular-season series). Given the slog that the 2014 season has been, neither of these eventualities would surprise me. Now it’s time to hunker down and cheer the Cardinals while watching the scoreboard updates from Atlanta and Cincinnati. Because it looks like the Cards will need some help to cross the division race finish line in sole possession of first place.


Milwaukee Brewers Top 20 2014 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

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The Milwaukee Brewers farm system still lacks impact depth, but there was good news for the organization in 2014.

We continue our organization reviews this afternoon with a look at the Milwaukee Brewers. Remember, this is the PRE-SEASON list. This is not a new list. These are pre-season rankings and grades. This is a general review of 2014 not a detailed preview for 2015.

This list was originally posted January 30, 2014

1) Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Grade B: Age 25, posted 1.46 ERA with 114/32 K/BB in 111 innings for Triple-A Nashville, then 4.57 ERA with 53/18 K/BB in 65 innings for the big league squad. I think he continues to steadily improve.

2) Victor Roache, OF, Grade B-: Borderline B. Age 23, hit .226/.298/.400 with 18 homers, 11 steals, 37 walks, 138 strikeouts in 433 at-bats for High-A Brevard County in the Florida State League. Tremendous raw power but serious contact problems.

3) Tyrone Taylor, OF, Grade B-: Borderline B. Age 20, hit .278/.331/.396 with 36 doubles, six homers, 22 steals, 39 walks, 58 strikeouts in 507 at-bats for Brevard County. Solid reports with solid numbers and young.

4) Devin Williams, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Age 20, posted 4.48 ERA with 66/20 K/BB in 66 innings for Helena in the Pioneer League, 74 hits. Not dominant statistically but a very live arm, transition to full-season ball will be illuminating.

5) Clint Coulter, C, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Age 21, hit .287/.410/.520 with 22 homers, 73 walks, 103 strikeouts in 429 at-bats for Low-A Wisconsin. Much better than injury-plagued 2013, still needs defensive polish but I think the bat is real.

6) Orlando Arcia, SS, Grade C+: Borderline B-: Age 20, hit .289/.346/.392 with 29 doubles, four homers, 31 steals, 42 walks, 65 strikeouts in 498 at-bats for Brevard County. Very strong defensive reports and bat is rapidly improving; stock up.

7) Mitch Haniger, OF, Grade C+: Borderline B-: Age 23, traded to Arizona Diamondbacks for Gerardo Parra, hit .259/.324/.422 with 11 homers, 23 walks, 51 strikeouts in 282 at-bats for Double-A Huntsville and Mobile.

8) Johnny Hellweg, RHP, Grade C+: Tommy John surgery. Age 25.

9) Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Grade C+:Age 24, posted 3.57 ERA with 147/61 K/BB in 154 innings for Huntsville and Nashville, 140 hits. A solid season, ready for a trial.

10) David Goforth, RHP, Grade C+: Age 25, posted 3.76 ERA with 46/29 K/BB in 65 innings, 60 hits, 27 saves. Converted to relief after being used as a starter in the A-ball, projects as middle man type in the majors.

11) Tucker Neuhaus, 3B, Grade C+: Age 19, hit .233/.296/.328 with 20 walks, 76 strikeouts, three homers in 232 at-bats for Helena in the Pioneer League. Very disappointing but Brewers still like his tools and he’s young.

12) Taylor Williams, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, posted 2.72 ERA with 137/28 K/BB in 132 innings for Wisconsin and Brevard County, 107 hits. Solid campaign for inning-eating strike-thrower.

13) Tyler Wagner, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, posted 1.86 ERA with 118/48 K/BB in 150 innings for Brevard County, 118 hits. Another inning-eater type with a strong year under his belt, Double-A pitching staff will be interesting next year.

14) Nick Delmonico, 1B-3B, Grade C+: Borderline C. Age 22, hit .262/.300/.404 in 141 at-bats for Brevard County before being suspended 50 games for amphetamine use.

15) Jason Rogers, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline C. Age 26, hit .296/.365/.489 with 18 homers, 53 walks, 94 strikeouts in 493 at-bats between Huntsville and Nashville. Rated as a sleeper pre-season and lived up to that, earning a little major league time. Older prospect but could be a useful role player.

16) Hunter Morris, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline C. Morris will rank ahead of Rogers on every other prospect list due to his draft pedigree, but he’s only five months younger than Rogers and hasn’t been as productive due to weaker plate discipline and more serious contact issues. Hit 24 homers in Triple-A but wasn’t promoted to the majors for September. Neither Rogers nor Morris offer much defense, both are slow slugger types, but Rogers has a more consistent track record, strikes out less, and they are not that far apart in age. I will go where the numbers lead me in this case and put Rogers ahead.That looks like the right decision, as Rogers out-hit Morris again. Age 25, Morris hit .279/.323/.448 with 11 homers, 20 walks, 74 strikeouts in 330 at-bats for Nashville.

17) Ariel Pena, RHP, Grade C+:
Borderline C. Age 25, posted 4.56 ERA with 140/75 K/BB in 128 innings for Nashville, 96 hits. Still throws hard, still wobbles with command.

18) Michael Ratterree, OF, Grade C+: Borderline C: Age 23, hit .235/.350/.452 with 33 doubles, 18 homers, 75 walks, 154 strikeouts in 447 at-bats for Wisconsin. Excellent power production for Midwest League, but was old for the level and has contact issues.

19) Barrett Astin, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline C: Age 22, posted 4.96 ERA with 81/36 K/BB in 122 innings for Wisconsin, 132 hits. Traded to Cincinnati Reds for Jonathan Broxton.

20) Damien Magnifico, RHP, Grade C:
Age 23, posted 3.74 ERA with 76/43 K/BB in 120 innings for Brevard County, 110 hits. Throws hard, still working on secondary pitches.

The Brewers ranked 29th on my pre-season organizational ranking list, but there was good news on the farm this year. Jimmy Nelson looks like he will be a workhorse starter, and fellow right-handers Taylor Williams, Tyler Wagner, and Taylor Jungmann all had solid campaigns. Right-handers Jorge Lopez and Drew Gagnon also boosted their stock, and the 2014 draft brought in highly-regarded lefty Kodi Medeiros. There’s a foundation for a pitching staff here.

Positionally, the best news was the development of catching prospect Clint Coulter and a solid season from outfielder Tyrone Taylor. The ’14 draft added a pair of extremely high ceiling high school bats in Monte Harrison and Jake Gatewood, although both will need time and Gatewood is high risk in particular.

The system still lacks impact depth, but the Brewers have shown an admirable ability to identify under-rated talent. Sophomore second baseman Scooter Gennetthit .291/.322/.437 and is a feather in the cap of the system. Outfielder Khris Davis, another sophomore, contributed 36 doubles and 22 homers in the majors despite scout skepticism about his tools.

455174002_medium

Khris Davis, photo by Mike McGinnis, Getty Images

Mike Fiers, like Davis a late-round pick who didn’t excite scouts, returned to effectiveness after an injury-plagued ’13: he now has 218 major league innings with a 3.51 ERA and a 221/61 K/BB, showing that you don’t need a blazing fastball to get people out.

Overall, this system still needs work but it was a year of improvement.

Brewers 5, Reds 0: Lohse stops the bleeding, for now

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Lohse shut out the Reds on 2 hits and 0 walks, and the Brewers staved off potential elimination for a few hours.

W: Kyle Lohse, 13-9

L: Daniel Corcino, 0-2

HR: None

Fangraphs WPA Box

The Brewers clinched at least a .500 season (yay!) behind a dominating performance from Kyle Lohse tonight. He allowed only 2 hits and no walks, throwing a 106 pitch shutout. And they managed to get Milwaukee 5 burgers for 5 bucks at George Webb's for the 3rd time in September.

The Brewers got runs in the 4th and 5th on a single by Rickie Weeks and a double by Carlos Gomez. In the 8th inning mentioned above, the Brewers had a huge rally in which Jean Segura drove in Weeks in and Gerardo Parra, and then Lohse brought home Segura on a sacrifice fly.

After the Dodgers/Giants game later tonight, the Brewers might be eliminated, and they might not. But it was an encouraging game in a month that hasn't had many of them.

All Jacked Up. Brewers 5, Reds 0.

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Where, oh where would the Reds be without Jack Hannahan?

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jack Hannahan got a rare start for the Cincinnati Reds tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers, and he made the most of it.  The utility man - who had gone 1 for 5 with an RBI in his career off Kyle Lohse - didn't disappoint manager Bryan Price, smacking a pair of singles that served as the only hits the lineup produced all evening.

In fact, nobody else even took a walk, because eww, walks.

Hannahan inched his season batting average to a near-Brucian .196 in the process, which makes me want to cry in more ways than one.  Keep in mind that before tonight, Hannahan had fewer hits in 2014 than Johnny Cueto.  Starting 1B, indeed.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  J.J. Hoover, who tossed a scoreless 1.2 innings in early relief of Daniel Corcino (which included pitching out of a bases loaded jam); and Sam LeCure, who also kept the Brewers off the scoreboard in his lone inning of work (which lowered his ERA to a respectable 3.44).

Key Plays

  • Corcino hummed along quite nicely through the first three innings before an Aramis Ramirez double with one out in the Top of the 4th started the unraveling.  Ramirez scored two batters later on a single from Rickie Weeks, who was then fortunately thrown out at 2B trying to stretch his hit into a double.  Reds trailed, 1-0.
  • The young Reds righty then ran into one of his worrisome bouts of wildness in the Top of the 5th, and it cost him the opportunity to pitch any deeper on the evening.  A one out walk to Jean Segura began things, and the Brewers SS made it to both 2B and then 3B on consecutive wild pitches by Corcino.  Cuetinho then walked the opposing pitcher before a double from Gomez tacked on another run and a subsequent walk to Ryan Braun* chased the Reds starter to the showers.  Hoover was brought in and got a liner and strikeout to end that threat, however that left the Reds down, 2-0.
  • The Reds offense went back to doing a heaping pile of nothing, and the Brewers played pile on when Ryan Dennick was brought in to pick the Top of the 7th.  Dennick walked back to back Brewers to start the inning, and both eventually scored on a Segura double two batters later.  Lohse chipped in with a sac fly for run number 5, and both teams went quickly after that.  Reds lose, 5-0.

FanGraphannahan


Source: FanGraphs


Other Notes
  • That was a snoozer.  Golly day.
  • One Reds baserunner made it to second base all night.  Rad.
  • David Holmberg will take the mound tomorrow opposite Yovani Gallardo in the final game of the series.  First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 ET.
  • As of 11 PM, the Brewers victory has them still mathematically alive for the 2nd Wild Card spot.  If the San Francisco Giants manage a victory in their game against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, though, they'll be eliminated for good.
  • Tunes.

Reds vs. Brewers, Game 3: Preview and Predictions

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CMilwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Great American Ballpark

David Holmberg vs. Yovani Gallardo

COMPLETE COVERAGE >

David Holmberg tries to stop the bleeding today, and will try to follow up an okay night by Corcino last night. Don't look now, but Holmberg has 2 quality starts in a row since his return to the rotation.

He'll face Yovani Gallardo, who is coming off of a dominant start in Pittsburgh, and exactly who the Brewers need pitching right now as they're still on life support in the NL Wild Card. They need a win.

Go Reds.

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link.

Bullpen Log

Reliever9/209/219/229/239/245 day totals
Aroldis Chapman1.0, 12p1.0, 13p
1.0, 24p
3.0 IP, 49 pitches
Carlos Contreras




0.0 IP, 0 pitches
Sam LeCure
1.0, 10p

1.0, 14p2.0 IP, 24 pitches
Jumbo Diaz1.0, 28p1.0, 18p


2.0 IP, 46 pitches

Manny Parra




0.0 IP, 0 pitches
Pedro Villarreal1.0, 12p


1.0, 26p2.0 IP, 38 pitches
Logan Ondrusek




0.0 IP, 0 pitches
Ryan Dennick0.0, 6p


1.0, 23p1.0 IP, 29 pitches
J.J. Hoover



1.2, 26p1.2 IP, 26 pitches

Brewers mathematically eliminated from MLB playoffs

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The Brew Crew were simply unable to sustain their first-half surge, and now will be spending October watching from home.

Although the Milwaukee Brewers gave it a yeoman's effort, their season will be ending earlier than they had hoped after failing to make good on a first-half lead in the National League Central. They fell back down to earth as the Cardinals and Pirates moved past them in the race for both the division and Wild Card.

The Brewers were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention on Thursday with a 5-3 loss in Cincinnati, clinching a wild card spot for the San Francisco Giants.

Milwaukee got off to a blazing start at 20-7 and spent 149 consecutive days in first place, including a 2½-game lead as late as Aug. 19. But since then the Brewers went 10-23 to knock them out of the postseason picture.

While some may look back at this season as a missed opportunity, seamheads would much rather call it "regression to the mean," as Milwaukee's minus-three run differential would attest. That's not to say that the team didn't have its moments, but it was simply unable to overcome its mediocrity -- 14th in MLB in runs scored per game and 17th in ERA -- to make any October magic happen.

But there's no reason to lose all hope ye who root next year. Ryan Braun is still producing solid numbers, though 2014 was a bit of an off-year for him, and Carlos Gomez made his second straight All-Star team as a strong two-way player. Khris Davis developed a bit of pop in his bat and Jonathan Lucroy posted a six-win season (by both measures) after hinting at untapped potential the last two years. On the pitching side, four veteran starters (three of whom are still under contract next year) anchored the rotation with above-average seasons and Mike Fiers (1.84 ERA in nine starts) emerged as another starting candidate late in the year. There's reason to believe that Milwaukee will be in the running for the NL Central again next year.

Holmbergler steals another win. Reds 5, Brewers 3.

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The young lefty was solid again in notching his 2nd career victory.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

David Holmberg apparently likes pitching to the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cincinnati Reds rookie picked up the 2nd win of his 2014 today, and both have come against the Brewers in games they desperately needed to win for postseason purposes.  Holmy allowed just 3 hits and a pair of earned runs over 6 IP on a sun-soaked afternoon at GABP, and the bullpen and offense both backed him enough for the good guys to pull out the W.  It's the third consecutive start where Holmberg as gone exactly 6 innings, and he's allowed 2 or fewer runs in each of them, lowering his season ERA to a palatable 4.80 in the process.

Congrats, Dave, and well pitched.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Brandon Phillips, who went 2 for 5, scored twice, and launched his first dinger since June 28th; Jay Bruce, who had 3 hits, scored once, and drove in a run; Yorman Rodriguez, who had a pair of hits (one of the RBI variety); Brayan Pena, who had a pair of hits and a sac bunt for bonus points; and Aroldis Chapman, who earned his 35th save of the season with a perfect 9th inning.

Key Plays

  • The desperate Brewers jumped out to the early lead in today's matinee, as Bill Hall All-Star Rickie Weeks launched a meatball from Holmberg well over the wall in CF for a solo dinger in the Top of the 2nd.  Reds trailed, 1-0.
  • The Reds rallied to tie things up in the Bottom of the 3rd, however, thanks to some small-ball and clutchy clutchitude with 2-outs.  Phillips led off the inning with a single, and he moved over to 2B thanks to a bunt from Brayan Pena.  Yes, a bunt.  A Yovani Gallardo wild pitch moved BP over to 3B, and he scored when Bruce roped a single into RF.  Game tied, 1-1.
  • Milwaukee took command again a half-inning later, though, as the first two runners reached on a single and a walk, and a Holmberg wild pitch and sac-fly later plated Ryan Braun* from 3B to again put the Brewers up by a run.  Reds trailed, 2-1.
  • The wheels that Gallardo had been tediously riding on through 4 innings began to fall off midway through the Bottom of the 5th, and the Reds pounced as the Brewers starter neared 100 pitches.  Pena singled to lead off, and after he was retired at 2B on a Todd Frazier force-out grounder, Bruce doubled to put runners on 2B & 3B.  Ryan Ludwick then reached on an error that allowed Frazier to score, and Bruce then came across the plate when Yorman yo-yo'd Yovani's pitch for a single (sorry).  Reds led, 3-2.
  • Gallardo sat at 99 pitches through 5 innings, but he was brought out to face Jason Bourgeois at the start of the Bottom of the 6th, and that worked in the Reds favor.  Bourgy singled to lead off, and Gallardo stayed in to face the next batter, Phillips, despite having thrown 103 pitches (keep in mind also that Phillips entered today's game having gone 22 for 70 lifetime off Gallardo (.355/.403/.500) with a pair of dingers against him in the past and had already gone 1 for 3 against him on the day.)  Well, two pitches in, Phillips blasted a 2-run dinger deep over the LF fence to put the Reds ahead for good and end Gallardo's day and Milwaukee's season.  Reds led, 5-2.
  • Sam LeCure took over in the Top of the 7th and managed to let the bases get loaded, but some nifty defense and a bailout from fellow bullpenner (heh) Jumbo Diaz allowed the Reds to escape with just a single run allowed.  Diaz and Aroldis Chapman locked things down from there, and that was that.  Reds win, 5-3!

Fourth-to-Last FanGraph of the Season


Source: FanGraphs

Other Notes

  • The 70 PA against Gallardo that Phillips had logged prior to today's game was his 2nd most against any pitcher in his career, trailing only the 73 PA against Wandy Rodriguez.  Since math is complicated, I'll tell you that the 4 PA he added today means he's faced Gallardo more than any other pitcher since he made it to the big leagues.
  • Symmetry is cool - if you're into that sort of thing - so it's worth mentioning that the now 74 PA Gallardo's faced against Phillips is also his most against any batter.  Second on that list is Andrew McCutchen, with 57.
  • Interestingly, 9 players have faced Gallardo at least 43 times in their careers, and 8 of them have an OPS against him of at least .823.  The only one who doesn't?  Joey Votto, at .779 in 54 PA.  Still miss you, Joey.
  • Today's loss by the Brewers officially eliminated any remaining fractional percentage chance that they could make the playoffs.  At least they only spent 4 months in 1st place.
  • Billy Hamilton was still feeling the pain from the catch that robbed Carlos Gomez of a dinger yesterday, as the concussion symptoms that caused him to leave the game early still persisted.  There's a very real chance we've seen the last of Billy in 2014, which is a bummer.  Best of luck to him feeling better, and soon.
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates come to town for the final series of the season this weekend, with the first pitch of game one scheduled for 7:10 PM ET Friday night.  Vance Worley's goggles will be on the mound for the Buccos opposite Mike Leake.
  • Tunes.

What we learned: September 26, 2014

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Today's lessons include the beginning of offseason planning after the collapse finally completed.

Yesterday's Results

Reds 5, Brewers 3

The collapse is officially complete. With the Brewers loss yesterday, they were officially eliminated from playoff contention. Yovani Gallardo only pitched into the sixth inning, allowing five runs on ten hits. Only three of those runs were earned, though, as the Brewers defense committed three errors in the game. The Brewers had their chances to score, with runners in scoring position in a few different innings. However, they only managed to put up three runs.

Cram Session

The Collapse

Offseason Planning

Other Notes

Minor League Update

Division Update

TeamWLGB
Cardinals8871-
Pirates87721
Brewers81787
Reds748514
Cubs718817

This Weekend's Division Games

  • Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
    Friday: Michael Wacha vs. Trevor Cahill - 8:40 pm
    Saturday: Lance Lynn vs. Wade Miley - 7:10 pm
    Sunday: Adam Wainwright vs. Josh Collmenter - 3:10 pm
  • Pirates @ Reds
    Friday: Vance Worley vs. Mike Leake - 6:10 pm
    Saturday: Francisco Liriano vs. Alfredo Simon - 12:05 pm
    Sunday: Gerrit Cole vs. Johnny Cueto - 12:10 pm

This Weekend's Action

There are three games left to finish the season, and all of those are at home against the Cubs. Brewers need to win one game to ensure a winning record in 2014, but that's about all they are playing for this weekend. Here are the starting matchups:

Friday: Eric Jokisch vs. Jimmy Nelson - 7:10 pm
Saturday: Tsuyoshi Wada vs. Wily Peralta - 6:10 pm
Sunday: Kyle Hendricks vs. Mike Fiers - 1:10 pm

(For those of you outside the Brewers & Cubs markets, all games this weekend will be free to watch on MLB.TV.)


On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Brewers Series Preview

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The 2014 season comes to an end as the Cubs head north and play their final three games against the Milwaukee Brewers.

You'll have to forgive me for waxing a little sentimental, but for me personally it's kind of neat that the Cubs end the season against the Milwaukee Brewers primarily because that's where my journey as a BCB writer began back on April 24. It's been quite the adventure for me this season, as I've probably been more in tune with the Cubs this year than I have in any previous year ever. Hopefully this feature is better now than it was then, but I'm not the arbiter of my own work. More than anything else I hope that you have enjoyed reading it throughout the season and have found it beneficial.

But enough sappiness; there's one series left to be played before the 2014 season comes to a close.

After the series win against the St. Louis Cardinals in the final games at Wrigley Field this season the Cubs' record moves to 71-88, and with one more win they will have their best record since 2010. In the 2015 draft pick race, the Cubs are guaranteed to have a protected first-round pick and it can still mathematically fall anywhere between fifth (Minnesota Twins, 68-91) and 10th (Cincinnati Reds, 74-85).

With the Brewers' 5-3 loss to the Reds on Thursday afternoon they are now eliminated from playoff contention, meaning that this series is now for pride more than anything else. The Cubs can win the season series against Milwaukee for the first time since 2010 with a sweep this weekend, but you have to go that far back to find the last time the Cubs actually swept a three-game series at Miller Park (April 23-25, 2010). But hey, in the final weekend anything can happen, right?

LIKELY PITCHING MATCHUPS:

Friday: Eric Jokisch (0-0, 1.74 ERA, 1.452 WHIP) vs. Jimmy Nelson (2-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.446 WHIP)
Saturday:Tsuyoshi Wada (4-3, 3.22 ERA, 1.197 WHIP) vs. Wily Peralta (16-11, 3.62 ERA, 1.320 WHIP)
Sunday:Kyle Hendricks (7-2, 2.46 ERA, 1.083 WHIP) vs. Mike Fiers (6-4, 1.92 ERA, 0.853 WHIP)

Matt Garza was originally scheduled to start the series opener on Friday but is being scratched with shoulder tightness according to Daniel Kramer at MLB.com. The Cubs have faced Nelson and Fiers once each this year and split those two games, winning 4-2 and losing 6-2. From the land of strange happenings: This will be the fourth time that the Cubs will be facing Peralta this year and the Brewers have not scored a single run in any of his previous three starts, losing the three games by a combined score of 15-0.

THE OFFENSE:

The Brewers currently have six starters whose OPS is at or above .750:

One thing that definitely hurt the Brewers down the stretch was their offense, which pretty much fell apart over the past two weeks. In their last 11 games, Milwaukee has a team batting average of .206 and a team OPS of .579, second-worst and fourth-worst in the National League. Over the last five games those numbers drop to .184 and .542, both of which are at the bottom of the league.

The list on the Cubs' side (with last two weeks in parentheses):

Even though he's been shut down for the year, I feel it necessary to mention the great turnaround this year for Starlin Castro who will finish the year with a .292 average, his best since 2011, and career-best .777 OPS. His 14 home runs tie his career high from 2012 and he had 122 more plate appearances that season. Rizzo's .281 average is also his best since 2012 and his .897 OPS is the best in his career by a very wide margin. If Javier Baez can figure things out in 2015 and if Kris Bryant performs anywhere close to as well as he has so far in the minors... the over-.750 list could be a lot of fun to watch next year, that's for sure.

GAME PREVIEWS:

Game 1: I'm very happy that Jokisch will be getting a chance to start this game. In case you're unaware of his minor-league numbers he had a good season at Triple-A Iowa, posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 26 starts there. This will be his fourth outing with the big club, having made three previous long-relief appearances in Cub losses. Nelson has not started a game since September 7 and has only pitched twice since then, giving up six hits in 1⅓ innings of work. This will be his first appearance since September 18 when he gave up three of those hits in a 13th-inning loss to the Cardinals.

Game 2: I didn't think I'd see Wada pitch as a Cub again, but partly due to the last "outing" from Edwin Jackson, Wada ends up getting one more chance. He pitched well in his one previous start against the Brewers, giving up five hits and two runs in 6⅔ innings in a 4-2 win on August 13. Peralta has had three straight starts in which he has allowed two runs or less, posting game scores above 60 in each of them.

Game 3: The season finale, and what better way to end the 2014 campaign than with a great pitching matchup.  This will be Hendricks' third start against Milwaukee this year, with the Cubs winning the previous two games. His last start against them was a bit shaky as he gave up nine hits in 5⅔ innings but escaped with only two runs allowed. Fiers has been great for the Brewers this season, giving up two runs or less in eight of his nine starts for them this year and three runs in the other one.

RUSS' PREDICTION: Heck, why not. 3-0. Might as well go out with a bang.

NEXT STOP: After Sunday's game ends, it's 190 days until Opening Day when the Cubs take on the St. Louis Cardinals at home on April 6, 2015. And what a long 190 days it will be.

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The Inverted 2014 Brewers are the real 2012 Brewers

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Flip the seasons around and the Brewers collapse this year looks a lot like the slow start back in 2012.

If the Brewers take 2 out of 3 this weekend in their final home series of 2014 against the Cubs, they will finish 83-79. That number may have stuck in your head, as it is the exact same record the Brewers had back in 2012. You know, the year they were under .500 until September 11th, sold at the trade deadline by sending Zack Greinke to LA, and rode a hot stretch in August and September to the fringes of the Wild Card race. Here's how those two teams stack up in terms of running win totals over the course of the year, assuming the 2014 squad wins 2 games this weekend.*

 photo 1.png

We can make it a bit more depressing by inverting the wins in 2014 and pretending the Brewers had played this season in reverse. It becomes pretty hard to distinguish it from the 2012 campaign.

 photo 2.png

There are actually a lot of similarities to the 2012 Brewers and the 2014 Brewers, which I may give some further attention in a future "what went wrong?" post. One interesting difference is that in 2012, Mike Fiers came out of nowhere to solidify the rotation and help the Brewers make a late-season push towards a wild card spot. In 2014, Mike Fiers came out of nowhere to give us something interesting to watch between 3 up, 3 down offensive innings every 5 days.

* Possibly a bad assumption

** Graphing package credit to R

Cubs vs. Brewers Preview, Friday 9/26, 7:10 CT

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The final Cubs series of 2014 begins Friday night in Milwaukee.

Except for this sentence, this preview will not mention Derek Jeter.

The Cubs swept the Brewers the last time the teams met, at the beginning of September at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs hold a 9-7 season-series edge, though the Brewers have taken four of the six games played so far at Miller Park. That shouldn't matter, as Milwaukee has been more or less in free-fall for the last month or so. Since August 19 the Brewers are 10-23. The Cubs are 16-18 since that date.

One win in this series clinches the season set for the Cubs as well as give them their highest win total since 2010. A sweep would make the Brewers a .500 team for the year and give the Cubs a 12-7 season edge.

In the entire history of the Cubs playing the Brewers, the Cubs have never won more than 10 games in a single season over Milwaukee. Here's a chance to do just that. Milwaukee leads the all-time series with 138 wins to 132 for the Cubs.

Please check out Russ La Croix' excellent series preview if you have not already done so.

Finally, here's your once-a-series reminder to check out (if you haven't already) SB Nation's partner fantasy site, Fan Duel, where you can win real money. Here's the link. (Last time this year! I promise!)

Here are today's particulars.

Cubs lineup:

Coghlan LF, Baez SS, Rizzo 1B, Soler RF, Valbuena 3B, Alcantara 2B, Szczur CF, Lopez C, Jokisch P

Rafael Lopez gets his first MLB start at catcher, though he did catch nearly the entire game last Friday when Welington Castillo left after the first inning.

Brewers lineup:

C. Gomez CF, Weeks 2B, Braun RF, Lucroy C, Davis LF, Rogers 1B, H. Gomez 3B, Segura SS, Nelson P

Today's Starting Pitchers

Eric Jokisch

Eric Jokisch


Cubs

vs.Jimmy Nelson

Jimmy Nelson


Brewers

vs. Mil

--

vs. Cubs

Eric Jokisch is making his first major-league start after three pretty good relief appearances (10⅓ innings, two earned runs). So far, he has not walked a batter in the major leagues, something he was also very good at this year at Triple-A Iowa (31 walks in 158⅓ innings, a BB/9 ratio of 1.8). He's got a shot at the 2015 rotation and this will be a good audition.

Jimmy Nelson pitched reasonably well (six innings, three runs) against the Cubs September 1 at Wrigley Field, but the Cubs won the game anyway. Welington Castillo homered off Nelson. Since that game Nelson has made one start and two relief appearances and has an 8.53 ERA and 2.053 WHIP in 6⅓ innings. More of that, please.

Today's game is on CSN Chicago.

Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball. Be careful over there, though.

For 2014, we are going to have the same game-thread routine as 2013. Here's how it works.

You'll find the game preview -- like this one -- posting as the first link in the StoryStream™, which will then contain all the overflow threads and the recap. The recap will also be on the front page as a separate post; once I post a game recap, the stream for each game will be retitled "Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of Week) Game Threads" so you can go back and find every thread related to that particular game.

In general, game previews will post two hours before game time. Exception: for day games after night games, that will usually be 90 minutes.

You will also be able to find the First Pitch Thread and all the overflow threads in the box marked "Chicago Cubs Game Threads" at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in this section link). They will also appear in this StoryStream™. As I've done for each regular-season game for several years now, we'll have the First Pitch thread at five minutes before game time (moved up from actual game time per your requests), then an overflow one hour, two hours and 2:45 after game time.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Brewers to exercise $13 million option on Yovani Gallardo for 2015

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The Brewers will bring back the 28-year-old following an excellent bounceback season.

The Milwaukee Brewers will bring back veteran starter Yovani Gallardo for 2015, as CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the club is expected to exercise Gallardo's $13 million option. The decision comes as little surprise as Gallardo has been quite good this season.

The 28-year-old Gallardo entered 2014 after posting easily the worst full season of his eight-year big league career. In 180.2 innings, he had posted a 4.18 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and 0.5 WAR, finishing with the first below-average season of his career according to ERA+ (92). Gallardo rebounded nicely this season, playing a crucial role in helping the Brewers maintain their NL Central lead until their recent collapse. This year, Gallardo has posted a 3.51 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 2.70 K/BB, and 2.4 WAR in 192.1 innings pitched. He was among the brightest young pitchers in baseball early in his career, topping 200 strikeouts every year from 2009 to 2012, while averaging a 110 ERA+.

Barring an extension, Gallardo will hit the open market after next season. If he can repeat his 2014 performance, the former All-Star should be in for quite a large payday.

Overflow Thread 1: Cubs vs. Brewers, Friday 9/26, 7:10 CT

Overflow Thread 2: Cubs vs. Brewers, Friday 9/26, 7:10 CT

Overflow Thread 3: Cubs vs. Brewers, Friday 9/26, 7:10 CT


Cubs 6, Brewers 4: Weirdest Game Of The Year

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Strange things often happen when the Cubs visit Milwaukee. Friday night was no exception.

Friday night's game gets my nomination for "Weirdest Game of 2014," and, happily, the Cubs came out on top of the Brewers 6-4 anyway despite their starting pitcher not being able to throw strikes, some sketchy defense and a "free play" balk call where it appeared that neither Cubs manager Rick Renteria nor his players understood how the balk rule worked.

Let's start at the beginning with Eric Jokisch, who was making his first major-league start. One of Jokisch's strengths for most of his minor-league career was good control. This year at Triple-A Iowa, he walked just 31 in 158⅓ innings and had a 1.7 BB/9 ratio.

It seemed as if he walked 31 guys Friday night, but it was just four in four innings; he wound up with 86 pitches (41 strikes) on the night. Nervous during his first big-league start? Maybe, but he's going to have to do better if he wants a shot at the 2015 rotation (or bullpen).

As for the strange non-balk that eventually cost the Cubs a run, here's the best explanation I found on the play that resulted in the ejection of manager Rick Renteria:

The Cubs manager was ejected for the sixth time this season while arguing with second-base umpire Jeff Nelson after a ground ball to third went for an infield hit a split second after Nelson called a balk during the Cubs’ 6-4 victory Friday night.

Luis Valbuena came up with Carlos Gomez’s hot shot to third but had no play at first because Anthony Rizzo— reacting to Nelson’s call — didn’t cover the bag. Baserunner Jean Segura went from second to third on the play.

The rules allow for the Brewers essentially to get a free play. Had Gomez hit into an out, the Brewers would have been given the choice of accepting the balk and sending Gomez back to the plate.

Because the runner and the batter advanced, the balk call was wiped out and the play stood.

"I heard, ‘Balk,’ " Rizzo said. "I thought it was dead. … Learn something every day. Thankfully, it didn’t cost us the game."

Meanwhile, the Cubs were hitting and scoring plenty, and the good news there is that a lot of it was from players who will be a big part of the team's future. Javier Baez went 3-for-5, his second three-hit game, and drove in a pair of runs. Jorge Soler also had two RBI, and Chris Coghlan, who has been a pleasant surprise this year, homered to lead off the game and scored three runs. making Jokisch's rough outing a footnote to this game instead of the lead story.

Since Jokisch didn't complete five innings, it was "scorer's discretion" on who to award the individual pitching win. That went to Neil Ramirez, the only Cubs pitcher to not allow a baserunner, except for Hector Rondon, and since Rondon saved the game, he couldn't get a "win." Rondon posted his 28th save, very efficiently with 11 pitches. That's an excellent save total considering he wasn't officially anointed "closer" until May. It's also his 11th save with 11 or fewer pitches. Perhaps he can help teach Jokisch how to throw strikes.

The win clinched the season series for the Cubs over the Brewers, the first time they've won that season set since 2010. It's also the first time a Cubs team has won 72 games since 2010. Progress! If the Cubs can win one more game this weekend, it would make 2014 the first time they have ever won that many games over the Brewers. In fact, a Cubs team has won more than 10 games over a team from Milwaukee just once -- in 1963, when the Cubs went 12-6 against the Milwaukee Braves. Something to shoot for, I'd say.

They'll go for that Saturday night with Tsuyoshi Wada facing Wily Peralta. Remember, game time is an hour earlier than Friday -- 6:10 CT.

Cubs, Brewers Continue Weekend Series

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Saturday's game threads are all right here.

Here are today's particulars.

Cubs lineup:

Coghlan LF, Baez 2B, Castro SS, Valbuena 3B, Soler RF, Alcantara CF, Valaika 1B, Baker C, Arrieta P

Cardinals lineup:

Hamilton CF, Frazier 1B, Phillips 2B, Mesoraco C, Bruce RF, Negron 3B, Schumaker LF, Cozart SS, Axelrod P

Today's game is on WGN.

Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball. Be careful over there, though.

For 2014, we are going to have the same game-thread routine as 2013. Here's how it works.

You'll find the game preview -- like this one -- posting as the first link in the StoryStream™, which will then contain all the overflow threads and the recap. The recap will also be on the front page as a separate post; once I post a game recap, the stream for each game will be retitled "Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of Week) Game Threads" so you can go back and find every thread related to that particular game.

In general, game previews will post two hours before game time. Exception: for day games after night games, that will usually be 90 minutes.

You will also be able to find the First Pitch Thread and all the overflow threads in the box marked "Chicago Cubs Game Threads" at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in this section link). They will also appear in this StoryStream™. As I've done for each regular-season game for several years now, we'll have the First Pitch thread at five minutes before game time (moved up from actual game time per your requests), then an overflow one hour, two hours and 2:45 after game time.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Cubs vs. Brewers Preview, Saturday 9/27, 6:10 CT

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The Cubs are going for their fifth straight win over the Brewers and their fourth straight overall.

Despite a seven-game losing streak earlier this month and losing three of four to the Dodgers last weekend at Wrigley Field, the Cubs still have a chance to have a winning September if they can complete a sweep of the Brewers. They are 11-12 this month with the two games remaining. If they can do that, they'll have had three winning calendar months (June, August and September) for the first time since 2009.

In addition, they still have a shot at tying the Reds for fourth place if they can win out and the Pirates can sweep the Reds, something that's in the Pirates' interest as well.

So there are still things to play for this weekend before Cubs baseball goes into winter hibernation.

Here are today's particulars.

Cubs lineup:

Coghlan LF, Baez SS, Rizzo 1B, Soler RF, Valbuena 3B, Castillo C, Alcantara 2B, Kalish CF, Wada P

Brewers lineup:

C. Gomez CF, Braun RF, Lucroy C, Ramirez 3B, Weeks 2B, Segura SS, Parra LF, Maldonado 1B, Peralta P

Today's Starting Pitchers

Tsuyoshi Wada

Tsuyoshi Wada


Cubs

vs.Wily Peralta

Wily Peralta


Brewers

vs. Mil

--

vs. Cubs

Tsuyoshi Wada wasn't supposed to get another start after his last outing nine days ago, but with the complete and utter meltdown of Edwin Jackson, here he is. Wada started against the Brewers August 13 at Wrigley Field and threw 6⅔ good innings. The only runs he allowed were on solo homers by Rickie Weeks and Martin Maldonado -- a repeat of that performance could lead to another Cubs win.

Wily Peralta is having a fine year, his second as a full-time rotation starter for the Brewers. He has faced the Cubs three times this year, and the Cubs won all three games. The last one was August 12 at Wrigley Field. Anthony Rizzo homered off Peralta that day. More of this, please.

Today's game is on WGN.

Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball. Be careful over there, though.

For 2014, we are going to have the same game-thread routine as 2013. Here's how it works.

You'll find the game preview -- like this one -- posting as the first link in the StoryStream™, which will then contain all the overflow threads and the recap. The recap will also be on the front page as a separate post; once I post a game recap, the stream for each game will be retitled "Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of Week) Game Threads" so you can go back and find every thread related to that particular game.

In general, game previews will post two hours before game time. Exception: for day games after night games, that will usually be 90 minutes.

You will also be able to find the First Pitch Thread and all the overflow threads in the box marked "Chicago Cubs Game Threads" at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in this section link). They will also appear in this StoryStream™. As I've done for each regular-season game for several years now, we'll have the First Pitch thread at five minutes before game time (moved up from actual game time per your requests), then an overflow one hour, two hours and 2:45 after game time.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Overflow Thread 1: Cubs vs. Brewers, Saturday 9/27, 6:10 CT

Jonathan Lucroy sets MLB doubles record for catcher

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Lucroy is well on his way to becoming the first catcher to lead his league in doubles.

Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy on Saturday hit his 46th double as a catcher this season, setting an MLB single-season record for a player at that position.

Lucroy lined a ball to left field against Tsuyoshi Wada of the Cubs in the fifth inning, giving the Brewers a 2-1 lead.

The previous record was held by Ivan Rodriguez, who hit 45 of his 47 doubles in 1996 for the Texas Rangers as a catcher. Yadier Molina is third with 44 doubles, all as a catcher, in 2013 for the Cardinals.

The 28-year-old Lucroy has a MLB-leading 53 doubles, one more than Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera, and 10 more than Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, who is second in the NL. A catcher has never finished a season leading either circuit in two-baggers.

Lucroy this season was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. He started the midsummer classic for the NL and went 2-for-2 with -- you guessed it -- two doubles and two RBI in a 5-3 loss.

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