The Brewers travel to St. Louis for the final 3 games of the regular season between these two division rivals.

On the season, the Cardinals have taken 10 of the 16 games against the Brewers, which means they've already won the season series. That doesn't mean anything besides bragging rights though. What does matter is their 5 game division lead on the Brewers. The Brewers elimination number is now at 8 (not be confused with their Wild Card elimination number which is 12). With 12 games left it really feels like the NL Central crown is out of reach for the Crew. Of course a sweep of the Cardinals would change everything...

Unfortunately that seems quite improbable. The Brewers won 2 games in a row vs the Cardinals only twice this year, and only once were those games in the same series. That's just so frustrating because the Cardinals don't seem to be that much better than the Brewers. Their pitching staff has accumulated a 3.59 ERA vs the Brewers 3.79. Their offense ranks slightly below the Brewers using Fangraphs' Offense statistic. The one area where the Cardinals appear to have significant lead over the Brewers it's in defense.

This of course helps their pitching staff quite a bit and in several ways. For one example, the Cardinals have allowed just 38 unearned runs. The Brewers have allowed 59 unearned runs. (Unearned runs are the result of errors and the "error" statistic is subjective and therefore not always reliable. For example, a player is never assessed an error on a ball he can't get to. That's why Yuniesky Betancourt didn't have 10,000 errors every season. The point is that unearned runs isn't exactly a fool proof way of valuing the impact on pitching by the defense. It just gives us tangible runs to look at.)

Another fearful fact is that in the last 30 days, the Cardinals have ranked 9th in FG Off while the Brewers have ranked 21st. The Cardinals' offense has actually remained steadily effective over the last 14 and the last 7 days, while the Brewers offense effectiveness has actually decreased. But, that doesn't mean the Brewers offense can take off again. They did just score 9 runs against the Reds (which wasn't accounted for at the time of writing this, since I wrote this Sunday evening) after all. They're going to have to be on top of their game because the Cardinals are throwing their 3 best starters against them.

Tuesday, September 16th - 7:00 pm CT: Wily Peralta vs Lance Lynn

I'm kind of sad because John Lackey was supposed to pitch this game. The Cardinals decided to skip his start because he's dealing with a dead arm and that sucks because Lance Lynn sure is a tougher opponent. The Brewers always seem to struggle against him, though they did score 3 runs in 5 IP against him earlier this year, so it's not like he's untouchable. However, in their last meeting, about 10 days ago, he only allowed 1 run in 6 IP. Maybe the Brewers will be helped by having faced him so recently. Of course that could work both ways.

Of note for the Brewers: Wily Peralta had been struggling, but in his start against the Cardinals he allowed 3 runs in 6 IP, then he faced the Marlins and allowed only 1 run in 6.2 innings. Looking at Peralta's game log, a few times this year he's had back to back blow up outings followed by a prolonged stretch of effectiveness. This could, and probably very like is, just noise. If it's not, then we could see the good Peralta to finish out the season. That'll go a long way toward pushing the Brewers into the postseason.

Wednesday, September 17th -7:15 pm CT: Mike Fiers vs Adam Wainwright

I was actually pretty excited when the Brewers were set to face Wainwright in the previous series in Milwaukee. Wainwright had been in a prolonged funk and the Brewers had fared quite well tagging him for 2 runs in their first meeting and 7 runs in their second. Then Wainwright had to go and pitch a 1 run complete game in Miller Park. Wainwright is a beast, but we'll always have that 7 run game to pin our hopes on.

Of note for the Brewers: This is going to be the first time this season Mike Fiers has made a second start against an opponent. He faced the Cardinals on September 5th, allowing 2 runs in 6.2 IP on 7 hits, 1 BB, and a HR. I get worried when Fiers starts for the second time against an opponent. Since his fastball is fringey, he has to rely heavily on his deception (along with command) playing up. The more times a team sees him, the better their reads are going to be, theoretically. I'm not saying Fiers is going to struggle, but I am interested to see how he fares.

Also, I almost forgot the incident with Giancarlo Stanton. I'm a bit worried that Fiers is going to have issues pitching inside because of what happened and Fiers needs to pitch on the inside to continue having success. No one could blame Fiers if he's a bit frazzled still. He has faced adversity before so perhaps he'll be fine.

Thursday, September 18th - 7:15 pm CT: Kyle Lohse vs Shelby Miller

The Brewers haven't faced Shelby Miller since April when they faced him twice. In their first meeting Miller got the best of them pitching 6 innings allowing just 1 run. The second time the Brewers got some revenge (sort of, the Cards still won both games) when they scored 3 runs in 6 IP. The Brewers hit home runs in each of those games. Over the course of the season Miller has been mediocre. If the Brewers can put for a reasonable effort on offense, it could be a good game.

Of note for the Brewers: Lohse had a bounced back outing against the Reds, allowing 2 runs in 6.2 IP. But, for whatever reason, he seems to always struggle against his former team. Combining the last 2 times he's faced the Cardinals, they've scored 12 runs in 8 IP. I have no idea what his problem is when facing them, but he's obviously not that bad of a pitcher. In their first meeting this he held them to 3 runs in 6 IP. Let's hope for something closer to that effort.

Conclusion

The Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 and with Sunday's offensive explosion it really feels like they're back to being bad asses. They're going to need to be if they even just want to win this series as the Cardinals have pretty well dominated them this year. I have confidence in the Brewers and when they're right they can beat anyone. But, at the same time, it would be foolish to discount the Cardinals anymore. Personally, I've set my sights on the Wild Card race right now, but even that probably means the Brewers need to take at least 2 out of 3. They did that once this year. I think they have the ability to do it again. Let's just hope that's how it shakes out.

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link!

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

Minor league affiliation free agency starts tomorrow, and all three of the Brewers top affiliates (Nashville, Huntsville/Biloxi, Brevard County) will be at risk of changing.

UPDATE: Baseball America has provided an update to their original article with the teams that will be seeking new player development contracts beginning tomorrow. Neither the Huntsville/Biloxi Stars nor the Brevard County Manatees are expected to announce their intention to seek a new MLB affiliation. If this is the case, both teams will automatically have their PDCs with the Brewers extended two years. The Brewers have not officially announced anything in regards to this yet.

Original article is below.

-

Tomorrow is the beginning of a two-week period where minor league teams with expiring player development contracts (PDCs) can actively search for a new MLB affiliate. This comes up every even year (2014, 2016, 2018, etc.), and generally involves an affiliate shuffle. At the end of the two-week period, any teams who haven't found an affiliate for a level get matched up into an automatic two-year deal with one.

Baseball America has been tracking the deals as they have occurred, and have released a list of affiliates that will be open beginning tomorrow. Included on this list are the top three affiliates for the Brewers: the Nashville Sounds (AAA), Huntsville/Biloxi Stars (AA), and Brevard County Manatees (A). They are one of two MLB teams to not have a deal with any of it's top three affiliates (the Dodgers are the other team). What this could mean is in two weeks, all three of the Brewers top minor league affiliates could have changed.

While it's possible that all of these could end up being resigned, it's very unlikely considering that none were extended before now. Over on Twitter, Jim Goulart of Brewerfan.net is expecting a massive shakeup. Here are some tweets he had on the subject:

Goodbye Nashville. #Brewers can't play where they're not wanted. Hello Fresno, Albuquerque, or even Colorado Springs!? Busy week ahead.

— Jim Goulart (@Mass_Haas) September 15, 2014

For Pete's sake, what has Huntsville/Biloxi ownership group been waiting for? All indications have been #Brewers, could Dodgers swoop in?

— Jim Goulart (@Mass_Haas) September 15, 2014

Fascinated by the #Brewers/Manatees High-A tap dance, if there's a change in partnership inked Tue., who walked out on who?

— Jim Goulart (@Mass_Haas) September 15, 2014

The potential change from Nashville wouldn't be a surprise at this point. Rumors have been swirling about a potential move for weeks, and with the PDC not renewed, it wouldn't be a shock to see Nashville signed with a new team right away tomorrow. Huntsville/Biloxi and Brevard County would be bigger surprises at this point. While neither have been rumored to want a switch, they also didn't renew their PDCs with the Brewers. That means a new team could end up with either in the next few weeks. If either signs a deal right away tomorrow, it may indicate that something was planed ahead of time.

So, if the Brewers don't renew with any of them, where could the Brewers end up? Here are the other open spots for each level, according to the Baseball America report:

Triple-A
Albuquerque Isotopes
Colorado Springs SkySox
Fresno Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Redhawks
Sacramento Grizzlies

Double-A
Chattanooga Lookouts
Jackson Generals
Mobile BayBears
New Britain Rock Cats
Tulsa Drillers

Class A Advanced
Bakersfield Blaze
High Desert Mavericks
Lake Elsinore Storm
Modesto Nuts
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
Carolina Mudcats
Frederick Keys
Lynchburg Hillcats
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Bradenton Marauders
Daytona Cubs

All of this is still speculation at this point, but with no PDC with any of those three in place, all of this could change in the coming weeks. The only affiliations that are safe right now are with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (deal runs through 2016) and the Helena Brewers (new deal runs through 2018). Beyond that, the Brewers may have a plan in place, or they may end up with whoever doesn't get picked by the other teams. We will have to wait and see how all of it plays out.

Today's lessons include the beginning of the most important stretch of the Brewers season, as well as the beginning of minor league musical chairs.

Yesterday's Results

The Brewers had the day off.

The next six games are the most critical games of the Brewers season.

Just three weeks ago, we were thinking that the Brewers would come to this series against the Cardinals fighting for the NL Central title. Now, the Brewers are just fighting to remain in the playoff picture. Noah spelled out the importance of this next series (and the one following it) yesterday, and how the Brewers season rests on what happens in these six games. The Brewers could find themselves back in a playoff spot at the end of this, or could even be eliminated by the time it is done. The importance of these games cannot be overstated. The only thing left to see is if the Brewers can come through.

Minor league musical chairs begins today.

Today, MLB teams will officially be told which minor league affiliates have not renewed their player development contracts with MLB clubs and are officially available for affiliation. Entering today, three of the Brewers affiliates have not announced new deals with the Brewers: the Nashville Sounds, Huntsville/Biloxi Stars, and Brevard County Manatees. By all reports, it appears as though Nashville is as good as gone and will be the new affiliate of the Oakland Athletics, leaving the Brewers looking for a new Triple-A affiliate. Huntsville/Biloxi and Brevard County appear to be on track to be renewed (either with a formal deal or auto-renewal), but nothing has been announced yet. It's still possible all could be renewed, or all could be gone. We should get more clarity on it today.

Cram Session

• Derek has a countdown to the end of the season for the Brewers, going through several of the different big numbers left in the Brewers season.
• The Brewers released their rosters for the instructional leagues yesterday. Brad Krause of Miller Park Prospects has the list of participants and the schedule.
• Adam McCalvy of Brewers.com looks ahead to the road trip as a whole, with a breakdown of how the Brewers have faired against each opponent and key moments against each opponent.
• Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel also looks at the last twelve games of the season, and how the team is approaching it as this stretch begins.
• Mike Oz of Big League Stew includes the Brewers in his Five Big Things, noting that it is make-or-break time for the Brewers.

Division Update

• Cubs 1, Reds 0
• Cardinals and Pirates had the day off.

Today's Division Games

• Red Sox (Anthony Ranaudo) @ Pirates (Charlie Morton) - 6:05 pm
• Reds (Johnny Cueto) @ Cubs (Jake Arrieta) - 7:05 pm

Today's Action

The Brewers begin a three-game series in St. Louis tonight against the Cardinals. Yesterday, Derek previewed the entire series for the Brewers, which is about as critical as they can get. Wily Peralta faces off against Lance Lynn in the first game of the series. First pitch is at 7:15 pm, and Joe Morgan of MLB.com has the preview.

Hot links for your Tuesday. Now I want sausage & eggs.

Minor league baseball seasons have come to a close across the country, and whenever that happens in even numbered years that often means the end of associations between MLB teams and the cities where they've sent their prospects for years.  The Cincinnati Reds are no different, and the end of the 2014 season means they get to decide whether or not to continue working with the Bakersfield Blaze as their Advanced A-ball affiliate, or not.  Baseball America provided a comprehensive look at the contract status of each franchise and their affiliates, and it's worth checking out to get a glimpse into the possibilities on the table for the Reds as the potential relocation negotiations begin.

Of course, it's no simple system.  Finding cities with franchises and decent stadiums is hard enough, but doing so while other MLB franchises are also on the prowl means that there's often little time to waste in making agreements.  Also, of course, the regional nature of the lower minors means that there are only a handful of realistic options at hand, and the best often get claimed quickly.  Needing an Advanced A team means the Reds are in need of a team in the California League, the Carolina League, or the Florida State League, and as Doug Gray noted at redsminorleagues.com, that pretty much locks them in to one of six potential locations (Bakersfield being one of them). As Doug mentioned, the Reds have prior relationships with both Carolina and Lynchburg, so there's always a chance of them returning to the East coast.  However, with the moving of Spring Training facilities from Florida to Arizona a handful of years ago, the Reds made it very apparent that they'll have a presence out West, so it wouldn't surprise me to find that they've got interest in staying in the Cal League, either, despite the numerous issues with stadium age, hitter-friendliness, and lack of attendance.

Johnny Cuetowill take the mound for the Reds tonight against the Chicago Cubs in what looks like his third to last start of the 2014 season.  If you're one who buys into the trade rumors circling the Reds these days, you're firmly convinced that they'll be looking to trade pitching for hitting as the bulk of the current rotation heads into their final years under contract.  That, of course, means that you think Cueto could be moved for a haul of prospects as he aces his way towards a massive nine-figure contract, and if that's the case, well, this may be the last time you get to see Cueto pitch in Cincinnati's road gray uniforms.  He's scheduled for a pair of home starts to wrap the season (one against the Milwaukee Brewers and one against the Pittsburgh Pirates on the final day of the season), so there are still a few chances to see him in GABP.  Either way, traded or not, tonight's one of the final times to watch him pitch in what has been an otherworldly 2014 season.  As former fearless leader noted on Twitter, the kind of season Cueto has produced thus far rarely goes unrewarded.

Today is the 26th anniversary of the perfect game masterfully thrown by the Reds' Tom Browning which - among many other things of late - makes me feel quite old.  As the Enquirer noted on Twitter, Browning was featured in an E:60 video earlier this year about perfect games and those who have thrown them.  Check it out, and remember that Cueto is pitching on the anniversary...

In other baseball news, the Atlanta Braves have announced that their newer new stadium will be called SunTrust Park and that it will be as bland and lifeless as nearly every other middle of the pack suburban stadium in the United States.  One thing gleaned from this?  How many people apparently had an affinity for Turner Field, since it never really impressed me much, either.  Yet another once-in-a-half-century opportunity for progressive development squandered, though in Atlanta's case it's only a once-in-21-years opportunity.  Heck, at least they didn't bulldoze a historic city block smack dab in the middle of downtown to build a concrete box and a Jeff Ruby steakhouse.  I digress.

Finally, great person Brayan Pena was the latest Red to join Josh Sneed for an old-timey cruise around Cincinnati on The Drive.  Check it out, be be warned that there's a super loud ad with Marty talking to you before it starts.

Gerardo Parra and Wily Peralta kept the Brewers in it through 8, and a couple of September callups tied it and then won it.

W: Kintzler, 3-3

L: Siegrist, 1-4

HR: Parra (9)

Fangraphs WPA Box

The Brewers battled back from a brutal first inning to hold the Cardinals scoreless for 11 straight innings and managed just enough offense to eke out a critical victory tonight in extra innings. Gerardo Parra and Wily Peralta kept them in the game early, and a couple of September callups drove in runs to take home the win.

In the first, the Cardinals BABIPed their way to three weak singles to right field. Wily Peralta then walked in a run on his 18th pitch of the first inning with no one out. The Brewers turned a 6-4-3 double play on the next pitch, and then Peralta made a jumping grab of a bouncer up the middle to throw out Yadier Molina at first to close out the inning having only allowed 2 runs.

Peralta got past a leadoff baserunner in the second but the Brewres could not turn 4 hits in the first 3 innings into any runs. In the bottom of the 4th, Gerardo Parra hit a solo home run to right-center.

The Cardinals had opportunities through the middle innings, but no one was able to cash in. Peralta was efficient, and after the 1st held the Cardinals scoreless on 98 total pitches, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks against 3 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn pounded the inner half of the plate, and both pitchers benefitted from an interesting strike zone all night. The most egregious example happened with two outs in the sixth, when Ryan Braun was rung up looking on pitch 6 here (2 and 4 were swinging strikes):

The Brewers popped out 3 consecutive times on 4 pitches in the 7th, when they had Lance Lynn near 100 pitches and had a chance to get him out of the game. The popout party extended into the 8th inning against Pat Neshek, who induced easy flyouts from pinch-hitter Lyle Overbay and Carlos Gomez. Scooter Gennett broke the streak with a strikeout.

Will Smith worked the bottom of the 8th and needed a scoreless frame badly. With an out and runners on first and second, Matt Carpenter laced a shot to left but Parra made an impressive running catch in left (his 3rd fantastic catch of the game). Smith struck out John Jay on a ball in the dirt, and Lucroy scrambled to throw him out and end the inning.

Going in to the bottom half, the Brewers hadn't had a hit since Parra's home run in the 4th or a baserunner since a Gomez walk in the 5th. Lucroy turned the momentum a bit by leading off the frame with a walk. Aramis Ramirez took a pitch off the outside corner for strike 1, and after venting his frustrations a bit came back to lob a hanging 0-2 changeup down the left field line for a double that advanced pinch-runner Hector Gomez to third for Ryan Braun. Braun got jammed on an 0-2 fastball inside and grounded back to Trevor Rosenthal, who got the out at first for an out and held the runners at 2nd and 3rd.

All this set the stage for Matt Clark-- September callup, folk hero, and icon. Clark didn't hit another home run, but got the job done by getting just enough of a ball hit out to left field, and Hector Gomez was able to beat Matt Holliday's throw to the plate with a nice slide. Jean Segura battled to a full count but ended up grounding out to end the inning with 2 runners aboard. The Brewers headed to extras with both Ramirez and Lucroy out of the lineup, having been pulled for pinch runners.

Jonathan Broxton continued his impressive run with the Brewers by tossing an uneventful scoreless ninth. In the 10th, Carlos Gomez punched a 1-out single up the middle but Scooter Gennett and Hector Gomez (in at 3rd for Aramis Ramirez) couldn't cash him in, and Gomez never attempted to take 2nd base. Jeremy Jeffress came on to work the bottom of the 10th and after falling behind 3-0 in the count to Yadier Molina, he came back to work a perfect inning.

With 2 outs in the 11th, Parra came through with a double to left-center. The Cardinals intentionally walked Feared Power Hitter Matt Clark to face Jean Segura, who chopped the first pitch back to the mound to end the threat. Zach Duke faced a string of 3 lefties in the bottom half and got 2 of them out. Brandon Kintzler got Matt Holliday to ground out and send the game to the 12th inning.

With 1 out in the 12th, Carlos Gomez walked and stole second on Kevin Siegrist and Molina. Mark Reynolds pinch hit for Scooter Gennett and ripped a shot to left but Holliday ran it down near the warning track in left center. On the next pitch, Gomez caught the Cardinals napping and he stole 3rd base with Hector Gomez batting. The Gomez combo then teamed up for the go-ahead run when Hector blooped a single over the head of Matt Adams at first base and Carlos made it home easily (which he would not have been able to do from second base).

K-Rod got through the bottom of the 12th, but not without a close call. With 1 out he fell behind Jhonny Peralta 3-0 and grooved 2 straight fastballs down the middle. Peralta hit the second one to the wall in left, but Parra caught it for the out. A flyout from Yadier Molina to Braun in right then ended the game.

The Brewers stay 1.5 back of the Pirates and are back in action tomorrow night against the Cardinals at 7:15.

The Brewers look to bring back their third baseman, if he'll have them.

The Milwaukee Brewers plan to exercise their portion of Aramis Ramirez's mutual option, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the first step in returning Ramirez to the Miller Park infield for 2015.

As the option is mutual, Ramirez does have the ability to decline his side and test the free agent waters. If he does so, he'd be passing on his $14 million salary with the Brewers, which is actually a step down from his 2014 salary of $16 million. The decision was a $10 million one for Milwaukee, though, as declining its side of the option would have incurred a $4 million buyout.

Ramirez had contemplated retirement earlier in the year, but decided over the summer that he wasn't quite ready to hang up his spikes, telling the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt in July:

"I'm going to go for 2,500 (games) so let's see what happens, I'm only 36; I'll be OK. I'm playing past this year, for sure. I don't know how much longer but definitely more years. I'll see where I'm at after the season but I feel good right now. Health is the main thing. My body is telling me I can still play."

As for reading the tea leaves as to what Ramirez will do with his side of the option, it's worth noting his reverence for the culture in Milwaukee, in that same article:

"My family likes it here. I've played a long time. We live an hour and a half away from here, so that helps. It's a good place to play."

While injuries have plagued Ramirez throughout his career, he'll have averaged more than 120 games over his three seasons in Milwaukee, while turning in a combined slash line of .294/.356/.490. That's good for a 846 OPS, and while his 2014 OPS rests at 788 -- an obvious decline -- it still is comfortably better than league average (702 for batters, 716 for third baseman) thanks to a continuing league-wide offensive decline.

If Ramirez does stay in Milwaukee, it would leave Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley as the primary third base targets on the free agent market.

The Mariners have three of this season's best players. They also have some of the worst, which is why they might be on the outside looking in when October rolls around.

This article might be seen as an excuse to put another photo of Endy Chavez in an obscure corner of the internet. By itself, that might be reason enough for creating this post. After all, who else could have made that catch in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS? But this post is about more than Endy Chavez.

A quick look at the batting leaderboards from Fangraphs shows that the Mariners have two players in the top 20. Only the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants can make a similar claim. Also, they have Felix Hernandez, who ranks third in fWAR, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who slots in at 25th. Overall, their pitching staff has the lowest ERA in the major leagues. Yet, they are a game behind the Kansas City Royals in the wild card race with playoff odds of just 34 percent.

What's holding this team back?

First of all, the M's have not been very efficient with the runs they've been given. Their run differential is the fifth best in baseball, but nine teams have a better record. Their hitters have just the 19th best clutch score. Those are rough measures, but the point is that the M's haven't fared overly well given their run differential.

More importantly, the Mariners have given a lot of playing time to very bad baseballers, particularly position players.

Though he's featured in this article, Endy Chavez has not been the worst of this bunch. In fact, he's been exactly replacement level, with a .279/.321/.376 batting line and a 99 wRC+ to go along with subpar outfield defense. For a 36 year-old outfielder whose last +2 win season came in 2006, that's more than the Mariners could have expected.

In sum, the Mariners have nine players who have produced negative fWAR this year. The biggest offender has been designated hitter Corey Hart with -1.3 fWAR. Returning from surgeries on both knees has proven difficult for Hart. In what little time he's spent in the outfield, Hart has been predictably immobile. At the plate he's batting an ugly .196/.267/.313 with just six home runs.

Kendrys Morales, whom the Mariners acquired to replace Hart, has been nearly as bad with a 79 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in 47 games. Sure, enduring an extended layoff after declining the Mariners' qualifying offer set him back, but players who have been injured and missed the first three months of the season have performed much better.

Outfielders Stefen Romero and James Jones have been overmatched in their first taste of big league action. Romero owns a 50 wRC+, and Jones isn't much better with a 68 wRC+. He's the only speed threat on the team, but his .280 on-base percentage isn't enough, even with 25 steals.

Besides those most egregious offenders, there is Justin Smoak, who now owns -0.2 fWAR in over 2200 career plate appearances. He's at -0.3 fWAR this year with a 77 wRC+. John Buck was just a shade below replacement level before being released, and Cole Gillespie found himself in the same position.

While their projections are more favorable, trade deadline acquisitions Austin Jackson and Chris Denorfia have actually been just a hair below replacement level as well. Their situation differs in that they have solid track records. However, with the exception of Morales and Hart, there was no reason to believe these players would be better than replacement level.

The Mariners have high-end talent that matches up with any team in baseball, and should they bring King Felix to the table in a wild card game, their odds are quite favorable. Nevertheless, they might not get to that situation because a lack of depth has dragged them down.

. . .

Stats courtesy ofFangraphs

Chris Moran is a former college baseball player at Wheaton College and current third-year law student at Washington University in St. Louis. He's also an assistant baseball coach at Wash U. In addition to Beyond The Box Score, he contributes at Gammons Daily. He went to his first baseball game at age two. Follow him on Twitter @hangingslurves.

Today's lessons include another tough loss, as well as what it feels like to be dumped.

Yesterday's Results

Cardinals 2, Brewers 0

There were questions about how Mike Fiers would pitch in his next start after Thursday's incident (and Noah even wrote an article asking about it). Mike Fiers quieted those questions early, pitching 5 2/3 innings of no-hit baseball and seven innings total, allowing only two runs (one earned) and three hits. However, a costly "error" in the seventh inning allowed the Cardinals to score a run, and set up their second run to score with the next batter. Meanwhile, despite getting seven hits and two walks off of Adam Wainwright, the Brewers couldn't break through and were held scoreless, allowing the Cardinals to win.

The deals with Huntsville/Biloxi and Brevard County have been renewed, while Nashville is gone.

News finally came out about the PDCs with the current three minor league affiliates yesterday. Both Brevard County and Huntsville/Biloxi agreed to new PDCs, with Huntsville/Biloxi in place until 2018 and Brevard County until 2016. This will help keep both teams stable in those areas for the next two years. With the former Huntsville Stars (new nickname still TBD) set to move to Biloxi next year, the team now has stability on an affiliate following the move. Meanwhile, Brevard County keeps the Brewers as well, maintaining stability there.

Meanwhile, the Triple-A situation for the Brewers is not good. Nashville finally informed the Brewers that they would switch affiliates yesterday, putting the Brewers in a bad situation. Doug Melvin was frustrated by this decision, as it not only was made too late, but also felt like a betrayal after the Brewers had stuck with Nashville through some tough times. Now, by waiting so long, the Brewers only have two options for a new affiliate: Colorado Springs or Fresno. Neither choice is good for the Brewers.

Colorado Springs is in an older facility (built in 1988), is at a higher altitude that could mess with their Triple-A players, and presents travel difficulties for callups. Fresno is in a newer facility (opened in 2003), but is even farther away for travel. Plus, both teams have been affiliated with local MLB affiliates (Fresno with the Giants, Colorado Springs with the Rockies), and both Triple-A teams stand to lose many fans because of this. Sacramento could be in play as well if the Giants decide to reverse course and stay with Fresno, but would present the same challenges as Fresno for the Brewers. Regardless of what happens, it will be a tough situation for the team.

Cram Session

• A report came out yesterday that the Brewers are going to pick up Aramis Ramirez's 2015 option. However, there are several things wrong with that report, and Derek runs down the list of those reasons.
• Despite all of the criticism he has received, Doug Melvin has done a good job with building the team. Jordan took a minute yesterday to appreciate what Doug Melvin has done for the Brewers.
• The Brewers announced details on this winter's Brewers On Deck event yesterday. It is set for Sunday, January 25, and Caitlin Moyer of John & Cait has details on the event.

Division Update

• Pirates 9, Red Sox 1
• Reds 3, Cubs 1

Today's Division Games

• Red Sox (Brandon Workman) @ Pirates (Gerrit Cole) - 6:05 pm
• Dodgers (Zack Greinke) @ Cubs (Tsuyoshi Wada) - 7:05 pm
• Reds have the day off.

Today's Action

The Brewers can still take the series from the Cardinals today in the rubber match of the series. Kyle Lohse will face Shelby Miller in tonight's game. First pitch is at 7:15 pm, and Manny Randhawa of MLB.com has the preview.

While some catchers are better at framing than others and some pitchers are better at exploiting that, we don't necessarily know who to credit. Still, we can determine which batteries have done best overall at getting extra strike calls.

Dave Cameron recently re-raised the issue of how to partition credit for framing between the catcher and pitcher. Knowing one is throwing to a good pitch framer could lead a pitcher to pitch just outside the zone a bit more often (or at the corners, as opposed to throwing a safer strike, in three ball counts). A pitcher with superior command could capitalize on his catcher, and pitchers who angle for more pitch framing opportunities would generate more value for their clubs than an ERA estimator like FIP might lead us to believe.

I am not attempting to rip apart pitcher and catcher from that kind of symbiosis, and I'm not sure either's contribution to framing could live on its own. Nor am I attempting to show which batteries are best at framing. Instead, I was interested to dig in on batteries that have been best at framing this season.

As a counting statistic, Baseball Prospectus's Framing Runs (calculated either by count or by call) naturally favors batteries with more framing chances (at least among the batteries with positive figures). Framing chances are largely dependent on innings pitched, but the correlation isn't perfect. Using chances to create a rate statistic doesn't tell us who the "best framing batteries" were, at least on its own; getting those chances is part of the skill. But looking at "extra strikes" per 100 framing chances yields some interesting results.

To make the corpus of 1847 batteries in the Baseball Prospectus database more manageable, I used a cutoff of 400 framing chances, leaving just 238 batteries. Why 400? It captures all top 30 results for framing runs by count (it also captured 29 of the top 30 results for framing runs by call, leaving out just the Alex Cobb-Jose Molina battery, which ranked 21st despite just 398 chances).

In illustrating his point, Cameron used Lohse as an example for how a pitcher can be partly responsible for good framing outcomes, and the data supports that premise.The pitcher who claimed the top result in extra strikes per 100 framing chances was indeed Kyle Lohse, but not with Jonathan Lucroy as his batterymate.

Some expected matches here, but a few surprises, as well. Wilin Rosario has a garbage reputation as a pitch framer, and despite these numbers with Juan Nicasio, Baseball Prospectus has Rosario at exactly zero extra strikes in 6,825 framing chances through September 16 (not solidly negative marks as in previous seasons). That's a glowing recommendation of the command or pitching style of Juan Nicasio.

The top 10 makes the Brewers and Maldonado look good, but how about Eric Stults getting two batteries in the top 10 out of 238? Might not be quite as impressive as what Juan Nicasio has done, as both of Stults's catchers have been quite good at getting extra strikes overall (Grandal, 99 extra strikes in 5073 framing chances; Rivera, 137 in 5792). Still, getting per-100 rates over 4 far surpasses both catchers' overall per-100 rates (Grandal, 1.95; Rivera, 2.37).

The top 10 does not include any of the 51 (of 238) batteries with at least 1,000 framing chances, and if you felt a little uncomfortable with some of the sample sizes above, you're not alone. When examining outliers such as those, the greater range of possible rate outcomes with smaller samples gets magnified. So what does the top 10 look like just for pitchers with over 1,000 chances? All ten of the batteries in the table below rank in the top 30 (of 238):

Big props to the framing tandem of Vogelsong and Posey, who also form the overall battery leader for extra strikes. Posey is no slouch; in addition to Vogelsong, his match with Madison Bumgarner has done well in extra strikes per 100 framing chances, with 2.73, and he has a 1.64 per-100 mark overall this season. Mike Zunino also excels with two pitchers, has positive per-100 marks for the other three batteries that have more than 400 framing chances (Felix Hernandez, 2.34; Fernando Rodney, 1.95; Chris Young, 0.51), and looks great overall (1.69 extra strikes per 100 framing chances).

How about Johnny Cueto? Brayan Pena has a great reputation behind the plate, and Cueto has clearly benefited from having Pena as more or less a personal catcher. But consider this: Pena's extra strikes numbers have actually been quite a bit worse when he's caught other pitchers. With Cueto, Pena has 49.5 extra strikes in 1415 chances; subtract that from Pena's overall numbers, and you get without-Cueto totals of -8.5 extra strikes in 1777 chances. Can we say that Cueto deserves some of the credit for his 7+ framing runs this season with Pena, then? For what it's worth, Cueto's per-100 mark with other catchers this season (384 framing chances) is just 0.08. But considering that Cueto has allowed just 59 ER in 227.2 innings this season, he might deserve more of his 2.33 ERA than his 3.29 FIP might indicate.

With no overlaps on the two top 10 lists, how impressed should we be on how the Brewers have taken six of the 20 spots? Pretty impressed. In fact, let's go ahead and pretend this entire post is about the Brewers — we'll even put in a link to Brew Crew Ball.

Outliers this extreme are often a combination of likely explanations, and for the Brewers to have this much success in pitch framing, we're probably talking about luck or savvy in targeting not just Lucroy but Maldonado; an emphasis on framing; and an emphasis on pitchers who succeed with command as one of their better tools. Milwaukee does not lead MLB in framing chances; it settles in at 8th in that regard with 11,952, a little closer to 1st (White Sox, 12,652) than to 30th (Giants, 10,858). The Brewers have done really well with extra strikes, however: 2nd, at 274. The Crew also fit in comfortably at second place in both Framing Runs by count (34.4) and Framing Runs by call (40.7).

Wait, second? Eric Stults leads the Padres among pitchers in terms of extra strikes (62.5), but he still co-owns just 17.5% of the extra strikes won by the Padres so far this season. The team's total of extra strikes (356.6) is a whopping 2.33 standard deviations off the mean, and all three of the catchers used by the Padres this season have made contributions. In addition to the 137 extra strikes tallied by Rene Rivera and 99 by Yasmani Grandal, Nick Hundley broke with tradition to put up a slightly positive extra strikes mark (instead of a horrendously negative one). In fact, if we turned our list of 238 batteries with at least 400 framing chances into a list of 875 batteries with at least 100 framing chances, Nick Hundley would co-own the best per-100 extra strikes mark with a ridiculous 9.11.

How about on the other end of things? The very worst battery in terms of extra strikes per 100 chances — 1,000 framing chances or more — is Tom Koehler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (-3.51 extra strikes per 100). 900 chances or more: Nathan Eovaldi and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (-3.91). And back to the 400-chance cutoff we started with: Brad Hand and...drum roll, please...Jarrod Saltalamacchia (-6.63).

Think Jose Fernandez was impressive again this year before succumbing to his UCL tear? He put up mediocre Framing Runs totals with Salty, and in our set of 238 batteries with at least 400 framing chances, Fernandez ranked just 205th in extra strikes per 100 framing chances. But although Henderson Alvarez didn't do much worse than Fernandez, taking Salty's five entrants as a group makes Fernandez look good again. Unless Salty was dealt an incredibly terrible staff of pitchers command-wise (which might be partly true), we might infer that Fernandez isn't to blame for his native framing numbers. Had Fernandez been given a league-average framer, would he have had even more success?

As noted above, by using framing chances as the denominator in making up a rate statistic for extra strikes, we don't give ourselves a complete picture on who the best framing tandems have been this season. Some of the framing-effectiveness-proof is in the chances pudding, insofar as racking up a large number of chances could be largely to the pitcher's credit. But even without accounting for how particular batteries came to have as many chances as they did, it seems clear that some pitchers are better able to capitalize on framing than others.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Ryan P. Morrison is a writer and editor at Beyond The Box Score, and co-author of Inside the 'Zona, a site offering analysis of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Follow him on Twitter: @InsidetheZona.

The Brewers should have won this game, but instead a mental error by Mark Reynolds essentially cost them the game and maybe the season.

Winning Pitcher: Sam Freeman

Losing Pitcher: Jimmy Nelson

Win Expectancy Chart

Boxscore

First inning

The Brewers wasted little time in the first inning. Or rather the Brewers wasted little of the Cardinals' time. Carlos Gomez struck out on 3 pitches. Scooter Gennett lined out on 1 pitch. Jonathan Lucroy grounded out in 3 pitches.

At least the Cardinals responded in a similar fashion, going 3 up 3 down in 11 pitches.

Second Inning

The Brewers went down in order again, but at least they lasted more than 7 pitches this time. Though that was entirely thanks to Gerardo Parra. He saw 6 pitches. It only took 2 pitches per batter to retire Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez.

The Cardinals sent 3 batters to the plate and Lohse sat them down. This time it took a whole 12 pitches! So far so good.

Third Inning

The Brewers sent two September call-ups and Kyle Lohse to the plate. The trio went down in order, but at least they lasted 13 pitches. That was better than the Brewers 1-6 hitters...

Lohse's perfect game ended 2 batters into the inning. After retiring Oscar Taveras, he hit Kolton Wong. Shelby Miller then advanced the runner on a sac bunt. Then Matt Carpenter drew a walk. The mini-crisis was averted after Jon Jay lined out sharply to Aramis Ramirez. After all that Kyle Lohse left the 3rd inning with no-hitter intact having only thrown 39 pitches (which was just 9 more than Shelby Miller for what it's worth).

Fourth Inning

Top of the Brewers order got their second look at Shelby Miller. After going down in 7 pitches the first time up, things had to go better this time around. That's exactly what they did. Carlos Gomez lasted 6 pitches before flying out. Scooter Gennett lasted 7 pitches before flying out. Jonathan Lucroy broke up the no-hitter and the perfect game with his NL record breaking 45th double as a catcher! He's now a double away (as a catcher) from breaking the major league record. He's currently tied with Ivan Rodriguez. Lucroy now has 52 doubles in total on the season and is a double away from tying Lyle Overbay for the franchise doubles record. Aramis Ramirez then crushed the shutout with an RBI single! Ryan Braun kept things going with a single of his own. Gerardo Parra struck out to end the inning, but the Brewers took the 1-0 lead.

After a one pitch fly out to the first batter, Gerardo Parra whiffed on a somewhat tough play and Matt Adams breaks up Lohse's no hitter with a single. Lohse came right back though, inducing an inning ending double play off the bat of Jhonny Peralta.

Fifth Inning

The Brewers sent their September call-ups to the plate for their second look at Shelby Miller. Would they follow suit and do better than last time? Well, one of them would. After lasting 6 pitches the first time up, Matt Clark lasted 1 this time. Only instead of making an out he lined a single. Hector Gomez struck out. Kyle Lohse went up to the plate trying to bunt the runner over. Only he bunted a little too hard giving Shelby Miller the chance to throw the lead runner out. Perhaps he was a little too excited because his throw sailed into center field and everyone was safe. Carlos Gomez chopped one to the shortstop. The Cardinals got the out at second but Gomez beat the relay throw to put runners at the corners for Scooter Gennett. Scooter hit the ball hard, but right at first baseman Matt Adams. Apparently it was a little too hard because Adams has the ball ricochet off his glove and into short right. Clark scores and Gomez makes it all the way to third base with some good heads-up base running. Lucroy hit the ball hard, but right back to Miller who was able to secure the out at first. The Brewers till walked away from an eventful inning with a 2-0 lead.

Kyle Lohse continued cruising again, needing only 9 pitches to retire the Cardinals in order.

Sixth Inning

Aramis Ramirez grounded out quickly to lead off the inning. Ryan Braun then lined sharply off Shelby Miller, literally. It hit him on the lower part of his leg and ricocheted directly over to first base for an easy out. Miller looked in pain at first, but stayed in the game long enough to retire Gerardo Parra on a grounder.

Daniel Descalso led off the inning for the Cardinals as the pinch hitter for Miller. He quickly flew out. Then Kyle Lohse struck out Matt Carpenter. Jon Jay lined a single on the first pitch he saw. Matt Holliday scared me, working the count to 3-1 before he ultimately grounded out to end the inning.

Seventh Inning

The Cardinals fielding woes continued. On a weak grounder to third base, Mark Reynolds (pinch hitting for Matt Clark in response to Randy Choate taking the mound) reached first when the ball went under Matt Carpenter's glove. Choate was immediately replaced with Seth Maness who got three straight outs to end the inning.

Matt Adams led off the inning with long fly ball to right, fielded nicely by Braun who held him to a single. Jhonny Peralta worked a full count and fouled a couple pitches off before finally popping out to shallow center. Yadier Molina then grounded sharply to third base for the inning ending double play.

Eighth Inning

Seth Maness stayed in the game. He retired Gennett and Lucroy before allowing a single to Ramirez. Then Braun hit what has become his patented ground out to shortstop.

Kyle Lohse also returned to the mound in the eighth inning. He started the inning with 79 pitches. Oscar Taveras shot one up the middle for a single. Mike Matheny put in Peter Boujous to run for Taveras. Kolton Wong made my heart skip a beat with a ball crushed to right...but foul. Then he grounded back to Lohse who got the out at second base. Ron Roenicke then removed Lohse for Jonathan Broxton. It was a great outing for Kyle Lohse, perhaps his best of the year all things considered. AJ Pierzynski grounded right to Mark Reynolds. It should have been an inning ending double play, but Reynolds forgot how many outs there were and simply stepped on first base for one out. It felt like a nightmare playing out. Matt Carpenter worked the count 3-0. Then he took a strike and fouled one off to get the count full. The next pitch was ball 4. Jon Jay came to the plate with two runners on. Ball, foul, foul, ball, line drive RBI. Cardinals pull with-in a run. Matt Holliday came to the plate and immediately grounded up the middle. It was a slow roller that Gennett had to charge in on. He attempted to throw the runner out at first. The call was out, but upon review he was safe by a mile. Matt Carpenter never slowed and he actually went home. The Brewers never attempted to make a throw at the plate, but the Brewers caught a huge break. The umpires ruled the runner had to go back to third base and so the run didn't count. It was still 2-1 Brewers. Matt Adams stepped up with bases loaded 2 outs. Ball, foul, ball, ball, foul, foul, ball. Tie ball game. The next batter grounded out, so at least the Brewers didn't find themselves down a run.

Ninth Inning

Trevor Rosenthal took the mound for the Cardinals. He struck out Gerardo Parra. Mark Reynolds popped up for the second out. Hector Gomez grounded out to end the inning.

Jeremy Jeffress took the mound for the Brewers. Yadier Molina led off with a double. Tommy Pham pinch ran for him. Peter Bourjous bunted for a strike out. The Brewers then intentionally walked Kolton Wong to set up the double play. Randal Grichuk pinch hit for the pitcher. He struck out. RRR then put in Will Smith to face the left handed Matt Carpenter. Will Smith got the strike out to send the game into extras.

Tenth Inning

Lyle Overbay pinch hit for the pitcher and drew a walk off Pat Neshek. I'm not sure if Gomez chose to do it himself, or if RRR called it from the dugout, but Carlos went up there bunting. It seemed incredibly stupid as Lyle Overbay just walked on 4 straight pitches. On his second attempt, Carlos popped up for an out. Then Scooter Gennett kept the dream alive with a line drive single, sending Elian Herrera (who was pinch running for Overbay) all the way to third base. One out, runners at the corners for Jonathan Lucroy. He struck out. Two outs, runners at the corners for Aramis Ramirez. He grounded out.

Playing the long game, RRR put in Marco Estrada who has actually been quite excellent in relief. Jon Jay grounded to Hector Gomez for the first out. Matt Holliday popped up for the second out. Matt Adams lined out to end the inning.

Eleventh Inning

The Cardinals put in their own long man, Carlos Martinez. Ryan Braun greeted him with a single to right. No one can tell RRR playing for 1 run isn't a requirement. He had Gerardo Parra go up to bunt the runner over, which he did do. Then somewhat strangely he chose to pinch hit for Mark Reynolds. Khris Davis hit for him and he grounded out, advancing Braun to third. Then even more confusingly, RRR pinch hit Logan Schafer for Hector Gomez. The Cardinals took the confusing cake when they decided to walk Schafer after he drew a 2-0 count. Rickie Weeks then pinch hit for Estrada (who I thought for sure would be in for multiple innings). He was able to draw a walk to load the bases. Gomez came to the plate with no apparent game plan. He swung threw the first pitch and then bunted through the second. Remember, bases were loaded. He then fouled a pitch off before striking out to end the inning.

Brandon Kintzler took over for the Brewers. Jhonny Peralta led off with a single. Tony Cruz came to the plate to bunt. After working a 2-1 count, he pulled back the bunt and lined out to Scooter Gennett. Peralta was running on contact and so Gennett was able to turn the double play. Kintzler ended the inning by inducing a ground ball off the bat of Peter Bourjos.

Twelfth Inning

Scooter Gennett led off the inning with a line out. Jonathan Lucroy lined a single. Aramis Ramirez popped out. A wild pitch sent Lucroy to second base. Ryan Braun worked the count full before striking out on what would have been ball 4. It was about two feet out of the strike zone too.

Zach Duke took the mound and struck out Kolton Wong to start the inning. Xavier Scruggs was able to work the count full before Duke finally struck him out. Matt Carpenter accidentally swung at a pitch and wound up at first on a slow dribbler to third. Jon Jay has crushed lefties this year, but he did not crush one this time. Instead he struck out sending this hellish nightmare to the thirteenth inning.

Thirteenth Inning

Lefty Sam Freeman took over for the Cardinals. Gerardo Parra was entirely over matched, striking out on 3 pitches. Jean Segura last a couple pitches longer but he too looked over matched striking out on a ball in the dirt. Jason Rogers got the first plate appearance of the night. He grounded out.

Jimmy Nelson took over for the Brewers. Jonathan Lucroy took over at first base and Martin Maldonado took over behind the plate. The only position player not involved in this game at this point was catcher Matt Pagnozzi. Matt Holliday led off the inning with a single. Matt Adams grounded into a fielder's choice. Jhonny Peralta lined to Ramirez who pulled his glove up a second too soon. Instead of turning the double play, both runners would be safe. Tony Cruz lined to center to end what is probably the most emotionally crushing loss of the season.

Other notes:

• The Pirates seem unstoppable and the Red Sox suck big time. Down a run to the Pirates in the top of the ninth, the Red Sox were able to get runners at the corners with no out. They put a pinch runner *Jemile Weeks) at third base who made a baserunner error. It was ruled the ball hit him in fair territory and so he was out. Runners then at first and second the next two batters struck out to end the game. The Pirates have won 11 of their last 13 and are now within 2 games of the Giants for the first wild card spot. They remain 2.5 games back of the Cardinals and also go up 3.5 games to the Brewers.

• The Giants did not play today.

Outbreaks of Cruzmania reported throughout Cardinals Nation.

So what's the overarching narrative for this game? Is it Shelby Miller's excellent performance? How Kyle Lohse shut down the Cardinals for 7+ innings? The missed chances? The long slog of an extra inning game that seemed like it might have no end?

Here's what you need to know: The Cardinals won.

The Cardinals won and took 2 games out of 3 in the series and put the Brewers 6 games back, their playoff hopes in serious peril.

Shelby really did look like Good Shelby tonight, mixing in 20 curves with 62 fastballs, and again allowed no walks. He was very efficient through the first three innings and didn't allow a hit until the 4th. That hit was a double by Jonathan Lucroy, who was then driven home by Aramis Ramirez for a Cardinal Killer Combo.

In the 3rd Matt Adamstumbled over the tarp and into the stands, made the catch, held the ball, blew a bubble getting back on his feet, and appeared to be unscathed. Take it easy there, big fella.

The Brewers came up with their second run when Lohse laid down a bunt to move Matt Clark over, but Shelby tried to get the lead runner and threw high and into center field. Then Scooter Gennett (f'n Scooter) hit a grounder that Adams tried to field, but he probably should have let Wong handle. The ball clanked off his glove and deflected away from anyone that could do anything about it. 2-0 Brewers.

In the 6th, Ryan Braun lined a pitch off Shelby's right shin. He was checked by the trainers and allowed to get the final out of the inning, but was then lifted in the bottom half pinch hitter Daniel Descalso.

After that, the bullpen was called on to cover the last three seven innings. Good thing it's September.

In the 8th an Oscar Taveras basehit!, then lifted for the speedy Peter Bourjos. Here Lohse was replaced with Jonathan Broxton. Pinch hitting A.J. Pierzynski grounded to first but Mark Reynoldsapparently forgot how many outs there were and only took the force at first, keeping the inning alive. After a Matt Carpenter walk, Jon Jay singled in the first Cardinals run of the game.

With two on, two out, and just one run down, superclutch Matt Hollidayhit a chopper up the middle, made a mad dive into first and was called out. Play was reviewed and reversed, as Holliday was clearly safe. Carpenter had crossed home but was sent back to third as a result of the review. Now with the bases loaded SMASH! ATOMS!... drew a walk. But the Cardinals had tied the score and had a life.

While Seth Maness took care of the 7th and 8th, Trevor Rosenthal followed suit with a clean and uneventful 9th.

Honestly, after this the game is mostly a haze of missed chances, Mathenaging, and near escapes.

In the 9th Yadier Molina led off with a double, then was replaced on the basepaths by living legend Thomas Pham (I know, he's Tommy Pham. The SBN autolinker thing wants stuffy proper names. Boring.) Bourjos tried sac bunting him to third but failed, striking out on a 0-2 foul bunt. He saw three straight curves, and it looked like the Brewers battery called an audible when they realized he was still bunting down two strikes. Just... awful.

Carlos Martinez pitched 2 innings of his particular brand of exhilarating ball that is sometimes best watched with your eyes covered, peeking through your fingers. He did get a BIG strikeout of Carlos Gomez with bases loaded in the 11th.

The Cardinals finally broke through in the 13th, with singles from Holliday and Jhonny Peralta setting the stage for the big game-ending single from Tony Cruz, because of course T Cruz is just going to take care of business in that spot. No problem.

Source: FanGraphs

For more September baseball madness, tune in tomorrow when John Lackey takes on the RedsDavid Holmberg. First pitch at 7:15 Central.

That is too important for a player to forget, and it caused the Brewers to lose.

The Brewers are desperately hanging on in the NL playoff race, but things will be that much more difficult after Thursday night thanks to first baseman Mark Reynolds. In the bottom of the eighth, with the Brewers up 2-0 over the Cardinals, Reynolds forgot that there was only one out, and missed an opportunity for an inning-ending double play.

Kolten Wong would end up safe at second because no one tried to make it otherwise, giving the Cardinals a man in scoring position with two outs. You can probably guess what happened next, but just in case you're not aware how Cardinals' Magic works:

• Matt Carpenter walked, giving the Cardinals runners at first and second with two outs
• Jon Jay singled, driving in Wong to make it 2-1 Brewers.
• The Cardinals challenged a call on the field to turn an out into a Matt Holliday infield single that loaded the bases
• Jonathan Broxton, who should have been out of the inning after his first pitch, walked Matt Adams to tie the game.
• The Cardinals won 3-2 in extra innings.

All of this because Mark Reynolds forgot how many outs there were after a pitching change. It cost the Brewers the game, the series, and dropped them another game back of the Pirates in the wild card standings. Uh, get 'em next time, I guess?

Trevor Rosenthal has had a relatively inconsistent 2014 season. Let's take a look at some PITCHF/x data and see what we can find out.

After accumulating 2.2 fWAR in the regular season and then throwing 11 and 2/3 postseason innings without allowing a single earned run in 2013, expectations were extremely high for Trevor Rosenthal this season. Well, as Michael Baumann noted in this somewhat controversial piece for Grantland, "Closer Trevor Rosenthal hasn't quite lived up to expectations." Given the majority of expectations were probably unfair for a 24-year-old pitcher entering just his second full season as a big leaguer, I guess Baumann is not necessarily wrong. However, despite having up-and-down periods scattered throughout 2014, bottom line statistics (see below) show that though this season has been a significant drop-off from 2013, it should not be viewed as the obvious negative Baumann portrayed it to be.

Though the bottom-line numbers are good and his FIP is actually estimated as "excellent" per Fangraphs, no one can deny the disparity to the numbers he produced in 2013 (34.7 K%, 6.4 BB%, 2.63 ERA, 1.91 FIP). Plus, his month-to-month consistency has been lacking (i.e. a very poor August sandwiched by a solid July and September), something he did not have to worry about last season. Thus, what has been different for Rosenthal in 2014?

One theory behind Rosenthal's inconsistent 2014 performance has been brought up in VEB comment threads on I believe two separate occasions, and it was even included in the form of this fanshot. Chris O'Leary (also known as thepainguy, VEB member since 2008) believes that "part of the problem is that he has been throwing a cutter"—conveniently classified by Chris as "Accidental Cutter Syndrome." Chris studies baseball mechanics (both pitching and hitting) much more than I do. He has gathered enough evidence and performed enough case studies on mechanics that he is able to run his own website dedicated solely to this type of subject matter. Thus, when he hypothesizes something related to mechanics, especially on multiple occasions, I tend to take notice.

Yet, I didn't just blindly take his word for it on this particular occasion, especially because BrooksBaseball (specifically Harry Pavlidis) has yet to classify a single fastball from Rosenthal as a cutter in his major league career. With PITCHF/x data readily available, I did some pretty intense data collection on Rosenthal fastballs, and the following table includes what I came up with. First, to make sure everyone is on the same page, glove-side run from a right-handed pitcher is synonymous with cutter movement. Arm-side run from a right-handed pitcher (also known as tailing action) is commonly achieved on fourseam fastballs (slightly), twoseam fastballs, and changeups.

As you can see, Rosenthal has thrown 87 fastballs with glove-side run in 2014, compared to 842 with arm-side run. Given his fastball averages 1.73 inches of arm-side run (tailing action), the fact that 90.6% of his fastballs move in that direction is not surprising. In the middle of a discussion spurred by Rosenthal's blown save (six on the season) on Tuesday night against the Brewers, Chris reasonably responded to Ben, "You're not going to see [the reasoning behind Rosenthal's inconsistency] by looking at averages. It's only going to stand out by going pitch by pitch." Thus, this is exactly why I took the time to manually look at every single Rosenthal outing, pitch by pitch, from 2014 for the data included in the table above. For perspective, Rosenthal's arm-side run percentage was 92% in April 2013 and 94.6% in his dominant October 2013. Though both are slightly higher than his percentage in 2014, it is difficult to determine whether or not this is significant.

Another thing Chris brought up was that the times he picked up on Rosenthal's cutter arm action (i.e. following through on the outside of the ball, instead of through the ball), Trevor had a decrease in command and velocity. For this post, I am not going to look at command because there are far too many variables that go into that (including his off-speed pitches), but I did look at fastball velocity. In appearances in which Rosenthal threw at least three fastballs with glove-side run (13 total), his fastball velocity averaged 98.09 MPH and topped out at 99.6 MPH. Thus, even when Rosenthal was struggling to repeat a consistent, through-the-ball release of his fastball, data shows it didn't negatively affect his overall velocity.

Thus, 153 games into the 2014 season, we have seen some flashes of "2013 Rosenthal," but we have also seen numerous instances where he looks like he just cannot find the strike zone. After pretty extensive data review, I am pretty confident that "Accidental Cutter Syndrome" is not what ails Rosenthal's consistency. I'm not so sure the often-brought-up "drop" in velocity can be blamed either—check out his average fastball velocities, month-by-month, dating back to the beginning of last season. Instead, I believe Rosenthal is merely slumping at times, not abnormal for a 24-year-old sophomore big leaguer. It doesn't help that he has walked the first batter he has faced seven times and the first batter of an inning eight times in 2014. One thing I am certain about, though, is that Rosenthal will play an integral role in the final regular season push, and if the Cardinals intend on making a deep run in the playoffs, they'll need him shutting down game after game after game, just like he did in October 2013.

Credit to BrooksBaseball, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference for the data used in this post.

Today's lessons include disappointment as the Brewers hopes grow dimmer and dimmer. Also, there's a children's book about a dog somewhere in there.

Yesterday's Results

Cardinals 3, Brewers 2

It was a crushing blow to what hope we had left last night. The Brewers put together a 2-0 lead and that seemed to be enough for a while, but a mental error by Mark Reynolds allowed the Cardinals to get back into the game, and Aramis Ramirez played a ball wrong to set up the winning hit for the Cardinals.

Cram Session

• The Brewers officially announced a two-year deal with the Colorado Springs Sky Sox yesterday, after all of the other Triple-A teams had made their arrangements with MLB teams. Earlier this morning, I posted some quick facts about the team.
• The Brewer Nation blog also has some more details about the Colorado Springs Sky Sox.
• With his double last night, Jonathan Lucroy tied the record for doubles as a catcher in a season with 45.
• The new children's book about Hank the Ballpark Pup went on sale yesterday, and the first people at the team store got a free copy of the book and a chance to meet Hank. Caitlin Moyer has some details on the book and the event.
• The Brewers re-signed Shawn Zarranga to a minor-league deal yesterday. He will play in the Arizona Fall League, and received an invitation to spring training.
• Reviewing the Brew continued their series on the top farm teams in Brewers history with the 1972 Evansville Triplets.

Division Update

• Pirates 3, Red Sox 2
• Dodgers 8, Cubs 4
• Reds had the day off.

This Weekend's Division Games

• Reds @ Cardinals
  Friday: David Holmberg vs. John Lackey - 7:15 pm
  Saturday: Mike Leake vs. Michael Wacha - 6:15 pm
  Sunday: Alfredo Simon vs. Lance Lynn - 7:05 pm
• Dodgers @ Cubs
  Friday: Clayton Kershaw vs. Edwin Jackson - 1:20 pm
  Saturday: Roberton Hernandez vs. Felix Doubront - 12:05 pm
  Sunday: Dan Haren vs. Jacob Turner - 1:20 pm

This Weekend's Action

The situation is simple for the Brewers right now. Anything less than a sweep against the red-hot Pirates in Pittsburgh basically ends the Brewers chances at the playoffs. Here are the starting matchups for the weekend:

Friday: Yovani Gallardo vs. Jeff Locke - 6:05 pm
Saturday: Matt Garza vs. Edinson Volquez - 6:05 pm
Sunday: Wily Peralta vs. TBD - 12:35 pm

The St. Louis Cardinals look to complete their sweep of the Cincinnati Reds tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, the team's final appearance on ESPN this season. If successful, the team will improve to 20 games over the .500 mark, and at minimum, reduce their magic number to four (three if the Brewers win again). Well, as you may recall from way back in May, I had a chat with Buster Olney prior to the Cardinals taking on the Pirates on Sunday Night Baseball, and in a similar situation, I was able to talk baseball with Manny Acta in between his appearances on ESPN. Here is what he had to say:

Viva El Birdos: How do you see the Cardinals doing down the stretch? Specifically, do you think the trade deadline moves (especially John Lackey) will make an impact on the team’s success?

Manny Acta: I think so. Those guys always make smart decisions over there. The only downfall they had as a team has been their lack of power, and they’re picking it up as of late with Holliday hitting for power. I do think that they’re a team that with the experience they've had in the past and the way they play the game, especially defensively, gives them a chance, not only in the next seven games, but going forward in the playoffs as well.

VEB: The Pirates have been playing great baseball of late, do you see the Cardinals holding on to win the division, or do you see the division being decided in the final days of the regular season?

MA: I see [the Cardinals] holding on to it. They’re playing good baseball right now, and they’re swinging the bat better, especially for power. When you have a pitching staff like they have and a guy like Waino that can stop any type of losing streak every five days, I see them holding on to it.

VEB: As a very quick aside: The Cubs have a lot of good prospects. At Viva El Birdos, we’ve talked a lot about these prospects and frankly, many of us miss the Cubs being good. Do you think the Cubs can be "good" next year or do you feel it is still a few years down the road for them to have a real impact in the National League Central?

MA: I don’t think they’re going to be ready to take over the division next year. They’ll probably be a good club that is going to impact everything in 2016, though. The position players that they’re bringing up have shown to be guys that are probably going to live up to all the expectations and probably even more. They’re very athletic and gifted. My question with them will be the pitching staff. They do need to get a pitching staff in place that is going to back up those guys. They’re going in the right direction, but still, pitching is everything. We’ve seen that. You could put as many good prospects or position players on the field, but if you don’t pitch and catch a ball, at the end of the day, you fall short. I think they’re going to be an impact next year, but not in a way to take over or to fight the Cardinals or Pittsburgh for the top spot.

VEB: What are your thoughts on Oscar Taveras and the fact that he was heralded as one of the best prospects in baseball yet has had a tough go of it so far in the big leagues? Do you see him having an impact down the stretch and into the playoffs, or do you feel like he’s going to need a full off-season under his belt to get himself going?

MA: I’ve seen him in Winter Ball, and I do think he’s going to be a very good hitter at the big league level. Right now, it’s really tough for him because a lot of guys are taking a little bit longer to adjust to the major leagues, and I don’t think that the Cardinals are going to be putting all the eggs in the Taveras basket for the remaining games. That being said, here’s your lesson: Regardless of what he’s going through right now, I’ve seen him play in Winter Ball, and he just might still make an impact this season (let's all make a mental note of this). I just think that they’re probably going to go with a more veteran lineup on an everyday basis through the end of the season.

VEB: Based on the expectations for the Cardinals going into the year and based on where they are now, would you consider the Cardinals, at this point, to have lived up to their expectations or do you think that they’ve been a little bit of a let-down?

MA: It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. At the end of the day, you just want to be in the playoffs, and it looks like they are going to be in the playoffs and win their division, so I think they have met the expectations. Did they look like they were dragging a little bit for the first couple of months? Yes, but it’s a long season—162 games—and we all knew they had the pitching to do it. A lot of times the offense was just not going anywhere and the injury to Molina didn’t help them, but at the end of the day, they’ll make the playoffs. That’s the main thing, so I think they’re well on their way to meeting the expectations.

VEB: 2012 was your last year as a manager. Do you ever plan on returning to the dugout? Every day, when you wake up, do you miss that competitive edge you used to have (as manager)?

MA: Well, I absolutely want to return to the dugout as a manager. That’s my passion. That’s what I love to do, but right now, I’m busy doing two jobs—not only here at ESPN, but I also work as a GM in Winter Ball, and that competitive edge is being filled out like that. The fact that I can put a club together and go through the highs and lows in Winter Ball kind of helps me keep that competitive edge. So, I am waiting patiently. I have plenty of time to wait, and hopefully I’ll be managing down the road.

I thank Manny for taking the time to speak with me for Viva El Birdos and hope to see him return to a dugout as a big league manager very soon. You can find him on Twitter: @MannyActa14.

Today's lessons include praise for the pitching and shame for the hitting as we recap a disappointing weekend.

This Weekend's Results

Pirates 4, Brewers 2
Brewers 1, Pirates 0
Pirates 1, Brewers 0

In a do-or-die weekend series, all the Brewers offense could put together was 3 runs. That's it. We could talk about the reasons why the offense couldn't put up more runs than that (and I expect there will be a conversation about it in the comments). However, the bottom line is that in the biggest series of the season, the offense just couldn't pull anything together. In the last 22 innings of the series, the Brewers scored a total of 1 run. They should have been swept this weekend, had it not been for a stellar pitching performance on Saturday. On the plus side, the Brewers pitchers held the Pirates to one run in the last 18 innings. The pitching has been doing very well on this road trip. If only the offense was there was well to back it up.

Cram Session

Pitching Notes

• In Saturday's game, Matt Garza was ejected for hitting Andrew McCutchen with a pitch twice in the game. Ron Roenicke was also ejected as the benches had been warned.
• On Sunday, Jonathan Lucroy responded to critics saying that he had called for McCutchen to get hit. Bottom line: Lucroy doesn't call for those.
• Adam McCalvy notes that with his save on Saturday, Francisco Rodriguez moved into a tie for 10th on the all-time saves list.
• The pitching staff has put together one of the best seasons in the last twenty years. McCalvy looks at the pitching staff and what they have done this year. (Of note in this article: He mentions that Gallardo's option is "all but certain" to be picked up.)

Other Notes

• Mark Reynolds made a big mistake in Thursday night's game against the Cardinals. However, Jonathan Judge of Disciples of Uecker says that Ron Roenicke made an even bigger mistake in that inning.
• Lyle Overbay knows that his doubles record is going to call soon. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel gets Overbay's take on why Lucroy has been so successful.
• ESPN The Magazine released their annual fan satisfaction rankings, and the Brewers placed fourth out of the thirty MLB teams. Caitlin Moyer has further details on the Brewers ranking.
• Rickie Weeks is in his final days with the Brewers. Tom Haudricourt looks at how Weeks is approaching these final days and what he will do next season. Included here is a look at Wei-Chung Wang's season and the real reasons Nashville dumped the Brewers as a Triple-A affiliate.

Minor League Update

• Brad Krause of Miller Park Prospects reviews the season for the 2014 Helena Brewers.

Division Update

• Reds @ Cardinals
  Friday:Cardinals 2, Reds 1
  Saturday:Cardinals 8, Reds 4
  Sunday:Reds 7, Cardinals 2
• Dodgers @ Cubs
  Friday:Dodgers 14, Cubs 5
  Saturday:Cubs 8, Dodgers 7
  Sunday:Dodgers 8, Cubs 5

Today's Division Games

• Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) @ Cubs (Travis Wood) - 7:05 pm
• Pirates (Francisco Liriano) @ Braves (Aaron Harang) - 6:10 pm
• Reds have the day off.

Today's Action

Unless there is a miracle, at this point all we can do is watch the Brewers play out the last six games of the regular season. Mercifully, we get a day off from that today, as the Brewers have their last off-day of the season.

Last homestand, last chance to bring some goodwill to the fine people of Cincinnati.

Johnny Cueto will take his turn, in what looks to be his second to last game of the year. His Cy Young candidacy has taken a bit of a stutter, but with a couple more good performances he may be able to make it more interesting.

He'll face Mike Fiers for Milwaukee.

Go Reds.

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link.

Cy Cueto did what Cy Cueto does.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

If it feels like Johnny Cueto has taken home two dozen of these this season, well, that's because he has.  The ace of the Cincinnati Reds was up to his usual tricks against the Milwaukee Brewers this evening, breezing through his NL Central rivals for 8 innings en route to his 19th victory of the season.

Cueto struck out 7 and allowed just 4 hits and a walk, throwing just 97 pitches in the process.  He'll now have a chance to reach 20 wins on the season, as he's scheduled to start the final game of the Reds' season on the 28th against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

CUE-TO, indeed.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Todd Frazier, who doubled as well as blasting dinger number 28 on his season; and Devin Mesoraco, who launched a dinger of his own.

Key Plays

• Cueto escaped with a scoreless Top of the 1st thanks to some beautiful help from his defense.  Carlos Gomez led off with a single, but he was caught trying to steal 2B.  Scooter Gennett followed by taking a walk, and he reached 2B after a throwing error from Cueto.  That looked to be potentially troubling when Aramis Ramirez singled up the middle two batters later, but Billy Hamilton unleashed a laser towards home that Mesoraco fielded up the 3B line and somehow managed to turn into a sweeping tag at the plate to nab Gennett.
• The bats then staked their ace to a two-run lead in the Bottom of the 1st, as both Frazier and Mesoraco poked solo dingers back to back, with Frazier's just clearing the wall in CF and Devin's landing just beyond the LF wall.  Reds led, 2-0.
• Cueto promptly sat down the next bajillion Brewers he faced, carving through the next four innings like a hot piece of pumpkin pie.  His only blemish came in the Top of the 6th, when Gomez mashed a line drive solo dinger that just cleared both the CF wall and a leaping Hamilton.  Reds led, 2-1.
• The Reds tacked on another run in the Bottom of the 8th to put some breathing room between them and the Beermakers.  Brayan Pena led off with a pinch-hit double and was lifted in favor of the speedy Yorman Rodriguez, who then moved to 3B on a successful sac bunt from Hamilton.  Then Jason Bourgeois boozewah'd a single to RF to score Ourman, giving Aroldis Chapman a two-run cushion in the Top of the 9th.  Chapman was a bit erratic, but he managed to escape with the save despite allowing a pair of Brewers to reach, and that was that.  Reds win, 3-1!

Justin Turner and the Dodgers got the best of Madison Bumgarner and the Giants, giving L.A. the opportunity to clinch the NL West on Wednesday.

The Dodgers reduced their magic number to clinch the National League West to one with a 4-2 victory over the Giants on Tuesday.

Zack Greinke allowed a two-run homer to Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner but otherwise flummoxed opposing hitters, allowing only six hits and notching five strikeouts in eight innings. Greinke received plenty of run support from Justin Turner and Matt Kemp. The former hit a pair of solo homers against Bumgarner and the latter added a two-run shot in the first inning, giving the Dodgers an early three-run lead.

Los Angeles can clinch the division on Wednesday, and its chances of doing so are pretty good with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw enters the game leading baseball in ERA (1.80) and strikeouts per nine innings (10.8).

The Giants, meanwhile, can still clinch a postseason berth, even if they lose on Wednesday. The Brewers have to win out to force a play-in game, while the Giants would have to lose the rest of their contests.

American League

National League

Notables

• In addition to pulling closer to clinching their division, the Dodgers accomplished a rather surprising feat:

Dodgers have 90-wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1977-78.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 24, 2014

• The Rockies and Padres are both very much out of the postseason race, but that doesn't make this catch by Colorado outfielder Brandon Barnes any less spectacular:

Today's lessons include dreaming about the impossible and facing reality.

Yesterday's Results

Reds 3, Brewers 1

The story is the same as it has been multiple times in the last few weeks. The Brewers fell behind early, and while they took a shot or two at finding some offense, they were held in check. Carlos Gomez did get them one run on a solo home run, but that was all the Brewers offense could manage. Once again, Mike Fiers gave the Brewers a good start, pitching five innings and allowing two runs, but the Brewers couldn't back him up with run support.

Cram Session

From BCB

• With the Brewers nearly out of playoff contention, Noah argues that the Brewers should start Matt Clark and Jason Rogers for the remaining games of the season.
• Meanwhile, Noah also says that while the chances are near dead, it doesn't hurt to dream about the one-in-a-million shot that could happen.
• Prior to yesterday's game, Derek previewed the Brewers-Reds series.

Other Notes

• The Brewers officially began their search for a new director of scouting yesterday. They are mainly looking at internal candidates, but plan to look at a few external as well.
• AK of Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball looks at the decline in the Brewers offense, and comes to a conclusion on what must happen for the offense to improve.
• With his HBP last night, Plunk Everyone notes that Carlos Gomez is the 5th Brewer to get hit by at least 19 pitches in a season.
• This weekend is Fan Appreciation Weekend at Miller Park. Caitlin Moyer has some details on the events planned for the weekend.

Division Update

• Cubs 4, Cardinals 3
• Pirates 3, Braves 2

Today's Division Games

• Cardinals (John Lackey) @ Cubs (Jake Arrieta) - 7:05 pm
• Pirates (Jeff Locke) @ Braves (Julio Teheran) - 6:10 pm

Today's Action

While technically still alive, the Brewers are playing out the last five games of the season right now. The march to the end continues against the Reds today, with Kyle Lohse facing Daniel Corcino. First pitch is at 6:10 pm, and Manny Randhawa of MLB.com has the preview.