The Brewers offense struggled again, making 3 outs on the basepaths in a tough loss to the Phillies.

W: Hamels, 3-5

L: Estrada, 7-6

HR: Utley (7)

WPA MVP: Braun, .165; LVP: Gomez, -.226

Box

Fangraphs WPA

The Brewers put leadoff baserunners on in 6 out of the 9 innings tonight but only managed to score twice, thanks in part to 3 bad outs on the basepaths. Unfortunately, Marco Estrada gave up more than 2 runs runs on the night, so the Brewers lost to the Phillies (who came in having lost 9 of their last 10).

Estrada had a start similar to those we have been used to from him this year-- it featured him allowing a home run, striking people out but generally looking shaky, but coming away with a start that left his team in the game. He gave up a two-run homer to Chase Utley in the first inning and then was in an out of trouble through his five innings. Ryan Howard drove in the Phillies 3rd run in the top of the 3rd inning. In the top of the 5th, with the Brewers still down 3-0, Estrada walked Utley and Howard with 1 out to load the bases. Disaster was averted when Marlon Byrd hit a ground ball down the left field line that Aramis Ramirez made a phenomenal play on, throwing out Byrd on one hop to end the inning. Estrada finished with 5 innings, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts.

After Estrada and the Brewers escaped the top of the 5th inning, in the bottom half the Brewers finally cashed in with runners on base. Among other missed opportunities, Carlos Gomez led off the 2nd inning with a double but was picked off second with 1 out. In the bottom half of the fifth, Khris Davis singled, Mark Reynolds reached on an error, and Jean Segura singled to load the bases. Jeff Bianchi pinch hit for Estrada and punched the first pitch of the at-bat from Hamels into right, driving in two runs. Unfortunately Segura made a poor, delayed decision to head to 3rd base and was easily gunned down to slow the rally.

Two of the Brewers 17 lefthanders in the bullpen shut down the Phillies in the 6th and 7th innings. In the bottom of the 7th the Brewers threatened again. Davis led off with a 4-pitch walk against Hamels. Mark Reynolds hooked a home run-length foul ball down the left field line that could not have missed the pole by more than a few feet, but eventually struck out. Jean Segura then battled Hamels with a 10 pitch at-bat that ended with a single to right. Martin Maldonado pinch hit in the pitchers spot and struck out on 8 pitches, but got Hamels out of the game. Righty Ken Giles came on to face Rickie Weeks (and notably not Scooter Gennett, who was still available on the bench). Weeks hit a long flyball to center that Ben Revere tracked down on the warning track to end the inning.

After Rob Wooten dealt with the Phillies in the top of the 8th, Ryan Braun fought through his lower back injury to smoke a double into the gap in left center. He hobbled into second base and was replaced by Logan Schafer. He proceeded to immediately TOOTBLAN, for the third of the night by the Brewers, by trying to advance to 3rd base on a ground ball in front of him to short. Giles struck out Gomez for the second out and got Ramirez to ground out to short to end the inning.

Wooten came back out to battle through a scoreless top of the ninth, but Jonathan Papelbon had no problems with the bottom of the order in the bottom half of the ninth and breezed his way to a save and a Phillies win.

To hear Gregg Zaun spin it, it would appear that the Blue Jays are out to lunch when it comes to playing "fundamental baseball". With the team struggling it's an appealing narrative, but it's not a true one.

Gregg Zaun drives me absolutely nuts as an analyst.

He may well be an absolutely unbelievable human being, but I simply can't abide by his analysis of the game of baseball. I realize I am not alone in this point of view. Alternatively, I'm also not necessarily in an overwhelming majority either. Zaun is a divisive figure. Some love him, some hate him. That, along with questionable sartorial decision making, is kind of his shtick.

One of the things that the former catcher is always harping on, especially when the Jays are losing more games than they win, is the way they fail to play "fundamental baseball". A recent instance of this that springs to mind is a rant that he went on following the Blue Jays' win over the Brewers when both Darin Mastroianni and Anthony Gose failed to lay down bunts late in the game.

Admittedly, that was frustrating to watch. However, it is also the sort of thing that sometimes happens. Bunting is not automatically successful. Gregg Zaun did not seem to understand this fact and on Blue Jays Central proceeded to go on a tirade of sorts where he described bunting as "extremely easy" and waxed poetic on how shameful it was that the Jays couldn't bunt.

I wish I had an exact transcript to present for you and dissect, but the reality is that no one really PVRs Blue Jays Central, and such things are unlikely to wind up on YouTube. The following tweet is the closest there is to evidence of Zaun's rant that still exists:

Completely agree with @greggzaun about bunting being easy.I've always been able to, my nine year old son can.MLB players all should be able!

— Robert (@Mitchell_Astros) July 4, 2014

Zaun proceeded to re-tweet this, because of course the agreement of renowned bunting guru @Mitchell_Astros is all you really need to prove a point.

Here's the problem. Bunting isn't extremely easy, or that easy at all in fact. While it is harder to hit a home run, it's not a walk in the park either. MLB players, especially those like Mastroianni and Gose who have good speed and questionable bats, should be able to execute sac bunts most of the time. However, the fact they won't always succeed shouldn't be a surprise or an outrage.

The following table shows how the Jays have done laying down the sacrifice bunt, compared to league average, as well as their harshest critic, Gregg Zaun.

I realize I am in danger of pulling a J.P. Arencibia here by criticizing Zaun as a player. I don't think that someone has to be a good player, or a player at all, to analyze baseball well. In fact, I think far too often networks lean on former players who have nothing to say because they are household names and have automatic credibility with casual fans.

All of that being said, if Gregg Zaun is going to describe bunting as extremely easy I do think it is fair to point out that this is something he almost never did as a player, and was actually less successful with than the team he is criticizing. Even if Zaun sees himself as an expert on the topic (as Sportsnet apparently does) the reality is that this is something that really wasn't a factor in his playing career. His insight here does not come from a wealth of priceless experience, it is simply an opinion.

As mentioned above, when it comes to Zaun's opinions you can count on him to have one on whether the Jays are playing fundamental baseball. I don't want to put words in his mouth, but his prevailing notion is that they do not. I decided it would be interesting to see whether that notion was valid or not.

The problem is that "fundamental baseball" is a tricky thing to define, and as such to quantify. Luckily, Baseball-Reference has a group of statistics they track entitled "Situational Hitting" which includes staying out of double plays, advancing runners, getting RBIs with a runner on third and less than one out. In short, everything that analysts tend to describe as "the fundamentals", at least offensively.

The table below shows how the Jays have fared in these categories in 2014:

While there will be individual instances where the Jays make basic blunders or fail to execute on plays they should make, this is not a more significant issue for them than other teams. There will be times when opportunities slip through this team's fingers, but that happens to everyone.

The Blue Jays are scuffling right now, and when teams don't win it's easy for analysts to fall into the trap of saying the team "isn't doing the little things it takes to win" or "playing the game the right way".  For the Jays that simply isn't the crux of the issue.

At the moment this team only really needs one thing to get on track: some runs.

Today's lessons include Kyle Lohse's All-Star chances, international money, and power rankings.

Yesterday's Results

Phillies 3, Brewers 2

Marco Estrada had another rough start last night. He started the night out by giving up a two-run home run to Chase Utley, then struggled through a total of five innings. The Brewers offense struggled again as well, only managing to put up two runs. They had plenty of chances to score, but could never get anything else going as they lost their sixth game in their last seven.

Kyle Lohse still has a chance to make the All-Star team.

While Kyle Lohse didn't make the All-Star team on Sunday, he still has a chance to be a replacement pitcher on the team. A few pitchers always drop from the team each year, meaning he could still be a replacement. Yesterday, Noah looked at the chances of Lohse being named as a replacement. There's a lot of competition among pitchers this year, and it could be a long shot to make the team. However, there's always a chance it could happen.

The Brewers acquired more money in the international signing pool.

The Brewers still have not announced the Gilbert Lara signing, and it appears that the Brewers are trying to gain some cap space to avoid penalties. Yesterday, they acquired some space, trading low-A reliever Rodolfo Fernandez to the Athletics for the bonus at the 57th slot. It doesn't cover the whole difference between the slot and Lara's contract, but it will get them into a lower penalty range at least. They may try to acquire more money through another trade, but for now at least they have more money.

Cram Session

More from BCB

• Derek put together a preview of the Phillies series.
• Kyle started a new tracker on BCB last night, tracking the historical rate that Marco Estrada is giving up home runs.
• More trade rumors are coming out, and the most recent ones revolve around Jake Peavy from the Red Sox.
• SB Nation has a new sponsorship with FanDuel, who is debuting their new baseball game.

Power Rankings

• MLB.com has the Brewers at #3.
• ESPN dropped the Brewers one spot to #3
• Sports Illustrated put the Brewers at #4.
• FOX Sports placed the Brewers at #5.

Other Notes

• Scott Lindholm of Beyond the Box Score looked at the third base position around baseball, noting Aramis Ramirez is worth what the Brewers are paying him.
• Adam Weiser of Disciples of Uecker breaks down the current state of the Brewers right-handed relievers.
• The Double Clutch at Miller Park is offering Philly Cheesesteaks during the Phillies series.
• The Brewers are adding another all-fan giveaway to the calendar, giving away a Hank beach towel on August 6.
• Here's an interesting idea that could end up at Miller Park one day: Pay-per-ounce self-serve beer stations. They will be at the All-Star Game in Minnesota next week.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• Baseball America released their midseason top 50 prospect list, and Jimmy Nelson came in at #38.

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

• Reds 9, Cubs 3
• Cardinals 2, Pirates 0

Today's Division Games

• Cubs (Travis Wood) @ Reds (TBA) - 1:10 pm
• Cubs (TBA) @ Reds (TBA) - 7:10 pm
• Pirates (Vance Worley) @ Cardinals (Carlos Martinez) - 7:15 pm

Today's Action

The Brewers continue their series against the Phillies tonight at Miller Park. Kyle Kendrick faces off against Wily Peralta in Game 2 of the series. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and MLB.com has the preview.

(Don't forget about Prognostikeggers.)

Marco Estrada looked like a great No. 5 coming into the season. Unfortunately it hasn't worked out that way and now his time in the rotation may be over.

It's well documented that Marco Estrada has been on a historic pace for home runs allowed. While he's been okay in his last three starts, the home run issue has not abated. I've been among his staunchest defenders and even I have to admit it's probably time to move him to the bullpen. After giving up a 2 run home run last night and ultimately getting the loss to one of the worst offenses in baseball last night, the Brewers and Ron Roenicke have admited as much. Tom Haudricourt has more quotes here.

Brewers have a Top 50 prospect

Nelson has parlayed a big year in Triple-A into a huge jump in Baseball America's prospect rankings.

Jimmy Nelson is the Brewers top prospect. He's throwing his best season right now in Triple-A striking out 26.5% of total batters faced, walking 7.4%, has a .177 BAA, .092 WHIP, and a 1.46 ERA/ 2.92 FIP in 111 innings pitched. That's really impressive. It's hard to argue that he wouldn't be a better option than Estrada right now.

I think right now it's only a matter of when the best time to slot him in is. His first opportunity would come on Saturday (his day to pitch) when Marco Estrada is set to face off against Adam Wainwright. Then he would sit until possibly July 22nd which is the 5th game after the All-Star break. Nelson was recently named the AAA-All Star game starter. The Brewers might want to let him pitch that game and then call him up afterward.

The other obstacle is figuring out what to do with Estrada and the bullpen. I hope no one wants the Brewers to outright Estrada entirely. He still has value and could potentially pitch very well out of the bullpen. Opposing batters would only face him once and his fastball would likely tick up a mile or two. The velocity separation between his fastball and other pitches could make all the difference in the world. Take a look at Wade Davis' career for an example of the difference pitching out of the pen versus rotation can make.

Jim Henderson is apparently progressing through his rehab starts more quickly than expected, while the opposite is true for Tyler Thornburg. Henderson is probably still a week or two away so that's not an immediate concern. Regardless, one reliever will have to be moved somewhere in order for Estrada to be put in the bullpen, assuming they don't go with a short bench again.

The obvious candidates are Rob Wooten and Brandon Kintzler. Each has talent, each has struggled at different times, and each has an option. That means either one can be send to Triple-A without being exposed to waivers. Of the two, I think Wooten has been more effective this year. I'm not sure what's been going on with Kintzler, but he did have an injury earlier in the season. Perhaps he could benefit from return to Nashville?

Another potential option is trading Tom Gorzelanny. This is the second time I've brought this up recently, but don't misunderstand me. I'm not trying to say he doesn't have value for this team or that he isn't good. I just think he's expendable considering he's the third real LHP in the pen. I'd be happy to keep him, but it could make sense to move him.

There is also the chance that the Brewers find someone interested in acquiring Marco Estrada himself. It sounds crazy, but he's still a cheap SP option for the back-end of a rotation. The Yankees recently traded for Brandon McCarthy who has been similarly ineffective, though he hasn't given up near as many home runs. If they find a team that believes in Estrada's xFIP (still a poor 4.29) or believes that his HR issue can be fixed or will regress, it's possible the Brewers can get something for him. Perhaps a reliever? I don't know what we might expect.

It's going to be really interesting to see what the Brewers end up doing and when exactly. I think the Brewers wait until after the All-Star break to make any move. It's possible they make some trades over the break and things work themselves out. Remember when Francisco Rodriguez was acquired all of 5 minutes after the AS game ended in 2011? Ultimately, I expect Kintzler or Wooten to get sent down and Estrada moved to the pen. I'm cool with that.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Brewers trade rumors: David Price seems an unlikely possibility
• What we learned: July 8, 2014
• Phillies 3, Brewers 2: TOOTBLAN City
• Marco Estrada Home Run Tracker: July 7, 2014
• Introducing FanDuel

It was ugly from the start. At least the offense woke up?

Losing Pitcher: Wily Peralta

Winning Pitcher: Kyle Kendrick

SV: Jonathan Papelbon

HR: Scooter Gennett (7), Lyle Overbay (4), Mark Reynolds (14); Domonic Brown (6)

Boxscore

Win Expectancy Chart

The game started out much like you'd expect a game to start if you were only looking at the Brewers July record. Wily Peralta got lead-off batter Ben Revere to sharply ground a ball to Jean Segura. He kind of did and ole move and the ball trickled into left allowing Revere to reach base. He'd then take second base on a wild pitch. The next batter grounded out allowing Revere to advance to third. A sac-fly would allow him to score. Peralta got out of the inning with a strikeout to the next batter, but the Phillies were generously gifted a 1-0 lead in the first.

The early lead dissipated as quickly as it appeared. After Carlos Gomez grounded out, Scooter Gennett sent a solo shot to right field tying the game. Jonathan Lucroy singled and then both Aramis Ramirez and Khris Davis drew walks to load the bases for Lyle Overbay who responded by hitting his 5th career grand slam! Going into the second inning the Brewers found themselves with a 5-1 lead.

A sharp grounder to deep shortstop and a weird grounder to third that ricocheted off third and a walk. That's how the first three Phillies batters reached in the second. Koyie Hill grounded to the right side of the infield and it looked like it was going to scoot through but Gennett made a diving grab to stop it. He couldn't get the out, but he likely stopped the Phillies from scoring more than the one run. The pitcher hit a high chopper back to Peralta who was able to get the force out at home. Ben Revere hit a ground rule double to cut the Brewers lead to 5-4. The nightmare did not end there. Jimmy Rollins drew a walk to re-load the bases. Chase Utley gave the Phillies a 6-5 lead with another grounder that found a hole. Peralta got out of the inning without further damage but his night ended there.

The problems continued in the third inning as the Phillies took a 7-5 lead on a solo home run from Domonic Brown. The inning outside of that HR was actually pretty smooth. The fourth inning was Peralta's first 1-2-3 inning of the game.

Peralta was removed from the game in the fifth inning with recording just 1 out after he walked Ryan Howard and gave up a double to Cody Asche. It was the first time a Brewers starter failed to go 5 innings unrelated to an injury. Tom Gorzelanny came into the game, but with runners at second and third, a Dom Brown base hit resulted in 2 more runs scoring.

Brandon Kintzler pitched a clean 1-2-3 sixth inning, highlighted by another great diving stop by Scooter Gennett who was able to get the out this time.

You'll have noticed I haven't written anything about the Brewers offense in a while. Well, it's because they didn't do anything...until the sixth inning that is. Logan Schafer reached on a liner to right and Mark Reynolds brought them both home with his first home run in well over a month bringing the Brewers withing 2 runs. The Brewers made some more noise in the inning, but it was all for naught. Scooter Gennett blooped a single into shallow center just out of the reach of Jimmy Rollins. Then Lucroy was able to line a double just off the right fielder's glove. With runners at second and third Ramirez softly grounded out.

Until that home run by Reynolds, the Brewers had Wei-Chung Wang warming up. Instead it would be Zach Duke for the seventh inning. He retired the Phillies in order.

With the Brewers unable to score in the seventh, Wang did pitch the eighth inning. And you what? The kid did just fine. He retired the Phillies in order, including 1 strikeout.

The Brewers made more noise in the eighth inning. Rickie Weeks pinch hit for Logan Schafer and grounded out. Jeff Bianchi grounded on to the pitcher, but it kicked off his leg and Bianchi reached base. Gomez then bunted for a hit. Gennett lined out to left and then Lucroy ended the threat with a slow roller to SS.

I was hoping Wang would pitch a second inning, but instead it was Francisco Rodriguez for the ninth. He faced one over the minimum and gave the Brewers a chance to come back just down by 2 runs.

Unfortunately the Brewers were no match for Jonathan Papelbon who retired the side in order.

The Brewers look to avoid the series loss tomorrow in game 3 of this 4 game battle. Kyle Lohse takes on Roberto Hernandez. Game time is 7:10 pm CT.

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Brewers "discussing" calling up Jimmy Nelson
• Brewers trade rumors: David Price seems an unlikely possibility
• What we learned: July 8, 2014
• Phillies 3, Brewers 2: TOOTBLAN City
• Marco Estrada Home Run Tracker: July 7, 2014

Today's lessons include Jimmy Nelson, David Price, and more.

Yesterday's Results

Brewers 9, Phillies 7

The Brewers stormed out to a 5-1 lead after the first inning thanks to home runs from Scooter Gennett and Lyle Overbay. Unfortunately, the Phillies responded right away with five runs in the top of the second, and eventually built their lead up to 9-5. The Brewers would rally thanks to a Mark Reynolds home run, but they couldn't close the gap and ended up losing for the seventh time in their last eight games.

Jimmy Nelson may be coming to Milwaukee soon.

The rotation has struggled a little in the past few weeks, and Marco Estrada has been struggling all season. With the Brewers contending, the question is how long they can let Estrada struggle in the rotation. With Jimmy Nelson performing well in Nashville, there have been plenty of people calling for him to join the rotation. Yesterday. prior to the game, some quotes came out from Ron Roenicke saying that they are discussing what to do with Nelson. They have not made a decision to promote Nelson yet, but if Estrada can't turn it around soon, the move could be coming. At this point, it's looking more like a question of when Nelson will be promoted.

The Brewers don't have enough to acquire David Price.

The David Price rumors have been going around lately, and the Brewers have been one of the teams tied to him. Even though he would be a good upgrade for the Brewers, he appears to be way outside of the Brewers price range. Yesterday, Noah looked at why the Brewers couldn't afford him. What it comes down to is prospects, and other teams have offered more than the Brewers have, yet couldn't get him. To even have a chance at Price, the Brewers would probably have to offer some current MLB players in a deal for him. For a contending team, that's not something that they can do.

Cram Session

• Jonathan Lucroy and Matt Garza were named players of the month for the month of June.
• AK of Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball looks at the Brewers and baserunning to see if they are a good or bad team running the bases.
• Meanwhile, on Disciples of Uecker, Ryan Topp also analyzes the Brewers baserunning after Monday night's debacle.
• Do Carlos Gomez and Aramis Ramirez really deserve to start the All-Star game? Ben Tannenbaum of The Brewers Bar thinks that they don't deserve to start.
• Beyond the Box Score released their list of who they would select as reserves for the All-Star game.
• The Brewers have been conservative in recent years with building their team through the minor leagues, and J.P. Breen of Disciples of Uecker wonders if that is hurting their ability to develop a future core of players.
• Should Ron Roenicke be NL Manager of the Year? Mike Bauman of MLB.com makes a case for the Brewers skipper.
• After a story came out about a man suing ESPN for $10 million, Miller Park Drunk came out with a list of 10 things someone could sue the Brewers for.
• Nick Michalski of The Brewers Bar commented on the ESPN cover of Prince Fielder and how men & women are viewed differently for photos like this.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• Jimmy Nelson pitched seven scoreless innings on Monday night for Nashville.
• Jim Henderson is progressing well in his rehab stint, and has been moved up to Double-A Huntsville.
• Jay D of Reviewing the Brew has an update on Johnny Hellweg.

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

• Cardinals 5, Pirates 4
• Reds 4, Cubs 2
• Reds 6, Cubs 5

Today's Division Games

• Cubs (Dallas Beeler) @ Reds (Alfredo Simon) - 6:10 pm
• Pirates (Brandon Cumpton) @ Cardinals (Lance Lynn) - 7:15 pm

Today's Action

The Brewers will try to stop their current skid in game three of their series against the Phillies. Roberto Hernandez will face Kyle Lohse in tonight's game. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Erik Bacharach of MLB.com has the preview.

The Brewers don't necessarily need to ship a prospect to a team out of contention to improve the team at the trade deadline.

At the trade deadline, some teams are "buyers" and some teams are "sellers". The buyers bolster their current team by acquiring veterans for prospects and the sellers trade their veterans for prospects. There are a number of consequences for baseball strategy. Baseball is unique in that the best teams regularly get significantly better about halfway through the year, and the worst teams often get significantly worse. In other sports when you give up a young, talented player for a more productive veteran he is already a member of your team, and likely a contributor in some way (unless he is a future draft pick). Pretty much only in baseball can a team get better without realizing any short-term costs.

GMs like Doug Melvin should consider another type of trade, however. With more teams than ever still sticking around the fringes of competition due to the new Wild Card rules, it's going to be harder to find worthwhile additions from the few teams in straight-up sell mode. Further, the bidding for those scarce players will be higher because any .500ish team thinks they might be capable of making a run.

Like any teams, the Brewers have areas of depth and areas that lack depth. Instead of sending a reasonable prospect for a reserve position player from a "seller", the Brewers would be smart to investigate trading with other contenders (or teams who think they are still contenders) who are looking for middle to back-end relief pitching. There's already a logjam in play, and it's about to get a whole lot more jammed when Jim Henderson and Tyler Thornburg eventually come back.

Beyond the bullpen locks of K-Rod, Will Smith, and Zach Duke (!), the rest of the bullpen is relatively interchangeable, and a few guys out there could net an interesting position player to shore up the depth. There are also intriguing options at AAA that are nowhere near being promoted to the major league roster but could slot into a contending team's pen, such as Mike Fiers or Jeremy Jeffress. They key is finding a team that needs help in relief but has an expendable position player-- potentially someone like the ideal lefty corner outfielder or first baseman with some power. The type of player that could be expected in return would vary significantly by who was made available. Someone like the third Brewer lefty on the depth chart in the bullpen, Tom Gorzelanny, could be very attractive to a fringe contender, and even someone like Kintzler or Wooten could fetch a bench player in return. Then there are more interesting candidates like Fiers (and Estrada) who could be marketed as starters.

The second angle to this is that Jimmy Nelson is quickly forcing the Brewers to make a roster decision. He has utterly dominated at AAA and the Brewers can't pretend they haven't thought about calling him up anymore. Barring an injury, however, there is no room in the bullpen to stash Marco Estrada for starting pitching depth if they are fully committed to the Wei-Chung Experiment. Dangling other excess relievers could be a way to clear up space for Estrada to take a spot in the pen and be available in case an injury knocked out another Brewer starter later.

The Brewers are in a position to make a playoff run but lack the farm system depth to make a huge splash. Turning one of their excess relievers into a bench bat is a clever way to avoid having to bid highly for the assets of the selling teams while improving the Major League team and keeping hold of young prospects for the future. It's an opportunity to get better in the position player department without really hurting the pitching staff all that much, and it doesn't preclude a bigger move to get a late inning reliever, either.

This homestand features a divisional rival and an interleague matchup.

Dates and times:

Rays: August 8 (3:05), August 9 (3:05), August 10 (1:20)

Brewers: August 11 (7:05), August 12 (7:05), August 13 (7:05), August 14 (1:20)

As always, face value only for tickets. If comments to this post are closed, email me and I'll reopen them.

Some teams have interest in Erasmo Ramirez, including the Brewers. His career is at somewhat of a crossroad, and choosing the right path is no easy task.

A year ago, I celebrated the promotion of Erasmo Ramirez, using the headline "Finally, Erasmo." Jeremy Bonderman was booted, Ramirez had been teasing once again in AAA, and as you'll see within, I had dreams of a 2014 rotation that included Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez, Walker, and Hultzen. James Paxton was wildly inconsistent at the time, Danny Hultzen's injury was a mystery, and Ramirez seemed, finally healthy, that he might be ready to reclaim his role as the strike-throwing command master he was back in 2012.

Erasmo quickly reminded us that he wasn't back in form, and despite some positive signs and justified optimism, Ramirez has been a bizarro version of himself this year, walking nearly five batters every 9 innings despite still generating bunches of swing and miss pitches. The command was gone, and while he's stopped walking people in Tacoma, he's still getting hit hard. Ramirez can still throw strikes, but he can no longer throw them consistently in an area that isn't the middle of the plate. Not with this coaching staff, at least. Maybe it's in his head, maybe he isn't fixable. Maybe it's mechanical. At this point, most of the hope for Ramirez is gone, and there's a good chance he's become an afterthought in the organization's plans.

We've really only thought of the Mariners as buyers at this point, using their assets to pry away win-now talent from teams out of contention. But a little blurb in Bob Dutton's morning piece today indicates that other teams have some interest in trying to repair Ramirez.

Several clubs, including Milwaukee, are showing interest in right-hander Erasmo Ramirez, whose next scheduled start is Friday for Tacoma...

Very rarely do you see two winning ballclubs exchange players at the deadline, but in theory, this could work. The Mariners could use a bat, even a low-impact defensively-challenged one, and while the Brewers have been excellent from 1-4 in the rotation, the back end is in flux with Marco Estrada. If the Brewers are indeed interested, among other teams, they're doing exactly what I would suggest the Mariners do in other years -- buy low on a talented pitcher with what would appear to be a reasonable shot to bounce back.

There's no question that Ramirez has talent. He still throws relatively hard, has a devastating change when he can command it, and somewhere inside him has the ability to paint the black instead of paint the red, the latter of which is all he's done lately. I rarely advocate teams selling low, but if there's a mutually beneficial deal here to help the offense, it might be the right move. I'm no longer convinced that Ramirez can be fixed by the Mariners organization, and even if he goes on to settle in as a nice 4/5 type pitcher in another organization, sometimes it's unavoidable. Another coaching staff might have a different approach, or maybe the fresh start reboots his career.

There's no reason to sell him unless the M's get a piece that actually helps them now, but who knows? Perhaps Ramirez has more value around the league than I thought he did. Teams could be as enamored by his 2012 as many of us once were/still are.

Writing this bums me out. I've been a supporter of Erasmo for a long time, and have always believed in his skillset, criminally undervalued because of his size, injuries, and general lack of pedigree. But after watching what he's done this year, this simply isn't the same pitcher that I grew infatuated with several years ago, just like Dustin Ackley isn't the confident, ripping machine he was when he first emerged. Letting go of baseball crushes is hard.

What do you think? Is selling Erasmo Ramirez at the deadline giving up on him, or is it a savvy decision to cut ties while he still has some value? There are excellent arguments both ways, and I'm teetering on the fence. Guide me.

Make up your mind, Phillies. I'm begging you. Be good or be bad. My heart can't take this.

The Phillies are making my brain hurt. That's what they're doing.

In a crisp two hours and 15 minutes, the Phillies beat the Brewers 4-1 for their third straight win. Yeah. That actually happened.

I could talk about the home runs hit by Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Utley's homer was his second in eight plate appearances, after not hitting a home run in his previous eleven thousand. (Look it up.) Rollins' homer snapped an 0-for-20 streak at the plate. Or I could talk about Jonathan Papelbon's 22nd save, his third in as many nights.

But I don't want to talk about those things. They're all boring compared to the absolute gem that Roberto Hernandez tossed tonight. He went eight strong innings, giving up just three measly hits and one lonely run. He struck out three and walked two. This was Hernandez's longest outing of the year, something made possible by his pitch count. He threw just 84 pitches. In eight full innings! That is shockingly, delightfully low. I wish I'd kept track of how many one-pitch outs he had tonight, because there were several. But I was too busy being *dazzled* by his portly prowess on the mound. I didn't think it was possible for Roberto Hernandez to mesmerize, but tonight he did. He Hernandmerized me.

Forget I said that last thing.

"But Liz," I can hear you saying to me in my head. "If Hernandez had only thrown 84 pitches in eight innings, why didn't he go out for the ninth?"

Funny thing about that. I don't know. I have no idea why Ryne Sandberg pulled Hernandez in favor of Papelbon in the ninth. Papelbon had pitched the previous two games. The starter had thrown fewer pitches than he could have ever dreamed. There was a three run cushion. At least let Hernandez go out there and *try* to get an out. Sandberg lets Cole Hamels throw 600 pitches every start and decide if he wants to keep pitching or come out of the game or if he wants just take a shit on the mound. I know Bert hasn't built up that kind of trust, but come on. He was brilliant tonight. He gave the Phillies eight innings of the best baseball he could pitch.

But it was Jonathan Papelbon who took the ninth inning, and he shut down the Brewers once again. Breathe in the air right now. Take a big deep sniff through your nostrils. You can practically smell Papelbon's trade value increasing. Or, you can smell it not going down and staying steady. For his part, Papelbon seems ready to say goodbye.

Jonathan Papelbon indicated his limited no-trade clause would not stand in the way of a trade to a contender this month.

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) July 10, 2014

"Some guys want to stay on a losing team? That's mind-boggling to me," Papelbon said. "I think that's a no-brainer."

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) July 10, 2014

You hear that, teams? Jonathan Papelbon is available immediately, and can be delivered right to your stadium via cannon, trebuchet, giant slingshot, or the fans of Philadelphia can all get together in one place and toss him into the air in your general direction. Free shipping! This is quite the deal! Just give us all your prospects!

If only he wouldn't announce his desire to be traded while simultaneously shitting on Chase Utley for publicly proclaiming his desire to stay in Philadelphia. Burn those bridges, Pappy! Burn 'em good! Of course, statements from these gentlemen can only be taken at face value. Who knows if they actually feel that way. But still... dick move on Papelbon's part.

It still feels so nice to type a winning score into the headline. I mean, I know this is just the eye of yet another hurricane of bad Phillies baseball. But I don't care. I like it.

Source: FanGraphs

Today's lessons include a bullpen move, a different kind of trade, and more.

Yesterday's Results

Phillies 4, Brewers 1

The Brewers couldn't get back on track last night. Kyle Lohse did his best to give the Brewers offense a chance, holding the Phillies to four runs in eight innings. However, the offense fell flat again, managing only one run off of the Phillies.

Marco Estrada should go to the bullpen.

Over the last few weeks, the discussion about moving Marco Estrada to the bullpen has intensified. He's continued to struggle with giving up home runs, and while the results haven't been terrible all of the time, he just hasn't managed to get that home run rate under control. In addition to that, Derek looked at Estrada's splits yesterday and found some trends that would suggest he would be better as a reliever. Estrada tends to perform well when facing batters for the first time, but gets worse as the batting order comes back around. Maybe placing him in the bullpen is the best move for everyone at this point.

The Brewers should look to trade with contenders.

As the trade deadline gets closer, more and more rumors will come out about who is getting traded and who is not. The teams that are selling typically can set their prices for some of the better players, since more teams than ever are turning out to be buyers. Instead of looking to trade with the teams out of the division races, Jordan suggests that the Brewers should look to trade with contenders. Obviously, these trades wouldn't involve such high-profile players, but could involve moving smaller pieces to improve the team. By trading from a surplus area to a team that has a surplus of a Brewers need, they could potentially pull off a trade that wouldn't cost as much and could help strengthen a weaker area of the team.

Cram Session

• Add Erasmo Ramirez to the list of players the Brewers are looking at. Reports came out yesterday that the Brewers are interested in acquiring the Mariners pitcher.
• Two Brewers starters are overperforming on this list: Chris Teeter of Beyond the Box Score looked at the players with the biggest differentials between ERA and FIP.
• Over on Reviewing the Brew, Steven Jewell has a profile of Francisco Rodriguez.
• Jonathan Judge of Disciples of Uecker has a proposal to help the starting rotation: a six-man rotation.
• As the NL Central race gets closer, Sam Clancy of Reviewing the Brew breaks down the race and looks at the current contenders.

Minor League Update

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

• Cardinals 5, Pirates 2
• Reds 4, Cubs 1

Today's Division Games

• Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) @ Reds (Homer Bailey) - 11:35 am
• Pirates (Edinson Volquez) @ Cardinals (Shelby Miller) - 6:15 pm

Today's Action

The Brewers finish off their four games series against the Phillies this afternoon. David Buchanan starts for the Phillies, and Matt Garza takes the mound for the Brewers. First pitch is at 1:10 pm, and MLB.com has the preview.

In the time between Matt Garza leaving the 8th inning with 2 outs and the final out of that inning, the Phillies scored 7 runs...

Winning Pitcher: David Buchanan

Losing Pitcher: Matt Garza

HR: Carlos Gomez (14)

Boxscore

Win Expectancy Chart

It was quite the day for (starting) pitchers. Matt Garza didn't allow a baserunner until the fifth when he walked Marlon Byrd. The Phillies didn't get their first hit until the top of the seventh inning. They got their second hit that inning as well and threatened after a ground out advanced the runners to second and third. Jeff Bianchi was able to knock down a line drive and throw to home for the second out. The threat ended on a deep fly out to center.

Garza would run into some trouble in the eighth inning and after getting 2 outs with runners on, was replaced by Will Smith. He would give up a base hit to Jimmy Rollins and two runs would score. Those runs belonged to Garza and so ultimately he allowed 3 hits, 3 walks, struck out 3, and gave up 2 runs.

David Buchanan was cruising through this game as well. He allowed a base hit early in the game, but the second hit was the important one and it didn't come until the sixth inning. Carlos Gomez hit a lead-off solo shot which at the time gave the Brewers a 1-0 lead. Buchanan would pitch a total of 7 innings allowing just the 1 run.

Will Smith would allow another 3 runs to score in that disastrous eighth inning before being removed for Brandon Kintzler who immediately allowed 2 more runs (both charged to Smith). Another two runs would score before the inning ended.

Wei-Chung Wang pitched the ninth inning. He'd get two outs before allowing a 2-run home run to Ryan Howard.

The Carlos Gomez home run was the only piece of actual offense the Brewers could muster in this game and it was nowhere near enough. The Phillies sweep the Brewers and take the season series 4-3.

Short memories and all that. Tomorrow begins the weekend series against the Cardinals. Yovani Gallardo takes on Joe Kelly. Start time is 7:10 pm CT.

Other notes:

• Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez apparently collided in the outfield again, though one of them did catch the ball this time. Both stayed in the game and are presumably fine. Here is Matt Garza's reaction to the play.

• St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is going to miss significant time after tearing a ligament in his thumb that will require surgery. Injuries suck and I hate them. Yes, even when they happen to the Cardinals. However, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't observe that this potentially benefits the Brewers in their weekend series against the Cards. It also means Jonathan Lucroy will very likely start the All-Star Game.

• Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips will be "out for a while" after hurting his thumb as well. He'll have surgery tomorrow. Billy Hamilton also hurt his hamstring recently, but he pinch hit in today's game so it's probably not a major concern.

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Brewers have now officially signed Gilbert Lara
• Brewers among teams interested in Erasmo Ramirez
• It's time to move Marco Estrada to the bullpen
• Considering a different type of trade
• What we learned: July 10, 2014

Admit it, you thought they were going to be no hit again, didn't you?

The "live blog" is something that's gone out of favor the past few years having been mostly replaced by things like twitter and, well, Twitter, mostly. But I'm going to bring it back this afternoon, and live-blog my Phillies game watching experience, and use this in lieu of an actual well-constructed recap. If this is too long, or you have anything better to do with your time (you do, trust me), you can just skip to the bottom to check out the fangraph of lose, or check here: https://twitter.com/didthephilswin

2:01 - T-Mac and Jamie Moyer are dressed in suit coats today. A decent look for a change, though I continue to loathe the matching clothing thing they always do. There's really no need for two or three adult men to wear the exact same clothes every day. They're not 5-year old triplets going for a family photo.

2:03 - McCarthy and Moyer are now talking about how well Garza has been pitching, but I can't stop thinking about how awful he is at throwing to bases. Also, how terrible he is at not being a giant tool.

2:05 - Marshall Harris and Ricky Bottalico have something to say. I mostly ignore them and go back to trying to work my way through the dozens of tabs I have open right now. An example: an interesting long-form article on a theory of pitching velocity: http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2014/6/18/5818380/effective-velocity-pitching-theory-profile-perry-husband

2:10 - Oh, Keys To The Game, great. Always good advice. Don't chase the high fastball. Okay, gotcha.

2:11 - I start to worry this recap might get really long. Not substantive, just long. I quickly shift my worry to Ryne Sandberg's managerial competency as Tony Gwynn (.174/.296/.217) steps in to lead off the game. Three pitches later he flies out on a weak pop-up in foul territory.

2:12 - In the time it took me to write the above sentence Jimmy Rollins also pops out, this one to deep 2B.

2:16 - After working the count full Utley flies out to left. Garza has thrown 10 pitches. I am already regretting this recap idea. It's no wonder why the live-blog went the way of the Dodo.

2:18 - I Google image search "Garza throwing errors" to find the funny gifs to hyperlink into the 2:03 entry. A peek behind the recap-construction kimono for ya there.

2:19 - I notice David Buchanan has that grumpy Kendrick-face, and kind of has the look of a younger Kyle Kendrick if you squint right.

2:23 - T-Mac informs me that the temperature in Milwaukee is 73 and that it's supposed to drop to the mid fifties this evening. Riveting. As he's doing his worst John Bolaris impression David Buchanon strikes out Jonathan Lucroy to end the inning.

2:25 - A Jeep commercial featuring  Michael Jackson's "Love never felt so good" song appears. I miss my old Grand Cherokee.

2:27 - Ryan Howard steps to the plate as T-Mac informs me that Howard and Utley are a combined 4-27 against Matt Garza. Delightful.

2:29 - The first Greg Murphy appearance, live from the bowels of Miller Park. He scratches at the beam of light that falls on the wall behind him. Still, a step up from Tuesday's copping a feel on the Bob Uecker statute's leg.

2:31 - A graphic with the NL central standings. I don't care.

2:34 - Marlon Byrd strikes out, but had a nice 12-pitch AB, nearly doubling Garza's pitch count. I wonder about what kind of goodies he might fetch later this month and am struck by how good a signing that actually turned out to be. Better than the Ellsbury and Choo deals, clearly.

2:41 - Fell down a twitter hole for a few minutes after seeing a tweet calling Eli Lake an egg and was curious of the context (other than his head being egg-shaped). In that time I missed an out, then the first hit of the game by Ryan Braun, and then a Khris Davis strikeout.

2:43 - Cody Asche with his second assist of the inning, ending it.

2:48 - After a Brown flyout and a Rupp strikeout the broadcast crew does a little video montage on Fauxto's good game yesterday, with Moyer saying something to the effect of, "If he can pitch like that he'll continue to be effective." Forced insight is often no insight at all, I'm finding out.

2:50 - Buchanan strikes out, and I get to watch more car commercials. No, I don't want a Toyota, even if I had the money to buy a new car, which I don't. Same goes for you, Ford commercial that's been made to look like a movie trailer.

2:53 - Buchanan walks Jeff Bianchi which begets the "hey, this strike zone is inconsistent!" protestations from the broadcast crew. Garza sacrifices him to second.

2:55 - Carlos Gomez swings so hard his helmet falls off. I think McCarthy is annoyed, saying he things Gomez needs a smaller helmet. I secretly hope Gomez has reason to do some of his patented "antics" this game. Instead Gomez flies out to center.

3:01 - Scooter Gennett flies out to center. Scooter. His name is actually Ryan. As is mine. But nobody calls me Scooter. "Ry" sometimes, but never "Scooter."

3:02 - This is the fangraph of win probability so far this game.

It could double as a graph of my excitement level thus far. Or a graph of my approval level of this horrible lineup, as Tony Gwynn Jr is due up in the top of the fourth. Any time you've got a guy coming into the game with a .296 OBP you've got to make sure he gets the most plate appearances.

3:05 - Gwynn's OBP is now .291.

3:07 - Car alarm going off outside, I have to check to make sure there aren't some local hoods making trouble. I return to find the game has shifted to commercials. Going out on a limb to guess that they still don't have a hit.

3:13 - Quick inning, Buchanan got Lucroy and Ramirez to ground out before striking out Braun. Buchanan's actually been fairly impressive thus far; is he another in the long line of serviceable 5th starters the Phillies have cultivated? It seems like that's the forte of the Phillies' player development team.

3:19 - Marlon Byrd works a walk! THE PHILLIES HAVE BROKEN UP THE PERFECTO! There shall be no perfect game against the Phils today! There was much joy in Mudville!

3:25 - After retiring Cody Asche and Domonic Brown Garza keeps the no hitter intact.

3:27 - There are twitter rumors that Lebron James is about to announce where he's taking his considerable talents. This is diverting my attention from the offensive void  being broadcast on my television.

3:31 - No Lebron updates, but now T-Mac and G-Murph (ugh) are debating the top-10 selling jerseys. Apparently across the league people like a 40 year old guy who's been a historically bad fielder at a hugely important defensive position.

Also at 3:31:

"Utley said nothing ... when asked about Papelbon’s comments & if anything has changed for him. He shooed away the question with his hands"

— RAD GOGGLES DOG (@Phylan) July 10, 2014

3:34 – Buchanan works around a Reynolds HBP, keeping his one-hitter alive. 5 innings, one hit. Can we lower the mound? I don’t mind a pitchers’ duel from time to time, but I really do miss the offensive side of baseball.

3:37 – Cameron Rupp flies to left-center. The call, "Davis and Gomez collide! Did they hang on to the ball? Yes, they did!" What? This man is paid to speak. Literally, his job is to clearly communicate the happenings of a baseball game to a television audience, and that’s the stuff he comes up with.

3:40: Garza’s response to T-Mac’s call.

Garza's response to idiots in the outfield pic.twitter.com/lpEEKq6dnO

— Jack Moore (@jh_moore) July 10, 2014

3:42 - Inning ends as Gwynn Gwynns. (.288 OBP)

3:44 - Carlos Gomez launches a ball into CF. Well, I asked for offense, I guess. And Gomez antics. Jamie Moyer mentions how he enjoyed watching Gomez run around the bases at fairly rapid pace. I wonder if Moyer is aware of Gomez's entire body of work?

3:48 - Jamie Moyer saying that Buchanan is young and will learn that if you are going to make a location mistake you need to do it off the plate. Jamie Moyer is baseball's all-time HR allowed leader, with 522.

3:50 - My computer case is making a cricket-like noise. I think it's a fan, but wow is this annoying.

3:50 - I see news breaking of Yadier Molina's torn thumb ligament, keeping him out 2-3 months. I guess Ruiz's three-year deal makes him an unattractive candidate for the Cards. Oh well.

3:54 - One hour and fifty-four minutes into this game Jimmy Rollins rips a single into right field. The no hitter has been broken up, our collective shame has been postponed!

3:56 - Utley with a single to CF! A rally! I just got excited about back to back singles. This is what Phillies fandom has become. Can Howard keep up the rally?

3:57 - No. Howard grounds out to first. Runners advance. Not the worst outcome, I guess, for a guy who hits a ton of ground balls and has the speed of a giant tortoise.

4:00 - Phillies manage to escape the inning without a run. Whew, that was close. Almost scored a little bit.

4:02 - Oh no, the cricket sound is back. Holy crap is this annoying. Do I restart the computer, maybe see if that does it? I'm sort of in the middle of typing this whole thing up, so that's not a terribly attractive option, but I think I may go all "The Yellow Wallpaper" if I have to sit through this high-pitched squeal all afternoon.

4:09 Buchanan works gets out of the 7th unscathed. The squealing has stopped...for now. I fear it will return shortly. Oh, hold on, text message. Coworker wants to know if I work today. I inform her I do not.

4:12 - Cameron Rubb doubles down the RF line. Hernandez pinch hits for Buchanan, Revere pinch runs for Rupp. T-Mac is wondering why Sandberg is not using John Mayberry as the pinch hitter. He has not considered that the reason may be because John Mayberry is terrible and even worse against RHP. I am informed by the broadcast crew that Hernandez is 0-3 lifetime against Garza while Mayberry is 0-4. That information is as valuable to me as the current weather conditions in East Timor.  Maybe less so.

4:14 - I realize I wrote Cameron Rubb in the above entry, and I chuckle a little, so I decide against going back and changing it.

4:16 - Hernandez walks, bringing up sure-out Gwynn. The question is, does he make one out, or two?

4:19 - I hear back from coworker. Turns out they need something I have on me. I may have to deliver it to work, which would put a real crimp on this live blog recap.

4:20 - Only one out. Gwynn grounded to third, runners advance. Two out, men on 2nd and 3rd for Rollins. Pitching change for the Brewers as Will Smith replaces Matt Garza.

4:25 - Rollins rips a ball to left scoring two! Phils gain the lead. I'm also really disappointed that Smith's warmup music isn't some Will Smith (the other one) song. Maybe Girls Ain't Nothing But Trouble, or something like that. Or Summertime. Probably want to avoid the more recent stuff though.

4:30 - Ryan Howard lofts a double down the left-field line, scoring Utley and Rollins! 4-1! Floodgates are open! Matt Garza is...uh...not happy in the dugout.  Oh, wait, now due to some ground rule they're saying Utley has to go back to third. Oh well. 3-1 is still better than 2-1. Plus there's the opportunity for more with Asche coming up with two on.

4:36 - Moyer talking about how Asche has to look for his pitch as he's up 3-1 after a Byrd intentional walk. Asche proceeds to immediately deposit the ball over Braun's head in right for a double. Phils up 5-1. Things are going swimmingly now. But also:

a 90 loss team still wins 72, guys

— RAD GOGGLES DOG (@Phylan) July 10, 2014

For context:

to clarify, I love it when they win but I also don't go "THIS IS SO CONFUSING WHAT IS GOING ON"

— RAD GOGGLES DOG (@Phylan) July 10, 2014

And with that, the Brewers have seen enough of Will Smith.

4:40 - Brandon Kintzler comes into the game and is immediately greeted by a Dom Brown single, scoring Byrd and Asche. It seems the Phils were saving all their hits for late in the game. The inning ends after 12 men come to the plate, scoring 7. I called the floodgates opening a few minutes ago, and it looks like I wasn't wrong!

4:50 - Uh oh. I have to run to work to drop off some supplies. So the live blog is going to have to pause here, and turn into a tape-delay blog. Or something like that. Apologies.

5:33 - Back! Nasty thunderstorms out there, and now I have WIll Smith's Summertime stuck in my head. Anyway, that's neither here nor there. Back to the recap. According to Fangraphs' play log Bastardo shut down the Brewers in the 8th, Tony Gwynn Jr brought his OBP down to .283 in the top of the 9th, Rollins walked and The Big Piece launched a home run to bring the score to 9-1. Diekman ended it in the 9th with a couple strikeouts of Lucroy and Braun.

Phillies continue their winning streak, and have just swept a 4 game series against one of the better teams in the NL. Yay variance!

5:38 - I wonder whatever happened to DJ Jazzy Jeff? Do you think he's a little resentful of all of Will Smith's success?

5:40 - I put all this stuff into the TGP Editorial page, and get ready to publish it. Why are you still reading? Really, this is way too many words, just stop. I will.

Fangraph of Victory!

Source: FanGraphs

Brewers fans have long been waiting for all three of these events to occur. Brewers kill three birds with one stone.

I don't know where to begin. Wei-Chung Wang has been a thorn in the side of many a Brewers fan. I think it would be entirely different if the Brewers weren't competing. Some fans just had no patience for a guy that was basically nothing but a long term project that might make for a good pitcher in 3 years taking up a roster spot now. I get that, but it's way too late in the season to let him go now.

That's probably part of what spurred the Brewers to place Wang on the DL with "shoulder tightness" *wink wink*. A Rule-5 pick has to stay on a major league active roster for at least 90 days. Wang has surpassed that mark and so it's entirely possible the Brewers keep him on the DL for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see him again until rosters expand in September. The Pirates could lodge a complaint, but the precedent for punishment is losing next year's Rule-5 draft pick. Another way to say that is there is no punishment.

I personally think more has been made of his impact on the bullpen than what his impact was in reality. The "impact" we're talking about is how many innings the bullpen has had to cover since it's basically been down a reliever. The Brewers starters have been eating up tons of innings and rank 2nd in innings pitched. That really mitigated a lot of that theorized impact. What we're basically talking about with Wang is the difference between him and another low leverage-long man. Those guys don't get used often and so ultimately we're probably not talking about more than 15 extra innings the pen has had to cover.

It's time to move Marco Estrada to the bullpen

Estrada has been great in the past, but so far this season he's been less than that

That being said, there should be no doubt that the Brewers bullpen is much improved by his absence. In my opinion, the bullpen is doubly benefited by the inclusion of Marco Estrada. I wrote about this yesterday so I won't take the time to rehash that here, but I'll say that I truly believe that Estrada could be an excellent reliever.

The really exciting development here is that Jimmy Nelson is going to pitch on Saturday. While Marco Estrada struggled this season to the tune of a 4.96 ERA, Nelson has been brutalizing Triple-A with a 1.46 ERA. Nelson's peripherals in AAA are great too: 26.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, .177 BAA, 0.92 WHIP, 0.24 HR/9.

I think we should realize that Jimmy Nelson is very probably not going to pitch that well at the major league level (No one is pitching that well if you go by ERA). At least he probably won't right away. That's not to say he won't be good. Really, he just has to do better than a 5.00 ERA and the rotation will have been improved. I think we can hope for a good deal better than that.

It's been a rough stretch for us fans. The Brewers have lost 8 of the last 10 games capped by a sweep by the Phillies. Still, the Brewers have one of the best records in baseball and are in first place in the National League. Now we have Marco Estrada in the bullpen and Jimmy Nelson in the rotation to look forward to. I for one am excited to see how things work themselves out.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• From no-hitter to series sweep: Brewers lose 9-1
• Brewers have now officially signed Gilbert Lara
• What we learned: July 10, 2014
• It's time to move Marco Estrada to the bullpen
• Brewers among teams interested in Erasmo Ramirez

Today's lessons include a roster move, an official signing, and news to prepare you for the weekend.

Yesterday's Results

Phillies 9, Brewers 1

A nightmare series came to an end last night with a complete bullpen implosion. Matt Garza put together another great start, pitching into the seventh inning with a no-hitter and putting together 7 2/3 innings of great baseball. He did allow two runs, but both of those scored as part of the bullpen implosion. Will Smith came in and allowed all five batters he faced to reach base, allowing five runs in the process. Brandon Kintzler came in and allowed two more hits to score an additional two runs before finally getting out of the inning. Wei-Chung Wang pitched the ninth and allowed a two-run home run as well. The only offense the Brewers could put together was a solo home run from Carlos Gomez.

Jimmy Nelson's chance in the rotation starts now.

Following the game, the Brewers make a few moves, and this one was the biggest. Marco Estrada was demoted to the bullpen, and Jimmy Nelson was brought up to take his place in the rotation. It's a move that fans have been wanting to happen, and now it is finally here. Nelson has been dominating the competition in Nashville, and while he probably won't do quite that well with the Brewers, he will hopefully help stabilize the rotation. Meanwhile, Estrada heads to the bullpen, which is a role he is familiar with. There's no indication on how he will be used yet, so we will have to see how he is handled.

To clear the space for Jimmy Nelson, the Brewers placed Wei-Chung Wang on the 15-day disabled list with a tight shoulder. Wang has struggled all season as a Rule 5 pick jumping to the majors, being limited to mainly relief duty in blowouts. The timing of this may be called into question, but injuries like this aren't uncommon for pitchers to have. Some teams may choose to wait a few days to see if it heals, but when a roster space is needed, the smaller injuries can go on the DL since the spot would be needed right away.

Cram Session

• The other big news of the day yesterday was that the Brewers officially announced the Gilbert Lara signing. Details on the contract aren't known, so we don't know what penalty the Brewers will end up paying on it.
• With the Brewers needing some help on their roster, Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker came up with some ideas for the trade deadline.
• After yesterday's game, Enrique Bakemeyer of Reviewing the Brew came out with five new questions for the 2014 Brewers (though two were rendered moot minutes later).
• Mike Fiers was named to the All-Star roster for the Pacific Coast League.

Minor League Update

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

• Pirates 9, Cardinals 1
• Cubs 6, Reds 4

This Weekend's Division Games

• Pirates @ Reds
  Friday: Jeff Locke vs. Mat Latos - 6:10 pm
  Saturday: Charlie Morton vs. Mike Leake - 6:15 pm
  Sunday: Francisco Liriano vs. Johnny Cueto - 12:10 pm
• Braves @ Cubs
  Friday: Alex Wood vs. Jake Arrieta - 3:05 pm
  Saturday: Mike Minor vs. Edwin Jackson - 3:05 pm
  Sunday: Julio Teheran vs. Travis Wood - 1:20 pm

This Weekend's Action

The Brewers head into the All-Star break with a three game series against the Cardinals. Here are this weekend's pitching matchups:

Friday: Joe Kelly vs. Yovani Gallardo
Saturday: Adam Wainwright vs. Jimmy Nelson
Sunday: Carlos Martinez vs. Wily Peralta

The Milwaukee Brewers promoted pitching prospect Jimmy Nelson to the major leagues today and he's expected to start tomorrow. Nelson has been blowing away Triple-A all year and is ready for an extended big league trial, making him a logical topic for today's Prospect of the Day.

Nelson's development as a prospect was not a straight path to success. Pitching for the University of Alabama, he struggled with command issues as a freshman (6.26 ERA, 37/29 K/BB in 42 innings), but improved as a sophomore (4.54 ERA, 39/20 K/BB in 38 innings) used mainly as a reliever both seasons. He moved to the rotation for his junior year in 2010 and improved significantly, posting a 4.01 ERA with a 98/33 K/BB in 110 innings. There was some question on his long-term role, but his stuff was strong and he was drafted in the second round.

Assigned to Low-A Wisconsin in the Midwest League for 2011, Nelson posted a somewhat disappointing 4.38 ERA due to command troubles, though he pitched 146 innings with a 120/65 K/BB. Moved up to High-A Brevard County in the Florida State League for 2012, he showed better control, posting a 77/25 K/BB in 81 innings with a 2.21 ERA. Promoted to Double-A Huntsville in July, he had some adaptation issues with his command but held his own overall, posting a 3.91 ERA with a 42/37 K/BB in 46 innings.

Nelson returned to Huntsville for 2013 and improved a great deal, with a 72/15 K/BB in 69 innings. This got him an invite to the MLB All Star Futures Game, as well as a promotion to Triple-A Nashville. He ran up a 3.67 ERA in 83 innings for the Sounds, with a 91/50 K/BB and 74 hits allowed. He pitched 10 innings in the majors last fall and gave up just one run.

He returned to Nashville for more "seasoning" this spring and has been lights out: 114/32 K/BB in 111 innings, just 70 hits, a 1.46 ERA. His FIP is more human at 2.94, but that's still really good, especially by the standards of the Pacific Coast League.

Born June 5, 1989, Nelson is a big guy at 6-5, 245. He had problems keeping his mechanics in gear early in his career, but has made a lot of progress making his delivery more consistent, enhancing his command and control. He has needed time to make adjustments at each level: the general pattern is a spike in his walk rate when he is promoted, but it comes back down again as he gets used to the competition.

His stuff is certainly good enough: he can hit 94-96 with his four-seam fastball, 90-93 with nasty sinking action when he goes with two seams. Even when his command is off, he keeps the ball down and gives up very few home runs; walks are his weakness, not gopher balls. He's given up just three homers this year. His slider is very good, and he's improved his change-up from quite weak to at least workable and sometimes better than average.

If his past pattern is any indication, Nelson could have some adjustment and command issues in the majors but will work through them and emerge as an effective pitcher. Once he settles in, I see him as a workhorse inning-eater who will provide above-average numbers year after year. He has nothing left to prove in the minors at all, and the Brewers just need to let him pitch.

Now our hero is hurt for the stretch run.

PROLOGUE:

He slid to third, he had made it in time.
There was reason not to fret o'er Yadi.
But continue, he did not. And now there
is news of a grave, discouraging fate.

SCENE II. ST. LOUIS. A PRESS CONFERENCE

Enter MOLINA, MATHENY, ST. LOUIS MEDIA, PAGE, and MO

MOLINA

With thumb sprain, I hath nothing!

ST. LOUIS MEDIA

What, are thou

hurt?

MOLINA

Ay, Ay, a scratch; marry 'tis enough.

Where is my page? Go, Cruz, fetch a surgeon!

[Exit CRUZ]

ST. LOUIS MEDIA

But how, man? The hurt cannot be much.

MOLINA

No,

'tis not so deep as center, nor so wide
as a stadium, but it is enough,
it will serve. Ask for me tomorrow and
you shall find me on the disabled list.
I am hurt. I am out for two months hence.
No All Star Game. No Cardinal battery!
Gone! All gone! Everything that I love gone!
Tore away like unfit mother from babe!
All in one small, insignificant play!
Allen, why must you hit ground balls so much?
Ay, it matters not anymore. 'Tis over.
The team - it must continue without me.
'But how will they win without you, Yadi?'
You are thinking, I know, but you must see
We will be successful, it's what we do.
More options, be damned. We shall just come through.
No complaint shall there be o'er loss of me.
Help me into the clubhouse, Matheny.
I shall faint. A plague o' both your houses!

ST. LOUIS MEDIA

Wait... Whose houses are you talking about?

MOLINA

They have made worms' meat of me-

ST. LOUIS MEDIA

Who is "they"?

MOLINA

I have it, and soundly, too. Your houses!

[Exits MOLINA]

Molina will be out 8-12 weeks. - Viva el Birdos

Other Molina News...

• Why this isn't the end of the world. - Cards Conclave
• Here is a hodge podge of articles:
  MLB
  ESPN
  USA Today
  SBNation
  STLToday
  Cards Conclave
  101.1 ESPN
• And what the Cardinals could do:
  STL Today
  Viva el Birdos
• Annnndddd... what the Cardinals have done:
  MLB Trade Rumors
• And tweets:
  

  The @Cardinals place C Yadier Molina on 15-day DL with torn ligament in right thumb; recall catcher Audry Perez from Triple-A Memphis.

  — MLBRosterMoves (@MLBRosterMoves) July 10, 2014

  
  

  Maybe the Cardinals can replace Yadier Molina with the exact opposite player--AJ Pierzynski.

  — High Heat Stats MLB (@HighHeatStats) July 10, 2014

  
  

  Yadier Molina this morning when he was told the news: "I almost cried."

  — KMOXSports (@KMOXSports) July 10, 2014

  
  

  With the Yadier Molina injury, @JLucroy20 is now an All-Star starter for the National League due to winning the player vote. #Brewers

  — Mike Vassallo (@MikeVassallo13) July 10, 2014

  Yadier Molina missing two-plus months would be bad for the Cardinals, but also just bad for baseball, period.

  — keithlaw (@keithlaw) July 10, 2014

  
  

  Yadier Molina to miss 8-12 weeks for thumb surgery. Molina has been one of the most productive catchers since 2011. pic.twitter.com/ooBhRrwUNK

  — ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 10, 2014

  
  

  There are a lot of indispensable players in baseball. Yadier Molina may be at the top of that list. Out 2-3 months with torn thumb ligament.

  — Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 10, 2014

  
  

  8-12 weeks seems like a long time to be without Molina, but compared to the vast expanse of human existence-oh god I need to stop thinking.

  — Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) July 10, 2014

  
  

  That feeling of yadilessness. :( #yadilessness

  — Aaron Finkel (@Aaron_Finkel) July 10, 2014

  
  

  "Please, sir, if any of my ligaments or tendons will help, I'll gladly donate them."

  — Tom_sveb (@Tom_sveb) July 10, 2014

Other Things Going on in Baseball...

Who cares?
Okay, here is a few:

• These pitchers are the most indispensable for each's respective teams. - Sports Illustrated
• Prince Fielder is in this years ESPN Body Issue, and I say "Way to go!" - SBNation; ESPN
• Here are where the final votes are coming from. - MLB
  And Chris Sale and Anthony Rizzo are the final members of the All Star Team (Yadi's replacement hasn't been chosen yet.) - Yahoo
• Masahiro Tanaka has a partially torn UCL. - SBNation
• The Cardinals have made it pretty clear they are not interested in A.J. Pierzynski and this is probably why. - SBNation

What the Cardinals Are Up To, Besides Missing Yadi...

• Allen Craig cannot pull a ball to left field and it is getting really depressing. - Fangraphs
• Adam Wainwright is a treasure. GET THAT MAN A CY YOUNG. - Grantland

KNOW THINE ENEMY...

The NL Central

• Anthony Rizzo was very upset, but you don't want to dismiss Alfredo Simon and the Simon temper, guys. - SBNation
• John Baker was really stoked about this walk against Aroldis Chapman. - Cut4
• Standings:
  

  Milwaukee Brewers	52	41	.559
  St. Louis Cardinals	50	43	.538
  Cincinnati Reds	49	43	.533
  Pittsburgh Pirates	48	44	.522
  Chicago Cubs	39	52	.429

The Milwaukee Brewers

• Matt Garza was pitching a no hitter. It was almost ruined, but then it wasn't. He made this face. - SBNation
• Bob Ueker this weekend, guys! - Cut4
• fink previews the upcoming series. - Viva el Birdos
• BCB does a preview as well. - Brew Crew Ball
• They also did a Q&A with our very own Aaron Finkel. - Brew Crew Ball
• For all things Brewers, check out Brew Crew Ball. - Brew Crew Ball

Viva El Stuff...

• There are some very interesting fanposts this week. 
  Ben Cerutti (the VEBer formerly known as stlfan) writes about scouting through statistics and the Cardinals batted ball locations. - Viva el Birdos; Viva el Birdos
  johnjf125 discusses why he thinks the Cardinals shouldn't trade for David Price and ponders if we every really cared about Allen Craig the person. (I do :( ) - Viva el Birdos; Viva el Birdos
  Drew Kelso asks who you would go all in for. - Viva el Birdos
  fortuitously looks at a way to distribute outfield playing time. - Viva el Birdos
  TonyHansel looks at some trade options. - Viva el Birdos
• I wrote this Rain Delay Theater featuring a Yadier Molina monologue in iambic pentameter. - Viva el Birdos

Other Things...

• The Blues lose Vladimir Sobotka to the KHL. I... really just am not emotionally ready for all this. - St. Louis Game Time
• Lebron James has made his decision. Holy. Moly. - SBNation

Weekly Scoreboard:

Tonight is the first game of the big three game series against the NL Central leading Brewers. The Cardinals could end the series at best, in first place, at worst possibly fourth. This is the last series before the All Star Break. Joe Kelly takes the mound for the Birdos in his first start since going on the DL with a hamstring whatever that was he suffered back on April 16. Opposing him will be Yovani Gallardo. Look for Mike Shannon to mispronounce his name on KMOX 1120, or listen to the Brewers radio broadcast on WTMJ 620, Brewers Radio Network. The televesion broadcast will be on Fox Sports Midwest, Fox Sports Wisconsin, and MLB Network. Gametime is 7:10pm CST.

The yearly parade of All-Star Game replacements and roster moves has begun, with a four-time All-Star leading the first wave of names.

Second baseman Ian Kinsler was named to the American League All-Star roster on Friday, while Miguel Montero of the Diamondbacks was added to the National League All-Star roster.

Kinsler headlines the group, taking over for Detroit Tigers teammate Victor Martinez on the roster. In his first season with the Tigers following eight years as a Texas Ranger, Kinsler leads all of the currently selected replacements with his fourth All-Star trip. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said he is usingthe All-Star break to help his designated hitter recover from "right side soreness."

On the NL side, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina -- who will miss 8-12 weeks after tearing ligaments in his thumb sliding into first base on Thursday -- will be replaced by Montero on the roster, with Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy named the NL's starter. It is Montero's second time at the Midsummer Classic, while Lucroy will make his debut appearance.

There are no words for tonight's game.

WP: Pat Neshek (4-0)
LP: Francisco Rodriguez (3-3)
SV: Trevor Rosenthal (28)

HR: Matt Adams (11), Kolten Wong (5), Jhonny Peralta (14)

MVP: Zach Duke (+.115)
LVP: Frnacisco Rodriguez (-.306)

Box Score

I don't know what to say tonight. I really don't.

The Brewers had this game, and they had it early. They put together an early 6-0 lead. They chased the Cardinals starter out of the game after 3 innings. At their best part today, they had a 96.5% chance of win. Then, the collapse happened. The best way to show it to you is through a graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Some of this is just bad luck, and here's how I can say that. Within the last week, the Brewers lost games where they had a 4-run lead and a 6-run lead. I went back and looked at the Brewers best chances of winning the game in both of those games. In Tuesday's game, it was 86.2%. In today's game, it was 96.5%. Doing some quick math, that means the chances of losing Tuesday's game was 13.8% at the best point, and 3.5% at the best point today. Do you know what the chances of losing both of those games are? 0.4%. To put it another way, if the Brewers had 250 chances come up with two separate games with those chances to win, they would lose both games in only 1 of those 250 chances. (Yes, I know there are many ways you can criticize that math, but that's not the point right now.)

Here's the shorthand version of the recap. The Brewers were staked to an early 3-0 lead with RBIs from Aramis Ramirez and Khris Davis. They built that lead to 6-0 thanks to RBI from Scooter Gennett and Ryan Braun. That was all the offense could go in the game. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo started strong before collapsing in the later innings. He allowed a two-run home run to Matt Adams in the fourth, then home runs to Kolten Wong and Jhonny Peralta in the sixth. That chased Gallardo from the game, and Rob Wooten came in. He allowed all three batters he faced to reach base, and Zach Duke came in to try to save the inning. He couldn't, and the Cardinals tied the game on an RBI groundout.

Zach Duke kept the Cardinals into the seventh, and Brandon Kintzler retired the one batter he faced. Will Smith pitched a clean eighth, then Francisco Rodriguez came in. He allowed a home run to Matt Holliday to give the Cardinals the lead, and the Brewers could do nothing to make a comeback in the ninth.

The Brewers still have a 1 game lead in the division, but that's not much consolation right now. Adam Wainwright starts tomorrow, and he's 11-4 with a 1.79 ERA. The Brewers send out Jimmy Nelson, who's making his third major league start. The game will be on Fox Sports 1 at 3:10 pm. If the Brewers don't want to lose sole possession of first place, they have to show up tomorrow, and in a big way.

One of the best games of the year just occurred on a Friday night, as the Cardinals bashed out 4 home runs in a dramatic comeback win to bail out Joe Kelly.

Oh my... oh my goodness... this is the game recap I've been waiting to write. All the others were "meh" in comparison, at best. The Cardinals did not give up tonight, fighting their way slowly throughout the game, utilizing home runs and a staunch bullpen to accrue a win.

It didn't look good from the beginning, with the Brewers scoring runs pretty easily off of the now returned Joe Kelly. Scooter Gennett was the sparkplug of the Brewers pesky offense tonight, going a gritty 3 for 5 with 2 RBI and posting the highest WPA for the Brewers' offense. Khris Davis was also rather annoying tonight, with 2 RBI as well.

When Gallardo singled in the 2nd, Gomez got a hit, and then Scooter Gennett (that name! gah!) tripled. I was dismayed, just like most Cardinal fans. And then Ryan Braun also tripled off of Joe Kelly. It didn't look good and some fans gave up on the game. The Redbirds were down 6-0 after all, and I certainly probably would have headed out of my modest apartment into the wily night if it weren't for this recap that needed to be written.

However, this game was a near perfect illustration of why not to give up, whatever it may be (well, within reason, I suppose). Tides will change, it is a fact of life. They may not always change, but there's always a chance. The ebb and flow of this particular baseball game allowed for no more runs by the Brewers, and 7 more for the Cardinals before the completion of the 9th inning.

The man that got it started was Big City Matt. Quickly becoming one of, if not my favorite Cardinals (at least on the position player side). Matt Adams went to the plate looking for a home run, it appeared to me. This may not always be the best idea, but when down by 6 runs, it is not a bad idea at all. He hit a foul ball with a nice and smooth upper cut swing, foreshadowing what was to come.

He crushed a Gallardo pitch over 450 feet in that at bat, this time fair, scoring Matt Holliday, who had doubled earlier. It is nice to see 2nd Half Matt is in effect now. The dinger parade was far from over though. Kolten Wong's solo shot made it a 3 run game in the 5th. Then Matt Holliday walked, inching the WPA graph closer to center... at which point, the sole HR force of the Cardinals so far, shortstop Jhonny Peralta, hit his 14th home run of the season. He is my other favorite position player this year.

A little later, the Cardinals were threatening on offense again. A high leverage walk by Tony Cruz set the table for a pinch hit Oscar Taveras ground out RBI, which tied the game at 6 in the 6th. Here's the graph illustrating this phenomenon:

Source: FanGraphs

The Brewers threatened, but could not get through the tenuous grip of the St. Louis bullpen. They were not dominant, but they got the job done. Nick Greenwood did some kind of tightrope walk but got through 2 innings of work unscathed. Seth Maness with his 3.23 FIP (1.92 for the night) also dispatched the Brewers hitters in an inning and two-thirds. And the greatest of all time, Pat Neshek, picked up the W tonight with an inning and a third of work, scoring the 2nd highest WPA for the Cards' pitchers. Closer Trevor Rosenthal shut the door in the Brewers face with a save that featured no walks and one hit.

The hero of the night, arguably, was Matt Holliday, who was visibly relieved in a post-game interview. I think the guy maybe worries too much about what people think of his hitting. I am sure he would love to hit a lot more home runs. I neglected to mention earlier that he hit a home run tonight, a searing, scorching line drive that was such an archetypal Matt Holliday home run that I can't really think of what else to say other than that is kind of the embodiment of what type of hitter he really is. It's just that this one actually left the ballpark.

Peralta was the other hero on offense, and I don't want to think where the team would be without him this season. His 2 RBI on the home run was good for the 2nd highest WPA on the offense for this game.  Best part is that the team appeared to really gel tonight and find some identity, or at least, garnered a morale boost out of a rough start. They did not give up! There's something to be said for that.

The bullpen might be the hidden hero though... their WPA was .194 (Rosenthal), .168 (Neshek), and .097 (Maness). They needed to stop the Brewers in their tracks, and they did. What a great win! The Cardinals are now just 1 game back with one of the best records in the NL.

Tune in tomorrow at 3:10pm for the next installment of this cliffhanger that is baseball. Did I mention that the Cardinals hit 4 home runs tonight?? WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Music selection for tonight:

Cheatahs debut full length which is here on youtube, you can hear the whole thing. It is fun, beautiful, and interesting, listen to it and be moved. It is quite likely my soundtrack for the summer... it's that good. Genre-wise, it's about the closest thing to pop that I listen to, many call it "shoegaze".

Notes

Yadier Molina and Jaime Garcia both had successful surgeries today. Peralta hit his 14th home run of the season, Adams hit his 11th, Holliday his 6th, and Wong his 5th! The guy even missed playing time twice due to reasons outside of his control, so he'd perhaps be tied with Holliday in home runs (he was briefly tonight). What a rookie second baseman! Matt Adams leads the team with a robust .888 OPS and .333 batting average.