The 2014 All Star Game is less than two weeks away. Which Reds will make the cut?

You could make a pretty compelling case that there are six players on the Cincinnati Reds roster who deserve a trip to the 2014 MLB All Star Game in Minneapolis in 12 days.  While that's a pretty solid endorsement of the talent and success on the current roster, it's a footnote to that case that I find the most interesting:  Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Mat Latos, Ryan Ludwick, and Homer Bailey account for none of the six players mentioned.

None of the four highest paid position players on the Reds - each former All Stars who have combined for a total of 10 appearances - has had a first half worthy of invitation to the Midsummer Classic, nor have the two most consistent pitchers from the Reds' dominant 2012 and 2013 starting rotations.  In fact, of the six guys worthy of being an All Star this season, five of them would be first timers should their names be called on Sunday's All-Star Selection Show.

It would be hard to find any team in baseball who could boast having six players with first half resumes deemed worthy of being All Stars, but you could find at least a couple with compelling arguments.  However, there's no team in baseball whose group can rival the storylines being forged by the Cincinnati six.

• There's the 3B with an arm bar swing who hit just .234 in 2013.
• There's the spindly rookie CF who was widely called "overmatched" after starting the season 0 for 13 with 6 strikeouts as the replacement for the 2013 Team MVP.
• There's the catcher who entered 2014 with a career .225 batting average while spending his 3 years in the big leagues as a backup.
• There's the starter-turned-closer-turned-waived-turned-reliever-turned-emergency starter who is having a career year at age 33.
• There's 2014's best starting pitcher slicing up eyeballs after a 2013 season that was mostly lost due to injuries before a disastrous start in the one game playoff in Pittsburgh.
• And there's the reliever having - by many accounts - the best season of his already illustrious career despite spending much of his Spring recovering from the spring training line drive that shattered his face and threatened his vision.

★★★

Situational Stars

Aroldis Chapman, RP

The Reds closer has already put together a four year stretch as a reliever that is as impressive as any in the modern game, but there have been a few things he's done in 2014 that even his previous career can't touch.  He's striking out a career high 17.5 batters per 9 innings, his K/BB is at a career best 5.75, his 0.845 WHIP is well below his career mark of 1.00 (and is the second best mark of his career), and his FIP is at a miniscule (and career low) 0.78.

Of course, Chapman has thrown just 23.2 innings in 2014 after missing over a month while recovering from his gnarly facial fractures, so he's not compiled some of the gaudy statistics he's put up in previous seasons.  That may work against his selection, but both his track record of dominance and the game's outcome determining home field advantage in the playoffs may lead to Cardinals manager Mike Matheny selecting Chapman as a weapon out of his pen in a late game scenario.

Chapman is averaging - AVERAGING - over 100 mph on his fastball, which is the best mark in baseball.  I can't imagine anyone else I'd rather have in my bullpen should I be managing with the game on the line.

Billy Hamilton, CF

If you look purely at fWAR, you'll find that Billy Hamilton has been the 6th best OF in the National League in 2014.  While that itself merits the rookie CF worthy of consideration for a bench spot at the All Star Game, it's the generational talent he's shown on the bases and defensively that would likely lead to him being selected if that should come to pass.  At .279/.309/.400, he's shown himself to be a perfectly cromulent piece of the offense with the bat, but those simply aren't the kind of numbers that get you in the a game full of the league's biggest stars.  Rather, having 35 steals to your name and ranking in the top two in the NL in runs saved, UZR, and UZR/150 while playing one of the most important defensive positions in the game warrants inclusion.

Whether as a LIDR or pinch runner, Hamilton provides the kind of skills that make him the perfect piece to have on the bench for a game-changing late inning play, and that's the kind of weapon it will be hard to leave off a roster.

★★★

Worthy Contenders

Alfredo Simon, SP

Simon is the single most surprising name in this group for no reason other than the SP listed next to his name.  Once you delve beyond that, his performance is equally as surprising since he's managed to maintain the brilliance he flashed at the start of the season tens of innings farther into the season than even his staunchest supports would have hoped for.

His success effectively relegated Tony Cingrani to the minors, and through 16 starts he ranks in the Top 10 in the NL in ERA, wins, win %, WHIP, H/9, WPA, average game score, OPS against, and ERA+.  However, he doesn't strike out a ton of guys, isn't a big name, and may well find himself on the outside looking in despite having a career year.  Hell, if Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos haven't yet made an All Star team, then it's obvious that any worthy player could be passed over.

Devin Mesoraco, C

The patiently awaited breakout of Mesoraco has finally begun, and he's mashed his way through pitchers this year at a rate not seen since the Red Reporter contingent after Game Two.  His wOBA and wRC+ are the best among catchers in the NL - as is his .645 SLG - and he ranks in the top two in batting average, home runs, OPS, and RBI.

Heck, if you set the minimum PA to 190, Devin Mesoraco has the highest wRC+ in all of baseball (184), ahead of Mike Trout (182) and Troy Tulowitzki (179).

Therein lies Devin's problem, though.  He's been on the DL twice already this season, and has subsequently missed a ton of time rehabbing his oblique and hamstring injuries.  While his on-field production has been ridiculous, he may get knocked for having missed a big part of the season, which would be a shame.  He's also facing some decent competition in his own division, as Jonathan Lucroy looks poised to be voted as the starter, and former catcher Matheny will be managing the roster while his own catcher - 5-time All Star Yadier Molina - will be available for selection as a backup, too.

★★★

The Likelies

Todd Frazier, 3B

Fortunately for the Reds otherwise messy offense, the Todd Frazier who bashed brains en route to finishing 3rd in the 2012 Rookie of the Year voting has reemerged this season after a disappointing 2013, and the Reds would probably be lost without him.  The 28 year old leads all NL 3B in HR, SB, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and Sinatra, and is 5th overall in the NL among all players in fWAR.

In fact, there are only two players in all of baseball who have at least 13 stolen bases and are slugging over .500:  Frazier, and Carlos Gomez.

The Reds 3B will likely get pipped in the voting by the Brewers' Aramis Ramirez, which stinks, and he'll be up against some star-caliber names like David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, and Matt Carpenter for bench spots, but there's no denying he's been one of the game's best to this point in 2014.

To see him miss out would be a traveshamockery nearly as egregious as saying Miller Lite is good beer.

Johnny Cueto, SP

Cueto showed in 2012 that when he's healthy he's as good as there is at throwing a baseball, and he's done nothing in 2014 but improve upon that.  He leads all of baseball in GS, IP, CG, WHIP, and H/9, he's among the top three in the NL in bWAR, ERA, K, SHO, ERA+, and WPA, and among the top ten in FIP, W, and K/9.

He's been one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball for four years, yet he's never been an All Star due to various and sundry reasons.  Unfortunately for Cueto, he's scheduled to start the Sunday before the All Star break, so while he's every bit deserving of a spot on the squad, there's a decent likelihood that he'd be unavailable even if selected, which I'm sure would be rather disappointing to him.  For the Reds, though, that does mean they can squeeze in one start before the break and potentially bring him back on normal rest for the 2nd half of the season with a chance to get as many starts out of him as possible.

Or, y'know, they could just give the guy the week off since he's carried them through much of the season already.

★★★

That's six.

The All Star Game is a strange bird, anyway.  It's a reward for both career achievement and for small sample size, as both Derek Jeter this season and Bryan LaHair in 2012 can attest.  It's driven purely by April, May, and June, so while none of Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Bailey, or Latos have carried the Reds to this point, they may be carrying these six would-be All Stars in every category by the time October baseball rolls around.

It's fickle and it's imperfect, and I'm sure there are many professionals who will welcome a long break after grinding every day for some five months prior to this point.  For some, however, it's a career achievement that sticks with both them and their BBRef page for the rest of their lives, and that's the kind of seal of approval we fans can root for.

I mean, heck, it's the only reason why I remember who Bryan LaHair is, anyway.

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Winner-winner chicken dinner - oh no, Carlos, I didn't actually mean chicken!

pre-game

I am a champion for Allen Craig. I like him, I like how he plays, he has two first names, he has a pet tortoise. I want him to do well. I want him to prove the sayers of nay wrong. I want him to be clutch again. But I would be lying to you if I said I was not truly flummoxed by Matheny starting him the past two games with Oscar Taveras recently called up. I am further flummoxed by the fact that he is not starting today against the very tough left-handed pitching Madison Bumgarner. The nine game winner also owns a 2.90 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. He has easily been the Giants best pitcher at 2.2 fWAR.

Also of note is Hunter Pence leading off for the Giants. That seems pretty strange, but if I think about it Pence is clearly the Giants best hitter, so it makes sense.

game

First of all: ¡Hola Carlos!

Carlos Martinez was five innings of baseball erotica. He changed speeds, he hit his spots, he blew fastballs by people, he got a RBI single. His most important at bat would come in the fifth inning. With the bases loaded (on a bunt single, an infield single and a walk) and two outs, Gerald Buster Posey would step up to the plate. With the Cardinals up by four runs, Buster could tie the game with one mighty swing.
But he didn't.
Martinez would start Posey off with two 98 mph fastballs. The first one would hit the top outside corner, the second was down the middle and fouled off. Posey would take two sliders, then strike out on this pitch (he said he tipped it - maybe he did, but it appeared Yadi caught it anyway):

Gameday calls this a curveball. It is a slider - the third in a row in the at bat and instant death for poor Gerald.

The other half of the story was the Cardinal offense. Yes, I am serious! And so was the offense! The Birdos would put up seven runs on 14 hits, scored in four different innings and mixed in a dinger for good measure.

The scoring began right off the bat as Matt Carpenter would lead off the inning with a walk. With two outs, Jhonny Peralta would knock him in with a two run homer, his twelfth of the year to lead the team and take a 2-0 lead.

MBI: 1 (Matt Carpenter by Jhonny Peralta)

The Giants would answer back on a base hit by Madison Bumgarner to score Gregor Blanco. Bumgarner would advance to second on a fielder's choice, but would stay there, keeping the game 2-1 Cardinals.

Jon Jay would get the run back in the fourth by doubling in Yadier Molina who, like Carpenter, went 3-4. The Cardinals were not done, though, particularly Martinez, who would bang out a base hit through a drawn in infield to plate Mark Ellis (who reached on an error by first baseman Adam Duvall) and Jon Jay and give the Cardinals a 6-1 lead.¡Viva el Gallo!

The Cardinals would tack on another run, thanks to another San Francisco defensive miscue, scoring Matt Adams.
MBI: 1 (Matt Adams by Oscar Taveras)

The bullpen threw four mostly dominant innings, with minor hiccup by Sam Freeman that lead to Giants run in the sixth. Seth Maness stole the show, giving up no hits and getting six outs on 15 pitches - and he got a base hit -- and he was thrown out at home! Jason Motte pitched a scoreless, hitless ninth and the Cards took the game 7-2 and the series two games to one.

Source: FanGraphs

post-game

LIL SCOOTER'S PLAYER OF THE GAME:

I am giving this prestigious distinction to El Gallo. Bhonny Jhonny technically has the edge on him in WPA, .178 to .165, but 6 strikeouts and only one earned run in five innings of work, with 2 runs batted in is enough for me for make the tough call.

TWEET/GAMETHREAD COMMENT OF THE GAME:

Matt Carpenter's http://t.co/7Asg2Bl49V page just started a really loud auto-playing ad. That's perfect.

— Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron) July 3, 2014

The Cardinals end the west coast trip 5-5, and have gained a game (or half of a game) on the Brewers in the process. They will have no time to rest as they try to continue these winning ways over to St. Louis, where Lance Lynn will take on Nathan Eovaldi of the Marlins. The game starts at 6:15pm.

Tomorrow is Independence Day. Everyone have a safe and happy holiday. Don't forget to enjoy your fireworks like an American.

The Brewers won't win or lose the division in the next 10 games, but their performance will set up the rest of their season.

What we learned is taking a day off for the holiday. It will return on Monday.

Today is the start of a 10-game stretch that will take us to the All-Star Break. In this stretch includes a series against the second place team in the NL Central (St. Louis Cardinals, 5 games back) and fourth place team (Cincinnati Reds, 7 games back), along with a 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. With just under three months left in the season, this stretch won't decide anything. The division won't be won or lost over this span. However, the Brewers can make a statement to start the second half of the season with these games.

Up to this point in the season, the Brewers have built up the biggest division lead in baseball. At the same time, these two teams have continued to be a thorn in the Brewers side. They are 3-3 against the Cardinals so far this season, and 2-5 against the Reds. Over the course of the rest of the season, they have 13 more games against the Cardinals and 12 more against the Reds. That's about 1/3 of the remaining Brewers' schedule. Either team could make life very difficult for the Brewers and their playoff push. So far, the Brewers have used some good play against the Pittsburgh Pirates to help build their lead (10-3 against the Pirates this season), but if they want to make the playoffs, they will need to find some success against the Cardinals and Reds.

The Brewers will enter this next stretch of games with a five game lead. How they exit it will either give the other teams hope for the rest of the season, or deal a blow to their confidence. Losing these games will show the other teams that the division race is still open. Holding the lead or building on it will make the task of putting together a run to the division lead that much tougher. While holding the lead may not be that much exciting, it means that nothing has changed, and now the other teams have 10 less games to use for making their comeback.

It would also help the Brewers decide what they need to do over the remainder of the season. Letting that lead drop may create more urgency to bring a player in via a trade. Building that lead would decrease the need and allow the Brewers to stick with what they have with confidence. It will also be a critical time for some of the fringe players. They can solidify their spots with some good games, or make them expendable with a bad stretch. The trade deadline is looming, and if those players don't want to lose their job, they need to begin to step up now.

The division race won't be won in the next 10 games. It also won't be lost in those games. However, the Brewers can dictate how it will go with their performance in these games. What they do against the Reds and Cardinals will position themselves for the second half of the season.

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Continuing the midseason thoughts from the different contributors on BCB.

At the halfway point, what do you see as the biggest strength of the team?

The 2014 Brewers are an odd animal.  At the beginning of the year, the consensus was the Brewers could be very good ... if everything went right.  It's now July, the Brewers have the best record in the National League, and there have been a truck load of problems: injuries, replay hiccups, managerial fumbling, botched plays, slumps, and baserunning gaffes along the way.  The Brewers' cleanup hitter missed a month, and one of the team's most reliable relievers last year didn't see game action until mid-June. Their shortstop hasn't come within a whiff of his 2013 success, and their superstar right fielder has been hampered by nagging thumb and oblique injuries.  The team's presumptive closer in spring hasn't closed a game.  The team is effectively playing a man short all the time, with one roster spot taken up by a dead-weight Rule 5 pick.  Matt Garza and Marco Estrada have been kind of a mess.  Yet here we are.

Which brings me to the team's greatest strength: short of maybe Jonathan Lucroy, there is no one player that is absolutely essential to the team's success.  That they've won despite all these problems is a testament to Doug Melvin, who constructed a roster that isn't necessarily steeped in high-level talent, but has plenty of above-average options that coalesce into something greater.  The team is well-built to survive the rigors of the season, but as we'll get to next ... that may also wind up being its greatest weakness.

At the halfway point, what is the biggest weakness for the team?

While the Brewers seem to be a well-constructed regular-season team, I'm not sure the roster will look that appetizing when the playoffs roll around (see next question).  The rotation has been regularly lauded as a solid, top-to-bottom staff without a true ace like Stephen Strasburg, but also without a replacement-level player just soaking up innings as a number five.  And while a rotation composed of solid number three's works for the grueling slog through 162 games, I don't think it matches up well against some of the powerhouse staffs in the National League.

Here's an example.  Let's say the Brewers play the NL West front-running Dodgers.  Here's how those matchups might look during a playoff series with a four-man staff:

Game 1: Kyle Lohse vs. Clayton Kershaw

Game 2: Yovani Gallardo vs. Zack Greinke

Game 3: Wily Peralta vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Game 4: Matt Garza vs. Josh Beckett

While there's obviously a lot more that goes into a playoff win than the name in the "P" spot on the lineup card, that doesn't seem like such great odds to win, does it?

How are you feeling about the Brewers' chances to make the playoffs?

How can you not feel great about their chances? They have the best record in the National League. They're up five games on the Cardinals, six and one-half on the Pirates, and seven on the Reds.  There's a lot of room for error built into the current standings.  At a minimum, they'll take a wild card, but a division win looks well within reach.

Do you believe the Brewers should buy, sell or stand pat at the trade deadline?

They're obviously not selling, and so it's really a choice between doing nothing or doing something.  I don't think you'd find a Brewers fan out there who would advocate doing nothing.  Something is almost always better than nothing, and as I've said, the team is not flawless.

That being said ... what is "something?" I'll answer that in a subsequent question.

If you could make one roster move on the Brewers, what would it be?

I've long been a defender of Marco Estrada in the rotation, but it's time to send him to the bullpen and bring up Jimmy Nelson.  The home run ball can kill you at Miller Park, and Estrada has been very, very lucky (also some skill) that many of his league-leading 26 home runs have been solo shots.  My one reservation about Estrada in the bullpen is that he's actually getting hammered facing hitters for the first time in games, but has then had reasonably good results when facing them in subsequent at-bats.  But with Tyler Thornburg and Jim Henderson on the DL, the bullpen needs another good righty.  Rob Wooten is the obvious guy to send down, though Brandon Kintzler has also been struggling.

QUICK HITS

Best starting pitcher going forward?

Toss-up between Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse.  Gallardo seems to have reinvented himself somewhat as a contact groundball guy, cutting down significantly on strikeouts but also walks.  Lohse is, of course, Mr. Reliable.

Best hitter going forward?

Jonathan Lucroy.  You know how Tom Haudricourt used to call Ryan Braun a hitting savant?  That perfectly describes Lucroy right now.  There's no part of his offensive game that warrants criticism.

Ryan Braun's batting line in the second half?

.300/.355/.500.  Much has been made about Braun's power struggles due to his thumb, and I'm worried as well.  He has eleven home runs, but half of them came in bunches at the beginning of the season.  Braun homered twice in May, three times in June.  I do think he'll adjust, though, being a bit more patient and selective, walking more, and maybe even making better contact when he does decide to go for a pitch.  Pitchers are making him fish right now.

Do the Brewers make a high profile trade?

I don't think so, but you can never, ever count out Doug Melvin.  The Sabathia deal in 2008 and the K-Rod deal in 2011 stunned baseball, and I think a large part of that is because Melvin is just so damn unassuming.  They went totally under the radar until they were completed.  No one wants to believe they just got bested by Doug Melvin.

That being said, the team's greatest needs are a bench bat and another reliable late-inning reliever.  The bench is atrocious right now; basically, the only usable part you have any confidence in whoever is not starting between Rickie Weeks and Scooter Gennett (which, incidentally, is why Weeks should not be moved).  Jeff Bianchi? Elian Herrera? Lyle Overbay? Heck, even Logan Schafer? No thanks.  When a team trots out Irving Falu in crucial run scoring situations as often as the Brewers did (and by that I mean even one), you know there's a problem.

How many wins do the Brewers get in their final 81 games?

43 wins to 38 losses.  Very difficult second-half schedule, with lots of series against the Cardinals and Reds, and a healthy dose of the Giants and Dodgers.  The Brewers will really need to beat up on teams like the Cubs and Padres.

Do the Brewers win the division?

Yes, but just barely.  It will probably come down to the wire with the Cardinals, and I'm sure we'll all be grateful for the five-game cushion they currently have.

Doug Melvin grade through 1st half?

B. He's put together a really stable roster that seems to find lots of different ways to win.  It was wise to give Khris Davis a shot in left, and the Matt Garza deal still looks pretty good.  We haven't mentioned the stellar bullpen, but we should have.  Getting Will Smith for Norichika Aoki was an absolute coup.  But Melvin's biggest test is yet to come; at a minimum, they'll need a reliever and a decent bench bat at the deadline.  He can't simply sit around waiting for the phone to ring, which is what his comments suggest he's doing.

Ron Roenicke grade through 1st half?

I honestly tried, but I can't give him higher than a C. He's a fine player manager, I'm sure, but that fiasco in Atlanta of calling for a reliever with no one warming up cost Roenicke big time.  Which, by the way, an umpire felt compelled to intervene in, cautioning Will Smith not to hurt himself.  Absolutely atrocious management.  And he still hasn't figured out replay or appropriate bunting.

Back at it on America's birthday. Should be a great crowd for this whole series with the first place Brewers in town. Alfredo Simon will get to try and bolster his All-Star argument today against a team he pitched well against earlier this year. He went 7 innings and gave up 3 runs on May 4, but hasn't faced them since.

The Lohser will go for the Brewers tonight, who pitched well in that same game but found his time on the losing end. He'll look for revenge against a team he's pitched well against, and his 2.89 ERA against the Reds is his second best opponent to pitch against, only behind Houston.

Go America!  They're my favorite country!

The A's and Cubs have reportedly agreed on a multi-player trade that sees two starting pitchers headed to Oakland.

Several separate independent sources have confirmed that the Oakland Athletics have acquired starters Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija from the Chicago Cubs in a multi-player and possibly multi-team trade.

Initially reported by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal that both Hammel and Samardzija could both be moving to Oakland, Keith Law of ESPN adds more details. A's shortstop prospect Addison Russell -- the team's 2012 first-round pick and highest-rated farmhand -- is the key piece going to the Cubs, along with pitcher Dan Straily, outfielder Billy McKinney and a player to be named later.

Oakland's serious need for pitching is the driving factor in this move with the team looking to extend the best record in the majors to a deep postseason run. The A's recently picked up pitcher Brad Mills from the Brewers for "cash considerations" totaling one dollar to start for their depleted staff. Mills was acquired after struggling starter Drew Pomeranz literally added injury to insult on his way to the DL when he broke his hand punching a wooden chair following a particularly rough start against the Rangers.

So it's easy to see why they're willing to give up so much for someone like Samardzija.

The pitching didn't explode this 4th

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 4-42
Won 4-0 at Round Rock Express (TEX) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 5-32
Won 4-3 vs Jackson Generals (SEA) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 46-33
Postponed vs Daytona Cubs (CHC)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 45-39
Won 5-3 at Quad Cities River Bandits (HOU) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) 8-10
Won 5-3 at Great Falls Voyagers (CHW) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Matt Garza made the Reds' bats look like they'd been up all night watching fireworks.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Homer Bailey did his best to keep the Cincinnati Reds close in this one, and with a bit of help from his Gold Glove caliber defenders he managed to shut down one of the better offenses in the National League.  Bailey threw 8 innings of 1 run ball, struck out 8, yielded 7 hits, and just f*%king walked 4 guys.  Bailey flashed his good stuff in the process, routinely hitting the upper 90's with his fastball and commanding corners with his curve, and continued the good run of form he's displayed over the last month plus.

Unfortunately, the offense.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Jumbo Diaz, who K'd the first two batters he faced in the 9th on 99 mph fastballs as part of his perfect inning pitched; Zack Cozart, who doubled to keep his season slugging percentage over .300 (at .304, eesh); and Brandon Phillips, for being the only other Red to get a hit on the day (he went 1 for 2 with a walk).

Key Plays

• The Milwaukee Brewers jumped on Bailey early in this one.  Jonathan Lucroy hit a 2-out double to LF in the Top of the 1st, and after Carlos Gomez drew a walk, Aramis Ramirez singled to LF to drive in the Brewers catcher.  Reds trailed, 1-0.
• The Reds saved a pair of runs with their typical stellar defense, one in the 6th and another in the 7th.  Ramirez was thrown out at the plate by a great relay throw to save the first of those runs, and Mark Reynolds was nailed at home by Devin Mesoraco thanks to a great pair of throws from Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.
• Unfortunately, the offense sputtered throughout, clearly intimidated by that awful thing growing off Matt Garza's chin, and though both Billy Hamilton and Todd Frazier launched deep fly balls to the warning track in the Bottom of the 9th, the Reds failed to get much of anything off the Brewers starter.  That was that.  Reds lose, 1-0.

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today's mystery: The Case of the Missing Bats

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 47-43
Lost 4-3 at Round Rock Express (TEX) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 54-33
Lost 7-6 (10 inn.) vs Jackson Generals (SEA) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 46-33
Postponed vs Clearwater Threshers (PHI)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 45-39
Postponed at Quad Cities River Bandits (HOU)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) 9-11
Won Game 1 5-3 (7 inn.) vs Billings Mustangs (CIN) (box / pbp)
Lost Game 2 6-5 (7 inn.) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) 7-6
Lost 7-2 at AZL Reds (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Summer summer summertime. Time to sit back and unwind.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jay Bruce is not dead.  He's getting better.  I think he'll go for a walk around the bases.

The Cincinnati Reds RF had endured an 0 for 26 streak prior to stepping into the batter's box in the Bottom of the 8th today, and he promptly mashed a tie-breaking 2 run dinger to put the good guys ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for good.  All of a sudden, Jay's slugging .400 again, which is higher than Billy Hamilton, Brandon Phillips, and Ryan Ludwick.  For all of that he earns today's JNMHSotG trophy, tank top, and celebratory fridge magnet.  Congrats on the slump buster, Jayzer, and here's to hoping it's a sign of a new hot streak.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Mat Latos, who tossed another stellar game, allowing just 2 runs, 4 hits, and a walk over 8 IP; Devin Mesoraco, who kept Mesoraking with a 3 for 4 day; Todd Frazier, who was 2 for 4; and Brandon Phillips, who went 2 for 3 with a walk.

Key Plays

• The Reds jumped out to a quick start against Yovani Gallardo today thanks to a pair of 1-out singles from Frazier and Phillips in the Bottom of the 1st.  The latter moved Frazier to 3B, and he scored when Bruce grounded to 2B and the Brewers couldn't turn a double play.  Ryan Ludwick was then hit by a pitch to put runners at 1B and 2B, and Bruce scored on a single to RF from Mesoraco.  Reds led, 2-0.
• The Reds thought they'd added another run in the Bottom of the 2nd when Ramon Santiago mashed one - yes, mashed one - deep to LF that dropped when Logan Schafer and a fan collided at the yellow line on top of the wall.  Santiago raced around for what was initially ruled an inside-the-park dinger, but review later overturned that and ruled Santiago out thanks to the guy in RF reaching into the field of play and obstructing Schafer's attempt at a catch.  Whatever.
• Latos had carried a no hitter into the Top of the 5th, but that ended when Aramis Ramirez singled to CF.  The Brewers 3B attempted to stretch it into a double, but he was thrown out by Billy Hamilton.  Milwaukee finally got a run on the board in the Top of the 6th, however, thanks to a leadoff triple by Schafer and a productive grounder that drove him in two batters later.  Reds led, 2-1.
• Freakin' Rickie Weeks paired with Freakin' Schafer to tie the freakin' game in the Top of the 8th, as Schafer doubled with two outs and Weeks hit a pinch-hit single to score him.  That tied things, but Bruce promptly untied them in the Bottom of the 8th with a dinger on an inside fastball that looked nearly impossible to turn on.  BP had walked in front of him, so it was a 2-run dinger, and thanks to Jonathan Broxton's gumption in the Top of the 9th, that was more than enough to take home the W.  Reds win, 4-2!

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Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton will be the lone Marlins' All-Star representative, with Casey McGehee and Henderson Alvarez being excluded. Stanton will also participate in the home run derby.

Giancarlo Stanton's monster year is going to be recognized.

Official All-Star annoucements were made on Sunday evening,  with Stanton being named to the All-Star team as a reserve outfielder. Stanton appeared to be competing with Yasiel Puig for the final outfield spot, but after Puig slipped into second behind Andrew McCutchen, it was Carlos Gomez who Miami's right fielder couldn't surpass.

Stanton was informed by St. Louis Cardinals and National League Manager Mike Matheny that he would be in the starting lineup as the NL's designated hitter.

#Marlins Stanton says he was told he would be the NL DH in All-Star game.

— Tom D'Angelo (@tomdangelo44) July 6, 2014

Stanton, who will also compete in the Home Run Derby, has posted a .307/.405/.568 line to complement 21 home runs and 62 RBIs.

While he was excited about the opportunities he is being given, Stanton was reportedly frustrated that Casey McGehee and Henderson Alvarez didn't make the All-Star team.

"I’m pretty mad," Stanton said. "It still doesn’t make any sense. I know people get gypped every year from it. But this is my first case of being together and seeing the dominance that [McGehee] has been."

Fans voted the Brewers’ Aramis Ramirezto be the N.L.’s starting third baseman while the Reds’ Todd Frazierwas picked by the players as the reserve third baseman.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/06/4221826/miami-marlins-giancarlo-stanton.html#.U7nZ1C39gOE.twitter#storylink=cpy

Alvarez has been the Marlins' most consistent starter since Jose Fernandez went down, posting a 5-3 record with 2.33 ERA, 3.05 FIP and 2.0 WAR in 108 innings pitched.

McGehee has hit notably well behind Stanton, posting a .317/.385/.392 line with just one home run but 52 RBIs before Sunday afternoon's victory over the Cardinals.

Although there are several third base candidates, the questionable move by Matheny was choosing his own third baseman, Matt Carpenter, with one of his picks.

Carpenter has posted a .286/.378/.393 line in 87 games as the St. Louis starting third baseman.

McGehee has had a bounce back year returning from Japan, and has been among the most consistent Marlins both offensively and defensively. He will be on the Final Vote, but said he would not be disappointed if he wasn't selected.

#Marlins McGehee: ""Maybe sometimes Miami gets a bad rap about voting for stuff. Hopefully they can prove everybody wrong"

— Steve Gorten (@sgorten) July 7, 2014

The Marlins in years past have been snubbed because of their record, but the team is two games under five hundred heading into Arizona on Monday night.

Aside from Stanton, the Marlins weren't fully recognized in terms of votes. But where would the Marlins be without Alvarez and McGehee?

Much to the disdain of the trolling Bernie Miklasz, there were no ruffled feathers in Cincinnati after tonight's announcement as the Reds will send four deserving players to the All Star Game in Minneapolis.

The 2014 MLB All Star Game is just over a week away, and it appears that at least four members of the Cincinnati Reds will be on the National League's squad.  The rosters were announced tonight, and Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, and Devin Mesoraco were each selected to represent the Reds in the Midsummer Classic in Minneapolis on Tuesday, July 15th.

Retweet to congratulate our #RedsAll-Stars! #ASGpic.twitter.com/nPzDRggrRu

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 6, 2014

It's the first trip to the game for each of Cueto, Frazier, and Mesoraco, while next week's game will be the third such attended by Chapman.

Cueto and Frazier have been as dominant at their respective positions as any players in baseball for the bulk of the 2014 season, and have been among the presumptive frontrunners for All Star nods for quite sometime.  Mesoraco, too, has mashed his way through league pitching this year, but the only potential roadblock to his selection was a pair of DL stints that limited his overall playing time; obviously, that wasn't enough to keep NL manager Mike Matheny - a former catcher in his own right - from picking the Reds' blossoming backstop.

Chapman, though, may well be the single biggest comeback story of the year in Major League Baseball, as he's recovered from a horrific spring training head injury to put up better stats in 2014 than even his previous lofty totals.  Though he missed roughly a month and a half of the season, he's been the best left-handed reliever (and possibly the best reliever, period) in all of baseball, and there's no doubt he'll get a chance to play an important role should the game be tight in the late innings.

Unfortunately, neither Alfredo Simon or Billy Hamilton made the cut despite each being fairly qualified in their own right, and both of them also fell short of MLB's hyped-up final roster spot voting.  While that's a tad disheartening for those that have watched both excel through the first half of the season, it can hardly be called a huge surprise given the relative successes of their peers who were included.

Todd Frazier's selection also means he's got a bit more realistic chance to be included in the upcoming Home Run Derby.  His selection by NL team captain Troy Tulowitzki has been bandied about for some time, and while there's no requirement to be on the actual All Star team to be included in the event (see Yoenis Cespedes, for instance), players are generally more likely to get the nod if they're already taking part in the weekend's events.

Of course, there's always the caveat that players currently on the squad may miss the game due to injury, so there could potentially be a late addition from the Reds, though that's not exactly the most likely scenario.

Congrats, guys, and we'll look forward to watching you lead the National League to a victory so that Game 7 of the 2014 World Series can be contested at Great American Ball Park!

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Today's lessons include the All-Star roster, a roster move, and much more from the holiday weekend.

This Weekend's Results

Reds 4, Brewers 2

Kyle Lohse gave up four runs in five innings, the first two from a Billy Hamilton home run followed by single runs in the fourth and fifth innings. Meanwhile, the Brewers offense struggled, only able to put up single runs in the seventh and eight innings.

Brewers 1, Reds 0

The Brewers got on the board early with an RBI single from Aramis Ramirez. That was all they could get off of Reds starter Homer Bailey, who pitched eight innings and allowed only that single run. However, Matt Garza was better, pitching a complete game two-hit shutout to get the Brewers the win.

Reds 4, Brewers 2

Yovani Gallardo put together a solid start, allowing two runs in six innings. The Brewers offense was held in check until the fifth inning, when they got their first hit. They tied the game at 2 from runs by Logan Schafer. However, Jay Bruce hit a two-run home run off of Will Smith to go ahead 4-2, and Jonathan Broxton closed out the game for the Reds.

Four Brewers were named to the NL All-Star Team.

The MLB All-Star rosters were named last night, and four Brewers ended up making the team. Carlos Gomez and Aramis Ramirez were both named as starters to the NL team, Jonathan Lucroy made the team as a reserve, and Francisco Rodriguez was added to the pitching staff. On the other side, candidate from the Brewers left off the roster were Kyle Lohse, Zach Duke, Will Smith, and Ryan Braun. There's still a chance that one of those pitchers could make the roster as replacements are needed, but for now, those are your four selections to the team.

Logan Schafer made his return to Milwaukee.

Going back to Friday of last week, the Brewers made a roster move in the wake of Khris Davis' shoulder injury. They recalled Logan Schafer from Nashville and demoted Elian Herrera. The Brewers needed another true outfielders with Davis' injury, and Schafer had been playing well in Triple-A. He ended up playing 26 of 27 innings over the weekend, getting the start in left on Friday, then replacing Ryan Braun in right on Saturday and Sunday. He went 2-for-9 over the weekend with two runs scored.

Cram Session

More from BCB

• Our midseason review series of the Brewers continued on Thursday and Friday. My take on the season was posted on Thursday, and Nate joined in with his take on Friday.
• The Brewers are in their final stretch of games before the All-Star Break. On Friday, I looked at the importance behind these 10 games for the Brewers.

Gilbert Lara Signing

• The Brewers have not officially announced the GIlbert Lara signing yet, and Derek Harvey speculates it might be because the Brewers are trying to gain some cap space.
• Wendy Thurm of FanGraphs looked at the spending going on in the international free agent period and says the new limits aren't stopping teams from spending as much as they want.
• Is it a mistake to give a Dominican teenager millions of dollars? Enrique Bakemeyer of The Brewers Bar looks at this possibility.

All-Star Game

• Adam McCalvy reports that Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun spoke to Troy Tulowitzki about getting Gomez in the Home Run Derby.
• On Saturday, Bryan Grosnick of Beyond the Box Score revealed their staff's choices for the NL All-Star starters.
• Badgernoonan of Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball has a proposal on how to break the All-Star Game.

Other Notes

• Ryan Braun left Saturday's game with back spasms, but Adam McCalvy reports that Braun believes it is a minor issue.
• A home run call was overruled in Sunday's game by replay, ruling that fan interference prevented an out from being recorded.
• Jonathan Lucroy has been performing very well at the plate lately, and McCalvy notes that he is the only player with more extra-base hits than strikeouts.
• Grant Brisbee of SB Nation presented his midseason NL awards, which include a couple of Brewers.
• Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker has a trade deadline preview for the Brewers.
• Richard Justice of MLB.com looks at how the Brewers are an example of competitive balance this season.
• Mike Oz of Big League Stew reports that MLB has not finished its Biogenesis investigation, and is currently investigating agents with clients tied to Biogenesis.
• Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs has the month of June's wildest pitches and wildest swings, which involves two pitches from two Brewers pitchers.
• In power rankings, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel kept the Brewers at #1 in the National League.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• Alec Dopp put together his June list of hot & not minor-league players on Thursday.
• Hunter Morris of Nashville is expected to be out for six weeks with a broken arm. Adam McCalvy has some notes on Morris' injury as well as a few other minor-league injuries.
• Jim Henderson has started a rehab assignment with the Arizona rookie team.
• The PCL All-Star rosters were announced on Thursday, and Jimmy Nelson and Donovan Hand of the Nashville Sounds were named to the roster. Marcus Young of Miller Park Prospects has the details.
• The Brewers organization announced their June awards, splitting pitcher of the month between Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Williams, and giving player of the month to Orlando Arcia.
• Michael Trzinski of Reviewing the Brew continued his series of the top Brewers farm teams with the 2012 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.
• Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel looked back at the 2009 draft and some of the talent that the Brewers found there.

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

• Phillies @ Pirates
  Friday:Pirates 8, Phillies 2
  Saturday:Pirates 3, Phillies 2
  Sunday:Pirates 6, Phillies 2
• Marlins @ Cardinals
  Friday:Cardinals 3, Marlins 2
  Saturday:Marlins 6, Cardinals 5
  Sunday:Marlins 8, Cardinals 4
• Cubs @ Nationals
  Friday: Cubs 7, Nationals 2
  Saturday:Nationals 13, Cubs 0
  Sunday:Nationals 2, Cubs 1

Today's Division Games

• Cubs (Edwin Jackson) @ Reds (Mike Leake) - 6:10 pm
• Pirates (Charlie Morton) @ Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) - 7:15 pm

Today's Action

The Brewers start a seven-game home stand to finish off the season before the All-Star Break. They open up with a four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Game one features Cole Hamels against Marco Estrada. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Erik Bacharach of MLB.com has the preview.

Jimmy Nelson has been putting up video game numbers in the relatively hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, he waits for an opportunity in the Milwaukee rotation as the team continues to lead the NL Central. When could we see him, and what could he do for fantasy owners when that happens?

Throughout the minor league season, the prospect staff here at Fake Teams will look at a number of prospects for your fantasy and dynasty teams. Some will be prospects that you'll see this year in the majors, while others are interesting targets in longer term formats. Up today is a prospect who will start the AAA All-Star Game in a couple weeks, right handed starter Jimmy Nelson of the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Basics

Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 245 lbs.
On 40-Man Roster: Yes 
Options Remaining: 2 (2014)
DOB: 6/5/1989 (Age 25 Season)

His History

Nelson was drafted by the Reds out of high school, but did not sign as a 39th round pick. After attending the University of Alabama for three years, the Brewers drafted Nelson in the 2nd round in 2010, and signed him to a bonus of just over half a million dollars. The organization sent him to the Pioneer League after signing, where he threw 26 innings and struck out 33 while walking 13. He was sent to full-season Low-A for the 2011 season, and had a lackluster stat line there (120 K, 65 BB, 4.65 ERA). Ranked by Baseball America as the #10 prospect in the Brewers' organization after that year, they noted that he had a wide-range of potential outcomes at this point.

The Brewers moved Nelson to High-A to start the 2012 season, and started to deliver on the potential that the team saw. In 13 starts in Brevard County, Nelson struck out 77, walked 25, and allowed just 63 hits across 81 innings before a midseason promotion to AA Huntsville. Over 10 starts there, he struggled with his control (37 walks), but allowed just 34 hits over 46 innings.

He returned to AA in 2013, and showed better form again (72 K, 15 BB, 63 Hits allowed in 69 innings) before a promotion to AAA Nashville. As with previous promotions, Nelson struggled with his control in his first go-around at the level, walking 50 over 83 innings. When the minor league season ended, Nelson was added to the 40-man roster, and added to the bullpen, even making a spot start of five innings in the las week of the season.

With the signing of Matt Garza this offseason, there wasn't necessarily a spot for Nelson to pitch in Milwaukee this year. He was called up to make a spot start this year, but has been otherwise in Nashville, and has been dominant there. So far this year, with a 10-2 record with a 1.56 ERA, 110 strikeouts, and 30 walks over 104 innings there.

The Scouting Report

Nelson features a four-pitch repertoire consisting of both a two and four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. The two-seamer is considered his best pitch, which sits in the low 90's and helps him to generate an absolute ton of ground balls (60% so far this year per MLBFarm.com). Both the slider and changeup are considered to have the potential to be at least average offerings or better, although reports during the offseason noted that they still needed work.

There are questions regarding his ability to limit his walks, although he seems to have those under control at the moment at AAA. He has shown a pattern in the past of struggling with this when reaching a new level of the minors, so it's possible we see this happen again when he gets to the majors. There have been reports in the past that he has had issues repeating his delivery consistently, which does not surprise me given his height and build. His frame is ideal for eating innings, but that quantity will also be limited based on his efficiency.

What Can He Do For Your Fantasy Team?

With Nelson, it really comes down to how well he contains his control issues. If he's the pitcher we've seen so far this year at AAA, you're looking at a potential top 30 starting pitcher, generating both high strikeout and groundball totals, an excellent combination. If that happens, a sub-3.75 ERA with around 175 strikeouts and a WHIP around 1.20-1.25 over a full season workload (180 innings in this case) is possible.

If the control problems return, and cannot be resolved, it's entirely possible still that we see Nelson move into the bullpen permanently, where he could provide value either as a back-end of the bullpen arm with a strikeout rate or even potentially as a long-term answer as a closer.

When Could We See Him in the Majors?

Nelson's path to the starting rotation for the Brewers seems to hinge almost entirely on whether Marco Estrada pitches well or not. The Brewers are leading the NL Central right now, and as a competitive team may be less inclined to give Estrada a long leash should he struggle on a consistent basis. I do think that by next season Nelson is locked into their rotation, but may end up working out of the bullpen this year if they continue to run Estrada out there.

Conclusions

Nelson has pitched about as well as anyone could hope to expect so far this year, and seems likely to get a chance to pitch in the rotation this season. The upside there is that he gets his shot and pitches well enough to cement his spot for next year, while providing value to fantasy owners in all formats. Should he get called up soon, he has the potential to provide more value for the rest of the season than nearly any other prospect left in the minors. Just know that there is the potential for a few blow-up starts if his control fails him, and keep that in mind when running him out in your lineup for every start.

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Reference
Baseball Prospectus
The Baseball Cube
Fangraphs
MLB Farm
MILB.com
Brew Crew Ball
Youtube

The Brewers recently sent scouts to Jake Peavy's start for the Red Sox, but it's not clear that they were there to observe Boston's starter. For what it's worth, this makes two Red Sox games they've had scouts at.

There's been a lot of talk here and else where on the interweb about kicking Marco Estrada out of the rotation in favor of Jimmy Nelson. Even though I believe Estrada can still bounce back, it's certainly possible they could improve the rotation by replacing him. I saw this on Twitter suggesting they Brewers might be looking into Jake Peavy. Here is the original tweet discussed in that article.

Even if there's room for improvement, I'm not sure Jake Peavy is the answer. His peripherals aren't very good this year (17.8 K%, 8.8 BB%, .269 BAA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.49 HR/9) and neither are the results: 4.82 ERA and a 4.81 FIP. Marco Estrada has given up even more home runs than Peavy, but Estrada's K%, BB%, BAA, and WHIP are all better suggesting he could see some positive regression (and I'd suggest he currently is).

Peavy would likely be better in the National League. His K% could see a jump, but his home run issue has existed long enough to suggest it's part of his skill set now. That won't be helped by pitching in Miller Park. His contract is reasonable. He gets $14.5 million in total for 2014. That's mid-rotation money which is what Peavy is on a good day and it's possible money would come in from Boston. There also could have been a player option ($15M) for 2015 but he's going to miss the IP requirement, so he'd be a rental for sure.

To be perfectly honest, we don't even know if the Brewers scouts were there to check in on Peavy at all. Cafardo's tweet only mentions that Brewers scouts are there. This is actually the 2nd Red Sox game I'm aware of that the Brewers sent scouts to. The other one was a Jon Lester start. That's interesting because really, they could be looking at any number of players. The two guys who seem to make the most sense are Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa (Will Middlebrooks makes sense too, but I'd be surprised if he was available).

The Brewers want a reliever. Doug Melvin has even said he's always on the lookout for them, though more recently admits there's not a pressing need. That could be just GM-speak though. They're set with lefties, but could benefit from a good right handed reliever. Both Red Sox relievers are excellent pitchers and have been for the previous 2-3 seasons. Uehara is striking out 34.9% of batters faced, walking 3.4%. Opposing batters are hitting .170 off him and he has a 0.73 WHIP! His 1.13 HR/9 is maybe a little higher than you'd like, but he's still managing a 1.36 ERA and a 2.56 FIP. Uehara's contract is over at the end of this year and he's making $4,250,000 this season.

Doug Melvin downplays likelihood of any significant deal

Doug Melvin discussed his plans as the trade deadline looms within a month. Some of his thoughts are not ideal.

Tazawa is 11 years younger than Uehara and has two years left of control. He'll enter his second arbitration season next year and is due a solid raise from the $1,275,000 he's getting this year. He's striking out 26.1% of batters faced, walking 5.6%. Opposing batters are hitting .239 off him and he has a 1.14 WHIP. Those aren't near as good as Uehara's numbers, but they're still very good. They're in line with his stats from the previous 2 seasons so there's no reason to believe they aren't sustainable (beside the regularly used, and sometimes wrong, caveat that relievers are volatile assets).

Jake Peavy doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. He's not that good of a pitcher, but if they want to replace Marco Estrada, and can get Peavy for cheap it might be worth it. That's assuming Estrada doesn't bounce back and they don't want to call up Jimmy Nelson for whatever reason. Either one of Uehara or Tazawa do make sense. However, they could both be rather costly as Uehara is an elite reliever and Tazawa is a strong reliever with 2 years of control after this season. Depending on the cost, I'd be pretty happy with either of them.

Once again, the Brewers could be looking at any one of these guys, all of them, or none of them. I have no inside sources or anything like that. I'm basically just guessing using the information at my disposal which I've provided for you. So, what do you think? Would you be pleased to see the Brewers trade for one of these guys? Hate the idea? Let me know!

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

Contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts

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July has been rough so far, but the Phillies should provide some relief.

The Brewers are 1-4 in July. It's only 5 games so it doesn't really matter, but it's been a rough week for us fans. Lucky for us and the Crew, the Phillies are coming to town for what could be a very fun 4 game series.

The Phillies offense has been pretty terrible. Coming into games on Sunday they were tied for 5th worst in MLB with 3.77 runs scored per game. Here is how bad it's been: Marlon Byrd leads the team in offense with 266/317/497, 124 wRC+. Chase Utley (286/344/432, 113 wRC+) and Carlos Ruiz (257/363/357, 106 wRC+) are also reasonable offensive threats. After them it's pretty ugly.

Despite his age, Jimmy Rollins is still a solid defender. Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz are also good defenders. Outside of those three though, the defense isn't terribly effective. Overall the Phillies rank 26th in Fangraphs defensive metric.

The Philies bullpen ranks 21st in MLB by RA9-WAR (that's WAR derived from runs allowed per 9 innings. I like it better than regular fWAR which is derived using FIP. I won't get into it too much here, but this is the first time I'm using RA9-WAR so I thought I'd just mention it briefly). That ranking feels misleading because their top three are pretty good.

Jonathan Papelbon is rolling with a 22.9 K%, 6.9 BB%, .185 BAA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 1.35 ERA. Jake Diekman is walking too many guys (9.4%), but he's striking out 31.2% of total batters faced. That's darned good and it's better than his 4.39 ERA suggests. Antonio Bastardo shows why Diekman deserves better that his ERA indicates. Bastardo is walking 14.1% of  total batters faced. Bastardo has a 3.60 ERA though. It's because he's also striking out a lot (29.4%) and giving up few hits (1.90 BAA).

Mario Hollands is a great example of why I've begun to stay away from fWAR for relievers. Hollands has a 0.0 fWAR and a 3.88 FIP, but his ERA is 2.70. He's not walking tons though 8.1 BB% isn't exactly good. The "problem" is that he's not striking guys out a lot (18.7%). He's not an elite reliever, but Bastardo and Diekman each are worth 0.5 fWAR and I'm not sure they're truly that much better.

(sidenote: FIP is meant to tell us how well pitcher's control things that are within their control and ignores things that are out of their control [ie: fielding]. For what it is, it's fine. I just think it shouldn't be used for relievers nor for pitch-to-contact types).

The only truly bad reliever in their pen right now is B.J. Rosenberg. His 6.74 ERA is well deserved as he's done nothing well.

Monday July 7th, 7:10 pm CT: Marco Estrada vs Cole Hamels

Hamels is good. Fortunately for the Brewers he's the only good starting pitcher the Phillies are throwing out there. He's got a 24.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, .232 BAA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 2.98 ERA/3.23 FIP. That's all well in line with his career stat line. The guy is good and the Brewers are going to have to be on their game if they want to win this one.

Of note for the Brewers: Marco Estrada is coming off of two pretty solid starts. He only allowed 2 runs apiece to the Nationals and Blue Jays. Phillies are nowhere near as good offensively. This could be a very nice game for Estrada.

Tuesday July 8th, 7:10 pm CT: Wily Peralta vs Kyle Kendrick

Kendrick is mediocre. His 4.12 ERA mirrors his FIP. He earned it by striking out only 14.6% of batters faced and only walked 6.7%. His 2.60 BAA isn't very good and neither is his 1.33 WHIP. He does a reasonable job keeping the ball on the ground (46.0 GB%) and an okay job keeping it in the park (0.91 HR/9). Kendrick and Hamels throw the same 4 pitches so I wonder if he'll suffer or has been suffering from teams getting used to the mix? I don't know, it's just a though.

Of note for the Brewers: Peralta is in the midst of his roughest stretch of the year. He's allowed 4 runs in the last 3 games and 3 runs in the two before those. I have confidence he'll turn it around and there's a good chance it starts with this game.

Wednesday July 9th, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Lohse vs Roberto Hernandez

Carmona, I mean Hernandez has been the Phillies worst starter. He's not striking guys out (16 K%), he's walking a bunch (11.7 BB%) and he's BAA is a meciocre 2.51. His 1.52 WHIP is really bad. He does have a very solid 51.4 GB%. I'm terribly worried about this guy facing the Brewers, though Jean Segura is going to have a bad night against almost any GB-type pitcher.

Thursday July 10th, 1:10 pm CT: Matt Garza vs David Buchanan

David Buchanan is in the middle of his first season in the MLB. It's not going very well (4.82 ERA/4.89 FIP). His 15.0 K% isn't good but his 2.75 BB% is. His .264 BAA and 1.33 WHIP are below average. He's getting beat up by home runs a bit, but his minor league numbers suggest that won't last. I think there's a good chance the Brewers tee off on this kid.

Of note for the Brewers: Matt Garza is coming off his best start of the season. As I'm sure you all remember he threw a complete game shutout against the Reds. It's unlikely he can top that effort, but I'm hopeful he'll have another good start against this anemic offense.

Conclusion

The Brewers really needed to face a team like the Phillies right now. Or maybe I just need them to. They still have the second best record in baseball, but they've been on a bit of slide to start out July. I'm not panicking or anything, I just want to see another good stretch of games. Enter Philadelphia. The Phillies are awful in every aspect except their pen. I'm pretty confident the Brewers rotation can deftly handle their hitters.  I think there's a very real chance the Brewers take 3 out of 4 and if Estrada has a good game I'm not ruling out a sweep. It's rare I bring up the sweep because, well, they're rare. The Phillies are just that bad.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

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• Brewers 2, Reds 4: Bruce cooks the Brewers' goose
• Minor League Notes, 2014-07-06
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• Minor League Notes, 2014-07-05
• Brewers 2, Reds 4: A loss on Independence Day

Over the next couple of weeks, we'll profile eight players we deem trade candidates for the Rockies as the deadline approaches. Today, we explore the possibility of selling high on a fifth outfielder who has had a decent first half.

The Rockies have fallen so far out of contention that, even with the impending returns of several key players, it's tough to imagine a scenario in which they make a play for a Wild Card berth come September. That's why, as painful as it might be, the team should opt to establish itself as a seller at the trade deadline.

Colorado seemingly never has a real plan at the deadline. That can be both a good and a bad thing; if a team goes on a buying spree, it can risk mortgaging its future by overpaying for immediate help. However, failure to sell high on assets -- especially when chances of a postseason berth are minimal -- can similarly handicap a team both financially and talent-wise.

The Rockies have several options if they decide to make the right decision this month. The first of which is Brandon Barnes, a fifth outfielder who has likely improved his market value by playing well-above-average defense and coming up with clutch hits.

Barnes has not lit the world on fire during his short tenure with the Rockies, entering Monday hitting just .254/.300/.391. However, the 28-year-old California native has excelled in pinch-hit situations, boasting a .303/.343/.545 line in 38 plate appearances. He also hits righties well as evidenced by his .480 slugging percentage. Those strengths could make Barnes a coveted bench option for contending NL teams such as the Brewers and Braves who are lacking in that area.

Of course, Barnes has one giant red flag, and it's one that would almost certainly scare away less desperate teams. He has -- SURPRISE! -- hit very well at Coors Field, but Barnes has been awful on the road, posting a .189/.232/.289 line. Like most Rockies players, he falls somewhere in between his tremendous home production and disappointing road line, but it's certainly not out of the question to be wary about a guy who is a career .239/.286/.345 hitter.

Barnes makes the league minimum and isn't even eligible for arbitration until after the 2016 season, so the Rockies definitely don't need to move him. However, if the team makes some calls about him and finds a suitor in desperate need of a bench bat, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the team to get some real value in return if Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett play their cards right.

Brad Mills has been designated for assignment to make room for Jason Hammel on the Athletics' active roster, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports:

#Athletics designate LHP Brad Mills for assignment. Went six innings in two of his three starts, 4.41 ERA in 16 1/3 IP overall.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 7, 2014

Jim Johnson remains on the active roster, presumably as long reliever, and perhaps to avoid him landing with another team (like the Angels) and suddenly pitching well against the Athletics with a change of scenery.

#Athletics hope that Mills clears waivers, they'd love to have him at Sacramento. He might have been too useful with A's to clear tho.

— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) July 7, 2014

Minor transactions and suspensions

Earlier today, Nick Buss cleared waivers and was outrighted to the Sacramento River Cats. Buss was removed from the 40-man roster on Saturday to clear 40-man space for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

The decision to designate Mills for assignment allowed the A's to claim outfielder Kenny Wilson off waivers today from the Toronto Blue Jays and option him to Sacramento. His bat is horrible but his glove is supposedly good.

Herschel Powell, better known as "Boog," received a "50-game suspension without pay after testing positive for an Amphetamine in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program." The outfielder had recently been promoted to the Class-A Advanced Stockton Ports, where he was batting .396/.463/.500 in 54 plate appearances.

Finally, the Athletics traded international slot 57 (valued at $339,000) to the Milwaukee Brewers for Rodolfo Fernandez. Google tells me that Fernandez is a shooting guard/small forward for the Spanish professional basketball team Real Madrid Baloncesto. Further research informs that Fernandez is actually a 24-year-old Cuban right handed pitcher in his second American professional season. With the Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers of the Midwest League, Fernandez sports a 2.53 ERA with 75 strikeouts and 25 walks in 92⅔ innings.

Milwaukee deals away the minor league right-hander for additional international bonus slot money.

The Oakland Athletics have acquired right-handed pitcher Rodolfo Fernandez from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for an international bonus slot, the teams have announced. The Brewers receive international bonus slot no. 57, which carries an assigned value of $339,000.

Fernandez, a 24-year-old reliever out of Cuba, has a 2.87 ERA and 1.79 K/BB in just over 31 innings with the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers this season, after posting a 2.35 ERA in 61.1 innings for the club last year. He's likely nothing more than organizational depth.

The deal has a much larger impact for the Brewers, who are set on acquiring additional bonus pool money to sign Dominican shortstop Gilbert Lara without suffering from the ramifications (which you can find here) of going over their allotted pool.

Gilbert Lara money RT @susanslusser Athletics traded International Slot #57, worth $339,000, to Brewers for pitcher Rodolfo Fernandez.

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) July 7, 2014

Lara, ranked by Baseball America as the fifth best international prospect for this year's July 2nd signing period, has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Brewers worth $3 to $3.2 million, which would blow away their original bonus pool of $2,611,800. By adding Oakland's slot, they raise their allotment to $2,950,800, which is still just under $250,000 short of Lara's reported bonus and would put them 8.4% over their pool, prohibiting them from signing a player for more than $500,000 during next year's signing period.

Milwaukee may not be done adding to their pool, as teams are allowed to trade for as much as 50% of their original allotment. The Brewers are also seeking additional money to sign more than just Lara, enabling them to boost a farm system that many evaluators rate as one of the worst in baseball.

Oakland hasn't been particularly active on the international market so far this year, so it's understandable why they'd be so willing to give up a valuable bonus slot for an organizational reliever. Oakland is one of just three teams that has yet to officially sign an international player this period (which started last week), joining the Reds and Brewers (who obviously already have an agreement in place with Lara).

This is getting historic, you guys.

This may or may not count as news, but Marco Estrada started on Monday night and allowed a home run. It was his 27th of the season, easily the most in all of baseball.

Assuming he remains in the starting rotation the rest of the season, Estrada has a real chance to allow more home runs than most guys would ever dream of. His 27 this season are already tied for the 31st most in franchise history, and he's the first Brewer to reach that mark since Yovani Gallardo in 2011.

If the Brewers don't decide to drop the giant foot on Marco Estrada's Flying Circus, then Braden Looper's franchise record of 39 home runs allowed in a season is most certainly in jeopardy. So is Jose Lima's National League record of 48, and Bert Blyleven's MLB record of 50, a mark which has stood alone for nearly 30 years.

What follows is a quick look at where Estrada stands after 18 starts, as compared to the three record holders he's closing in on:

Hit Tracker won't have the official distance on Utley's home run until sometime tomorrow morning, but unless this ball traveled less than 315 feet Estrada will pass another milestone: The two-mile mark. Estrada's first 26 home runs of the season traveled a combined 10,245 feet, leaving him just 315 feet shy of 10,560.

Estrada has allowed more home runs this season than reliever Bill Castro did in his entire Brewers career. Castro logged 411 innings over seven seasons as a Brewer between 1974-1980.

The Brewers have 72 games remaining, meaning Estrada could have 14 starts left if he stays in the rotation. The next one is tentatively scheduled for Saturday, when he would face the Cardinals. Estrada has allowed seven home runs in 13 career appearances (eight starts) against St. Louis, and no current Cardinal has homered off him more than once.

For more from Kyle, check out the new Frosty Mug at Milwaukee Magazine, follow him on Twitter @BrewFrostyMugand like his new Facebook page.