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Use it or lose it: It's time to get Wei-Chung Wang involved.

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The Brewers' improbable run of success is wonderful, but it's asking a lot out of the back end of the bullpen to carry the daily workload. Maybe the Taiwanese southpaw should start helping.

It is becoming obvious that the Brewers are going to be competitive this season. They're beating it into our skulls as subtly as Khris Davis' repeated attempts at bludgeoning high fastballs with the Witch King mace he lugs across home plate 12 times a night (assuming 4 ABs here).

They currently sit at 20-7. They will not stop winning. In the universe's demand for order, the Brewers' best offensive players are dropping like flies to awkward not-quite-DL-injuries to force some short-term regression to the mean. Still, the Brewers brush off reasonable probability with a chuckle and just keep winning anyway.

Accordingly, the need for relief work in high-leverage innings is getting rather comical. The Brewers have been leading or tied to begin the 7th inning 19 of 27 times so far. That's a lot. Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in 7 of the last 10 games. From April 12-23, Tyler Thornburg pitched in 7 of 12. From the 13th-23rd Will Smith appeared in 6 games. You can't really blame Roenicke; each has been super-effective. Who wouldn't summon a Charizard to counter a trio of Venosaur or a pinch-Victreebell?

But even Charizard has only so many fire punches to throw. And it's been throwing:


GRankTied with (TW)
IP (0 GS)Rank
TWPitches (0 GS)Rank
TW
Francisco Rodriguez
16T-1st216.0T-3rd124812th
0
Will Smith
15T-2nd212.1T-14th822324th
0
Tyler Thornburg
14T-3rd1314.2T-7th2209T-34th
1
Zach Duke
13T-4th2012.1T-14th8191T-39th
1
Jim Henderson
13T-4th2010.2T-17th9170T-57th
3

Another way to put this: 5 of the 41 most used major league relievers in terms of game appearances are Brewers. The good news is that as the eyes drift to the right, the situation looks a little less scary. It appears the physical toll, in terms of quantity, is less than the appearance total would indicate. Individual outings (for Smith in particular) have been relatively short and/or efficient. However, not every pitch or inning is the same; high-leverage pitches are often argued to cost more in terms of physical exertion than cruising through a couple mopup innings.

Part of the problem is that Brandon Kintzler just missed some time with a short stint on the DL. Henderson was on the shelf for a short period to begin the season. Another is that the Brewers have, in effect, a 6-man bullpen. Rule 5 pick Wei-Chung Wang is not treated like a major league pitcher. He's more like an intern than a full-time employee. Except firing this intern means he is immediately re-hired by your competitor. If you don't let him try to sell some dishwashers he might be selling your clients whole kitchen sets in a couple years.

I am of the mind that there aren't too many teams that can afford to carry dead weight on the major league roster and get away with it (for an example, see: 2011 Brewers). It relies on consistently elite production from a few or consistently very good production from many to counteract the negative pull coming from the bottom of the roster. The Brewers are off to a great start, yes, but I'm not sure how comfortably they slide in to one of those categories.

I don't think it's much of a reach to speculate that Roenicke and Melvin do not see eye-to-eye on this. The tension is likely quelled by the 20-7 start, but it is clear that Melvin wants Wang in the organization but Roenicke does not want to use him. I think Roenicke would much prefer Alfredo Figaro or Rob Wooten. Maybe even Donovan Hand. Because he's familiar with them. He knows they can be effective. He knows they can bunt.

But no matter Roenicke's perceptions, Wang is on the roster of a very competitive team. If he's going to remain there, he ought to be able to contribute on the field in some capacity. Occasionally he may need to pick up a mid-to-high-leverage batter or inning or help keep a game tied in extra innings when his coworker(s) needs a day off. Most importantly - they can't know if he can handle it if he never gets a chance to try it.

I believe the appropriate course of action to be straightforward: use Wang as a major league baseball player. If the perfect opportunity for feet-wetting doesn't come along, like it hasn't, give him a chance or two to hold a lead. If he falters repeatedly, at least the Brewers can feel justified in sending him back to Pittsburgh. If not, Roenicke might just have another weapon out of the bullpen - like a fresh Charmander eager to evolve to his full potential. This would be especially nice when one or more of the above standout relievers start to inevitably regress to human-type production and Roenicke's allegiances start shifting.

The worst possible scenario is that Roenicke continues to refuse to use him and the Brewers cut him loose before ever finding out how effective he can be. Then devoted Brewers fans like us end up hunting for Pirates affiliates' box scores for several years quietly and reluctantly rooting against his success. Blech. No thanks.

Let's hope that no matter the result, we see more of Wei-Chung Wang very soon.

Oh, and happy Wei-Chung Wang Wednesday.


Why early wins are so important

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A win is a win is a win, whether it's in April, July, or September. But strategically, April wins may be most important for surprise contenders like the Brewers.

Back when the Brewers started off 5-2, I talked in this space about how that information needs to be factored in to update expectations. The point of that post was that you can't assume wins will somehow "balance out", using the analogy that you don't start expecting a coin to land on heads 40% of the time after you flip heads 6 times out of 10. There's also been talk about correcting the fallacy that games in April somehow mean less than games in September. That's obviously not true.

But I would like to propose some sort of corollary to the baseball fan doctrines "gambler's fallacy" and "all games are important". My concept is that if you're going to have a super-hot month, it's actually far more beneficial to have that stretch earlier in the season than later.

Baseball owners and general managers have to make a decision near the trade deadline, which tend to fall into 3 categories: going for it, standing pat, or selling. They operate as though they don't know what the true talent of their team is, until that information is gradually revealed game by game. By July they balance their pre-season expectation with the actual team's record and make a decision about whether they should go for it or not.

The 2012 Brewers are an excellent example of this point. That team led the National League in runs and had a reasonable rotation, but the bullpen was historically bad, and they struggled out of the gate. The Brewers were 11-12 through April, 23-28 through May, and 35-42 through June. Even though the team had high expectations prior to the year, after a poor start in July, Doug Melvin moved the Brewers into the "seller" category and traded Zack Greinke to the Angels. The Brewers then went on a tear in August and September, moving within a couple of wins of a playoff spot and finishing the year 83-79.

How might that season have played out differently if the Brewers month-by-month record had been inverted? It's a silly hypothetical for a number of reasons, but let's say that they began their season 47-39 into mid-July (which was actually their post-July record that year). What changes?

First of all, it's likely the Greinke trade does not happen, or if it does, Melvin insists in a more major-league ready haul than the one he ended up getting. Secondly, he likely makes at least one aggressive move to improve the pitching staff, as he has shown a tendency to do whenever the Brewers are within striking distance of a playoff spot (the Scott Linebrink and K-Rod trades come to mind, not to mention CC Sabathia). Maybe the Brewers make the playoffs that year, maybe they don't-- but the point is that the team gets better by keeping Greinke and adding someone else, rather than maintaining or getting worse.

That gets at my central point-- up to now we have been talking about assuming that the Brewers are roughly a .500 team that has played above their ability so far. Based on that logic, we could reasonably project a wins total in the high 80s and a fairly good chance at a playoff spot. But with every win in April and May, two things happen:

- We become more confident that this team is actually better than a .500-caliber squad

- We increase the odds that they move into the "buyer" (or at the very least, "stand-pat") category

Baseball's dynamics are such that the best teams generally get better and the worst teams get worse after the trade deadline. And it's not always true that improving the team requires mortgaging important future talent-- acquiring guys like Rodriguez and Ray Durham in 2008 made tangible differences to the Brewers teams they were added to, but cost little in terms of prospects. Getting hot in April, rather than September, means there's a better chance your GM makes a move to actually make your team better at some point during the year-- and so contrary to the usual logic that early season games are not all that important, for a fringe contender April wins may be more important than September wins after all.

Recap: Birdie bats wake, bop Brewers in 9-3 victory

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Every Cardinal starter reached base today in a long overdue offensive explosion.

As the Cardinal organization celebrated its rich past by revealing the inaugural four members of its team Hall of Fame, the current team scored a big victory over the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The win closed out April by pulling the season series between the teams even, while putting the birds back over .500.

The Game

A Jon Jay double (1 of 3 hits on the day for him) was followed by a Matt Holliday RBI single in the 1st inning. Shelby Miller gave up the lead in the 2nd inning when Mark Reynolds homered with Khris Davis on base (video). Another homer, this time by Carlos Gomez, extended the Brewers' lead to 3-1 in the 3rd inning (video). In the bottom of that inning, with Jon Jay and Matt Holliday on base, Matt Adams crushed a knee-high curve into the left-center stands (video). From that point on, the Cardinals piled on with notable contributions from Allen Craig (4 for 5 with a (homer) and a pair of doubles), a double by Shelby Miller plating Greg Garcia after his first career hit, and (this hit) by Jon Jay which cleaved Scooter Gennett, much to my delight.


Source: FanGraphs

Notes

  • Matt Garza bruised his thumb batting in the 4th and left after giving up a walk the following inning.
  • Each starter was hit on the derriere with a come-backer early in the game. The ball off of Shelby shifted softly to short-stop Jhonny Peralta, who was able to throw out the runner. The butt ball off of Garza ended up in the outfield and went as a hit. Perhaps Shelby needs to work on his glutes.
  • Backup catcher and 1B Martin Maldonado pitched the 8th for the Brewers and allowed just a single among several hard-hit balls.
  • Allen Craig is still in pain or has no confidence in his speed. He declined to tag up from 2nd to 3rd on a long fly to right with no prior outs when the outcome of game was still very much in question.
  • In a move that Mike Matheny should patent, Shelby Miller batted for himself in the bottom of the 6th and then was pulled in the 7th after just a lone batter.
  • Randy Choate and Eric Fornataro handled mop-up duties.
Shelby

Well. I last wrote about a Shelby Miller game here. Including that day, he's 3-0 over his last 4 outings, allowing just 4 total runs over 23 innings. I think it'd be easy to get the impression that Miller has turned a corner and is well on his way back from last year's second-half struggles, but as optimistic as I am about the team in general, I am not at all convinced that Shelby is actually pitching that well.

While he managed to keep teams off the scoreboard in his last 2 outings, he was all over the place location-wise. Today his control was better, but his command still was suspect, with a number of pitches right down the heart of the plate. Each of the homers was on a pitch that missed an outside corner and low target and was left in the batter's wheelhouse. A bad offense (with Ramirez, Braun, and Segura out) made a lot of hard contact today.

Furthermore, the improved overall control came at the cost of some velocity. Miller's fastball averaged just 93.7 mph today, down from 94.78, 95.17, and 94.96 his last 3 outings. I see a guy who has middling secondary pitches, can't harness his fastball when its velocity is at its best, and doesn't have the pinpoint location to get outs with it when its not hopping as much.

This doesn't mean he can't improve from where he is, but right now I think he's a mediocre major league starter. I'd love to be wrong. Prove me wrong, Shelby.

A question for discussion: 1 up, 1 down

Who are the 2 players you think most differently about now than a month ago. Has anyone's play over April changed what you thought they'd be able to do in 2014? My 1 up is Jhonny Peralta. I liked him before, but I love how he's swinging the bat. All those hard hit balls are going to start resulting in more hits, and I think he's going to be lot closer to 2013 Jhonny than 2012. My 1 down was discussed in the prior section (prove me wrong, Shelby!).

The Cardinals have an off-day tomorrow before heading to Chicago to start 9 more away games. At the end of that stretch, they will have played 26 away games to just 12 at home.

Minor League Notes, 2014-05-01

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Nashville Sounds (AAA) 14-12
Won Game 1 1-0 (7 inn.) vs New Orleans Zephyrs (MIA) (box / pbp)
Won Game 2 3-2 (7 inn.) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 16-10
Won 8-4 at Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 14-12
Won 7-6 (11 inn.) at Clearwater Threshers (PHI) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 11-13
Won Game 1 7-6 (10 inn.) vs Burlington Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)
Lost Game 2 5-1 (7 inn.) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
Irving FaluNashville3B3020000.268Gm1
Caleb GindlNashvilleCF3020000.276Gm1
Hunter MorrisNashville1B3010011.279Gm1
Hunter MorrisNashville1B3110000.281Gm2
Logan SchaferNashvilleCF3010000.333Gm2
Mitch HanigerHuntsvilleRF5011010.193SB
Nick RamirezHuntsville1B5333000.2452B, HR
D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF5210000.246SB
Jason RogersHuntsville3B4022101.2422B (2)
Nick ShawHuntsvilleSS4130110.1752B
Shawn ZarragaHuntsvilleDH3221100.4892B (2)
Orlando ArciaBrevard CountySS5010121.235
Parker BerberetBrevard CountyC5020000.190
Michael GarzaBrevard County1B5120001.250
Nathan OrfBrevard CountyRF5022110.2792B
Michael ReedBrevard CountyDH524000.282SB, 2B (2)
Yadiel RiveraBrevard County2B6132000.226
Victor RoacheBrevard CountyLF6112010.1753B
Tyrone TaylorBrevard CountyCF5200100.250
Taylor BrennanWisconsin3B5121010.227Gm1: 3B
Taylor BrennanWisconsin3B3121000.246Gm2: 2B, HR
Clint CoulterWisconsinC2100210.324Gm1
Clint CoulterWisconsinDH3010010.324Gm2: 2B
Johnny DavisWisconsinCF5231010.313Gm1
Omar GarciaWisconsinLF3110100.182Gm1: SB (2)
Omar GarciaWisconsinLF2010000.190Gm2: SB
Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF4213110.231Gm1: HR
Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF3000030.218Gm2
PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
Mike FiersNashville7.020001100.80W, 5-0Gm1
Alfredo FigaroNashville4.02001303.21Gm2
Tyler CravyHuntsville5.02222702.59W, 4-1
Kevin ShackelfordHuntsville1.01211012.40
Tyler WagnerBrevard County5.05421411.91
Anthony BandaWisconsin5.06332503.13L, 1-3Gm2
Victor DiazWisconsin4.06441104.76Gm1: WP

What we learned: May 1, 2014

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Today's lessons include Wei-Chung Wang's usage, early wins, and more.

Yesterday's Results

Cardinals 9, Brewers 3

It was the B-lineup out again for the Brewers, but this time the results were not as favorable.  Matt Garza was knocked out of the game after 3+ innings with a thumb injury, and Wei-Chung Wang got hit hard eating three innings for the bullpen.  Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds provided the offense with a home run each, and Martin Maldonado made his debut as a pitcher in the game.

Wei-Chung Wang needs to see more action in games.

Yesterday, Wang got into a game for the fourth time this season.  He has seen the least action of any of the Brewers relievers, and it means other relievers have to pitch more often.  Fred Hofstetter looks at the reasons why the Brewers need to use Wei-Chung Wang more often.  It may be tough, but it's the best for maintaining bullpen usage.  Hopefully the Brewers can find a way to get some balance here.

The early wins the Brewers have accumulated will be helpful.

The Brewers had 20 wins in April, giving them a faster start than any of us expected.  It has given us a lot of optimism for the rest of the system.  How helpful is having the hot start? Jordan argues that the hot start will help the Brewers make some decisions to compete down the stretch.  With early success, it's easier to argue that the Brewers can compete later in the season and make moves to help the team now.  It's early to think about potential roster changes or trades, but it will help somewhere down the stretch.

Cram Session

The Brewers Hot Start

The Bullpen

Other Notes

Minor League Update

TeamLevelRecordYesterdayToday
Nashville SoundsAAA14-12Nashville 1, New Orleans 0
Nashville 3, New Orleans 2
New Orleans @ Nashville
Huntsville StarsAA16-10Huntsville 8, Montgomery 4Hunstville @ Montgomery
(Doubleheader)
Brevard County ManateesA+14-12Brevard County 7, Clearwater 6Tampa @ Brevard County
Wisconsin Timber RattlersA11-13Wisconsin 7, Burlington 6
Burlington 5, Wisconsin 1
Burlington @ Wisconsin
(Doubleheader)

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

TeamWLGB
Brewers208-
Cardinals15145.5
Reds12157.5
Pirates10169
Cubs91710
  • Cubs 9, Reds 4: Anthony Rizzo made it on base four times with two RBI and two runs scored to help the Cubs salvage a game in the series.
  • Pirates @ Orioles was postponed due to inclement weather.

Today's Games

  • Pirates (Charlie Morton) @ Orioles (Bud Norris) - 3:05 pm
    Pirates (Brandon Cumpton) @ Orioles (Chris Tillman) - Game 2
  • Cardinals and Cubs have the day off.

Today's Action

The Brewers now travel to Cincinnati for their first series against the Reds, a four-game series at Great American Ball Park.  The game will feature Marco Estrada facing off against Homer Bailey.  First pitch is at 6:10 pm, and MLB.com has the preview.

Brewers @ Reds series preview

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The Brewers home run power and bullpen excellence face off against the Reds mighty rotation, stellar defense, and garbage bullpen. What will win out?

The Brewers travel to Cincinnati to face the division rival Reds for the first time this year. If you go by Fangraphs' WAR, then you should be happy to know the Reds' pitching ranks 28th overall. However, I'm not sure that tells an accurate story here. The Reds team ERA is 3.29 and it's FIP is 4.22. It might be that they've been getting lucky or it might have more to do with the Reds' excellent defense which ranks 3rd overall. The real culprit might simply be their bullpen which has been atrocious. As a whole their pen has a 4.61 ERA and an even worse 4.94 FIP. The good new for the Reds is that Aroldis Chapman begins his minor league rehab stint Thursday. The good news for the Brewers is that means he'll still miss this series. The Reds offense has been about as good as the Brewers in the first month. They rank two spots lower with a 96 wRC+.

Thursday May 1, 6:10 pm CT: Marco Estrada vs Homer Bailey

There are so many "Homer" based puns I can think of, but I'll stow them for now as I actually think Bailey is a great pitcher. So far this year he's striking out 23.8% of batters faced and walking a modest 6.6%. However despite those numbers he has an opponent batting average of .345 and a 1.78 WHIP! He's also getting killed by home runs which is something the Brewers happen to be pretty good at hitting. They're currently (or were when I wrote this) 10th in the majors. Sooner or later Homer Bailey is going to figure things out. I'm hoping it won't be Thursday.

Friday May 2, 6:10 pm CT: Wily Peralta vs Mike Leake

Leake doesn't strike guys out and home runs have typically been an issue with him. His HR/9 is pretty high right now at 1.53. He just seems like a guy that the Brewers are going to have trouble with. His fastball is only around 90 mph but he complements it with a slider, cutter, curveball, and change-up. I expect to see a lot of ground balls hit Friday night. The Reds defense might very well be the difference here.

Saturday May 3, 6:10 pm CT: Yovani Gallardo vs Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto. Wow. He is killing it this year. He's striking out 28.3% of batters faced. His opponent batting average is .135 (best in MLB) and he has a 0.77 WHIP (2nd best after Jason Hammel...)!!! He's crazy good. Brewers are really going to need their mojo if they want to win this game.

Sunday May 4, 3:10 pm CT: Kyle Lohse vs Alfredo Simon

Simon seems like another guy that's really being helped out by his defense. He isn't striking guys out but he has a 48.4% ground ball rate and he's stingy with home runs. His .182 BAA and 0.98 seem due for some negative regression, but otherwise he's looking like a pretty solid starter.

Prediction

The Reds have a solid rotation and runs are going to be hard to come by. The key is probably going to be getting to the bullpen, but that's easier said than done. The Reds pen has pitched the fewest innings in all of baseball. I think this series is going to be all about the Brewers pitching which has been pretty damn good itself. Billy Hamilton has started to heat up the last week and the Reds are accidentally doing the right thing by batting Joey Votto second. If the Brewers can find a way to keep those two bats quiet it'll go a long way to suppressing runs, as the Reds seem to think Brandon Phillips and his 63 wRC+ batting third isn't incredibly stupid. If the Brewers starters can keep it close and make it a bullpen game, the advantage is theirs. I think 3 out of 4 is a real possibility.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

April Showers Bring May Bruce

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One month of the MLB season is in the books. The Reds probably won't want to re-read that book.

The calendar officially flips to May today, and an April that both began and ended on disappointing notes can now be stowed away to the annals of history.  That is, until September, when the inevitable "September games are no more important than games in April" arguments arise, at which point we'll return to dust off the Recaps of one-run losses, split series with the Chicago Cubs, all those times 'tHom told us about a lack of RBIs, and lament the fact that the Cincinnati Reds emerged three games under .500 despite scoring 9 more runs than they've allowed.

So what were the April Reds?

About 4/5ths of the April Reds were, more or less, exactly what we thought they'd be.  Billy Hamilton struggled out of the gate, but showed flashes of the voltage held in his spindly legs.  Johnny Cueto blew away hitters like he was facing nothing but the 2010 Pirates every game.  Joey Votto walked - a lot - and had a few dingerrific performances sandwiched between an April that won't be as good as his May.  The pitching, on the whole, was good, the hitting was spotty, and the injuries that plagued the team in Spring Training carried over to have a rather serious effect on the way the team played.

About 1/5th of the April Reds were rather complete surprises.  Devin Mesoraco came back from an injured oblique to go full bowling ball through MLB pitching for the first time in his career.  Bryan Price moved Votto to the 2nd spot in the order, effectively ending the "will he or won't he" argument before it ever began.  Alfredo Simon pitched like a starting pitcher worthy of being a starting pitcher in the best rotation in the National League.  Brayan Pena showed that his offense can be as sharp as a NERT on a cool February morning.

The bullpen - or, what's left of it, at least - was terrible.  Horrible.  They had a no good, very bad month, but an optimist will tell you that the "they" in the bullpen won't be the same "they" that pitches most of the rest of the year.  I'm that optimist, and that's what I'm telling you.  The bench was competent in the context of the history of Reds' benches, and is set to get grittier in the near future, and the schedule seemed pretty damn tough.

That was the gist.  Let's look at some stats.

OVERALL

  • Record:  12-15, 3rd in the National League Central (7.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers)
  • Home:  5-6  Road:  7-9
  • Runs Scored:  102  Runs Allowed:  93  Difference:  +9
  • Day Games: 7-8  Night Games:  5-7
  • 1-Run Games:  4-9
  • Vs. RHP:  9-12   Vs. LHP:  3-3
  • Vs. NL Central Opponents:  10-8
  • Pythagorean Win/Loss:  15-12

TEAM BATTING

  • Runs scored:  102 (24/30 MLB, 11/15 NL)
  • Batting average:  .249 (17/30, 6/15)
  • On-base percentage:  .318 (15/30, 4/15)
  • Slugging percentage:  .380 (17/30, 8/15)
  • OPS:  .698 (18/30, 7/15)
  • HR:  22 (19/30, 11/15)
  • National League averages:  .246/.309/.385 (.694), 25 HR
  • Major League averages:  .249/.317/.388 (.705), 24 HR

TEAM PITCHING

  • ERA:  3.43 (11/30 MLB, 9/15 NL)
  • Quality Starts:  17 (t-5/30, t-4/15)
  • OPS against:  .680 (11/30, 8/15)
  • WHIP:  1.25 (11/30, 8/15)
  • K/9:  7.81 (18/30, 9/15)
  • K/BB:  2.28 (22/30, 15/15)
  • National League averages:  3.50 ERA, 15 QS, .689 OPS, 1.25 WHIP, 8.07 K/9, 2.76 K/BB
  • Major League averages:  3.82 ERA, 14 QS, .706 OPS, 1.30 WHIP, 7.95 K/9, 2.56 K/BB
  • ERA as SP:  2.94 (5/30, 4/15)
  • ERA as RP:  4.82 (26/30, 14/15)

TEAM LEADERS - BATTING

  • Runs scored:  Jay Bruce (17), Joey Votto (15), Todd Frazier (14)
  • Batting average:  Devin Mesoraco (.468), Brayan Pena (.304), Joey Votto (.280)
  • On-base percentage:  Devin Mesoraco (.509), Joey Votto (.438), Brayan Pena (.360)
  • Slugging percentage:  Devin Mesoraco (.787), Joey Votto (.462), Brayan Pena (.457)
  • OPS:  Devin Mesoraco (1.297), Joey Votto (.900), Brayan Pena (.817)
  • HR:  Joey Votto (4), Todd Frazier (4), Devin Mesoraco (3), Jay Bruce (3)
  • RBI:  Jay Bruce (14), Devin Mesoraco (13), Todd Frazier (12)
  • BB:  Joey Votto (24), Jay Bruce (19), Todd Frazier (10)
  • K:  Jay Bruce (27), Brandon Phillips (25), Joey Votto (22)
  • SB:  Billy Hamilton (11), Jay Bruce (5), Chris Heisey (3)
  • fWAR:  Devin Mesoraco (1.3), Todd Frazier (1.0), Joey Votto (0.7)
  • bWAR:  Devin Mesoraco (1.2), Todd Frazier (1.0), Joey Votto (0.9)

TEAM LEADERS - PITCHING

  • ERA (SP):  Johnny Cueto (1.15), Alfredo Simon (1.60), Tony Cingrani (3.34)
  • ERA (RP):  Jonathan Broxton (0.00), Sam LeCure (0.77), Manny Parra (4.35)
  • Quality Starts:  Johnny Cueto (6), Alfredo Simon (5), Tony Cingrani (3)
  • ERA+:  Sam LeCure (481), Johnny Cueto (315), Alfredo Simon (226)
  • WHIP:  Johnny Cueto (0.77), Alfredo Simon (0.98), Mike Leake (1.02)
  • K/9:  JJ Hoover (11.9), Homer Bailey (9.9), Johnny Cueto (9.6)
  • K/BB:  Johnny Cueto (3.33), Mike Leake (3.33), Homer Bailey (3.22)
  • IP:  Johnny Cueto (47.0), Mike Leake (35.0), Alfredo Simon (34.0)
  • fWAR:  Johnny Cueto (0.9), Tony Cingrani (0.4), Alfredo Simon (0.3)
  • bWAR:  Johnny Cueto (2.5), Alfredo Simon (1.2), Sam LeCure (0.6), Tony Cingrani (0.6)

Staying focused: The Timber Rattlers Notebook

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How do minor leaguers stay ready for four games in two days? We ask that question and more in our Wisconsin update.

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are hosting a doubleheader with the Burlington Bees at Neuroscience Group Field at Fox Cities Stadium, but many of the players likely feel like they just went to bed: The two teams also had an extra-long doubleheader last night, as extra innings extended last night's 14 scheduled frames to 17.

All told, the Timber Rattlers were on the field for about six hours last night. For at least one player, though, it didn't feel that long: Third baseman Taylor Brennan had four hits in the doubleheader, including a double, triple and home run.

"You just kind of go pitch-to-pitch. It doesn't seem like six hours, but when the day gets done it's pretty long," Brennan said.

Brennan doesn't have the prospect fanfare of some of his Timber Rattlers teammates, but has been one of the team's most productive hitters. He's only batting .246, but has drawn 12 walks en route to a .361 on-base percentage and ranks third on the team with a .478 slugging percentage. He was drafted in the 37th round of the 2012 draft, but is still only 22 years old.

"I'm just out there trying to do my best and get everything I can out of it," Brennan said.

He's also making the most out of his improved vision. Late last year he got contact lenses for the first time.

"I didn't realize I needed contacts until the end of last year, so that's made a big difference. Ever since then, I'm just improving myself and playing a lot," Brennan said.

Brennan is back in the lineup for the first game of the doubleheader today, batting fifth.

"I wake up ready to go wherever I am."

Outfielder Michael Ratterree has already had an extensive travel schedule in 2014. He wrapped up spring training with the Brewers during their exhibitions at Miller Park, opened the regular season with Wisconsin, spent a week with AA Huntsville and now is back with the Timber Rattlers, playing right field and batting second. He said moving around between teams hasn't impacted his focus.

"I've still got my goals and what I'm trying to accomplish, so I wake up ready to go wherever I am," Ratterree said.

Ratterree hit his fourth home run for Wisconsin last night, and also had one during his brief stint in AA. He said the biggest difference between two levels was the pitchers' arsenals.

"They all have control of just about three pitches, they're very developed pitchers," Ratterree said.

Now that he's back with the Timber Rattlers, Ratterree is using his brief AA experience as motivation to get back to that level.

"They treat you differently up there. It's a different kind of sport, a lot more fans and stuff like that. It was an overall cool experience for me and it definitely motivated me," Ratterree said.

Staying loose, staying ready

The handful of Timber Rattlers that played all 17 innings yesterday had a long day, but the doubleheader probably felt even longer for the players who didn't get into a game. One of those players was reliever Harvey Martin, who spent a long day out in the bullpen with his teammates on a cold night.

"We've got a couple of little antics out there that we do," Martin said. "It's hard to stay focused, we're out there for 17 innings, you're out there for six hours. You kind of bide your time, a lot of guys have their different routines or rituals that they'll do. We get up every two or three innings and move around to stay loose. We kind of keep each other accountable for that, so it's fortunate that we've got a bunch of good dudes in the pen this year that keep people into the game."

With this week's pair of rainouts, Martin hasn't gotten to pitch in a game since April 26. I asked him about the challenge of keeping ready during a long break between appearances.

"In the bullpen we don't have the luxury of knowing when you're going to throw," Martin said. "It's not a routine like a starter. So for us it's just every day, when you come to the park and you throw, you're working on continuing your mechanics and being consistent. And we'll jump on the mound before the game and just throw a couple to make sure you're at where you want to see the ball, locating, and you kind of come into a rhythm that way and gain consistency."

Martin has a 3.52 ERA over five appearances for Wisconsin this season, and has struck out 13 opposing batters in 7.2 innings.

For more from Kyle, check out the new Frosty Mug at Milwaukee Magazine, follow him on Twitter @BrewFrostyMugand like his new Facebook page.


Midwest League results: Wisconsin splits doubleheader, Matt Erickson walks off with a record

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The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have played 31 innings of baseball in about 24 hours over the last two days, but were rewarded with a pair of walkoff wins.

If you ask a member of the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers how they're feeling tonight, they might admit they're tired. But they'd probably also tell you that walking off with a 3-2 win to salvage a doubleheader split against the Burlington Bees made them feel a little better.

Between 5:05 pm on Wednesday and 5:37 pm today the Timber Rattlers and Bees played four games: An evening doubleheader Wednesday night and a pair of day games this afternoon. The two teams split the four games, with Burlington picking up a 6-4 win in the first game today and Wisconsin avenging the loss with a 3-2 walkoff win in the second contest.

One of the Timber Rattlers who played all 31 innings over two days (including extra innings in the first game on Wednesday) was third baseman Taylor Brennan, and he was a big part of the reason Wisconsin picked up their two wins. He went 4-for-8 with three extra base hits on Wednesday, including a walkoff single in the Timber Rattlers victory. He had two more hits today, including a triple, and the second hit was also a walkoff single.

After the game Brennan noted that back-to-back doubleheaders were something he got used to during his junior college days, so playing this often wasn't unusual for him.

"I'm feeling good right now, I'll probably be tired tonight after I shower and stuff. I'll be ready to go to sleep, get some rest and be ready tomorrow to go again," Brennan said.

"He's a guy that we need to play like he's playing the next couple of days if we're going to be successful," Wisconsin manager Matt Erickson said. "He's playing with some confidence, not only with his bat, but it seemed to carry over to his defense as well. He made some great plays yesterday in the doubleheader, swung the bat and today he also helped us in the middle of the lineup. But we need his bat if we're going to be a contending club."

Today was also a big day for Erickson: The win was his 216th as manager of the Timber Rattlers, setting a new Wisconsin franchise record. He passed former MLB outfielder Gary Thurman, who managed Wisconsin from 2000-02 during their time as a Mariners affiliate.

"I feel fortunate to be in the situation that I'm in to get to do this in my hometown and for the Brewers, a team I grew up watching and got to play for. It's a neat experience. Humbling," Erickson said.

Erickson was in a position to collect that record-breaking win due to a solid performance from pitchers Preston Gainey and Harvey Martin in the second game. Gainey allowed a two-run home run in the third inning of the second game, but otherwise the two pitchers kept the Bees off the board for seven innings and gave Wisconsin a chance to come back.

"Gainey, coming off the DL, hadn't pitched in a while and maybe was a little bit too strong," Erickson said. "He really struggled winning strike one and was falling behind, but getting out of it. He had the two-run home run but kept us close enough."

The Timber Rattlers needed a great pitching performance to stay in the game after Burlington starter Alfonso Alcantara held them scoreless for five innings. Alcantara also pitched against Wisconsin in his last outing, and has thrown nine consecutive scoreless innings when facing them. Erickson said it's fair to say he's had the Timber Rattlers' number.

"He's got a nice arm, a live arm, but we didn't have a lot of good swings off him today. Fortunately for us he hit a pitch count or whatever it was and we were able to get to the pen," Erickson said.

Wisconsin got three runs in the final two innings of the second game against the Bees bullpen. Catcher Clint Coulter hit a solo home run to lead off the sixth, and second baseman Chris McFarland drove in the tying run with a sac fly later in the inning.

"That's one thing we've been working on with a team: Runner on third, less than two outs, making sure we get that run in," McFarland said. "So I was just trying to put a good swing on it, to make sure I got the run in."

McFarland broke out of an 0-for-19 slump with a nice day today, collecting three hits in the first game and driving in the tying run in the second. He said he didn't change his routine in an effort to overcome his struggles, and it felt good to finally break through.

"It's something me and (hitting coach) Chuck (Caufield) talked about, you've just gotta stay positive even though you're doing bad, keep your head up and keep swinging," McFarland said.

With the split today Wisconsin moves to 12-14 on the season. They've fallen six games back of Kane County in the Midwest League's West Division, and Erickson said the way they prepare for games will be key if they're going to get back in the race.

"I like the way our preparation is. If we continue our preparation the way we have been and get some weather where we can get on the field day in, day out, I think that will make us a little more consistent on the field in competition," Erickson said. "If we keep getting wins like this, we'll hopefully get a little confidence with our young players and maybe we can get on a run."

For now, however, his team needs some rest before their night game with Clinton tomorrow.

"I'm kind of tired. I'm trying to see if I can make up this (scheduled weight) lift tomorrow," McFarland said. "It's a grind, but I'm used it to because I was here last year preparing every day. It's just a part of getting your sleep and eating right to be able to compete. The other team, they're doing it too. So it's mental as well, just staying focused."

Erickson could be forgiven if he was sick of baseball after managing 31 innings in two days, but he said that's not the case.

"Absolutely not. I'm ready for tomorrow right now," Erickson said.

For more from Kyle, check out the new Frosty Mug at Milwaukee Magazine, follow him on Twitter @BrewFrostyMugand like his new Facebook page.

Reds show up late to season, chug 1st of 7 beers needed to catch up to Milwaukee. CIN 8, MIL 3.

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Just a sixer and a floater and the Reds will overtake those dastardly Brewers!

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

NERTS is getting tonight's JNMHSotG based partly on his pinch-hit, lead-taking 2-run dinger, partly due to his double earflap helmet, partly due to his smile, and partly due to being the coolest thing to hit the Cincinnati Reds dugout since someone turned off Bronson Arroyo's demo tape and put on talk radio.  Brayan Pena's 2-run honker put the Reds in front for good in the 8th, and it proved to be the hit that opened the floodgates for the offense against the pitching of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Good on ya, NERTS.  Walt should sign you to another 2-year deal right this minute.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Todd Frazier, who went 2 for 4 with a walk, 2-run dinger of his own, 3 RBIs, and a run scored; Chris Heisey, who came off the bench in place of Billy Hamilton to go 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored; Mother Tucker Barnhart, who went 1 for 4 with a sacrifice AND THE FIRST DINGER OF HIS YOUNG CAREER; Zack Cozart, who had a pair of hits; Homer Bailey, who made it through 8 innings while allowing just 3 ER (and keeping the ball in the ballpark); and Ryan Ludwick, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips, just because.

Key Plays

  • Outfield defense took center-stage early in this one, beginning with Billy Hamilton's full layout snag of what would've been at least a double for Carlos Gomez to lead off the Top of the 1st.  Hamilton stayed in the game to finish the half-inning despite being rather visibly in pain, but he was replaced by Chris Heisey before he could leadoff the Bottom of the 1st.  Then, Gomez promptly returned the favor in that half inning by robbing yet another would-be dinger from Votto.
  • The Brewers got on the board first in the Top of the 2nd, however, courtesy of consecutive singles from Khris Davis, Lyle Overbey, and Jean Segura, the last of which scored Davis.  Reds trailed, 1-0.
  • Mother Tucker tied things up in the Bottom of the 5th with his solo blast of Marco Estrada, and the Reds put another pair of runs up in the Bottom of the 6th when Frazier one-hand dingered following a leadoff walk from Jay Bruce.  Reds led, 3-1.
  • Gomez again hurt the Reds with a 2-run double in the Top of the 7th off Bailey.  Both Segura and Rickie Weeks had singled in front of him, and he roped an inside fastball to the wall in left-center to drive them both in.  Game tied, 3-3.
  • The team initiative to collectively whip-ass finally was heeded at a company level in the Bottom of the 8th.  Cozart led off with a single, he moved to second on a sacrifice from Tucker Barnhart, and PH NERTS stepped in and THO'd a 2-run dinger.  Heisey followed with a single, Votto doubled off the wall in left, Bruce walked, Frazier walked with the bases loaded to allow Heisey to trot home, and Ludwick singled off a Brewere glove at third that allowed both Votto and Bruce to score when it trickled into shallow left.  Reds led, 8-3.
  • Johnathan Broxton had been throwing in the 'pen in anticipation of a save opportunity, but Bryan Price went ahead and sent him in to pitch the Top of the 9th because he was ready, which was damn refreshing to see.  Broxy promptly put down the Brewers in order, and that was that.  Reds win, 8-3!
FanGraph Detailing a Team with a +14 Run Differential 6.5 Games out of 1st Place Defeating a Team with a +14 Run Differential Currently in 1st Place


Source: FanGraphs

Other Notes

  • The early prognosis on the injury that forced Hamilton out of the game is that he sprained the 3rd and 4th knuckles on his left hand.  If you watch the replay of how he catches the ball, it makes you wonder if he didn't just bruise the hell out of them by catching the ball in the palm of his glove.
  • Every starter but Hamilton had a hit tonight, but Hamilton didn't even get a PA.  Chris Heisey had two in his place, however.
  • Homer Bailey's season got off to a godawful start, but after tonight, his ERA is down to 5.50.  No, that's still not good, but it means he's a pair of decent starts from it being within shouting distance of his career average.  That'll happen, and soon.
  • Tony Cingrani was placed on the DL before the game tonight, and Curtis Partch was recalled.  I don't even have a shitty golf metaphor for how miserable the injuries have been so far this year.
  • Tunes that remind me of my high school art teacher.


Carlos Gomez robs Joey Votto of a homer. Again.

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Someday you'll hit a ball over his head Joey. Someday.

One of 2013's great moments came when Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez robbed the Reds' Joey Votto of a go-ahead homer in the bottom of the ninth, giving Milwaukee the win. Gomez sized it up perfectly, leading to the most incredulous reaction Votto was capable of pouring out of him.

On Thursday night, Gomez robbed Votto of another homer.

Gomez-robs-votto

He got back there just in time, unlike last year when he was coiled and waiting to pounce for quite some time, but the result was the same. It was in the bottom of the first, so tensions were not quite so high, giving Gomez and Votto room to have fun with the sequel.

Bemused-votto

Votto has partaken in the occasional bat flip or pimped homer (in fact, he was admiring the shot Gomez caught last year), so he knows quality showmanship when he sees it, and is more amused than anything by Gomez's catch and post-catch antics.

Gomez-celebrates

Votto-twice

The "Twice?! Bah" reaction makes this whole thing, especially since they're playing off of each other. It's a lot less sad than last year's reaction, too:

Incredulous-votto

If Gomez does this again, I hope Votto just runs out to center to shake his hand.

Minor League Notes, 2014-05-02

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All of the doubleheaders. Or a lot of them.

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 15-12
Won 6-5 (11 inn.) vs New Orleans Zephyrs (MIA) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 17-11
Won Game 1 5-2 (7 inn.) at Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) (box / pbp)
Lost Game 2 7-3 (7 inn.) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 14-12
Suspended vs Tampa Yankees (NYY)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 12-14
Lost Game 1 6-4 (7 inn.) vs Burlington Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)
Won Game 2 3-2 (7 inn.) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
Robinzon DiazNashvilleC4121110.234
Caleb GindlNashvilleLF-CF5120010.284
Hunter MorrisNashville1B5111010.2772B
Logan SchaferNashvilleCF3001110.167
Mitch HanigerHuntsvilleRF3110000.198Gm1
Nick RamirezHuntsville1B4221010.248Gm2: 2B(2)
D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF3000100.236Gm1
D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF4000020.224Gm2
Jason RogersHuntsville3B3110000.245Gm1
Jason RogersHuntsville3B3000000.238Gm2
Nick ShawHuntsvilleSS4020000.197Gm1
Taylor BrennanWisconsin3B3121100.250Gm2: 3B
Clint CoulterWisconsinDH3001000.312Gm1
Clint CoulterWisconsinC3111100.313Gm2: HR
Johnny DavisWisconsinCF4022000.311Gm1
Omar GarciaWisconsinLF2000100.185Gm2
Chris McFarlandWisconsin2B3220100.241Gm1: 2B
Rafael NedaWisconsinC3021010.297Gm1: 2B
Jose PenaWisconsinRF3020000.259Gm2
Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF3110110.224Gm1: 2B
Michael RatterreeWisconsinDH4110020.226Gm2
PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
Michael BlazekNashville2.05442419.24
Brad MillsNashville6.00103602.22WP
Jacob BarnesHuntsville4.01222405.00Gm2: WP, HBP
Drew GagnonHuntsville4.02224123.21Gm1: HBP
David GoforthHuntsville2.02001002.51W, 1-1Gm1
Preston GaineyWisconsin5.05221511.86Gm2: HBP(2)
Harvey MartinWisconsin2.01000302.79W, 2-1Gm2
Zach QuintanaWisconsin4.05432206.14L, 0-2Gm1: HBP

What we learned: May 2, 2014

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Today's lessons include a roster move, minor league updates after the first month of the season, and more.

Yesterday's Results

Reds 8, Brewers 3

Home runs doomed the Brewers as the Reds scored five runs off of three home runs.  The bullpen fell apart in the eighth inning as well, with Jim Henderson and Rob Wooten combining to allow five runs.  Marco Estrada put together another quality start with six innings of three-run baseball.  However, it was a rough start beyond that with six hits, four walks, and two home runs allowed.  Carlos Gomez collected two RBI in the loss, and also robbed a home run from Joey Votto in the first inning.

The Brewers made a roster move, recalling Rob Wooten and optioning Elian Herrera.

Following the Cardinals series, the Brewers made a roster move to fortify their bullpen.  They recalled Rob Wooten from Triple-A Nashville and optioned Elian Herrera there.  With several extra-inning games coming up recently, the Brewers needed to make a move to prevent the bullpen from getting overworked.  This is Wooten's second stint on the roster, and he is just here to provide another option for the team.  It could be a quick trip if the Brewers need the roster spot on Saturday when Logan Schafer returns.  We will see what happens on Saturday.

There are several updates from the end of the first month of the minor league system.

As the month of May begins, we are also through the first month of the minor league season.  There were plenty of updates from both BCB and other sites, so let's take a minute and go through some of those:

Cram Session

Minor League Standings

TeamLevelRecordYesterdayThis Weekend
Nashville SoundsAAA15-12Nashville 6, New Orleans 5Friday: Iowa @ Nashville
Saturday:Iowa @ Nashville
Sunday: Iowa @ Nashville
Huntsville StarsAA17-11Huntsville 5, Montgomery 2
Montgomery 7, Huntsville 3
Friday: Huntsville @ Montgomery
Saturday: Huntsville @ Montgomery
Sunday: OFF
Brevard County ManateesA+14-12Brevard County 4, Tampa 0
(Suspended in 4th Inning,
Resumes on Friday)
Friday: Tampa @ Brevard County
Saturday: Tampa @ Brevard County
Sunday: Clearwater @ Brevard County
Wisconsin Timber RattlersA12-14Burlington 6, Wisconsin 4
Wisconsin 3, Burlington 2
Friday: Clinton @ Wisconsin
Saturday: Clinton @ Wisconsin
Sunday: Clinton @ Wisconsin

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

TeamWLGB
Brewers209-
Cardinals15145
Reds13156.5
Pirates10189.5
Cubs9179.5
  • Baltimore 5, Pittsburgh 1: Steve Pearce went 3-for-4 with two RBI to lead the Orioles in the first game of their doubleheader. Pedro Alvarez went 3-for-5 for the Pirates and drove in their only run.
  • Baltimore 6, Pittsburgh 5: Baltimore rallied from a 4-0 deficit with four runs in the sixth inning, rallied again with another run in the seventh inning, and then walked off on Matt Wieters' tenth inning leadoff home run.
  • Cardinals and Cubs had the day off.

This Weekend's Games

  • Cardinals @ Cubs
    Friday: Adam Waingwright vs. Travis Wood - 1:20 pm
    Saturday: Michael Wacha vs. Jake Arrieta - 12:05 pm
    Sunday: Lance Lynn vs. Jason Hammel - 7:05 pm
  • Blue Jays @ Pirates
    Friday: Brandon Morrow vs. Gerrit Cole - 6:05 pm
    Saturday: R.A. Dickey vs. Francisco Liriano - 6:05 pm
    Sunday: Dustin McGowan vs. Edinson Volquez - 12:35 pm

This Weekend's Action

The Brewers continue their four-game series in Cincinnati over the weekend.  Yesterday, Derek posted a preview of the current series.  Here are the weekend's matchups:

Friday: Wily Peralta vs. Mike Leake
Saturday: Yovani Gallardo vs. Johnny Cueto
Sunday: Kyle Lohse vs. Alfredo Simon

Aroldis Chapman Nears Reds Return

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The Cincinnati Reds closer took the first big step towards returning to the majors with a rehab start in Dayton.

Six weeks and one day removed from being hit in the face by a line drive in a Cactus League game against the Kansas City Royals, Aroldis Chapman took the mound for the Class A Dayton Dragons for the first rehab appearance on his road back to rejoining the Cincinnati Reds.  The two-time All Star closer - who had a titanium plate inserted above his left eye to help stabilize the facial fractures caused by the impact - had thrown live batting practice to several of his Reds teammates, but his outing against the Lansing Lugnuts on Thursday night was the first time he's hummed an in-game fastball since throwing the pitch that - when turned around by Salvador Perez -landed him in the Banner Del E. Webb Medical Center on the night of March 19.

The 99 mph registered by Chapman's very first pitch indicated that his arm is ready to return, and if the comments he made following his one inning performance are any indication, he's carrying no residual fear of a similar incident occurring again, either.  As C. Trent Rosecrans noted in a post-game article for USA Today Sports, Chapman said (through interpreter Tomas Vera), "I'm really positive about this.  I feel really normal, I have confidence in myself, I don't have any fear or anything."  Given the dire scene at Surprise Stadium immediately after he was hit and the gruesome post-surgery photos leaked by Chapman himself, the turnaround the 26 year old has made in such a quick fashion, both physically and mentally, has been remarkable.

1398996240000-5-1-chapman_medium

Photo Credit:  David Kohl, USA Today Sports

Chapman, of course, was extremely fortunate that the injuries sustained were no worse, and Cincinnati's initial decision to place him on the 15-day DL rather than the 60-day DL now seems prescient.  Both the Reds and Chapman seem to think he'll be ready to be recalled after another 3 or 4 rehab outings, which means he could be back in the big leagues in as little as 10-12 days.

That should come as welcome news to Reds fans, as it's no secret that their bullpen has suffered mightily without him.

Not only has Chapman been sidelined through the first month of the season, but the bullpen that had the best ERA in the majors as recently as 2012 has also been without Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, and Alfredo Simon for various stints and reasons, and the arms tasked with pitching in their stead simply haven't been able to have any similar results.  The 4.74 ERA currently sported by the collective Reds bullpen ranks as the second worst in the NL (ahead of only the Philadelphia Phillies), and while the spotty showing from the team's offense has undoubtedly also been a factor, the lack of success by the relievers is a huge reason why the Reds, at 4-9, have the worst record in 1-run games among all 15 teams in the National League.

Broxton's return some 10 days into the season gave the Reds' bullpen some much needed stability, and manager Bryan Price has since used him primarily in Chapman's vacated closer role to great success.  Broxton is a perfect 5 for 5 in save opportunities, he's striking out a batter an inning, and he's yet to allow a run in 2014, and the return of fellow veteran Marshall has also helped push less experienced (and less productive) guys like Nick Christiani and Logan Ondrusek further down the pecking order.  Their returns have given a glimmer of predictability and expectation to a bullpen that was in complete flux to begin the season, and J.J. Hoover - who had a 26.1 scoreless inning streak as part of a breakout 2013 campaign - has also begun to shave runs off a bloated early season ERA.

The Reds will need more than Chapman to make up the 6.5 games currently between them and the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, but adding the man whose 15.56 K/9 across the 2012-2013 seasons led all relievers in baseball would certainly be a good start.  The perfect, 2 strikeout inning he threw in Dayton last night suggests that may be right around the corner.

The Pirates and Indians are dead, dead, dead

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"The dream is over. What can I say?" -- John Lennon

There was a catchphrase during the Vietnam War, a cousin to John Lennon's "War is over if you want it." It went: "What if they gave a war and nobody came?" The idea in both cases was that, as Thomas Jefferson wrote, governments derive their powers from the consent of the governed, so if enough of the people withdraw their support, no policy can survive their absence.

It turned out to be true, or maybe it didn't, and it's not even clear that if it was true then that it's still true now -- those are topics for another column on another site. In terms of baseball, though, it applies to this year's versions of the Central Divisions in both leagues. In the American League, the Tigers are off to a good start at 14-9. Everyone else has problems. The Indians, last year's Cinderella team, are playing at a 64-98 pace. The Pirates, the NL version of the same, are on a pace to go 58-104 after being swept out of Thursday's doubleheader with the Orioles. Aside from the shocking Brewers, the rest of the team's in the division have yet to find consistency. For Detroit and Milwaukee, they gave a war but nobody came -- at least, not so far.

That either the Indians or Pirates  might lose 100 games, baseball's traditional mark of abject failure, is beside the point. What is salient here is that sometimes everything you know is right. The story of the offseason for both of those teams was how quiet they were, their lack of urgency, their unwillingness add more weapons to winning teams. It was almost as if they worried that the seasons they had had were flukes and then set about to create the conditions that would fulfill that evaluation.

The Indians had the winter with the far higher degree of difficulty because the two pitchers they had to choose to re-sign or walk away from, Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, had given ample reasons to distrust their future performances, even within their successful 2013 campaigns. Walking away from both was not unreasonable. Failing to acquire anything like reliable replacements, even with prospects Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer on hand, was less reasonable and has led directly to the Indians' current predicament, which is partially attributable to the club's 13th-place standing in starter's ERA. (So far the score on that decision is good call on Jimenez, bad call on Kazmir.)

Note that this is not as intractable a problem as it might appear at first due to the Indians' problematic defense. They're currently dead last in the AL in defensive efficiency, the percentage of balls in play a team turns into outs, and are also tied for first in the  league in strikeout rate. Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) credits them with having the third best staff in the league. Yan Gomes, who was a boon to the pitching staff down the stretch last year, has already made seven errors (all but one of them on throws), Michael Bourn not being what he used to be, and whatever gains were supposed to be realized from moving Carlos Santana to third base remain elusive given that his bat vanished along the way.

The way the team is structured it's going to be difficult to remedy the defense. Shortstop Francisco Lindor's time has not yet arrived (.281/.354/.416 as a 20-year-old at Double-A). The 21-year-old shortstop/second baseman Jose Ramirez, who had a cup of coffee last September, was just called up to take the abdominally-disabled Jason Kipnis's place on the roster. Kipnis has never been the kind of defensive second baseman who is a threat to Roberto Alomar's Gold Glove total, but he's been reasonably solid, three errors this season notwithstanding, and Ramirez does nothing to replace his bat. He also can't cover for both Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera, who seems to have hung out a "gone fishing" sign and gone to join Judge Crater (Joseph Force Crater: human example of Schrödinger's cat).

So far, the team's main action on the pitching front has been to punt Carlos Carrasco (6.46 ERA in five games, but a 3.58 FIP) from the rotation. His replacement has yet to be confirmed, but the options seem to be Bauer, who has pitched very well at Triple-A Columbus, or Josh Tomlin. Tomlin has been good in the minors this season as well and has an amazing ability not to issue walks, but is also like the price the Indians paid to the universe to have Bob Feller or Sam McDowell -- he's severely below average in the strikeout department, and on a team that can't pick up the ball, he seems like a really bad idea.

You never look as bad as you do when on a six-game losing streak, and no doubt the Indians will rebound to some degree in the near future just by virtue of the law of averages taking pity on them. However, given the lax winter, the lack of frontline starting pitching, the sketchy defense, and one other item we've only touched upon in passing, a soft offense that is likely to get only so much better, manager Terry Francona and General Manager Chris Antonetti would seem to stand little chance of saving the season.

The Pirates' story is as familiar as that of the Indians. Last season they had the National League MVP and their other sources of offense were not guaranteed to repeat at a high level. The same could be said of the starting rotation, with only Gerrit Cole having more upside than mystery -- and that would have been true whether A.J. Burnett had returned or not.  McCutchen has more or less picked up where he left off, but with the exception of second baseman Neil Walker, virtually the rest of the lineup has struggled to get going -- Pirates shortstops, for example, are hitting an aggregate .149/.214/.160 in 104 plate appearances. The next-worst NL team, the Reds with their Cozartian disappointment, are hitting .192/.243/.288 at short, which still works out to something like 4.5 times as good.

Mercer_medium One of Jordy Mercer's 11 hits this year. (Justin K. Aller)

You hear a lot out of Pittsburgh about when ultra-outfield-prospect Gregory Polanco is coming up, which makes sense given that he's hitting about .400 at Triple-A, no exaggeration. He would likely help, assuming he has no adjustment problems -- Pirates right fielders are hitting better than their shortstops, but that's about the only compliment you can pay them -- but there's service-time to manipulate and other pressing problems, like exactly when the Gods of Baseball stop teasing and Edinson Volquez ceases to be able to post a 3.21 ERA while striking out barely five batters per nine innings, or about 13 percent, in a year in which the typical NL hitter whiffs more than a fifth of the time.

Is it too soon to give up and bury these teams, whose stories were so heartening in 2013? Objectively, we are forced to say "No." Realistically, the answer is yes, warnings from Edgar Allan Poe be damned. Sure, the Indians went 21-6 last fall, but they were also seven games over .500 when they kicked that off. So, sure, it's all over. They punted in November and December. Someone else will get to wear the glass slipper this year, possibly the Brewers. Arguably, they've done as much to earn it as last year's Pirates and Indians did, and if they make it all the way to the postseason it will be fascinating to see if they spend next winter trying to press their advantage or take the Pennsylvania-Ohio way out.


Brewers ruin Star Track night for Reds, win 2-0.

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Wily Peralta brought his laser screwdriver as he plated 2 runs and tossed 8 scoreless frames in tonight's victory.

Winning Pitcher: Wily Peralta

Losing Pitcher: Mike Leake

SV: Francisco Rodriguez

Boxscore

The game tried it's hardest early on to give me an ulcer. Wily Peralta struggled a bit in the first inning. He got out of it without giving up a run, but the second to last pitch was a near home run. It would have plated 3 runs but instead Peralta got the inning ending strikeout on the next pitch.

Then in the fourth inning Joey Votto hit what initially appeared to be a home run, to me and the Reds anyway. The umpire ruled it in play and Votto only got to second base. After the official replay used by the Reds the call was upheld and again Peralta would escape unscathed.

Prior to that in the top half of the fourth Carlos Gomez reached second on a base hit and a throwing error. Unfortunately Scooter Gennett hit a liner up the middle that froze Gomez who was then easily tagged out. Jonathan Lucroy did hit a double, but with runners at the corners and 1 out Aramis Ramirez hit into a double play.

All of that melted away in the top of the 5th. Lyle Overbay reached on a single. Caleb Gindl drew a walk. Segura hit into a fielder's choice with the out at second base. The "Big Bad' Wily Peralta came to the plate and drove in the pair with his second double of the year.

The ridiculousness returned in the fifth when, on what should have been an easy out at 1st base, Segura airmailed the throw. The runner (Reds' starter Mike Leake) was obviously safe but was also awarded second base as the ball was ruled out of play. So instead of the inning ending, there were runners at second and third. Thankfully the next pitch was a grounder fielded slickly by Scooter Gennett.

It was smooth sailing after that for Peralta. He ended his night with 8 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts and only 3 hits allowed. There were a lot of things to be impressed with tonight, but perhaps most impressive was the way Peralta was able to remain calm. Even though the defense got him into a couple of jams in the game, Peralta remained poised and got out of trouble. This start ranks just below his complete game shutout last year.

Francisco Rodriguez locked down the ninth inning, notching his 14th save of the year.

Tomorrow night sees Yovani Gallardo face Johnny Cueto in game 3. It's going to be a tough one! Start time is 6:10 pm CT.

Cubs Minor League Wrap: May 2

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The Smokies won their fifth in a row.

Congratulations to Kane County Cougars Will Remillard and Iowa Cubs Tsuyoshi Wada. who were your choices for BCB Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Month!

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs were silenced by the Nashville Sounds (Brewers), 4-3.

This game was a pitcher's duel for the first five innings as Sounds pitcher Jimmy Nelson retired the first 12 batters he faced and starter Chris Rusin kept the Sounds off the board for five innings. Unfortunately, Rusin came out for the sixth inning, allowed three runs and took the loss. Rusin allowed five hits. He walked three and struck out five.

Iowa had a chance to take the lead in the top of the ninth when center fielder Logan Watkins doubled home Chris Valaika and put runners on second and third with only one out. But both Eli Whiteside and Josh Vitters struck out to end the game.

Watkins was 2 for 4 with a double. Valaika went 2 for 3 with two doubles and a walk. Valaika scored twice.

Tennessee Smokies

The Tennessee Smokies clouded over the eyes of the Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers), 8-7. The win was Tennessee's fifth in a row.

Starter Dae-Eun Rhee put the Smokies in a hole early 5-2 hole after three innings. Rhee allowed five runs on six hits over 4.1 innings. Rhee struck out five, walked two and hit a batter.

Austin Kirk would retire the final two batters of the fifth inning, one by strikeout. He then was awarded the win when Tennessee struck for six runs in the top of the sixth.

Armando Rivero got a 1.1 inning save, his sixth of the season. He retired all four batters he faced, one by a strikeout.

Second baseman Stephen Bruno's two-run double in the top of the sixth was the big blow in that six-run inning. Bruno was 2 for 4. He would later score in the sixth inning when Dustin Geiger's bases-loaded walk forced him home.

John Andreoli had a two-run single in that six-run sixth. Andreoli was 3 for 5 and scored one run.

This was kind of a sloppy game as Tennessee committed four errors and Chattanooga made three.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs were rained out. Doubleheader tomorrow.

Kane County Cougars

The Kane County Cougars got back on the winning track by stinging the Burlington Bees (Angels) 3-2 in 11 innings.

Starter Duane Underwood allowed only two hits over 5+ innings, but since one of the hits was a two-run home run in the second inning, he was charged with two runs allowed. Underwood walked three and struck out three.

Justin Amlung kept the Cougars tied with four innings of scoreless relief. He allowed four hits and walked one. Amlung struck out four.

Tyler Bremer got the win. He pitched two innings and allowed one hit. Bremer walked two and struck out two.

DH Jordan Hankins doubled with two out in the bottom of the eleventh and scored the winning run when David Bote's infield single was thrown away by the third baseman for a game-ending error. Hankins was 1 for 4 and Bote was 2 for 5.

Kane County was helped out by three Burlington errors.

Minor League Notes, 2014-05-03

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in which Taylor Jungmann strikes a lot of people out, and more

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 16-12
Won 4-3 vs Iowa Cubs (CHC) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 18-11
Won 9-1 at Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 14-12
Postponed vs Tampa Yankees (NYY)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 12-15
Lost 8-4 vs Clinton LumberKings (SEA) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
Hector GomezNashvilleSS3212100.1972B
Lucas MayNashvilleC2020200.2502B (2)
Hunter MorrisNashville1B3100010.268
Logan SchaferNashvilleCF5000010.091
Hainley StatiaNashville2B4021000.286
Kentrail DavisHuntsvilleLF4022100.259SB
Mitch HanigerHuntsvilleRF4120010.211SB
D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF3121200.241
Jason RogersHuntsvilleDH4331000.2572B (2)
Clint CoulterWisconsinC4012020.310
Johnny DavisWisconsinCF5120020.3173B
David DensonWisconsin1B4120010.2082B
Omar GarciaWisconsinLF2110100.193
Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF4011000.2272B
PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
Dustin MollekenNashville1.00000303.06
Jimmy NelsonNashville7.06222502.08W, 4-1WP
Taylor JungmannHuntsville6.03113703.74W, 2-3WP
Tyler AlexanderWisconsin3.06443306.05L, 1-3HBP, WP
Taylor WilliamsWisconsin5.05432603.67

Brewers 2, Reds 6: Rough start for Gallardo

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Yovani Gallardo allows four runs off of nine singles in six innings tonight. Aramis Ramirez and Mark Reynolds hit solo home runs in the loss.

WP: Johnny Cueto (3-2)
LP: Yovani Gallardo (2-1)

HR: Aramis Ramirez (4), Mark Reynolds (7)

MVP: Mark Reynolds (+.089)
LVP: Yovani Gallardo (-.257)

Box Score

Win Expectancy Graph

The scoring started in the second inning as Aramis Ramirez broke his 0-for-28 slump with a leadoff solo home run.  The Reds would rally in the top of the fourth with four singles and a HBP, resulting in three runs.  Ryan Ludwick and Brayan Pena provided the RBI hits in the inning.  The Brewers would close it to 3-2 in the fifth inning with a solo home run from Mark Reynolds, but the Reds responded with a run in the sixth inning on Johnny Cueto's RBI single.

It just wasn't Yovani Gallardo's day today.  He made it through six innings on 92 pitches, but only threw 51 for strikes. Over those six innings, he allowed four runs on nine hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch.  All nine hits were singles, but the Reds took advantage of some Brewers mistakes to help score their runs.

Tyler Thornburg pitched the seventh inning and had his scoreless inning streak come to an end.  He allowed two doubles to score the first run, and then two wild pitches let the second run score.  Rob Wooten pitched a quick eight inning, pitching a 1-2-3 inning on five pitches.

The Brewers offense just couldn't get going against Johnny Cueto tonight.  Cueto struck out ten Brewers tonight and held the Brewers to a total of three hits and a walk in eight innings.  The first two hits were solo home runs, and the third hit and walk came in the eighth inning.  The Brewers tried to rally in that eighth inning with runners at first and second, but Carlos Gomez was called out on a very close play at first base, which was confirmed on replay.

The Brewers finish their four game series tomorrow in a late afternoon game in Cincinnati.  Kyle Lohse will start the final game of the series and try to get a split, and the Reds will start Alfredo Simon for the series win.  First pitch is at 3:10 pm.

Cubs Minor League Wrap: May 3

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Kris Bryant led the Smokies to their sixth straight victory.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs were silenced by the Nashville Sounds (Brewers), 3-1.

Starter Kyle Hendricks didn't pitch poorly, but he took the loss after he allowed three runs on five hits over 5.2 innings. Hendricks struck out eight and walked only two.

Iowa had three hits tonight. The only run scored in the eighth inning when pinch-hitter Lars Anderson singled home Brett Jackson, who walked. Jackson came off the DL tonight and went 0 for 2 with a walk.

Tennessee Smokies

It's six in a row for the Tennessee Smokies as they blinded the Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers), 8-4.

Starter Pierce Johnson had a much better start tonight than he did last time out and because of that, he picked up his first win of the season. Johnson pitched six innings and allowed two runs on five hits. He struck out five and walked two.

Third baseman Kris Bryant had his best night of the season with four hits in five at-bats, including his sixth home run. The home run came with a man on in the fourth inning. Bryant scored twice and just had the two RBI.

Catcher Charles Cutler went 3 for 5 with a double and four RBI. He scored twice as well.

Center fielder Rubi Silva was 2 for 5 with an RBI.

Daytona Cubs

It is really too early in the season for Daytona to be having this many rainouts. Their doubleheader was rained out again.

Kane County Cougars

The Cougars got back on the winning track by buzzing the Burlington Bees (Angels), 4-2.

Jen-Ho Tseng improved his record to 3-0 tonight. He pitched six innings and surrendered two runs on eight hits. He struck out six and didn't walk anyone.

Zach Godley got his sixth save and still hasn't allowed a run since April 5. But this time, he had to work for it. After getting the final out of the eighth inning, Godley loaded the bases in the bottom of the ninth with two outs after a bunt single, a walk and a single. But he ended the game with a line out to the right fielder. Godley pitched 1.1 innings and he struck out three.

First baseman Jacob Rogers had two doubles in a 2 for 4 game. He scored two times, one for each double.

Catcher Cael Brockmeyer came off the DL and went 2 for 4 with a double and two RBI. Left fielder Shawon Dunston went 2 for 3 with an RBI and a stolen base.

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