The Brewers issued a public statement saying there is no deal yet with Matt Garza.
Contrary to earlier reports that the Brewers have agreed to a four-year, $52 million contract with right-hander Matt Garza, the team issued a statement that there is no deal at this time.
Despite media reports, negotiations between the #Brewers and Matt Garza are ongoing, but there is no deal yet.
At the time of the original reports, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told me that "nothing has been decided yet". regarding Garza's free agency. Garza took a physical today with the Brewers, who were planning on announcing him at a press conference this afternoon, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.
Many have speculated that the holdup is due to medical concerns, but Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports that the holdup is not related to medical issues.
Now I'm hearing the holdup on Garza is not related to medical concerns. It's just taking time to wrap up the deal. Stay tuned.
For now, the deal seems to be on hold, with the reason unknown. It is very unusual for a team to issue a public statement in the manner in which the Brewers did, so this is definitely a unique situation.
At this point, the deal could obviously still happen, but it's not guaranteed. Stay tuned for rolling updates here throughout the night.
The free agent right-hander has reportedly agreed to a four-year contract with the Brewers, though the team denies a deal has been struck, saying only the negotiations are ongoing.
Free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza has signed a four-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers according to Ken Rosenthal. The terms are four years, $52 million. The deal is pending physical.
Given that the going price for top-flight starting pitching has climbed to $20 to $30 million dollars, Garza, a right-hander with a 3.84 career ERA (and a park- and league-adjusted ERA of eight percent below league average) has to be rated as something of a steal. As recently as last July's trade deadline Garza was in high demand, and the Rangers were viewed to have paid a high price in sending pitchers C.J. Edwards and Justin Grimm and third baseman Mike Olt to the Chicago Cubs to get him. Garza's indifferent pitching with the Rangers (he posted a 4.38 ERA in 13 starts after the July 22 trade) combined with some questions about the long-term health of Garza's elbow, seems to have cooled teams' ardor for him.
A former first-round pick of the Minnesota Twins with a 2010 no-hitter to his credit, Garza has never put together the kind of consistent, high-level campaign that many predicted for him. He posted a career-best 3.32 ERA with the Cubs in 2011, but was unable to follow up in 2012 due to a midseason stress fracture in his elbow that limited him to 18 starts.
This marks the second time in two winters the Brewers have dipped into the free agent pool to staff out their rotation -- last March, the club signed right-hander Kyle Lohse, who had lacked for suitors due to the attachment of a draft-pick penalty to signing him, to a three-year, $33 million contract. Lohse performed well, but the inconsistency of Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada meant that starting pitching was a problem for the Brewers throughout the season -- with an aggregate ERA of 4.20, Brewers' starters ranked 11th in the National League.
Though the amount of money in the deal may seem slight by the standards of recent pitching mega-deals, it is the most the Brewers have ever spent on a free agent (per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).
It was long predicted that Masahiro Tanaka's uncertain status was holding up the resolution of less-attractive free agents such as Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez. With Tanaka agreeing to a contract with the Yankees on Wednesday, it seems that the remaining free agent starters will now be clear to find homes for the 2014 season.
Garza and the Brewers reportedly agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal earlier on Thursday, with Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal breaking the news that the deal was done pending a physical. Immediate concerns were that the Brewers found something in the physical that would present a problem, but the actual issue is that a final agreement has not been reached, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Garza has made only 42 starts over the last two seasons due to an elbow injury and muscle strain but made the most of his limited time, posting a 3.86 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 with the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers in 2012 and 2013.
If the deal goes through, it will represent the largest ever given by the Brewers to a free-agent pitcher.
The list was unveiled on MLB Network Thursday night.
2010 second round pick Jimmy Nelson has cruised through the upper levels of the minors over the last two seasons, making 50 starts and posting a 3.05 ERA while climbing the organizational ladder from Brevard County to Nashville. Then he followed up that performance by allowing just one run on two hits in ten innings of work as a September callup. It appears those efforts have not gone unnoticed.
MLB.com unveiled their ranking of baseball's top 100 prospects on Thursday night, and Nelson is on the list for the first time at #83. He's come a long way since being compared to Jeff Suppan on draft day.
Nelson was one of 39 right handed pitchers included on the list this year, and was ranked a few spots behind Diamondbacks prospect Braden Shipley (#79) and just ahead of Mets pitcher Rafael Montero (#85).
MLB.com also ranked Nelson as the top prospect in the Brewers organization last winter, and had him 87th on their top 100. In each of the last two years he's been the only Brewer mentioned.
All parties involved are denying that the holdup has anything to do with Garza's physical, which makes the sudden delay all the more unusual. @Haudricourt reports he's never seen anything like it.
While we wait for some kind of update on what's happening, here's a collection of reaction to the (now potential) deal from around the web:
Jack Moore of Sports on Earth notes that Garza is one of just three pitchers who have worked at least 80 innings with an ERA under 4 in every season since 2007.
Parker Hageman of Twins Daily compares the Garza deal to what the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco, and says Garza has had a "slightly better" career.
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs says "as far as this particular move is concerned, it's hard not to like it. I'd say it's also hard to love it, but for the Brewers it's a good upside play."
Over at Cream City Cables, Nathan Petrashek says "even if the Brewers may not be the most competitive team in 2014, they'll at least be one of the more entertaining ones."
Garza's "maybe, maybe not" situation made it tough for me to finalize this week's Thursday Thinker, a list of the Brewers' spring training invitees.
While we wait to hear about Garza, we do have other notes on players who have signed. Mark Reynolds, scheduled to come to camp as a non-roster invitee, will appear at Brewers On Deck this weekend. So will Dennis Haskins, the actor who played Mr. Belding on Saved By The Bell.
Maybe the Brewers can assign Haskins an honorary jersey number. As part of their annual "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series, The Brewer Nation has quick profiles of the nine players who will come to spring training with jersey numbers above 67.
If the Brewers do sign Matt Garza, it will likely increase pressure on Ron Roenicke to win again in 2014. GammonsDaily.com has him as one of six candidates in their poll asking which managers on the hot seat will be fired this season.
Congratulations are also due out to Johnny Hellweg, who yesterday was named the 2013 Nashville Sound of the Year by the Old Timers Baseball Association. (h/t @NashvilleSounds)
John Sickels of Minor League Ball is working on his list of the top prospects in the Brewers organization for 2014 and has opened up the floor for discussion.
Juan Francisco went 3-for-4 with a solo home run but it was not enough as Licey lost 6-5 to Escogido in the Dominican championship series (box score). Licey now leads the best-of-nine series 3-1.
Giants: Signed infielder Joaquin Arias to a two-year, $2.6 million contract, avoiding arbitration. Indians: Signed pitcher David Aardsma to a minor league deal. Orioles: Signed pitcher Aaron Laffey to a minor league deal. Rays: Signed reliever Grant Balfour to a two-year, $12 million contract and designated pitcher Pedro Figueroa for assignment. Royals: Signed pitcher Jon Rauch to a minor league deal.
Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Sandy Valdespino, who turns 75. Valdespino was a pinch hitter in the Brewers' first game in Milwaukee in 1970.
Today is also the second anniversary of Prince Fielder signing with the Tigers, putting a punctuation mark on his Brewers career, and the seventh anniversary of the Brewers signing Martin Maldonado as a minor league free agent in 2007. We covered those events in Today In Brewer History last year and two years ago, respectively.
Would the current Brewers stand a chance against a team composed of their active alumni?
Every day near the end of the Frosty Mug I list the day's news stories involving former Brewers. It seems like there's a former Brewer on every team and coaching staff, every niche Hall of Fame and obscure list.
There are, of course, countless former members of the Milwaukee Brewers still playing across Major League Baseball. Today I'm wondering: Could this current Brewers team outperform a team of active former Brewers over a full season? This is part one of a multi-part series considering the possibility.
We'll open the series with a look around the infield, starting behind the plate. First, though, we'll set one rule: For the purpose of this conversation "former Brewer" only means someone who appeared in a regular season game in a Brewer uniform.
There are nine active MLB catchers who have appeared in at least one game behind the plate as Brewers. Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado are two, so that leaves the F-Brewers with seven candidates: Henry Blanco, who is 42 years old is probably the best backup candidate. Aside from Kottaras and Blanco, no active catcher appeared in more than 20 games for Milwaukee. Brief backup Yorvit Torrealba is a candidate, but it almost feels like cheating to allow him.
Kottaras is no slouch at the plate with a career .730 OPS, but there's really no contest here. Lucroy is a clear upgrade over Kottaras defensively, his career OPS is 27 points higher and he's three years younger. Advantage: Brewers
There's also no contest here, but this time the pendulum swings in the other direction. Fielder had his worst season as a big leaguer in 2013 and still hit .279/.362/.457 with 25 home runs and 106 RBI and was an AL All Star. If the Brewers get anything close to that from their collection of first basemen in 2014 they'll be elated. Advantage: Former Brewers
In an ideal world I think I'd take Hairston, but he retired this winter. Bill Hall spent most of 2013 playing independent ball. So the best options are probably either Ransom, a career .213/.303/.400 hitter who turns 38 in February, or Yuniesky Betancourt.
Regardless of which of those bad options you select, I think it's safe to assume that Scooter Gennett (or Rickie Weeks) will outperform them by a wide margin. Advantage: Brewers
This might be the most interesting matchup on the entire roster, so much so that I considered giving it its own post. Jean Segura was awesome in 2013, surpassing expectations and entertaining us daily. His speed and defense would make him valuable by himself, but he was also a pretty nice offensive contributor with a .294/.329/.423 batting line and 12 home runs.
On the other hand, you have a much more proven MLB talent in Hardy. While Segura makes good things happen with his speed, Hardy's single offensive asset is his power. He has five seasons of 20 or more home runs despite posting a career OBP of just .312.
Both players are excellent defenders, although they do it in completely different ways. Segura consistently surprised us in 2013 by making plays on balls hit to his right, while Hardy may be the best shortstop in baseball on balls hit to his left. Hardy is a two-time defending AL Gold Glove winner. Both players were All Stars in 2013.
In the end, the context of the question matters. If you were building a team for the next ten years, you'd take Segura without thinking twice. But if you're trying to build a team to win in 2014 (which we're doing), I think you'd take Hardy with his longer track record and established power. There's probably no wrong answer here. Advantage: Former Brewers
Like second base, this is based on my favorite option from a relatively weak group of former Brewer candidates. There are 17 active players who have appeared in at least one game at third base for the Brewers, but seven of them are still in the organization. Bill Hall, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mat Gamel and the previously-used Cody Ransom are among the others.
Casey McGehee is back in the big leagues with the Marlins in 2014 after a nice bounce-back season in Japan, but his best MLB season (.301/.360/.499 in 116 games for the Brewers in 2009) is only about a dozen OPS points better than Aramis Ramirez's career average. Ramirez's health is a concern, but I still think he's clearly the better player. Advantage: Brewers
So, after five positions, here's where we stand: The current Brewers have major advantages at catcher, second base and third base. The former Brewers have a major advantage at first base and an arguable advantage at shortstop. We'll continue the project next week.
This week's lessons includes the paradox of Matt Garza's contract, currently in an unknown state where he's both signed and not signed at the same time, and the only way to know which is true is to reveal the contract.
Matt Garza's contract is a paradox.
Late this week, we got introduced to the paradox of Schrodinger's Cat Matt Garza's contract. The contract is currently in a state where it both exists and does not exist at the same time. The paradox first came out on Thursday afternoon, when reports surfaced that the Brewers had signed Garza to a 4 year/$52 million deal. The deal was a surprise to everyone, who didn't see the Brewers making a deal that big this offseason or getting Garza at that contract. It provided a lot of optimism that the Brewers could compete for a wild card spot in the offseason.
However, the contract had another twist come up on Thursday night. Instead of getting an announcement of the official deal, the Brewers instead announced that they were just in negotiations with Garza. It was an odd twist in the signing, and led to a lot of speculation about what the delay could be. Reports said that the physical was fine and wasn't related to health issues. Other reports came out saying it was just a matter of figuring out the details. The Brewers have been silent on the contract, so for now, we're waiting in this paradox where the Brewers have made a major signing, and where nothing has changed.
The first base situation continues to get more interesting.
Last week, the Brewers first base competition really got going when the Brewers announced the signing of Mark Reynolds to a minor league contract. It wasn't the big name to get everyone too excited, but it was enough of an upgrade to get a positive feeling going. Over on Beyond the Box Score, Evan Kendall examined the Brewers situation at first base with Reynolds, and noted that while Reynolds isn't a great player, he will be an improvement over what the Brewers have. That was also the general consensus by many other people, and considering what the Brewers had last season, it makes a lot of sense.
Before Reynolds signed, one of the possibilities that was discussed is moving one of the other starters to first base to cover the gap there. Some of the depth at other positions prompted the discussions, thinking that it would be easier to replace another position over finding a replacement at first base. Eric Nehm broke down this possibility on Saturday of last week, using WAR to show how different players would be affected with a move to first base.
The first base situation got even more interesting this week when another surprise signing happened. On Monday, the Brewers added to the first base competition with the addition of Lyle Overbay on a minor-league deal. Overbay is returning to the Brewers after leaving in a trade, though this time he is coming in to compete for the job. In the course of a week, the first base competition went from nothing there to a significant competition. It's much more exciting to think about now.
Of course, despite the competition that will occur at first now, it's still not a very good situation compared to what the Brewers had when Prince Fielder was at first base. It brings up a question worth thinking about: How are the Brewers doing compared to former Brewers at other positions? Kyle analyzed this exact possibility on Friday, looking at the infield positions and comparing the incumbent starter for the Brewers to the best former Brewer starter still active. The end result was that the Brewers are doing better at second base, third base, and catcher, while not doing as well at first base and shortstop.
Of the two the bigger name is Jeremy Hermida, an eight-year MLB outfielder as a member of the Marlins, Red Sox, A's, Reds and Padres. He's a career .257/.334/.415 hitter but has struggled to find time in the majors in recent years, falling from being an everyday player from 2007-09 to making just 13 MLB appearances with the Padres in 2012. He spent all of 2013 with the Indians' AAA affiliate, batting .247/.365/.416 with 17 home runs.
Hermida was the #11 overall pick in the 2002 draft and in 2006 Baseball America listed him as the #4 prospect in all of baseball. He's still just 29 years old, and will turn 30 on Thursday.
The other signee is infielder Joe Thurston, a 31-year-old seven-year MLB veteran perhaps best known for playing in 124 games as a member of the Cardinals in 2009. He's only played in one MLB game since, as a member of the Marlins in 2011. Thurston is a career .226/.305/.323 hitter in the minors and is primarily a second baseman. He split 2013 between independent ball and the Mexican Leagues, hitting .297/.390/.422 in 561 plate appearances, and is 34 years old.
The Brewers did not specify if either player received an invitation to major league spring training in Maryvale, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them there.
UPDATE: @Mass_Haas confirms:
#Brewers own transaction and roster pages now indicate that IF/OF Joe Thurston and OF Jeremy Hermida did receive big league camp invites.
Garza's agent wasn't shopping his player elsewhere, the deal didn't fall through. The Brewers and Garza just needed to work out some language in the contract.
Further update: Adam McCalvy has a little extra on Garza's contract details. There is a vesting option for a fifth year.
Hearing Garza's 4-yr deal with #Brewers guarantees $50mm, with $4mm more available in incentives and a vesting option for 5th year at $13mm
Nex Balelo, Garza's agent, also textedBowden with the following statement: "Matt's patience throughout the process has been unbelievable. Every decision this off-season was made with a lot of thought and due diligence. Matt is going to land in a spot he feels is the best fit for hime and his family."
The Brewers appear pretty adamant that the delay in completing the deal is not due to any health concerns. Rather, the two sides just had certain language and clauses that needed to be worked out in the contract before anything could be announced.
So for now, the deal is basically complete without actually being complete. Everyone thinks it will be done soon. Balelo's statement sure sounds like the decision has been made, the Brewers sound like it's a done deal, beat reporters, national reporters...even Ryan Braun thinks Garza is as good as signed:
Ryan Braun, who shares an agent with Garza, hints, "Maybe a big announcement today. Maybe." #Brewers
Garza's going to be a Brewer next season. It's just a matter of working out a few things. He may already have signed his contract, but the team hasn't announced it. Regardless, any fears that the deal has fallen through can likely be alleviated.
Team owner Mark Attanasio announced that the deal is for four years, but that it is still going through the league's final approval process, per Rosiak. Earlier reports had pegged the contract at $52 million, but Adam McCalvy of MLB.com says that it will guarantee around $50 million with a vesting option for a fifth year worth an additional $13 million. All told, the total value could reach $67 million if all incentives are reached.
News of the deal first broke on Thursday, but the team quickly denied that a final agreement had been reached. However, it appears that the two sides have hammered out the details and put pen to paper. General manager Doug Melvin reiterated that the holdup had nothing to do with any concerns regarding Garza's physical, per Rosiak.
The addition of Garza gives the Brewers a solid rotation. The 30-year-old right-hander will join Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada, with youngster Tyler Thornburg waiting in the wings. Garza posted a 3.82 ERA last year in 24 starts split between the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers. Unfortunately, his return to the National League means that he will have to hit again, or at least attempt to; he is 12-for-123 in his career with 74 strikeouts, two doubles and a .098/.126/.114 batting line.
Free agent righty Matt Garza signed a four year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers worth $52 million
On Thursday, it was reported that Matt Garza and the Milwaukee Brewers had a deal in place for four years and $52million pending something. On Sunday, Brewers owner Mark Attanasio removed any uncertainty surrounding the negotiations when he confirmed the signing, which looks to be fours and $50 million with the possibility of a vesting fifth year at $13 million.
The Brewers finished the 2013 season in fourth place in the NL Central with a seemingly okay pitching staff. It wasn't the best, but it wasn't a complete disaster and this move should help bolster the rotation for a Brewers' team that hopes to be competitive this season.
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
ERA
FIP
xFIP
fWAR
918.2
6.61
2.83
1.18
.289
4.20
4.31
4.07
5.8
With the addition of Matt Garza, the Brewers' starting rotation looks to add about two wins to their 2013 totals and while it's certainly not enough to bring the team into contention, it's a start.
When you look at Garza's stats, you can see that he was above-average last season in split time between the Cubs and Rangers. His league adjusted numbers were only slightly above average (93 ERA-, 95 FIP-, 96 xFIP) , but it might be just what the Brewers need - the addition of a league-average arm to their staff.
There's also Garza's familiarity with the NL Central, as he spent the last two and a half seasons with the Cubs before being traded to the Rangers, so it won't be like dropping a member of the Padres into the AL East and hoping they can hold their own. However, it also should be noted that he was worth -0.5 rWAR during his time with the Cubs compared to his 6.0 fWAR in two full seasons with the with the North Siders, so there's some uncertainty in our evaluations of his performance. Regardless of your WAR preference, Garza will likely add some more value to the Brewers because $13 million a year doesn't demand a Cy Young award winner. A quality start every fifth day would be great for the Brewers, and the early projections on Garza say he's capable of that.
With a 2014 rotation that should also include Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta, I would assume that Garza would be slotted somewhere near the top of the rotation — perhaps as the second starter. As for the three years after that (and possibly a fourth depending on the details surrounding the vesting option), as long as Garza can stay healthy (he did just turn 30) and can keep up slightly above average numbers, it's safe to assume he could be a middle of the rotation starter for the next Brewers playoff contender on a deal that shouldn't preclude other improvements.
Garza's new contract guarantees him $50 million through 2017 with a vesting option for the 2018 season. The total amount he can earn could reach as high as $67 million -- if his option vests, and he meets all of the specifications for the incentives included in the deal. The full details of the have not yet been released.
Since the contract is somewhat unorthodox, it's easy to see why it took the team a little extra time to make the announcement. The signing was originally announced on Thursday, but the team denied those reports, saying they were still in talks with Garza, but no deal had been finalized. Negotiations for the fifth year might have been the cause of the delay, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt.
Garza, 30, owns a 3.84 ERA over his eight-year career with the Twins, Rays, Cubs, and Rangers. He will join a Brewers rotation that features Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, and Kyle Lohse -- who was scooped up on a similar late-offseason deal last year. However, unlike Lohse, Garza was not attached to draft compensation
Despite a solid stretch from 2008 to 2011, Garza has struggled with injuries recently, managing just 259 innings over the last two seasons. When healthy, he has been consistently above average. He hasn't posted an ERA- above 100 (league average) since his rookie year as a Twin in 2006, and his career ERA- (93) checks in at seven percent above average.
All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Some end up as role players or bench guys. Many don't make it at all.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise, and some C+ prospects (especially at lower levels) turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grade A: Borderline A-. He was rushed to the majors, but his fastball and changeup are outstanding pitches, the makeup is excellent, and I am optimistic that the breaking stuff will come along just fine.
2) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Grade A-: Basically we have to wait around and see how Tommy John recovery goes.
3) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Grade B: Velocity seems to rise a notch each year and he finished very strong in Double-A. He doesn’t turn 21 until April and I think he needs another year in the high minors, but he could become a mid-rotation starter.
4) Hunter Harvey, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+: OK now that looks weird, having Harvey behind Rodriguez but with Harvey having a “borderline” notation that Rodriguez doesn’t get. This is because I am undecided here frankly. I am certain that I am going to rate Rodriguez as a B. But Harvey I am undecided on, and if I go with B+ he will move a notch ahead of Eduardo. The thing here is that Rodriguez is more proven, but I think Harvey may have a higher ceiling. I’ll revisit this when I work on the Top 50 pitchers list.
5) Henry Urrutia, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-. Aggressive grade for someone who turns 27 next month, but I think his power is going to blossom this year and I already like his pure hitting skills.
6) Jonathan Schoop, INF, Grade B-: Very good glove at second base, throwing arm is good enough for short although range there isn’t as good. I think his power will increase as well although this is not a guy who is going to hit .300.
7) Michael Ohlman, C, Grade B-: I love this bat.Although I don’t see him hitting .300+ at higher levels, I expect the power to maintain, if not increase. Questions about ultimate position and desire to see him hit in Double-A prevent a higher grade at this time. 8) Mike Wright, RHP, Grade B-: Eats innings and throws strikes with solid-but-not-spectacular stuff. I don’t see why he can’t be a good fourth starter if he continues to throw strikes. Think Jeff Suppan as a possible outcome.
9) Chance Sisco, C, Grade B-: Scouting reports indicate that he should hit for average with OBP skills and potential for moderate power, which is backed up by the early rookie ball numbers (.371/.475/.464). Defense has potential as well. Could rank much higher next year.
10) Tim Berry, LHP, Grade C+: Although scouting reports are more enthusiastic this year, Berry’s ’13 season was not much different performance-wise than his ’12 as his component ratios remained very similar. FIPs were virtually identical and he was pitching at the same level. Ability to throw strikes with fastball/curveball/changeup makes him a potential fourth starter.
11) Parker Bridwell, RHP, Grade C+: Don’t be deceived by 4.73 ERA in Low-A: he made a lot of progress in ’13, with large improvement in strikeout ratio and much better command in last few starts, 37/10 K/BB in last 36 innings. Has always thrown hard and if command is coming around, he’ll take a large step forward in ’14. 12) Zach Davies, RHP, Grade C+: Another potential fourth starter type, very similar statistically to Wright but three years younger and six inches shorter. Excellent pitchability, posted 132/38 K/BB in 149 innings in High-A at age 20. Does not have Bridwell’s physical upside but more polished.
13) Branden Kline, RHP, Grade C+: University of Virginia product missed most of season with leg injury. When healthy, can get up to 95 MPH and has a good slider. Potential number three starter although some scouts prefer him in relief.
14) Stephen Tarpley, LHP, Grade C+: Very athletic, live-armed lefty posted 2.14 ERA with 25/3 K/BB in 21 innings in rookie ball after being drafted in third round from Arizona community college. Good upside if other factors don’t get in the way.
15) Adrian Marin, SS, Grade C+: Borderline C. Excellent defensive shortstop with range, arm strength, and reliability all standing out. Not a great hitter at this point, .265/.311/.356 in Low-A, but he is young at age 19 and he could develop into an Adam Everett type and have a long career.
16) Josh Hart, OF, Grade C+: Borderline C. Supplemental first round pick from Georgia high school shows excellent speed and makes an effort to work counts, although .218/.302/.286 line in rookie ball shows that there is a lot of work to do.
17) Christian Walker, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline C. Polished University of South Carolina product ripped A-ball pitching, hit .300/.362/.453 overall despite Double-A slump. Scouts wonder if he’ll have enough power for a big league first baseman. 18) Drew Dosch, 3B, Grade C: Showed fine pure hitting skills at Youngstown State leading to selection in seventh round, but didn’t make pro debut due to knee injury. Home run power is questioned, but he’s expected to hit for average and get on base at a good clip.
19) Tyler Wilson, RHP, Grade C: Prototype Grade C pitching prospect, throws strikes with average stuff, non-great but not terrible numbers in Double-A (4.09 ERA, 118/47 K/BB), eats innings. Fifth starter or relief option.
20) Trey Mancini, 1B, Grade C; and Conor Bierfeldt, OF, Grade C: A tie, which I’ve never done before but what the hell. College hitters from ’13 draft, Mancini from Notre Dame and Biefeldt from Western Connecticut, both hit extremely well in the New York-Penn League with wRC+ marks of 160 and 161. We need to see at higher levels but the NY-P is not the Pioneer League and both performed well enough to qualify as sleeper prospects.You could make a case to slot most of the “other” guys here, but I wanted to point out these two.
OTHERS: Michael Almanzar, 3B; Dariel Alvarez, Of; Michael Belfiore, LHP; Steven Brault, LHP; Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP; Oliver Drake, RHP; Jason Gurka, LHP; Jon Keller, RHP; Francisco Peguero, OF; Luc Rennie, RHP; Lex Rutledge, LHP; Travis Seabrooke, LHP; Sebastian Vader, RHP; Mike Yastrzemski, OF.
COMMENTS:
Another middle of the pack system I think. The Orioles have developed some very intriguing pitching depth. You have two potential number one starters in Bundy and Gausman, then a large group of arms that could fit in the middle or back of a rotation or provide some bullpen help. If Harvey pans out, he could join Bundy and Gausman among the Grade A-elite types within the next year.
As the history of the recent past in Baltimore shows, having good pitching prospects is not the same thing as having good major league pitchers. You have to get them over the hump, but the arms have to come from somewhere and it looks to me like the scouts are doing their job finding the raw material.
Hitting depth is much less impressive. While there are some intriguing bats, all of them have a question of some kind: will Urrutia show more power? Can Schoop get on base enough? What about Ohlman’s glove? They’ve made an attempt to bring in some polished college bats but will these guys handle upper-level pitching? Are there any Matt Carpenters or Paul Goldschmidts in this group?
Overall while there are still weaknesses that have to be addressed, I’d say the Duquette Administration has made progress.
We are 17 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, and after a false start the Brewers finally announced their biggest acquisition of the offseason on Sunday: Matt Garza's new deal is done and will be four years at $50 million with a vesting option for 2018. Jim Bowden of ESPN reports (via Twitter) that the deal could reach a value of $67 million if Garza maxes out his incentives and the option year.
As you might expect, we have lots more on Garza from around the web:
@Haudricourt reports that the holdup on the deal was scheduling payments of deferred salary and setting the threshold for the vesting option.
Derek Harvey of The Book of Gorman says the signing "doesn't put the Brewers in contention for the NL Central. However, it may just put them in the conversation for one of the Wild Card spots."
Justin Millar of MLB Daily Dish is slightly less optimistic, saying "Overall, the Garza signing should make Milwaukee a considerably better team in 2014, but whether or not they will be good enough to compete in a deep National League playoff race is another matter."
Garza's signing meant a wardrobe change for Logan Schafer, who started the day Sunday wearing the #22 uniform that now belongs to the Brewers' latest acquisition. Schafer will now wear Corey Hart's old #1. If you're looking for Schafer's old #22, it might still be in one of the trash cans at the Wisconsin Center.
Schafer won't be the only young Brewer sporting a new number this spring: @JaymesL noticed that Tyler Thornburg is moving to #30 for 2014. He wore #63 for his 18 MLB appearances last season.
Reliever Kevin Shackleford will be wearing #60 when he joins the team at his first major league spring training in a couple of weeks, but yesterday he was wearing #2 or #4: He tweeted a picture of he and Hiram Burgos trying on the Racing Sausage costumes.
Shackelford and Burgos were two of dozens of current and former players in attendance for Brewers On Deck this weekend as over 14,000 fans crammed into the Wisconsin Center to meet their favorite players and more. Our own Nathan Petrashek posted his autograph haul in our Tweet of the Day:
If not for the Garza signing, the big story from On Deck yesterday might have been a relatively rare public appearance from Ryan Braun, who addressed the fans as part of his ongoing effort to rehab his image. Adam McCalvy has quotes from Braun, who seems to recognize that he faces an ongoing challenge. Dave Brown of Yahoo recapped the appearance and says "There's nothing else that Ryan Braun can do except stay clean (or, let's face it - avoid getting caught) while continuing to mash taters."
Jonathan Lucroy was in attendance at On Deck yesterday, but continues to fly beneath the radar a bit as one of the cornerstones of this Brewers team. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com included the Brewers catcher on his All-Underrated team.
Tom Gorzelanny was also in attendance, taking a break from rehab on his surgically repaired right shoulder. He's still not throwing yet but told Andrew Gruman of FS Wisconsin he expects to be ready for Opening Day.
Hermida has never homered in 13 career games at Miller Park, but maybe he'll get a chance this season. Grant Brisbee of Baseball Nation is rating parks by their home run aesthetics, and listed Miller Park as the tenth best.
In the minors:
Martin Maldonado wasn't at On Deck on Sunday because he was too busy going 1-for-3 with a walk, RBI and run scored as Mayaguez beat Caguas 5-1 to clinch the Puerto Rican winter league championship (box score). Irving Falu went 1-for-4 for the champions in their final game. @PrimeraHora has a photo from the postgame celebration.
Unfortunately, reliever Jose De La Torre was on the flip side of the coin. He allowed four runs in the eighth inning as Mayaguez rallied for the win.
Meanwhile in the Dominican Republic, Juan Francisco went 0-for-2, was hit by a pitch and drove in a run with a sac fly in Licey's 9-6 loss to Escogido (box score). The best-of-nine Dominican championship series is now tied at three games apiece.
On Friday the Brevard County Manatees announced that they'll be traveling to Vero Beach, Florida on April 15 to play a game against the Lakeland Tigers at the historic "Dodgertown" facility for Jackie Robinson Day.
Back in Milwaukee, the Brewers announced several additions and changes to Miller Park for 2014 over the weekend. The headline attraction is likely to be the second Bob Uecker statue, but the team will also be adding an AJ Bombers location on the patio on the field level down the first base line. AJ Bombers currently has locations in Milwaukee and Madison and is most famous, of course, for both having appeared on Food Wars and having hosted the first-ever BCB meetup.
The Brewers are also adding to their broadcasting team: Over the weekend they announced that longtime Badgers radio voice Matt Lepay will fill in on 35 TV broadcasts this season while Brian Anderson is off fulfilling national broadcasting obligations. Craig Coshun, who had filled in for Anderson in the past, will also remain with FS Wisconsin as a pre and post-game host.
Braves: Re-signed pitcher Freddy Garcia to a minor league deal. Cubs: Avoided arbitration with pitcher Travis Wood (one year, $3.9 million). Diamondbacks: Signed first baseman/outfielder Shelley Duncan to a minor league contract. Dodgers: Signed outfielder Trayvon Robinson to a minor league deal. Giants: Acquired pitcher David Huff from the Yankees for cash. Indians: Hired Charles Nagy to an unnamed coaching position. Mariners: Signed pitchers Mark Rogers and Joe Beimel to minor league deals. Marlins: Signed infielder Ty Wigginton to a minor league deal. Mets: Signed pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka to a minor league deal. Phillies: Avoided arbitration with outfielder Ben Revere (one year, $1.95 million). White Sox: Signed manager Robin Ventura to a multi-year contract extension.
Today in former Brewers:
The Brew Crew Ball community's shadow Walk of Fame vote netted four new inductees for 2014: Teddy Higuera, Geoff Jenkins, Pete Vuckovich and Ben Oglivie. In reality, the writers tasked with voting for honorees on the Miller Park walk chose no new honorees this year.
On Friday we started a project comparing the 2014 Brewers to a team comprised of active former members of the team. You can see the infield matchup here.
The minor league signings just keep coming lately, as today the Brewers announced they've signed veteran utilityman Pete Orr to a minor league deal. Orr is 34 and has played for three MLB teams over eight seasons, posting a career .257/.289/.328 batting line while playing second base, third base and occasionally left field.
Orr has spent most of the recent years in AAA, appearing at that level in every season since 2007. He appeared in 95 games last season for Lehigh Valley in the Phillies organization and hit .258/.300/.385 with four home runs. He's played at least 289 minor league games at third base, shortstop and second, so his positional flexibility may be the primary source of his value.
Orr bats left handed, throws right and was born in Canada. His only regular work in the majors came as a member of the Braves in 2005 and 2006, when he appeared in a combined 224 games but made just 326 plate appearances. He's likely to receive an invitation to big league spring training and his flexibility could give him a shot at a 25th man role, but he's more likely to spend much of the season with Nashville.
First, let's distinguish Garza from Lynn. The newest Brewer has been a big-leaguer since 2006. He's made 191 starts in the majors and tallied 1,182 1/3 innings pitched. Garza has track record in MLB that Lynn does not.
For a pitcher, having a track record means usage. The wears and tears of repeating the unnatural motion of throwing a baseball thousands of times each year takes a toll on the body. Garza has had some problems with his pitching elbow:
An inflamed radial nerve landed Garza on the 15-day disabled list in 2008.
In 2011, Garza suffered a bone contusion to his right elbow that resulted in 19 days on the DL.
A 2012 stress fracture in Garza's throwing elbow landed him on the 60-day DL.
There were some reports that concerns over the health of Garza's throwing elbow were what held up the deal over the weekend.
Lynn lacks both Garza's 191-start track record and the wear and tear that comes with it. Other than that, the two pitchers share a similar profile. This includes, to a degree, platoon splits. While Garza has not always shown a split between his performance against lefthanded and righthanded batters, one has emerged the last two seasons. That being said, Lynn's is even more pronounced than Garza's.
For example, lefthanded batsmen posted a .340 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) off Lynn in 2013 while righties managed just a .291 wOBA. Last year, Garza held righthanders to a .303 wOBA and lefthanders hit for a .320 wOBA against him. Lynn's 2013 platoon splits were more yawning than Garza's. How does this work out in the end? The two have to date allowed the other team to score earned runs at about the same rate.
LYNN vs. GARZA: ERA
As the above chart shows, if we go strictly by ERA, Lynn and Garza are remarkably similar pitchers. Run prevention is what pitching is all about, so it's fair to tie the two righties together based on the rate at which they allow the opposition to plate runs. But their peripherals indicate that Lynn might be a better pitcher than Garza as the two prepare for the 2014 season.
LYNN vs. GARZA: K%
LYNN vs. GARZA: BB%
As the two charts demonstrate, Lynn strikes out opposing batters at a higher rate than Garza while the newest Brewer issues walks at a lower rate. This results in Lynn's 2.77 K/BB over his career being a bit better than Garza's 2.55.
LYNN vs. GARZA: HR/FB
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is calculated using only those outcomes that a pitcher has control over: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Given their respective K/BB and HR/FB rates, it's not much of a surprise that Lynn has a lower FIP than Garza.
LYNN vs. GARZA: FIP
To be sure, Lynn has posted his lower FIP while pitching his home games in the run-suppressing confines of Busch Stadium while Garza has pitched most recently in the comparatively hitter-friendly ballparks of Wrigley Field and the Ballpark at Arlington. FIP- is a stat which compares a pitcher's performance to that of the league as a whole while adjusting for park effects. It is scaled to 100 with each point below 100 being one percentage point better than average and each point above 100,equaling a percentage point below average. In 2012, Lynn posted a 92 FIP- while Garza's was 103. Last year, Garza's FIP- was 95 to Lynn's 90. After adjusting for park effects, Lynn was still the better pitcher by FIP.
We know that a pitcher's FIP in a given year is more predictive of his next season's ERA than is a pitcher's ERA. It's true that some pitchers can establish a skill for defying FIP by allowing runs at a rate below the level at which his FIP suggests he pitched (e.g., Tom Glavine) and others can defy FIP in the opposite way, by allowing runs at a rate higher than his FIP indicates he should (e.g., Ricky Nolasco). These cases are typically exceptions to the general rule of thumb. Applying this rule to Garza and Lynn, the Cardinals' righty ought to have a better 2014 than the Brewers' new $50 million man. And Lynn will do so while earning something less than $600,000.
It's already Tuesday in Sydney, but here we're only a day late celebrating Australian-born Brewers.
On January 26, 1788, the First Fleet of British ships arrived at Sydney Cove, New South Wales, seeking to establish a penal colony in Australia. Amazingly enough, the anniversary of that event is celebrated annually as "Australia Day." This year's celebration was on Sunday, although for most of the US it was still Saturday.
According to Wikipedia, observances of Australia Day include family gatherings, picnics and barbecues, the presentation of the "Australian of the Year" Award and the unveiling of the "Triple J Hottest 100." I'd like to add another observance to that list: an annual toast to the Australian baseball players who have appeared in games for the Milwaukee Brewers.
From 1884-1992 there were just two Australian born major leaguers: Second baseman Joe Quinn played 17 MLB seasons across eight teams and four leagues from 1884-1901, and shortstop Craig Shipley played eleven seasons as a member of five teams in the 1980's and 90's. Since, however, 26 more Australian-born players have joined that list, and nearly 25% of them have ties to the Brewers.
We'll start, of course, with Brisbane native and catcher Dave Nilsson, who was only the third Aussie in MLB history when he made his Brewers debut on May 18, 1992. Nilsson appeared in 837 games as a Brewer over eight MLB seasons, making him the longest tenured Australian-born player in MLB history. He was an AL All Star in his final season in 1999, hitting .309/.400/.554 with 21 home runs in 115 games.
Shortly after Nilsson's debut he was joined by Geelong native Graeme Lloyd, who had a long major league career as a left handed reliever. In 1993 Lloyd and Nilsson became MLB's first all-Aussie battery. Lloyd spent his first four big league seasons in Milwaukee, appearing in 183 games and posting a 3.67 ERA. All told, his 533 innings pitched and 568 pitching appearances are the most ever for an Australian-born player. (more on that later)
After Nilsson and Lloyd's departure the Brewers went without an Australian for a few years before signing Sydney native and infielder Trent Durrington to a minor league contract. Durrington appeared in 81 games as a Brewer between the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and even pitched in a game in 2004.
Today Sydney native Grant Balfouris known as one of baseball's most effective relievers, but when he joined the Brewers in 2007 it was his first MLB appearance in nearly three years. He struggled in three games with the Crew, posting a 20.25 ERA over just 2.2 innings before being traded to Tampa Bay in the deal that brought Seth McClung to Milwaukee. Since the start of the 2008 season, however, Balfour has a 2.74 ERA over 383 appearances. He needs to pitch 60 more innings and make 103 more appearances to pass Graeme Lloyd for the Australian career lead on both lists.
The other two Australian major leaguers with Brewers ties both only played for the organization in the minors: Pitcher Chris Oxspring made 18 starts for AAA Nashville in 2007, and outfielder Trent Oeltjen played in 70 games for the Sounds in 2010. Oxspring was a big leaguer with the 2005 Padres, and Oeltjen got the call with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers between 2009-11.
So, with the acknowledgement that we're a couple of days behind, we'd like to wish a happy Australia Day to all of you and to the Aussie Brewers.
Could the best active former Brewers beat the 2014 team? We're looking at that question in this multi-part series.
On Friday we started what's likely to be a five-part series looking at the 2014 Brewers as compared to a team comprised of former Brewers who are still active around baseball. Last week we concluded that the current Brewers have a clear edge at catcher, second and third base but trail slightly at shortstop and by a wide margin at first base.
Today we'll move on to the outfield, where some of the matchups are a little closer.
Right field: Ryan Braun vs Nelson Cruz
We'll open with a matchup of two players likely to be booed all over baseball in 2014. Both Braun and Cruz were suspended for connections with Biogenesis in 2013, although Cruz returned to play in the Rangers' one-game playoff when they finished tied for the final Wild Card spot. Even with the suspension, Cruz has averaged 27 home runs per season since 2009 and made two All Star appearances.
Even while he was hampered by a hand injury in the early part of 2013, though, Braun hit .298/.372/.498 in 61 games. In easily his worst MLB season, Braun's OPS was better than anything Cruz has put up in the last three years. Braun is just learning to play right field for the first time, and probably takes a step back defensively. But barring a franchise-altering event like another suspension, the 2011 NL MVP and five-time Silver Slugger Award winner is the clear choice here. Advantage: Brewers
The former Brewers actually may be wise to consider a platoon in center, with the left handed hitting Morgan starting against righties and the righty Cain serving as the fourth outfielder when he's not starting in center against lefties.
Both F-Brewers players are solid defenders and carry career OPS' around .700, and that might have been enough to compete with Gomez in this matchup until the last two seasons. Since Opening Day 2012, though, Gomez has appeared in 284 games and hit .273/.324/.487 with 43 home runs and 77 stolen bases in 90 attempts. He's one of just 61 players with 103 or more extra base hits over the last two seasons, and his defensive ability is night-and-day better than even these two good defenders. Advantage: Brewers
Corey Hart's knees may not allow him to patrol the outfield for a full season anymore, but he'd have to play out there to get into the lineup on a former Brewers team that already has Prince Fielder at first base.
Davis burst onto the scene with a hot finish to the 2013 season, but is far from a known commodity as an MLB player with just 153 career plate appearances. If Hart is healthy then he's probably a safe bet to outhit Davis, and Davis' throwing struggles may make the two a wash defensively. If Hart isn't healthy, Norichika Aoki would give the F-Brewers a pretty solid backup plan. Advantage: Former Brewers
So, looking across the matchups, here's where we stand:
Current Brewers have major advantages at catcher, second base, third base and center field and a likely advantage in right. Former Brewers have a major advantage at first base and smaller leads at shortstop and left field.
What do you think? Do you approve of the evaluation of these matchups?
My first run through the Milwaukee Brewers system gave me 38 names of interest, which frankly was more than I expected given the reputation of the organization at this time. There's a lot of Grade C here and I'd like to cut this down to 33 or 34.
