The Milwaukee Brewers have a lot in common with the team they're facing starting tonight at Coors Field. While the circumstances of how they got to that point are different, the Brew Crew and the Colorado Rockies share the distinction of massively underachieving thus far in the 2012 season. The Rockies have injuries and a poorly-constructed pitching staff mostly to blame, while the Brewers haven't been able to overcome the loss of Prince Fielder to free agency, and ended up trading their ace, Zack Greinke, at the deadline to ensure that they avoided losing another player without getting anything in return. They've also really regressed in one area in particular. Read on...
Sure, the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to help fill the massive void left by Fielder's departure, and he's actually done a pretty good job at doing so; Ramirez has posted an .860 OPS/126 OPS+ while leading the National League in extra-base hits with 54. However, they've seen a steep drop-off in production from Rickie Weeks, and the shortstops have been even worse than Yuniesky Betancourt was a year ago (granted, Alex Gonzalez was lost due to injury early in the season). Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who is hitting .331/.374/.549, missed a couple of months due to injury, so that didn't help matters either. With all of that being said, offense as a whole hasn't been their problem; the majority of their players are league-average or better in terms of OPS+, led by Ryan Braun's 152 OPS+ and 29 homers. Hell, not even their starting pitching has been the problem; yes, they dealt Greinke to the Angels, but they still have a host of good starters such as Yovani Gallardo (3.78 ERA/111 ERA+), Marco Estrada (4.36 ERA, 5.38 K/BB ratio), and Shawn Marcum before he got hurt (of course). And now, they have this guy:
Fiers has been magnificent in his rookie season, notching a strikeout per inning while maintaining a K/BB ratio of 5. He won't be this good forever, but he should be a serviceable starter going forward. He will be put to the test tonight in his first career appearance at Coors Field, although injuries have made the Rockies' lineup a shadow of its former self.
So, we've established that the Brewers' offense and starting pitching aren't the problem. So what is? Well, the bullpen has stunk it up, to be quite honest. Of every single relief pitcher to throw an inning for Milwaukee this year, only Kameron Loe (111) and Jim Henderson (130) have been better than average in terms of ERA+. The former has been the bullpen's anchor all year, while the latter has appeared in just nine games, though he's striking out almost 15 batters per nine innings. Notorious power arms such as John Axford, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Veras, and Manny Parra have all done a good job, as always, of striking people out, but walks have been a huge problem for those guys, while Axford and K-Rod have become unusually hittable, to boot. After converting 96% of his save opportunities a year ago, Axford has earned the save in just 68% of his chances in 2012. Yikes.
It should be a fun series to watch, particularly with the Brewers' high-octane bats. Once the Rockies get into Milwaukee's bullpen, expect even more fireworks to ensue. Bold prediction: the Rockies sweep the series 4-0 even though they only play three games. Boom.
Probable pitchers and more after the jump.
Monday at 6:40 p.m. MT (Root)
Mike Fiers (6-4, 1.80 ERA) vs. Jeff Francis (3-4, 6.06 ERA)
Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. MT (Root)
Randy Wolf (3-8, 5.46) vs. Tyler Chatwood (2-2, 5.06)
Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. MT (no TV)
Mark Rogers (0-1, 4.08) vs. TBA (Jhoulys Chacin?)