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So much for that closed door meeting: Marlins 6, Brewers 4

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There have been bad games before. Ones we thought could get any worse. The Brewers got deftly handled by the Marlins with Brad Penny on the mound. This. This was the worst game of the year.

Winning Pitcher: Brad Penny

Losing Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo

HR: Marcell Ozuna (20), Garrett Jones (14), Giancarlo Stanton (37)

Win Expectancy Chart

Boxscore

In his last start Yovani Gallardo tied Ben Sheets for the franchise strike out record. He would not get the record in the first inning. He would however give up a run. Christian Yelich singled, advanced to second on a fielder's choice, and then scored on a line drive off the bat of Casey McGehee (who would then be thrown out advancing to second to end the inning).

Tonight marked the first night back for Carlos Gomez who returned to the leadoff spot. He showed spectacular patience drawing a walk and sensational speed going all the way from first to home plate on a line drive double by Scooter Gennett to tie the game up immediately after going down a run early. A wild pitch would then send Gennett to third base. The Brewers would take a 2-1 lead on a ground out by Jonathan Lucroy. Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun would follow suit with back to back weak ground outs to end the inning.

Gallardo would immediately relinquish that lead by giving up back to back home runs to Marcell Ozuna and Garret Jones. Gallardo then struck out Jarrod Saltalamacchia to set a new franchise record. The Marlins still got to keep their one run lead so you'll forgive me if I didn't celebrate. Adeiny Hechavarria lined a single and advanced on a bunt by Penny. Christian Yelich would drive in the Marlins 4th run with his second line drive single of the night. Gallardo would finally induce a grounder to end the inning but the Marlins would walk away with a 4-2 lead after all of 1.5 innings.

Khris Davis would lead off the Brewers half of the second inning with a walk. Mark Reynolds would erase Davis with a double play. Jean Segura showed some signs of life with a line drive single after falling back 0-2 in the count. It wouldn't matter though as Gallardo grounded out to end the inning.

Yovani Gallardo would keep things rolling with a leadoff home run by Giancarlo Stanton. McGehee almost lined a double but Carlos Gomez was able to track it down for the first out. An error by Aramis Ramirez allowed Ozuna to reach. Gerret Jones drove in Ozuna with a line drive double. Ozuna advanced to third on a fly out but he'd stay put after Hechavarria grounded out to end the inning.

In the bottom of the third inning Brad Penny retired the side in order with 2 weakly hit fly outs and a weakly hit ground out.

Gallardo put the exclamation point on his horrible start when he gave up a line drive single to Brad Penny. A fielder's choice erased Penny and the second out followed with a fly out. Four straight balls to Stanton would put runners at first and second for Casey McGehee who would then load the bases with a walk of his own. Yovani Gallardo's night ended there. But hey, franchise record or something. Marco Estrada came in and retired Marcell Ozuna with a strike out to end the inning without the Marlins being able to add to their lead.

The Brewers didn't do a whole lot in the fourth inning. Aramis Ramirez drew a walk, but was erased when Ryan Braun grounded to the short stop yet again. Then Khris Davis capped things off by grounding into a double play. I remind you, Brad Penny was pitching.

In the top of the fifth Marco Estrada retired the Marlins in order.

In the bottom of the order Brad Penny retired the Brewers in order. B-R-A-D P-E-N-N-Y.

Marco Estrada retired the Marlins in order in the sixth as well. This inning was highlighted by a superb diving catchin lefty by Khris Davis.

The Brewers finally got another base runner. In the bottom of the sixth with one out, Gennett grounded up the middle for a single. Another single by Lucroy would put runners at first and second for Aramis Ramirez who very promptly grounded into an inning ending double play on the very first pitch from BRAD FREAKING PENNY.

Marco Estrada retired the first two batters in the top of the seventh (including issuing a strike out to Stanton) before allowing a single to Ozuna. It was the first base runner he allowed. He retired the next batter with a fly out.



In the bottom half of the seventh, Sam Dyson retired the Brewers in order.

With a pop out by Saltalamacchia for the first out in the eighth inning, Estrada matched Gallardo's innings total for this game. A fortunate liner to Mark Reynolds would result in an inning ending double play giving Estrada 4.1 IP on the night, with just 2 hits, no walks, and no runs. That was a good deal better than the 6 runs in 3.2 IP by Gallardo.

In a game where not a lot of good things happened, I took a lot of joy in watching Jean Segura draw a lead off walk in the bottom of the eighth inning off AJ Ramos. So maybe that's why it was so very disheartening when Gerardo Parra pinch hit for  Estrada only to ground into an out. Segura did advance however. Then Carlos Gomez uplifted my spirit again when he drove in Segura with a double up the left field line. Gennett would sky one for an out allowing Gomez to advance to third for Jonathan Lucroy who would drive him in by beating out an infield single. Bryan Morris took over and retired Aramis Ramirez on a grounder. It was close though. Lucroy actually beat out the throw to second, but Ramirez wasn't so lucky with the relay to first.

Jonathan Broxton took over in the ninth for the Brewers. He struck out Yelich, got Donovan Solano to ground out, and Stanton to fly out. It's been interesting to monitor Broxton's velocity in the few outings he's had as a Brewer.

In need of a miracle, the Brewers led off the inning with Ryan Braun who had yet to reach base. He struck out looking on 3 pitches. Khris Davis hit a ball that just happened to find Steve Chisek's glove. Seriously, normally it'd have gone into center for a single, but instead Chisek blindly grabbed behind his back and somehow got the ball. It was pretty brutal. Then Lyle Overbay grounded out on one pitch to end the game.

By the way, this game is the perfect example of how "leadership" or whatever you want to call it isn't a real thing. Or at the very least the impact is negligible. The Brewers just had their "Major League"-Turning Point-Montage-Players Only Meeting and look what happened. They got decimated by one of the worst starters going in baseball right now with a mediocre offense behind him.

The second game of the series starts at 7:10 pm CT tomorrow as Matt Garza faces Tom Koehler.

Other Notes:


  • Giants did not play today and so gain half a game.

  • Pirates won 6-4 over the Phillies, putting them 1.5 games up on the Brewers for the 2nd Wild Card spot.

  • The Braves lost their game to the Nationals by a score of 2-1. They'll remain tied with the Brewers


MLB Scores: Miami Marlins 6, Milwaukee Brewers 4

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The Miami Marlins rode three home runs, including Giancarlo Stanton's 154th career homer, to an eventual 6-4 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, as the team gained ground on against a critical Wild Card competitor.

The Miami Marlins picked up an important win over their Wild Card rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers, in tonight's contest, which is the first of a four-game series between the two teams. The Brewers once held the lead for the second Wild Card, but their tenuous hold slipped as they continued to fall in the standings. Meanwhile, the Marlins picked up another win and stayed pace with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who now own the lead.

Tonight's contest was a home run show, as the Fish launched three home runs. That included Giancarlo Stanton's 37th home run of the season, which also happened to be his 154th of his career, tying him for Dan Uggla's Marlins career record. Stanton's shot was the last of the three, and the Marlins got even more help early on. In the second inning, Marcell Ozuna and Garrett Jones hit back-to-back jacks to put the Fish up 3-2 early on. Later on in the second, Christian Yelich would single home Adeiny Hechavarria to make it 4-2. One inning later, Stanton led off the third with his solo home run and record-tying shot.

By the end of the third inning, Garrett Jones had doubled home another run to make it a 6-2 contest. It was a good day for Ozuna and Jones, both of whom had two hits and a homer to their names. They were two of four Marlins with two hits, as Hechavarria and Yelich also joined the party.

Meanwhile, Brad Penny had another ugly performance, but this time it did not lead to significant damage. He walked three batters and only struck out one in his six innings, but he and the Marlins held the Brewers to just two runs at the time. The Brewers did mount a comeback against A.J. Ramos, picking up two runs in the eighth inning. Steve Cishek shut the door in the ninth, however, with a strikeout of Ryan Braun and a nifty ground ball pickup for an easy 33rd save.


Source: FanGraphs

Attendance: 31,203
Hero of the Game: Garrett Jones (0.166 WPA)
Goat of the Game: A.J. Ramos (-0.072 WPA)
Play of the Game:Scooter Gennett doubled in the first inning. Carlos Gomez scored. (-0.127 WPA)

Minor league playoffs: Lookouts win, next stop is the Southern League Championship Series

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Lookouts hold on to 7-6 win Game 5 and defeat Stars in best-of-five series

Minor League Player of the Day (AA) - O'Koyea Dickson, 2 for 4, two runs, home run, three RBI. Dodgers 2011 12th round pick O'Koyea Dickson hit a 3-run homer to give the Lookouts a 7-2 lead that did held on to in this series finale.

AA – The Lookouts gave up two runs on an error as they fell behind the Stars (Brewers) in the second inning but then two runs in the fourth to take the lead and four runs in the fifth that provided just enough runs in the 7-6 clinching win to send the Lookouts to Southern League Championship series.  Nick Struck started the game and he saw the Stars score two runs on his double error which put the Stars ahead 2-0.

Chris O'Brien brought them back within one on his solo home run and in the fourth, O'Brien singled in Daniel Mayora and that tied the score at 2.

O'Brien eventually was thrown out at the plate but then Angel Sanchez singled in Dickson to give the Lookouts their first lead of the game.

The following inning saw Bobby Coyle double and Corey Seagersingled in Coyle.  The big blow followed a Chris O'Brien walk as Dickson hit a 3-run home run to make the score 7-2.

Jose Dominguez was sent to the Lookouts to get some more work in games and Monday night wasn't a memorable one as Dominguez faced three batters and gave up two hits and a walk.  All three batters would score.

Daniel Coulombe came into the game with one out in the seventh and he closed out the game and the series.

Coming up– Southern League Best-of-Five Championship Series begins on Wednesday, Chattanooga will host the Jacksonville Suns (Marlins) as Games 1 and 2 will be played in Chattanooga.

Minor League Transactions – (AAA) - Jose Dominguez assigned to Chattanooga Lookouts from Albuquerque Isotopes.  (AA) - Placed RHP Matt Shelton on the temporarily inactive list.

Chattanooga Lookouts Box Score (AA)

Minor League Central - Daily Dodger Recap

St. Louis Cardinals pennant race: Head-to-head success vs. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee key to Cards' healthy division lead

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The Cardinals' Central lead rests on a bedrock of success against their primary division competition.

There's a reason we so often hear about head-to-head match-ups during the home stretch of the pennant race. A team can pick up a full game with a three-game series win, and as many as three games with a three-game series sweep. In 2011, the Cardinalsswept the wild-card leading Atlanta Braves, turning a 7.5-game wild-card standings deficit into 4.5. And of course we all know how that September (and October) ended.

This brings us to last weekend's series in Milwaukee. The Cardinals (with their -2 run differential and all) led the then-second-place Brewers by three games when St. Louis arrived at Miller Park to start the four-game set. According to the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report at the time, the Cardinals stood an 81.3% chance of winning the Central, a 9.4% chance of earning a wild-card berth, and a 90.7% overall chance of qualifying for the postseason.

Despite the Cardinals' healthy division odds, the Brew Crew had a chance to make up series ground in the division race (if not overtake the Redbirds). Instead, the Cards took three of four from the Brewers and stiff-armed Milwaukee into third place, and a full five games back in the standings.

On Monday morning after defeating the Brewers, the Cardinals' odds at winning the division had shot up to 92.6% and their overall postseason chances are at 97.5%. Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus put the Brewers' odds of winning the Central at 2.7% (to the Pirates' 4.7%). Milwaukee stood a 29.4% chance of making the postseason on Monday morning, before losing to the Marlins.

The Cardinals and Brewers have three head-to-head games remaining. Pittsburgh and St. Louis don't play each other again. It's hard to see how either the Buccos or the Brew Crew can make up enough ground to catch the Cards in the Central with so few opportunities to take a big bite out of the division lead.

Head-to-head match-ups are important. They are one of the reasons the unbalanced schedule is so much fun. The Cardinals are currently 11-8 vs. Pittsburgh and 10-6 vs. Milwaukee. Other factors played a part in the Cardinals securing a healthy September lead in the standings, but their head-to-head performance against their primary division competition has been perhaps the largest.

What we learned: September 9, 2014

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Today's lessons are coming from you. What did you learn yesterday?

Good morning everyone. My internet was down for most of the night and just came back up, so it's not going to be a traditional WWL today. I'll provide a few notes, but I'm going to leave it to you to talk about what you learned yesterday. If you have any good links from the Brewers from the past day, leave them in the comments below and discuss them.

Some quick notes from yesterday:

What else did you learn? Leave your lessons in the comments below.

Introducing weighted isolated power (wISO)

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Weighted isolated power is a more precise way to measure the power contributions of a hitter.

If it is true that innovation stems from necessity, then consider the new and more precise version of Isolated Power that Steven and I now introduce to be the next in a long line of metrics created to fill a need within the statistical aspect of the game.

I have long been a fan of traditional Isolated Power, as it is an easy rate stat that measures a hitter’s power per se (i.e., isolates it), but this metric is somewhat imprecise. Traditional Isolated Power is computed in its simplest form as SLG-AVG, but can also be written as follows:

Traditional ISO = [(1x2B) + (2x3B) + (3xHR)] / AB

This formula considers only the extra base hits of a player (i.e., power) but uses overly simplistic constants. It seems unlikely that in practice, the difference between a home run and a single is exactly three times as much as the difference between a double and a single.

For this reason, Steven and I created wISO, a new metric that uses the wOBA linear weights instead of the integers found in the traditional ISO formula. As of the time of this publication, the 2014 wOBA linear weights are as follows:

2014 wOBA Linear Weights

w1B = .891

w2B = 1.281

w3B = 1.632

wHR = 2.129

Instead of simply inserting these numbers in the traditional formula, we scaled it to the traditional ISO model. To do this, we found the difference in wOBA linear weights between each extra base hit and a single and then divided the individual results of triples and home runs by the results of doubles. In numerical form, these calculations were as follows:

Weighted ratios = (wHR-w1B)/(w2B-w1B) and (w3B-w1B)/(w2B-w1B)

This gave us the following ratios between doubles, triples, and home runs. As the divisor in the equation, doubles are scaled as 1, hence the changes come in the weight for triples and home runs.

2B = 1

3B = 1.9

HR = 3.17

When entered into the equation, the working formula for 2014 wISO is as follows:

2014 wISO = [(1x2B) + (1.9x3B) + (3.17xHR)] / AB

The benefit of wISO is simple: this formula will value extra base contributions to the degree that they actually lead to scoring runs. Instead of having a home run count as three times as much as a double, the wOBA constants allow us to weight power contributions more accurately with the precise ratios found in game data over a season or multiple seasons.

In practice, wISO functions the same way as traditional ISO. Unsurprisingly, the 2014 and career wISO leaders, shown in the charts below, are largely the players that we would suspect.

PlayerAB2B3BHRwISO
Chris Carter446201360.305
Edwin Encarnacion403242300.305
Jose Abreu487322330.289
Nelson Cruz534251390.282
Giancarlo Stanton526301360.278
Mike Trout543376320.276
David Ortiz480250320.264
Victor Martinez496290300.250
Jose Bautista493250310.250
Paul Goldschmidt406391190.249

We considered only qualified batters for 2014; career leaders needed at least 2500 AB.

PlayerAB2B3BHRwISO
Babe Ruth83985061367140.354
Mark McGwire618725265830.335
Barry Bonds9847601777620.316
Ted Williams7706525715210.297
Hank Greenberg5193379713310.297
Lou Gehrig80015341634930.294
Jimmie Foxx81344581255340.287
Albert Pujols7310524154920.285
Jim Thome8422451266120.284
Ryan Howard4340220193110.282

One caveat to note is that wISO is almost always slightly higher than traditional ISO for two reasons. First, the .17 difference in home run ratio between wISO and traditional ISO is larger than the -.10 difference between triples ratio between the two formulas. Second, since home runs are much more frequent than triples, the positive difference in weight for home runs is actualized much more frequently than the negative difference in weight for triples. In 2014, the average player's wISO is 5 points higher than his ISO, so the difference is not drastic.

This means that home run hitters, such as the AstrosChris Carter, will see the biggest increase from traditional ISO to wISO, while players specializing in triples, such as the Dodgers' Dee Gordon, will see their wISO slip, at least relative to the rest of the league. Doubles hitters, such as the Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy, will see less of a difference between their ISO and wISO, as the constant for doubles is the same in both formulas.

With that in mind, the chart below shows the players with the largest positive difference between wISO and traditional ISO. It comes as no surprise that all of the players on this list hit lots of home runs and very few triples (and consequently overlap a lot with the wISO leaders).

PlayerAB2B3BHRwISODifference
Chris Carter446201360.3050.0143
Edwin Encarnacion403242300.3050.0123
Nelson Cruz534251390.2820.0122
Giancarlo Stanton526301360.2780.0119
David Ortiz480250320.2640.0117
Jose Abreu487322330.2890.0116
Jose Bautista493250310.2500.0113
Victor Martinez496290300.2500.0105
Lucas Duda448220270.2400.0104
Anthony Rizzo486231300.2470.0102

Contrarily, the chart below shows the players with the largest negative difference between wISO and traditional ISO (and the smallest positive differences to fill in the table). Unsurprisingly, all of the players on this list hit very few home runs and lots of triples.

PlayerAB2B3BHRwISODifference
Dee Gordon543201220.091-0.0014
Adeiny Hechavarria464181010.087-0.0014
Adam Eaton41923810.099-0.0013
Ben Revere51712720.061-0.0008
Alcides Escobar49730520.092-0.0007
Norichika Aoki41518410.069-0.0007
Alex Rios49230840.118-0.0003
Denard Span54836740.1130.0001
Zack Cozart45417430.0750.0002
Jean Segura46112640.0780.0003

The slight bias toward having a higher wISO is enough that only seven qualified hitters have a lower wISO in 2014, and with the best mark being Alex Rios's 0.118, they aren't exactly a bunch of sluggers, either.

One final technical note: dealing with data over multiple years with varied wOBA linear weights requires an additional step. To find, for example, Mike Trout’s career wISO, one must first take the wISO for each individual season using the wOBA constants for each respective season, multiply by seasonal AB, add all of the seasons together, and finally divide by total at bats during that span.

In numerical form, this calculation appears as follows:

Trout career wISO = [(2011 wISO x 2011 AB) + (2012 wISO x 2012 AB) + (2013 wISO x 2013 AB) + (2014 wISO x 2014 AB)] / Total ABs from 2011 through 2014

This seems a lot messier than it actually is, but due to the nature of the wOBA constants, it is necessary to use the proper constant for each respective season. A home run in the steroid era has a different value than a home run in the pitcher-friendly era of the mid-1960’s (or even today), so it is imperative to use the proper league constants.

The difference between wISO and traditional ISO is not extremely large. The 2014 wOBA-based constant for triples used in the wISO formula is only five percent less than the constant used in the traditional ISO formula, while the 2014 wISO constant for home runs is just 5.6 percent greater than the traditional constant. That’s not drastically different and does not render traditional ISO useless, but why should we choose to accept a lack of precision when a more precise measure is readily available?

wISO isn’t going to overhaul the way we look at power hitters. It’s not going to lead to any recalibrations of the way that power is valued within the game. It is still obvious that Giancarlo Stanton is a good power hitter and Ben Revere is not, but wISO is slightly better at telling us the exact difference between these two players. The constants are no longer arbitrary; rather, they value each event based on its contribution to actual runs being scored, making this a more useful, more precise way to measure the isolated power of players.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Sean Lahman's baseball database.

Steven Silverman and Dan Weigel are Featured Writers at Beyond the Box Score. You can follow Steven on Twitter at @Silver_Stats and Dan at @DanWiggles38.

It's time to bench Ryan Braun

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This isn't about complaining. This isn't about punishment. This is about winning. Ryan Braun has got to sit.

The Brewers are mired in the worst slump of the season and it's team wide. The pitching has been bad, the defense has been bad, and the hitting has been bad. One little change isn't going to fix everything, but you have to start somewhere. Now that Carlos Gomez is back I'd start by benching Ryan Braun.

It's no secret Braun has been dealing with a thumb injury all season. He's going to be dealing with it for his entire career too, but we can't worry about that now. At present, there is a simple solution that provides three potential benefits. I'm talking about playing Gerardo Parra instead of Braun.

The first benefit is inarguable. Having Parra in right field instead of Braun is a defensive boon. In his career Braun went from a historically bad third baseman, to a bad left fielder, then over time to a solid left fielder, and now in his first year at it a below average right fielder. Parra is a former gold glove winner. He has better range, speed, and the strongest throwing arm in the outfield.

The second benefit is less certain. Having Parra in the lineup instead of Braun could be an offensive boon. Take a look at this:

Ryan BraunGerardo Parra
Season508 PA: 273/323/471, 118 wRC+521 PA: 264/310/374, 86 wRC+
2nd Half186 PA: 230/280/397, 86 wRC+122 PA: 301/339/442, 116 wRC+
Last 30 Days.98 PA: 234/265/372, 74 wRC+64 PA: 311/344/443, 118 wRC+

If we were looking at two healthy players, I might argue that Ryan Braun should play because he offers the higher ceiling. But as we know he's not healthy. We're dealing with a bit of a sample size issue, but Parra has been better offensively than Braun and for a long time. Right now, it's hard to be worse than Braun has been so I'd chance it with Parra and not give it a second thought.

The final benefit is theoretical. As I've mentioned several times, Ryan Braun's performance is being killed by the nerve issue in his thumb. It's not going to go away, but resting it has seemed to help in the past. If Braun were to sit for a week or more, perhaps he'd be able to bounce back again. Perhaps, he'd be able to be himself for 15 games in the postseason. Or maybe resting him wouldn't help at all. With this we're just guessing and hoping.

Time is running out. The Brewers are a game and a half back of the second Wild Card with 18 games left to play. For the reasons stated up, I'm not convinced Ryan Braun should play a single one of them if they want to make the playoffs. Gerardo Parra has at least earned a shot at it and if things go well, we could get the Ryan Braun of old just in time for the most important part of the year: The playoffs.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

Jimmy Nelson moved to bullpen

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One of the starters had to go to the bullpen sooner or later. Jimmy Nelson appears to be choice.

The Brewers have been using a six man rotation since Matt Garza returned, but they were always going to switch back to the traditional five man rotation. It appears for now the winner is Mike Fiers. Andrew Gruman tweeted that Jimmy Nelson is being moved to the bullpen. Since he made a start recently it'll take a few more days of rest before he's ready to pitch again.

It's not really surprising that Nelson is the one moving to the pen. The two options were he or Mike Fiers. Over the last 30 days Nelson has pitched 33.2 inning with a 4.54 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 4.01 xFIP. He's had a 16.8 K%, 6.0 BB%, .307 BAA, and a 1.51 WHIP. Oof.

Over that same time period Fiers has also pitched 33.2 inning with a 2.14 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 2.60 xFIP. He's had a 32.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, .174 BAA, and a 0.80. Yowzers! I knew he was really kicking ass, but to see those numbers really puts it in perspective. Fiers had been a true ace for a month (but let's not expect that to last forever).

So yeah, it probably wasn't a very hard decision for the Brewers to make. I'll be interested to see how Jimmy Nelson is used out of the pen. If he's limited to single inning outings he could really ramp up his already impressive fastball. The test is going to be pitching in back to back days. Also, it'll be interesting to see how quickly he can warm up to pitch. Marco Estrada takes a long time and if Nelson does too that could inhibit his overall effectiveness. We'll might learn some of these answers on Thursday when Nelson is first able to pitch again.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs


Brewers 3, Marlins 6: LOL

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It was a cartoonishly bad baseball game for a team in a outrageous slump that is somehow just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot.

W: Morris, 8-1

L: Rodriguez, 4-5

S: Cishek, 34

HR: McGehee (4), Ozuna (21)

Fangraphs WPA Box Score (87% in the 8th, LOL)

You could hardly write a script for a collapse game that was more fitting than this ballgame tonight. The Brewers battled back to a tie in the 7th and then loaded the bases with nobody out in the bottom of the 8th, looking to break out of a 3 week slump that has threatened to ruin the season. They failed to score and then blew the game in the top of the 9th (to Casey McGehee no less), losing their 16th game in their past 19 tries.

The Brewers went down early tonight by giving up 2 runs in the top of the 3rd but got them right back in the bottom half. Scooter Gennett and Jonathan Lucroy hit back-to-back 1 out singles and Aramis Ramirez drove the first run in with a double to left-center. Next, Lucroy managed to score on a weak infield groundout by Gerardo Parra, who started in place of the injured Braun.

Matt Garza had a weird start tonight. He only went 4 innings due to a high pitch count in his second start back from an injury, but struck out 7 while giving up 6 hits. Only 1 run was earned, but the error was on Garza anyways (yet another of his awful throws from the mound). Mark Reynolds pinch hit for him in a failed rally in the bottom of the 4th. Jeremy Jeffress came on and cruised through the 5th, including a strikeout of Giancarlo Stanton, but gave up a run in the 6th on an RBI Garrett Jones double.

Will Smith tried to hold the Marlins to 3 in the 7th but gave up a lead off baserunner on a ground ball to first base. The umps initially called Christian Yelich out at first, but replay revealed that Yelich beat Lyle Overbay to the bag. Smith then got a strikeout and turned the ball over to Brandon Kintzler, who struck out Stanton. With 2 outs, however, Casey McGehee singled and Kintzler couldn't get Marcell Ozuna to chase a slider out of the zone on a full count. Zach Duke came on to face Garrett Jones, who was pulled for veteran righty Jeff Baker. Zach Duke struck him out, giving the Brewers a rare 3 pitcher, 3 strikeout inning.

In the bottom half of the 7th Scooter Gennett dumped a 1-out double down the left field line. Lucroy struck out on a hittable splitter, but Aramis Ramirez knocked a 2-out RBI single up the middle to tie the game at 3 for his second RBI of the game and second RBI of September.

Jonathan Broxton pitched a clean 8th, capped off by an impressive diving, spinning play by Jean Segura (2-2, BB) to throw out Jordany Valdespin. Khris Davis kept building the momentum with a leadoff hit against reliever Brian Morris to lead off the bottom of the 8th. Lyle Overbay followed that up with a walk, and Segura placed a perfect bunt down the left side in a clear sacrifice attempt and reached on an error (he may have beat it out regardless).

With the bases loaded and no one out, Rickie Weeks chopped a 1-1 pitch towards Casey McGehee. The Marlins third basemen easily shoveled it home to get out Davis, who had broken back to 3rd base on the swing. Hector Gomez came on to pinch run for Lyle Overbay at 3rd base. Gomez sent the first pitch foul to right, then swung and missed, and with 2 strikes hacked another ground ball right to McGehee who came home to force out the other Gomez. Gennett flew out on the first pitch to right. During the at-bat, Bill Schroeder summed up the situation well by saying, "Need [Morris] to throw one to the backstop here."

K-Rod got 2 outs on 6 pitches in the 9th but then walked Giancarlo Stanton. Then Casey McGehee did something he has done 3 other times in 610 plate appearances-- he hit a home run. For an encore, Rodriguez gave up another 2-out homer to Marcell Ozuna.

To the soundtrack of an empty Miller Park except for one very loud fan just tearing into the staff and players that could be heard through the TV microphone, the Brewers put on 2 runners but the rally fizzled and Steve Cishek closed out a 6-3 victory for the Marlins. The Brewers fall to 74-71 and are back in action again tomorrow night at 7:00 PM at Miller Park.

MLB Scores: Miami Marlins 6, Milwaukee Brewers 3

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The Miami Marlins toped the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 on Tuesday night. Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich had solid offensive nights for the Marlins.

Looking to remain relevant, the Marlins topped the Brewers 6-3 on Tuesday night.

Miami was able to add a pair against Brewers starter Matt Garza in the top of the third. Christian Yelich singled and stole second base to open the frame before Donovan Solano's RBI single to right field gave the Marlins a one run lead. With two outs, Casey McGehee singled and reached second on a Garza throwing error before a Marcell Ozuna single made it a 2-0 contest.

The Marlins couldn't hold onto the lead, as Tom Koehler allowed two runs in the bottom of the frame. Scooter Gennett and Jonathan Lucroy singled with one out before an Aramis Ramirez double and Gerardo Parra ground ball tied the game at two.

After Garza was taken out of the game, Miami regained the lead in the sixth against Jeremy Jeffress. Ozuna walked with one out and came around to score on a Garrett Jones double in the left center field gap.

Tom Koehler was pulled after five innings during which he allowed two runs and struck out three.

Casey McGehee and Marcell Ozuna ninth inning home runs extended the Marlins' lead in the ninth, and Mike Dunn, Bryan Morris, and Steve Cishek all pitched well out of the bullpen.


Source: FanGraphs

Attendance: 29,590

Hero of The Game: Casey McGehee (+.435 WPA)

Goat of The Game: Chris Hatcher (-.106 WPA)

Play of The Game: Garrett Jones doubled in the sixth, allowing Marcell Ozuna to score. (+.186 WPA)

What we learned: September 10, 2014

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Today's lessons look at the dark and light sides of the losing streak.

Yesterday's Results

Marlins 6, Brewers 3

Good news: It wasn't the starting pitcher that blew it tonight. Matt Garza did have a rough game, allowing two runs on six hits and a walk with seven strikeouts. However, he kept the team in it. The Marlins took a 2-0 lead in the top of the third, but the Brewers tied it right back up in the bottom of the third. Marlins took another lead in the top of the sixth, but the Brewers tied it again in the bottom of the seventh. It looked like the Brewers were going to break through with the bases loaded in the eighth with no one out, but two straight outs at home and a fly ball ended the threat, and Francisco Rodriguez imploded in the ninth to give the Marlins a 6-3 win.

Cram Session

From BCB

The Darker Side of the Losing Streak

The Lighter Side of the Losing Streak

Other Notes

Minor League Update

  • Jimmy Nelson was named as the organization's minor league pitcher of the year, while Clint Coulter received player of the year honors. Adam McCalvy has more details on both honors.

Division Update

TeamWLGB
Cardinals8065-
Pirates75694.5
Brewers74716
Reds687712
Cubs648116

Today's Division Games

  • Cardinals (John Lackey) @ Reds (Alfredo Simon) - 6:10 pm
  • Pirates (Vance Worley) @ Phillies (Jerome Williams) - 6:05 pm
  • Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) @ Blue Jays (Drew Hutchinson) - 6:07 pm

Today's Action

It's the same story today as it has been the last several days. The Brewers try to end their losing streak and get something positive going tonight against the Marlins. Jarred Cosart pitches for the Marlins, and Wily Peralta is up for the Brewers. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Maria Torres of MLB.com has the preview.

Who is Texas Rangers rookie Guilder Rodriguez?

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No matter how much you study prospects, every year someone will get called up that you never heard of. For me this year, that player is Guilder Rodriguez, promoted to the major leagues by the Texas Rangers for September.

When that came across the transaction wire, no memories were triggered. A quick internet search revealed that Rodriguez is a 31-year-old from Venezuela who has been playing in the Rangers system since 2009 and has originally been signed by the Brewers in 2001. He hit .269/.347/.298 in 81 games for Double-A Frisco this year, has a similar career Triple-A line of .263/.351/.283, and an overall minor league mark of .256/.337/.284 in 1095 games.

He's been around a long time. I've seen quite a few Texas League and Pacific Coast League games over the years in which Rodriguez was certainly playing, for Oklahoma City or Round Rock or Frisco. So I went back and searched my old scouting notes for any impressions or information nuggets.

There was nothing. Damn frustrating.

So what do we know?

Rodriguez plays multiple positions, and the Rangers obviously think enough of him to keep him in the farm system for so long and to give him a cup-of-coffee in the majors. He has no power at all: two career home runs in over 4,000 plate appearances. But he can run some and he can bunt and he'll draw a few walks. He will do anything you ask him to do, and he loves the game.

Over at Lone Star Ball, a writer named Tepid Participation contributes these observations:

And now you're watching to see Guilder. (pronounced "WHEEL-dair") No active player in minor league baseball has played more games without seeing a single minute on a big league roster than Guilder. He's a utility man's utility man. He's played every position except catcher. He's pitched in 5 games. He's shown up and busted his ass every day for 13 seasons. . .There isn't an odometer in the world that can touch the number of miles Guilder has logged on a bus, usually in the middle of the night. 13 seasons. He's now a husband and a father to two little girls, and that's just a portion of what drives him. . . Guilder has never hidden his desire to go into coaching. He'll have no shortage of offers once his achy knees finally give out. He even threw batting practice in Frisco last week.  Coaching might be where Guilder has been most important over the last few years.

He's a smart guy too. . .The mental transition he made a couple years ago to be a mentor while still helping the team win games is rare, and it is awesome. Roogie and Sardi might not be big leaguers right now were it not for G-Rod. Martin Perez learned how to absorb the wicked bounces and ups and downs of the game from G-Rod. Jurickson Profar was at the park last week chewing Guilder's ear about, well, stuff. Pat Cantwell and Jake Skole both recently told me, they make sure to look at G-Rod when setting up the infield and outfield defenses. He's been a coaching player for a few years now, and he's been a leader, and he's been a mentor, and a big brother.

Guilder deserves this.

Indeed he does.

They've Clarified MLB Rule 7.13... We Hope

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That's the catcher-blocking-the-plate rule, which has caused all sorts of controversy this year.

Major League Baseball's Rule 7.13 was changed at the start of the 2014 season to help avoid the catcher collisions that were thought to lead to more concussions, as well as the horrifying injury to Giants catcher Buster Posey a couple of years ago, thus its tag "The Buster Posey Rule."

Here's how the rule read to start this year, when it was dubbed "experimental":

A runner attempting to score may not deviate from his direct pathway to the plate in order to initiate contact with the catcher (or other player covering home plate). If, in the judgment of the Umpire, a runner attempting to score initiates contact with the catcher (or other player covering home plate) in such a manner, the Umpire shall declare the runner out (even if the player covering home plate loses possession of the ball).

That link says the rule was designed to avoid the "most egregious collisions." In practice, umpires were calling it, or changing calls on review, if a catcher got his foot anywhere near the runner's "lane," which wasn't defined in the rule and is a pretty vague concept.

This led to MLB having to "clarify" this rule, which in reality means: "We'd better change this before a playoff game gets decided on a bad ruling via this rule." ESPN.com's Jayson Stark explains the memo sent to clubs by MLB executive vice-president Joe Torre:

Primarily, the clarification was to send a reminder to umpires that while the intent of the rule was to protect catchers from violent home-plate collisions, the wording was not intended to be interpreted so strictly that it would allow runners to be called safe on a technicality if the throw had beaten them to the plate by a substantial margin.

In his memorandum, Torre described this portion of Rule 7:13 as a "judgment call." However, the judgment, he said, goes beyond establishing whether the catcher is "blocking the plate without the ball (or when not in the act of fielding the ball)."

Even if the umpire or replay official decides that the catcher has blocked the plate improperly, Torre said, he must also determine whether that catcher "hindered or impeded the progress of the runner attempting to score."

And the memorandum specifically instructs umpires and replay officials not to find a "violation" of the rule by the catcher "unless the catcher's position hindered or impeded the runner from scoring prior to the tag."

Torre goes on to remind umpires that even before the season, MLB's original instructions dictated that in situations where a runner was clearly out by a wide margin, "if the runner would have been called out notwithstanding the catcher's improper positioning in front of the plate, the out call will stand."

Essentially, it appears what umpires were doing in many cases was calling runners safe if a catcher had his foot anywhere near the runner's lane, even if the ball had clearly beaten the runner to the plate. That's certainly not the intent of the rule -- the rule was put in place to try to protect the catcher from collisions, not to allow runners to score at will.

The photo above is from the Cubs/Brewers game August 11, which is a good example of what they're trying to clarify here. Ryan Braun was thrown out at the plate by Starlin Castro on a relay throw from Arismendy Alcantara. Welington Castillo got the ball in plenty of time and was in proper position, yet the play was ordered reviewed by the crew chief because of a possible 7.13 violation. The call was eventually confirmed; you can watch the whole play here:

You can clearly see that even though the throw was a bit offline, Braun had a "lane" and Castillo still tagged him out, with no rule violation.

It's a good thing that MLB has issued this clarification. It's a good thing to not have catchers or runners injured or have concussions; nevertheless, the intent of the rule wasn't to say that runners get a clear shot at scoring with the catcher having to pretty much stand by and watch, which some of the plays that were overturned implied. They're still going to have to tweak this rule after the season is over.

But they managed to get this "clarification" done with little fuss, no official announcement and before the postseason began. Imagine that.

Brewers send pair of minor league pitchers to the Reds to complete Broxton deal

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It's been a couple of weeks since the Brewers acquired Jonathan Broxton and the details are finally made public.

At the end of the waiver trade deadline the Brewers surprised a lot of people, myself included, when they announced they had acquired Jonathan Broxton from the Reds for two players to be named later. The identity of those two players has finally been decided and revealed. The Brewers are sending right-handed pitchers Kevin Shackelford and Barrett Astin to Cincinnati.

Kevin Shackelford is the second member of the 2013 Brewers Arizona Fall League participants to be traded this year, the other being Mitchell Haniger in the Gerardo Parra deal. Shackelford was drafted in the 21st round of the 2010 draft and has spent his entire minor league career as a reliever. He split last year between A+ and AA before being sent to the AFL. He also split this year between A+ and AA. He's never had very good strike out numbers nor was his year to year BAA impressive. The fact that he's spent 5 years in the minors, as a reliever, and never reached AAA suggests the Brewers didn't think too highly of him. It's possible with more time he could be a major league reliever. Now that he's with a new organization he just might get that chance.

Barrett Astin was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He spent last year in rookie ball and this year in low A ball. He's spent time as a reliever and a starter to limited success, but it's far too early in his career to rule him out of any role at the major league level. If he does realize his full potential as a major league starter, it's likely it would be at the back end of a rotation.

This being an in-division trade one thing you worry about is a player hurting you in the future. Neither prospect was on MLB.com's Brewers Top 20 prospect list. One could even make the argument that Kevin Shackelford is more a non-prospect than anything at this point in his career. It's probably a good bet neither player will come back to haunt the Brewers.

In my opinion this constitutes a complete salary dump by the Reds. Jonathan Broxton is owed $9 million dollars next year with an option for 2016 so it's not a minor salary dump. Still, this has to be considered another win for GM Doug Melvin. He got a solid reliever for essentially nothing.

Draft information courtesy of Fangraphs

Reds acquire Kevin Shackelford, Barrett Astin from Brewers to complete Jonathan Broxton trade

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The two pitchers head to Cincinnati to complete the Broxton trade.

The Reds have acquired right-handed pitchers Kevin Shackelford and Barrett Astin from the Brewers as the players to be named later in last month's Jonathan Broxton trade, according to a team announcement. Today's move completes the deal that sent Broxton to Milwaukee on August 31.

Shackelford, 25, was the Brewers' 21st round pick in the 2010 draft and spent the year split between High-A Brevard County and Double-A Huntsville. He posted a 2-4 record and 3.69 ERA in 70.2 relief innings between the two stops, lowering his career ERA to 3.97 in five minor league seasons. He was ranked as the Brewers' 21st best prospect headed into the season, but cleared outright waivers in July and was outrighted to Double-A.

Astin, 22, spent the season with Single-A Wisconsin, posting an 8-7 record and 4.96 ERA in 27 games (18 starts). He was ranked as the organization's 22nd best prospect after being drafted in the third round of the 2013 draft, but has seen his stock fall due to struggles over his first two professional seasons.

For the Reds, the Broxton trade was more about clearing salary than anything else, meaning that the prospects they got back were not expected to be highly-touted. In addition to Shackelford and Astin, the Reds received more than $12 million in salary relief by sending Broxton to a division rival with a year remaining on his contract.


Brewers 4, Marlins 1: A Therapeutic Win

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Matt Clark hit his first major league home run, and Wily Peralta and Jonathan Broxton delivered on the mound to keep the Brewers in the hunt.

W: Peralta, 16-10

L: Cosart, 13-9

HR: Clark (1), Ozuna (21)

Fangraphs WPA Box

MLB Box

It can't be stressed enough how badly the Brewers needed this one tonight. It was a solid effort all around, from a great pitching performance across starter and bullpen, and enough timely hitting to bring home a W. But make no mistake, this what Matt Clark's night. The current 3rd string third baseman was given a start to see if he could provide a spark, and it worked-- he drove in 2 runs and the Brewers were able to win it 4-1.

In the first, Aramis Ramirez sent a base hit to left that nearly scored Jonathan Lucroy. Christian Yelich made a good throw home from left and Lucroy was called out. Replay seemed to show that Lucroy got a foot in before the tag, but the umpires held up the call. The Brewers scored runs in the 3rd and 4th on sacrifice flies by starting pitcher Wily Peralta and starting 1st baseman and September callup Matt Clark, respectively.

Peralta cruised through 6, only giving up 2 hits. He ran into trouble in the 7th while running up against 100 pitches. Marcell Ozuna led off the inning with his 22nd home run of the year, and then he allowed back-to-back 1 out singles. Peralta got the 2nd out on a flyout to center and was removed in favor of Zach Duke. Duke walked lefty Christian Yelich, and Roenicke made a desparation move to bring in Jonathan Broxton with the bases loaded and 2 out. Broxton induced a flyout to right to escape the inning.

In the bottom of the 7th, Clark hit his first big league home run just over the outstretched glove of Giancarlo Stanton to give the Brewers a much-needed cushion. They added a 4th run when Jean Segura reached on an error and eventually scored on a swinging bunt by Carlos Gomez. Broxton completed his night of work by working a perfect 8th, mowing down Stanton, McGehee, and Ozuna.

K-Rod returned to the scene of the crime in his first save opportunity since the blown save in San Diego that started this awful stretch. Two flyouts two deep-ish left center, a base hit to left, and a groundout later, it was all over. According to Davey Nelson on the postgame show, "Maybe, just maybe, the worm has turned," which is apparently an expression that means something weak finally taking control of the situation. The Brewers stay 1.5 back and play at Miller Park again tomorrow night at 7:10.

MLB Scores: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Miami Marlins 1

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The Miami Marlins fell to the Brewers 4-1 on Wednesday night. Jarred Cosart pitched well but the Marlins couldn't rally late.

Miami was looking to get back to five hundred on Wednesday night, but instead dropped to two games below it after falling to the Brewers 4-1 in game three of the four game series.

Milwaukee first got on the board against Jarred Cosart in the bottom of the third. An Adeiny Hechavarria two base throwing error put Jean Segura in scoring position with nobody out, and Segura third on an appeal to first base before scoring on a Wily Peralta sacrifice fly.

The Brewers loaded the bases with one out in the fourth, and a Matt Clark sacrifice fly made it a 2-0 contest.

Wily Peralta was solid for most of the night, but a Marcell Ozuna seventh inning home run cut the Brewers' lead in half.

Cosart was pulled after six innings during which he allowed two runs and striking out seven.

Clark homered against Sam Dyson in the seventh, and Dyson allowed a Carlos Gomez RBI single to give the Brewers a 4-1 advantage.

Miami got a break in the first, when Christian Yelich threw out Jonathan Lucroy looking to score from second on an Aramis Ramirez single. The play was reviewed, and the call on the field stood despite the fact that Jarred Cosart was so confdient Lucroy was safe he resumed warmup tosses until the call was made.

Dan Jennings and Carter Capps pitched well in relief.


Source: FanGraphs

Attendance: 25,219

Hero of The Game: Marcell Ozuna (+.066 WPA)

Goat of The Game: Sam Dyson (-.151 WPA)

Play of The Game: Marcell Ozuna homered in the seventh against Wily Peralta. (+.124 WPA)

Revisiting Chris Young's only complete game to date

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Former Padres starter Chris Young has done his best phoenix impression this season, posting a 12-7 record and 3.35 ERA with Seattle after over a year away from the majors. It's also his first season without missing time to injury since his All-Star season of 2007. Around the time I was looking at those numbers on his Baseball Reference page, I noticed another number that was surprising to me. The number was one, and it was in his career stats line in the CG column. Since he seemingly had 82 near-no-hitters, I figured he would have finished a few of them. As is the case with so many other things, I was wrong.

Young's lone complete game came during his Padres days, back in 2008. As you may recall, 2008 was a disappointing season for the Padres as a whole and for Young personally. By the time September 7 rolled around, the team was buried in the cellar with a 54-88 record, and Young was 4-5 with a 4.91 ERA and making just his fifteenth start, having already spent two stretches on the disabled list. Young and a young Padres lineup were tasked with taking on an 82-60 Brewers team in Milwaukee.

Rookie Brewers starter Manny Parra, who entered the game with a 10-6 record and a 4.10 ERA, retired the first three Padres batters with 11 pitches. Unfazed, Young promptly took down the top of the Brewers' order with just nine. San Diego got their first baserunner in the second inning on a single by rookie catcher Nick Hundley, but Milwaukee had no such luck.

After retiring the heart of the Brewers' order in the second, Young had no time to rest. He came to bat second in the top of the third inning and lined a 1-1 pitch to deep right-center for a one-out double. Young held tight at second base as Matt Antonelli reached on an error by shortstop J.J. Hardy, then moved to third as a walk by Chip Ambres loaded the bases. Young came home with the game's first run, followed by Antonelli with the second as the Brewers committed their second error of the inning. Singles by Adrian Gonzalez and Will Venable, who was just one week removed from his major league debut, gave the Padres a 5-0 lead. After flying out for the third out in his second at-bat of the frame, Young headed back to the hill.

Despite all that time on the bases and on the bench watching his teammates give him run support, Young didn't miss a beat. He retired the side in the bottom of the third, striking out his first two batters of the game. The two teams both went down 1-2-3 in the fourth, then rookie left fielder Chase Headley tacked on some insurance in the fifth with his ninth home run of the year. Milwaukee went down in order in the bottom of the frame, and again in a sixth inning which was uneventful for both teams.

Kevin Kouzmanoff ensured the seventh inning wouldn't be uneventful when he drove David Riske's second pitch deep to left for his twenty-first homer of the season. Following hits by Gonzalez and Headley, Nick Hundley lifted a sac fly to left fielder Ryan Braun for the Padres' seventh run. Following a walk to Will Venable, Sean Kazmar drove Headley home with a double, the only extra-base hit of his career. Young then hit a sac fly of his own for his first RBI of the season and San Diego's tenth run of the game.

The bottom of the seventh inning went down like the bottom of every other inning to that point, with the Brewers heading back to the home dugout in order. Milwaukee reliever Mark DiFelice made quick work of the Padres in the top of the eighth, and Young picked up right where he left off. He got Prince Fielder to pop up on the first pitch, and Corey Hart to do the same on the second. Gabe Kapler stepped in, took a ball, and found the second pitch more to his liking. He hit it hard and hit it deep...

Goodbye, perfect game.

Goodbye, no-hitter.

Goodbye, shutout.

But not 'Goodbye, complete game'! Young shook it off and got Bill Hall to line softly back to him for the third out of the inning. Having thrown just 81 pitches through eight complete innings, Young went back out for the ninth for just the second time in 114 starts to date (the first was when Joe Randa, then with Pittsburgh, ended Young's September 22, 2006 no-hit bid with a one-out homer in the top of the ninth). Young retired pinch-hitter Tony Gwynn, Jr. for the first out of the ninth before surrendering a double to another pinch-hitter, Mat Gamel. He left Gamel stranded at second as he recorded his fourth and fifth strikeouts of the game to tie a bow on his first and, so far, only complete game. Young finished his day with two hits, no walks, and a run on 96 pitches, 66 of which were good for strikes.

In the six years since that 10-1 blowout, Young has yet to again take the mound during the ninth inning of a game. In fact, he has lasted longer than seven innings only once, when he allowed just three hits and a run over eight complete innings this May 10 against Kansas City, throwing 60 of his 93 pitches for strikes on his way to his third win of the season.

The St. Louis Cardinals' magic number and how they might reach it

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It's the home stretch of the pennant race, which means talk of magical numbers.

The St. Louis Cardinals lost last night to the Cincinnati Reds. The Pittsburgh Pirates bested the Philadelphia Phillies. The Milwaukee Brewers topped the Miami Marlins. And so the National League Central standings look like this entering play this Thursday, September 11, 2014:

Place

Team

Wins

Losses

Pct.

Run Diff.

GB

1

Cardinals

80

66

.548

+3

-

2

Pirates

76

69

.524

+25

3.5

3

Brewers

75

71

.514

-6

5.0

4

Reds

69

77

.473

-8

11.0

5

Cubs

64

82

.438

-81

16.0

The Cards have 16 games left in the 2014 regular season. The Pirates have 17; the Brew Crew, 16. With so few games remaining, the 2014 regular season's finish line is in sight. And the mathematical eligibility for the postseason has taken its place on center stage. This is most commonly referred to as a first-place team's "magic number" or a non-first-place team's "elimination number."

A team's magic number is calculated by adding one to the total number of regular season games and then subtracting from that the first-place team's win total and the second- (or third-) place team's loss total.

There are 162 games in the MLB regular season. The Cards are 80-66. The Pirates are 76-69. So the Cardinals' magic number in regards to Pittsburgh is calculated by taking 163 -  80 - 69, which equals: 14.

The Brewers are 75-71. To calculate the Cards' magic number relating to Milwaukee, the formula is 163 - 80 - 71, which comes out to: 12.

What are the combinations of Cardinals wins and Pirates or Brewers losses that will result in St. Louis winning the division? The following chart shows how many the games the Cardinals must win, in combination with Brewers and Pirates loss totals, in order to secure a second consecutive division crown.

Cardinals

Pirates

Brewers

16-0

-

-

15-1

-

-

14-2

-

-

13-3

16-1

-

12-4

15-2

-

11-5

14-3

15-1

10-6

13-4

14-2

9-7

12-5

13-3

8-8

11-6

12-4

7-9

10-7

11-5

6-10

9-8

10-6

5-11

8-9

9-7

4-12

7-10

8-8

3-13

6-11

7-9

2-14

5-12

6-10

1-15

4-13

5-11

0-16

3-14

4-12

Even with a lead in the standings of just 3.5 games over the Pirates, the Cardinals still have a decided advantage with so few games left on the schedule. Especially when the 16 games remaining consist of one game at Cincinnati, three each against the Rockies (in St. Louis), Diamondbacks (away), and Cubs (away), and three at home against the Reds and Brewers. The Cardinals are sitting pretty, but it nonetheless sure feels like the final 16 games will be every bit the slog that the first 146 have been.

Correction: The chart incorrectly calculated the Pirates' wins and losses based on 14 total remaining games. As noted in the body of the post, the Pirates have 17 remaining total games. The chart has been corrected to reflect this reality.

Reds, Brewers complete Jonathan Broxton trade with prospects Barrett Astin, Kevin Shackelford

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The Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers have completed the Jonathan Broxton trade. Milwaukee sends pitching prospects Barrett Astin and Kevin Shackelford to Cincinnati. Here's a look at the two newest members of the Reds organization.

Barrett Astin, RHP: Astin was drafted by the Brewers in the third round in 2013, from the University of Arkansas. He pitched for Wisconsin in the Low-A Midwest League in 2014, posting a 4.96 ERA in 122 innings with an 81/36 K/BB and 132 hits allowed.

Astin is a 6-2, 210 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born October 22, 1991. He struggled as a starter this year with a 5.55 ERA in 96 innings, but was much more effective when used in a relief role, posting a 2.77 ERA with a 15/7 K/BB in 26 bullpen frames. He was a successful reliever in college and that is likely his long-term role as a professional. Astin features an 88-91 MPH fastball when used as a starter, but in the bullpen he's been clocked as high as 93. He has a curveball and a cutter and usually throws strikes, but needs more consistency with the secondary offerings.





Kevin Shackelford, RHP:
Milwaukee drafted Shackelford in the 21st round in 2010 from Marshall University. He was brilliant in 21 innings for High-A Brevard County in the Florida State League this year, posting a 16/4 K/BB and 0.87 ERA, but was less effective in 50 innings for Double-A Huntsville in the Southern League, posting a 4.86 ERA with a 25/17 K/BB in 50 innings.

Shackelford is a 6-5, 210 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born April 7, 1989. A ground ball pitcher, he gets good sinking action on his 90-95 MPH fastball, but his slider is erratic, varying between plus and poor depending on when you see him. Problems with the breaking ball resulted in a poor K/IP ratio in Double-A, but he has considerable arm strength and could still develop into a useful reliever.



ANALYSIS:
Both Astin and Shackelford are Grade C prospects at this point, but both have flashed the ability to be useful major league relievers if they develop more consistency with their secondary pitches. They add some bullpen depth to the system, which is all the Reds were looking for while dumping Broxton's salary.

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