Today's lessons include the extension of the losing streak, another player out of action, and reaction from around the web following the passing of Bruce Seid.
We had some hope for a few innings last night as the Brewers took a 1-0 lead in the second inning. However, the Cubs took a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the second, expanded it to 6-1 in the third, and took control for the rest of the game. The Brewers did make it interesting in the sixth, scoring a run and loading the bases with one out, but couldn't do anything else as they left the bases loaded.
The season is on the line in this four-game series against the Cardinals that starts today at Miller Park. Wily Peralta will be the next pitcher to try to get this team back on track, and he will have to face returning Cardinals starter Michael Wacha to do it. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Joe Morgan of MLB.com has the preview.
The Brew Crew had claimed first since April, but an eight game losing streak has sent their playoff hopes sliding. Milwaukee's roster -- a middle of the pack bunch in 2013 -- has only seen minor changes in the last year, so should we have seen this plunge coming?
The Milwaukee Brewers have lost eight games in a row, falling three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central, and casting a pall over Miller Park.
After being swept by the Giants and -- eek -- the Cubs, the Brewers hold the tiniest lead (0.5 games) over the Braves for the second wild card spot. Earlier this week, news broke that All-Star Carlos Gomez would miss at least a week with a sprained wrist, and Milwaukee begins a massive four-game set with St. Louis today. Is this all an elaborate scheme cooked up by the Green Bay Packers' marketing department, or should we have seen this slide coming?
The Packers don't need any marketing help, so perhaps Milwaukee's regression was inevitable.
After a so-so 2013 that was marred by Ryan Braun's suspension, the Brewers, perhaps wisely, maid only minor tinkers to the roster. Matt Garza arrived as a free agent (4 years, $50 million) to anchor a balanced pitching staff. Norichika Aoki was swapped for lefty reliever Will Smith, clearing room for up-and-comer Khris Davis in the outfield. Mark Reynolds was brought in to do Mark Reynolds things.
Mostly, the Brewers were banking on a Braun comeback, and the continued blossoming of Gomez and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. These things have mostly come to pass, with Gomez and Lucroy putting together All-Star -- and in Lucroy's case, a fringe MVP-ish -- seasons, though Braun's numbers have been un-Braun like.
So after a below average 2013 and a cross-your-fingers approach to 2014, perhaps the anomaly was the Brewers being in first place for this long anyway. Starting pitching has dipped, the bullpen is imploding (Will Smith has given up 21 runs in his last 18.1 innings, including a four-run disaster on Saturday), and the bats have quieted. Milwaukee was due for some regression, but rarely does regression come raring its head all at once, plaguing the entire roster.
Brewers management has done their best to quell the swoon, bringing in reliever Jonathan Broxton from division rival Cincinnati, that after adding the spunky Gerardo Parra before the trade deadline. With seven games left with St. Louis and three remaining tilts with the Pirates, the Brewers still have time to make things right. Maybe we should have seen this regression coming, but like a basketball team that's built a big lead (somebody give a Bucks fan a hug right now) and just hopes for the clock to run out, the Brewers are left clinging to the last wild card spot. We'll see if they can hold on.
Perusing the Reds-related links in Thursday's baseball universe.
Remember when P-Doc and a host of other experts on the subject were giving Joey Votto flack for not playing through pain, sitting out too long, and letting his team down (no, I'm not linking to it)? I wonder if they'll mention the similar nature of Brandon Phillips, who Mark Sheldon notes has not been nearly 100% since his return from thumb surgery. In fact, Bryan Price even corroborated that Phillips probably came back much too soon, and the numbers speak volumes about that being the case. He's hit just .138/.194/.172 in 62 PA since returning on August 18th, is currently in the midst of an 0 for 21 streak, and he's done that while hitting 3rd in the order in 12 of the 15 games in which he's played. Speaking of those 15 games, he has started and had at least 4 PA in each and every one of them, meaning there has been no easing him back into things, either. As for the Reds as a whole, well, they lost the first 5 games after Phillips returned and are just 5-10 overall with him back in the lineup. There goes any chance I'll ever have of interviewing Brandon Phillips, I imagine.
John Fay of the Enquirer dropped a notebook-style post today, and it focuses on exactly what the injuries that have riddled the Reds this year have cost the team in terms of, well, I'm not really sure. It's a rudimentary comparison between the production of the key players who have missed time on the DL in 2014 compared to their 2012 production, and while that's far from a 1 for 1 perfect way to compare them, it does show exactly how vast the difference in value has been between the two seasons. Comparing imperfect scaled values from one season to imperfect scaled values from another doesn't really work, but it gets the basic point across that the 2014 Reds were older, less good, and a butt-ton more injured than their 2012 selves. Here's to hoping that 2012 wasn't the end-all, be-all peak.
Remember when Walt Jocketty traded Jonathan Broxton and all of his salary to the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers for a pair of PTBNL prospects? Well, Broxton hasn't even taken the mound for the Brew Crew, yet, since they've not won a game since his acquisition. They're in the midst of an 8 game losing streak that has dropped them 3 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, which has me thinking that Walt's residual Cardinalness has rubbed some of the devil-deal on Milwaukee in this trade somehow, someway.
Zack Cozart has been away from the team and with his wife for the last few days, and they recently welcomed their first child, Cooper. Congrats, baby Zackuum! Sheldon also notes that Cozy has been dealing with a sore right wrist of late, and that has coincided with his time away from the team. That's a bummer, since Cozart was coming off an August that saw him set monthly season highs for OPS, SLG, SB, and RBI. Here's to hoping he's back in action sooner rather than later as he makes a push for a potential Gold Glove.
As an update to last night's foray into where Skip Schumaker ranks on the hierarchy (loerarchy) of the MLB fWAR list, it appears that his single and nonexistent defense actually catapulted him way up to -1.3 fWAR on the season. I don't know about you, but I certainly saw a half-win's worth of improvement out of him last night. So while he's still the 2nd best at being bad in the NL (behind Domonic Brown's -1.8), he has vaulted all the way to being just the 6th least valuable player in all of MLB so far this season. The race to Doug Flynndom is still very, very on, though.
Jeimer Candelario and Mike Olt led the Cougars to a first round sweep. Daytona falls behind one game to none in the best-of-five championship series.
Congratulations to Kyle Schwarber and Pierce Johnson, who were your choices for the Cubs Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Month for August. Your choices agree with the Cubs "official" choices, so it's a double win for those two.
Finally, it was announced today that Bijan Rademacher has been added to the roster of the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League. A well-deserved honor.
Juan Paniagua started and took the loss. He went three innings and allowed two runs on five hits. One of the two runs was unearned. Paniagua walked three and struck out three.
Left fielder Bijan Rademacher stayed hot, going 3 for 3 and scoring a run.
Second baseman Gioskar Amaya was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI.
The two teams will play again tomorrow at 6:05 Central in Ft. Myers at JetBlue Park, the spring training home of the Red Sox.
Starter Duane Underwood didn't make it out of the fourth inning. Underwood allowed three runs on five hits, including a home run, over 3.2 innings. Underwood walked three and struck out three.
After that, the Cougars bullpen tossed nine scoreless innings. Michael Heesch didn't allow a hit over 2.1 innings, although he did walk two and he did strike out two. James Pugliese allowed two hits and one walk over two innings. Pugliese struck out two.
Then Jasvir Rakkar was very impressive over 3.2 innings. Rakkar allowed one hit and one walk while striking out six.
Francisco Carrillo entered the game when Rakkar walked a batter with two outs in the top of the 12th. Carrillo then walked the bases loaded, but got out of the inning with a ground out. Then he pitched a scoreless 13th inning, giving up one hit and getting the win. Carrillo did not have a strikeout.
The Cougars scored a run in the bottom of the first inning when Chesny Young and Jeimer Candelario hit back-to-back doubles.
The Cougars didn't score again until the eighth inning when Mike Olt smashed a two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth. The winning run in the 13th came whenCandelariosingled home Trey Martin, who had led off the inning with a single and reached third on a bunt and an error.
Candelario was 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored. He walked twice and was hit by a pitch. Young was 1 for 5 with two walks.
Left fielder Shawon Dunston was 2 for 5 and was hit by a pitch. He stole two bases. Center fielder Trey Martin was 2 for 5 with two walks and a steal. He did admire what he thought was a game-winning home run in the 11th that bounced off the top of the wall. He was thrown out going into second base on the play.
Mike Olt was 2 for 4 with a double and the home run. He'll be taken off the disabled list and called up to Chicago tomorrow.
A quick word about Olt. Some in the Brewers organization were reportedly complaining that Olt played in these two games. But Olt was legitimately coming off an injury and the Cubs, like any other organization, wanted him to get some at-bats in before getting activated. There were no other games that Olt could have been guaranteed to get the two games in to get him back into game shape. This happens all the time. There was nothing nefarious about it. In fact, with the game on the line in the bottom of the ninth, the Cougars pinch-hit for Olt because he had gotten the four ABs in that they felt he needed.
Second, if it was Aramis Ramirez who needed to get some ABs in before coming off the disabled list, the Brewers would have put him in the lineup without question. They'd be negligent if they didn't.
Finally, this is Mike Olt we're talking about. For all the Brewers complaining about a "major leaguer" playing in these games, Olt was playing in Iowa when he got injured. The Brewers really ought to be more worried about their nine-game losing streak in the majors.
Anyway, the Cougars will play the winner of the Cedar Rapids/Burlington series on Saturday. Without Mike Olt.
Outfield web gems, solid bullpen bring home sixth straight win.
Tonight, Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.50 xFIP) faced off against the BrewersWily Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 3.73 xFIP) at Miller Park.
Xavier Scruggs was called up today, finally providing the Cards a backup first baseman since the departure of Allen Craig. It's been pretty clear that Matt Adams has been nursing an oblique injury. Scruggs gets into the lineup immediately, and Smash gets the night off.
A nailbiter, indeed. After getting out to an early lead, the Birdos stranded 11 baserunners. The Brewers stranded just as many, causing heartburn throughout Cardinalsland and Brewersland (or whatever portion of Wisconsin that wasn't watching the Packers) alike.
The Cards built that early lead in the first. Serial singles by Matt Carpenter, Jon Jay, and Matt Holliday juiced the bases. Jhonny Peralta popped out to right, but not deep enough to get a run home, especially with Parra's arm. (A note for later). But Yadier Molina drove in two on a single, the second runner Jay sliding in just ahead of the tag at home. It was something of a noodly throw by Khris Davis. 2-0 Cards.
In the bottom of the first, Jonathan Lucroy doubled home Gerardo Parra to cut the Cards lead in half. With Lucroy standing at third as the tie run and two out, Jay made a hecuva diving catch to rob Davis of a hit and Milwaukee of a run. 2-1 Cards.
Danny Mac heroically caught a foul back into the booth to no doubt save Hrabosky from certain plunking. Dan gave the ball to a kid who was so impressed, she continued eating her ice cream as though nothing happened. Dan's hand is listed as day-to-day.
Leading off the 4th, Mark Ellis made his first post-DL appearance to pinch hit for Wacha, ending his night. Why Ellis was pinch hitting there rather than a lefty against Peralta is anyone's guess.
Wacha's line for the night: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 50 pitches, 34 strikes.
Maybe had a bit of trouble keeping the ball down at times, but he's still knocking the rust off. I think you have to be pretty pleased with this outing.
As planned, Marco Gonzales took over for Wacha. Marco set down the side in order in the 4th and 5th.
But in the 6th, Rickie Weeks drove a pinch hit dinger to dead center, again reducing the Cards to a slender one run lead. Marco got Parra to strike out, but Lucroy singled to short. Apparently Matheny had intended to treat Gonzales as a long reliever rather than a second starter, and that was enough to bring in the bullpen.
Mike called for Jason Motte, also also making his first appearance since returning from the disabled list. Motte gave up a single to Aramis Ramirez. Then Davis hit a deep fly to right that Jay made yet another great catch on, running to the track. After a walk to Lyle Overbay , Matheny had seen enough and brought in Seth Maness to clean up the bases loaded jam.
The 9th kicked off with a Grinder single. Jay, one of the hottest hitters on the team, was asked to bunt but drew a walk. Then, as if to top the anxiety of the previous 8 innings, Holliday ripped a grounder to the left side, but it hit Carpenter on the basepath going to third. Unreal. Peralta walked to load the bases. Then Yadi got a fly into right, but not deep enough with Parra's arm. Jay thrown out at the plate. Matheny had a bit of a chin wag with the umps about whether the catcher was blocking the plate, but to no avail.
With the save situation in play, Trevor Rosenthal was brought in for the 9th. This was fraught as well, with Trevor walking Weeks and Lucroy, but he was able to nail down the save and the victory.
Chattanooga Lookouts take Game 1 of the Southern League Semifinal Round 4-3 over Huntsville Stars
Minor League Player of the Day– Andres Santiago (AA) - 6 IP, two runs, four hits, two walks and three strikeouts. Santiago's last start earned him Baseball America's best minor league start of the 2014 season. On Thursday, Santiago was the first game starter and he pitched a solid six innings and earned the win over Huntsville and gave the Lookouts the 1-0 lead in the series.
AAA– Season over
AA – The Lookouts scored the first three runs of the game and paced by another good outing by Andres Santiago, Chattanooga took the first game of their semifinal series by defeating Huntsville (Brewers) 4 - 3. Santiago scattered four hits and two walks in 6 innings of work and left with the team ahead by two runs. Then the bullpen took over. Mike Thomas allowed a run in his two innings. Jhan Martinez got two outs in the ninth inning and Daniel Coulombe closed out the win with a strikeout.
At the plate, a couple of apostrophes hit solo home runs. Chris O'Brien and O'Koyea Dickson each hit one out (as well as old friend, Huntsville Star Hector Giminez. Daniel Mayora was 4 for 4 with two doubles and an RBI. And even starting pitcher Andres Santiago chipped in with a 1 for 3 game with a double and a run scored.
HiA – Season over
LoA– Season over
Rookie Ogden– Tied at 2, the Raptors gave up four runs in the 4th inning and lost to Chukars (Royals) 8 - 3. The Raptors clinched their playoff spot a few days ago so their focus could have been on Friday's playoff opener. Also they suffered a blow to their offense when this announcement came out Thursday:
Justin Chigbogu broke his hand. Well isn't that something.
Chigbogu hit a league leading 20 home runs and slugged .520.
As for Thursday's game, Victor Gonzalez started and was tagged for five runs and six hits in 3.2 innings. Abdiel Velasquez pitched the next 2 innings and allowed two runs, four hits and struck out three. Jairo Pacheco and Derrick Sylvester finished the game.
The Raptors only had five hits with Cody Bellinger going 2 for 4 with a triple.
Rookie Arizona– Season over
DSL – Season over
Coming up– Postseason play continues for two teams, the Lookouts will try for a 2-0 lead as they start Steve Smith. The Raptors will begin their best of three series against the Owlz with Brock Stewart toeing the rubber.
Minor League Transactions – AAA - DodgerssentCarlos Triunfeloutright to Albuquerque Isotopes. Ogden: Placed 1B Justin Chigbogu on the 7-day disabled list.
A look at the standings and postseason odds with 22 games left to play.
On Wednesday night, the St. Louis Cardinals opened a four-game series against the second-place Brewers in Milwaukee with a 3-2 victory. The loss was the Brew Crew's ninth in a row and dropped them to 73-67 and a full four games back of the Cards in the National League Central standings. With 22 games remaining for both teams, what does the NL postseason picture look like?
The Brewers started out 20-7, and the conventional wisdom at the time was that they weren't that good of a team. Of course, they have proven not to be a .740 team. The question was how far the Brewers would fall from the unsustainable heights to which they soared in the season's opening month. Since the 20-7 high-water mark, Milwaukee's record is 53-60, which works out to a .469 winning percentage. In the mediocrity that is the 2014 NL, such a fade has not snuffed out the Brewers' postseason hopes. In fact, Milwaukee remains tied for the second wild card.
The Cardinals are sitting pretty, 4.0 games ahead in the Central and the second Wild Card. This desire a still negative run differential of -2. With 22 games to play, the Cards ought to be able to cheat Pythagorean for the first time in manager Mike Matheny's tenure and make the postseason for the third straight time over that same time period and for a fourth consecutive October overall. So indicates the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report.
Baseball Prospectus calculates its playoff odds daily, simulating the season "based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule." Here are the odds through play on September 4, as shown on MLB.com.
Last night's win in Milwaukee increased the Cards' playoff odds from 85% to 91%. Such is the power of head-to-head match-ups. The Brewers and Redbirds face off six more times this month, starting tonight at Miller Park. The Cardinals could take major steps toward sealing up a second consecutive division crown (which would allow them to avoid the wild-card game) with a series win this weekend.
The games have moved into must-win territory, but the results are still the same. The Brewers could not break through last night as the losing streak reached nine games. They had their chances last night, collecting nine hits and four walks. However, they were 0-for-9 with RISP, and left eleven runners on base. Wily Peralta did his best and put together a quality start, but a quality start isn't good enough when the offense continues to struggle.
At least it's easier to get beer at Miller Park now. Yesterday, the Brewers debuted self-serve beer dispensers at Miller Park. The Brewer Nation blog has details on how the dispensers will work.
Minor League Update
Team
Level
Record
Yesterday
This Weekend
Huntsville Stars
AA
0-1
Southern League Playoffs Chattanooga 4, Huntsville 3
Pirates @ Cubs Friday: Vance Worley vs. Tsuyoshi Wada - 1:20 pm Saturday: Francisco Liriano vs. Felix Doubront - 3:05 pm Sunday: Gerrit Cole vs. Travis Wood - 1:20 pm
Mets @ Reds Friday: Bartolo Colon vs. Alfredo Simon - 6:10 pm Saturday: Dillon Gee vs. Johnny Cueto - 3:10 pm Sunday: Zack Wheeler vs. Mat Latos - 12:10 pm
Bruce Seid may have left us, but his impact on the Brewers will last for years to come. Tonight was a great example of that as the three players with the biggest impact on the game (Mike Fiers, Scooter Gennett, and Khris Davis) were members of his first draft class.
Mike Fiers continued his dominating ways early in the game. He allowed a base runner in each of the first two innings and two in the third, but none would come around to score. One of the highlights took place in the second inning when Fiers picked off Peter Bourjos at first base for the third out.
Fiers could not blank the Cardinals as hard as he tried. In the sixth inning with two outs Jhonny "I Don't Care If I Spell It Weirdly" Peralta hit a solo shot. Then in the seventh inning, Oscar Taveras was able to sneak a ground through the infield to give the Cards their second run. This would chase Fiers from the game as well, one out shy of 7 complete innings. Zach Duke retired the sole batter he faced that inning so Fiers final line would read: 6.2 IP, 7 hits, 2 earned runs, 2 runs, 1 walk, and 5 strike outs. Fiers now has a 2.03 ERA after 48.2 MLB innings pitched.
John Lackey was similarly effective, until the third inning that is. The Brewers didn't get their first hit until the third inning when Lyle Overbay led off the inning with a single. They got their second hit immediately after when Jean Segura beat out an infield single. Mike Fiers expertly bunted the runners over for Scooter Gennett who brought them both home with a line drive single to center!
The fifth inning was strikingly similar to the third. It started with Jean Segura beating out another infield single with one out. Mike Fiers then bunted him to second for Scooter Gennett who again brought him home with a scorching liner to center, this time a double. The similarities ended there as Jonathan Lucroy drove in Gennett with a single of his own.
The sixth inning took on a flavor all it's own. With one out Gerardo Parra lined a single. The Khris Davis hit his (now club leading) 22nd home run to give the Brewers a 6-1 lead. The Brewers didn't score another run that inning, but I'd be remiss not to mention Jean Segura hit his third single of the night (thanks in part to a lousy throw). If nothing else, he cleared the pitcher's spot.
Tyler Lyons took over for Lackey in the seventh inning. He hit Jonathan Lucroy and gave up a single to Ryan Braun, but both would be stranded. Brewers would take their 6-2 lead into the eighth inning.
Jonathan Broxton entered the eighth inning with his first lead as a member of the Brewers. He would leave the inning with that lead intact. Broxton struck out Jon Jay, got Matt Holliday to ground out to the pitcher, and ended the inning on a grounder to first by Jhonny Peralta. All he needed was 10 pitches. That makes two scoreless outings for Jonathan Broxton in a Brewers uniform.
Recently relegated to the bullpen, Justin Masterson pitched a clean eighth inning for the Cardinals.
With a lack of recent action, Ron Roenicke gave Francisco Rodriguez the ninth inning. Yadier Molina and Kolton Wong both reached on back to back singles. He got ahead of Peter Bourjos 0-2. Then he threw 3 straight balls. On pitch 6 he got him swinging for the first out. Daniel Descalso grounded to first and Overbay threw to second for the out, but the relay wasn't in time. Two outs, runners at the corners for A.J. Pierzynski. Fly out. Game over. Streak snapped!
Game 3 of 4 takes place tomorrow at 6:10 pm CT as Kyle Lohse takes on Lance Lynn.
Other Notes:
Giants was delayed by rain, but before that they took an early 7-0 lead over the Tigers. A win would keep San Francisco 3 games up on the Brewers for the first Wild Card spot.
The Braves were dominated by the Marlins in an 11-3 loss. They fall back a game to the Brewers for the 2nd Wild Card. That's great, but also a little scary since the Marlins are up next for the Brewers.
The Pirates and Cubs were tied at 3 apiece in the top of the seventh inning before rain resulted in a suspended game. That game will resume tomorrow at 2 pm CT. The Pirates entered the day 1.5 games back of the Brewers and the second Wild Card. With the Brewers win they're currently 2 games back, but pending the results of the suspended game will either be 1.5 or 2.5 games back when the Brewers game starts tomorrow.
Scooter Gennett was removed from the game prior to the start of the eighth inning. The reason has yet to be divulged but he did dive for a ball in the seventh inning. It's possible the two are related.
The Cardinals did not reach a 7 game winning streak and the Brewers did not reach a 10 game losing streak on 9/5/14
Pregame
Mike Fiers, the Brewers excellent starting pitcher, he of the dominant 2.86 xFIP and 2.63 SIERA, means the Brewers will probably win this particular match. I just don't see the Cards dealing them 10 losses in a row...
John Lackey, the lacking in that kind of excellence Cardinals starter: 3.46 xFIP which is actually pretty darn good, and 3.62 SIERA, which is also better than I thought. However, the Cardinals clearly have the disadvantage here.
The Cardinals and Brewers have similar positional fWAR totals, but the Cards have more there. This is because of a slightly better defense, as their team wRC+ are identical at 97. I would guess this means the season ain't over yet, peeps.
Game
John Lackey looked great at first, but he gave up plenty of runs, which made me sad. A gamethread moment for this game would be this:
On the menu tonight is bourbon for me, not neat, but on ice. I am having a moderate amount of it, for a relatively low key Friday. Anyway, it was the third inning that spiked the WPA graph, with Scooter Gennett the likely culprit yet again. It was just a single, but he knocked in two Brewers. It was at this point that the Brewers win expectancy was just under 80% for some reason, even though they were only up by 2 runs.
The next nail in the proverbial coffin was Lucroy singling in the very pesky Scooter Gennett, who will be known as a villain to the Cardinals in a historical sense at this point, for 2014. By the time Khris Davis homered in the sixth, that was pretty much that. The Cards lost 6-2. There was some kind of weird drama at the end of the game, that I was unable to put my finger on, gladly. The Continental was also perplexed by it.
Not a fun game, but we were riding high before this and this just felt like an inevitable loss being that both teams were streaking in opposite directions and the fates were likely to regulate that shit.
John Lackey gets the WPA dunce hat tonight for the loss, while Fiers expected-ly got the WPA crown, confirming all our fears about him. The bullpens were non-factors in this event. Scooter Gennett predictably offended my sensibilities tonight, and Matt Carpenter was the opposite expectancy, at a negative one zero five.
Post-game
The Cards are 8-15 on Friday nights this season
Jhonny Peralta is 1 dinger away from 20 home runs on the season with a solo home run tonight, leading the team; Holliday is next at 16; the two Missouri teams have the least home runs in MLB. The Orioles have more than twice as many home runs as the Cardinals
Jon Jay lead the offense tonight and is something like 128 wRC+ and is presiding over the stat of BABIP. The Chief Justice has a higher wRC+ than Joey Votto and Mike Napoli, 2nd to Holliday on the Cards
The next game is at 6:10 central 9/6/14 which happens to be tomorrow on a Saturday
Now Playing
This is like my favorite song ever, enjoy it. Well, tied for first with a hundred other songs, anyway, if I am being truthful. Most of them songs by this band (amirite, moocow?).
This game was unspectacular, and yet, there were two dingers and Carlos Martinez.
pre game
The Cardinals six game winning streak (or seven, I cannot remember), was snapped last night. Also snapped was the Brewers ten game losing streak. They say streaks follow streaks. Hopefully the Cardinals put that superstition to rest by getting another in the win column tonight. Lance Lynn was a bit unspectacular in his last start out. Look for him to bounce back tonight, especially with Kyle Lohse opposing the Redbirds on the mound, a man the Cardinals seem to mercilessly and ruthlessly beat.
My faith in the Cardinals is disturbingly high right now. Probably annoyingly so, really. In fact, I am so certain they will win this game, I started writing this victory recap in the eighth inning. Am I afraid I will jinx it? Nope. Not at all. The Cards are unstoppable. Oh, but they lost yesterday, you say? Only to hide their invulnerability. Don't want other teams catching on.
The Cardinals got on the board right away with a good ole fashion Matt Matted In, just a Matt Holliday away form the Natural Mattrick. Matt Carpenter lead off the game with a walk, surprise, surprise, and after two outs by Jay and Holliday, Matt Adams launched a ball over the right field fence to give the Birdos a two-run lead.
Then, one of the weirdest innings I have ever seen happened to let the Brewers right back in the game. Scooter Gennett lead off the bottom of the frame by reaching courtesy of a Matt Adams error, because his name is Scooter and of course he did. Parra would double to put runners on second and third, then Braun would single to score both of them with help from not only a Matt Holliday fielding error, but also a throwing error. Lynn would escape without further damage, after Holliday threw out Braun at the plate trying to score on fly ball to left for the double play.
Oscar Taveras started in right field today. This is relevant, but first, let's look at his RBI pinch hit from yesterday's game:
Kolten Wong doubled in Jhonny Peralta to break the tie. Oscar Taveras stepped to the plate, earning the start today after impressing Matheny with his nine-pitch at bat yesterday. He promptly made the Cardinal skipper look like a genius, depositing a Kyle Lohse change-up over the right field wall.
The Brewers cobbled together another run in the sixth, taking advantage of a tiring Lance Lynn who ended up pitching over one hundred pitches tonight in six innings. Lynn was a bit shaky, surrendering three runs on five hits and four walks, but he was able to gut through it and notch five strikeouts on the night. The bullpen of Sam Freeman, Carlos Martinez, and Trevor Rosenthal shut, nay slammed, the door. Martinez was especially erotic, enticing hitters with his seductive change-up, after playing hard to get with some sinking 97 mph heat. Rosey notched his league leading forty-third save, working around a two-out double by Rickie Weeks, which happened to be his 1000th career hit.
The Cardinals had four hits, three errors, and yet still win five to three.
post game
LIL SCOOTER'S PLAYER OF THE GAME:
According to WPA this award should really go to Matt Adams. His two-run home run propelled him to .167 WPA. Second by WPA is Oscar Taveras, as his two-run home run propelled him to .118. But again, I am going agianst my own rules here, and giving the honor to Carlos Martinez. As a relief pitcher in a five to three game, he racked up .101 WPA in one and one-third innings with three strikeouts and only one hit. Viva el Gallo.
Note Number One: After getting jammed on a pitch in the ninth, Yadi looked to be in pain and shaking his right hand, the hand where his surgically repaired thumb resides. He came back out to catch the bottom of the frame after passing strength tests. Just something to be aware of.
Note Number Two: During Lance Lynn's interview on the postgame show, Miss New Booty began playing in the Cardinals clubhouse, much the amusement of Lance Lynn and myself.
Note Number Three: The Cardinals move to four games up on the Brewers and four and a half games up on the Pirates. The Magic Number is now, what? Eighteen?
Tomorrow Adam Wainwright and his zombie arm will take the mound at 12:10pm CST. Opposing him will be Jimmy Nelson. Waino has said he feels he has turned a corner. Please feel better Waino, for I worry about thee.
Ralston Cash and Corey Seager lead Chattanooga to a 2-1 series lead; Ogden is swept out of Pioneer League playoffs
Minor League Player of the Day– Ralston Cash (AA) - 2 IP, six batters faced, six strikeouts. The Dodgers 2010 second round pick had not advanced beyond A-Ball in his five years of professional until he was promoted from Great Lakes to Chattanooga this past August. In 2014, Cash pitched exclusively out of the bullpen and that may be his path to the majors, Cash's final 2014 stat line (combining Great Lakes and Chattanooga) was 59 IP, 72 strikeouts and one home run allowed.
AA – The Lookouts saw the Stars score first but then the Lookouts tied the game and then pushed across one more to win 2-1 and take a two games to one lead in their best-of-five series. Jeremy Khert started for the Lookouts and did well, pitching 5 innings, allowing 4 hits, one run, two walks and striking out six. Player of the Day, Ralston Cash, struck each of the six batters he faced.
Daniel Coulombe was credited with the save.
Corey Seager led off the bottom of seventh with a single. With runners on first and second and one out, Angel Sanchez's pinch hit single drove in Seager with the ultimate winning run.
Rookie Ogden– Ogden lost 7-4 to Orem (Angels) and were swept in their best-of-three series. Grant Holmes took a 2-0 lead to the bottom of the second inning but then Holmes gave up six runs. Holmes only pitched one inning plus where he gave up six runs, four hits, one walk and Holmes struck out three.
Cody Bellinger and Jacob Scavuzzoeach had two hits in the loss.
Coming up– Lookouts send Matt Shelton out on the mound in Game 4 of their best-of-five series.
Minor League Transactions – (AAA) - Dodgers selected the contract ofRoger Bernadina
The Miami Marlins topped the Atlanta Braves 4-0 on Sunday afternoon. Brad Hand pitched well as the Marlins won their first series since mid-August.
Miami has positioned itself to win series of late, but has been unable to put games away late. With a 4-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves on Sunday afternoon, the Marlins won their first series since the middle of August.
Brad Hand was solid through six innings, not allowing a run while striking out three.
Miami offensively first got on the board in the bottom of the fifth against Julio Teheran. With two outs, Garrett Jones doubled before Jarrod Saltalamacchia's RBI single gave the Marlins a 1-0 edge.
Continuing to have good swings, the Marlins were able to add three runs in the bottom of sixth. Christian Yelich and Donovan Solano singled to open the frame before a Marcell Ozuna two-RBI double and Saltalamacchia sacrifice fly gave Miami a four run lead that wouldn't be lost.
Chris Hatcher and Mike Dunn were solid in relief before A.J. Ramos closed things out for the Marlins. Miami begins a four game series with the Brewers on Monday night.
Unfortunately for me I missed most of today's game but looking at this graph Adam Wainwright returned to form and dominated the hapless Brewers lineup. I was faced with the decision of watching baseball or hanging out with and catching up with old friends while I was in town and I chose the friendly comraderie, which appears to have been just fine as the Cardinals trounced the Breweres 9 runs to 1.
Scooter Gennett did not have it in him today and neither did the rest of the Brewers lineup. The Cardinals however were powered by VEB favorites Peter Bourjos and Oscar Taveras who went 5 for 8 and provided 3 rbi. Matt Carpenter brought his own 2 ribbies and the ahwesome Jhonny Peralta also pitched in with another 2 RBI.
Adam Wainwright was the hero of the day though with a .278 WPA and a tremendous win. Good to see Adam back in form albeit not too spectacularly with 3 K over 9 IP.
Shelby Miller pitches tomorrow night and I assume ihb is not covering that for a change at 6:10pm.
Sorry for the brevity here and not seeing most of the game but I need to drive back to Chicago ASAP.
Lookouts will host Game 5 on Monday evening, winner to move on to Southern League championship series
Minor League Player of the Day– (AA) - Matt Shelton, 5 IP, one run, two hits, one walk and struck out five. Though he took the loss, Shelton had a solid start in his attempt to close out the playoff series.
AA – The Lookouts were shutout by the Stars (Brewers) 4-0 and the best-of-five series is tied 2-2. Matt Shelton started for the Lookouts and pitched five good innings, allowing just run and two hits. Rehabbing Onelki Garcia pitched a scoreless sixth inning. However, Blake Smith gave up three runs in his two innings and that was more than enough to seal the Lookouts fate.
For the second time in this series, the Lookouts offense were held to zero runs. Corey Seager, O'Koyea Dickson, and Scott Schebler each had a single.
Coming up– Nick Struck will toe the rubber in Game 5.
Minor League Transactions – (AA) - Dodgers sent LHP Onelki Garcia on a rehab assignment to Chattanooga Lookouts.
After quickly being overtaken in the standings, the Milwaukee catcher was vocal in what team he believed was superior.
The Cardinals are rolling. After winning three of four against the Brewers this past weekend, the Cards were able to put five games between themselves and the Brew Crew. Pittsburgh was able to take advantage of Milwaukee's recent struggles and now sit a half a game in front of them, putting them second in the Central, four and a half behind the Cardinals. After being in first place for 159 days this season, the Brewers find themselves in third place in the NL Central and on the outside looking in in the playoff race.
Lucroy, like most other players would, is attempting to stay positive in the midst of a slump, which I find entirely reasonable. He thinks that the team he is employed by and plays on is better than a team he does not play on. Well, duh, of course he does! The timing for such a statement is a little poor, having just lost badly to the team he referenced, but that isn't the part I am really interested in.
Being an inquisitive person who prefers facts to subjective ideas, his statement about comparing player to player made me curious if it were true. And so, I unveil to you a side-by-side comparison of the Cardinals and Brewers fWAR by position:
Basically what I did was looked at the Cardinals players for each position and picked the one with the highest fWAR at his respective position. I did the same for the Brewers on the right.
The first thing I found interesting about this table was the dominating Cardinals pitching staff. If I were to just compare starting position players, it would be even four-to-four. However, when you include the pitchers, the table is overwhelmingly red. If Pat Neshek were ranked with the Brewers' pitchers, he would be tied for second with Yovani Gallardo. That is a pretty impressive difference.
One thing you might notice is I did not account for the Cardinals centerfield platoon, nor the Brewers platoon at first base. To keep the table as simple as possible, I did not consider platoons versus non-platoons, but to help account for the WAR being missed, I added a "Bench" position. This position is just the position player that was not included in the starting eight with the highest WAR.
What this table shows is that, frankly, Lucroy is incorrect. Compared position-by-position, the Cardinals have an obvious advantage, especially in pitching. Starting position players is much closer, being four to four - five to four if Bourjos is accounted for on the "bench". The Cardinals team everyone has seen for the past ten days, while yes, are on a bit of a hot streak, are not just getting lucky. The team is actually good and this is what everyone expected and waited for since the beginning of the season.
When Lucroy said the Brewers were better player-to-player than the Cardinals, he probably didn't mean in a snarky fWAR comparison. The Brewers were in first place for 159 days - that is not insignificant by any means. But we all know it isn't who is first the longest, it is who is first at the end - they call this season a marathon for a reason. Baseball has this strange way of ironing itself out at the end, and if Mr. Lucroy is correct, the final numbers will reflect that. Numbers never lie.
The Brewers hold a club option on Gallardo for 2015. It seemed a given he'd be returning, but a recent rumor has but that in question.
Yovani Gallardo (along with Ryan Braun) is set to become the longest tenured Brewers player next year (assuming Rickie Weeks is not brought back). The Brewers own a club option on Gallardo for next year at $13 million with a $600,000 buyout. After struggling last year, Gallardo has bounced back nicely this year and so it seemed to me a guarantee the Brewers would exercise that option. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that may not be the case.
Very specifically, Cafardo says, with regards to exercising Gallardo's option, "there's some pushback by some in the organization, feeling the Brewers might be better off spending the money elsewhere." That's very interesting and it brings up a multitude of questions the chief among them being: If the money is better spent elsewhere, where exactly is it better spent? Through process of elimination we can probably assume the only areas that could stand from improvement (requiring a salary commitment around or above $13 million) are third base, first base, and the rotation itself.
At third base the Brewers currently have Aramis Ramirez. He's performed adequately this year, though his age is starting to show. To date this season he's slashed 297/341/444 which is good for a 117 wRC+. The troubling trend is his disappearing power. That SLG would be his lowest mark outside the aberration that was his 2002 season. His 14 HR would be his lowest mark as well, but there are 19 games left to add to that. Assuming he performs exactly the same next year, that's not exactly what you want for $14 million (the cost of his mutual option). At age 37 it's not irresponsible to suggest a decrease in production is likely. So yeah, the Brewers might be better off spending money on a different third baseman.
The options aren't terribly appealing though. Realistic upgrades include Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, and Pablo Sandoval. You could also throw in Asdrubal Cabrera and Korean import Jeong Choi. Each of these players comes with a lot of risk and would require a solid commitment in both dollars and years. You can probably eliminate Hanley Ramirez from the conversation for cost reasons. Sandoval may also be too expensive. That leaves Headley as the only true third baseman and he hasn't exactly been good recently. Also, one must realize there is actually a lot of value in the one year commitment it takes to bring back Ramirez, even if the Brewers technically overpay for that one year. (Which brings up a secondary point: If they were to replace Ramirez, they'd have the money they don't spend on him to do making the money they'd spend on Gallardo largely superfluous)
At first base the Brewers currently have a loose platoon of Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay. They've combined for a 1.3 fWAR and a 90 wRC+. Next year would be Lyle Overbay's year 38 season, so he's certainly not coming back. Mark Reynolds currently has an 88 wRC+. So yeah, the Brewers might be better off spending money on a different first baseman/first base platoon.
The free agent options at first base are almost nonexistent. For the sake of argument we'll assume Mark Reynolds is out of the running. If Adam Lind and Billy Butler's team options are picked up, the only realistic option seems to be 33 year old Michael Morse (280/338/477, 16 HR, 134 wRC+). I'm not sure that's the type of upgrade the Brewers would be hoping for if they're going to punt the chance at 30+ starts of 3.50 ERA from Gallardo.
There is also the chance the Brewers decide to go with a platoon of Jason Rogers and Matt Clark. It would be a platoon in the fashion of Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay (one RHH 1B/3B, one LHH 1B only). They would both make a total of $1 million (league min x 2). So the upgrade at first would not only have to be worth more than the value Gallardo would provide, but also be more valuable than what the Brewers think they could get out of Rogers/Clark for super cheap.
Finally, let's talk about the rotation. Obviously, if the Brewers are letting Gallardo walk (or trading him) they're going to have to replace him. Before I talk about free agents, I have to address Mike Fiers. I know. A surprising number of you are screaming right now that of course they'll just replace Gallardo with Mike Fiers. He has a 2.03 ERA for cripes sake!!! Well yeah, but you forgot about the second half of 2012 didn't you?
The Cardinals have burned the Brewers often. Here are some reasons why I do not like them.
Mike Fiers was awesome in his first 12 starts. He had a 1.80 ERA, 25% strike out rate, 5 percent walk rate, .216 BAA, and a 1.01 WHIP. He was Clayton Kershaw!!! Sound familiar? That's pretty much what he's been for the Brewers so far this year. But, in his last 10 starts of 2012 he was horrible. He had a 6.99 ERA, 24.9 strike out rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, .300 BAA, and a 1.68 WHIP.
Hold on. I know you're like, super angry right now. I'm not suggesting Mike Fiers secretly sucks. I actually think if anything, his success this year suggests he's capable of maintaining across a full season. I'm just pointing out that when Mike Fiers is off, he gets hit hard. It makes sense. He has a fringe fastball that plays up thanks to really good deception and really good control. If either of those things is off he's current era Brad Penny. So, at the very least, we don't know what is fair to expect out of him for 33 starts.
It's hard to put together a contender when you have Jekyll and Hyde as your fifth starter, but my objection to simply replacing Gallardo with Fiers goes deeper than that. Here was the rotational depth chart going into this season: Lohse-Garza-Gallardo-Peralta-Estrada-Nelson-Thornburg-Smith-Gorzelanny-Fiers (remember, Fiers had fallen off the radar after a poor 2013 mired by a broken arm). Marco Estrada is almost certainly gone after this year. Tom Gorzelanny too. Tyler Thornburg is questionable to pitch at all right now due to his unknown injury. Then we're also eliminating Gallardo. Do that and simply replace him with Fiers and next year's depth chart is: Lohse-Garza-Peralta-Nelson-Fiers-Smith. You could theoretically throw Taylor Jungmann into the mix, but you're taking on a lot of risk on a prospect who struggled in his first exposure to AAA. Basically, the rotational depth would be seriously compromised.
It's for those reasons I think if the Brewers don't bring Gallardo back next year it'll be so that they can bring in a new starter. They're not going to trade Gallardo for another starter because that wouldn't make sense, so back to free agency we go. After the acquisitions of Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza, I've begun to trust the Brewers when they make these types of free agent deals. Looking at the free agent list, I see 3 potential upgrades/potential targets: James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Brandon McCarthy.
Max Scherzer and Jon Lester figure to be the big SP targets for most clubs. In my estimation, James Shields would be third on the list. While Lester and Scherzer are both definitely out of the Brewers price range, James Shields just might fit. Shields has been a very good pitcher, but he is getting older and his skills have diminished somewhat. That being said, I do think he could provide more value than Gallardo on a purely performance level. He'll be 33 next year and so he won't be able to sign for a 5-7 year deal. Also, he's seen as unlikely to re-sign with the Royals who will certainly extend him a qualifying offer. Both of those factors in tandem may work to suppress his value in a way similar to what Lohse and Garza experienced. Even then, he'll certainly command a higher AAV than either of those pitchers. I'm guessing, but I think he'll sign for a few million less than $20 million AAV. It's possible the Brewers could defer a certain amount per year, as they have with several recent FA acquisitions, so that they're not paying him much more than the $13M they'd owe Gallardo next year.
Ervin Santana ranks a good deal lower on the list than Shields, but he could be solid too. Since moving to the NL he's seen his strike out rate jump back up, near a career high. He's also really only had 1 bad year since 2010. Since 2008 he's failed to throw 200 innings only twice. That ability is often overlooked but pitching deep into games can have a positive impact on a team's bullpen which is meaningful. The problem with Santana has always been the home run. It's been fine this year, but he's pitching in Turner Field and a move to Miller Park would likely not help his numbers. In addition to that it's possible, if not likely, the Braves also extend him a qualifying offer. The Brewers would be risking the draft pick in the hopes that his K% increase is real and that his HR/9 won't explode in Milwaukee.
Brandon McCarthy is a high risk/high reward pitcher. He was pretty terrible in Arizona, but there were mitigating factors. The dry air helps to inflate offensive numbers and more importantly the Diamondbacks forced him to stop throwing his cutter. When he was traded to the Yankees they allowed and actually encouraged him to reincorporate the pitch. So far it seems to have worked as his numbers are way better in New York. The main issue with McCarthy is his injury history. This season is the first time in his career he's pitched over 170 innings. In point of fact, he'll likely get around 200 innings in this year. If he's capable of recreating those innings going forward and he pitches like he has in NY (which is what his FIP/xFIP indicated he would) then he could provide great value. The key word being "IF."
Anyway, that's my opinion on what might happen if the Brewers do decide to move on from Gallardo. Honestly though, my real opinion is that they do exercise his option. Over recent years (2013 being the exception) he's provided pretty consistent mid-3.00 ERA value which isn't great, but is better than average. In free agency $13 million AAV is pretty close to what you pay for that level of production (look at Garza's contract). Only with Gallardo it comes with only a 1 year commitment. As I said before regarding Ramirez's option, having only to commit to 1 year is valuable in and of itself. Things will become clearer in the coming months, but for now I'm treating this as nothing but an interesting "What if?" scenario.
We finally saw some signs of life from the Brewers on Friday night, as they broke their losing streak and beat the Cardinals thanks to strong performances from Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis, and Mike Fiers. However, those signs of life didn't last long. They played well on Saturday but just couldn't win for a second straight day, and then were completely lifeless in a loss on Sunday. It nearly ended any hope they had of winning the division, and also put them out of the playoff picture as they dropped out of the second Wild Card spot.
Was the Brewers nine-game losing streak the worst nine game streak in Brewers history? Adam Wieser of Disciples of Uecker looks at how bad the streak has been, as well as some of the other worst streaks in franchise history.
Despite falling out of a playoff spot, the Brewers still have three weeks and 19 games to turn things around and save the season. The Marlins come to Miller Park next, and they are clinging to a slim playoff hope. Game 1 will feature Yovani Gallardo going against Brad Penny. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Stephen Pianovich of MLB.com has the preview.
Cubs attendance was unusually strong during the Pirates series, or at least that's what the tickets-sold figures say.
ON THE ROAD TO TORONTO -- There was both really bad weather and really good weather for the just-completed homestand. The attendance figures didn't really match up, though, at least not the announced tickets-sold totals.
Here are the numbers. For this homestand, the Cubs announced 198,041 tickets sold, or 33,007 per date. That's up from the previous homestand, and just about equal to the homestand in early August against the Rays and Brewers, when the per-game average was 33,116. My in-house estimates totalled 124,000, or 20,667 per date. That's an estimated average no-show count of 12,340 per date, not all of which can be accounted for by bad weather.
For the season, the Cubs now have sold 2,326,480 tickets, or 32,767 per date. That's up from the last post in this series... by 22 people. This number has been remarkably consistent for over a month. I don't know how to explain this, and I will say this: the announced totals for Friday and Saturday, September 5 and 6, seemed very high to me. The total for the two days, for example, is higher than the total for the previous weekend series (against the Orioles) for comparable dates, despite the fact that there were thousands of Orioles fans in attendance then, and many fewer Pirates fans in evidence this past weekend. The large estimated no-show totals bear this out, I think. My in-house estimates for the season total 1,745,000, or 24,577 per date. That's down from the last post in this series, but only by a few hundred.
It appears the Cubs will be very, very close to their tickets-sold total from 2013, unless the night games in the next homestand (seven of the 10 games) don't sell. To get two million in the house for the year (by my estimates), they'd need 255,000 butts in the seats for the 10 games, or 25,500 per game. That seems doable. Last year's in-house estimates totaled 1,822,000, so two million would be almost 10 percent more people actually showing up to games.
Overall the Cubs rank 11th in tickets sold, a few thousand behind the Rangers and about 50,000 ahead of the Nationals. The Cubs' per-game average is also 11th, a few hundred per game behind the Rockies and a few hundred per game ahead of the Nationals.
There's one final homestand coming up, 10 games against the Reds (three), Dodgers (four) and Cardinals (three). As noted above, that includes seven night games, which typically don't draw well once kids are back in school, no matter who the opponent is. If you look at the figures from the just-completed homestand, the three day games all sold significantly more tickets than the three night games, and that pattern has held for much of the season. The weather's supposed to get a lot cooler toward next weekend; that could also be a factor in late-season crowds. We'll see how it all ends up.
This is the final regular season series against a team outside of the NL Central. Let's hope the Brewers can make it count.
Some of my friends scoffed at me a month or so ago when I said I thought the Marlins had a chance to compete for the Wild Card in 2015. I don't blame them. Miami has been an easy target for derision in recent years and rightfully so. Yet here we are, with about 20 games left in the season and after a series win against the Braves, the Marlins find themselves on the peripheral of the Wild Card hunt this year. It's still a bit of a long shot right now, but at 4.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card (4 games back of the Brewers), they're very much in the conversation. In fact, they're actually half a game closer to the Wild Card than the Brewers are to the first place Cardinals. Isn't that depressing?
Sorry about that. In return, have some uplifting news: After Giancarlo Stanton (160 wRC+) and Christian Yelich (125 wRC+) the Marlins offense is pretty mediocre. Maybe even bad. If the Brewers pitchers can find a way to neutralize Stanton and Yelich they should be in good shape. Obviously that's easier said than done.
Their September bullpen is 11 deep. It's a bullpen that has found a lot of success year round. They have five or six really solid relievers including Sam Dyson, Bryan Morris, A.J. Ramos, Chris Hatcher, Mike Dunn, and closer Steve Chisek. It's probably a very bad thing if the Marlins take a lead into the late innings.
No, seriously. Brad Penny is starting for the Marlins on Monday. Yeah. That Brad Penny. No, I don't know how he is still pitching in the majors. He has an 11.4 K% and a 12.7 BB%. That is the first time I've ever seen a pitcher with a NEGATIVE K%-BB%. It's truly impressive. He also boasts a .319 BAA and a 1.93 WHIP. So his 6.61 ERA should come as no surprise. He has only pitched 16.2 innings this year, but he hasn't been good since 2007.
Tom Koehler is a great example of why you don't give up on prospects easily. He had a solid minor league track record until he first reached AAA in 2011. He was pretty bad that year accumulating a 4.97 ERA with his poorest K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. Then he followed up with a similarly poor AAA/MLB season in 2012. He spent most of last year at the MLB level and was pretty mediocre mostly due to a poor K% and BAA. Then this year happened.
Don't misunderstand. I'm not suggesting he's having a great year or that he's a superb pitcher. He's having just an all right season. His K% is a little below average and his BB% is littler higher than average. But his BAA is better than average and, certainly in part due to park factors, is keeping the ball in the park. All that has resulted in a 3.74 ERA. Not great, but not bad by any means. This is why you don't give up on prospects.
I think Jarred Cosart is a strange bird. He has a really poor 14.8 K% (lg avg is 20.3%) and a mediocre 8.9 BB% (lg avg is 7.7%). His .250 BAA is basically league average (.248) and his 1.34 WHIP is a little worse (lg avg 1.28). He's also mostly just a fastball/curve ball pitcher. Though, PITCHf/x does divide his fastball into a 4-seam, cutter, and sinker. He does throw a change-up though rarely (4%). Despite his mediocre peripherals and seemingly lacking repertoire he has a reasonable 3.78 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 4.13 xFIP.
He does induce a good deal of ground balls (54%) and he limits home runs at an insanely low rate (0.45 HR/9). That HR/9 is superb even at Marlins Park. I worry about a solid ground ball guy vs the Brewers.
FIP loves Nathan Eovaldi. It says he's almost a full point better than his ERA. I don't really understand why though. His 17.2 K% is 3 percentage points below average and he has a terrible horrible .271 BAA. To be fair, he has a really excellent 4.8 BB% and a very solid 0.61 HR/9. I still think his 4.19 ERA is more indicative of his performance this year than a 3.27 FIP because I just cannot ignore that opponent batting average.
Conclusion
League average ERA for starting pitchers in the National League is 3.77. So when I say the Marlins are throwing 3 league average pitchers at the Brewers I mean pretty much exactly that. Well, that would be 3 league average pitchers and Brad Penny. Which is kind of hilarious. Of course I'm writing this Sunday evening so they'll probably pull him back as karmic retribution. Assuming they don't, I feel pretty good about this four game series. I kind of said the same thing about the Cardinals series and that didn't go so well and the Marlins are coming off a series victory against the Braves (who the Brewers are now tied with, half a game back of the 2nd Wild Card) so it would be folly to dismiss them.
Still, I like the Brewers overall offense more, and I have more confidence in the starters they're sending out. I mean, it almost feels like Mike Fiers is an automatic win right now. It kind of feels the same way with Brad Penny starting the first game for the Marlins. So right there that's a series split at worst! All kidding aside I think we're going to see some fun Brewers baseball in this series.
Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link!
so are we feeling gruntled, or the opposite?
fka some flying horse