The Blue Jays make the rare trip to Miller Park in Milwaukee for a two-game set this week after sweeping the Brewers in a similar two-game series back at the Rogers Centre at the beginning of July. Back during the Canada Day game against Milwaukee, the Blue Jays were seven games above .500 and one game ahead of the Orioles....how things change. The Brewers are still surprising everyone though, currently sitting at 70-55 and 2.5 games ahead of the Cardinals in the National League Central. It seems like only a matter of time before St. Louis puts it all together and overtakes the Brew Crew, but it certainly hasn't happened yet.

An interesting pitching match-up tonight sees J.A. Happ take on righty Mike Fiers. The 29-year-old from Florida was recalled from Triple-A Nashville a few weeks ago to replace the injured Matt Garza and has pitched tremendously in his two starts thus far. In 14.0 innings since the promotion, Fiers has allowed just one run and in his last start against the Cubs he struck out 14 batters in just 6.0 innings of work (that's mental). He was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2009 draft and hasn't made much of an impression at the big league level although he has dominated in Triple-A this year as well.

The righty has a fairly unspectacular repertoire that features a low-90's fastball about 60% of the time, while changeups, curveballs, and cutters make up the rest. There's a good chance that a lot of Fiers numbers right now are small sample size magic, but he's located effectively and has made the most of his average-ish stuff. Blue Jays hitters better be prepared for his curveball though, as it has some nasty drop to it and it seems that hitters aren't able to recognize it very well at this point:

Hopeful Lineup

Oh no, pitchers get to hit.

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
5. Dioner Navarro C
6. Colby Rasmus CF
7. Juan Francisco 3B
8. Munenori Kawasaki 2B
9. J.A. Happ P

Bullpen Usage

Fiers was brilliant again and the Brewers offense was staggering.

Winning Pitcher: Mike Fiers

Losing Pitcher: J.A. Happ

Win Expectancy Chart

Boxscore

Inning the First

Mike Fiers picked up right where he left off with a strikeout to Jose Reyes. He got a flyout before issuing a walk to Jose Bautista. It wouldn't hurt the Brewers as he immediately proceeded to strike out Edwin Encarnacion on 3 pitches.

The Brewers offense picked up right where it left off as well. Three non-consecutive doubles from Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Aramis Ramirez would give the Brewers a 2-0 lead after the first inning.

Inning 2: The Quickening

Dioner Navarro blooped a single to lead off the inning and reached third base on a line drive double off the bat of Colby Rasmus. Juan Francisco justified a lot of impatient Brewers fans opinion of him with a strikeout. Munenori "I AM JAPANEEEEESE" Kawasaki drove in a run with a fielder's choice. Opposing pitcher J.A. Happ ended the inning by striking out, but give him credit for lasting past 3 pitches.

Brewers go 3 up 3 down.

Inning 3: The Dream Warriors

Blue Jays went 3 up 3 down.

The Brewers score another run on back-to-back doubles by Lucroy and Ryan Braun. Braun too would score after two back-to-back sac flies. Rickie Weeks would reach on an error

Inning 4: Nerds in Love

Blue Jays go down in order again.

Mike Fiers led off the inning for the Brewers with a bloop single. Carlos Gomez continued with his new found patience by drawing a walk on 4 pitches. J.A. Happ may have injured himself at some point because the athletic trainer came out to look at him during the Gomez at-bat and then Happ was removed from the game right after. Dustin McGowan entered the game and got two quick outs to end the Brewers threat.

Inning 5: Assignment Miami Beach

Blue Jays were unable to reach base for the third straight inning.

Aramis Ramirez led off the inning with his second double of the night, this of the ground-rule variety, and the six of the night for the Brewers. Khris Davis would immediately follow with the teams 7th double driving in the teams 5th run. Rickie Weeks would drive in the 6th run with a shot up the middle.

Inning 6: Back 2 tha Hood

After the Jays went down in order yet again, Fiers increased his streak to 15 consecutive batters retired.

The Brewers too did not reach base.

Inning 7: H20: Twenty Years Later

Fiers pitched yet another clean inning to end his night after 106 pitches. He ended up retiring the final 18 batters he faced. He struck out 6, walked 1, gave up 2 hits and 1 run. It was yet another excellent start from the phenomenal Fiers.

Khris Davis knocked a single, but that was it for the Brewers this inning.

Inning 8: Jason Takes Manhattan

Zack Duke kept the good news rolling with a 3 up 3 down inning.

The Brewers were also retired in order to end their night offensively.

Inning 9: Revelations

With a 5 run lead, Ron Roenicke opted to go with Brandon Kintzler in the ninth inning. Kintzler retired the side in order and so Brewers pitchers combined to retired the final 24 batters faced!

With tonight's win the Brewers increase their win streak to 5 games! Tomorrow is a day game and will feature Jimmy Nelson versus R.A. Dickey. Start time is 1:10 pm CT.

Other notes:

• The Pirates lost again. This time the Braves beat them 11-3. They fall to 7 games back of the Brewers.

• The Cardinals were losing by a run at the end of the Brewers game. They began the day 2.5 games back of the Brewers, so a loss will put them down to 3.5 games.

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Prognostikeggers 2014 - Week 20
• What we learned: August 19, 2014
• Division rivals are getting healthy again, how does it affect the Brewers
• Brewers have over 80% chance of making the playoffs
• Jonathan Lucroy and the quest for an NL Double crown

Blue Jays 1 Brewers 6

That was just frustrating. The Brewers were crushing everything thrown to the plate. The Jays couldn't hit anything.

J.A. Happ gave up 3 doubles in the first inning, it seemed lucky the Brewers only scored two runs. He gave up 2 more doubles and 2 more runs in the 3rd. A single and a walk into the 4th and Gibby had seen enough. Dustin McGowan got out of the innings without more runs scoring. Todd Redmond had no more luck than Happ, he gave up 2 doubles and a single (someone must have broken a bat), and another 2 runs. Redmond didn't look good out there, one of the few times this season he hasn't looked good.

Kyle Drabek came out to pitch the last two innings and he did look good in his first appearance for the Jays, allowing just 1 hit and getting 3 strikeouts. And he didn't walk anyone. He was about the only Jay to look decent.

We only managed 2 hits, a Dioner Navarro single and a Colby Rasmus double, in 7 innings, off Milwaukee starter Mike Fiers. We had no more luck against relievers Zach Duke and Brandon Kintzler. We didn't seem to hit anything hard all game long. Well, except for those of us that started drinking during the game. I don't know if Fiers was all that good, or if we were just that bad. I'm really ready to give up on Juan Francisco.

There was an interesting moment when Gibby picked pitcher Drew Hutchison to pinch hit with 2 out in the 5th. I guess the idea was to save our 'real' pinch hitters for a moment when there wasn't already 2 outs and no one on, but then Adam Lind was never used.

Teams look bad, and lifeless, when they lose, but man, we looked so bad tonight.

Colby Rasmus had the number for JoD today, at .101, but there were a couple of catches that he could have, should have made in the outfield, so I don't think he deserves it.

Suckage goes to Happ (-.283). And let's give one to the offense as a ground. 2 hits?

We had 689 comments in a pretty pleasant GameThread, with the odd oddity. I led the way for the first time in months. I think I deserve credit for sticking that one out.

The denouement of the season continues this afternoon in the state of Wisconsin as the Brewers look to finish off the sweep against the Blue Jays in this quick little two-game series. R.A. Dickey takes the mound for the Blue Jays and will probably have to allow zero runs as well as hit the game-winning solo home run if he hopes to win the game. The knuckleballer goes up against Jimmy Nelson, who is another Brewers starter that I've never heard of. He was recalled from Triple-A Nashville when Marco Estrada was pushed to the bullpen and he's fit in pretty well so far.

Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 drafted out of University of Alabama, the righty was a fairly high-ranked prospect in the Brewers system and made a steady climb through the minor leagues with very few hiccups. In seven major league starts this year, Nelson has a 3.86 ERA and a 3.73 FIP to along with a 53.9% GB-rate so it sure seems that the righty is a ground ball pitcher.

The tall 25-year-old features a reliever's repertoire, focusing on a heavy dosage of sinkers and sliders. Nelson is far from a contact pitcher though as his slider has 44.71 whiff/swing rate, which is pretty surprising for a two-pitch pitcher. This next chart should strike fear into anyone who watches the Blue Jays a lot, since none of their power hitters can seem to lay off this outside slider regardless of who throws it:

Hopeful Lineup

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
5. Colby Rasmus CF
6. Juan Francisco 3B
7. Josh Thole C
8. Munenori Kawasaki 2B
9. R.A. Dickey P

Bullpen Usage

Today's lessons include injury updates, rotation praises, and the addition of the elimination number.

Yesterday's Results

Brewers 6, Blue Jays 1

The Brewers put on a doubles show in Miller Park, with 7 of their 10 hits for extra bases. This helped the Brewers put up two runs in the first, third, and fifth innings. It was more than enough to back another strong start from Mike Fiers, who pitched seven innings and allowed only one run. In addition, the Brewers pitchers retired the last 24 Blue Jays in a row. It was a dominant performance all-around.

Cram Session

• Prior to yesterday's game, Derek put together a preview of the quick two-game series.
• Adam McCalvy has a few updates on the injured starters in his notebook from yesterday. Kyle Lohse is looking at a return Tuesday against the Padres, and Matt Garza should follow sometime in early September.
• Meanwhile, Jim Henderson had shoulder surgery yesterday, and is expected to be out for four months.
• The Brewers rotation has been a strength of the team this season. Jacob Shafer of Bleacher Report looks at that strength and asks if it is enough for a postseason run.
• Mike Fiers has kept the Brewers rotation stabilized after Matt Garza went down with his injury. Ben Tannenbaum looks at the success Mike Fiers has had, which includes some luck.
• Do the Brewers really need a bullpen upgrade? Jonathan Judge of Disciples of Uecker argues that the bullpen is fine (and very good) as is.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• Jay D of Reviewing the Brew has a profile on Clint Coulter.

Division Update

• Cardinals 5, Reds 4
• Braves 11, Pirates 3
• Cubs 2, Giants 0

Today's Division Games

• Reds (Johnny Cueto) @ Cardinals (Lance Lynn) - 7:15 pm
• Braves (Alex Wood) @ Pirates (Gerrit Cole) - 6:05 pm
• Giants (Jake Peavy) @ Cubs (Edwin Jackson) - 7:05 pm

Today's Action

The Brewers conclude the quick two-game series against the Blue Jays this afternoon at Miller Park. Jimmy Nelson will face off against R.A. Dickey in the matinee today. First pitch is at 1:10 pm, and Jamie Ross of MLB.com has the preview.

Now, with that little bit of time you have before today's game, go and make Prognostikeggers predictions.

Blue Jays 9 @ Brewers 5

Stringing together base hits is a solid strategy to score runs, and scoring more runs than the opponent is the most important key to victory.^{[citation needed]} The Blue Jays realized that today as they notched a win over the Brewers, by scoring 9 runs compared to the Milwaukee's 5.

Starter R.A. Dickey didn't have a great outing, giving up eight hits, a walk, and two hit batsmen en route to five earned runs. He was fooling a few Brewers hitters at the beginning of the game with a mixture of hard 80-mph "angry" knuckleballs and a few high-60 flutterbys.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

His line would've looked a lot better if John Gibbons had taken him out an inning earlier. Dickey had already reached 90 pitches through five, but in a perplexing decision, Gibbons decided to allow Dickey to bat for himself in the top of the sixth with one on and one out in a 3-3 game.

Milwaukee was the first to score, Gerardo Parra doubled to begin the bottom of the second inning and was scored on a blooper by Jean Segura to right field. Segura slid into second for a double but Jose Bautista's throw went past second base. With no backup from Danny Valencia at third or Melky Cabrera from left, Segura managed to advance to third base on the error. Luckily, dumb National League rules meant that pitcher Jimmy Nelson batted next, and he struck out to strand the runner.

The Blue Jays nearly gave up a run on another throwing error in the bottom of the fourth on a Parra triple off the wall in right-centre field. Colby Rasmus caught the ball off the wall, then threw it accurately to cutoff man Munenori Kawasaki, but then Kawasaki threw offline to third where Danny Valencia was unable to block the ball after it bounced on the dirt in front of him. The ball was destined for the third base dugout, but R.A. Dickey was right there to backup the play to prevent Parra from scoring...at that time at least. Later in the inning, Mark Reynolds slammed a Dickey offering to deep left field. Cabrera tracked the ball and jumped in front of the wall, but the ball bounced in and out of his glove as his back slammed into the plexiglass that covered the outfield scoreboard with an audible "thud". It looked like he jumped because he thought he was closer to the wall than he really was, but the good news is that although he looked like he was in some pain, he remained in the game. After the Reynolds double, Gibbons ordered Dickey to intentionally walk Segura because stupid National League rules meant that the pitcher batted ninth.

Dickey led off the Blue Jays' half of the fifth with a ground out (I'm not sure if it's clear enough that I am not a fan of pitchers batting), but then then the top of the order came through to tie the game 2-2. First, Jose Reyes double down the right field line, Melky Cabrera brought him in with his own double, a ground-rule variety just past right fielder Parra's glove on the warning track. Jose Bautista struck out, completely whiffing on a Nelson breaking ball, before Edwin Encarnacion hit a two-out single up the middle to score Cabrera.

The tie didn't last long as the Brewers got a run back the very next half-inning on a Danny Valencia throwing error on a tough play (although he atoned for it by starting a 5-4-3 double play right afterwards). An interesting moment happened on the broadcast, when home plate umpire David Rackley gave Dickey a gift strike call against Gerardo Parra, both Buck Martinez and Joe Siddall remained silent for a good 15 seconds.

Going into the sixth, the Brewers were holding a 4-3 lead with the pitcher's spot due up fourth, and with Aaron Sanchez warming up, I thought that we were likely going to see a pinch hitter for R.A. Dickey unless the Blue Jays went 1-2-3. They didn't. After a Valencia fly out, Josh Thole showed off his almost-to-the-warning-track power, hitting the ball hard for a ground rule double, Munenori Kawasaki then followed up with a game-tying RBI double to the left-centre field gap. But, as mentioned above, Dickey was allowed to strikeout for himself for some reason.

Luckily for John Gibbons, the offense stepped up by continuing the rally with two outs against reliever Zach Duke. Kawasaki scored when Jonathan Lucroy dropped a Ryan Braun throw home on a Jose Reyes single. Melky Cabrera followed with a single to bring up Bautista. After a double steal, Joey Bats slammed a three-run homer to the Brewers' bullpen to make it 7-3 Toronto.

The Brewers got two runs back in the bottom half of the inning when Jean Segura legged out a bunt, just beating out a fantastic off-balanced throw by Dickey before Carlos Gomez destroyed a Dickey knuckleball, sending it to the second deck for a two-run homer. Aaron Sanchez came into the game in relief and got a quick out by grabbing a bouncer over his head.

The Blue Jays flirted with danger in the bottom of the 8th when Brett Cecil let two Brewers on around an out, but then Dustin McGowan came in to induce Jonathan Lucroy to ground into an inning-ending 1-6-3 double play.

With two outs in the top of the ninth with a 7-5 Blue Jays lead, Ryan Braun slid in an attempt to catch a shallow flyball off the bat of Encarnacion but it bounced out of his glove for a single. Marcus Stroman entered the game on his fifth pinch-running appearance right before Colby Rasmus homered to almost dead centre to make it a 9-5 game. Stroman scored the first run of his career, joining a select club of Blue Jays pitchers who have scored a run.

The home run eliminated the save situation for Casey Janssen but gave the Blue Jays a nice cushion going into the ninth. Janssen wrapped up the Toronto victory with a 1-2-3 ninth, striking out two in his inning of work.

The victory was just Toronto's fifth in August, and the nine runs scored was the most since the 14-1 victory over the Red Sox on July 28.

via FanGraphs.com

Jays of the Day! Jose Reyes (+.220 WPA), Jose Bautista (+.180), Dustin McGowan (+.174), and Munenori Kawasaki (+.141). I will also give a JoD to Colby Rasmus (+.042) for that two-run home run that gave the Jays two insurance runs.

Suckage Jays: R.A. Dickey (-.249 pitching, -.125 hitting). Brett Cecil (-.088) gets one too because that inning scared me.

The Blue Jays get over 48 hours off now with an off day tomorrow and an evening game on Friday. They will be back home to face the Rays at 7:07 pm (don't look now, the Rays are just three games behind the Blue Jays and Yankees) with today's pinch runner facing the happy face illustrator (Drew Smyly). Jamie Campbell notes that Friday's game will be the Blue Jays' 6000th regular season game in franchise history since their founding in 1977. The franchise as a 2967-3029-3 record (.495 winning percentage).

Since there is no Blue Jays baseball Thursday night, if you are in Toronto you should consider coming out to the sixth PITCH Talks, which will feature Shi Davidi, Sid Seixerio, Andrew Stoeten, Stacey May Fowles, Jeremy Taggart, Erin Valois, and Jenn Smith. Left Field Brewery will be there to serve beer and if you use the discount code "Maris" you get $5 off admission (ie. a free beer!). Hope to see many of you there. For those of you who choose not to come, you should tune into Ben Wagner on Bisons.com as Dan Norris and the Buffalo Bisons face the RailRiders at 7:05 pm at Coca-Cola Field.

The GameThread had 843 comments, JaysCraze was the big winner. Great job.

Sweep!

pre game

Today's Lineups

game

I have never had as much fun during a game while simultaneously not paying attention as I had during this one. This game was one big LOL and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Usually when I am not paying attention, the Cardinals are losing and that isn't fun, but this game they took the lead and it would have to be pried from their cold, dead hands.

It almost was, but that is beside the point.

Jon Jay has turned himself into a one man wrecking crew, except of course, with an ISO under .100, he wrecks with like, a sledgehammer, rather than a bull dozer or whatever wrecking crews use. Small, calculated destruction right in the weakest parts of the opposing team. It does not knock the structure down right away, but weakens it, slowly and painfully until the final, decisive blow is struck. Finally, finally we were treated to seeing him and his .378 OBP at the top of the order and he did not disappoint. He began the game where he left it last night, with a HBP that followed a Matt Carpenter double (who is no slouch himself and just received his second Heart and Hustle Award nomination in as many years). The Cardinals would allow Cueto to wiggle out of trouble (like a snake), but this was not a precursor for what was to come.

Jay would get back to work in the third inning, lining a single to left field and scoring on a Matt Holliday monster double. But Jon Jay would not leave the scoring there. In the fifth inning he pumped out another single, this one of the infield variety with two outs. From there he would score when Jhonny Peralta delivered the knockout punch, a double, that also scored Matt Holliday who was hit by a pitch and Matt Adams who walked (no seriously, he did). With a Carpenter sac fly in the sixth, the Cardinals extended the lead to 5. The bloodthirsty Jay, still not satisfied, slapped another single scoring his centerfield brethren, Peter Bourjos, who doubled in Daniel Descalso just before to round out the scoring.

At this point, I was completely pleased as punch... too pleased. When things started going wrong in the ninth, I just knew in my heart it was the GOB humbling me for being so smug. The message was received after the Reds, with help from defensive blunders by Kolten Wong and the mighty Jon Jay, plated three runs off Carlos Martinez. Magical Trevor Rosenthal came in to get the SAVE™ and was successful, but only after walking the bases loaded, briging the tying run to the plate.

All this commentary and I haven't even spake a word of Lance Lynn. If Jay was a sledgehammer, Lynn was a wrecking ball. His fastball command was sharp, his sweat glistened like condensation running down a cold glass of ice tea on a long, hot summer day. If it were not for a fifty-eight or so minute rain delay after the seventh inning, Lynn might have pitched a complete game shutout. He was dominant. He was, dare I say, sexy.

post game

LIL SCOOTER'S PLAYER OF THE GAME:

You are all dying to know who it will be, I know it. Was it the scrappy and pesky Jay of Centre, who was on base four times with with two runs scored and one RBI on two hits and his MLB leading 16th hit by pitch? Baseball is fickle, my friends, and while Jay's performance was honorable, his WPA of .065 is no match for the robust and strong Mountain of man that is Lance Lynn. Lynn struck out five while giving up four hits and zero runs, good for a .255 WPA (.317 pitching, -.062 hitting). Cherish this award Lance - you have earned it.

Source: FanGraphs

TWEET/GAMETHREAD COMMENT OF THE GAME:

Twitter exploded with Jhonny Cueto-isms. While some people complained, I, on the other hand, have never been more proud in my life. If you are interested, you can check out my twitter feed for some of them - I retweeted most of my favorites.

Johnny Cueto always takes food out of the microwave before the time hits zero, but never presses the clear/reset button.

— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) August 21, 2014

BONUS JUSTIN MASTERSON IS SO ADORABLE TWEET:

(Waino and Wacha are pretty darn adorable too, and in sync, even.)

JUSTIN MASTERSON, YOU ADORABLE MAN. RT: "@AnnieMcGuire5: I'm in love with this team https://t.co/0X67UbRAqa"

— Heather Simon (@lil_scooter93) August 21, 2014

With the Brewers loss today the Cards are now 1.5 games back in the Central. Ussssss.

The Cards hit the road to take on the Phillies. Adam Wainwright gets the call against Kyle Kendrick. Game time is 6:05pm CST.

Today's lessons include Lucroy for MVP, bullpen life, and some reflections.

Yesterday's Results

The Brewers had the day off.

Cram Session

From BCB

• The Brewers games against interleague teams finished on Wednesday, and Noah notes that the Brewers went 11-9 in interleague play this year.

Jonathan Lucroy for MVP

• Jonathan Lucroy will get attention in the NL MVP vote this year. One of the parts of his game, his pitch framing, gets a lot of attention, but Dave Cameron wonders how much that should really play into the NL MVP vote.
• Meanwhile, on Brewers.com, Adam McCalvy puts together the full case for Jonathan Lucroy for NL MVP.

Pitching Notes

• Matt Garza may not be an ace, but his deal is looking like a good one for the Brewers. Nick Michalski of The Brewers Bar looks at his deal and similar deals that starting pitchers received this offseason.
• Life in the bullpen can be stressful. The pitchers there have their own practices to manage it, and Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel looks at how these players handle the stress.
• Mike Fiers has been pitching for his role in the Brewers rotation both this season and next. Genaro C. Armas of the Associated Press analyzes the impact that Fiers has had for the Brewers.
• Tom Gorzelanny has some advice for Jim Henderson after his surgery: Be patient.
• Steven Jewell of Reviewing the Brew has a profile on Wily Peralta.

Other Notes

• David S. Grant of Reviewing the Brew predicts how the remaining schedule will play out for the Brewers.
• When Hank the Ballpark Pup became a part of the Brewers, you knew this day was coming. Yesterday, Hank finally met his namesake, Hank Aaron.
• Tim Dillard posted some reflections on his baseball career on Next Level Ballplayer.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• The list of Brewers players that will play in the Arizona Fall League is starting to take shape. Yesterday, Nick Ramirez of Huntsville tweeted that he will play in the league.
• Michael Trzinski of Reviewing the Brew continues to look at the best teams in Brewers farm history with the 1986 El Paso Diablos.
• After a rough start following his promotion to Nashville, Taylor Jungmann has become a very solid pitcher for the Sounds. Teddy Cahill of MLB.com notes that Jungmann won his fourth straight decisionwith six scoreless innings on Thursday.

Division Update

• Braves 8. Reds 0
• Cubs 2, Giants 1
• Giants 5, Cubs 3

This Weekend's Division Games

• Cardinals @ Phillies
  Friday: Adam Wainwright vs. Kyle Kendrick - 6:05 pm
  Saturday: Shelby Miller vs. David Buchanan - 6:05 pm
  Sunday: Justin Masterson vs. Jerome Williams - 12:35 pm
• Braves @ Reds
  Friday: Mike Minor vs. Mat Latos - 6:10 pm
  Saturday: Ervin Santana vs. Mike Leake - 6:10 pm
  Sunday: Aaron Harang vs. Alfredo Simon - 12:10 pm
• Orioles @ Cubs
  Friday: Kevin Gausman vs. Jake Arrieta - 1:20 pm
  Saturday: Bud Norris vs. Kyle Hendricks - 1:20 pm
  Sunday: Miguel Gonzalez vs. Tsuyoshi Wada - 1:20 pm

This Weekend's Action

The Brewers and Pirates face off in a three-game series over the weekend. Here are the starting pitcher matchups:

Friday: Jeff Locke vs. Yovani Gallardo - 7:10 pm
Saturday: Edinson Volquez vs. Wily Peralta - 6:10 pm
Sunday: Vance Worley vs. Mike Fiers - 1:10 pm

What do different teams in the NL Central need to reach the playoffs? Let's take a quick look.

We're in the last month and a half of the regular season now. The playoff push is in full swing, and while some teams are thriving under the pressure, others are faltering. Looking at the NL Central, this has become very clear.

Entering today, the Brewers still have the lead in the NL Central, but it's the closest race in the National League (and tied with the AL Central for the closest race in baseball) with only 1.5 games separating the Brewers from the second place St. Louis Cardinals. After the Cardinals, though, a big gap has formed because of two losing streaks.

Just ten days ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates had moved into second in the division at 64-55, were 1.5 games behind the Brewers, and had a 67% chance of making the postseason (according to Baseball Prospectus). After that, they lost seven in a row before stopping their skid with a comeback win on Wednesday. In those ten days, their playoff chances dropped to 22%.

The Cincinnati Reds have had an even rougher road. On July 11, they were 50-43, 1.5 games out of first place, and had a 52% chance at the postseason. Since then, they are 11-24 in their last 35 games, and their playoff odds have dropped to 1%. They are currently in the middle of a six game losing streak, and are basically out of the playoff picture now. Of course, there's still a chance until that elimination number is 0.

What does each team need to do to make the playoffs now? Around BCB, we generally talk about the 90 win mark, and how that is generally seen as the mark to make the playoffs. As of today, here's how the NL Central teams need to perform to reach that mark:

Brewers: 19-16
Cardinals: 21-15
Pirates: 25-10
Reds: 29-5
Cubs: 35-0

The Brewers are on pace to hit that mark now. Cardinals are a little behind but can still make it. Pirates have work to do, but still have a chance (especially if other teams falter towards the end). Meanwhile, it's obvious from this that the Reds and Cubs have little to no shot at it.

For further perspective, note that there are only about 11 series remaining this season for each team. Looking at it that way, it's a little easier to see what each team needs to do. Brewers & Cardinals can each lose a series or two and still be fine. Pirates need to win every series (and sweep one or two as well) to reach that mark.

However, that's just for the division and a probable guarantee at the postseason. In reality, the mark for making the postseason will be a little lower than that. Looking at the second place team in the wild card race (the San Francisco Giants), they are on pace for 86 wins right now. To match that, here's what each team would have to do:

Brewers: 15-20
Cardinals: 17-19
Pirates: 21-14
Reds: 25-9
Cubs: 31-4

That looks a little better in terms of what a team can accomplish. Brewers and Cardinals are fine as long as they play at least .500 the rest of the way (or even a little under). Pirates need to get on a winning streak, but can still afford to lose a series or two. Even the Reds still have a shot, but need to start winning now. Of course, there's much less of a playoff guarantee at 86 wins, but that's a much more obtainable mark.

There's one interesting quirk in the remaining schedule for the division, and that is the games remaining against the other division teams. Every team still has a home series and road series remaining against each of the other teams in the division. This equals around 25 games remaining for each division team against division opponents. That can also reshape the remainder of the race.

With a month and a half left to play, there's still a lot that can happen. It's always possible that a team could come from nowhere to make an amazing run and make the playoffs. However, looking at the standings as of today, some teams have an easier road ahead, and others have a harder one.

The Brewers have won 10 of 13 games against the Pirates this year. Is there any reason to believe that's going to change for this series?

The Pirates have been having a rough go of things lately. It wasn't that long ago they were second in the NL Central knocking on the Brewers door. Now they're 6 games back and have lost 7 of their last 10. Sure they got Gerrit Cole back, but he's not pitching this series. Yes, they got Andrew McCutchen back, but he hasn't had a hit since returning (only 2 games) suggesting perhaps it was too soon.

This is an offense that had struggled to score runs sans McCutchen. The fact that they brought him off the disabled list so soon reeks of desperation. However, if he's not 100% by a significant margin and he cannot be an offensive boon, then the season might be over for the Pirates.

Of course that's not to suggest they're entirely bereft of offensive threats. Russell Martin (135 wRC+) is their second best hitter and surprisingly Josh Harrison (132 wRC+) is still hanging around. Neil Walker (129 wRC+) continues to be underrated. Travis Snider (127 wRC+) and Starling Marte (121 wRC+) are solid as well.

With a healthy Andrew McCutchen one could reasonably argue the Pirates offense is a tick better than the Brewers. He's the linchpin though. If they can get him going I think they can hang around the playoff discussion. Unless they get really lucky I don't see them winning the NL Central. Six games is a huge gap this late in the season. That doesn't mean they can't help the Cardinals secure the top spot though.

Fortunately for the Brewers the Pirates bullpen has been a disaster. They've struggled so much they traded for Ernesto Frieri and John Axford. As a Pirate, Frieri has a 10.13 ERA. Axford has a 0,00 ERA, but he's also only pitched 2.2 innings thus far. Mark Melancon is still excellent though. Tony Watson has been solid too. After those two you're looking at mediocre to bad relievers. Point is, even if the Pirates have a late lead, don't give up hope. Unless Mark Melancon comes in that is.

Friday, August 22nd 7:10 pm CT: Yovani Gallardo vs Jeff Locke

Locke is a perfectly mediocre pitcher. He's basically the definition of a solid number 4 pitcher last year and this year. He's going to give you around 30 starts with a decent ERA despite lacking really good stuff. He's currently been able to maintain a 3.73 ERA despite having worse than average K% and BAA. His BB% is well below average though and that's helped his WHIP to skirt below league average. He also gets a solid amount of ground balls. The first time the Brewers faced him this year he held them to 1 run in 7 innings. However, despite his last outing being good, he's not been terribly effective lately. He had a 5 game stretch where he gave up 3+ runs in each game.

Of note for the Brewers: Locke is a lefty so the Brewers will be using their all RHH lineup.

Saturday, August 23rd 6:10 pm CT: Wily Peralta vs Edinson Volquez

Just at a glance, it seems the only big change in Edinson Volguez this year is the inclusion of a knuckle curve. He still throws his other pitches with roughly the same frequency and velocity. In fact, if you consolidated his regular and knuckle curves, his pitch usage would basically look the same. However, he's having his best season (by ERA) since 2008. It's probably no wonder ZiPS and Steamer believe his ERA is going to balloon in the final weeks of the season (4.60 ERA and 4.50 ERA RoS respectively). I have no idea if those projection systems incorporate changes to pitch mix so I'm not sure if I trust them here.

What I do know is Volquez has a below average K%, an above average BB%, and a better than average BAA. His WHIP is about league average. He has a solid GB% and a below 1.00 HR/9.

Of note for the Brewers: The Brewers have faced Volquez three times this year and have failed to score more than 2 runs each time. They did just face another knuckler in R.A. Dickey so maybe that will help. Fourth times the charm?

Sunday, August 24th 1:10 pm CT: Mike Fiers vs Vance Worley

Somehow Vance Worley is the best (by ERA and FIP) starter the Brewers will face this weekend. I still don't think he's very good. Below average K%, way better than average BB%, below average BAA, better than average WHIP. Solid but not overwhelming GB% and HR/9. He's the definition of a junkballer. He has a fastball that sits around 88 mph and 6 pitches in total (including a knuckle curve). Worley vs Fiers may very well be the premiere weird baseball pitching match-up of the ages.

Of note for the Brewers: The Brewers have faced Worley three times ever, and have scored at least 3 runs each time.

Conclusion

I don't like the Pirates pitching staff. I don't think they're quite awful, but I'd be pretty bummed out if it was the Brewers' rotation. Based on no real evidence or facts, I'm convinced Andrew McCutchen returned way too soon and I'm not confident in his ability to hit a ball. I think the Pirates are on their way out. The Brewers ought to be able to win the series.

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link!

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

This homestand features divisional rivals.

Dates and times:

Brewers: September 1 (1:20), September 2 (7:05), September 3 (7:05)

Pirates: September 5 (1:20), September 6 (3:05), September 7 (1:20)

As always, face value only for tickets. If comments to this post are closed, email me and I'll reopen them.

Wily Peralta relies on his fastball as much as anyone, but unlike last year, it's been his most effective pitch.

Wily Peralta is quietly having a terrific and frankly underrated sophomore season for the Milwaukee Brewers. After a pedestrian rookie year in 2013, Peralta has lowered his ERA by over half a run and has dropped his xFIP from 4.13 to 3.66. His FIP is still relatively high, though, meaning luck has been on Peralta's side for most of the year. Nonetheless, he was tied for the team lead in ERA entering Saturday night. How? Because his fastball has become a successful pitch.

Peralta has always had a power fastball, using both a four-seam fastball and a sinker according to Brooks Baseball, but they were by all accounts useless during his rookie campaign. His fastball was worth -14.4 runs above average and batters hit .348 against it. To make matters worse, he threw it at a 66.7% clip, which was the eighth-highest rate in baseball.

Through 25 starts in 2014, Peralta is actually throwing his fastball more—67.1% of the time—but because he's locating it better and forcing more whiffs, its effectiveness has been enhanced. Hitters are batting only .242 against it, with Peralta limiting them to a .253 BABIP. His go-to pitch is now worth 3.8 runs above average; that's a tremendous turnaround from a year ago, and he knows it.

"For me it's all about location," Peralta said. "When I locate my fastball down in the zone, it doesn't matter what the count is. That's my best pitch."

Let's start by looking at his fastball location in 2013 (left) and 2014 (right):

As you can see, Peralta has really started to command the bottom half and outer edge of the zone compared to last season. That's allowed him to get more batted balls on the ground. Take a look at his ground balls per balls in play against his four-seam fastball in 2013. Now here's 2014:

Peralta has been substantially more consistent in getting ground balls via his four-seamer this season. He's hovered around 40 ground balls per month and hasn't had a major drop-off, like he did in 2013. His ground ball percentage on his fastball has gone from 6.54% in 2013 to 9.73% in 2014, due in large part to the fact that he's keeping the ball down.

Another factor in Peralta's fastball rebirth is an increase in velocity. Up from 94.6 mph, Peralta's 95.7 mph average on his fastball is only exceeded by three qualified starters who, I might add, are having splendid seasons of their own -- Yordano Ventura (96.9), Garrett Richards (96.3) and Nathan Eovaldi (95.7). Very rarely does a hitter pull the ball against Peralta's hard stuff.

Even though it's clear Peralta's fastball is more effective than it was at the beginning of his career, home runs continue to be the bug that bites him. He gave up 19 home runs last year in 32 starts and has already topped that this year with 22. Fifteen of those (three on Saturday night) have come off his two fastballs. This is why his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and xFIP.

But when Peralta locates his hard stuff, which is something he's done all year, he's a very good middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. And at 25 years of age, he still has a few more seasons to hone his skills before reaching his prime.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.

Justin Schultz is a contributor for Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @JSchu23.

Today's lessons include the games over the weekend, easing blackout restrictions, and September callup possibilities.

This Weekend's Results

Pirates 8, Brewers 3

The Brewers struck fast with two runs in the first, but the Pirates followed that up with three runs in the second inning and single runs in the third, fourth, and fifth innings. The Brewers defense didn't help, allowing three errors leading to five unearned runs.

Pirates 10, Brewers 2

It was a game of missed opportunities for the Brewers. After taking a 2-0 lead, the Brewers couldn't tack on any runs despite 12 hits. The Pirates also had 12 hits, but turned that into 10 runs. Wily Peralta started well but just collapsed starting in the fourth inning, and the Brewers couldn't make a comeback.

Brewers 4, Pirates 3

It was another familiar start to this game. The Brewers took a 2-0 lead, then gave it up as the Pirates scored two in the top of the second. However, this time, the Brewers got the lead right back in the bottom of the second, and held on to it. Mike Fiers allowed a two-run home run, but was solid beyond that as he pitched seven innings. Francisco Rodriguez allowed a solo home run and a walk to make it tense late, but finished the game for the win.

Cram Session

Articles from BCB

• Which minor league players could end up on the major league roster in September? Noah looks at the possible candidates to be called up in September.
• The blackout restrictions could change soon. Over the weekend, a report came out that MLB is looking at easing the restrictions on blacked out games.
• What do different teams in the division need to do to make the playoffs? On Friday, we looked at what teams need to do over the last month if they want to be playoff bound.

Other Notes

• Wily Peralta has improved his fastball over the season this year. Justin Schultz of Beyond the Box Score looks at the change that Peralta has made with his fastball.
• Caitlin Swieca of MLB.com notes that after losing a challenge on Friday, the Brewers are making another inquiry about why their challenge was upheld.
• In the Saturday notebook for Brewers.com, Caitlin Swieca notes that the Brewers haven't talked about their plans for September callups yet, Matt Garza is making progress, and Ryan Braun's struggles at the plate.
• Tom Haudricourt of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel looks at the opportunity that Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson have now, and the upcoming decision that the Brewers have coming.
• Mike Fiers fell out of favor after a rough year, but worked his way back into the Brewers plans with a good season in the minors. Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has a look at the journey Mike Fiers has gone through.
• Tim Dillard talks about what happens with baseball players when the season ends.

Minor League Update

Playoff Update

• Nashville Sounds - Currently tied with Memphis Redbirds for playoff spots. Eight games remaining, last day of regular season September 1.
  
• Huntsville Stars - Clinched first-half playoff spot. Seven games remaining, last day of regular season September 1.
• Brevard County Manatees - Five games out of playoff spot, elimination number is three. Seven games remaining, last day of regular season August 31.
• Wisconsin Timber Rattlers- Two games ahead of Peoria Chiefs for a playoff spot. Eight games remaining, last day of regular season September 1.
• DSL Brewers - Eliminated from playoff contention. Season has ended.
• Helena Brewers - Six and a half games out of a playoff spot, elimination number is seven. Thirteen games remaining, last day of regular season September 4.
• AZL Brewers - Can make playoffs if they finish second in division standings, currently one and a half games ahead. Five games remaining, last day of regular season August 28.

News & Notes

• Could prospect David Goforth be a closer? Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com looks at the potential of Goforth as a future closer.

Division Update

• Cardinals @ Phillies
  Friday:Phillies 5, Cardinals 4
  Saturday:Cardinals 6, Phillies 5
  Sunday:Phillies 7, Brewers 1
• Braves @ Reds
  Friday:Braves 3, Reds 1
  Saturday:Reds 1, Braves 0
  Sunday:Reds 5, Braves 3
• Orioles @ Cubs
  Friday:Cubs 4, Orioles 1
  Saturday:Cubs 7, Orioles 2
  Sunday:Cubs 2, Orioles 1

Today's Division Games

• Cardinals (John Lackey) @ Pirates (Francisco Liriano) - 6:05 pm
• Reds and Cubs have the day off.

Today's Action

The Brewers make their last road trip outside of the Midwest this week. They start with a three-game series in San Diego. Kyle Lohse faces off against Eric Stults in the first game of the series. First pitch is at 9:10 pm, and Matthew DeFranks of MLB.com has the preview.

A strong offensive performance let the Brewers cruise to a victory late Monday night.

W: Lohse, 12-7

L: Stults, 6-14

HR: Braun (17), Ramirez (14)

Fangraphs WPA Box Score

MLB Box

The Brewers scored 10 runs for the first time since the All-Star break and beat the Padres 10-1.

Kyle Lohse looked a bit rusty in the first couple of innings in his first start back from an ankle injury but really rounded in to form and turned in a quality outing. He walked 2 in the first but got a pickoff and flyout to escape the jam. In the second, Alex Amarista drove in a run for the Padres with a triple, the only one they would get against Lohse. Amarista was thrown out at home, which was confirmed after a lengthy review involving the new catcher collision rule. Lohse finished with 6 innings pitched, giving up 4 hits, 4 walks with 5 strikeouts.

The offense, meanwhile, was firing on all cylinders. Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and Aramis Ramirez each had 3 hits. Braun and Ramirez hit a home run each, and Ramirez also had a double (leaving him a triple short of a cycle). Rickie Weeks and Khris Davis also had RBI doubles.

In the first, Braun was involved in a strange play at first base when he collided with Padres 1st baseman Jake Goebbert, who was trying to field a poor throw. He apparently bruised his left quad on the play and was removed in the 6th in favor of Gerardo Parra. Adam McCalvy reports that the team does not think it's serious, and he did hit his home run after sustaining the injury so the move was likely one of caution with the big lead.

Today's lessons include a late night win, looking to September, and power rankings.

Yesterday's Results

Brewers 10, Padres 1

If you needed to get to sleep early last night, the Brewers were kind to you. They took an early lead and just kept building on it. It looked rough early as Kyle Lohse struggled through the first two innings, giving up a run, but settled down to pitch six solid innings. Meanwhile, Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and Aramis Ramirez each had three hits, and Ramirez and Gerardo Parra each had three RBI.

Cram Session

Yesterday's BCB Articles

• Jean Segura has been having a rough season, but is there a better option than him out there? Noah looks at the possibilities for the Brewers if they decided to find a shortstop for the stretch run.
• Last week, Noah looked through the likely September callups in the minors. Yesterday, Derek followed that up with a look at some unlikely callups.
• Meanwhile, Derek also has a preview of the Brewers-Padres series.

The Stretch Run

• September callups are less than a week away, and predictions are starting to come out on who will get called up. The Brewer Nation has a list of predictions for callups this year.
• Some people consider a Wild Card spot a consolation prize if the Brewers falter and don't win the division, but others see it as a situation to avoid. Enrique Bakemeyer of The Brewers Bar breaks down why making the postseason as a Wild Card would be a disappointment.

Power Rankings

• SI.com dropped the Brewers two spots to #7.
• MLB.com has the Brewers at #7.
• ESPN.com kept the Brewers steady at #7.
• FOX Sports dropped the Brewers to #8.
• Jonah Keri of Grantland put the Brewers at #8, down three spots.

Other Notes

• Ryan Braun left last night's game early with a bruised quad. It appears to have been precautionary, and he should be ready for tonight's game.
• The rotation decision is looming for when Matt Garza returns, but Jimmy Nelson may be making it easier for the team. Yesterday, Jimmy Nelson said that he would be open to moving to the bullpen once Garza comes back.
• Can Mike Fiers maintain his success? Adam Wieser of Disciples of Uecker analyzes Mike Fiers' success so far and what he needs to do to maintain it.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• Adam McCalvy notes that the Brewers have designated outfield as their priority position in the Arizona Fall League, and top prospect Tyrone Taylor is in play to be on the team.
• Marcus Young of Miller Park Prospects has a detailed look at playoff possibilities for the different Brewers affiliates.
• Nashville Sounds first baseman Matt Clark was named PCL player of the week.

Division Update

• Cardinals 3, Pirates 2
• Reds and Cubs had the day off.

Today's Division Games

• Cardinals (Lance Lynn) @ Pirates (Gerrit Cole) - 6:05 pm
• Cubs (Travis Wood) @ Reds (Johnny Cueto) - 6:10 pm

Today's Action

The series against the Padres continues this afternoon. Jimmy Nelson faces off against Padres ace Tyson Ross in the second game of the series. First pitch is at 9:10 pm, and Cody Ulm of MLB.com has the preview.

(Did you know that according to a random number generator, 97% of people who play Prognostikeggers enjoy it? Give it a try and see if you're one of them.)

Tyson Ross will take the mound tonight one game removed from his fantastic eight-inning effort against the Dodgers in which he was unfortunately hung with the loss. He struck out eight and allowed only four hits at Dodger Stadium in a marvelous pitching duel with the 2011 SB Nation Cy Young Award Co-Winner, Clayton Kershaw, and was in line for the victory thanks to a single run of support by the Padres offense. But he made one mistake that led to a two-run homer and the loss. While some people would refuse to give deserved credit to that outing because "he can't make mistakes like that against someone like CLAYTON KERSHAW" or because you don't think pitching is valuable if the hitters aren't there to back it up or something ridiculous like that, the fact is that Tyson was robbed of a(n) [albeit meaningless] win to add to his stats because the Friars offense couldn't get their act together.

And that Padres offense has continued to stutter at the plate lately. They still sit at the bottom of the league in runs scored, OPS, and almost every other offensive stat. In their last five games, they've gone 1-4 while batting an abysmal .171 with an OPS of just .472. They've also struck out 45 times in that stretch - an average of once per inning.

Hopefully the offense can get something even remotely encouraging going against rookie Jimmy Nelson. In eight major league starts this season, Nelson is 2-4 with a 4.15 ERA. He's coming off his shortest appearance in his last six, going 5 2/3 innings and allowing four runs on nine hits. This will be his first time facing San Diego. But unlike Ross, Nelson will have one of the better offenses in the league to back him up.

See how our Padres fare tonight in game 2 against the Brewers, which gets underway at 7:10 PT.

And don't forget to check out today's SB Nation Fantasy Baseball league on FanDuel. It's $2 to join and first prize is $3,000. You can join at this link.

It just wasn't Jimmy Nelson's night.

Winning Pitcher: Tyson Ross

Losing Pitcher: Jimmy Nelson

SV: Joaquin Benoit

HR: Abraham Almonte (2)

Win Expectancy Chart

Boxscore

Jimmy Nelson is a very good young pitcher. On this night he was a very good young pitcher that got off to a rough start. In the first inning he allowed a solo home run to Abraham Almonte. Things didn't really get frustrating until the third inning. Opposing pitcher Tyson Ross led off with a double. Almonte drove him in with a single. Then a botched double play attempt left runners at first and second for Yasmani Grandal who would drive in another run with a single. A ground out would drive in another run before the inning ended giving the Padres a commanding 4-0 lead.

Tyson Ross is also a very good young pitcher, only he did not get off to a rough start. While the Brewers (Khris Davis) did get a hit in the second inning, they didn't put up much of a fight until the fourth. Jonathan Lucroy led off with a double and reached third on an error. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez followed up with two back to back strikeouts. Ross made them look silly. Thankfully Scooter Gennett was in no mode for silliness. He drove in Lucroy with a laser shot that resulted in a ground rule double to right-center. Davis drew a walk which ended with a passed ball allowing Gennett to advance to third. For some unfathomable reason Davis decided it would be a good idea to attempt a steal. Inning ended when he was tagged out by a mile.

Marco Estrada took over for Nelson in the sixth inning. He sat down the Padres in order. He also pitched around a base hit in the seventh inning.

Tyson Ross got one out in the seventh inning before being removed after walking Scooter Gennett. Nick Vincent came on in relief. He immediately ended the inning by inducing a ground ball for a double play off the bat of Khris Davis.

Kevin Quackenbush pitched the eighth inning for the friars. He was able to pitch around a base hit by Jean Segura.

Tom Gorzelanny pitched the eighth inning for the beer makers. He was able to pitch around a walk, a single, and another walk.

The Brewers sent the heart of their order up to the plate in the ninth: Lucroy-Braun-Ramirez. Joaquin Benoit retired them in order.

The Brewers and Padres battle for the series win tomorrow as Yovani Gallardo takes on Odrisamer Despaigne. Start time is 8:10 pm CT.

Other Notes:

• After dropping the first game to the Cardinals, the Pirates take the second game thanks to a late inning 3-run HR by Ike Davis. So the silver lining is that the Brewers don't lose ground to the Cardinals.

Tyson Ross was the definition of a hard luck case in his last start, throwing a 4-hit, 2-run complete game while still taking a loss. Things went a little different tonight. Tyson wasn't nearly as dominating, but he still put up another in a very long streak of quality starts. In 6.1 innings, he allowed just a single run on 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out a solid six-pack of Brewers. And this time, he had help, as the Padres bats hit Jimmy Nelson for 4 runs in 5 innings. Offensively, the star of the show was Abraham Almonte. He went 2 for 3 with two RBI (one of them on a home run) and a walk.

Almonte gave his starter an early lead by slugging one into the right field stands in the first inning. But Tyson isn't one to let others do the hard work for him. After breaking up Clayton Kershaw's no-hitter during his last start, Tyson hit a leadoff double. Abe came back up with one out, and wanted to get his pitcher back on the bench to rest, so he hit an RBI single. That was just the start of a nice little rally. Seth Smith hit a grounder to second, but a perfect takeout slide and a rushed throw caused shortstop Jean Segura to drop the ball, leaving everybody safe. Continuing the theme of hitting everything to the right side of the field, Yasmani Grandal hammered an RBI single over the head of Ryan Braun (who went 0-4 tonight; just throwing that out there for some schadenfreude). That brought Jedd Gyorko up with Smith sitting on third. It wasn't the most spectacular RBI ever, but a fielder's choice brought the run in.

Tyson's only real struggle came in the top of the fourth. All that baserunning probably tired him out. A leadoff double by Jonathan Lucroy got extra dangerous when Rymer Liriano's fielding error let him reach third. He almost escaped without allowing a run, striking out Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez back to back. But Scooter Gennett (who actually got his nickname from Muppet Babies) hit a ground rule double to score the Brewers' lone run.

Nick Vincent took over after Ross gave up a one-out walk in the seventh. He only needed to face one batter, getting Khris Davis to ground into a double play. Kevin Quackenbush struck out the side in the eighth, and Joaquin Benoit sat Milwaukee down in order to wrap up a lovely little win.

Odrisamer Despaigne will try to win the series when he takes the mound tomorrow night. First pitch is at the unusual time of 6:10 PM, so set an alarm.

It was a slow night, with TheThinGwynn leading both comments (20) and recs (3).

It may be hard to believe, but one cannot really complain about Matheny's management of center field...

As Ben has made very clear through his terrific "Mathenaging" series, Mike Matheny has made some "questionable" decisions in his time as field manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, especially this season. From leaving starting pitchers in games too long to mishandling top prospects to allowing right-handed throwing Seth Maness face a left-handed hitter (Ike Davis) who has a career wRC+ of 61 (.197/.261/.318 slash line) versus left-handed pitchers in the eighth inning of a tie game during an intense pennant race (this thought is revisited at the end of the post), Matheny sure has made a mess of things at times. However, despite these blatant managerial miscues, Matheny has done at least one thing right in 2014, and that's his handling of the center field position.

Through 131 games, the position has been worth 3.8 fWAR for the Cardinals—fourth highest in the National League, predictably trailing reigning NL-MVP Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates, two-time All-Star Carlos Gomez and the Brewers, and a quality platoon of Drew Stubbs and Charlie Blackmon with the Rockies. 3.8 fWAR is also good enough for eighth best in all of baseball. That's pretty good game management if you ask me, especially considering the drastic differences in the skill sets of the players Matheny has to work with.

Jon Jay has been solid with the bat for the majority of his career, but there is a pretty significant drop-off in value when looking at his defense, particularly his arm. Peter Bourjos utilizes top-class speed and efficient routes to be one of the league's best defensive center fielders, but he leaves much to be desired with a bat in his hands. With only one player allowed to play center at any given moment and the fact that the fusing of two players' skill sets into one has not yet been perfected by science, tactical decisions must be made when it comes to playing time.

Well, so far in 2014, Jay has received 71 starts in center, Bourjos has received 54, and Randal Grichuk has received three. Jay, currently carrying a hot bat/butt/body, has received the bulk of the starts of late, but Bourjos hasn't been forgotten about because he has entered in the seventh inning or later (mainly as a defensive substitute) in nine games this month. According to Baseball-Reference, Bourjos has finished 35 games this season (after entering as a defensive replacement, pinch runner, or pinch hitter), and in 13 of these, he did not receive a single plate appearance.

At the plate, Bourjos is slashing .228/.292/.358 with a .289 wOBA and an 83 wRC+ (4.6 batting runs below average), and yet, he he has managed to be worth a more-than-respectable 1.4 fWAR. Why? The value attached to both his defense and his baserunning. According to Fangraphs, Bourjos has produced 2.2 baserunning runs above average and 8.3 defensive runs above average in 2014. Instead of burying Bourjos at the end of the bench for nine innings at a time, Matheny has utilized him in pinch running and defensive substitution situations—putting him in the best situations to maximize his value, especially given his inconsistent at bats.

Obviously, the value at the position comes from the players actually performing when given playing time, but at the same time, it cannot be ignored that Matheny has done a solid job at playing to his center fielders' respective strengths and has subsequently put them in positions to provide value to the club. Would center field's fWAR be higher if one or the other received 90-100% of the playing time? Maybe, but this is something we will never know for sure. In a season where the Cardinals have received less-than-stellar production from multiple positions—specifically right field (-1.8, 30th in MLB) and second base (0.6 fWAR, 20th in MLB)—we really shouldn't be complaining about a top ten position in terms of fWAR.

Finally, there are two things I'm fairly certain about...

Jay will consistently provide this:

While Bourjos will consistently do this:

*********

Completing a thought from the opening paragraph: If Matheny had turned to Randy Choate with Davis at the dish last night, would Clint Hurdle have countered with a right-handed bat (Jordy Mercer or Chris Stewart) off the bench? According to the latest from Jenifer Langosch, this appears to be Matheny's thinking:

"I trust Seth to get an out right there moreso than have Randy out there with a right-hander come in to face him. Any time we bring Randy in, we have to be, in my opinion, in a game-changing situation and extremely confident that that lefty is going to stay in there. And I've watched Clint too many times. I know exactly what he's going to do in those situations."

Davis has a career .204 ISO against right-handed pitchers and absolutely mauls right-handed sinkers (.243 ISO).—Maness’ signature pitch. Sure enough, Davis cranked the game-winning three-run homer on a hanging changeup of all pitches Maness decides to throw in that situation. Thus, Matheny can say what he wants about not wanting the Choate vs. RHB matchup (and that's actually understandable), but the matchup he stuck with was doomed from the start.

Our Padres will wrap up their series with the Brewers tonight and try to get their first series win since their sweep of the Rockies two weeks ago. Since then, they have failed to put together consecutive wins on the field, making it even harder for fans to watch them on a nightly basis.

But here we are. And tonight we'll look to Odrisamer Despaigne to try to help our team to that series win over first-place Milwaukee. Since going 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA over his first five starts, Despaigne has dropped off. In his last six, he's 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA. In his most recent start, he yielded four runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. He has pitched much better at Petco Park, however. In five games at home, he's posted a 2.45 ERA.

Unfortunately, Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has also excelled while pitching in San Diego. In four career outings at Petco, he is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA. And the road has been kind to him even moreso lately, as the righty is undefeated (5-0) with a 1.65 ERA in his last seven away from Miller Park.

The finale will be underway an hour earlier than originally scheduled tonight, so tune in at 6:10 PT to see if our Padres can get it done and send the Brewers home on the losing end.