Jimmy Nelson recovered from his rough start before the All-Star Break, pitching six innings and allowing three runs. It kept the Brewers even for most of the game, as they hit three solo home runs in the first few innings. Jonathan Lucroy ended up being the hero of the day, hitting two in the game, including a solo home run in the ninth to send the Brewers home winners.
Scooter Gennett left last night's game with a tight right quad, and is day to day for now. He's expected to be out of the starting lineup on Wednesday.
Clint Coulter got hit in the face by a pitch on Sunday, but he appears to have escaped any major injuries. Kevin Kimmes of Cream City Cables notes he is day-to-day for now.
Miller Park Prospects released their new top 40 prospects yesterday, and Brad Krause has a rundown of the list.
The Brewers go for the series sweep this afternoon against the Reds. They will send Kyle Lohse to the mound to try for the sweep, and Mike Leake will oppose for the Reds. First pitch is at 1:10 pm, and Manny Randhawa of MLB.com has the preview.
Jean Segura lit the NL Central on fire in 2013 while emerging as one of the game's best young talents. Unfortunately, his performance hasn't carried over into the first half of 2014. What's behind his steep drop-off in production at the plate?
*Note: this article was originally constructed just prior to the death of Segura's nine-month old son. Its publication was delayed two weeks due to the sensitivity of his family's personal tragedy. Our sincerest respects go out to the entire Segura family.
Jean Segura was excellent in 2013. After being traded from the Angels to the Brewers as part of the Zack Greinke trade, he survived his 2012 call-up and was a legitimate terror for opposing pitchers in his rookie season. But if you've followed his progress in his sophomore campaign, you're well aware that he's essentially fallen off a cliff through the first half of 2014. The question everyone wants to know is why?
In fact, perhaps we should have seen some of this coming. Take a look at how Segura's breakout 2013 progressed by month, measured by wRC+.
After a blazing hot start, Segura cooled as the season progressed. Some of that was likely fatigue as he played the most games of career in a single season (146), but there were other indicators that things might not hold up. His plate discipline wasn't terrible in the strikeout department, but it's never easy to succeed with a 4% walk rate. If anything, this might have told us that he didn't have a great idea of the strikezone. Still, one had to hope that his eye would improve because, after all, he was just 23-years old in his first full season.
Segura essentially made his living putting the ball in play and using his legs to do the rest. He did hit a ton of line drives early in the season, but that tapered off as spring progressed to summer. With his speed, however, one could see a very effective BABIP in his future even considering all of the grounders. As evidence, he finished second in 2013 in infield hits (38) behind his teammate Norichika Aoki. By keeping the ball on the ground, Segura was giving himself a chance to get on base and while we'd all like to see more line drives, he was still performing effectively.
What stood out to me most, however, was his spray chart. In an earlier piece I wrote here at Beyond the Box Score, I examined whether the infield shift was ruining baseball. Of course it's not, but in crunching some numbers, Segura was in a unique position. He led the majors in balls in play up the middle and the other way (center% + opposite%). And he led that category by a wide margin. Take a look for yourself.
When you think about it, center rate plus opposite rate on batted balls is just a fancy way of saying "not pulled rate." And yes, Segura pulled the ball less frequently than any other hitter in 2013. His up-the-middle approach wasn't necessarily a bad thing, but it might make him exploitable and certainly means that he's not pulling the ball with authority. Again, that doesn't mean he was bound to be terrible going forward, but having the ability to rip it down the line would potentially be beneficial.
Flip it forward to 2014 and we see a completely different profile.
Pull Rate
Center Rate
Opposite Rate
2013
17.3%
41.1%
23.1%
2014
32.4%
31.3%
25.3%
We can visually see this through his spray charts from each season, too.
2013
2014
Segura has vastly changed where he's hitting the ball. His batted ball types haven't changed dramatically, but the location of where those balls are going has. No longer is he slapping it the other way or just trying to go up the middle. Instead, he's been more balanced, which we might think would be a good thing, and maybe it is in the long run, but at the moment, it's not working. In fact, he's gone in an entirely different direction and is now pulling the ball more than anything else.
Has this been as a result to how he's being pitched? Yes and no. He's seeing a similar profile of pitches this year but the location of those pitches has changed somewhat.
2013
Hard
Breaking
Offspeed
66.1%
26.0%
7.9%
2014
Hard
Breaking
Offspeed
67.4%
23.4%
8.2%
Pitchers are throwing him inside more in 2014 and Segura has tried to take it where it's pitched. Unfortunately, he's struggling to make it count. After last season, it's no wonder the league adjusted and decided to see if he could handle pitches inside. To their benefit, it looks like he's still trying to figure it out.
The other issue worthy of mention is contact. Segura's contact profile has changed in 2014. He's seeing more pitches in the zone, likely because he's struggling, and he's responded by swinging more. While his zone swing rate has stayed the same, he's chasing out of the zone more frequently. He makes a lot of contact in the zone, but he's making less contact than before outside of it. Chasing more and making less contact is a bad recipe. Maybe it signals that he's pressing, but I think it's something else: poor pitch recognition.
Brooks Baseball classifies Segura's eye at the plate against fastballs as "exceptionally poor" and his eye against breaking pitches as "very poor." It appears that Segura struggles mightily to identify pitches and this likely leading to his declining plate discipline. This brings us full circle somewhat in that his walk rate has dipped from 4% to 3.6% in 2014. He didn't have any room to give in this department but has conceded it anyways. The swing-happy approach has its merits for a speedster like Segura, but if he can't recognize pitches, it's going to limit even the slappiest of approaches.
It would seem that Segura is having a tough time adjusting to the way pitchers are throwing him and he doesn't have the eye to make adjustments. He's still just 24, but he has a lot of work to do to get back to being a top-tier shortstop. Adjustments will have to be made and although part of that is in his swing's ability to handle pitches inside, the growth will be hampered if he can't refine his eye at the plate. Young players can change with coaching and experience and while the league adjusted to Segura after his breakout 2013, it's his turn to do the adjusting. Let's hope he can do it.
*Statistics and spray charts courtesy of FanGraphs, heat maps courtesy of Brooks Baseball
. . .
Jeff Wiser is a featured writer at Beyond the Box Score and co-author of Inside the 'Zona, an analytical look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. You can follow him on Twitter @OutfieldGrass24.
Today's lessons include a new draft pick, statistical analysis, and music selection.
Yesterday's Results
Brewers 5, Reds 1
Mark Reynolds went 3-for-4 with 3 RBI to break out of his slump, hitting two home runs in the process. It was more than enough to back Kyle Lohse, who pitched 6 2/3 innings and allowed only one run. The Brewers swept the series, holding the Reds to a total of 6 runs in the process.
The Brewers got the fourth pick in the first round of the competitive balance lottery.
Yesterday, the competitive balance lottery for the 2015 draft was held. The Brewers ended up getting the fourth pick in the first competitive balance round. This is big for the team for several reasons. The obvious reason is that it's an extra first round pick in the next draft. It also helps the team out for other reasons. The Brewers could trade the pick as part of a package to get a players, if they want. Even if they hold on to it, it will be extra money in the draft pool for next year that they could use. Regardless of what they do, it will help the team.
Jeremy Jeffress made his second Brewers debut yesterday, pitching a 1-2-3 inning to finish the game. Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker projects what Jeffress will do going forward.
We've heard plenty about the pitch-framing ability of Jonathan Lucroy. However, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs takes a minute to look at the victims of good pitch framing.
The Brewers start a four-game series against the Mets tonight. Game 1 features Matt Garza against Dillon Gee. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Matt Slovin of MLB.com has the preview.
Although it once looked like Milwaukee might just run away with the National League Central, its division lead has shrunk recently due to a prolonged slump prior to the All-Star break. A recent sweep of the Reds has opened up a little breathing room for the Brew Crew, but there are still some issues that the team needs to address if it plans on staying in first place through September.
The Brewers' hitting is their calling card, and Jonathan Lucroy continues to look like an MVP candidate with a .312/.382/.500 slash line to go with great defense and leadership behind the plate. Scotter Gennett has provided surprising production at the keystone, but he's currently day-to-day with a quad injury. Then there's Jean Segura, who has struggled mightily this season after a incredible breakout 2013. Beyond the Box Score thinks that the shortstop should consider going back to not pulling the ball.
Even with Segura mired in a season-long slump, however, the Brewers score plenty of runs. Preventing them has been another story. Kyle Lohse has been terrific at the top of the rotation, but the rest of the starters have been average at best, and Marco Estrada was giving up so many home runs that he had to be shifted to the bullpen. It would have been fascinating to see if Estrada, who has given up 27 long balls in just 114.2 innings, could challenge Bert Blyleven's MLB record of 50 home runs allowed in a single season (1986), but the Mets will have to settle for hoping that Jimmy Nelson -- the top prospect was called up to take Estrada's spot in the rotation -- isn't yet ready for the big show.
The Brewers were once carried to the postseason by a deadline trade for CC Sabathia. Could a similar deal be in the works to keep this version of Milwaukee in front of its rivals? In a division as competitive as the NL Central, sitting still at the trade deadline could be a risky proposition.
Who are these guys?
For all the riches that the Brewers have on offense this season, they have still not found a suitable replacement for Prince Fielder at first base. Right now the position is being "filled" by a platoon made up of over-the-hill veterans Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay.
Reynolds, I was surprised to learn, is only 30 years old. He seems so much older because five years ago he was one of the most exciting players in baseball. In 2009 with the Diamondbacks, Reynolds was a three-true-outcomes star with 44 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 76 walks, and a whopping 223 strikeouts. He struck out less and walked more in 2010, but a deteriorating BABIP and less power led to "only" 32 home runs and an anemic .198 batting average. That winter, Reynolds was traded to the Orioles, and he's bounced around a lot since then between teams who need a quick injection of home run power. He still walks a lot, but consistently low BABIPs have made him more of an out machine than he was in his glory years.
Overbay is a guy who is cool to look at in a Brewers uniform because he originally broke out with the team in the mid-2000s. In his prime, he was the antithesis of Reynolds. Overbay was the rare player who walked a lot without striking out a ton. The only thing holding him back from being a superstar player was a modest power stroke that saw him max out at 22 dingers in 2006 with Toronto. Like Reynolds, on the other hand, Overbay has seen his BABIP and power decrease as he grows older. As a 37-year-old with an isolated power of .109, he's only very useful to teams like this year's Brewers and last year's Yankees that have no other options at first base. Overbay has had a really nice career, though.
Neither horrible nor amazing, Garza is your typical fastball/slider starter who has been bouncing around the majors for a while now. Save for one awesome summer with the Cubs in 2011, Garza has always been good enough to fit in the middle of a rotation, but never great enough to be an ace. ERAs between 4.00 and 3.50 are the norm with him, and he'll sometimes tease with a brilliant start before getting slapped back to reality. That has been the case this month for Garza, who in back-to-back starts shutout the Reds and held the Phillies hitless for six innings. In his first start after the All-Star break, though, Garza was shelled by the Nationals for five runs in just one third of an inning.
Gee has also had flirtations with brilliance over the years that are mixed in with mediocrity. In fact, during his last start in San Diego, he experienced both at once. On one hand, Gee assuaged my concerns about his sliding strikeout rate by punching out eight Padres in five innings. On the other hand, he also gave up four runs on two home runs. It will be much tougher to avoid the long ball in Milwaukee, so hopefully Gee can be more precise with his pitches and lead the Mets to a win while boosting his trade value.
Back in 2007 when he was 21 years old, Gallardo hurled 101 strikeouts and 37 walks in 110.1 innings to secure "ace of the future' status in the Milwaukee organization. After an injury-derailed 2008 and a 94-walk 2009, the Mexican right-hander finally delivered the goods in 2010 with a 3.02 FIP and 4.5 fWAR. He appeared to have a bright career in front of him with another two solid seasons in 2011 and 2012, but Gallardo's strikeout rate dropped from 24 percent down to 19 percent in 2013, and this season it's down to 18 percent. Continued durability and the lowest walk rate of his career are good signs for Gallardo in 2014, but right now he looks more like a mid-rotation starter than the anchor of a staff.
That last sentence sounds like something we could be saying about Wheeler one day if he doesn't blossom into a player reflecting his former prospect status. He's a young fastball/slider/curve thrower and is striking out about one batter per inning like Gallardo was when he came up. Wheeler's walks have been a concern this season, but lately he's blazed through a streak of solid starts. In his last four, Wheeler has allowed exactly one run while pitching between six and seven innings. The competition hasn't been stellar over that stretch, so Milwaukee should provide a nice litmus test.
Peralta has taken some nice steps forward this season to improve on his promising rookie campaign of 2013. His walk rate is down more than one batter per nine innings, and his ground ball rate is up 3.5 percent. Those figures have helped balance Peralta's ERA at 3.58 despite an unsightly home-run-per-fly-ball rate of 15.8 percent. Back on June 11 at Citi Field, he allowed just one run against the Mets in 6.1 innings, and Peralta has been even better in his last two starts overall. Two runs allowed in 14 total innings against the Cardinals and Reds with 10 strikeouts and just two walks is nothing to sneeze at.
Niese's streak of allowing three or less runs in every start was finally broken in Seattle of all places. On Monday, he let up four runs in six innings during New York's 5-2 loss. You can excuse Niese for being a little rusty on his first start back from the disabled list, but against Milwaukee, he'll need to be at his best. He was just that earlier this year against the Brewers. The lefty shut them down with eight strikeouts, one walk, and one run allowed in 7.2 innings of an extra-inning loss on June 12.
Sunday: Jacob deGrom vs. Jimmy Nelson
With the way Nelson has pitched in the Pacific Coast League this season, it's worth wondering why the Brewers waited for Estrada to completely unravel before calling up the promising young right-hander. Nelson struck out more than a batter per innings for the Nashville Sounds and posted a 1.46 ERA in 111 innings, so it appears that he's ready for the show. His first major league start in July was tough sledding (six runs allowed in less than five innings against St. Louis), but he rebounded to pitch a quality start against the Reds in his last time out.
deGrom made it three straight magnificent starts with his latest performance in Seattle. The young right-hander now has seven innings pitched, at least seven strikeouts, and one run allowed or fewer in each of his last three outings. He's finally starting to realize the command that made him so successful in the minor leagues, and his strikeout rate is the highest it's been since Class A. That strikeout rate is well worth watching, because it could determine deGrom's future success in the majors. With the way he's been pitching, every time he and his flowing locks take the mound is highly anticipated.
Prediction: deGrom and Wheeler shine, allowing the Mets to earn a split.
What about some highlights?
ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian was smoked during his first run in the famous Milwaukee Sausage Race earlier this summer.
Hank, the adorable pooch who the Brewers adopted in spring training, had a lot more fun during his Sausage Race debut.
Taylor Teagarden, in his Mets debut, hit a grand slam to lift the team to its only win over the Brewers this season.
The last time these two clubs met the Brewers took 2 out of 3. They won't do that again...because they're playing 4 games so the Brewers will probably win 3 or 4.
Hey! The Brewers won a bunch of games and the rest of the division didn't, especially the Reds. Because we swept them. Huzzah! Actually, the Pirates kind of kicked the crap out of the Dodgers. They're tied with the Cards 2.5 games back of the Brewers and the Reds are 5.5 games back. Seriously though, the Pirates have been kicking the crap out of a lot of teams. We're not here to talk about their crap kicking ways though, we're here to talk about the crappy Mets who the Brewers are lucky enough to face for a 4 game series. Huzzah again!
The Mets are 21st in runs scored per game (3.93) and 20th in wRC+ (93). Somewhat surprisingly, among regulars, Lucas Duda has been their biggest offensive threat (138 wRC+). Curtis Granderson (118 wRC+) and Daniel Murphy (111 wRC+) haven't exactly been awful, but clearly they haven't had dynamic offensive seasons. The only other regular above 100 wRC+ is David Wright (112 wRC+) but he's having quite the down year. Some of their part time contributors have been decent: Eric Campbell (126 wRC+), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (129 wRC+), and Bobby Abreu (107 wRC+). Outside of those players the offense has been a complete disaster.
The Mets pitching staff has actually been pretty decent. As a team they rank 10th best with 3.80 runs allowed per game. The bullpen has been pretty good. Their closer is newcomer Jenry Meija. After a failed attempt at starting, Meija has been pretty excellent in late relief. Jeurys Familia has also been excellent as a difficult to pronounce set-up man. If I was a Mets fan I'd be pretty excited about that young duo. Actually, Carlos Torres has been about as effective as those two. Josh Edgin has had really good results, but he's pretty mediocre. I'd say the same thing about Vic Black. His absurd walk rate keeps him from being very good. Dana Eveland has had decent results in his 16.2 innings since being promoted at the end of May. He's not that good though. Daisuke Matsuzaka is also a starter converted to reliever this year. He's got a pretty high strikeout rate but his walk rate is pretty absurd.
Up and down this bullpen has gotten some pretty good results. The Brewers have a solid offense, but just to be on the safe side they'd better hope they have the lead going into the 7th or 8th inning.
Dillon Gee is a perfectly viable back-end starter. I'm am surprised though at how well his ERA looks (2.92). He doesn't have a high strikeout rate (17.5%), his HR/9 is mediocre (1.11), and his 44.7% ground ball rate paired with his 11.1 home run to fly ball ratio suggests he's being helped by his ballpark. His walk rate is really low (6.2%) as is his BAA (.218) and subsequently his WHIP (1.08). However, his .237 BABIP is unsustainable. He has a fringey fastball (89 mph) but compliments it with an equal mix of slider, change-up, and curveball. Batters are making contact against his pitches at an above average rate. As long as the Brewers follow suit, I think we could see a home run barrage tonight in the friendly confines of Miller Park.
Zack Wheeler is a decent mid-rotation guy. Walks are a bit of an issue (9.7 BB%) and he's getting hit at a slightly above average rate (.251 BAA). As a result his WHIP (1.36) is in pretty poor shape. He does strikeout at an above average clip (23.1 K%) and keeps the ball in the yard (0.63 HR/9) and on the ground (53.5 GB%). Brewers are going to have to be patient against him. He throws fewer first strike pitches than average and his pitches are out of the zone at a slightly higher rate than average. If the Brewers can avoid swinging at those pitches they should be okay.
Jon Niese is another 3/4 type pitcher. He kind of reminds me of Shaun Marcum in a good way. They have a similar pitch mix and Niese's velocity on his fastball (88 mph) is down around Marcum levels. Niese isn't a flyball pitcher though. He keeps the ball on the ground about 50% of the time. His 17.5 K% and .255 BAA are below average while his 6.6 BB% and 1.26 WHIP are slightly above average. I always feel more confident in a pitching match-up when I see average or below average BAA. The Brewers strikeout a lot and don't take walks so I don't look at a pitchers walk rate that much and even a below average K% could be boosted by the Brewers hitters. But, a pitcher that gives up hits is still going to give up hits to the Brewers. And with the bats they have, they're probably going to be hard hits. That's the way I think about it anyway.
Sunday July 27th, 1:10 pm CT: Jimmy Nelson vs Jacob DeGrom
Jacob DeGrom is a rookie this year and he's having a hell of a campaign so far. His 3.01 ERA isn't far off from his 3.10 FIP. He's striking out batters at an above average rate (23.7%). His walk rate is high though (8.7%). His .247 BAA and 1.29 WHIP are almost exactly league average. His minor league numbers suggest his K% might come down some and with his average BAA and WHIP that means his ERA will go up. Sunday is as good a time as any for that change to begin.
Conclusion
If it weren't for the Mets crappy offense I'd say the Brewers have their hands full. I really like their pitching staff. When Matt Harvey returns next near, and with the possible addition of Noah Syndergaard, it's going to be really excellent. For right now, it's just okay. That bullpen though, man. Let's hope the Brewers can avoid giving them a late lead, which I think they can. The Brewers offense has been heating up recently and as noted several times, the Mets offense mostly sucks. This is probably a series where the Brewers should, and can, win 3 out of 4. If the offense stays hot maybe they can keep the sweep going. That's probably too much to hope for though.
Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now.Here's the FanDuel link!
Sorry, but I missed half of this game so it's going to be an abbreviated recap tonight, but better than no recap, right?! Anyway, things took off quickly for the Brewers offense with a solo shot from Jonathan Lucroy.
In the second inning the Brewers really opened things up. Jean Segura drove in Khris Davis and Mark Reynolds with a triple. He would also come around to score on a single by Carlos Gomez. Gomez would steal and then score on a Lucroy base hit.
Rickie Weeks and Khris Davis hit back to back doubles in the third to give the Brewers a 6-0 lead. Khris Davis would tack on another run in the sixth inning with a solo shot of his own. The final two Brewers runs came on a 2 run home run to deep left in the seventh inning off the bat of Ryan Braun.
Matt Garza had a complete rebound from his last start. The only run he allowed came from a Lucas Duda home run in the seventh inning. Garza went 8 complete innings allowing 2 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 4. Tom Gorzelanny finished out the game only allowing 1 baserunner to reach on a walk.
The Brewers are now in possession of the best record in the National League. The other meaningful NL Central clubs were off today so the Brewers now have a 3 game lead on the Cardinals and Pirates as well as a 6 game lead on the Reds.
The Brewers left no doubt in who would win this one. They started the scoring quick with a Jonathan Lucroy home run in the first, then followed it up with four more in the second inning and another run in the third. Meanwhile, Matt Garza was dominant, holding the Mets to one run and two hits in eight innings.
Yesterday, Mark Reynolds made an appearance on MLB Network's intentional talk, and a surprise guest joined him. John & Cait have the video of the interview, if you missed it.
Minor League Update
Team
Level
Record
Yesterday
This Weekend
Nashville Sounds
AAA
56-50
Nashville 4, Colorado Spring 2
Fri: Oklahoma City @ Nashville Sat: Oklahoma City @ Nashville Sun:Oklahoma City @ Nashville
Pirates @ Rockies Friday: Charlie Morton vs. Brett Anderson Saturday: Jeff Locke vs. Tyler Matzek Sunday: Edinson Volquez vs. Franklin Morales
Cardinals @ Cubs Friday: Joe Kelly vs. Travis Wood Saturday: Shelby Miller vs. Jake Arrieta Sunday: Adam Wainwright vs. Kyle Hendricks
Nationals @ Reds Friday: Tanner Roark vs. Alfredo Simon Saturday: Gio Gonzalez vs. Johnny Cueto Sunday: Doug Fister vs. Mat Latos
This Weekend's Action
The series against the Mets continues through the weekend. Yesterday, Derek previewed the entire series, including the last three games over the weekend. Here are the matchups.
Friday: Zack Wheeler vs. Yovani Gallardo Saturday: Jonathan Niese vs. Wily Peralta Sunday: Jacob deGrom vs. Jimmy Nelson
Matts Carpenter and Holliday both go yard while brethren Matt Adams goes 0-5 in loss to Cubs.
pre-game
game
I am Wrigley Field. I am a behemoth - not in size, but in difficulty. I am where fly balls turn into dingers. I am where fly balls and popups swirl in the air in unpredictable patterns, making fielders look foolish. Instead of soft outfield walls, I welcome outfielders with brick, daring them to crash with abandon against my ivy covered exterior. I am where pitchers' ERAs go to die.
Things I do not like about Wrigley Field:
Wind tunnels
Afternoon weekday games
Hard, brick walls
The Cubs
In-play bullpens
Things I like about Wrigley Field:
I guess it is cute.
See, I really hate Wrigley afternoon games because they are in the afternoon, and they usually are super long and high scoring. It makes me tired and want to fall asleep, which I cannot do if I have a recap to write. And if I had fallen asleep during this game, chances are I would have missed something important.
It has been said, and I would believe it, that mangers over the course of a season really do not affect much. This game was not a good example of that. With both starters out early (Travis Wood out after five innings with 113 pitches, Joe Kelly out with two outs in the fifth), it would be up to the managers to push the right buttons today. Ooooh boy, we might be in trouble. The game would go back and forth with no team taking command, with five home runs on the day and four lead changes.
I am going to give you the cliff notes of what went on, because honestly, if I described every scoring play in detail, I would have written 2000 words. The only two innings that were not scored in were the eighth and ninth, and there were still hits. To paint you a better word picture on how this game went, Daniel Descalso ended up as the Cardinals last hope. For all the trouble he gets, he put up an admirable fight, taking a tough back door slider and fouling of some pitches at 95+, but not even an old vet like he could win this one for us.
There were several questionable decisions by Mike Matheny today, some I am sure he would do differently if given another chance, like leaving Kevin Siegrist, who last pitched May 23, in to face Luis Valbuena after already pitching one inning and one out and hitting Anthony Rizzo. Valbuena would homer, scoring two runs and giving the Cubs a 7-6 lead in the bottom of the seventh that they would not relinquish (although they tried).
So instead of lamenting missed opportunities, like having Mark Ellis attempt to bunt Jon Jay to second with no outs in the top of sixth against a lefty, or Kolten Wong's TOOTBLAN in the top of the eighth, let me leave you with something cool - Pat Neshek's at bat against Emilio Bonifacio in the eighth.
That change-up can be breath-taking.
post-game
LIL_SCOOTER'S PAIN IN THE ASS OF THE GAME:
Luis Valbuena is so pesky. His .424 WPA leads all players. He also scored two runs and batted two runs in.
(For the background story on this last tweet, see here. If we had won, one of these was going to be the headline to this recap.)
This was a game the Cardinals really, really would have liked to win. They have now lost four in a row and sit 3.5 back of the Brewers (pending the outcome of the Brewers/Mets game going on now). Games are becoming more precious, and while the tough part of the schedule is pretty much over, beating these losing teams are crucial, but you don't need me to tell you that. Tomorrow Shelby Miller faces Jake Arrieta. This match-up makes me nervous, especially if the wind is blowing out again. The game begins at 3:05pm CST. Be there or be... not there, but you should really just watch it, okay.
After a solid pitching performance from Zack Wheeler, the Mets come from behind late and defeat the Brewers, 3-2.
After barely registering a pulse for eight innings against Brewers starter Jovani Gallardo, the Mets offense scored three runs in the ninth to lock up a victory in Milwaukee, and bring their record for this crucial road trip back to .500.
Zack Wheeler pitched 6⅔ stellar innings, one-hitting the Brewers for much of the night and allowing only one unearned run thanks to a Daniel Murphy error. However, with two outs in the seventh, Carlos Gomez homered to put the Brewers up 2-0 and presumably stick Wheeler with a tough-luck loss.
Thankfully, Murphy redeemed himself for his earlier miscue and got on with a double in the top of the ninth off of Francisco Rodriguez. David Wright drove him in with a single to left, and Lucas Duda homered for the second time in as many games to, miraculously, put the Mets up 3-2.
Jenrry Meija would enter the game in the ninth, and after walking the first batter he faced, struck out the next three to earn the save.
GameThread Roll Call
Nice job by MetsFan4Decades; her effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.
Zach Wheeler put in another solid performance as the Mets come from behind to beat the mighty Brewers 3-2 thanks to the Big Lebowski.
For eight innings of Friday night's game against the National League Central leading Brewers, the Mets offense looked as it has for this entire road trip: without energy, without power, and without life. Indeed, the Mets had only scored fifteen runs in their last seven games, and for most of the night it looked like this contest was going to be another depressing ordeal for Mets fans.
The baseball gods, though, had other things in store for the Amazins. And in the top of the ninth inning, having only gotten four hits all night, the Mets jumped in front of the streaking Brewers and evened their record on this road trip to 4-4.
The vast majority of the game was a pitchers' duel between Zack Wheeler and Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo three-hit the Mets for most of the night, with two of those hits coming from Daniel Murphy, who is now 8-for-18 against the Gallardo in his career. Other than that, though, Gallardo cruised. He struck out eight and allowed no runs through seven-and-two-thirds innings of work. Gallardo had retired fourteen Mets before Eric Campbell's infield hit in the eighth knocked him out of the game.
As for the Mets side of things, Wheeler performed nearly as well. After a giving up an infield hit to Carlos Gomez and hitting Rickie Weeks with a 96 mile per hour fastball, Wheeler settled down nicely. He struck out Ryan Braun next, got Aramis Ramirez to hit into a fielder's choice, and then got Khris Davis to ground out to short. He breezed through the second and third innings before a changeup got away from him and hit Davis in the fourth. Undeterred, he struck out Lyle Overbay to end the inning without any further hiccups. In the fifth, he would work around Daniel Murphy's error and got the excitable Carlos Gomez to ground out to third on a nice play by David Wright.
The trouble for the Mets began in the sixth, when, after an eight pitch at-bat, Wheeler issued his first walk of the game to Rickie Weeks. Wheeler then induced a ground ball from Ryan Braun that should have been a double play, but instead managed to sneak through the legs of Daniel Murphy for the All-Star's second error of the night. (No word yet on whether Murph flogged himself in the dugout at the end of the inning.)
Unlike the first error, the Mets would pay for this one, as the speedy Weeks advanced to third on the play. Wheeler then faced Aramis Ramirez. The Georgian threw his entire arsenal all over the strike zone at Ramirez until the Brewers clean-up hitter slapped a ball to short that eliminated Braun but scored Weeks to give the Brewers a 1-0 lead. In response, Wheeler showed incredible maturity and resilience by striking out Khris Davis, and, despite walking Lyle Overbay, got Jean Segura to ground out to third.
The trouble in the following inning would be entirely of Wheeler's own making. After Martin Maldonado grounded out to third, and Yovani Gallardo struck out looking, the Mets starter faced Carlos Gomez. Gomez took the first pitch he saw, smacked it just over the wall in right-centerfield, and performed his obligatory chest pounding celebration as he rounded the bases, to the chagrin of Mets fans (and anyone with taste) everywhere. Next up, Rickie Weeks would almost make it back-to-back solo homers, but his hit managed to stay in the park for a double. Wheeler's night was finished, though, and while Vic Black would get Ryan Braun to fly out to Juan Lagares, it looked as if Wheeler would get stuck with the tough-luck loss.
The Mets had a shot to tie it in the eighth on the aforementioned two-out hit from Campbell that knocked Gallardo out of the game. With Curtis Granderson due up, Ron Roenicke called in lefty Will Smith to get the final out. The Fresh Prince did just that, striking out the slumping right-fielder on four pitches and ending the threat.
After Carlos Torres came in the eighth and held the Brewers at two, Daniel Murphy led off the ninth inning against former Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. Perhaps it was the sight of an old friend, or perhaps Murph's desire for redemption spiritually guided his bat to contact, or perhaps it was just old-fashioned Mets magic, but Murph doubled to left for his third hit of the night. Captain Wright promptly drove Murph in, muscling a single into left field to cut the Brewers' lead in half. Lucas Duda now lumbered to the plate. The first baseman jumped on the first pitch he saw, smacking a home run that put the Mets on top 3-2, and most likely dented the wall beyond the right-center-field fence at Miller Park.
Jenrry Meija would have his work cut out for him in the ninth, though. Roenicke sent up Brewers messiah Jonathan Lucroy to pinch hit for Maldonado, and Meija walked him to put the tying run at first with no outs. Luckily, Logan Schafer came up to bunt Lucroy over to second and failed miserably. Meija struck him out, partially to record an out and partially to put the poor boy out of his misery. This brought the histrionic Gomez back up, but sadly for Brewers fans, lighting failed to strike twice, and Gomez struck out swinging on an 87 mph slider from Meija. Meija then struck out Weeks to end the game and earn his fourteenth save of the year.
Murphy redeemed, K-Rod defeated, Mets victorious. We should do this more often.
Big winners: Lucas Duda, 44.0; Jenrry Meija, 19.4 Big losers:Bobby Abreu, -11.9; Curtis Granderson, -10.1 Teh aw3s0mest play: Lucas Duda homer, top of the ninth Teh sux0rest play: Carlos Gomez homer, bottom of the seventh Total pitcher WPA: 27.9 Total batter WPA: 22.1 GWRBI!: Lucas Duda home run, top of the ninth
One bad inning out of Jonathon Niese was all it took as the Mets lost the third game in this four game series.
The Mets lost by a score of 5-2 in Milwaukee tonight in disappointing fashion. New York struck first in this one with a run in the second off an RBI single by—who else—Lucas Duda. Curtis Granderson said hello in the fifth inning with a solo shot, his first since the All-Star break and first by a Met not named Duda in that same time span. The two runs would be all the Mets could manage, however, as they proceeded to give up five unanswered to the Brewers.
Niese was in cruise control through the first four innings and appeared to be working on a gem when, rather suddenly, the wheels fell off in the fifth. With two outs, Jean Segura scored on a wild pitch, Jonathan Lucroy hit an RBI double, and Ryan Braun added an RBI single. Just like that the Brewers were ahead 3-2. The Brewers would tack on one more in the sixth on a Mark Reynolds solo bomb and another in the eighth on a Khris Davis RBI double.
The Brewers' bullpen was dominant and there was no ninth-inning magic tonight, as Francisco Rodriguez, with a three-run cushion, closed it out in the ninth. The Mets will look to even up the series tomorrow in Milwaukee and head back home with a .500 record on this long, ten-game trip.
GameThread Roll Call
Nice job by MookieTheCat; his effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.
Yovani Gallardo put together a fantastic start, pitching 7 2/3 innings of shutout baseball. The Brewers got two runs, one from an Aramis Ramirez groundout and another from a Carlos Gomez home run. However, the Mets rallied for three runs off of closer Francisco Rodriguez to pull out the win.
Wily Peralta didn't have his best day, but managed to get through six innings allowing only two runs. The offense picked him up, with four different Brewers recording RBIs to provide a balanced offense.
The Brewers couldn't figure out Jacob deGrom, who kept the Brewers in check for 6 1/3 innings and held them to four hits and two walks. It wasted a good start from Jimmy Nelson, who had some early trouble but settled in to pitch 7 innings, allowing only a two-run home run. That was enough offense for the Mets tow in.
Jonathan Lucroy has become the new face of the Brewers franchise.
For years, the Brewers had turned to Ryan Braun to be the face of the franchise. However, recent events have tarnished his image, and while he's still a good player for the Brewers, he isn't the same as he used to be. As Braun's image fell, another star has stepped into that role: Jonathan Lucroy. On Friday, Noah made the argument for why Lucroy is the new face of the franchise. Lucroy has really stepped up this year, becoming one of the best hitters for the Brewers and a MVP candidate. The fans have rallied around Lucroy, and he has become one of the most popular players on the team. He's still young, so hopefully that means he can be the face of this team for many more years.
Miller Park drunk is a fan of OOTP baseball and decided to take on a new challenge this time: making the Cardinals as bad as possible. It didn't work out as well as he had hoped.
The Brewers travel to Tampa Bay for the first time since 2005 to face the Rays tonight. Kyle Lohse will open the series for the Brewers, and he will face former Brewers prospect Jake Odorizzi. First pitch is at 6:10 pm, and Steven Petrella of MLB.com has the preview.
Could the former Leo Nunez, former Royal and former Marlin be a future Brewer?
The news: On Saturday the Rays designated reliever Juan Carlos Oviedo for assignment. Pitching in the majors for the first time since 2011, Oviedo has a 3.69 ERA over 32 appearances for Tampa. His peripheral numbers tell a slightly less positive story, however, as he's walking 4.5 batters per nine innings and striking out 7.4. His FIP is almost a run higher than his ERA at 4.52. All of these numbers carry a very significant "small sample size" caveat, as they reflect just 31.2 innings.
Kyle's daily roundup of all things Brewers has a new home for 2014 at Milwaukee Magazine.
Oviedo is 32 and injuries and identity issues (he used to be known as Leo Nunez) kept him out of the majors for the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons. Before that, however, he was a "proven closer," recording a combined 92 saves between 2009-11 as a member of the Marlins. He's never been an elite reliever and has struggled against lefties (career .782 OPS against), but he's a viable bullpen arm on a cheap contract (one year, $1.5 million).
If the Brewers are looking for bullpen help, however, then it's worth noting that they could do worse. Oviedo is probably just as likely to be a significant contributor to the Brewers as someone like 41-year-old LaTroy Hawkins, for example. Are either of them likely to be better than someone like Brandon Kintzler? That's open for debate.
As Jordan noted a week ago, the recent Huston Street trade reminded us that trading for an elite reliever is an expensive endeavor. If the Brewers aren't willing to pay that kind of price, then they might be better off looking for help on the scrap heap than paying for mid-level talent.
Brewers travel to Tampa Bay for their last interleague series in an AL park against the surging Rays.
This is a really interesting series to me. The Brewers definitely want to keep winning and hopefully gain more ground on their division rivals. The Rays want to win too but they're in a much different position and are walking the fine line between competing, or calling it a season and shipping David Price as well as Ben Zobrist. The Rays lost yesterday but have been on a tear lately winning 9 of their last 10 games. They're 6.5 games back of first place in the AL East, but are only 4.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card spot.
The Cardinals have often been mentioned as the favorites to get Price (if they want to) and the Reds really could use Ben Zobrist to fill in for the injured Brandon Phillips. It would be best for the Brewers if the Rays don't sell. Theoretically speaking, if the Brewers were to sweep the Rays, they could find themselves 7.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card spot. Would that be enough to convince Tampa Bay's front office to sell? I really have no idea, but it's on my mind. Fortunately(?) for the Brewers there is almost no chance they sweep a series in which David Price starts a game and so the Rays might only lose 1 game in the standings which would likely equate to them keeping their players.
Offensively the Brewers and Rays have been somewhat similar. Taking out pitchers (because this game is in the AL) the Brewers have had a 108 wRC+, the Rays have had a 105 wRC+. The difference here is that the Rays play with a DH in most of their games and the Brewers don't. What I'm saying is the Rays 105 is more representative of the Rays offense than the Brewers 108 wRC+.
I think having adding the DH to the Brewers lineup helps the Brewers offense more than it hurts the Brewers pitching staff. Ron Roenicke said he wants to DH Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, and either Carlos Gomez or Ryan Braun. So basically, they're adding Lyle Overbay (82 wRC+) in place of Kyle Lohse (-11 wRC+), Martin Maldonado (101 wRC+) in place of Matt Garza (-70 wRC+), and probably Logan Schafer (54 wRC+) in place of Yovani Gallardo (-18 wRC+). Even though Overbay and Schafer are marginal major league bats they're clearly significant upgrades from any of the starting pitchers.
I should mention that the Rays have been more dangerous offensively as of late. In fact, in the last 30 days their 124 wRC+ is the highest in baseball by quite a bit. One guy we should hope doesn't play all three games is Kevin Kiermaier. He's splitting time in the right and center fields and is absolutely killing right-handed pitching to the tune of a 186 wRC+. Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce has been solid as well.
James Loney was always a pretty marginal first baseman. He was good defensively and okay offensively. While he's been about league average offensively (107 wRC+) his defense has been rated as poor. Ben Zobrist has been getting the majority of his starts at second base and has been pretty good. He has a 122 wRC+ however he's much better against LHP than RHP. We might see Sean Rodriguez a lot because he's one of the better infielders vs RHP. Over at third base Evan Longoria has traditionally been one of the Rays heavy hitters. However this year he only has 12 home runs and a 107 wRC+. Shortstop Yunel Escobar has been exactly replacement level (0.0 fWAR). Like most everyone else in the infield Escobar is worse against RHP.
Half of their catching duo should be familiar to Brewers fans. Former Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan has been catching roughly half of the innings for the Rays. His defense is solid and I think I remember he's good at pitch framing. His offense is less good. In fact you could say it's bad (88 wRC+). The other half of the catching duo is Jose Molina who less good defensively than Hanigan and horrible offensively (33 wRC+). Molina is the pitch framing master though. Apparently the Rays really value that ability.
The Rays closer is Jake McGee. I really like him. He strikes out a ton of batters, doesn't walk a lot, and has yet to give up a home run. This guy is tough. Brad Boxberger has been really good too, though he's had a bit of a home run issue which holds him back from being great. When Grant Balfour was with the Brewers my friends and I used to make the "more like Ball Four" joke a lot. We were totally super clever blokes. Well, he's really living up that dumb nickname with a 17% walk rate. His K% is at a career low as well. Cesar Ramos and Kirby Yates are adequate relievers. Jeff Beliveau is likely filling in for the injured Joel Peralta. He hasn't spent a lot time at the MLB level, but he's had a really good K rate in the minors. He could be good, but he sometimes has issues with issuing walks. Maybe he gets too wild? Erik Bedard is the Rays version of Marco Estrada. Instead of giving up a bunch of home runs as a starter he just gave up a ton of hits in general. We likely don't see him unless the Brewers are killing a starter.
Monday July 28th, 6:10 pm CT: Kyle Lohse vs Jake Odorizzi
At one point both Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi were in the Brewers minor league system. They were both part of the deal that brought in Yuniesky Betancourt and some pitcher from Kansas City. Now Jeffress is back with the Brewers and Odorizzi is in the middle of the Rays Rotation. Trades are fun.
Odorizzi's 26.9 K% is pretty excellent but his WHIP is pretty high at 1.34. I think it's due to his near league average .242 BAA and poor 9.1 BB%. His .319 BABIP is higher than league average, but it doesn't strike me as something that's unsustainably high. His ERA sits at 3.97. I think by season's end that goes down, but at this point in his career I think it's close to his true talent level. The Brewers should be able to get to him. Odorizzi doesn't have huge splits, but LHH have a higher batting average and slugging against him. This is the game should Ramirez hit in the DH spot, which is nice because it'll be good to have both Scooter Gennett and Overbay hitting.
Tuesday July 29th, 6:10 pm CT: Matt Garza vs Alex Cobb
Alex Cobb could be tough for the Brewers. His strikeout and walk rates are close to league average and his BAA and WHIP are slightly better than average. His 58.0% ground ball rate is really excellent (and pretty close to his career average of 57%). He's been good against RHH, but this year he's killing lefties. This should be a game where Overbay sits. Since he's likely to play on Monday there's a good chance that happens. Logan Schafer is almost always awful, so hopefully this is the game where Lucroy DHs and Martin Maldonado catches.
Wednesday July 30th, 11:10 pm CT: Yovani Gallardo vs David Price
David Price is a beast. He's been one of the best pitchers every season since he's been called up and he is probably having his best season ever. He's sporting career best strikeout rates (27.8%) and walk rates (3.2%). Add that to his below league average .234 BAA and his WHIP is an incredible 1.04! That's also a career best. I was sort of surprised to see that lefties had a better wOBA against Price than righties. Then I realized why. Teams are hiding their LHH from Price. He's only pitched 40.1 innings to LHH and 123.1 innings to RHH. The Brewers are going to have a hard time against Price, but the guy isn't untouchable. He's giving up 3 or more runs in 11 games this year including 1 in which he gave up 5 and two where he gave up 6. That kind of makes it all the more incredible that his ERA is only 3.08.
Conclusion
The Cardinals are now 2 games back of the Brewers. They also play on Thursday when the Brewers have off. The Brewers play the Cardinals next. There are still two months left, but it's getting to the point where every series seems like a must win. Still, if the Brewers were to lose a couple of games it might be okay if it means the Rays hold onto their players. That's going to be the silver lining because I think it's very possible the Brewers lose two of these games.
Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now.Here's the FanDuel link!
With a timely hit by James Loney and some help from spacious Tropicana.
It's a proven fact that familiarity favors the hitters in baseball, while an unfamiliar matchup tends to help the pitcher. And with two lineups facing pitchers from the other league that they've rarely encountered, the pitchers' advantage was on display tonight. Kyle Lohse was impressive, working quickly and varying his four-pitch repertoire well. He struck out six Rays in the six innings he completed, although he did walk three batters. He repeatedly tied up Rays batters with sinkers in on the hands of righties and sliders in on the hands of lefties, and he showcased occasionally ridiculous movement on each pitch. It's easy to see how the thirty-five year old has enjoyed a late-career renaissance, using his veteran wiles to become one of the more successful pitchers in the National League over the past few seasons.
Young Jake Odorizzi was better, though. Where once he struggled with pitch efficiency, it took Odorizzi just 91 pitches to work through seven innings. He struck out five batters and walked none, giving up only three hits. Interestingly, he threw only two curve balls the entire night, instead relying on his slider -- normally his fourth pitch -- and throwing it 20 times to go with 25 splitters and 44 fastballs (data from Brooks Baseball). I imagine he was feeling good about his slider tonight, and I did think it occasionally flashed better-than-normal movement. I also saw him use it backdoor successfully twice, which is something of a new trick for Odor.
The lone blemish on Jake Odorizzi's night came with one out in the third inning when he left an 89 mph fastball over the heart of the plate to Mark Reynolds. The result was predictable.
None of this is to say there were not some close calls for Odorizzi. The Brewers swing hard, and they hit a lot of fly balls. Mark Reynolds sent Kevin Kiermaier to the back of the track in right, and Khris Davis seems very much like a National League version of our friend Chris Davis. He clobbered two towering fly balls that on a warmer day, perhaps if the A/C had malfunctioned, could easily have left the yard.
Rays Offense
The Rays offense made their breakthrough in the bottom of the sixth inning. Perhaps he was tiring, or maybe it was just an off moment that he could have recovered from, but Kyle Lohse appeared to lose some command of his breaking ball, missing down and glove-side with it several times. With two outs, Ben Zobrist was able to capitalize, drawing a five-pitch walk. Next up, Matt Joyce lined an outside fastball the other way up the third base line for a single, which allowed Zobrist to advance to third.
Evan Longoria, who had looked bad in his first two plate appearances, came up to the plate clearly pumped to win the game. He took a big, long swing on an inside fastball. He had no chance, missing by perhaps four inches. That got Longo's head right and he settled down to a disciplined at bat, accepting his walk and loading the bases for James Loney.
Lohse threw an inside fastball to Loney that actually jammed him slightly, sapping some of the power from his swing. The result was a perfectly placed soft liner over the infield and into right-center. Two runs scored, and that was all the Rays would need.
Rays Offensive
In the bottom of the seventh inning, something horrible happened. Yunel Escobar lined a high fastball from Jared Jeffress the other way for a single. That was good. Then Jose Molina tried to bunt and did so badly, fouling it backwards. On the next pitch, he tried to bunt again, doing so back to the pitcher. Jeffress picked it up, turned, and threw to second base in time to get Escobar. With Molina running, it was a sure double play.
Here's why the Rays should never have Jose Molina bunt in that situation again. It's a true sacrifice with no upside and extra downside. When most players bunt, there is a chance that they might beat the throw out, or that they force a fielder to rush and he makes a mistake. There is, at least, very little chance of a double play. If the opposing team tries for the lead runner, they risk not getting any outs. But with Molina running, it's essentially a free pass to try for that lead runner. If you get him, double play. If you don't oh well, go get the out at first.
Some other notes:
In his first plate appearance, former MVP and known steroid Ryan Braun user received a hearty round of boos from the Tropicana faithful. I wasn't expecting that, but I assume he gets that in most parks these days?
In the second inning, James Loney grounded sharply back to the mound, and Lohse made a good play on it. Loney shook his head in frustration but it was interesting that the Brewers had their shortstop playing directly over second base, so if Lohse had missed it would have been an easy out anyway. We think of Loney as a guy who sprays the ball around, but the Brewers sure played him to pull.
In the fifth inning, Odorizzi started walking toward the dugout after striking out Scooter Gennett for the second out of the inning. He didn't realize his counting error until the fourth step or so, but had a good cheerful recovery afterwards.
Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee blew the Breweres away over the last two innings. They've become a dominant late-inning duo. McGee has been used in high-leverage situations all season, but one does perhaps wish that Boxberger was given more of these chances early on this year.
The series that chronicles the highs and lows of the Royals roster, now with 100% less Danny Valencia.
Well, Dayton Moore finally pulled the trigger on the big deal of the summer, trading Danny Valencia for Erik Kratz and Liam Hendriks. In other words, a career lefty-masher for two journeymen; one of which is a 34-year-old back-up catcher, the other is a pitcher with an ERA over six in the majors who profiles like an AAA depth signing. Is this better or worse than the idea of trading for Jonny Gomes?
I'm going with about even, just because of the weak return. At least it's selling and not buying, I suppose. But when you acquire a player like Valencia on a short term deal and then flip him at the deadline, you do sort of hope that you get one player in the trade who might pan out.
Speaking of panning out (or lack thereof), here's your Position Player Ups and Downs for the last couple weeks, for your 53-51 Kansas City Royals (2.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card...sound familiar?).
And unto every life, especially the lives of players dependent on BABIP to make offensive contributions, a little rain must fall. The universe finally realized that Cain had been coasting on a balls-in-play for awhile, and he's been headed back towards Earth as a result. At .297/.333/.410, we might hope that's closer to Cain's actual abilities...but that triple slash is still fueled by a BABIP 38 points higher than his career average. At least he hasn't been hurt that much this year? If he can keep up some approximation of a decent hitter, his defense, as you all know, keeps him in good-regular territory.
Been hot enough of late to gain the up arrow, despite his continuing struggle to hit the ball with any authority. It's not that Aoki's skillset coming into MLB two years ago was bad - he had what I would term as a good year a decent year with the Brewers before the trade - but some combination of age-related decline, switching leagues, and the book getting out on him have left him as a pretty unimpressive player. Fangraphs has him with more value than you'd expect on the defensive side of the ball, and that still puts him as less than half of a Lorenzo Cain by WAR.
Dyson would probably also like you to know that he's been worth more than Aoki this year. Speaking of value and skillsets, it is pretty impressive that Dyson manages to maintain a walk rate near 8% of his plate appearances, given that his already paltry slugging percentage has declined from last year. It's a similar trick to the one Aoki's pulling, but Dyson adds more on D and on the basepaths. That leaves with with a pretty neat player, who also unfortunately has the same weakness (power) of most of the Royals roster.
Gordon's value hasn't really suffered since last we met, as he continues to play excellent defense and be one of the few players on the Royals who gets on base with any real regularity, but his SLG has dipped to .417 for the year. If the current figure holds, it'd be the third straight year where Gordon's IsoP has sunk. It bears mentioning two caveats to this negative note, though; 1) it is not Alex Gordon's fault that Dayton Moore has built a team where a guy with a career-high of 23 dingers is the premier power threat in the line-up, and 2) Gordon's SLG has dipped since his right wrist injury, which is something to be mindful of when we're wondering if he's going to hang more dongs.
I could also add, I suppose, that Alex has had a very good year anyway. But you all should know that by now.
Okay, really. The dude is hitting .209/.244/.372 since coming to the Royals. That's a considerable improvement on his LAA numbers. Shut up and let him die in peace.
I almost gave Billy the green arrow because of his recent good games, but that would ignore the bad beforehand. Ticking up to .273/.326/.370 from .275/.325/.355 is not enough for a green arrow without extenuating circumstances. When push comes to shove, for all his goodness over the years, Butler right now is still a designated hitter with an OPS under 700.
Overall, Alcides is in pace to have virtually the same exact season as 2012. That isn't a bad thing, though it isn't exactly overwhelming either. Sort of like the Royals in general, methinks.
The other player who's sort of living and dying by BABIP right now, and currently dying a bit more than living. Infante's never been a patient hitter, some decline in power should have been expected at his age, and he's 30 points below his career average thanks to that fickle fairy. I like the Infante acquisition for the Royals, but it's worth noting that by fWAR he's been worth less than Escobar this season to date.
The fact that Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler have struggled to overtake the hitting lines of the team's middle infielders is probably the best way to summarize this year's Royals team in a single sentence.
The two-dinger game against the White Sox was a thing of beauty, and he cracked the .200 BA for the first time in twiddly-two days. This brings his season line to .195/.260/.390. He's slugged almost .500 this month, though, so it no longer feels super cheap to be giving him greens. Even if his OBP is his best month this season is still .292.
What kind of witchcraft has Perez been using this year? His batting line and overall value are as good, if not better, than last year. His walk rate has ticked up. He's done this despite swinging more overall and making contact and making slightly less contact on pitches in the zone. Okay, whatever, as long as the result keep coming.
Others: as mentioned above, we've swapped a Brett Hayesfor an Erik Kratz. This might have been the least-newsworthy thing I've ever written. Farewell, Danny Valencia. You did what we thought you'd do, and that wasn't a bad thing.
~
The Royals, after yesterday's day off, are back in action tonight against the Twinkies, and with James Shields on the mound. As with the rest of the games this season for a team chasing a Wild Card berth, it's a big game tonight.
