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Minor League Notes, 2014-06-22

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the first Brewers minor league action of the summer

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 39-38
Won 7-4 at Salt Lake Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 48-25
Won 5-4 at Pensacola Blue Wahoos (CIN) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 37-32
Lost 5-3 at Dunedin Blue Jays (TOR) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 39-33
Won 5-3 at Burlington Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) 2-3
Won 9-6 at Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) 2-0
Won 4-1 vs AZL Reds (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
Sean HaltonNashvilleRF4120010.267
Jeremy HermidaNashvilleDH4233010.265HR
Hunter MorrisNashville1B5230010.2722B
Pete OrrNashville3B5120010.289SB
Matt PagnozziNashvilleC4123010.214HR
Jason RogersHuntsville3B5132000.287
Orlando ArciaBrevard County2B4000010.263
Nick DelmonicoBrevard County3B4011010.265
Yadiel RiveraBrevard CountySS4021000.247
Victor RoacheBrevard CountyLF4110010.1962B
Tyrone TaylorBrevard CountyDH3000100.257
Clint CoulterWisconsinDH4010010.290
Omar GarciaWisconsinCF4121000.252
Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF3100110.253
Dustin DeMuthHelena1B4242000.4122B, 3B
Brandon DiazHelenaCF6121010.389HR
Dionis HinojosaHelenaDH5221000.2502B
Greg McCallHelenaC4330000.5332B
Gregory MunozHelena2B5021010.400SB, 3B
Tucker NeuhausHelena3B5110000.0562B
Jake GatewoodAZLDH4110020.111
Monte HarrisonAZLCF2100211.500SB
Tanner NortonAZL1B3022000.571
PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
Jimmy NelsonNashville7.05331521.79W, 8-2WP
Drew GagnonHuntsville5.06440403.20HBP, WP (2)
David GoforthHuntsville2.00002302.95S, 15
Jorge LopezBrevard County5.08442213.00L, 7-3
Barrett AstinWisconsin4.04223404.52WP
Josh UhenHelena4.05331115.40
David CarverAZL2.00000200.00
Miguel DiazAZL5.05111511.80

Game 75 Preview, Rockies vs. Brewers: Rockies turn to Tyler Matzek to avoid the sweep

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Tyler Matzek and the Rockies face Kyle Lohse and the Brewers as Colorado looks to avoid a sweep at the hands of Milwaukee.

Yesterday was a debacle, no one will argue that point, but baseball's got an awfully long season and the Rockies have to put that one behind them and focus on avoiding getting swept for the second series in a row.

Milwaukee has already won their first series at Coors Field since 2005 - now they're going for the sweep. They'll send Kyle Lohse to the mound to do the job. Lohse, in the second year of a $33 million free agent contract, has been very good for the Brewers this season. The 35 year-old has gone 8-2 this season in 102 innings over 15 starts, posting a 3.09 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 1.4 rWAR - all of which would lead the Rockies by a significant margin.

The Rockies will counter with Tyler Matzek, who has already thrown a gem and has lost a tough game against the Dodgers. Hopefully Matzek's third start is more like the former than the latter, but this Brewers lineup has more in common with LA's than it does Atlanta's.

In roster news, Michael McKenry will go on three day bereavement leave on Monday, so AAA catcher Jackson Williams will make a cameo appearance with the team beginning tomorrow. Per Thomas Harding, Wilton Lopez was never officially activated to the 40 man roster, meaning that Williams will take Michael Cuddyer's 40 man roster spot and that Lopez will remain in limbo. Rob Scahill will be joining the team as well today to take the spot that Lopez was going to fill.

With all of that roster craziness, here are today's lineups:

Today's Lineups

MILWAUKEE BREWERSCOLORADO ROCKIES
Rickie Weeks - 2BCharlie Blackmon - RF
Ryan Braun - RFDrew Stubbs - CF
Jonathan Lucroy - CTroy Tulowitzki - SS
Carlos Gomez - CFJustin Morneau - 1B
Aramis Ramirez - 3BCorey Dickerson - LF
Khris Davis - LFWilin Rosario - C
Mark Reynolds - 1BJosh Rutledge - 2B
Jean Segura - SSCharlie Culberson - 3B
Kyle Lohse - RHPTyler Matzek - RHP

Also, lest I forget, there is a soccer match of some importance that will be going on during this game. The Party Deck might be the best place to discuss that action, but I'll let the commentariat decide whether to bring that into the Game Thread or not.

Brewers 6, Rockies 5: Colorado's losing streak to six in frustrating loss

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The Rockies fell 6-5 to Milwaukee despite 15 hits - five of them for extra bases. The loss is the sixth in a row for Colorado and drops them to seven games below .500.

The Rockies wasted chances left and right in this one, and the end result was a 6-5 loss to the Brewers for Colorado's sixth straight loss. Milwaukee hadn't won a series at Coors Field in ten years, but they made this one a sweep thanks to a bewildering array of blunders and missed chances by the Rockies in the past three games.

In a season of frustrating losses, this one ranks very highly in my book. Maybe it's because I'm conflating this loss with what occurred in the 95th minute in Manaus just a little later on (so close!), but a team that has 15 hits - including two doubles, two triples, and a homer - really needs to get Rockies fans in Colorado some cheap tacos the next day and avoid their second straight series sweep. The Rockies were a pathetic 2-13 with runners in scoring position in this one and left 12 men on base. They knocked Kyle Lohse out of the game after five innings - his shortest outing on the year, but were unable to capitalize.

In addition, they ran themselves into two crucial outs that would have resulted in runs. First, Charlie Culberson was caught stealing in the sixth inning after starting the frame off with a single. Immediately thereafter DJ LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon threw out hits that would have scored Culberson, but ultimately the Rockies were turned away.

More frustratingly, Corey Dickerson's triple to open the ninth inning should have been stretched into a run when the throw got away from Aramis Ramirez, but as shown in the article photo above, Dickerson fell flat on his face halfway down the line and was tagged out. Wilin Rosario then immediately launched a solo homer to center field that would have tied up the ballgame.

Rosario was a dynamo in this game, going 4-5 with the homer (his eighth), a two run double in the third that tied the game at three apiece, and two singles. It was the best game I've seen this year from Rosario (who admittedly did have a passed ball), and it raised his batting line in what has been a challenging 2014 to .249/.284/.448. Four other Rockies - Drew Stubbs, Blackmon, Culberson, and LeMahieu - also added two hits apiece for the Rockies, whose

On the other side of the coin, the Rockies allowed ten hits and six runs to the Brew Crew. In his third MLB start, Tyler Matzek was more bad Tyler than good Tyler. Matzek lasted 5 1/3 innings, allowing five runs on seven hits (including a mammoth homer to Aramis Ramirez in the second) and four walks while striking out two on the day. All in all, not a terrible effort for Tyler but not one that will keep your team in a lot of games.

Walt Weiss made what I believe was a bad process/good outcome decision when he pulled Matzek with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth inning. Instead of going to literally anyone else in the bullpen, Weiss went to 15th string reliever Rob Scahill, straight off the bus from Colorado Springs and throwing his first 2014 MLB pitch, in arguably the highest leverage spot in the game thus far.

Fortunately for Weiss and the Rockies, Scahill pitched his way out of danger and tacked on another scoreless inning of relief, as did Nick Masset. Unfortunately, Adam Ottavino allowed a solo homer to Lyle Overbay in the ninth - the blow that would turn out to be the decisive run for Milwaukee.

All in all, it's a tough way to end a series, but the Rockies will have to shake it off as the Cardinals come into town tomorrow for a three game series. Colorado will look to Jhoulys Chacin to stop the bleeding against Lance Lynn.

Graph


Source: FanGraphs

We Salute: Rosario (.250 WPA), Scahill (.155)

We Are Disappointed In: Matzek (-.426 WPA), Dickerson (-.155), Morneau (-.141)

Roll Call

Roll Call Info
Total comments695
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Commenter listAtoZ15, BubbaFan, CM85, CORockFaithful, DJP53916, ES46NE10, Lawrence303, Nephelimdream, Nick95, NoDo Joe, Northsider1964, PurpleToPurple, RockedUp, Rockies7935, RockyMountainWay91, Roxman4ever, SDcat09, Sage Farron, Salty, Sjamb, The Ghost of Marv Throneberry, The Lodo Magic Man, WhiskeyDrinkingMan, Yokel, bix783783, butterfly2, chucknazty4eva, evers44, papality, rockiesfan4ever, sleepyteak
Story URLs

Panda Rating: Sad Panda

Minor League Notes, 6-23-14

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Sunday's all-top prospect version of the notes

Nashville Sounds (AAA)
Lost 4-1 at Salt Lake Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 48-26
Lost 4-3 (11 inn.) at Pensacola Blue Wahoos (CIN) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 38-32
Won 6-5 at Dunedin Blue Jays (TOR) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 40-33
Won 5-2 (6 inn.) at Burlington Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) 3-3
Won 6-2 at Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) 2-1
Lost 4-3 vs AZL Indians (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
Hunter MorrisNashville1B4010020.272
D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF5000010.211
Jason RogersHuntsville3B4000130.283
Orlando ArciaBrevard County2B5010000.262
Nick DelmonicoBrevard County3B3011010.267
Yadiel RiveraBrevard CountySS4110010.2472B
Victor RoacheBrevard CountyLF4000130.193
Tyrone TaylorBrevard CountyCF5221010.260
Clint CoulterWisconsinDH2111010.2922B
Omar GarciaWisconsinLF2110110.254
Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF2100100.251
Tucker NeuhausHelena3B4010110.091
Jake GatewoodAZLDH3120110.250
Monte HarrisonAZLCF3110110.429
PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
Tyler CravyNashville3.13113402.70
Brent SuterHuntsville7.03112503.45
Hobbs JohnsonBrevard County5.08552312.97W, 8-6WP (3)
Kevin ShackelfordBrevard County3.04000201.15
Taylor WilliamsWisconsin6.06211413.03W, 5-1WP
Chad ThompsonHelena5.05212305.00W, 1-1

Brewers vs Nationals series preview

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After one of the most satisfying road trips ever in the history of anything, the Brewers return home to face a real team.

The Nationals are in first place in the NL East so it's a battle between division leaders. While I think the Nationals are the best team the Brewers will play in June, they're not exactly the threat they once were. The pitching of course is legit, but they're relying rather heavily on it. On the season they have a 94 wRC+ (17th in MLB) and it hasn't been any better recently (93 wRC+ over last 30 days, 15th in MLB).

That's not to suggest they don't have any offensive threats. Jayson Werth is missing his power this year but he's still hitting .271 and getting on base at a great clip (.354). Anthony Rendon is putting together a great season. He was playing second base but they've not slotted him over at third base and moved Ryan Zimmerman to left field (which has been working well for him). Adam LaRoche is playing out of his mind right now. He's hitting 305/418/477, 152 wRC+. His BABIP is higher than normal which might suggest he'll come back to reality. However he's cut down his K% and GB% and increased his LD% and BB%. Even if his numbers do regress, I wouldn't bet on them falling off a cliff. It's really impressive considering this is his age 34 season.

If you're a believer in fielding metrics you'll be pleased to know the Nationals as a team do not grade out particularly well. While they're 10th in DRS (10), they're also 23rd in UZR (-10.8), and 15th in Fangraphs overall Defensive metric (-4.8). If you're curious, Brewers are 13th in DRS (6), 9th in UZR (12.9), and 9th in Def (11.9).

Pitching is this team's strength and it's quite impressive all around. The only weak link in that bullpen is Ross Detwiler and the Brewers probably won't see him unless a starter leaves early or they're already winning. Tyler Clippard, Rafael Soriano, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen, Aaron Barrett, Jerry Blevins. I mean, take your pick. They're all having good to great seasons. Blevins' ERA is almost 2 points higher than his FIP but I don't see anything in the peripherals to suggest it's anything but bad luck. Looking at this pitching staff top to bottom it's very surprising this team doesn't have a much better record than it does.

Monday June 23, 7:10 pm CT: Matt Garza vs Gio Gonzalez

Gonzalez has not been untouchable this year, but he still has some nice peripherals to go along with a sad 4.85 ERA. He's rolling with a 24.7 K%, 9.6 BB%, .9,87 HR/9, 248 BAA, and a 1.37 WHIP. He has two fastballs, a curve, and a change that he mixes pretty well. If there is one saving grace here it's that Gonzalez is a lefty and Brewers are better against them. It's a tall order though.

Of note for the Brewers: I haven't done any actually research into this, but it feels like the defense always makes boneheaded mistakes behind Matt Garza. Sometimes he joins in. I wonder if maybe Scooter Gennett will get the start even though he can't hit lefties.

Tuesday June 24, 7:10 pm CT: Yovani Gallardo vs Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmerman is really good too. His 20.7 K% is the lowest of the trio, but so is his 4.3 BB% and 0.59 HR/9. His BAA is at .258 but that's not bad and that BB% helps keep his WHIP at a solid 1.17. The Brewers offense is great, but this is going to be a tough one.

Of note for the Brewers: Yovani Gallardo is coming into this game looking to continue what might be his best stretch of the season. He's pitched three straight games going 7 innings deep and has only allowed 2 runs to score in those 21 innings.

Wednesday June 25, 1:10 pm CT: Marco Estrada vs Stephen Strasburg

Pure unadulterated filth. Stephen Strasburg might be the best pitcher the Brewers have faced all year. Everyone knows this kid is great and I think he might still be underrated. Check this out: 28.8 K% (2nd in MLB), 4.8 BB% (15th), 24.1 K%-BB% (3rd). Forget the might, I think Strasburg is the best pitcher the Brewers have faced this season. Depending on how the match-ups shake out down the road, this might be the best pitcher they face all season. No pitcher is untouchable, but if I was ever to bet against the Brewers, this would be the game. I would never actually bet against them though. I don't want to jeopardize my chances at the hall of fame.

Of note for the Brewers: Marco Estrada is still in the rotation much to the chagrin of, like, everyone. I'm cool with it though. This should be a good test to see if Estrada is getting back on track. I know he got rocked for 7 runs in Colorado, but that's Colorado. Everyone got rocked. He also got the raw deal on more than one (non) error but I won't waste anymore time on that right now. I'm in the minority, but I really don't think he pitched that poorly in his last start and a Nationals team that hasn't been scoring a lot of runs or hitting a lot of home runs seems like a good match-up on paper.

Conclusion

I just don't feel good about this one. The Nationals have arguably the best pitching staff in the majors and the Brewers are facing their best starters. They've also got a shutdown bullpen that should be able to carry even the slightest of leads through the end of the game. Hope lies in the Nats' run scoring ability. Bryce Harper is still a couple weeks away from a return and the Nats offense has been mediocre. However, the Brewers are putting forth 2 of their shakiest starters, even though I have confidence in Garza and hope for Estrada. Still, I'm going 1 out of 3. Sorry.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs

Cubs vs. Reds, Game 1: Preview and Predictions

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Cincinnati heads North to face their NL Central rivals.

Cincinnati Reds 



@ Chicago Cubs

Monday, June 23, 2014
Wrigley Field

Alfredo Simon v. Jeff Samardzija

COMPLETE COVERAGE >

Rather wild weekend series, eh?

Fresh off taking two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays in a series that saw big hitting, bad defense, and a pair of stellar pitching performances backing up a failure you won't forget for years, the Cincinnati Reds set out for Chicago, where the Cubs await.  It'll be the first stop on a 3 city, 10 game road trip for the Reds, and they'll look to continue the momentum they've developed since the healthy returns of Mat Latos and Joey Votto to the dugout.

Standing in their way tonight will be Jeff Samardzija, who has cooled off significantly after a torrid start to his season.  While his overall season numbers are still quite good, Samardzija has gone just 1-2 with a 5.73 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and .880 OPS allowed over 22 IP in his last 4 starts the last 28 days, though that is weighed upon heavily by a start against the Milwaukee Brewers that saw him allow 8 ER in just 3 IP.  Against the Reds so far in 2014, Samardzija has allowed just 4 ER in 12.2 IP, and that'll be the kind of performance he'll be looking for this evening (though his 1.58 WHIP against the Reds in those innings suggests there's been some tap-dancing around runners on base.)

Taking the mound for the Reds will be Alfredo Simon and his league leading 10 arbitrary designations in a category that means nothing.  Seriously, Samardzija has a better ERA, more IP, better K/9, better K/BB, more bWAR, more fWAR, better FIP, better xFIP, better ERA+, better ERA-, higher GB %, and better HR/9 than Simon; Simon has 10 wins, Samardzija has 2.  Anyhoo, Simon will face the Cubs for the 2nd time in 2014, and he'll look to replicate something akin to the 6 IP, 2 ER, winning performance he had against them in GABP on April 29th.

Gone are the early season pitching-friendly conditions in Wrigley, though, and tonight's game will see mid 70's temperatures with upwards of 70% humidity and a chance for storms.  If the wind is blowing out, look out, as Jay Bruce has been June Brucing (and is still looking for his first career dinger off Samardzija).

Go Reds!  They're peteyhendrix's favorite team!

Bullpen Log

Reliever6/186/196/206/216/225 day totals
Carlos Contreras
1.0, 8p
1.0, 9p
2.0 IP, 17 pitches
Logan Ondrusek
1.1, 11p0.1, 10p

1.2 IP, 21 pitches
Sam LeCure
0.1, 4p0.1, 9p

0.2 IP, 13 pitches
J.J. Hoover2.2, 39p



2.2 IP, 39 pitches
Jonathan Broxton
0.2, 21p1.0, 23p

1.2 IP, 44 pitches
Manny Parra
0.2, 12p0.0, 4p

0.2 IP, 16 pitches
Aroldis Chapman
1.1, 20p0.2, 33p
1.0, 18p3.0 IP, 73 pitches
Jumbo Diaz0.2, 7p
1.0, 31p

1.2 IP, 38 pitches

Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki top vote-getters as MLB All-Star voting heats up

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The two captains of the Home Run Derby continue to garner the most All-Star votes, while a few Brewers players make a push for starting spots.

With two weeks left before the polls close, a number of compelling races are beginning to take shape in MLB's All-Star voting.

Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzkiboth of whom were named captains for the 2014 Home Run Derby on Monday, still lead all vote-getters and look likely to represent their leagues in the All-Star Game at Target Field.

Elsewhere, a few different Brewers players put themselves in contention for starting spots with strong weeks. Aramis Ramirez (1,279,902) has taken the lead at third base over David Wright (1,260,895), vaulting all the way up from fourth place in voting at the hot corner. In addition, Carlos Gomez (2,409,860) is now in line to start in the NL outfield alongside Yasiel Puig (2,468,376) and Andrew McCutchen (2,461,722), as the 28-year-old pushed past Giancarlo Stanton (2,130,519).

Two other Brewers, Jonathan Lucroy (1,911,745) and Jean Segura (1,272,273), moved up to second place at catcher and shortstop respectively, although neither looks likely to top the leading vote-getters at each position in Yadier Molina (2,600,853) and Tulowitzki.

Rounding out the NL infield, Paul Goldschmidt (1,962,386) and Chase Utley (2,090,110) still hold comfortable advantages on the left side after another week of voting.

In the AL, Derek Jeter (2,353,366) remains in position to start at shortstop, though Alexei Ramirez (1,933,117) has closed the gap slightly. Jeter's former middle-infield partner Robinson Cano (2,007,055) continues to lead a tight race at the keystone position over Ian Kinsler (1,338,272) and Dustin Pedroia (1,264,329).

At the corners, Miguel Cabrera (2,645,000) and Josh Donaldson (2,436,771) hold big leads over their fellow position mates, while Matt Wieters (1,852,770) is still the top vote-getter at catcher despite undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery last week. Derek Norris (1,486,850) and Brian McCann (1,344,076) sit just behind Wieters.

Bautista and Mike Trout (3,286,511) look like near-locks to start in the AL outfield, but the race for that final starting spot remains close. Melky Cabrera (1,674,232) is currently in third, yet Yoenis Cespedes (1,511,838) and Adam Jones (1,490,000) both trail the Jays outfielder by a slim margin.

Voting for the All-Star Game ends Thursday, July 3 at 11:59 p.m. ET, and the 2014 AL and NL All-Star teams will be revealed during the weekend of July 5-6.

MLB's 85th All-Star Game will take place on July 15.

Nationals 3-0 over Brewers in Miller Park: Gio Gonzalez with six scoreless for win

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The Washington Nationals took two straight from the Atlanta Braves to end their six-game homestand on a high note and beat the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers tonight to make it three in-a-row. Nationals 3-0 final in Miller Park.

Which Way To Auburndale Top 5:

5. Quick Recap: Did you know that Anthony Rendon walked more than he K'd in college? It's true, you can look it up. The Nationals 24-year-old third baseman took a one-out walk from Milwaukee Brewers' right-hander Matt Garza in the top of the third tonight in Miller Park and after taking third on a single by Jayson Werth, he came in to score on a three-run home run to center by Adam LaRoche that gave the Washington Nationals a 3-0 lead early in the series opener in Wisconsin.

Gio Gonzalez threw six scoreless innings in his second start back off the DL. Aaron Barret, Drew Storen and Rafael Soriano locked it down.

3-0 Nationals final.

4. Gio takes Wisconsin:Gio Gonzalez's last outing was a success, in that after a DL stint and two rehab starts, the 28-year-old lefty reported no issues related to the inflammation in his left shoulder which led to the first trip to the Disabled List in his major league career. Gonzalez gave up five hits, three walks and four runs, all earned in five innings pitched in that start, in which he threw 93 pitches, receiving no decision in what ended up a 6-5 win in Nationals Park.

"I credit our pitching coach Steve McCatty and Matt Williams for letting me go out there and build my confidence back up there..." -Gio Gonzalez on getting sent back out for the fifth

"He was okay," Nationals' manager Matt Williams said after the game.

"I think he felt fine, which is the most important thing. He wanted to go out for one more inning, but we couldn't let him do that. So I think overall his health is good. He got into one tough inning, but other than that he pitched pretty good."

Gonzalez, pulling positives from a start he admitted was not his "strongest outing" pointed to the fact that Williams and Nats' Pitching Coach Steve McCatty decided to send him back out for the fifth after a long, rough fourth inning.

"That fifth inning made me feel confident again," Gonzalez said. "Gave me that boost of confidence that I needed."

The outing against the Astros left Gonzalez with a (3-4) record, a 4.85 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 23 walks (3.72 BB/9) and 59 Ks (9.54 K/9) in 10 starts and 55 ⅔ IP so far in 2014. Tonight in Milwaukee, Wisconsin's Miller Park, the veteran of seven major league seasons was taking on the Brewers for the third time in his career.

In his two previous outings against the current NL Central leaders, Gonzalez was (1-0) before tonight, with a 2.77 ERA, six walks (4.15 BB/9) and nine Ks (6.23 K/9) in 13 IP over which Brewers' hitters put up a combined .182/.296/.227 line.

In one start in Miller Park before tonight, Gonzalez gave up five hits and five runs, four earned in a six-inning outing in 2012. Tonight in Milwaukee, his second start in Wisconsin began with a fly to center field...

1st:Denard Span settled in under a fly to center off Rickie Weeks' bat. Ryan Braun went down swinging at a 2-2 curve in the dirt. Brewers' backstop Jonathan Lucroy singled through the right side on a 1-2 curve for a two-out hit. Carlos Gomez fell behind 0-2 quickly, and grounded into a force at second on a 1-2 changeup, ending an 18-pitch first by Gonzalez.

2nd:Aramis Ramirez flew to left for the first out of the Brewers' second. Kris Davis grounded out to third for the second of two quick outs. Mark Reynolds went down swinging at a 3-2 change outside. 13-pitch frame, 31 total after two.

3rd: Brewers' shortstop Jean Segura lined a 91 mph 3-2 fastball to center for a leadoff hit in the home-half of the third inning. Matt Garza bunted Segura over/gave up an out. Segura stole third with Rickie Weeks at the plate and Weeks walked to put runners on the corner. Ryan Braun K'd swinging at an 0-2 curve way out of the zone low, leaving it up to Jonathan Lucroy, who battled for 11 pitches before taking ball four and walking to load the bases. Carlos Gomez stepped in with three on and two out and flew out to left to end a 31-pitch frame, after which Gonzalez was at 62 overall.

4th: Aramis Ramirez went down on a check-swing strike three. Khris Davis grounded out to third for out no.2. Mark Reynolds drew a two-out walk. Reynolds stole second with Jean Segura up, and took third on a wild pitch, but he was stranded there when Segura popped out to end an 18-pitch frame. 80 pitches overall.

5th: Matt Garza grounded back to the mound. Rickie Weeks K'd swinging at a nasty 2-2 change. Ryan Braun lined a two-out double to left field on a 2-0 change low in the zone. Jonathan Lucroy's fly to center brought a 16-pitch fifth to an end. 96 pitches in five scoreless.

6th: Carlos Gomez grounded out to third to start the Brewers' sixth. Aramis Ramirez walked with one down on Gonzalez's 108th pitch, but he was doubled up on a 6-4-3 DP off of Khris Davis's bat. 18-pitch frame. 114 pitches total in six innings.

Gio Gonzalez's Line: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 Ks, 114 P, 68 S, 7/4 GO/FO.

3. Garza vs the Nats: In four June starts before tonight's, 30-year-old Brewers' right-hander Matt Garza put up a 2.00 ERA, a 2.94 FIP, eight walks (2.67 BB/9) and 14 Ks (4.67 K/9) in 27 IP, over which he's held opposing hitters to a combined .243/.301/.346 line. Two of those starts were at home in Miller Park, where the veteran starter has a 2.89 ERA (as opposed to a 5.49 ERA away from Milwaukee) a 3.39 FIP (3.92 away) and a .227/.286/.362 line against, while opposing hitters have a .261/.339/.389 line against him in his road outings.

Garza was making his fifth career start opposite the Nationals, against whom he was (0-1) with a 6.41 ERA, eight walks (3.66 BB/9) and 23 Ks (10.52 K/9) in 19  ⅔ IP in his career before tonight, over which Nationals' hitters put up a .317/.378/.476 line against him.

In the first game of the Nats' three-game set in Milwaukee, Garza started the evening with a 10-pitch, 1-2-3 frame.

The first two Nationals in the second reached base with Adam LaRoche singling to left and Ryan Zimmerman drawing a walk. Ian Desmond's line-drive single to left loaded the bases, but Danny Espinosa K'd looking at a full-count fastball outside for out no.1. Jose Lobaton went down on a check-swing strike three on a 2-2 slider in the dirt. Gio Gonzalez? Grounder to short and a force at second. 21-pitch frame, 31 after two.

Anthony Rendon walked with one down in the third and took third on a line drive single to right by Jayson Werth. Adam LaRoche stepped up with runners on the corners and hit one out to center for a 3-run blast and a 3-0 lead. Garza's 21-pitch frame left him at 52 pitches after three.

A 10-pitch, 1-2-3 fourth left Garza at 62, trailing 3-0. Two quick outs in the fifth gave the Brewers' starter seven straight outs, but Jayson Werth's one-out infield single broke that streak of retired batters. Adam LaRoche's grounder to first ended an 11-pitch inning after which he was up to 73 pitches.

After a 15-pitch, 1-2-3 sixth, Garza was up to 88 pitches with 10 of 11 Nationals set down. A 16-pitch, 1-2-3 seventh left Garza at 104 total. 13 of 14 set down.

Matt Garza's Line: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 Ks, 1 HR, 104 P, 69 S, 9/5 GO/FO.

2. Creating Opps: It's something Matt Williams has talked about all season as the Nationals as a team have struggled with runners in scoring position and struggled to get men on base at times.

"We want to create those opportunities, we've been talking about it all year, right? So create the opportunities and then deliver on it..." -Matt Williams on Nats' approach on offense

The Nats were shut out in the first game of four with the Braves this past Thursday night and beaten 6-4 on Friday, but on Saturday and Sunday the bounced back with 3-0 and 4-1 wins to earn a split with their NL East rivals.

The difference? No difference really, just things working out when they created opportunities as far as Nats' skipper Matt Williams saw it.

"We want to create those opportunities, we've been talking about it all year, right?" Williams asked rhetorically.

"So create the opportunities and then deliver on it and in the last two days we've done that really well. Last night and certainly today, base hits with guys on second base and you add one at a time and it gives you an opportunity to win the game."

The Nationals didn't change anything about their approach, which the first-year skipper and former major league slugger said was actually the key.

"It's staying with the same one," he explained. "It's easy to get away from it and say, 'Boy, I can get us two here with a two-run homer,' when in fact to keep the line moving and get the single with the guy on second base is even more important because eventually if you do that then that hanging breaking ball becomes a two-run homer sometimes if you have that right approach and I think the last couple of days they've done it really well."

In the first game of Washington's three-game set in Milwaukee, the Nationals loaded the bases with no one out in the second, but came up empty.

Matt Garza gave up a walk and a single that put runners on the corners with one out in the third, and Adam LaRoche hit a full-count slider to center and over the painted yellow line for a 3-0 lead.

1. The Wrap-Up:Aaron Barrett took over on the mound for the Nationals in the Brewers' seventh and retired the side in order, striking out two in a 14-pitch frame.

Mike Fiers gave up a one-out single by Jayson Werth (3 for 4) in the top of the eighth, but after a walk to Adam LaRoche, he got a double play grounder out of Ryan Zimmerman. 3-0 Nats after seven and a ½ in Milwaukee.

Drew Storen took the mound in the bottom of the eighth. Rickie Weeks got sawn off on a grounder to second. Ryan Braun grounded out to short. Jonathan Lucroy grounded back to the mound to end a 9-pitch, 1-2-3 frame.

It was still tied after eight and a half... when... Tyler Clippard came out for the save opportunity since Rafael Soriano pitches in three straight games. Carlos Gomez worked the count full but K'd swinging. Aramis Ramirez was strikeout victim no.2. Khris Davis did too. Ballgame.

Nationals now 40-35


Game 75 WPA: The Shoestring Ejection. Nats 3, MIL 0

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Williams gets himself tossed, Gio struggles but allows no runs, and ALR provides the requisite offense. Also, BULLPEN DOMINATION!!

Chart_45__medium

Via Fangraphs (click to embiggen)

  • Shaky:Gio Gonzalez (+29.8%) somehow gets through 6 scoreless with 5 Ks and 4 walks, getting in and out of some big jams.
  • Graceful, effortless:Adam LaRoche (+25.0%) cranks a three-run dinger to dead center for all the Nats' runs tonight (+21.5%).
  • Now hitting:Jayson Werth (+7.6%) is 3-4 and Ian Desmond (+7.2%) is 2-4.
  • Spurned by WPA: Neither Aaron Barrett (+5.2%), Drew Storen (+4.8%), nor Tyler Clippard (+3.9%) have enough WPA left to qualify for a shutdown, despite combining for 3 perfect innings with 5 Ks.

Today's WPA brought to you by ejections:


    Wire Taps: Nationals beat Brewers, Matt Williams ejected, Bryce Harper & Wilson Ramos rehab

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    The Washington Nationals beat the Milwaukee Brewers. Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos helped the Potomac Nationals to a win. Matt Williams got ejected. Randy Knorr got to manage. All that and more in today's Wire Taps...

    Washington Nationals' Bench Coach Randy Knorr was pressed into action last night in the 3-0 win in Milwaukee when Nats' skipper Matt Williams was ejected for arguing balls and strikes and particularly a called strike three on Danny Espinosa, who K'd looking for the first of three outs as the Nationals wasted a bases loaded, no out opportunity in the second.

    The Nationals took a 3-0 lead in the third, however, with Adam LaRoche's three-run blast providing all the offense they needed to beat the Brewers. Knorr told reporters after that there was nothing to it.

    "There's a couple hiccups, but that's expected, all year I think they're the best in the league and they showed it tonight again and they continued to show it." -Randy Knorr on the Nationals' bullpen

    "This one was an easy one when we're winning," Knorr said. "Those are always easy, it's when you're losing and he gets tossed and you're trying to get back in the game."

    Gio Gonzalez threw six scoreless then Aaron Barrett, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard completed the shutout.

    "They're pretty good out there," Knorr said of the Nats' bullpen. "You feel pretty confident."

    "They've been fantastic all year. There's a couple hiccups, but that's expected, all year I think they're the best in the league and they showed it tonight again and they continued to show it. And it's a good feeling when after the sixth inning and you know you can go to those guys and they're going to hold it for you."

    There was, however, a slight deviation from the normal plan since Rafael Soriano was unavailable after pitching for three straight games on consecutive days.

    "We always had them set up 7-8-9 with Soriano," Knorr explained. "Soriano's been pitching a ton over the last week and we figured let's just move them up. We'll give Drew the eighth and it gave us a chance, cause Clippard has pitched a lot and if we used Clippard before Storen and we scored an extra run we couldn't give Clippard that chance of not pitching today, but it didn't work out and he pitched and pitched great and it worked out for us."

    Clippard got his first save of the season. The Nationals got their 40th win. We've got lots of links, starting... RIGHT NOW!!!:

    • THE BIG STORY!!!:

    • "Harper said he is not using a special glove for defense, but does wear the Ryan Zimmerman-inspired mitt for baserunning to protect the thumb." - "Harper has single, walk and run scored, Ramos three-run homer for Potomac" - Byron Kerr, MASNSports.com


    • NATS BEAT:

    • "Bryce Harper reached base in both of his plate appearances, and Wilson Ramos went 3-for-4 with a 3-run homer Monday night in a rehab game with Class A Potomac for both members of the Nationals’ starting lineup." -"Bryce Harper reaches base twice, Wilson Ramos homers in rehab game" - Mark Zuckerman, Nats Insider

    • "Harper returned to the field for the first time since he tore a ligament in his left thumb April 26, playing three innings in left field Monday night at Class A Potomac." - "Bryce Harper starts rehab assignment, Wilson Ramos closes in on return" - Adam Kilgore, The Washington Post

    • "Harper said he felt some vibration when he connected on his single, which aggravated his thumb. But he noted that's part of the process of returning from such an injury." -"Bryce Harper singles, plays three innings in first rehab appearance" - Daniel Popper, nationals.com: News

    • "Williams was tossed by home plate umpire Mark Wegner for arguing balls and strikes, leaving Knorr in charge the rest of the way." - "Nationals Pastime: Knorr and Williams on the 3-0 win and the skipper's ejection" - Dan Kolko, MASNSports.com

    • "'He goes, ‘So I’m getting a day off?’" Williams said with a laugh before Monday’s game. "‘I didn’t say that. I said you need a day.’" - "Matt Williams would like to give Ian Desmond a day off; Nationals need a pitcher Saturday" - James Wagner, The Washington Post

    • "Nationals manager Matt Williams was ejected during Monday's 3-0 victory over the Brewers. It marked the first time Williams was tossed from a game as a manager." -"Washington Nationals' Matt Williams ejected for first time as manager" - Bill Ladson, nationals.com: News

    • "Matt Williams was ejected for the first time in his career as Nationals manager after arguing balls and strikes in the second inning on Monday night in Milwaukee." -"Matt Williams ejected for first time as Nationals manager" - James Wagner, Washington Post

    • ""Straying from the scouting report, Gonzalez flipped 27 changeups the Brewers' way over six innings to silence what had been a screaming-hot offense." -'Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers - June 23, 2014" - Adam McCalvy, MLB.com MIL Recap

    • "Among pitchers, Strasburg, Soriano, in that order. Then Clippard. Stammen may never make an All-Star team but his three-year performance deserves it. Among players, only Rendon. LaRoche has been held back by missing 17 games -- a high number for good 1st basemen." - "Ask Boswell: Redskins, Nationals and Washington sports" - Thomas Boswell, The Washington Post

    • "First baseman Adam LaRoche and third baseman Anthony Rendon deserve votes." - "Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals need help at polls in All-Star race" - Bill Ladson, nationals.com: News

    • "Leading the way for Milwaukee’s offense have been Ryan Braun (10 HR, 39 RBI), catcher Jonathan Lucroy (.331 BA, 8 HR, 39 RBI) and a cast of all-around solid hitters." - "State of the Nats: Division leaders square off" - Chase Hughes, Nats Insider

    • "Zimmerman scooped up groundballs and fired across the diamond with relative ease." - "Ryan Zimmerman takes grounders at third base" - James Wagner, The Washington Post

    • "Strasburg was disappointed that he wasn't able to attend Gwynn's funeral on Saturday." "Strasburg plans to quit chewing tobacco" - Bill Ladson, nationals.com: News

    • "At the end of the night, both the bottom line and the trend line were extremely positive for the Washington Nationals." - "Nationals headed in right direction behind strong pitching" - Mike Bauman, nationals.com: News

    • "In the just-completed four-game series against the Braves, Espinosa connected for five base hits and was able to get some quality bunts down for singles to get on base." - "Espinosa widens stance at plate to help improve batting numbers" - Byron Kerr, MASNSports.com

    • "Danny Espinosa has a history of a low batting average and a high strikeout rate, but he may have found the solution to his hitting woes." - "Nats’ Danny Espinosa has adjusted his hitting stance and it seems to be working" - Jason Butt, The Washington Post

    • "With the second-place Braves idle, Washington is now two games ahead in the NL East." - "Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers - June 23, 2014" - Bill Ladson, MLB.com WSH Recap

    • "Gonzalez climbed the mound at Miller Park on Monday to face the hot-hitting Milwaukee Brewers, the team with the best record in the National League, and he delivered six scoreless innings." - "Nationals vs. Brewers: In second start back from DL, Gonzalez impressive in 3-0 victory" - James Wagner, The Washington Post

    • "Zimmerman said he would ramp up his activity at third base in fielding practice over the coming days, mostly to prepare for when outfielder Bryce Harper returns after surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb." -"Nationals Pastime: Zimmerman feels good after taking grounders at third base" - Pete Kerzel, MASNSports.com

    • "Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann, a native of Auburndale, Wis., returns to his home state Tuesday night hoping to stay hot in what has been an incredible June." - "Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers - June 24, 2014" - Joe Morgan, MLB.com Preview

    • Your Daily Message from the Dalai Lama on Twitter (@DalaiLama):

    • NATIONAL(S) BEAT:

    • "Harper has played center before and likes the position. In theory, Zimmerman could play left, Harper center and Denard Span could be benched." - "Why Tanaka may miss the All-Star Game — much to the Yankees’ delight" - Joel Sherman, New York Post

    • "Junior James Bourque (Ann Arbor, Mich./Huron) of the University of Michigan baseball team has signed a contract to play professionally with the Washington Nationals organization." -"Bourque Inks Contract with Washington Nationals" - MGOBLUE.COM - University of Michigan Official Athletic Site

    • "James Bourque, a 6-4, 180-pound right-handed pitcher from the University of Michigan, has signed a pro contract with the Washington Nationals organization." - "James Bourque signs with Nationals, gives up final season at Michigan" - The Detroit News

    • "Jordan Zimmermann will experience another homecoming of sorts tonight." -"Former Pointer Zimmermann to face Brewers on Tuesday" - Stevens Point Journal Media | stevenspointjournal.com

    • "One good outing. One bad pitch. That's all it took Monday night for the Washington Nationals to beat the Brewers, 3-0." - "Nationals 3, Brewers 0" - Michael Hunt, Three-run jack is all Nationals need

    • "So who is the ace for the Washington Nationals, who have one of the best rotations in the National League?" -"Fister making bid to become Nationals ace" - David Driver, Yahoo Sports

    • "But a closer look at the numbers says Roark, who's been great pitching for the Washington Nationals, belongs among the National League's elite on July 15." -"Steve Soucie: Wilmington's Roark deserves All-Star selection" - Steve Soucie, The Daily Journal: Sports

    • NATS MINORS:

    • "Another Washington Nationals draft pick is expected to make their Auburn Doubledays debut tonight." -"Doubledays Pregame: AAC player of the year Gardner expected to make Auburn debut" - Jeremy Houghtaling, Auburn Citizen

    • "RHP Andrew Cooper (5-1) tossed three shutout innings in relief for Hagerstown to earn the win. He replaced starting LHP Brett Mooneyham, who went four innings in his 2014 Suns debut." - "Suns take first game from Legends 3-1" - Eli Pearlstein, Hagerstown Suns News

    • "Wilson Ramos stole the Major League spotlight as the Potomac Nationals (3-1, 2-0) beat the Salem Red Sox (1-4, 1-4) 5-2 on Monday night." -"Ramos and Harper Shine in Rehab Appearances, Nats Win 5-2" - Potomac Nationals News

    • "Pivetta, Ward, Laird Win Weekly Honors" - Luke Erickson, NationalsProspects.com

    • "An overflow crowd of 7,804 saw a major-leaguer on a rehab assignment lead the Nationals over the Red Sox 5-2 at Pfitzner Stadium." -"Rehabbing Nationals overshadow Red Sox" - Roanoke Times: Sports

    • "At the start of the season, officials from the parent Washington Nationals promised more depth at both the major league level and throughout the organization." -"Streaking Syracuse Chiefs winning at a clip unsurpassed in at least a decade" - Lindsay Kramer, syracuse.com

    • "The Syracuse Chiefs, the Triple-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals, used a four-run eighth inning to race past the Durham Bulls, 7-4, on Monday afternoon." -"Chiefs rally late, finish sweep of Bulls" - Syracuse Chiefs News

    • NATSTOWN:

    • "Here's Bryce Harper's oven mitt: 'We're gonna go bake.'" - Nats Enquirer

    • "When the USA scored for the second time during Sunday’s World Cup match vs. Portugal, international broadcasts caught a glimpse of a fan dressed as Teddy Roosevelt celebrating the go-ahead goal." - "Video Meet the man who dressed as Teddy Roosevelt at the World Cup" - Presidents Race Fan, Let Teddy Win!

    • "Baseball Prospectus Invades Washington DC" - Ryan Sullivan, NatsGM

    • "The Nationals Review Podcast Episode 33" - Josh Coleman, The Nationals Review

    • NL EAST UPDATES:

    Marlins: "Left-hander Andrew Heaney, who began the season as Miami's top prospect, certainly lived up to that billing in his Major League debut on June 19." - "Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies - June 24, 2014" - Joe Morgan, MLB.com Preview

    Phillies: "Cliff Lee will throw his third bullpen session on Tuesday as he continues to progress toward a return from the disabled list." - "Cliff Lee nearing next step of elbow rehab" - Corey Seidman, Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia

    Mets: "Catcher Travis d'Arnaud is expected to join the team for tonight's game against Oakland." -"Mets notes: Travis d'Arnaud returns" - Matt Ehalt, NorthJersey.com

    Braves: "Recently the Braves changed their lineup dramatically for the first time this season." - "What the Braves Lineup Changes Mean for You" - Ben Duronio, FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

    • Random Link:

    Minor League Notes, 2014-06-24

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    Dustin DeMuth does it again

    Nashville Sounds (AAA) 40-39
    Won 8-6 at Salt Lake Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)

    Huntsville Stars (AA) 49-26
    Won 6-2 at Pensacola Blue Wahoos (CIN) (box / pbp)

    Brevard County Manatees (High A) 39-32
    Won 7-4 at Dunedin Blue Jays (TOR) (box / pbp)

    Helena Brewers (Rookie) 3-4
    Lost 7-0 at Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

    AZL Brewers (Rookie) 3-1
    Won 9-1 at AZL Indians (box / pbp)

    Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

    BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
    Caleb GindlNashvilleLF4123000.2602B
    Hunter MorrisNashville1B5120010.274
    Pete OrrNashville2B4131001.294SB
    Matt PagnozziNashvilleC4123000.224SB, HR
    Kentrail DavisHuntsvilleRF2221200.261SB, 2B
    D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF4110020.2112B
    Jason RogersHuntsville3B4013010.283
    Orlando ArciaBrevard County2B5121010.264
    Nathan OrfBrevard CountyRF5221000.296
    Yadiel RiveraBrevard CountySS4030000.255SB, 2B
    Victor RoacheBrevard CountyLF4120020.1982B
    Tyrone TaylorBrevard CountyCF4110100.260
    Dustin DeMuthHelena3B4020000.440
    Jake GatewoodAZLSS5110021.235
    Monte HarrisonAZLCF3311000.400SB, HR
    PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
    Taylor JungmannNashville6.04222306.17W, 3-4HBP (2)
    Andy MoyeHuntsville5.03004402.12W, 3-0
    Austin RossBrevard County7.17440302.98W, 7-1WP
    Devin WilliamsHelena5.07553404.91L, 0-1WP
    Angel VenturaAZL5.06000100.00W, 1-0

    5 Under-the-Radar Impact Fantasy Prospects On Their Way

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    Let's take a look at 5 under-the-radar prospects that could make an impact in fantasy leagues down the stretch.

    The Super-Two Deadline has passed, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t more prospects ready to make their way to big league ballparks and into your fantasy lineup. A few weeks ago, we discussed 7 of the top prospects ready to be called-up and make an immediate impact in fantasy leagues. Since then, Gregory Polanco, Oscar Taveras, Jonathan Singleton, and Andrew Heaney have all received the call. But while everyone in your league should be well aware of the names listed above by now, let’s take a look at some of the under-the-radar prospects that could get the call soon and become potential impact players in your fantasy league down the stretch in 2014.

    Jimmy Nelson– The top prospect in the Brewers’ organization is about to go from under-the-radar to being on everyone’s radar. The right-handed pitcher has put up stellar numbers in Triple-A on the year. The most impressive of those stats might be holding opponents to a .183 batting average. The 8-2 record and 9.6 K’s per 9 IP aren’t too shabby either. The 25 year-old pitched great in 1 start for the Brewers earlier this year while filling in for an injured Yovani Gallardo. The leash on Marco Estrada is getting shorter by the outing, as the Brewers will look to Jimmy Nelson for an upgrade as soon as a need presents itself.

    Anthony Ranaudo– This righty is one of the many quality arms in the Red Sox farm system. The 24 year-old returned strong from injury in 2012 and has put up stellar numbers ever since. The 6’’7" starting pitcher has already logged 20 starts in Triple-A since 2013 while keeping his ERA under 3 during that span. With inconsistencies plaguing the back end of the Red Sox rotation, it might not be long before we see Ranuado pitching at Fenway Park.

    Micah Johnson– Let’s face it, Gordon Beckham’s play up to this point in his career has been less than inspiring. The White Sox have to consider 2B one of their weakest-links at this point. Enter stolen base threat Micah Johnson. The speedster logged 84 SB’s between 3 levels in 2013. Johnson was promoted to Triple-A just a few weeks ago, and hasn’t slowed down yet despite facing tougher competition. We could be just one more Gordon Beckham cold streak away from seeing a changing of the guard at second base on the South Side.

    Michael Foltynewicz– This big right-handed power pitcher checks in around the bottom half on most Astros’ top 10 prospect lists, but don’t let that fool you. Folty would be a top 3 prospect in most organizations. The prospect out of Sterling, Illinois was drafted by the Astros with the 19th overall pick in the 1st round of the 2010 MLB Player Draft. Foltynewicz has put up decent numbers throughout his minor league career and has spent all of 2014 at Triple-A. Just look at the success Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are having this year, and Folty’s skill set trumps them easily. With the recent youth movement in Houston, this SP could be the next prospect to make a splash for the Astros.

    Domingo Santana– Or maybe it will be this guy. At just 21 years-old, Santana is smoking Triple-A pitching this year with a stat-line of .294 BA, 11 HR’s, 46 RBI’s, 42 R’s, and 4 SB’s.  The outfield in Houston is starting to get crowded after trading for Dexter Fowler and the promotion of George Springer. But there is still 1 spot left to claim, and the carousel of outfielders the Astros have been running out there in left field won’t block anybody worthy of a chance. There are thoughts around the industry that Santana could be held back until next year because of his age, but at this pace, he will force the Astros hand soon.

     

    Poll
    Out of the 5 prospects listed above, which do you think will have the largest fantasy impact down the stretch?

      156 votes |Results

    The Greinke Trade Revisited

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    Trades are best judged years down the road. Four seasons later, we have some perspective with which to judge the Greinke trade--and some insight into how the Myers trade will play out.

    On December 19, 2010, the Kansas City Royals traded Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.

    On July 27, 2012, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Zack Greinke to the Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels for Jean Segura, Ariel Pena, and Johnny Hellweg.

    On December 9, 2012, the Kansas City Royals traded Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Patrick Leonard, and Jake Odorizzi for James Shields and Wade Davis.

    All of these deals hinged upon Greinke's unwillingness to stay in Kansas City, where he was (understandably) unhappy with losing.  That simple statement--'I want a trade'--began an avalanche that consisted of 3 separate deals involving 13 players.  This is one of my favorite parts of baseball trades; for instance, KC traded Carlos Beltran in 2004 and echoes of that decision remained until the Royals cut ties with Chris Getz in December 2013, almost a decade later.  Likewise, the Greinke deal will continue to reverberate through baseball space-time for years.

    However, we have enough data to look at the initial trade and to begin looking at the second trade.  Let's take a look at the elements of each trade and how it has worked out for each team.

    Trade 1: Royals/Brewers

    Royals get:

    • Alcides Escobar, 23, $500,000, pre-arb
    • Lorenzo Cain, 24, $500,000, pre-arb
    • Jake Odorizzi, 20, low A
    • Jeremy Jeffress, 22, $500,000, pre-arb

    Combined fWAR for Royals:  12.9

    Combined bWAR for Royals:  14.9

    Brewers get:

    • Zack Greinke, 26, 2 years/$27 million
    • Yuniesky Betancourt, 28, 1 year/$4.3 million

    Combined fWAR for Brewers:  7.2

    Combined bWAR for Brewers:  3.2

    The Brewers, seeking extra firepower for a playoff run, decided to trade for a good starter, that starter being Greinke.  It worked out for them, as they did make the playoffs that year.  The next year, however, the Brewers regressed and were bad, which led to the decision to sell on Greinke at midseason.  Curiously, the Brewers brought Yuni back in 2013 for no apparent reason.

    The Royals got a quartet of players, none of which had significant upside.  At the time, Jeff Zimmerman was not pleased at this trade, criticizing it as a trade for needed parts instead of a trade for the best parts.  Going through comments of that article is pretty amusing, as some people vehemently hate it and others are more or less 'eh'.

    Now, we can see more clearly.  Escobar is a league-average player, safe to put up 2 WAR on average with some slight variation.  While that's nothing crazy, league average players are valuable, and the Royals happen to be paying Omar Infante $30 million over the next four years to be just that.  Cain, on the other hand, is more valuable but will be limited by his injury-prone nature.  Despite this, Cain is about a 3 WAR player and has yet to get deep into arbitration.

    Jeffress spent a couple of plagued years with the Royals, but did not pan out as minor league arms often do.  Finally, Odorizzi had a cup of coffee in 2012 with the Royals before being traded to the Rays.

    Trade 2: Brewers/Angels

    Brewers get:

    • Jean Segura, 22, $500,000, pre-arb rookie
    • Ariel Pena, 23, AA
    • Johnny Hellweg, 23, AAA

    Combined fWAR for Brewers:  3.9

    Combined bWAR for Brewers:  4.6

    Angels get:

    • Zack Greinke, 28, 1/2 year/$6.75 million

    Combined fWAR for Angels:  1.2

    Combined bWAR for Agnels:  1.4

    The Brewers, sagging in 2012, decided to trade Greinke.  They found their suitors in the Angels, who were interested in shoring up their rotation on a rent-a-pitcher to propel them to the playoffs.  Greinke was very good for them and they attempted valiantly, but they placed 3rd in the division and missed the Wild Card by 4 games.

    In return for a chance at a playoff berth, the Angels gave up shortstop Jean Segura (who, interestingly, played his major league debut for the Angels and was immediately traded) and a couple of minor league arms in Hellweg and Pena.  Pena is still in the minors, and Hellweg has started 7 games for the Brewers (posting a Hocheverian 6.75 ERA), but the real prize is Segura.  Segura was an All-Star last year at the ripe age of 23, and Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs have him at 3+ WAR for 2013.  This year he's not hitting nearly as well, but he is under team control through 2018 and doesn't reach arbitration until 2016.  All that for half a season of Greinke.

    Trade 3: Royals/Rays

    Royals get:

    • James Shields, 30, 2 years/$24.5 million
    • Wade Davis, 26, 2 years/$7.6 million, 3 options/$25 million
    • Elliott Johnson, 28, $500,000, pre-arb

    Combined fWAR for Royals:  8.7

    Combined bWAR for Royals: 3.1

    Rays get:

    • Wil Myers, 21, AAA
    • Mike Montgomery, 22, AAA
    • Jake Odorizzi, 22, $500,000, pre-arb rookie
    • Patrick Leonard, 19, Rookie League

    Combined fWAR for Rays:  5.4

    Combined bWAR for Rays:  2.3

    Ah, The Trade.  Moore traded his best prospect (not necessarily best player, but unquestionably his best prospect) for James Shields and Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson.  You probably forgot about Johnson, because I did.  The cornerstone of the deal for the Rays was obviously Myers, and he won Rookie of the Year Award while hitting his way to .293/.354/.478.  This year, Myers was not nearly as good and is now out for the year with an injury.  Meanwhile, Shields, the cornerstone for the Royals, pitched 228 innings and allowed a 3.15 ERA and 4.5 fWAR.  This year, Shields is Shieldsy, though slightly less so. If the Royals went to the playoffs last year, all would be forgiven (for now), but they did not.  The Royals have one more year to go to the playoffs under Shields.  We shall see if that will happen, just as we will see quite how this trade goes.

    Winner

    There are no medals for winning or losing a trade, and the reality is often grey enough that there is no clear winner.  This is still true in this case.  Besides, good trades don't necessarily even have winners or losers.  However, if taking a simplistic approach, I declare the winner to be...

    ...The Royals!  Averaging fWAR and bWAR, the Royals have amassed 13.9 WAR, while the Brewers have amassed 9.5 WAR.

    Of course, this doesn't say everything.  The reason why teams trade for specific players under limited control is to 'get them over the hump', per say, and a playoff berth cannot be quantifiable in terms of WAR of pWAZ or GR!T or Polk Points.  The Brewers made the playoffs the year they made the trade for Greinke, which was their point in acquiring him all along; you could say that they won the trade there.  In addition, quantifying partial values (like Odorizzi in the Myers/Shields trade) is very difficult--to what end is Odorizzi responsible for the trade?


    Regardless, the price for the Brewers' trade for Greinke was very high.  That trade boiled down to two key players: Cain and Escobar.  Both players are under control through 2017; Cain's first year of arbitration is next year, and Escobar is under an extension that pays him only $3 million next year with team options for 2016 and 2017.  Taking the rough estimate that I talked about earlier--about 5 WAR combined per year--Escobar and Cain will be worth another 15 WAR, bringing the total WAR accrued from the Greinke trade close to 30.  Even if Escobar and Cain are merely league average, the Royals will likely gather 25+ WAR from those two players.

    So how does this factor into the Shields trade?  Well, league average players are valuable.  The Royals acquired two players who, combined, grade out as a solid, above average duo.  That has been and will continue to be extremely valuable, especially at the cheap price that young talent is paid.  The Rays acquired Wil Myers who, as a 22 year old, put up 2.4 fWAR in under 100 games.  Even Myers never puts up more than 2.5 WAR in a season, he is under control through 2019, another 5 years.  If Myers is closer to the 3.5 WAR player that a top prospect might become, he'll be worth 17.5 WAR.  This is not to mention any contribution that Odorizzi, Montgomery, or Leonard will create.

    At this moment, it looks like the Greinke trade is a success; the Royals have control over two valuable players for another few years.  Unfortunately, the Royals will be on the outside looking in at the Rays' continual exploitation of Royal prospects starting next year.  I don't look forward to that.

    2014 BCB NL All-Star Roster Vote: Final Thoughts

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    Let's recap the series and what the Brewers chances are of making the team.

    This is part nine of a nine-part series where we look at each position in the National League for the All-Star roster. We will see how different contributors constructed their All-Star rosters, as well as which players deserve to make the team. Check the storystream in the right bar for previous entries in the series.

    Let's finish up the series today with some things we have seen over the course of the series. Looking through what the contributors have to say, here's what we should expect for the All-Star team for the Brewers.

    Brewers that should be a lock for the team: Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez
    Brewers that have a decent chance at the team: Ryan Braun, Kyle Lohse, Will Smith, Aramis Ramirez
    Brewers that have an outside chance at the team: Francisco Rodiguez, Zach Duke
    Brewers in the vote but have virtually no chance: Mark Reynolds, Rickie Weeks, Jean Segura, Khris Davis

    It's clear that Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez should be on the team. If either didn't make the team, it would be a complete snub. Lucroy is leading catchers in fWAR & bWAR, and Gomez is third in both in the outfield. Even if they aren't starters, they should be on the team.

    After that, it becomes a tougher choice. Ryan Braun, Kyle Lohse, and Will Smith all have chances to make the team. If Ryan Braun can get his votes up, he might make it in the outfield, but it would be very tough to make it through the player vote or manager choice. Kyle Lohse and Will Smith have chances through the player vote or manager selections, though they have some competition in each case. Meanwhile, if you asked me yesterday, I would have said that Aramis Ramirez only had an outside chance at the team. However, because of a lack of depth at the position, and the Brewers getting the ballot boxes stuffed, Aramis Ramirez is first at the position again. If it holds, he would be on the team.

    On the long shot side, Zach Duke and Francisco Rodriguez could be outside manager's choices. Beyond that, anyone else who would make the team from the Brewers would be a complete surprise. Mark Reynolds, Rickie Weeks, Jean Segura, and Khris Davis are among the leaders at their positions in votes, but any of them making the team would be a complete surprise.

    Breaking down the results a little more, how many votes each Brewer received:

    Jonathan Lucroy: 8
    Carlos Gomez: 8
    Ryan Braun: 5
    Kyle Lohse: 5
    Will Smith: 5
    Zach Duke: 2
    Mark Reynolds: 1

    I had put together some polls to get a community vote as well. However, the polls got too few votes to put together results. I may post the results in the comments in the next day or two, but unfortunately, it wasn't enough to put together the results into a roster.

    Let's finish with a review of everyone's roster. Who put together the best team? Who's team is just crazy? Put your opinions in the comments below.


    CheeseandcornDerek HarveyFred HofstetterHangwithem Rach
    Starting CJonathan LucroyJonathan LucroyJonathon LucroyJonathan Lucroy
    Starting 1BAnthony RizzoPaul GoldschmidtPaul GoldschmidtFreddie Freeman
    Starting 2BChase UtleyChase UtleyChase UtleyChase Utley
    Starting SSTroy TulowitzkiTroy TulowitzkiTroy TulowitzkiTroy Tulowitzki
    Starting 3BTodd FrazierDavid WrightTodd FrazierDavid Wright
    Starting OFYasiel PuigCarlos GomezCarlos GomezCarlos Gomez
    Starting OFGiancarlo StantonGiancarlo StantonYasiel PuigGiancarlo Stanton
    Starting OFCarlos GomezYasiel PuigGiancarlo StantonYasiel Puig
    Reserve CYadier MolinaYadier MolinaCarlos RuizYadier Molina
    Reserve 1BFreddie Freeman (DH)Freddie FreemanFreddie FreemanPaul Goldschmidt
    Reserve 2B Neil WalkerDaniel MurphyDaniel MurphyNeil Walker
    Reserve SSHanley RamirezJimmy RollinsJimmy RollinsChris Owings
    Reserve 3BMatt CarpenterTodd FrazierMatt CarpenterTodd Frazier
    Reserve OFJustin UptonJustin UptonJustin UptonAndrew McCutchen
    Reserve OFAndrew McCutchenAndrew McCutchenHunter PenceJustin Upton (DH)
    Reserve OFSeth SmithRyan Braun (DH)Andrew McCutchenCharlie Blackmon
    Position BenchPaul GoldschmidtSeth SmithAnthony Rizzo (DH)Adrian Gonzalez
    Position BenchDaniel MurphyCharlie BlackmonAJ PollockDee Gordon
    Position BenchA.J. PollockBuster PoseySeth SmithSeth Smith
    Position BenchHunter PenceNolan ArenandoDee GordonBuster Posey
    Alt. PositionNolan ArenadoAnthony RendonJason HeywardRyan Braun
    Pitcher #1Johnny CuetoAdam WainwrightStephen StrasburgTim Hudson
    Pitcher #2Adam WainwrightJohnny CuetoZack GreinkeJulio Teheran
    Pitcher #3Tim HudsonJeff SamardzijaMadison BumgarnerJohnny Cueto
    Pitcher #4Jeff SamardzijaStephen StrasburgJohnny CuetoAdam Wainwright
    Pitcher #5Zack GreinkeCliff LeeAdam WainwrightZack Greinke
    Pitcher #6Michael WachaMichael WachaMichael WachaJason Hammel
    Pitcher #7Madison BumgarnerMadison BumgarnerCraig KimbrelJeff Samardzija
    Pitcher #8Julio TeheranClayton KershawWill SmithJosh Beckett
    Pitcher #9Craig KimbrelKyle LohseKenley JansenCraig Kimbrel
    Pitcher #10Huston StreetCraig KimbrelPat NeshekJean Machi
    Pitcher #11Rafael SorianoSteve ChisekCliff LeeWill Smith
    Pitcher #12Francisco RodriguezWill SmithJeff SamardzijaHuston Street
    Pitcher #13Tony WatsonKenley JansenJulio TeheranSergio Romo
    Alt. Pitcher #1Cliff LeeZack GreinkeKyle LohseTrevor Rosenthal
    Alt. Pitcher #2Kyle LohseAaron HarangIan KennedySteve Cishek
    Alt. Pitcher #3Jean MachiAndrew CashnerAaron HarangKenley Jansen


    -JP-Jordan MaderNoah JaroshNPetrashek
    Starting CJonathan LucroyJonathan LucroyJonathan LucroyJonathan Lucroy
    Starting 1BPaul GoldschmidtPaul GoldschmidtAnthony RizzoFreddie Freeman
    Starting 2BChase UtleyChase UtleyChase UtleyChase Utley
    Starting SSTroy TulowitzkiTroy TulowitzkiTroy TulowitzkiTroy Tulowitzki
    Starting 3BTodd FrazierTodd FrazierTodd FrazierMatt Carpenter
    Starting OFGiancarlo StantonGiancarlo StantonYasiel PuigGiancarlo Stanton
    Starting OFYasiel PuigCarlos GomezGiancarlos StantonYasiel Puig
    Starting OFCarlos GomezYasiel PuigCarlos GomezCarlos Gomez
    Reserve CYadier MolinaYadier MolinaYadier MolinaDevin Mesoraco
    Reserve 1BAnthony RizzoFreddie FreemanPaul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt
    Reserve 2B Daniel MurphyDee GordonDaniel MurphyDee Gordon
    Reserve SSIan DesmondAndrelton SimmonsHanley RamirezHanley Ramirez
    Reserve 3BDavid WrightMatt CarpenterMatt CarpenterTodd Frazier
    Reserve OFAndrew McCutchenAndrew McCutchenMike MorseCharlie Blackmon
    Reserve OFJustin Upton (DH)Justin Upton (DH)Andrew McCutchenAndrew McCutchen
    Reserve OFSeth SmithCharlie BlackmonSeth SmithRyan Braun
    Position BenchFreddie FreemanSeth SmithFreddie FreemanMark Reynolds
    Position BenchDevin MesoracoA.J. PollockJustin UptonAnthony Rendon
    Position BenchMatt CarpenterDaniel MurphyRyan BraunJason Heyward
    Position BenchRyan BraunAnthony RizzoAnthony RendonAnthony Rizzo
    Alt. PositionHunter PenceHunter PenceNolan ArenadoYadier Molina
    Pitcher #1Stephen StrasburgJohnny CuetoAdam WainwrightJohnny Cueto
    Pitcher #2Johnny CuetoAdam WainwrightJohnny CuetoStephen Strasburg
    Pitcher #3Adam WainwrightMadison BumgarnerStephen StrasburgAdam Wainwright
    Pitcher #4Zack GreinkeZack GreinkeMadison BumgarnerMichael Wacha
    Pitcher #5Madison BumgarnerTim HudsonZack GrienkeMadison Bumgarner
    Pitcher #6Clayton KershawJulio TeheranTim HudsonZack Greinke
    Pitcher #7Tim HudsonStephen StrasburgJulio TeheranAndrew Cashner
    Pitcher #8Jeff SamardzijaKyle LohseAndrew CashnerJonathan Niese
    Pitcher #9Kyle LohseTony WatsonJeff SamardzijaKenley Jansen
    Pitcher #10Craig KimbrelSteve CishekCraig KimbrelFrancisco Rodriguez
    Pitcher #11Steve CishekWill SmithJean MachiPat Neshek
    Pitcher #12Pat NeshekHuston StreetZach DukeWill Smith
    Pitcher #13Zack DukeCraig KimbrelKenley JansenCraig Kimbrel
    Alt. Pitcher #1Jason HammelJeff SamardzijaMichael WachaCliff Lee
    Alt. Pitcher #2Jordan ZimmermanNathan EovaldiSteve CishekJeff Samardzija
    Alt. Pitcher #3Ian KennedyMichael WachaTony WatsonAaron Harang

    Finally, for reading this far down, Hangwithem Rach also made a roster for the AL. Here it is:


    Hangwithem Rach
    Starting CTyler Flowers
    Starting 1BMiguel Cabrera
    Starting 2BIan Kinsler
    Starting SSAlexei Ramirez
    Starting 3BJosh Donaldson
    Starting OFMike Trout
    Starting OFJose Bautista
    Starting OFMichael Brantley
    Starting DHNelson Cruz
    Reserve CDerek Norris
    Reserve 1BJose Abreu
    Reserve 2B Robinson Cano
    Reserve SSDerek Jeter
    Reserve 3BAdrian Beltre
    Reserve OFShin-Soo Choo
    Reserve OFAdam Jones
    Reserve OFAlex Rios
    Position BenchAlbert Pujols
    Position BenchBrian Dozier
    Position BenchVictor Martinez
    Alt. PositionAlex Gordon
    Pitcher #1Masahiro Tanaka
    Pitcher #2Yu Darvish
    Pitcher #3Sonny Gray
    Pitcher #4Felix Hernandez
    Pitcher #5Scott Kazmir
    Pitcher #6Mark Buehrle
    Pitcher #7Dallas Keuchel
    Pitcher #8Jesse Chavez
    Pitcher #9Chris Sale
    Pitcher #10Max Scherzer
    Pitcher #11Darren O'Day
    Pitcher #12Dellin Betances
    Pitcher #13Koji Uehara
    Alt. Pitcher #1Corey Kluber
    Alt. Pitcher #2Zach Britton
    Alt. Pitcher #3Jake Petricka

    Nationals vs Brewers: Monday night Nats GIFs from Milwaukee

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    You may have noticed bsheridan in the GameThreads here at FBB recently. We've begged him to come on board and add another dimension to the in-game coverage of the Washington Nationals. If you're on Twitter, you've probably seen his work already...

    [ed. note - "Before we move on to the second game of three with the Milwaukee Brewers in Miller Park, FBB's talented in-house gif producer bsheridan, aka @md_dc on Twitter, was able to capture the following images during last night's game, so we thought we'd collect them all in one place for a quick seconds at a time look back at the Washington Nationals' 3-0 win."]

    It all started with bsheridan's attempt, (which may or may not be accurate), to read lips during Matt Williams' conversation with home plate umpire Mark Wegner:

    LaRoche went yard! I hope it clears the yellow line! That's 400ft plus:

    • That's 421ft apparently:

    • No one told Brewers' shortstop Jean Segura that there wasn't much slide to the infield dirt:

    • This is a "contemplative" walk by Bernie Brewer, it's okay, the Nationals will be gone on Wednesday:

    Strong throw, but late tag:

    • ALWHMTS (Adam LaRoche Would Have Made The Stretch):

    • Ladies and Gentlemen, Despinosa:

    • "Espi catches a ball with his birthday glove" (ed. note - "I think 'birthday glove' is the funniest thing I heard last night.'):

    • We occasionally capture images on Vine too, like this one catching Carlos Gomez swinging out from under his helmet on a Clippard changeup, bsheridan is not to blame for the camera work or the nursery-rhyme reference-y thing:

    Poll
    Monday Night GIF War: Which is the best GIF of the night?

      29 votes |Results


    International Signing Period Fast Approaching

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    We're 8 days away from the start of the next international signing period and as a Brewers fan that should excite you this year.

    The international signing period begins July 2nd. On that date teams will be allowed to sign players who fit certain criteria for up to an allotted value. Players that have spent 3 or more years playing on a professional team from their country or who are 23 or older are unrestricted free agents and spending caps don't apply to them. Much like with the first year player draft, this limit is a soft cap. Teams may go over, but are penalized according to how much they go over.

    This article is a little outdated now, but it does a good job of outlining penalties:

    • 0-5% = 75% tax on overage
    • 5-10% = 75% tax on overage, limit of $500,000 per signing in next signing period
    • 10-15% = 100% tax on overage, limit of $500,000 per signing in next signing period
    • 15+% = 100% tax on overage, limit of $250,000 per signing in next TWO signing periods
    The penalty limits are hard caps and teams are not allowed to go over them. This year the Rangers and Cubs are under such restrictions. They can't sign a single player for more than $250,000. They still retain their slot values, which I'll get into shortly, and so they can still trade them.

    Teams are allotted their pool in a similarly convoluted manner to the first year player draft. Teams are giving four slot bonus values in reverse order of team record from the previous year. So the worst team ends up with the most money and the best team the least. Each team is also given a base of $700,000. So you add that to the four slot values and you have a teams total allotment.

    The reason MLB does it this way is because those slot values can be traded. The one restriction is that a team may not acquire more than 50% of it's original pool. So if a team's total allotment is $1 million dollars, they can acquire up to half a million dollars. Even is a team were to acquire $1 million additional they could only spend that half million.

    Here are the Brewers slot values:
    1. $1,026,600
    2. $417,800
    3. $282,200
    4. $185,200
    The Brewers total pool allotment is $2,611,800. They could acquire as much as $1,305,900 for a total of $3,917,700. There is reason to believe the Brewers will be looking to acquire additional money this year. They've been connected to top prospect Gilbert Lara. They're said to have an unofficial agreement with him for $3.2 million. If that's true (and it very likely is since it's been reported in multiple places by multiple people), the Brewers would either have to blow past their bonus pool by over 15% or acquire additional bonus money.

    I expect they've been looking around in an attempt to get someone's slot bonus(es). The new signing period begins next Wednesday so it's possible we could hear something about this by then. As far as I know, they don't need the additional slot values at the time they sign the player so it's also possible we don't hear about them acquiring cap space until months down the road.

    Either way, I do think we'll hear about the signing of Lara next week and quite possibly on Wednesday and that's pretty cool. This, and the international signings last year, show a marked change in philosophy from the Brewers front office. It's a much welcomed change. The international market is a great way to easily infuse talent into a farm system. Since there isn't a draft, theoretically any team can walk away with a top prospect. This year, one of those teams happens to be the Brewers (depending where you look: Lara is 4th on MLB.com's list and I thought 1st on Baseball America's list but I can't find their rankings and I don't have a sub there so I can't check, it might be here).

    Nationals 4-2 over Brewers on Ryan Zimmerman's 16th inning home run! #TKCHZ!

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    The Washington Nationals trailed 2-1 after seven in spite of a strong start by Jordan Zimmermann. Anthony Rendon's 12th HR of the year in the 8th tied things up at 2-2, however, and it went to extras before Ryan Zimmerman's 16th innings HR put the Nats ahead, 4-2.

    Pride of Auburndale Top 5:

    5. Quick Recap:Washington Nationals' leadoff man Denard Span dropped a bloop single into right-center to start the second game of three with the Milwaukee Brewers in Miller Park. Span stole his 13th base of the year with Anthony Rendon up in the next at bat, then took third on a dribbler toward third base by Rendon that somehow stayed fair. Jayson Werth followed with a groundout that brought Span in and the Nats took a 1-0 lead early in Wisconsin.

    Jordan Zimmermann pitched his way out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the fourth inning, but he couldn't get out of a second and third, one-out jam in the fifth. Ryan Braun worked the count full with two down and came through with an RBI single through short that gave the Brewers a 2-1 lead after five.

    With the score still 2-1 in the eighth, Anthony Rendon took a 92 mph 1-1 fastball from Brewers' lefty Will Smith out to right-center for game-tying solo home run. 2-2 game.

    It was still tied after 15 innings before Ryan Zimmerman hit a two-run blast out to left field off Brewers' right-hander Mike Fiers. THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! 4-2 Nationals.

    4. Home Sweet Home: Washington right-hander Jordan Zimmermann debuted in the majors on April 20, 2009, but it wasn't until three years later that the Auburndale, Wisconsin-born, University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point-educated '07 Nationals' second round pick made his first major league start in his home state.

    On July 28th that season, Zimmermann threw 93 pitches in six innings of work in front of family and friends in Miller Park over which he limited the Brewers to a run on five hits in what ended up a 4-1 Nats' win. Zimmermann was dealing with inflammation in his right shoulder at the time which made it difficult to get loose, but once he got going that night he was fine.

    "Zim was Zim," then-Nats' skipper Davey Johnson told reporters after the game, "He struggled a little bit in the fourth inning, but picked up the pace and the sixth, just overpowered them, he breezed through the sixth."

    "He certainly made pitches when he had to and beared down when he got guys on base and that's what a good ace like him does." - Davey Johnson after Zimmermann's last start in Milwaukee

    By "breezed through the sixth," Johnson meant that his then-26-year-old starter retired the side on eight pitches to end a strong outing in which he earned his eighth of twelve wins that season.

    A little over a year later, Zimmermann returned to his home state for an August 2nd outing against the Brewers in which he threw six scoreless on 100 pitches, giving up four hits and four walks but no runs in a 4-1 win in which he picked up his 13th favorable decision on the way to a career-high 19 wins.

    After the outing, Johnson said he was impressed, not with Zimmermann's stuff, which wasn't particularly sharp, but with his ability to adjust to what was working and get the job done.

    "I thought at other times I've seen him have better stuff," Johnson explained, "His command wasn't as good as I've seen it, but he certainly made pitches when he had to and beared down when he got guys on base and that's what a good ace like him does."

    In all, Zimmermann has faced the Brewers four times in his career, and entering his fifth start against his home state's team, he was (4-0) with a 2.19 ERA, seven walks (2.55 BB/9) and 23 Ks (8.39 K/9) in 24 ⅔ IP, over which he held Milwaukee's hitters to a combined .237/.297/.430 line.

    In Miller Park before tonight, the Pride of Auburndale was (2-0) with a 0.75 ERA, five walks (3.75 BB/9) and 11 Ks (8.25 K/9) in 12 IP in which Brewers' batters posted a .214/.313/.357 line.

    Zimmermann took the mound tonight in the midst of a great stretch as well.

    In four June starts before tonight's the right-hander was (2-2) with a 0.84 ERA, 2.09 FIP, three walks (0.84 BB/9) and 27 Ks (7.59 K/9) in 32 IP over which he'd held opposing hitters to a .153/.175/.207 line.

    His third career start in Miller Park began with a groundout to second...

    1st:Scooter Gennett grounded out to Danny Espinosa to start the Brewers' first. A high 95 mph 1-2 heater got Ryan Braun swinging for out no.2 and an 0-2 fastball to Jonathan Lucroy got the Brewers' catcher swinging to end a quick, 10-pitch, 2 K, 1-2-3 first.

    2nd: Carlos Gomez K'd swinging at a 94 mph 2-2 fastball. Aramis Ramirez flew out to right. Khris Davis K'd swinging through a 95 mph 2-2 heater and Jordan Zimmermann was through two on 23 pitches after a 13-pitch frame.

    3rd: Mark Reynolds was rung up by home plate ump Andy Fletcher on a knee-high 94 mph fastball inside. Jean Segura K'd swinging at a 1-2 heater and Yovani Gallardo was thrown out from deep in the hole at short by Ian Desmond. 12-pitch, 1-2-3 frame. 35 total after three. 6 Ks. 9 up and down.

    4th: Scooter Gennett made it 10 up and down when he grounded out to second on the first pitch from Zimmermann in the fourth. Ryan Braun lined to right on the the second pitch of the inning for the Brewers' first hit. Jonathan Lucroy hit a grounder behind Ian Desmond as the Nats' shortstop made his way over to second with Braun running. Braun took third on the single to put runners on the corners with one down. Carlos Gomez went to a full count, and walked to load the bases. Aramis Ramirez popped up to the mound for out no.2 and Khris David K'd swinging at an 0-2 fastball that ended a 19-pitch inning. 54 total after four.

    5th: Mark Reynolds singled to right and moved up on a bunt single by Jean Segura. Yovani Gallardo bunted both runners over/gave up an out. Scooter Gennett stepped in with two runners in scoring position, worked the count full and went down swinging at a 94 mph fastball upstairs. Ryan Braun got a two-out chance with two on, worked the count full and drove a single through short for a two-run hit. 2-1 Brewers. Jonathan Lucroy grounded into a force at short for out no.3 to end a 26-pitch inning that left Zimmermann at 80 pitches overall.

    6th: Carlos Gomez K'd swinging through a 91 mph 1-2 heater. Aramis Ramirez doubled by third with one down for the Brewers' sixth hit. Ramirez took third on a flyout to right by Khris Davis and Mark Reynolds walked with two down, but Jean Segura popped up to the infield to end a 16-pitch frame. 96 pitches total for Zimmermann after six.

    Jordan Zimmermann's Line: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 Ks, 104 P, 64 S, 5/2 GO/FO.

    3. Gallardo at home: In 49 ⅔ IP at home in Miller Park this season, 28-year-old right-hander Yovani Gallardo was (2-2) with a 3.62 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 18 walks (3.26 BB/9), 46 Ks (8.34 K/9) and a .232/.305/.401 line against before tonight's outing against the visiting Washington Nationals. After a rough outing against the Twins on June 3rd, he was on a nice run too, with a 0.86 ERA, three walks and 20 Ks in his last three starts and 21 IP, over which he'd held the opposition to a .200/.250/.240 line.

    He was, however, facing a Washington Nationals team tonight that he struggled against in nine outings, eight starts and 45 ⅓ IP in his career, posting a 6.15 ERA with 16 walks (3.18 BB/9) and 53 Ks (10.52 K/9) in those starts, in which Nats' hitters have put up a combined .294/.348/.506 line against him.

    Tonight in Milwaukee, the 16th start of his eighth major league season began with a 29-pitch first in which a Jayson Werth groundout brought Denard Span in from third after a single, stolen base and weak grounder resulted in Span standing 90 ft from home with no outs.

    Gallardo bounced back from the long first with a 12-pitch, 1-2-3 second that left him at 41 total after two.

    Denard Span walked with one down in the top of the third, but he was forced out at second on a grounder to short by Rendon and Gallardo popped Jayson Werth up for a quick 18-pitch third that pushed him up to 59 pitches.

    Ian Desmond singled with two down in the second, sending a hard-hit grounder through the right side of the infield. Desmond stole second with Danny Espinosa up, but was stranded there when Espinosa K'd looking to end an 18-pitch fourth that left Gallardo at 77 pitches.

    After a six-pitch, 1-2-3 top of the fifth by Gallardo, he was up to 83 pitches.

    Gallardo retired the first two batters in the Nationals' sixth before giving up a two-out walk to Adam LaRoche and a single to right by Ryan Zimmerman. Ian Desmond stepped in with two on and two out, but his fly to right ended a 21-pitch inning. 104 pitches total for Gallardo.

    Yovani Gallardo's Line: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 Ks, 104 P, 64 S, 7/3 GO/FO.

    2. Bullpen Dominance: Nats' bench coach Randy Knorr, who was pressed into action as the manager after the second last night when Matt Williams was ejected, talked after the 3-0 win about the team's confidence in handing leads over to their bullpen.

    "All year I think they're the best in the league and they showed it tonight again and they continued to show it." -Randy Knorr on Nats' bullpen this season

    "They've been fantastic all year," Knorr said. "There's a couple hiccups, but that's expected, all year I think they're the best in the league and they showed it tonight again and they continued to show it. And it's a good feeling when after the sixth inning and you know you can go to those guys and they're going to hold it for you."

    They've been particulary strong in recent days with a streak of 25 straight batters retired (10 via strikeout) after Aaron Barrett, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard put 1-2-3 frames on the board last night in Milwaukee.

    The Nats' relievers' 2.47 ERA before tonight was the NL's lowest, as was their 2.90 FIP and they led the NL at a combined +3.1 fWAR.

    Washington's bullpen's streak of retired batters ended when Jerry Blevins walked the first batter he faced in the home-half of the seventh.

    • Random Nats Tweet: Giolito named to All-Star Futures Game:

    1. The Wrap-Up: Brewers' right-hander Rob Wooten retired the side in order in a 15-pitch, 1-2-3 seventh after taking over on the mound for Gallardo.

    Jerry Blevins replaced Jordan Zimmermann in the bottom of the seventh and walked the first batter he faced, Rickie Weeks, but he got a 6-4-3 DP out of Scooter Gennett in the next at bat. Ryan Braun walked with two down, but he was thrown out trying to steal second for the third out of the frame.

    Brewers' lefty Will Smith (not the Fresh Prince), retired the first batter he faced in the eighth, but Anthony Rendon hit an opposite field home run to tie things up at 2-2 after seven and a half.

    Rendon erased the baserunner Nats' reliever Aaron Barrett put on with a walk, turning a 5-4-3 DP in what ended up a 13-pitch bottom of the eighth.

    Franciso "K-Rod" Rodriguez struck out two and retired the side in order in the top of the ninth.

    Craig Stammen needed 15 pitches to retire the Brewers in order in the ninth and second it to extras.

    Former Nationals' reliever Zach Duke gave up a one-out single by Rendon in the top of the tenth, but Jayson Werth's swinging K ended the frame.

    Ross Detwiler took the mound in the bottom of the tenth and retired the Brewers in order in an 11-pitch frame.

    Zach Duke made quick work of the Nats in the top of the eleventh. Detwiler came out for a second inning of work and retired the side in order with some help from Ian Desmond...

    Tom Gorzelanny threw a scoreless top of the twelfth.

    Ellian Herrera singled with one down in the Brewers' twelfth, but he was doubled up on a grounder to short that sent this one to the thirteenth.

    Mike Fiers retired the eight, ninth and tenth straight Nationals at the end of a 1-2-3 top of the thirteenth.

    Detwiler came back out for a fourth inning of relief work and gave up a leadoff single to left by Lyle Overbay. Scooter Gennett bunted the runner over/gave up an out. Ryan Braun grounded out to short for out no.2 Jonathan Lucroy stepped in with the winning run 90 feet from home, but the Nationals walked him to get to Carlos Gomez, who lined out to short to end the thirteenth.

    Ryan Zimmerman singled to center with one down in the Nats' fourteenth. Ian Desmond lined to right for the second straight hit, but Danny Espinosa popped out for the second out of the inning. Jose Lobaton stepped up with two on and two out and grounded out to second.

    Drew Storen took over on the mound in the home-half of the fourteenth and gave up a one-out, line drive single to left by Khris Davis. Elian Herrera flew out to deep center where Denard Span made a leaping catch at the wall for out no.2. Jean Segura popped to short right... where Jayson Werth made a sliding, game-saving catch.

    Mike Fiers retired the Nationals in order for his third scoreless inning of relief work in the top of the fifteenth.

    Tyler Clippard came on to pitch the bottom of the inning. Scooter Gennett singled to right with one down, but was forced out at second on a grounder to the mound by Ryan Braun. Ian Desmond threw away a double play attempt, allowing Braun to take second. The Nats walked Jonathan Lucroy again and Carlos Gomez popped out again.

    On to the 16th...

    Adam LaRoche singled to right with one down to bring Ryan Zimmerman up with a runner on and Zimmer--- THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! 2-run bomb! 4-2 Nats!!

    Pitch it, Soriano! Pitch it, Soriano! Strike'em out, Soriano! Strike'em out, Soriano! Rafael Soriano came out for the bottom of the sixteenth looking for save no18 of 2014 and retired the Brewers in order.

    Work's done! Untuck that jersey, son!!

    Nationals now 41-35

    Game 76 WPA: How about now? Nats 4, MIL 2

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    A lot happened in this game. I'm going to give all the credit to Matt Williams. He pulled a lot of levers tonight, and they pretty much all worked. Too bad there's no manager WPA.

    Chart_18__medium

    Via Fangraphs (click to embiggen)(No, I couldn't wait for FG to update and show the last out--I'M TIRED.)

    • Started too fast:Jordan Zimmermann (+1.2%) has three dominant innings and three less so, giving up 2 ER with 9 Ks and 2 walks.
    • Useless (at the plate):Jose Lobaton (-25.1%) and Danny Espinosa (-29.9%) are 0-13 with 4 Ks and 5 LOB.
    • All-star buzz:Anthony Rendon (+25.7%) is 3-7 with a game-tying, aeyth-inning solo shot that just floated over the wall in right center (+26.1%).
    • Keeping it close:Aaron Barrett (+10.4%) earns a shutdown with a scoreless aeyth, while Craig Stammen (+13.3%) gets one with a scoreless ninth.
    • Only a bit helpful:Jayson Werth (-28.2%) is 0-7 with 3 LOB and a first-inning RBI groundout (-0.9%). Okay, and a nice catch to end the 14th.
    • Rather useful: Ross Detwiler (+53.4%) gets a big shutdown, pitching four (4!) scoreless innings in extras with 2 Ks and 1 walk (intentional).
    • Still rolling:Drew Storen (+13.3%) and Tyler Clippard (+13.3%) gets their shutdowns with a scoreless 14th and 15th innings, Clipp's with a bit more drama.
    • All of a sudden:Ryan Zimmerman (+37.5%) recovers his flair for the dramatic, cranking a go-ahead, two-run dinger out to left center in the 16th (sixteenth!) inning (+42.1%) to cap his 3-7 night. He has a nice diving catch in the gap in the bottom of the 16th.
    • Last man standing:Rafael Soriano (+8.7%) gets the final shutdown of the night just as the bullpen goes empty.

    Tonight's WPA brought to you by primitive Midwestern choreography (surf's up, Larry!):


    Minor League Notes, 2014-06-25

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    Orlando Arcia is 5 by 5 with his bat, goes 5 for 5

    Nashville Sounds (AAA) 40-40
    Lost 5-1 at Salt Lake Bees (LAA) (box / pbp)

    Huntsville Stars (AA) 49-27
    Lost 5-4 (10 inn.) vs Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) (box / pbp)

    Brevard County Manatees (High A) 40-32
    Won 10-4 vs Lakeland Flying Tigers (DET) (box / pbp)

    Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 40-34
    Lost 9-3 at Kane County Cougars (CHC) (box / pbp)

    Helena Brewers (Rookie) 4-4
    Won 4-3 at Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

    Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

    BatterTeamPosABRHRBIBBSOEAVGNotes
    Caleb GindlNashvilleRF4031000.2693B
    Hunter MorrisNashvilleDH4000010.270
    Josh PrinceNashvilleLF4031000.236
    Nick RamirezHuntsvilleDH4121110.255HR
    D'Vontrey RichardsonHuntsvilleCF4111010.212
    Yadiel RiveraHuntsvilleSS4010000.250
    Jason RogersHuntsville3B5120001.2852B
    Orlando ArciaBrevard CountySS5255000.278SB, 2B (2), 3B
    Nick DelmonicoBrevard County3B5000011.256
    Mike GarzaBrevard County1B5030000.303
    Nathan OrfBrevard County2B5320120.2992B, 3B
    Victor RoacheBrevard CountyLF4210010.199
    Tyrone TaylorBrevard CountyCF4121110.263SB (2)
    Clint CoulterWisconsinC4010110.2912B
    Omar GarciaWisconsinLF5030000.262SB
    Michael RatterreeWisconsinRF4100120.247
    Luis AvilesHelenaSS4120010.367SB, 2B
    Dustin DeMuthHelena1B2021100.481
    Brandon DiazHelenaCF4131010.4142B
    Tucker NeuhausHelena3B4122010.1542B (2)
    PitcherTeamIPHRERBBSOHRERADecNotes
    Alfredo FigaroNashville2.00000105.02
    Johnnie LoweNashville0.24442016.33L, 0-3
    Jacob BarnesHuntsville5.22002105.18
    David GoforthHuntsville0.23331003.62
    Damien MagnificoBrevard County6.04322413.24W, 4-4WP (2)
    Preston GaineyWisconsin3.07663104.03L, 2-4HBP
    Jorge OrtegaHelena5.09330213.65W, 1-0

    Swinging For The Fences

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    Oswaldo Arcia's all-or-nothing approach at the plate has gotten him into a slump despite his above-average power. Who else in the major leagues is collecting extra base hits at a rate as high as Arcia?

    Oswaldo Arcia broke into the major leagues last season, both because of his merit but also because of an early paternity list trip by Wilkin Ramirez, and then later when Darin Mastroianni was placed on the 15-day disabled list with an ankle injury.

    For those that weren't familiar with Arcia, two things became apparent very quickly. He would swing hard, and he would swing often. For his career, Arcia has swung at 38.3% of pitches outside the zone, 71.1% of pitches inside the zone, and 52.3% of all pitches. The major league average for 2013 and 2014 has been around 31%, 65%, and 46%, respectively, showing that Arcia is not interested in taking a walk. His desire to swing hard can be shown not only by his career .179 ISO (isolated power, which is slugging percentage minus batting average) which easily tops the average major leaguer's ~.140 ISO, but also from the eye test. Almost every swing, Arcia wants to put the ball into orbit.

    He's spent a good chunk of this season on the disabled list, and when he returned he hit a hot streak. Starting on May 26th, his first five games back saw him hit three doubles and a pair of home runs. It sure seemed that Arcia would be looking to capitalize on his solid rookie season.

    However, he's been mired in a slump for quite a while now. He's been hitless in 8 consecutive games (29 at-bats), and has tallied only two hits since June 6th, a stretch of 13 games (43 at-bats). It appears as though opposing pitchers have figured out that Arcia wants to hit, and in turn they've been throwing him more pitches outside of the zone in the hopes that he would get himself out.

    Arcia's all-or-nothing approach also leads to another interesting byproduct; his high percentage of extra base hits relative to his total hits. For most of this season, nearly half of Arcia's hits have gone for extra bases. He currently sits at 11 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple, and 4 home runs, meaning that 48% of his hits have yielded multiple bases. I felt that this was an extraordinarily high number, so I decided to see if any other players in the major leagues could match or even top Arcia.

    When I first started with the Twins, I was imagining that we'd see someone else with a bunch of power atop the list, such as Brian Dozier or Josh Willingham. However, both guys are lacking in doubles, as you'll see below, and that has hurt their extra base hit percentage. This table includes all position players with at least 40 at-bats this season prior to Tuesday's game, simply to avoid including the Jason Bartletts and Darin Mastroiannis from this season.

    PlayerABH1B2B3BHRXBH%
    Sam Fuld7617890053%
    Oswaldo Arcia106211151448%
    Trevor Plouffe2455931221548%
    Eduardo Escobar1925733220242%
    Chris Colabello1513521100440%
    Brian Dozier27868411201540%
    Josh Willingham103261631638%
    Josmil Pinto135301940737%
    Chris Parmelee80181220433%
    Pedro Florimon677511029%
    Kendrys Morales5111830027%
    Kurt Suzuki2126851150225%
    Eduardo Nunez69201521225%
    Aaron Hicks126251950124%
    Jason Kubel156352761123%
    Joe Mauer2727155131223%
    Danny Santana127413270222%
    Chris Herrmann41550000%

    I don't think you really needed more reinforcement that Jason Kubel was cooked as a hitter or that Joe Mauer has been struggling this season, but there you go.

    I must say that it was an absolute surprise to see Sam Fuld atop this list. He's no one's idea of a slugger, nor does he have the profile of a guy that swings for the fences, so I imagine that his stay up here would simply be a temporary one, and Arcia would retain his crown sometime later in the season. I was a little surprised to see Trevor Plouffe so high, but remember that he's hit a ton of doubles this year. Plouffe was maybe more of a free swinger in the past, but this year he's focused more on hitting the ball to the opposite field and that's why he has so many doubles with so few home runs.

    Now that we took a look at the Twins roster, I decided to do two more studies. First, the qualified hitters of MLB that were at Arcia's extra base hit percentage or higher. All data from before Tuesday's games.

    PlayerABH1B2B3BHRXBH%
    Chris Carter22041161111361%
    Jose Abreu24868291612257%
    Edwin Encarnacion29380351922456%
    Mike Trout26882421951649%
    Khris Davis26668351821349%
    Yoenis Cespedes28275391931448%
    Seth Smith2106132174848%

    Chris Carter, the second coming of Adam Dunn, apparently. All of these players listed are above-average hitters, with the exception of Carter. He strikes out far too much and won't ever hit for a decent average, so he's probably the floor of what Oswaldo Arcia could become. Also, don't forget that this list contains Khris Davis of the Brewers, not Chris Davis of the Orioles.

    My last table I'm going to display includes the hitters that have had at least 100 plate appearances* this year. Since Arcia has not played enough to qualify for the leaderboards, I figured it would be fair to pit him against the other hitters that have played roughly the same amount as him. Once again, all hitters with an extra base hit percentage equal to or better than Arcia have been listed.

    * This is how FanGraphs sorts their leaderboards, so this is why I made the cutoff at 100 PA but the table lists AB.

    Some interesting things to note below. Sean Rodriguez is the leader, but he's putting up a Chris Carter-type season with a terrible batting average but tons of power, even more than he's shown in his career. The same goes for Rene Rivera, and Mike Moustakas.

    However, it's not all low average, high power players on this list. We already pointed out Mike Trout. Jose Abreu has done a great job taking over first base from Paul Konerko for the White Sox. Edwin Encarnacion is an excellent hitter. Seth Smith is putting up a career year in San Diego, and he used to hit in a hitter's paradise in Colorado. While Oswaldo Arcia is having an unusual year in terms of his results of his hits, it's not all that rare. Now we just hope that he ends up being closer to a Mike Trout than a Mike Olt.

    PlayerABH1B2B3BHRXBH%
    Sean Rodriguez10622861764%
    Chris Carter22041161111361%
    Juan Francisco16239161011259%
    Rene Rivera113241090558%
    Jose Abreu24868291612257%
    Mike Olt1542310301057%
    Edwin Encarnacion29380351922456%
    Mike Moustakas1953415101856%
    Colby Rasmus15938171101055%
    John Mayberry, Jr.93221070555%
    Sam Fuld106231192152%
    Scott Van Slyke90251261652%
    Gaby Sanchez1243115101552%
    J.D. Martinez1133517110751%
    Carlos Beltran1864120140751%
    Devin Mesoraco14646231001350%
    Mike Trout26882421951649%
    Khris Davis26668351821349%
    Yoenis Cespedes28275391931448%
    Mike Zunino2134825131948%
    Oswaldo Arcia106211151448%
    Seth Smith2106132174848%
    Trevor Plouffe2455931221548%
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