Friday's Brewers minor league action

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 38-31
Lost 8-1 vs Tacoma Rainiers (SEA) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 45-24
Won 8-7 vs Chattanooga Lookouts (LAD) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 35-32
Won 7-0 at Quad Cities River Bandits (HOU) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Brad Mills's last start before his opt-out date and more Brewers minor league action

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 38-32
Lost 2-1 vs Tacoma Rainiers (SEA) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 46-24
Won 7-5 vs Chattanooga Lookouts (LAD) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 36-32
Won 6-3 at Quad Cities River Bandits (HOU) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Sunday's Brewers minor league action

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 38-33
Lost 4-3 vs Tacoma Rainiers (SEA) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 36-33
Lost 13-2 at Quad Cities River Bandits (HOU) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Today's lessons include roster moves, extending Jonathan Lucroy, and the Brewers Wall of Honor.

This Weekend's Results

Reds 6, Brewers 5

Bad defense was the story of the game. Matt Garza pitched seven innings, allowed five runs, but only one of them was earned. The Brewers put together a rally in the seventh inning to tie the game at five, but Francisco Rodriguez allowed the winning run in the ninth inning.

Brewers 4, Reds 2

Yovani Gallardo allowed a first inning run but settled down after that to pitch seven strong innings. Meanwhile, the offense once again rallied in the seventh inning to take a 2-1 lead. Will Smith allowed a home run in the eighth to tie the game in the eighth, but Ryan Braun hit a two-run home run in the eighth and Francisco Rodriguez closed it out for the win.

Reds 13, Brewers 4

Marco Estrada struggled with the home run ball again, allowing five runs on three home runs. The Brewers kept it close until the eighth inning, where Rob Wooten & Mike Fiers combined to allow five runs (all charged to Wooten), and Wei-Chung Wang allowed three more runs (only one earned).

Tom Gorzelanny returned to the roster, but in a way no one expected.

After finishing his minor league rehab, Tom Gorzelanny was activated from the disabled list following Friday's game. However, it came in a way no was was expecting. While we thought a reliever (Mike FIers or Rob Wooten most likely) would go down to Nashville to clear the space, the Brewers went a different route. They instead demoted both Logan Schafer and Irving Falu to Nashville, and also called up Elian Herrera. The moves give the Brewers eight relievers with a short four-man bench. Schafer and Falu hadn't done much offensively, but Schafer had at least provided some decent defense. While Herrera does provide coverage in the infield and outfield, his defense has been questionable. With the Brewers in a stretch of 20 straight games, the bullpen help was needed. However, it also weakened and already weak Brewers bench for now.

The Brewers need to consider an extension for Jonathan Lucroy.

Jonathan Lucroy has developed well over the last several years, becoming one of the Brewers most valuable players. While the Brewers still have him under contract through 2016 (with an option for 2017), his development means that the Brewers should consider locking him up while they can get him at a more affordable rate. On Friday, Noah looked at what it would take to extend Lucroy and if the Brewers should do it. Having a franchise catcher is important, and the Brewers have committed to the players they have developed in the past. The only question now is what Lucroy wants if he decided to sign an extension.

Cram Session

Wall of Honor

• Enrique Bakemeyer of The Brewers Bar calls the Wall of Honor "just spiffy", and looks at some of the plaques that interested him.
• The John & Cait blog has a collection of pictures, videos, and quotes from the ceremonies on Friday.
• AK of Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball put together a list of power rankings for the Wall of Honor.
• If you looked at the above links, you might have spoiled this one. On Friday, we brought back an old quiz on BCB, asking you to name the 58 former Brewers on the Wall of Honor.

Other Notes

• The BCB NL All-Star Roster series continued on Friday, looking at third base.
• The newest All-Star game voting update came out yesterday, and Carlos Gomez had slipped to fourth in the outfield vote. Other Brewers among the leaders included Jonathan Lucroy at third for catcher, Aramis Ramirez fourth at third base, Jean Segura third at shortstop, Ryan Braun fifth in the outfield, and Khris Davis twelfth in the outfield.
• On Saturday, the Brewers officially announced that their first three picks from the MLB draft had all signed. Adam Berry of Brewers.com has the details on the signings and from their press conference.
• Tyler Thornburg and Jim Henderson have started throwing as part of their rehab. Caitlin Swieca of Brewers.com has details on their recovery.
• Another call for Jimmy Nelson to the rotation came after Sunday's loss. Mike Bauman of MLB.com says it is time for a change after Marco Estrada allowed three home runs on Sunday.
• After Sunday's loss, Ron Roenicke expressed his support for Marco Estrada. Adam McCalvy has some quotes from Roenicke's postgame conference.
• Before Jonathan Lucroy arrived in Milwaukee, the Brewers had seen a lot of turnover at the catcher position in the last 10+ years. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel looks at the string of catchers and circumstances that led to Lucroy's arrival in Milwaukee.
• Scooter Gennett has improved his plate approach recently, leading to success in the leadoff spot. Caitlin Swieca looks at how Gennett has thrived as the leadoff hitter.
• Carlos Gomez attributes learning to play the game the right way from his father. Adam McCalvy looks at the relationship between Gomez and his father.
• When Ryan Braun was hit by a pitch on Friday, he recorded his 50th career HBP. Plunk Everyone has a few notes on the occasion.
• Rubie Q of Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball covers the details of a defamation case against Ryan Braun that was recently dismissed in court.

Minor League Update

News & Notes

• Michael Trzinski of Reviewing the Brew started a countdown of the top 20 farm teams in Brewers history with the 1980 Holyoke Millers.

Check out morineko's daily minor league update for a more in-depth look at yesterday's minor league results.

Division Update

• Cubs @ Phillies
  Friday:Cubs 2, Phillies 1
  Saturday:Phillies 7, Cubs 4
  Sunday:Cubs 3, Phillies 0
• Pirates @ Marlins
  Friday:Pirates 8, Marlins 6 (13 Innings)
  Saturday: Pirates 8, Marlins 6
  Sunday:Marlins 3, Pirates 2 (10 Innings)
• Nationals @ Cardinals
  Friday:Cardinals 1, Nationals 0
  Saturday:Cardinals 4, Nationals 1
  Sunday:Caridnals 5, Nationals 2

Today's Division Games

• Cubs (Jason Hammel) @ Marlins (Tom Koehler) - 6:10 pm
• Mets (Jacob deGrom) @ Cardinals (Carlos Martinez) - 7:10 pm
• Reds and Pirates have the day off.

Today's Action

The Brewers travel to Arizona to begin a four-game series against the Diamondbacks. Game one features Wily Peralta against Brandon McCarthy. First pitch is at 8:40 pm, and MLB.com has the preview.

Identifying risers and fallers in head-to-head points' leagues for Week 12, including Scooter Gennett and Tanner Roark.

Risers

Scooter Gennett, Brewers

Gennett has supplanted the struggling Jean Segura at the top of the order in Milwaukee, giving the 24-year-old keystone extra fantasy value in a potent Brewers' lineup. Gennett has multi-hit games in four out of his last five contests, with a .325/.356/.500 slash and 11 runs scored over the last 30 days. The second baseman makes a lot of contact, and he's struck out in just 16.3 percent of his plate appearances this season. Gennett doesn't do one thing extraordinarily well, but he's someone you can comfortably insert into your middle infield without hurting your batting average. He should maintain a .280 BA with an outside chance of double-digit home runs and steals. Right now, he's on pace for seven home runs, 53 runs, 42 RBI and nine steals; I'm much more confident in Gennett reaching double-digit steals, but if he continues to hit, he should easily exceed 53 runs scored with Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez batting second, third and fourth. I'll give Gennett a .285/.325/.425 slash the rest of the way, with a season-ending total of nine home runs, 65 runs, 45 RBI and 12 steals.

Tanner Roark, Nationals

In a starting rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez a Doug Fister, Roark has quietly emerged as a very strong back-end starter in D.C. Many pundits favored Taylor Jordan over Roark in the preseason, but Roark hasn't conceded his rotation spot, going 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 71:15 K:BB ratio in 84 2/3 innings.  Roark is league average in strikeouts, but his overall game -- which has him inside the top-30 starting pitchers, according to the ESPN Player Rater -- should be getting more attention in fantasy leagues. Roark is still available in almost 50 percent of ESPN leagues, and he gets two favorable starts in Week 12, starting with the Astros on Tuesday and ending with the Braves on Sunday. Both games are at home, where Roark owns a 1.50 ERA (compared to 4.22 on the road). I expect Roark to remain in Washington's rotation for the long haul.

Fallers

Rajai Davis, Tigers

I'm not a big fan of speed-dependent players. I own zero shares of Billy Hamilton, which I now regret, but Davis is someone I've owned and dropped before numerous times, including this season. I also traded the Detroit center fielder -- along with Jenrry Mejia -- for Angel Pagan, an everyday player (who is now hurt). Don't get me wrong; Davis is still very dependable in five-outfield leagues, but a head-to-head format is a different story. Davis isn't a full-time player in Brad Ausmus' offense, giving way to J.D. Martinez, who is currently riding a five-game hitting streak. After hitting .333 in April and .263 in May with 16 combined steals, Davis finds himself in a 5-for-29 (.172 BA) funk with two steals in seven games. I think his May performance is most indicative of his true talent. He's also not going to give you 10 home runs, which he was on pace to do with four long balls in the first two months. Forty steals is still in the conversation, but it will likely come with a .265 BA and a low on-base percentage (career .317 OBP).

Marco Estrada, Brewers

Estrada was lit up once again Sunday, allowing three long balls to Billy Hamilton, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier. That makes 23 home runs allowed in 13 starts, which puts the 30-year-old on pace to break the all-time record held by Bert Blyleven (50 home runs in 1986). That's not going to happen, if only because Estrada cannot be long for the Milwaukee rotation. Ron Roenicke backed his starter entering Sunday, but I expect a quick role reversal. Estrada's HR/FB rate of 18.2 percent is an extreme outlier, but it's not just the home runs that are a concern. His walk rate has also increased from 5.7 percent to 8.3 percent, and his swinging strike rate is below 10 percent for the first time since 2009. I'll be very surprised if Estrada gets another start, with prospect Jimmy Nelson currently carving up Triple-A (7-1, 1.51 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 86 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings) -- and Mike Fiers being another quality option. Wily Peralta should be owned in more leagues than Estrada (although he has two difficult matchups in Week 12; at Arizona, at Colorado). If you're in a 12-team league, I have no problem dropping Estrada if there is a better option available.

Getting this up really early, in case anyone wants to talk World Cup soccer football, with Team USA playing their first game this afternoon against Ghana. We'll be downtown in the Film Bar, so feel free to use this as a game thread for that.

Wily Peralta RHP, 6-5, 2.90

Brandon McCarthy RHP, 1-9, 5.29

Diamondbacks Lineup

...is not available at the time of writing. It'll probably show up in the Gameday Thread. If I'm around to post that, rather than behaving like a typical British football fan, and lying passed out in a ditch somewhere, with my national flag painted on my face. Hey, it's okay: I'm Scottish. We're happy drunks. So I'll probably be roaming the streets of Phoenix, looking for Ghanaians to hug. I may be some time. Is that how "Ghanaians" spelled? My spell-checker seems to disagree, but it disagrees, regardless of how I arrange the letters, and whether I add or subtract them. Apologies to any... people from Ghana who may be reading this, just in case.

I'll cheer for Team USA today, which I must confess is an improvement over four years ago, where I was quietly hoping Slovenia would pull off the upset, because they were in the same group as England. As a Scot, when it comes to the World Cup Finals [where our last game was a 3-0 defeat to Morocco, 16 years ago], our recent rooting interests are firmly defined as "Whatever is going to do most damage to the bastard English." I think it's in my DNA. Normally, I couldn't give a damn, but every four years, I am filled with the spirit of Bannockburn, Sean Connery, and the 40% proof kind. Since USA and England are in different pools, no such worries this time. [But, go Costa Rica!]

Meanwhile, yes: there is baseball here today, with the Brewers arriving, but Fabian has already covered the bases there.  It could be hell week for the Diamondbacks, as they face the two sides with the best records in the National League, for back-to-back series. Back at the start of May, I highlighted the off-day next Monday as a possible one where we could see changes being made. The team has played better since then - almost exactly at .500, at 21-20 - but a rough couple of series here and Ken Kendrick might decide the time has come to pull the plug on some current incumbents.

The start of the Pioneer League season and more from the Brewers minors

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 38-34
Lost 9-0 vs Tacoma Rainiers (SEA) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 34-30
Won 1-0 vs Dunedin Blue Jays (TOR) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) 0-1
Lost 8-5 vs Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Bronson Arroyo finally admitted what we could all tell from his last couple of starts, and has hit the disabled list for the first time. Kirk Gibson got ejected last night, and Pete Rose still wants back into baseball.

Recaps

[AZCentral] Diamondbacks falter late in loss to Brewers - It looked like it would be a short night for McCarthy. After cruising through the first inning he gave up two runs in the second inning, one in the third and the damage would have been much worse if not for the Diamondbacks turning two double plays, one started by 1B Paul Goldschmidt and the second on a diving catch by RF Gerardo Parra. Ramirez then scorched a line drive to right center, but Parra, venturing to his right, made a diving catch and then doubled Braun off second base. If the ball drops, the Brewers have a 5-3 lead and McCarthy might have been on the ropes.

[dbacks.com] Bullpen provides no relief for D-backs vs. Brewers - McCarthy has often set down the opposing team's offense in short order his first time through the lineup before struggling in the middle innings. On Monday the opposite was true. "You'd like to take over a game right from the beginning, whether it's get a couple of runs or just shut it down all the way through," McCarthy said. "Whatever it is, you just want to be part of the team winning, and that's the most difficult thing about this."

[ArizonaSports] Brewers go wild on Diamondbacks' Harris, Putz "The intention of the replay rule is outstanding and it's been great," said Gibson, before commenting on the non-overturned call in the ninth inning that led to his eighth career ejection after arguing with crew chief Ted Barrett. "I don't know who was there in New York looking at it. It was clear and convincing on our scoreboard that (Elian Herrera's) foot came off (the third base bag) and his back foot was not on there, and (Prado) had the tag on his helmet. It's something that I think needs to be talked about because that should not be missed, in my opinion."

[FOX Sports] Brewers pound D-backs bullpen - McCarthy gave the Diamondbacks a chance, shaking off his own early troubles to go seven innings. He helped himself out, too, slashing a two-run single in the second inning. Arizona's bullpen, which has been solid recently, couldn't hold it. Harris gave up the three runs with two outs in the ninth and the Brewers added three more runs after the replay, sending Arizona to its fifth loss in six games. "We had it set up pretty good right there, but it didn't work out," Gibson said. "Two outs and to score all those runs, it didn't work out the way it wanted to."

Team news (Arroyo section)

[FOX Sports] Elbow pain sends Arroyo to DL for first time in career - He was unable to do his side work before his last two starts, and he told pitching coach Mike Harkey while warming up Sunday that he knew it would be his last start for awhile. The MRI showed "a lot of stuff in there from pitching a lot of years," Arroyo said. "There is a ton of swelling. It looks like a little bit of arthritis and several things... It's getting to where you are closing down the movement to the degree where every time I throw my arm doesn't want to straighten out. Just the straightening out is constantly irritating it. I've pitched like that for awhile."

[dbacks.com] Elbow strain sends Arroyo to DL for first time - "I've been beat up for a while," Arroyo said. "I've pitched the last six times pretty miserable out there, just trying to make it happen with a bit of guts and some mental ability. It's the first time I'm going to be shut down. We're going to take 10 days, not touch a ball, see how the arm reacts. We're going to try to get all the swelling out, let it calm down completely and not irritate it for 10 days. Then probably give it another 10 to 15 to 20 days to try to fire it back up and see if it acts differently. And if it acts the same, then we're going to have to try something different."

[AZCentral] Arroyo goes on DL as Diamondbacks lose another arm - "I can't keep going out there and putting different inflammatory (medicines) in my body and beating myself down because I can just see the arm is going south," he said. "If it would have stayed the same as it was five to six starts ago I could deal with the pain, but it continues to get more swollen. I'm waking up every day not being able to touch a ball for two to three days."

Team news (everything else section)

[AZ Central] Bradley notches 3 strikeouts in rehab start - "I felt good," he said. "The biggest thing is my health and how I felt mechanically. Those two things came out well. As I got past that first inning, and in the second and third, I felt like I started to come into where I normally am. As much as I hate being on the DL, I'm going to use it to my advantage the best I can. I'm leaving here with a much-improved change-up and a two-seam. Those are two things I didn't have before."

[ArizonaSports] Luis Gonzalez: Diamondbacks need Mark Trumbo back 'desperately' - "He was brought in here to protect Goldschmidt and to be the stabilization behind him and to provide that security for him," Gonzalez told Bickley and Marotta. Before he went down with a broken foot on Apr. 21, Trumbo was hitting .210 with seven home runs and 19 RBI. Without his bat in the lineup, Gonzalez said it has become more difficult for Goldschmidt to find success. Er, except that, on Apr. 21, Goldie had a .914 OPS. Since then, without Trumbo's "protection", Goldschmidt has a .956 OPS.

[ravallirepublic.com] Osprey roster tweaked ahead of season opener - The D-Backs announced Monday that catcher B.J. Lopez was assigned to the Osprey ahead of the O's season opener in Helena. Lopez joins the Osprey from Class A South Bend out of the Midwest League. In an unrelated move, right-handed pitcher Eric Brooks was transferred to Class AAA Reno, where me makes his first career Pacific Coast League roster. One presumes this is in preparation for calling up an Aces starter to replace Arroyo.

And, elsewhere...

[SI.com] Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn, an anachronism who was ahead of his time, passes away at 54 - There are a million tributes to Gwynn, for understandable reasons. But I particularly liked this one, which gives you an idea of how he revolutionized the game in many ways.

[ESPN] Pete Rose hasn't given up on seeing his lifetime ban lifted - On the day that Pete Rose made his return to managing in a one-day stint with the independent Bridgeport Bluefish, 25 years after he last managed the Cincinnati Reds, MLB's career hits leader said he remains optimistic that his lifetime ban for betting on baseball will one day be lifted. "I've waited 25 years, but I've done so because I was the one who screwed up," Rose told ESPN.com. "And if I were given a second chance, I would be the happiest guy in the world."

Finally, this sounds like a set-up for a Cubs joke, but it isn't. We've seen games stopped by bees in Arizona multiple times, but let's just be lucky we don't play in Alaska... Colorado Rockies fans should look away now.

The surprising first place Brewers are poised for a playoff run in 2014.

The surprising Milwaukee Brewers enter their Tuesday game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a .592 winning percentage - good for second best in the National League - and a 3.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals for 1st place in the NL Central.  They've been fortunate enough to feature an offense that ranks 4th in OPS in the NL, a starting rotation with a league-leading number of innings pitched (444.1), and a bullpen with the 3rd most saves in the NL.

They are a balanced, veteran squad that has thus far remained suspension-free and mostly healthy, and despite being overlooked in the preseason NL Central projections, they've taken the division by storm and led throughout the early season.  They're the rare team that has young, star-caliber players under years of team control at SS, C, and CF, and they can throw a steady diet of number 2 caliber starting pitchers at teams day in and day out.   They will undoubtedly be buyers at the trade deadline, but as is the case with most teams that can claim 42-29 records, there aren't many glaring holes that need to be filled for them to be considered World Series contenders.

That's a good thing for Milwaukee, since their minor league system was ranked at or near the very bottom in every organizational rankings prior to the 2014 season.  That shouldn't be a defining factor of their trade deadline negotiations, however, as they won't have many big moves to make, and even if they do, both owner Mark Attanasio and GM Doug Melvin have shown a willingness to add talent and payroll when their team has a shot at a legitimate playoff run.

Needs

First Base

The Brewers have been attempting to fill the void vacated by Prince Fielder for several years now, and despite rumors connecting them with everyone from Logan Morrison and Kendrys Morales to former OF/1B Corey Hart, they elected to address the void with a pair of minor moves in the offseason.  Former Brewer Lyle Overbay was brought in as the lefty portion of a 1B rotation to pair with veteran power hitter and strikeout maestro Mark Reynolds.  So far, the power has been provided by Reynolds (13 HR 222 PA), but neither has shown much propensity to get on base, and as a result, the collective production from Milwaukee 1Bs ranks second to last in the NL in both OBP (.299) and OPS (.685).

For many of the same reasons the Brewers had issues finding a legitimate fit in the offseason, there don't appear to be many LH hitting 1B available currently, either.  While Morales, a switch hitter who historically has hit RHP much better than LHP, would have been a solid fit, his signing with the Minnesota Twins presumably leaves the Brewers down one potential upgrade option.  Lucas Duda and his .809 OPS against RHP could be available from the New York Mets, but since the Mets already traded the similar Ike Davis to the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, Duda's availability may come at an inflated price.  The Mets have also recently indicated that they, too, may be buyers at this year's deadline, further decreasing the chance Duda gets traded.

The Brewers will undoubtedly shop for an upgrade at 1B, but they also seem realistic in their pursuits, and have recently indicated that they're still comfortable with a Reynolds/Overbay combination at the hot corner.

Trade Likelihood:  Low

Starting Rotation

Even teams who have rotations that have performed well in 2014 will be on the lookout for additional arms, and Milwaukee is no different.  Their investment in free agent starter Kyle Lohse has paid off quite well, and he's been backed in a solid rotation by both Yovani Gallardo and Wily Peralta to form a solid core.

Matt Garza has struggled through his first two and half months in Milwaukee, however, with his worst ERA+ (91) since his 2006 rookie season, but considering the 4 year, $50 million invested in him in free agency this offseason, it seems likely that the Brewers will keep him in the rotation in hopes he can work through his issues.

Marco Estrada, on the other hand, has been the decided weak link in the rotation, as the 30 year old's 5.92 FIP and majors-leading 23 HR allowed have inflated his ERA all the way up to 4.82, good for 86th among the 96 qualified starters in both leagues.  If the Brewers do opt to look for an upgrade over Estrada in the rotation, however, they'll likely look to their own minor league ranks to do so rather than swap prospects in the trade market, likely turning to top prospect Jimmy Nelson.  Nelson, who pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in a spot-start in late May this season, was ranked among the Top 100 prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com prior to the 2014 season, and has blown away Triple-A hitters for the bulk of this year.

Trade Likelihood:  Low

Bullpen

The one spot where the Brewers will absolutely look to improve is in their bullpen, where they've managed to achieve solid yet unspectacular production despite a dearth of hard-throwers.  Due largely to the absence of Jim Henderson and the void left by John Axford, the 91.6 average fastball velocity from the collective Brewers' bullpen ranks just 25th in the majors, and is a large reason why they rely on it so seldom (their 57.2% fastball usage ranks 24th in baseball).Their bullpen still sports a respectable 3.50 ERA (7th in the NL), but only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins have a worse batting average allowed than the Brewers currently sport at .251.

Finding a hard throwing, lock-down reliever for late inning scenarios to support what Francisco Rodriguez has done in the closer's spot will likely be a priority, and they'll likely target a RHP considering the successes LHP's Zach Duke and Will Smith have had against LH hitters.

Hector Rondon of the Chicago Cubs fits the bill, though there may be a reluctance to trade him within the division.  If Attanasio is truly willing to open up the payroll, Joaquin Benoit would be a perfect fit, with the 2 year, $15.5 million contract he signed prior to the start of 2014 the only potential stumbling block.

Trade Likelihood:  High

How many outfielders can the Brewers get into the All-Star game?

This is part six of a nine-part series where we look at each position in the National League for the All-Star roster. We will see how different contributors constructed their All-Star rosters, as well as which players deserve to make the team. Check the storystream in the right bar for previous entries in the series.

The past parts of the series have been more focused, but now we move to a broader portion of the series. The outfield is a broad category with several positions to fill. With so many positions to fill, what is the best approach to picking players? A few of those spots will be easy to fill, but the rest will have plenty of possibilities, and a deeper year in the outfield could make this a tough decision.

The Candidates

Here are the top 20 candidates by fWAR:

Current All-Star Voting Results

Results as of Sunday evening, from MLB.com:

The Contributors Vote

Before I start the analysis, I think it's important to point out that these ballots were submitted around two weeks ago at this point, so some of these voters may change their picks if they re-voted today.

Even though the order differed, all eight voters put the same three players as their starters: Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, and Carlos Gomez. They are three of the four best outfielders in the National League right now, so the choice is definitely justified. After that, opinions started to differ more. Andrew McCutchen was the only other outfielder on all eight ballots, and as a top four outfielder that also makes sense. Seth Smith and Justin Upton made seven of the eight ballots. It got more uncertain after that, as the remaining votes were divided between Jason Heyward, Charlie Blackmon, Hunter Pence, Michael Morse, A.J. Pollock, and Ryan Braun.

There was plenty to say on the outfield. Here is what the voters thought:

Cheeseandcorn: "I really wanted to find space for Braun, but couldn't justify it at this point - he's just missed too much time. Pollock has missed just a bit less and has been just a bit better, so I gave him the nod, even though he's currently injured."

Derek Harvey: "I feel like Ryan Braun is kind of a homer pick even for reserve players. His wRC+ puts him right in the mix though and if it weren't for the DL stint I think he'd rank just outside the top 5 in NL fWAR so maybe it's not.  I have Seth Smith because he's really just killing it this year. Charlie Blackmon because he was just ridiculous that first month. He's sucking now, but whatever. Let Rockies fans have their guy."

Fred Hofstetter: "Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan are virtually interchangeable, but I went with Pence because of how uncomfortable it is to watch him do things."

Hangwithem Rach: "I can't help it. I just really want Braun to make the team."

Noah Jarosh: "Outfield, Gomez could get beat out but the other two clearly belong. Of players I left off, Hunter Pence may be the most likely to make the team due to his status on the team with the current best record in the league." (Jason Heyward and Angel Pagan were also players worth mentions but didn't make his team.)

NPetrashek: "I think those are the three guys at OF and I don't think its particularly close.  Would have loved to put Charlie Blackmon on the [starting] ballot but oh well."

Analysis

Looking at that top 20, there is a natural divide between the top players  The top tier is the top four players, theoutfielders that are clearly above everyone else. These four outfielders (Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, Yasiel Puig) are considered to be the best four outfielders in the National League, and that is reflected in the fan vote so far. There's not much debate about whether these outfielders should be in the game. The only question is which ones will make it through the fan vote and which will be added through the players/coaches vote.

After that, the choice gets a bit more cloudy. No candidates really stand out above the others. Justin Upton has received attention with his power, and Charlie Blackmon's hot start also caught a lot of people's attention. A.J. Pollock was looking like a near lock to make the team until he broke his hand, and that is expected to keep him out until around August. Billy Hamilton isn't doing much on the offensive side, but his speed might be enough to get him some consideration. Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan are playing well, and playing on the NL team with the best record is always a boost. Seth Smith had a hot May that got him into the conversation, and despite a cold June, the "minimum one player per team" rule could get him a spot on the roster (someone from the Padres has to be on the team). Then there's Ryan Braun. He may not have had the same stats he has had in the past, but he still has the star power to make the team. As much as he has been booed in opposing stadiums, he's still getting votes from fans. At least some people want to see him in the game.

Out of all of these choices, who makes the team? I'd say three to four of those candidates should join the top four on the roster. It may end up coming down to the manager's preference here. I think any combination of players from the outfield could be chosen and I wouldn't be surprised. There are enough choices here that anyone left out wouldn't really be "snubbed", just didn't get someone's preference. The only snubs would be if any of the top four are left out of the game.

Unfortunately, this means that Khris Davis' chances of making the game aren't looking good. While he has improved in May & June, that cold April will probably keep him off the All-Star roster. This leaves the Brewers outfielders chances as one lock, one maybe, and one miss.

If you went by the contributor vote above, the consensus would be an outfield that looks something like this:

Giancarlo Stanton
Carlos Gomez
Yasiel Puig
Andrew McCutchen
Justin Upton
Seth Smith
Ryan Braun
Charlie Blackmon

How does that lineup look for the outfield? The "snubs" in this case would be Hunter Pence and A.J. Pollock. Should either of them be in above one of the players above?

Your Vote

Now that you've seen the case for the outfield, what do you think? This is your chance to voice your opinion. Below is a Google form; fill that out to submit your vote for the position. Each pick will be assigned a point value that will be used to determine the results (pick #1 gets the most, pick #8 gets the fewest). Please vote only once. The poll will remain open until noon tomorrow.

Note: Not all eight of these picks would potentially make the team. There are three starter and three reserve guaranteed for the outfield, but the remaining two will be for possible bench spots in what bench spots are available. You do not have to fill in all eight spots, only six are required.

Update: Drew Pomeranz has suffered a fracture to his right (non-pitching) hand, and is headed to the DL. All the fun speculation below about whose spot Mills would be taking is now moot.

Update #2: One other minor note to tidy things up. As Mills was not on the 40-man roster, the A's can wait for Pom's spot in the rotation to make a 40-man move (Alcantara to the 60-day DL at some point soon seems likely). We likely won't see Mills on the team until Saturday, when his turn in the rotation will come up.

The A's have traded cash considerations (a whopping 100 cents) to the Milwaukee Brewers for Brad Mills, a left-handed starting pitcher. A 2007 fourth-round selection of the Blue Jays, Mills has no track record of success in the Major Leagues — his ERA over 76 big-league innings is an unsightly 7.76. However, he seems to be on to something with the Triple-A Nashville Sounds this year, as he sports an ERA of 1.56 in 75 innings and has averaged more than one strikeout per frame. At 29, Mills is classic A's material — a player with a high ceiling who didn't develop on schedule but, like a Josh Donaldson or Brandon Moss, still has substantial upside that the organization could look to take advantage of.

Where Mills fits into the Oakland organization remains a mystery — it's possible that Mills is seen as organizational filler, somewhat more likely that the A's intend to use him as the long man out of the bullpen (Jeff Francis simply hasn't been getting it done) or even give him a shot at some point in the rotation. Regardless, he adds a level of depth to Oakland's rotation that it previously lacked; now Mills and Dan Straily are both potential calls to make should a starter succumb to injury at some point this season.

This option doesn't sound likely, but it's being reported by one of the most prominent baseball writers out there:

#Athletics acquired Mills from #Brewers for $1. Expected to move into rotation shortly.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 17, 2014

Given the way Tommy Milone has pitched recently, Drew Pomeranz would be the pitcher demoted should Mills enter the starting five. Whether he's demoted to the bullpen or to Sacramento is another question entirely, but the A's certainly see him as a starter in the future and he was seen as a starter throughout his rise to the big leagues, despite spending the first month of 2014 pitching out of the bullpen.

The bottom line, though, is that regardless of his option situation and lack of an effective third pitch, Drew Pomeranz is pitching very well — last night's outing notwithstanding — especially for a relatively inexperienced fifth starter. His ERA is 2.91, but some peripheral stats do shed some doubt on the legitimacy of his performance. He's leaving 81.1 percent of runners on base, for instance, which is well above his career rate of 72.5 percent. His FIP is also 4.24, certainly a far cry from 2.91, and it's possible the A's front office simply wants to give him more time in AAA to grow.

Jeff Francis is likely out regardless — and if he's not out today, he'll be gone as soon as Eric O'Flaherty makes his long-awaited return from the disabled list. Francis' ERA is 7.11 following last night's game, and though a team that wins as often as the A's might not really need a long-reliever in the first place, Francis has shown that he's not the guy to fill the role, if the role even remains filled.

After Harris surrendered 3 runs on two walks and two hits in only one-third of an inning on the same day in which Bronson "Ironman" Arroyo went to the DL, the Diamondbacks optioned Will Harris back to Reno.

It certainly doesn't come as much of a surprise. After all, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has enough trouble as it is and the team is in need of another starter to replace Bronson Arroyo who went to the 15-day DL. Will Harris was sent back to Reno today, and Mike Bolsinger was called up. Bolsinger will start in tonight's game going against Kyle Lohse and the Brewers. This adjustment to the rotation pushes back Wade Miley a day. Kirk Gibson publicly announced the move on the Burns and Gambo Show.

This move makes sense as Bolsinger has already seen some work for the big club this year and experienced some moderate success. It also prevents the team from having to make any adjustments to the team's 40-man roster. Given the number of off-days between now and the All-Star Game, Bolsinger could see anywhere from 2-4 starts, depending on how the rotation shakes out. If he performs well, it's possible that Bolsinger would be kept on rotation through the off-days. If Bolsinger has some shaky outings, then he could potentially be skipped twice due to off-days.

All of this assumes that Bronson Arroyo remains on track to return once the break for the All-Star Game is concluded on July 17th, with the Diamondbacks having their first post-break game on Friday, July 18th at home versus the Cubs. As there has been no further word on the condition of Arroyo's elbow, such a return would seem to be likely at this point.

Mike Bolsinger comes back from Reno for another shot at major-league hitters. Hopefully, it'll go better than his first, where they had a batting average of .317.

Kyle Lohse RHP, 7-2, 3.00

Mike Bolsinger RHP, 1-2, 6.08

Diamondbacks Lineup

1. Didi Gregorius - 2B
2. Gerardo Parra - RF
3. Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
4. Miguel Montero - C
5. Martin Prado - 3B
6. David Peralta - CF
7. Chris Owings - SS
8. Roger Kieschnick - LF
9. Mike Bolsinger - P

Some wrinkles here. with Aaron Hill getting a day off, and Didi moving to the other side of the infield, for the start at second. Also of note, Kieschnick is apparently preferred against right-handed pitching to Cody Ross. Sure, Kieschnick is a left-handed bat, but he's also a 27-year-old with less than 100 major-league at-bats and a career OPS+ of 47. I think this is further indication that Ross's future with the Diamondbacks is likely to be limited largely to facing left-handed pitching, until he proves otherwise. On the plus side, we don't need to worry about Will Harris, ERA 8.31 this stint, stinking things up out of the bullpen.

@azc_zachb I think you may have mis-spelled "throwing strikes" there.

— AZ SnakePit (@AZSnakepit) June 17, 2014

It's an interesting move to have thrown Bolsinger in now, and shifted everyone else back a day. I guess the aim is to give the starters an extra day off, and hopefully allow them to pitch deeper into games. Last turn around the rotation, most of our starters only went five innings, leaving the bullpen to work 15 innings - and that was with the two road losses in LA requiring only eight IP from our pitchers. Overall, our bullpen hasn't been particularly over-taxed: 7th in the NL by innings pitched per game. But they have struggled in June, with a 4.89 ERA, that's ahead of only the Braves and Rockies.

Wade Mil... No, wait: our starting pitcher tonight has just ripped off his mask, and in a shocking turn of events, it'll be Mike Bolsinger taking the mound for the D-backs.

Kyle Lohse RHP, 7-2, 3.00

Mike Bolsinger RHP, 1-2, 6.08

Diamondbacks Lineup

1. Didi Gregorius - 2B
2. Gerardo Parra - RF
3. Paul Goldschmidt - 1B
4. Miguel Montero - C
5. Martin Prado - 3B
6. David Peralta - CF
7. Chris Owings - SS
8. Roger Kieschnick - LF
9. Mike Bolsinger - P

Some wrinkles here. with Aaron Hill getting a day off, and Didi moving to the other side of the infield, for the start at second. Also of note, Kieschnick is apparently preferred against right-handed pitching to Cody Ross. Sure, Kieschnick is a left-handed bat, but he's also a 27-year-old with less than 100 major-league at-bats and a career OPS+ of 47. I think this is further indication that Ross's future with the Diamondbacks is likely to be limited largely to facing left-handed pitching, until he proves otherwise. On the plus side, we don't need to worry about Will Harris, ERA 8.31 this stint, stinking things up out of the bullpen.

@azc_zachb I think you may have mis-spelled "throwing strikes" there.

— AZ SnakePit (@AZSnakepit) June 17, 2014

It's an interesting move to have thrown Bolsinger in now, and shifted everyone else back a day. I guess the aim is to give the starters an extra day off, and hopefully allow them to pitch deeper into games. Last turn around the rotation, most of our starters only went five innings, leaving the bullpen to work 15 innings - and that was with the two road losses in LA requiring only eight IP from our pitchers. Overall, our bullpen hasn't been particularly over-taxed: 7th in the NL by innings pitched per game. But they have struggled in June, with a 4.89 ERA, that's ahead of only the Braves and Rockies.

Because, really, who likes Yadier Molina?

The Brewers are tired of Cardinals players starting in the All-Star Game, so they've decided to unveil attack-style ads usually reserved for political campaigns in order to convince fans to vote for catcher Jonathan Lucroy and outfielder Carlos Gomez.

We are the Brewers. All of us (except for Cardinals fans, of course).

Let's look at the positives first. Mike Bolsinger pitched more than well enough to win. Three runs in six and a third innings, and scattered seven hits. A really good night from him. Our offense was pretty good too. They took advantage of Brewer defensive miscues and ended up scoring four runs. Again, a good night for Bolsinger and the offense.

It all went to hell in the seventh inning, but first, a bit of backstory. Yesterday, Parra got hit by a pitch. Didi supposedly got hit by a pitch to start the game, though it was as phantom a HBP as you'll ever see, and then in the bottom of the sixth, Owings was hit in the back by a pitch that richochet up and knocked off his helmet. Mike Bolsinger got pulled after getting one out in the seventh for Evan Marshall. Marshall gave up a single and a double, and then was facing Ryan Braun. He threw at him once, and missed. He tried again. And hit him to load the bases with one out. And then gave up a Grand Slam to Lucroy, giving the Brewers a late, three-run lead. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Final score 7-5, Brewers. Full recap to follow.

Tonya the Tabir thinks the Diamondbacks are "G-r-r-r-r-r-r-itty!"

Winning ball thrower: Kyle Lohse

Losing ball thrower: Brad Ziegler

Closers aren't things guy: Francisco Rodriguez

HR: Aramis Ramirez (8), Jonathan Lucroy x 2 (8)

Boxscore

Win expectancy chart

NSFW GIF of my reaction to Kirk Gibson and the rest of the D-Backs after hitting Braun

The Diamondbacks put forth a great effort to ruin my evening. In the first inning, after a HBP, single, and a walk the bases were loaded with no outs for Miguel Montero who blooped in a run with a pop-up that dropped in left field. Another run scored on a fielder's choice. Yet another run would score on another fielder's choice. Mark Reynolds made a poor throw other wise the inning may have ended there without the run scoring. Jean Segura was on the receiving end of the throw and had to stretch to catch the ball and stay on the base. It look as though he might have hurt himself in the process, but stayed in the game. No more runs would be plated that inning, but the Brewers were down by 3 runs early.

In the very next inning, as Aramis Ramirez approached the plate he look at the camera, winked, and said, "buck up kiddo". Then he launched a home run to left field. Message received big guy. Then Khris Davis approached the plate, looked at the camera, and said "If you liked that, you'll love this." Then he quickly grounded out. I mean, hey, the kid tried. A man of few words, Jean Segura walked to the plate, tapped his chest with his fist as if to say, "I got you, bro" and shot a ball to right center for a triple. Elian Herrera made that awkward finger gun gesture as he approached the plate. It was kind of uncomfortable to watch and he looked embarrassed. I'm sure he was when he grounded out to end the inning. At least the Brewers got a run back. Also, I may or may not have made all that up, except for the actual batting results.

The Diamondbacks got the run back in the fifth as Kyle Lohse gave Paul Goldschmidt his 3rd walk of the night. Scooter Gennett's error, on what should have been an inning ending grounder, allowed Goldschmidt to go to second and Miguel Montero to first. Martin Prado's base hit drove in Goldschmidt.

Jonathan Lucroy is no-nonsense so no fanfare preceded his solo home run to left, but it was beautiful nonetheless. Unfortunately, much like with Ramirez's solo shot, it was the only run of the inning. In fact, it was the only hit of the inning.

A scary moment happened in the sixth inning as Lohse beaned, on accident of course, Chris Owings high in the back. It was inches from hitting his helmet. He stayed in the game. One batter latter Lohse nearly missed knocking opposing pitcher Mike Bolsinger in the head, again clearly an accident. The inning ended without further incident and that would end the night for Kyle Lohse. Another quality start (the 4th run was unearned), though a shaky one.

A super awesome moment happened in the seventh as Segura led the inning off with his second triple of the night. Herrera did something productive by flying out to center. A poor throw from centerfielder David Peralta helped allow Segura to score the run bringing the Brewers to within a run of the D-Backs. Right-hander, Evan Marshall, came in on relief to face Lyle Overbay and Scooter Gennett in back to back at-bats. Overbay singled and Gennett lined in a double. Ryan Braun stepped to the plate with one out and runners at second and third.

I was confused why the right-hander came in to face two guys who can't get a hit off a LHP to save their lives. The answer readily presented itself. Marshall with his first pitch to Ryan Braun went behind him. With his second pitch he didn't miss catching Braun on his gluteus maximus. If it wasn't clear to anyone, Kirk Gibson made sure everyone knew it was intentional with a fist bump to Marshall on his way back to the dugout after being ejected to the game. The rest of the Diamondback dugout greeted him with high-fives. This kind of behavior is absolutely reprehensible. People like Kirk Gibson and by extension the entire Diamondbacks' 25 man rosterare an embarrassment to baseball.

Still in the seventh inning, Jonathan Lucroy came to the plate with the newly loaded bases and one out. Lucroy presented Kirk Gibson and the Diamondbacks a big jolly "F--- YOU" with a grand slam. Added emotion is of course my own invention as Lucroy, consummate professional, simply rounded the bases like he would for any other home run. It wasn't a cheap one either. It went out straight to center. After the seventh inning was finished the Brewers had taken the 7-4 lead.

With a three run lead intact, Francisco Rodriguez took the mound in the ninth for the save. It wouldn't be an easy save as Roger Kieschnick led off the inning with his first career home run. Cody Ross followed up with a single. The next batter struck out, but Gerardo Parra lined to put runners at 1st and 2nd with one out for Paul Goldschmidt. After 3 walks in the game you could almost feel a game winning home run coming. Instead K-Rod got his second strikeout of the inning. Tense is an understatement as Miguel Montero came to the plate and supreme relief is also an understatement as he quickly grounded out on the first pitch. The good guys won.

They're back at tomorrow to try to make it 3 in a row as Matt Garza faces Wade Miley. Start time is 8:40 pm CT.

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Brewers trade pitcher Brad Mills to Athletics for cash considerations
• 2014 BCB NL All-Star Roster Vote: Outfielders
• An Interview with Brewers 3rd round pick Cy Sneed
• What we learned: June 17, 2014
• Minor League Notes, 2014-06-17

Tonight, "protecting players" trumped winning, stupidity trumped tactical decision making, and the Brewers trumped the Dbacks.

Record: 30-44 On Pace: 66-96 Change on '13: -11

This game started off so promisingly. Mike Bolsinger got a 1-2-3 inning to start things off, striking out Ryan Braun and getting easy outs from Scooter Gennet and Johnathon Lucroy. It got even better in the bottom of the inning, though. Didi Gregorius got grazed by a pitch to lead the game off. Remember that. It's important later. Geraldo Parra got a single, and then Paul Goldschmidt walked, loading the bases, no outs. Then the Diamondbacks started making them pay. Montero got an RBI single, keeping the bases loaded. Prado almost hit into a double play, but legged it out, getting an RBI of his own, sending Miguel Montero to third, and scoring Goldy, only one out. Montero was then brought home by David Peralta grounding into a fielder's choice. That was it for the inning, but it was the end of the first, and the Dbacks were up 3-0.

Bolsinger kept rolling. He hit a couple rough patches, gave up a couple solo home runs, but through six innings, he scattered five hits around, and, more importantly I think, was pounding the strike zone and being very economical. A great night from him, plus did not give up a single walk on the night. He just mowed through the Brewers tonight. Hats off to him.

On the home half of the innings, the Dbacks stayed pretty quiet after the first. Prado drove in another run in the fifth to give the Dbacks a 4-2 lead, and things were looking up. Then Chris Owings was hit in the back by a pitch, which then ricocheted into his helmet. The next batter was Bolsinger. Kyle Loshe lost control of one and sent it over Bolsinger's head. Most nights, this wouldn't be anything more than a footnote in the game. Tonight wasn't most nights, however, and it proved pivotal.

Bolsinger started the seventh inning. He gave up a lead off triple, which he then allowed to score on a sac fly. Gibson removed Bolsinger for Evan Marshall. Marshall came in and gave up a double and a single. Runners at second and third, one out, Ryan Braun at the plate. So what does Marshall do? Tries to hit Braun, and misses. Gets a word from the umpire. Tries again. Hits him. Loads the bases with one out. Intentionally.

Generally speaking, I'm okay with defending your teammates. Not only did I support Ian Kennedy when he hit Kershaw, I vocally defended him on several corners of the internet. Tonight, none of that applies. Tonight was stupid for so many different reasons. Reason number one! There wasn't a reason to retaliate. It's that simple. Loshe lost a couple pitches. Owings got hit. So did Didi, supposedly. You're being paid more than something like 95% of the country's population to play a children's game. You are more than compensated for that occupational hazard. Get over it.

Reason number two! This is the reason that should resonate the most with a professional baseball team. They weren't playing to win. When you load the bases with one out, you will give up at least one run 67% of the time. So with tonight's score, the Brewers will at least tie the game 2/3 of the time. In bases loaded, one out situations, you will give up, on average, 1.6 runs, meaning, the Brewers will not just tie the game, most of the time, they will take the lead. If you intentionally give them that sort of chance, you are intentionally losing the game. That is disrespectful to the game, to your team, and, most importantly, the fans who stick through crappy seasons like this one, and essentially sign your paychecks.

In short, Mike Bolsinger, who pitched a hell of a game, deserved better. The offense, who Marshall and Gibson were supposedly trying to protect, deserved better after the four runs they scored tonight. The fans deserved better. This was pathetic.

After that, most of the Dbacks just went away quietly. One last note of interest, Roger Kieschnick, our much-maligned backup outfielder, hit his first career home run. It was a poolshot to lead off the ninth inning. It really sucks that it's going to be overshadowed, but but good for you, Kieschnick.

Source: FanGraphs

Irrelevant in the end: Geraldo Parra, 9.6%

Victim of Karma: Brad Ziegler, -39.9%

Dumbass: Evan Marshall, -23.6%

Busy GDT tonight. Huh, wonder why. TolkienBard lead the way with almost one hundred comments, and Clefo and Skins trailed fairly distantly behind. All present were...

4 Corners Fan, BrokeNBattleX, BulldogsNotZags, Clefo, DbacksSkins, DeadmanG, Edwong81, GuruB, Jim McLennan, JoeCB1991, Majabe, Makakilo, MrMrrbi, SenSurround, SongBird, TheTrooper, TolkienBard, Zavada's Moustache, catbat, cheese1213, cwolf20, hotclaws, imstillhungry95, mattrsiu, oldspartan, onedotfive, preston.salisbury, rd33, stempke, txzona

Thank you. Well, join us again tomorrow. Same teams, same time, same place. It's going to be interesting to see how the two teams respond.

CotN goes to Clefo. Clefo, can you sum up what I said in almost 700 words in five words?

GIBSON/MARSHALL YOU DUMB MOTHERF****ERS

weltanschauung

by Clefo on Jun 17, 2014 | 8:38 PMreply unrec (2)actions

Thank you. Well, join us again tomorrow. Same teams, same time, same place. It's going to be interesting to see how the two teams respond.

Tuesday's Brewers minor league action

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 38-35
Lost 8-7 at Las Vegas 51s (NYM) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 35-30
Won 10-5 vs Dunedin Blue Jays (TOR) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) 1-1
Won 9-2 vs Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Marco Estrada has already allowed 23 home runs in 2014 at a rate of 2.46 per nine innings. Don't expect that to continue.

Marco Estrada doesn't have 99 problems, he only has one. The home run. In 84 innings this year, he's turned in 74 strikeouts and 27 walks, which equates to very solid 21.2% and 7.7% strikeout and walk rates. Those are fine numbers for a starting pitcher and should equate to a nice season for Estrada, except for the fact that he's allowed 23 home runs. Oops.

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Do the math and Estrada has a 2.46 HR/9 and a resulting 5.92 FIP which are both numbers that would make Helen Lovejoy ask "won't someone please think of the children?!" Avert your eyes. But I'm here to tell you that Estrada's insane home run rate is a mirage. Don't get me wrong, Estrada is going to allow plenty of home runs, but his 1.50 career HR/9 is the much better bet going forward.

Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher and he's always been that way, but far too many of them are carrying over the fence. He currently has a 18.7 HR/FB%, which is comically high and unsustainable, but we can dig a little deeper and show you just how unlucky he's been. Estrada's not an elite arm, but this is one of those times where xFIP is your friend.

ESPN's Home Run Tracker tells us that the average home run travels about 395-400 feet. This year, Estrada has allowed nine home runs that traveled 380 or fewer feet and four that traveled 370 or fewer feet. The average home run is hit at 103 mph. Estrada has allowed five home runs at slower than 98 mph.

At a rate of 1.50 HR/9, Estrada would have allowed about 14 home runs and xFIP agrees. The tracker says nine of his 23 home runs are "just enough" or "lucky." If you subtract nine from 23, you get 14, which is very convenient. Estrada is running into some bad luck.

He's certainly allowed a lot of home runs this year, but he's not this homer prone. If the Brewers stick it out, things will get back to normal. I mean, just look at this:

...

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and ESPN's Home Run Tracker.

Neil Weinberg is the Associate Managing Editor at Beyond The Box Score, a contributor to Gammons Daily, and can also be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow @NeilWeinberg44