Tonight was an otherwise good game by the Diamondbacks marred by one horrendous half inning where everything went wrong. Unfortunately for any enthusiasm fans may have had for this game, that half inning also happened to be the bottom of the first. Nine Brewers went to the plate, five of them scored, four of them got hits, there was an error by Chris Owings, and an airmailed throw by Ender Inciarte that somehow wasn't scored as an error. By the end of the inning, the Dbacks had not only squandered the 2-0 lead that Paul Goldschmit's home run had given them, they were down by three runs.
The Dbacks never gave up, though. They kept clawing back, getting a run in both the fifth and sixth innings to get within a run. Josh Collmenter also buckled down after the rocky start to the game, going another four and two thirds scoreless innings to allow the team to get back in the game. Then, in the eighth inning, a Goldschmidt double, Miguel Montero single, and an Aaron Hill home run gave the Dbacks a 7-5 lead. Zeros in the bottom of the eighth and nine from Brad Zeigler and Addison Reed gave the Dbacks the win. The full (happy!) recap to follow.
Tsuyoshi Wada allowed a two-run home run in the bottom of the first inning, which immediately doubled the number of earned runs he allowed this season. He later gave up a solo home run to former Cubs farmhand Justin Bour in the sixth inning. But it was still a "quality start" for Wada as he allowed three runs on six hits over six innings. He walked two and struck out one.
Zac Rosscup pitched a perfect bottom of the tenth inning and got the win. He struck out one.
Marcos Mateo pitched the bottom of the 11th and collected his second save, but not without some drama. Mateo walked two batters in the inning and was facing runners on first and second with only one out, but a 4-6-3 double play ended the game.
Josh Vitters extended his consecutive home run streak to three games with a two-run home run in the second inning. Then he clobbered a second two-run home run in the fourth inning, giving him six on the season. Vitters was 2 for 4.
Logan Watkins scored the eventual winning run in the top of the eleventh on a wild pitch. Watkins was 2 for 5.
First baseman Chris Valaika was 2 for 5 and scored on both of Vitters' home runs.
Iowa struck out 17 times in this game and only walked once. They won anyway. At least the walk went to Javier Baez.
For the second start in a row, Matt Loosen allowed one run over five innings. He allowed the one run on four hits, but mostly on that solo home run he gave up in the fourth inning. Loosen struck out seven and walked two.
Jose Veras pitched a 1-2-3 inning in a rehab assignment. He struck out one.
Ryan Searle picked up his third win after he tossed two scoreless innings of relief. Searle gave up three hits, but didn't walk anyone. He struck out one.
Tony Zych started the ninth inning, but he was pulled with two on and two outs in the inning. So Hunter Cervenka took over to face the tough left-hander Micah Johnson (batting .344) and struck him out for his first save of the season.
The Smokies took the lead for good when Anthony Giansanti led off the bottom of the seventh inning with his first home run of the season. Giansanti was 1 for 2 after entering the game in the sixth.
Second baseman Stephen Bruno was 3 for 3 with a double and a walk. He scored once. Catcher Charlie Cutler was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI. Jae-Hoon Ha was 2 for 4. He scored once and had one RBI.
Starting pitcher Tayler Scott had control problems, which lead to a five-run second inning. Three times in the second, Scott walked in a run with the bases loaded. Scott finished the day allowing five runs on four hits over 4.2 innings. Scott walked five and hit two batters. He struck out three.
Daytona managed four hits today, and two of them were by Tim Saunders, who was 2 for 4 with a double.
Albert Almora was 1 for 3 with a double, a walk and a stolen base. He scored the only Daytona run on a sac fly in the seventh inning.
Brandon Kintzler blew a 5-4 lead in the eighth, and the Brewers will have to win tomorrow to take the series.
W: Marshall, 1-0
L: Kintzler, 1-1
HR: Goldschmidt (6), Owings (1), Hill (3)
We could frame this one as the bullpen blowing one, as Brandon Kintzler will get credited with both a blown save and a loss after giving up 3 runs trying to defend a 5-4 lead in the 8th inning. But this game was also about the offense sputtering again after an error-aided 5-run first, barely even getting close to scoring as pitching staff slowly gave away runs and the Brewers fell 7-5 to the Diamondbacks.
Paul Goldschmidt hit a 2-run home run aginst Marco Estrada in the top of the first, but the floodgates finally opened in the bottom half for a season-high 5 run inning. The Brewers certainly did hit Collmenter hard, but a low throw and botched pick by Goldschmidt at first allowed Khris Davis to reach after a hit by Gennett, walk from Lucroy, and single from Overbay scored a run. Jean Segura then cracked a single and Logan Schafer hit a long double over the head of Gerardo Parra in right.
Basically nothing happened after that until the fifth. The Brewers remembered that they couldn't hit Josh Collmenter for some reason and never got very close to scoring. In that fifth inning, the Diamondbacks small-balled in a leadoff walk (via their extreme grit) to make the lead 5-3 on a RBI groundout by Collmenter.
Chris "Not Micah" Owings led off the top of the sixth with his first major league home run. A pair of fantastic defensive plays by Segura to get Estrada through of the inning. The first was a diving stop to his right after which he popped up and made a strong throw to get Goldschmidt. Estrada then issued a walk but got a pop-out, and Segura ranged to his left and made a strong throw to first from behind second base to get Martin Prado.
Tyler Thornburg pitched a scoreless seventh but Brandon Kintzler got in major trouble in the 8th. He left pitches up to three consecutive batters: Paul Goldschmidt doubled to right, Miguel Olivo hit a hard single to drive him in, and then Aaron Hill hit a home run to deep left. In the span of 5 pitches the lead was gone. It's completely out of character for Kintzler, who has not looked the same since returning from the DL and from the looks of it may be heading back there.
The Brewers did not get anything out of the infield against righty specialist Brad Ziegler in the 8th. In the top of the ninth, there was a Wei-Chung Wang sighting as Roenicke let him work to he bottom of the order down only 2 runs. Wang loaded the bases but showed a bit of poise striking out Miguel Montero to get out of the inning.
In the ninth the Brewers fared no better than in the previous 7 innings. Schafer led off the inning with a strikeout, and pinch-hitter Caleb Gindl took a called third strike that was a bit off the edge of the plate but a strikeout nonetheless. Carlos Gomez popped out in foul territory to end the game.
The game tonight was marked by a lot of firsts, both firsts as in things that happened for the first time, and as in the first inning.
Record: 12-24 On Pace: 54-108 Change on '04, '10, '13: -2/-2/-9
The first inning of tonight's game was eventful, demoralizing, and seeming indicative of how the evening was going to go for the Diamondbacks. In the top of the first, everything seemed to be going the Dbacks way. Parra lead the game off with a single, and was brought home by the firstPaul Goldschmidt home run I've listened to this season. However, thanks to some disastrous defense in the bottom of the first, that lead wouldn't hold up. Nine Brewers went to the plate, five of them scored, on four hits. Chris Owings bounced a throw to Goldschmidt, which allowed a run to score, and Ender Inciarte completely airmailed a throw to the plate which allowed another run to score. Also featuring prominently were RBI doubles for Lyle Overbay and Logan Schafer. Of the five runs given up in the first inning, only one was earned.
The Dbacks never let that get to them, though, and kept battling back for the rest of the game. In the fifth inning, A.J. Pollock lead the inning off with a walk, and was brought home by a Josh Collmenter one-out single to cut the Brewers' lead down to two runs. Then in the sixth, Chris Owings hit his first Big League home run to bring the Dbacks within a run.
Meanwhile, Collmenter was completely shutting down Milwaukee. After the first inning, he pitched another four and two thirds innings, giving up zero runs, four hits, two strikeouts, and no walks. Without that kind of performance, there is no way the Dbacks win this game. He was pulled in with two on and two outs in the sixth for Evan Marshall,in his first appearance in the Majors, who got Carlos Gomez to ground out to short and end the inning.
Finally, in the seventh inning, the Dbacks struck big. Goldschmidt started things off right with a double. He was brought home the next batter by a Miguel Montero single to tie the game, and then Aaron Hill hit a two-run home run which ended up being the difference in this one. Dbacks 7, Brewers 5.
Marshall, now in line for his first win, came back out for the bottom of the seventh, recorded his first two strike outs, and sat the Brewers down in order. Brad Ziegler and Addison Reed did the same in the eighth and ninth innings respectively to close out my first winning recap and the game.
A quiet thread tonight, with yours truely leading the comment count with only 39 comments. Preston.salisbury and onedotfive rounded out the podium with 37 each. All present were:
AzDbackfanInDc, AzRattler, Clefo, DbacksSkins, DeadmanG, EzioExManAZ, GODSCHMIDT, GuruB, Jim McLennan, JoeCB1991, JoelPre, John Baragona, Makakilo, Marc Fournier, MrMrrbi, SenSurround, TolkienBard,backtocali, blank_38, cheese1213, cole8865, dsadbacks2001, hotclaws, imstillhungry95, makattack71, onedotfive,preston.salisbury, txzona
Early, early start time tomorrow and radio only, with a 10:10 am Arizona time start. If that's something you'd be interested in, see you then!
The rubber game of this three-game series in Milwaukee sees Bronson Arroyo try to build upon a very solid outing last time. But will the Brewers be as easy meat for him as the Padres were in San Diego?
Some changes in the line-up today, with no place for Chris Owings, despite hitting his first major-league home-run in last night comeback victory. He's replaced by Pennington, and the other half of the middle infield, Aaron Hill - who had the two-run homer which won the game for us - is also rewarded with a day on the pine, Chavez playing instead, with Prado sliding over to second-base. Ross also returns, replacing Alfredo Marte, and is hitting fifth because he handles right-handers so well. Okay, he's actually 3-for-33 against them this year. So it must be because #Gibbyball. Pollock is back in center, so his groin must have made a miraculous recovery overnight.
Bit of an early start here. I didn't realize Milwaukee had re-located to the Eastern seaboard, but that seems the only logical way to explain today's 10:10am first pitch in Arizona. Of course, they do have the long trip to the next destination on their road-trip: I think US Cellular Field is as much as 97 miles from Miller Park, so it's a good job they have an off-day tomorrow, because the jet-lag is going to be horrific. Yeah, I am being sarcastic, in case that wasn't abundantly apparent. This game isn't on TV in Arizona either, which will make it that much easier to ignore, in the likely event (about a two in three chance, thus far) of a Diamondbacks loss.
Bronson Arroyo pitched 7.1 solid innings for the Diamondbacks, keeping the Brewers offense off balance. Milwaukee's only run came in the first inning, an unearned run thanks to a fielding error by Martin Prado, but Arroyo kept the Brewers bats fairly quiet for the rest of his outing. Milwaukee hit into four double plays to help keep the bases clear, including one when Brad Ziegler replaced Bronson Arroyo and allowed a single to load the bases. Addison Reed came in and allowed one run in the ninth, but struck out Mark Reynolds to earn the save.
The Arizona offense was more active than the home team's, putting up fourteen hits on the afternoon, but they stranded a baker's dozen of players on the bases. The majority of Arizona's runs came early on, thanks to a two run Paul Goldschmidt home run in the second inning, his seventh of the season. Bronson Arroyo scored an insurance run in the top of the eighth, scoring on Lyle Overbay's fielding error. The win gives Arizona a series victory over Milwaukee as they head to Chicago to face the White Sox on Friday.
If you can remove yourself from the disappointing finish to last night's game between the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox, there's actually a decent bit to be happy about. Homer Bailey struggled early, but he still limited a team that scored 57 more runs than any other in baseball last year to just 3 in 6 innings; the Reds rallied late, on the road, against an elite reliever in Junichi Tazawa; both Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart continued their recent strings of hot-hitting; and Tucker Barnhart looked plenty capable of controlling the rigors of being a Major League catcher.
A loss is still a loss, however, and the Reds will take the field behind Mike Leake tonight in an effort to salvage a series split, and since the good guys have another off-day scheduled for tomorrow, this will be your last chance to watch the Reds play for longer than a Hideo Nomo windup. Leake has gone at least 7 innings in each of his last three starts, the most recent of which was an 8 inning, 2 run performance in a loss against the Milwaukee Brewers five days ago. More of that would be nice, Michael.
The Red Sox will counter with Jake Peavy, who has managed a 2.87 ERA through his first six starts despite a WHIP of 1.35, which suggests the Split-Squad Reds may have a puncher's chance against the former NL Cy Young Award winner. Peavy is 6-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 10 career starts against the Reds (mostly from his time with the San Diego Padres years ago), but aside from Brandon Phillips, nobody in tonight's lineup has ever really faced him enough for it to matter (except for NERTS, who nipped a Peavy pitch for a dinger once upon a time).
I recommend reading the whole thing first so you can get the tone of the piece. One of the big "aha!" parts is that the Reds and Brewers have been about equally effective teams so far because of their similar run differentials. Here he is talking about the strong Brewer start:
How? We keep talking about their pitching! Except they've given up 11 more runs than the Cardinals, 13 more than the Reds. It's not their pitching. Not really. It's really as simple as this: the Milwaukee Brewers are 12-3 in games decided by one or two runs. Despite what you might hear on the radio, a team's record in close games is determined largely by luck, along with a small dollop of relief pitching.
Run differential is often a very good way to find out if a team is overperforming or underperforming over a period. The general idea is that players are not really all too concerned with the game situation when they are playing. A pitcher pitching with a 1-run lead isn't going to try harder to not give up a run than a pitcher down 3 runs. A hitter batting down 4 or up 3 isn't trying to make an out in one situation or the other. Over a longer period, the logic goes, this sort of thing tends to even out. A team getting unlucky and bunching up their runs in wins but going cold in other games, or in contrast spreading out runs evenly on defense, is probably better than their record indicates.
This is generally good logic. It's also our rationale for the context-neutral hitting and fielding statistics that build WAR. But it breaks down a bit when we're talking about a team winning mostly based on a great back-end of a bullpen like the Brewers have so far.
Let's say a team's 5th or 6th best reliever had a FIP and ERA of around 4 through a month and a half of the season. That reliever is probably going to have a fairly low average leverage index, which is a measure of the importance of a game situation in which the reliever is used. But that reliever is probably going to have to pitch in some high-leverage situations from time to time-- when other relievers are tired or when games go to extra innings, for example. If that reliever happened to be pitching well in the high-leverage situations, and not well in the low-leverage situations, that would be some pretty good evidence that the team is not as good as its record. But if it's Zach Duke, and he's been stellar in mop-up duty as well as extra innings, your team might just be playing really well.
Overall, the Brewers have both had pitchers throwing extremely well overall and have also done a pretty good job of getting those relievers high-leverage innings. An average starter's inning has a leverage index of 1, and a leverage index of 2 is about twice as important as average, and .5 is about half as important. So far, here are the Brewer LI when they have entered the game. They also haven't been too concerned about punting a couple of games with Wei-Chung Wang on the mound.
Reliever
gLI
FIP
Rodriguez
1.80
1.18
Smith
1.62
2.14
Henderson
1.38
4.62
Duke
1.33
1.86
Thornburg
1.27
2.08
Kintzler
1.26
5.79
Wooten
.76
4.97
Wang
.38
9.62
Here's a good argument for why the Brewers will not keep playing .800 ball in 1 run games and .600 ball overall: their relievers are not as good as they have pitched so far, with their four best relievers all checking in with a FIP of around 2. Those relievers are probably going to fall off as the year goes on. But here's a not-so-great argument-- the fact that they have given up more runs than the Reds means their pitching staff has been worse so far, and they've mostly gotten lucky to win so many close games. That obscures what's been happening. Given their usage and performance so far, the great 1 run game record and fantastic record overall is pretty much what we should have expected.
Neyer does end by acknowledging that the Brewers have a good enough head start on the division that they do need to be taken seriously. But...
None of this means the Brewers aren't a good baseball team. Right now, they're ... actually, I'm not convinced they're good. Take away these unsustainable things -- by the way, I haven't even mentioned Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds yet -- and they're just fair. The Brewers have a lovely head start on winning 90-some games. But they'll need a new formula for the rest of the season, probably something that includes Jean Segura, Aramis Ramirez and Khris Davis hitting a lot better than they have. Because there's very little help on the way.
Doesn't that sound more like a reason for optimism? The Brewers have gotten to this impressive division lead with some very underwhelming offensive performances (and Neyer can say what he wants but I think Carlos Gomez is a bit more than "fair" at this point and more of "really good"). But if we're going to just bank that the bullpen will be getting worse just because it's been good, can we also bank that those hitters will get better because they have been pretty bad?
Or maybe that's like the proverbial squirrel. But with no TV broadcast, at least we prevailed?
Record: 13-24 On Pace: 57-105 Change on '04, '10, '13: -1/-2/-8
If they played a game and no one in Phoenix could watch it, did it still happen? I hope so, since we won.
Okay, some feelings of DOOOOOOM may have prevailed early on in this one for Diamondbacks, particularly in the bottom of the first. After wasting runners at the corners in the top of the inning, Carlos Gomez started the bottom of the inning with a bunt single. Gomez went all the way to third base on a fielding error by Martin Prado, and scored on a double play ball by Jonathan Lucroy. 1-0, Brewers, thanks to some sloppy play.
The second inning was more missed opportunities for the DBacks- it's an ongoing theme- wasting runners at the corners with one out. But Arroyo at least made it through the inning well- Jean Segura had a two out single, but he was caught stealing. Well, that came as a surprise to most of us, I think.
The top of the third went much better for Arizona. Martin Prado singled to start the inning, and Paul Goldschmidt went up and did what he does best, homering to deep left field, and giving the Diamondbacks a 2-1 lead.
And then the game got into a bit of a rhythm. DBacks would get a runner on and waste it, Arroyo would go out and keep the Brewers off the board. Fourth inning- DBacks strand Parra, Brewers hit into an inning ending double play. Fifth- DBacks strand Cody Ross and Eric Chavez, Brewers can't take advantage of a free walk. Sixth- Parra's stranded again, and the Brewers double play their way out of the inning. Seventh- Montero's stranded on third, and Arroyo goes 1-2-3.
Things finally got a little more interesting in the eighth inning- while we discussed how much more of a leash Arroyo would get, he was sent out to hit in the top of the inning, and singled to center field. Arroyo then showed off some wheels and good baserunning, going all the way to third on a wild pitch. Gerardo Parra reached on an error by Lyle Overbay that simultaneously let Arroyo come in to score, stretching that least out to 3-1.
Arroyo went out in the bottom of the eighth, giving up a lead off single before getting Segura to pop out to right. After a walk to Logan Shafer, Gibby decided that was enough, pulling Arroyo and sending in Brad Ziegler. Who then gave up a single to Rickie Weeks to load the bases. But Zieglers gonna zieg, and before you could ask what zieging is (a 12th century Germanic agricultural technique), he got Carlos Gomez to ground into a double play to end the inning.
The only noise in the top of the ninth was a single and a stolen base for Eric Chavez (really?), but again he was stranded as we went to the bottom of the inning. Addison Reed came in for the save and made the game a little more interesting than we wanted, giving up a lead off double to Scooter Gennett. Jonathan Lucroy lined out to right, advancing Scooter to third, and he came in to cut the lead to one on a Lyle Overbay sacrifice fly. But Mark Reynolds came to the plate with the game on the line and did what we saw him do so often- strike out, that is, not hit a home run- and the game was saved, letting Arizona leave Milwaukee with win and a series victory.
Also of interest on the WPA chart is Gerardo Parra, who managed 0.0% in five at-bats. We stranded far too many runners on base- thirteen, to be precise, but Arroyo and the bullpen managed to do just enough to earn the win for Arizona. It wasn't pretty- well, it didn't sound pretty, at least- but a W is a W.
A fairly busy afternoon in the comment thread for a morning game that wasn't on TV in Arizona. DBacksSkins led the comment count, with JoeCB1991 and preston.salisbury in second and third. Also piping up in the peanut gallery were AzDbackfanInDc, Circa4life, Clefo, DeadmanG, EzioExManAZ, GODSCHMIDT, GuruB, Jim McLennan, John Baragona, Makakilo, PR151, SenSurround, TolkienBard, Turambar, backtocali, cheese1213, dbrowell, dsadbacks2001, ex-distancerunner, frienetic, gamepass, hotclaws, kishi, onedotfive, and txzona.
So a series win against a relatively respectable opponent, and now the team takes a day off tomorrow before heading to the south side of Chicago to dabble in some interleague play against the White Sox. Well, at least they've got the time to travel all those miles.
Kris Bryant had the biggest game of his professional career as the Smokies humiliated the Birmingham Barons.
The Cubs, horrible copycats that they are, named Will Remillard and Tsuyoshi Wada as their Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Month. Those were your choices for April as well.
Starter Dae-Eun Rhee allowed a solo home run to Kevan Smith in the top of the second, but afterwards he cruised to an easy win. Rhee went seven innings and surrendered only three hits. He walked two and struck out two.
Arodys Vizcaino pitched a perfect bottom of the ninth in his Smokies debut. He struck out two.
Bryant his his first home run with two men on in the first inning to give Tennessee and early 3-0 lead. His second one was a solo home run to right-center in the fifth inning. In the eighth inning, he just missed his third home run of the season, but settled for a two-run double off the top of the wall. Bryant's final line for the night was 3 for 4 with a walk. He scored four runs and had six RBI. It was the first multi-homer game of Bryant's career.
Second baseman Stephen Bruno has also been red hot, as he hit three doubles in a 3 for 4 night. He also walked once. Bruno scored three times and had two RBI.
Left fielder John Andreoli went 2 for 2 with two walks and two stolen bases. Andreoli scored four times.
Center fielder Jae-Hoon Ha was 2 for 5 with two RBI.
Starter Rob Zastryzny exited this game in the fifth inning when he was hit in his pitching arm by a line drive. Before that, he pitched 4.2 innings and allowed four runs on nine hits. He walked one and struck out five.
Right fielder Pin-Chieh Chen went 2 for 3 with a walk and a run scored.
Justin Amlung got the start this morning and he pitched great except for the two home runs he allowed. All three of the runs he allowed over the six innings scored on the two home runs. Those were two of the only four hits he allowed. Amlung struck out five and didn't walk anyone.
Michael Wagner made his first appearance of the season and he pitched well for two innings, keeping the Rattlers scoreless. But when he started the top of the ninth inning, he got in trouble and allowed two runs. Wagner's final line was 2.2 innings, allowing two runs on four hits. He walked two and did not record a strikeout.
The Cougars looked to come back in the bottom of the ninth when third baseman David Bote doubled and pinch-hitter Will Remillard singled, putting runners on first and third with only one out. But both Jacob Hannemann and Carlos Penalver struck out to end the game.
Bote was 2 for 3. Hannemann was 1 for 5 with a triple and a run scored. First baseman Jacob Rogers went 2 for 4.
The Yankees take the series against the Angels behind the great pitching of Vidal Nuno. Jeter gets his first HR of the year. Offense was great. Defense was great.
The first game of this three game series against the Angels was brutal, which made the last two games against them feel really good. The Yankees won tonight's game 9-2 and take the series against the Angels. Series wins are always good.
Vidal Nuno faced the Angels a little under two weeks ago and only lasted 4.1 innings against them. Tonight's outing against them went a lot better than the first. Nuno managed to pitch an impressive 6.1 innings, giving up only four hits and one earned run while striking out three batters and walking one. Nuno's only bad inning of the night was the 2nd inning, where he seemingly lost control. However, he managed to hold the Angels to one run that inning, the only run he would give up all game. Other than that, he was very efficient tonight, retiring thirteen batters in a row after that second inning. His 6.1 innings pitched would be the longest outing of his career. Great to see.
The offense decided that it was tired of having to constantly come back from an early deficit, and took matters into their own hands. They had help from the Angels defense tonight though. In the first inning, Jacoby Ellsbury would lead off with a walk. New paddleboard owner Derek Jeter, courtesy of the Angels, would get on base via a fielding error, courtesy of the Angels. Carlos Beltran would walk to load the bases for the red hot, kale loving Mark Teixeira, who "powersauced" a couple of runs in with a double down the third base line. Alfonso Soriano would strike out swinging. Yangervis Solarte would knock in a run with a sac fly to make the score 3-0. Brett Gardner would then drive in Tex from second via a single and an error from the pitcher, Hector Santiago. After Gardner took third on the wild pitch, Brian Roberts would drive him in with bloop a hit into right field. 5-0 Yankees before the Angels got in the batter's box. Excellent.
In the second inning, Derek Jeter would hit his last first HR of the year to give the Yankees a 6-0 lead. It's okay to feel emotions. The Yankee would tack on three more runs in the Top of the 8th inning. A combination of Dellin Betances and Preston Claiborne would close out the game for the Yankees, sending them to Milwaukee with a series win against the Angels. The Yankees take the season series from the Angels 4-2. They will not see them again this year.
The Yankees have a day off tomorrow, then Friday they will start a three game series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Masahiro Tanaka will pitch (and....gulp, bat) the first game at Miller Park. Hopefully, we'll see the classic Milwaukee Brewers logo at least one of the games there.
The ace of the Reds pitching staff doesn't pitch the way he's supposed to. He pitches better than that.
There are few success stories in baseball that can claim to be both as sustained and unexplained as that of Johnny Cueto. Signed for just $3,500 out of the Dominican Republic in 2004, the current ace of the Cincinnati Reds staff was universally overlooked as a miscast outfielder, and had former scout Johnny Almaraz not coincidentally been in the Domincian Republic during one of Cueto's first converted pitching showcases, there's a very good chance that Johnny would never have been given a shot as a Red, either. Fortunately, the then-Reds scout (who also was responsible for the Reds signing Adam Dunn, Jason LaRue, and B.J. Ryan, among others) saw enough from Cueto in his lone pitching showcase to take a flier on an 18 year old converted outfielder who, at that point, was no more than an all-arms 5' 10" teenager.
Cueto has been anything but conventional from the day he was discovered, and that's likely why trying to quantify what he's accomplished has been, too. He entered his April 22, 2014 start against the Pittsburgh Pirates having been worth 0.7 fWAR on the young season, and he promptly threw a 1-run, 3-hit complete game that featured a 0.67 WHIP, and for his efforts he earned .435 WPA.
He exited that start with his season's fWAR having declined by 0.1.
I began asking questions.
The April 22nd complete game in which he allowed just a single run was 6 days removed from his previous start, which was, similarly, a start in which he threw a complete game against the very same Pittsburgh Pirates. Following the game on the 22nd, Brayan Pena, Cueto's catcher on the evening, had a quote that put the entire fWAR process into question.
"Johnny was great, he pitched a great game," Reds catcher Brayan Pena said. "He pitched them differently this time and he had them off balance. Back-to-back complete games is pretty good. That doesn't happen too often."
He pitched them differently this time, and he had them off balance.
Tasked with pitching back to back starts against the same team, Cueto chose to attack the Pirates in a different manner the second time he faced them, because they were certainly going to do their video homework after having fanned 12 times in a complete game, 3-hit shutout six days before. So he threw his slider slightly less, his cut fastball slightly more (and harder), added nearly 2 mph to his fastball average, and he swapped the strikeouts for ground outs as he once again breezed through the Pittsburgh lineup.
And for that, his season became less valuable.
Photo Credit: Frank Victores, USA TODAY Sports
The semi-interesting story behind his fWAR decrease is because the statistic places value on pitchers based largely on FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which more or less attempts to standardize what pitchers' results should look like without the effects of defense and/or bad luck. Say, for instance, a pitcher had 40 year old Derek Jeter as his SS and Dan Uggla as his 2B; if the pitcher struck out 8 guys per 9 innings and induced a lot of grounders when not striking guys out, he'd allow a lot more hits up the middle (and, eventually, runs) than a guy who had, say, Andrelton Simmons at SS and 28 year old Brandon Phillips at 2B and struck out batters at a similar rate. FIP attempts to normalize that, and focuses solely on a pitcher's strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen, and dingers allowed, because in theory, those are the things that the pitcher can "control."
So when Cueto first faced the Pirates and struck out 12 of them en route to a complete game, 3 hit, no walk shutout, his game FIP was a tiny 0.43.
Six days later, when Cueto threw a complete game, 3 hit, 4 strikeout, 3 walk game against the Pirates in which he got 15 ground ball outs, his game FIP was 4.20.
There is no context for the fact that Cueto had to navigate through the same pool of hitters two games in a row. The first time he faced Andrew McCutchen in the second game doesn't count towards how a pitcher fared against a hitter during his fourth time through the lineup, though the change in Cueto's pitch repertoire certainly suggests that's how he operated in the situation. Similarly, if Cueto were to throw a complete game, 3 hit shutout in Friday's game against the Colorado Rockies, he'd earn no extra credit for having done it against an offense with a team OPS 100 points higher than any other team in the league than he would if he threw it against the league-worst San Diego Padres offense.
FIP and Cueto have never really been on the same page. In fact, in each of the seven seasons in which he's made starts for the Cincinnati Reds, his FIP has been higher than his actual ERA. The funny thing, though, is that the closest the two stats have ever been to each other came in the two seasons in which Cueto's ERA was at its worst. In Cueto's rookie year of 2008, he threw 174 innings for the Reds and sported a lofty 4.81 ERA and 4.90 FIP, and he followed that up with a 2009 season where had a 4.41 ERA and 4.69 FIP over 171.1 innings pitched. That 2008 season also saw him rank 8th in the National League in K/9, so it wasn't as if he was merely pitching to contact.
A few things changed during the latter part of the 2009 season and the subsequent offseason, however, and their combination has propelled Cueto's success while simultaneously widening the gap between his ERA and the level of success FIP suggests he should have had.
First, the trade that shipped out Edwin Encarnacion and brought Scott Rolen in return took the team's defense to another level from which it has yet to come down. FanGraphs rated the Reds' team defense as the 23rd best in baseball in 2008, but by the end of 2009, they were ranked 2nd overall. They've since followed that by ranking 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd in total runs saved in the years since 2010, and they've consistently ranked in the top 5 in team UZR during that time, too. Next, the Reds hired Bryan Price to be their pitching coach in October of 2009, and the improvement in runs allowed seen by every member of the pitching staff - especially Johnny Cueto - has been significant.
The most important change, however, has come in Cueto's pitching arsenal, something that is surely related to having Price on board. In 2008, Cueto was effectively a two-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on his fastball (61%) and slider (32%), while only mixing in his changeup sparingly (6%). By 2010, however, he'd started throwing his changup more (10%), had added a cutter (8%), and had slowly begun throwing his fastball and slider significantly less often. So far in 2014, he's throwing his fastball just 48% of the time, his slider 13% of the time, and he's begun to lean heavily on a mix of cutters and changeups (18% and 16%, respectively). As a result, he's moved from having just 38% of balls put in play off him be grounders in 2008 to having over 50% of them be grounders since 2010, quite the novel concept in the bandbox that is his home ball park.
What's funny, I guess, is that those evolutionary trends are exactly what FanGraphs writer David Golebiewski began suggesting for Cueto as early as 2008. Citing his fly-ball tendencies and the ballpark in which he pitched the majority of his games, Golebiewski suggested that Cueto should work on his secondary pitches in order to help limit his HR/FB%, a concept considered both tangible and calculated, and following a 2009 season that didn't see Cueto make much progress in that regard, Golebiewski again checked in, still lauding the talent possessed by the Reds right-hander, but again suggesting that unless he modified his approach, he'd have trouble being able to "take the next step."
Since then, Cueto has done exactly what FanGraphs suggested he do to be better, yet FanGraphs has failed to place value on that.
Follow me back a bit, if you will, to when I mentioned a pitcher having Andrelton Simmons at SS and a younger Brandon Phillips at 2B. If you were a pitcher pitching in a tiny ballpark, had that defense behind you, and knew that a modified pitching approach would induce more grounders for them to field, wouldn't you make that a priority in your scheme? Wouldn't you make it a focus to include those kinds of out-making machines as a go-to portion of your repertoire?
Isn't that something you would do everything to try to control?
No, the player who Baseball Reference has as having earned a half win more than any other pitcher in all of baseball in 2014 doesn't even crack the Top 30 at FanGraphs. Baseball Reference, of course, derives their Wins Above Replacement system in large part from Runs Allowed per 9 innings rather than runs that could or should have been allowed based upon a certain way of judging how a pitcher pitches. Once again, it seems the unconventional Cueto has become hard for people to define.
There are aspects of Cueto's game that have fueled the remarkable start to this season that are out of line and will certainly regress. The .153 BABIP hitters have against him will rise, to be sure, and his near 100% strand rate will absolutely diminish, but these are numbers that will hurt his overall ERA, not change the FIP that defines him. In his marvelous 2012 season, batters hit .296 on balls in play off him, he stranded just 78.8% of runners, and while his 2.78 ERA ranked 3rd in the NL, his 3.27 FIP didn't even crack the threshold FanGraphs defines as second tier.
FIP has its merits, to be sure. It can help identify outliers, isolated unsustainable successes, and seasons that buck trends due to luck, but 7 seasons of data is plenty enough to suggest that it does not know what Johnny Cueto is doing. If anything, FIP should act like a flashlight, simply highlighting anomalies that should prompt further inspection. As Tom Tango and Bill James both seem to agree on, true pitching value lies somewhere in between what FIP suggests and what Runs Allowed belies, and there's inherent context to each and every statistic that must be researched and accounted for.
Evaluating pitchers is hard. Evaluating Johnny Cueto is nearly impossible. If seven years of consistent underestimation isn't enough to change how Cueto is valued, it may be time to simply start calling him really damn good.
*Many thanks to my Red Reporter colleague, Grahamophone, for alerting me to Tango's thoughts on the Bill James article.
It's been a tough 7 games for the Brewers and for their fans. But how much should 7 games affect our expectation?
This last time I brought this up was about two weeks ago when Baseball Prospectus first gave the Brewers better chances to win the division than the Cardinals. I only bring it up now because the Brewers have had a pretty ugly 7 game stretch, dropping two series in a row to the Reds and the Diamondbacks. It really sucked, but I'm seeing a lot people ready to proclaim the hot start a fluke and the season over with. "It's May 2013 all over again."
For some reason these people expect us to take this 7 game stretch more seriously than the first 28 games and I don't really get that. I will say this, that series against the Diamondbacks was about as embarrassing for the Brewers as the series where the Cardinals lost to our B-Squad was for them. I think that has a lot to do with the sudden spike in pessimism. The postseason equation has changed, to be sure, but I don't think the sky is falling yet. And hey, even if the sky is falling, the Brewers have a roof! Ba-dum-tssh.
Baseball Prospectus now has the Cardinals chances at winning the division ahead of the Brewers by 2.5%. The Brewers had a 4.5 game lead on the Cards back then and now they have a 4 game lead. When I wrote that first article, the Brewers needed to 74-66 (52.8 Win Percentage) to get to 90 wins. Now they need to go 68-59 (53.5 Win Percentage). So yeah, the needle has changed, but it's really only by a game. The main difference between now and then is the Cardinals have a better chance at getting to 90 wins and taking the NL Central (which will likely take more than 90 wins).
I'm interested to hear your thoughts. I look forward to you guys elaborating in the comments, but for this poll I just want to know if you've changed your expectations from two weeks ago.
Kyle Hendricks started and took the loss after he allowed four unearned runs in the fourth inning. Hendricks pitched six innings and allowed the four runs on eight hits. He struck out six and walked one.
Alberto Cabrera had a bad game. He faced five batters and allowed three singles, a three-run home run and a two-run home run. Five earned runs in 0.0 innings.
Iowa got one run in the eighth inning when Brett Jackson scored on a Matt Szczurground out. Jackson was 1 for 4 and Szczur was 0 for 4.
Pierce Johnson started and allowed three runs on three hits over six innings. So a "quality start." Johnson struck out eight and walked two.
Jose Veras pitched a perfect inning of relief and got the win in a rehab assignment. Veras struck out one.
Armando Rivero got his seventh save, but he did give up his first run since April 11. Rivero pitched two innings and allowed the one run on three hits. He struck out two and walked one.
Third baseman Kris Bryant hit his ninth home run of the season in the fifth inning with the bases empty. Bryant was 3 for 4 with two runs scored.
Right fielder Jorge Soler played his first game since Opening Night and was a perfect 2 for 2 with a two-run double in the third inning. He also walked twice and scored one run.
It was a solid start for Duane Underwood, who allowed one run on seven hits over five innings. Underwood struck out three and walked one.
Juan Paniagua tossed four scoreless innings of relief on Underwood. He gave up four hits. Paniagua struck out five and didn't walk anyone.
After the Cougars took a 2-1 lead in the top of the tenth, Tyler Bremer came on to get the save. By Bremer blew the save when he allowed singles to the first two batters he faced and then uncorked a wild pitch to tie the game. But he got the win when the Cougars scored three more runs in the top of the 11th. Bremer struck out two and walked one.
James Pugliese got his first save of the season pitching the bottom of the eleventh. He gave up a two-out single, but otherwise the inning was without drama. Pugliese struck out one.
The Cougars took the lead for good in the 11th when second baseman David Bote hit a two-run double. He was 2 for 4 and scored a run when the next batter, left fielder Shawon Dunston Jr., tripled him home. Dunston was 3 for 5.
The Shawon-O-Meter 2.0: .243 and rising.
DH Ben Carhart was 2 for 6 with two doubles. One of those doubles gave Kane County the 2-1 lead in the top of the tenth.
First baseman Jacob Rogers went 3 for 5 with two doubles and one run scored.
Kane County is 24-10 and has opened up a five-game lead over second-place Peoria.
With Sunday Night Baseball just three nights away, let's discuss the state of the Cardinals with Buster Olney.
Yesterday, I was fortunate enough to discuss Cardinals baseball with ESPN MLB Insider Buster Olney. The Cardinals are slated for ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball for the second time in as many weeks, this time against the Pirates. Considering the fact that there are so many things happening around the club right now, it was a treat to talk with someone who knows a whole lot more than I do—someone who interacts with team managers, general managers, and players on a regular basis.
Viva El Birdos: Earlier this week, you wrote about Oscar Taveras and the possibility of his call-up to help with a sputtering Cardinals offense. With quotes coming out from both Matheny and Mozeliak since then, what are your thoughts on the topic now?
Buster Olney: Really no different than what I was thinking on Sunday, when I wrote that piece about how he’s an option that they potentially have, but they are trying to figure out how exactly he would fit. Because it’s a little bit of a "round peg-square hole," let alone from the player development, and they know the better part of that. I know that when we talked to Matheny on Sunday, he just didn’t even want to entertain the topic, where he basically said, ‘Look, we’ve got plenty of guys here.’ He was very specific about, in his eyes, he doesn’t want anyone to think of Oscar as being like the silver bullet—the guy that’s going to solve all the problems. He didn’t think that was fair to his own players or to Oscar.
VEB: As an insider, how do you view the Cardinals young pitchers?
Olney: Well, it’s very rare that you see such a talented group come up together. They actually remind you a little bit of the Braves guys in the early 90’s. You talk to the scouts, who know a lot more than I would, and they all talk about Michael Wacha with awe, and they talk about Trevor Rosenthal with awe. You talk to hitters with other teams, and they just have so much respect for what the Cardinals have, and the fact that all of these guys are basically at the outset of their careers is pretty impressive. You still have Adam Wainwright, of course, who is right in the middle of it. To me, when you look at [the team’s] issues right now, with their offense and questions about whether or not some of their defensive parts all fit together, the bottom line is I picked them to win the World Series before the year started, and I still stick with that. At some point, the unbelievable talent that they have in their pitching staff is going to manifest itself.
VEB: With reports [yesterday] of Joe Kelly likely being out until at least June, what do you think the Cardinals should do? Should they stick with Tyler Lyons like they have been? Or do you see them possibly inserting Carlos Martinez into that slot?
Olney: Well, without having had a chance to talk to Mike or Mo yet, I tend to believe that they probably, rather than take the time to extend Martinez, would prefer to keep their eighth inning weapon. During the course of Spring Training, when they were going through the competition, I think they were doing that out of respect for Martinez, and if at some point they had a gaping hole in their rotation, then they would look at [Martinez]. But it’s pretty rare, and we saw this to a degree with the Yankees with some of their guys. I think that [the team’s] general preference is to keep the back end of the bullpen stronger. [Martinez] is certainly a big part of that. Typically, I think you see more and more teams now doing that. They value that eighth inning guy.
VEB: What’s your take on the whole Kolten Wong situation?
Olney: Well, he’s clearly part of what they project to be their future. I think it is just sort of like a tune-up. They just want him to get back. We talked to Mike about it the other day, and he was pretty clear they just want him to sort of settle on some specific things that they had in mind. And they’ve got to make sure that with the amount of money they have invested in Ellis, it’s not like they just want to bury him early in the year. I think he’s actually probably benefited from the playing time.
There was a comparable situation with Wong in Wacha last year. You know, he got a taste and then you sent him back down. You put them with a mission statement, and then they come back up. I know that when I talked with scouts of other teams during Spring Training, they really like Wong, and they see him being a really good player going forward. And [the Cardinals] are going to need it because I think the one thing that has been sort of illuminated early in the year is it’s not a dynamic offense. It’s an offense that is built on its parts, rather than having a couple big bashers in the middle, and I think he’s going to have to be an important part of that, especially since they don’t have a lot of team speed.
VEB: Thirty-five games into the Cardinals season, what are your thoughts on the current state of the National League Central? Are the Brewers a surprise to you?
Olney: I don’t think anybody could say anything other than they’re a surprise with how well they’ve played early. I think eventually they’ll probably come back to the pack. The one thing that has been borne out is that there are no real runaway teams right now [in any division across the majors]. Every team’s got a major issue, so I do think the Cardinals’ concerns are real. I was talking with a scout the other day, and he said Allen Craig right now looks like he’s really hitting mostly with his upper half. He’s not really using his legs the way he did in the past. I talked to Allen the other day about whether or not there was any lingering effect from his leg injury last year, and whether or not that was affecting his base. He said no, he felt completely healthy. As Spring Training started, it was just a question of getting his timing off, but that’s a big issue for [the Cardinals]. They need to get him right, especially because so much is predicated on him being an important part of that lineup.
When you look at the Reds, I think they’re going to struggle all year offensively without Choo and as they try to integrate Billy Hamilton into their everyday lineup, and try to get somebody else like Todd Frazier to be a thumper in the middle, especially with Jay Bruce being down. Pirates are clearly struggling offensively. Maybe Gregory Polanco will help them with that. Pretty much, up and down the division, when you look at the teams, it feels like everybody’s got issues, and that’s why it was interesting. The other day I was talking to Matt Carpenter and the other guys around the cage, and the Cardinals still feel really confident they’re going to be able to figure it out: A) because of their history and B) they do have, when you look across the board at the rosters, more talent than anyone in the division.
VEB: What are your thoughts on Matheny’s proclivity to use a different lineup seemingly every game so far this season?
Olney: It’s interesting. I think it’s warranted because it really is a lineup that hasn’t functioned so well this year. We were talking to him on Sunday about how these guys are handling things, and I mentioned that we had talked to the guys, and there seemed to be a level of confidence they’ll be able to figure it out. But, he also acknowledged that there’s some frustration building, and he mentioned that you have a lot of guys who are professionals that expect a lot out of themselves. He said they’ve been coming back to the dugout and lighting it up in the runway, out of sight of the cameras. They are pretty upset, and the phrase he used was, "We’ve got a lot of guys on edge right now" because of the fact that they haven’t performed as well.
The players understand that he is looking for solutions, and the thing about the Cardinals’ culture, to me, is always been those guys get it, in terms of they’re just trying to find a way to win. They trust each other, and they trust Matheny. It’s not as if he’s coming up with big radical solutions or trying radical things that none of them can understand. They’re not going into the year thinking they’re going to bat Molina second, but boy, they’re looking for any sort of traction on their offense, so they get it. I agree with it. I think it’s important that he does try different things because stuff that he’s used so far compared to last year hasn’t worked.
VEB: What are your overall thoughts on the NL Central managers? Who would you consider the "best"?
Olney: To be honest, I think each guy brings a different strength. It’s funny, too, because they’re all sort of in different parts of their careers, such different places. You have Bryan Price and [Rick] Renteria starting out right now. I think Roenicke is really good, but he just hasn’t had teams like the other guys have had. I think Matheny is a nice fit, in part, because those guys all work so well together. I think he and Mo work really well together. It’s just one of those things that I think it’s hard to compare because there’s so much apples and oranges between the managers. It’s funny you say that because I was actually thinking about writing a column for tomorrow on the best managers of all time. That’s actually easier to compare in 2014 because so much of what the managers do these days comes down from the front office.
Final Notes:
The Pirates last hosted Sunday Night Baseball on July 28, 1996 (18 seasons ago) against the Phillies at Three Rivers Stadium. Thus, Sunday night's game will be the first one at PNC Park. Buster will be working the game with Dan Shulman and John Kruk. You can find Buster on Twitter: @Buster_ESPN and on ESPN: Buster Olney Blog.
I am very thankful for the time Buster took in talking with me. I thoroughly enjoyed my experience and wish him continued success.
Today's lessons include international signings, expectations for the Brewers, and more.
Yesterday's Results
The Brewers had the day off.
The Brewers are expected to exceed their international signing bonus pool.
Back in February, the Brewers were rumored to sign international free agent Yirver Gilbert Lara. It was months before the international signing period began, so the announcement came as a bit of a surprise. However, the bigger surprise was the amount: $3.2 million. This is $600,000 above the expected pool available for the Brewers. Yesterday, Noah noted that the Brewers are one of four teams expected to exceed their allotted amount. It's a bold move by the Brewers if they pull the trigger on this, but one that could really help their system out. Of course, it could be six or seven years before we know if the move pays off for them.
Expectations are taking a hit after a few series losses.
Have your expectations changed after the Reds and Diamondbacks games? It's hard to not be a little discouraged after those series, but it's only 7 games out of 162. Derek posted a poll yesterday to gauge where the expectations are at this point in the season. The majority of people so far have not reduced their expectations, which is a good sign. Hopefully the Brewers will turn things around and expectations will go back up.
Cardinals @ Pirates Friday: Michael Wacha vs. Francisco Liriano - 6:05 pm Saturday: Lance Lynn vs. Edinson Volquez - 6:05 pm Sunday: Shelby Miller vs. Charlie Morton - 7:05 pm
Rockies @ Reds Friday: Jhoulys Chacin vs. Johnny Cueto - 6:10 pm Saturday: Jordan Lyles vs. Alfredo Simon - 6:10 pm Sunday: TBD vs. Homer Bailey - 12:10 pm
Cubs @ Braves Friday: Jason Hammel vs. Julio Teheran - 6:35 pm Saturday: Jeff Samardzija vs. Ervin Santana - 6:10 pm Sunday: Edwin Jackson vs. Alex Wood - 12:35 pm
In our latest look back at 1999, Robin Ventura collects two grand salamis and the Mets pull off a dramatic ninth inning comeback.
After an exhausting road trip that bruised an already damaged pitching staff, the Mets returned to Shea on May 17 for a seven-game homestand. The hope was they could get back on track against their first opponent, the thoroughly mediocre Brewers, but Milwaukee doused those hopes by putting up a fight for most of their four games in Queens.
First, the Brew Crew roughed up Bobby Jones in the opener, hanging seven runs on his ledger in 5 2/3 innings, despite Jones having received an extra day of rest in deference to an as-yet undiagnosed ailment. The Mets made a comeback bid, but the game ended in a 7-6 defeat on a called third strike to Allensworth, a borderline (at best) pitch that sent Bobby Valentine into a postgame rant about the home plate umpire's "inconsistent" strike zone. "This was a zone where balls off the plate were called strikes sometimes," he grumbled to the press. "They were getting ‘em. What did we have, five called strikes?"
The next night, Rick Reed turned in his best outing of the year, limiting Milwaukee to one run over seven innings. He pitched so well, in fact, that Brewers manager Phil Garner demanded the umps examine his glove for foreign substances. "If the guy thinks I’m cheating," Reed growled after the game, "he’s getting the wrong stats because I had a seven-and-a-fucking-half ERA coming in." However, the umpires did not accede to every managerial request. In the bottom of the eighth inning, the arbiters refused to consider Bobby Valentine's pleas that a Mets runner was interfered with during a rundown play, and also refused to honor Valentine's wishes to play the game under protest due to their refusal of his first demand.
An incensed Valentine was ejected, though he may have been less angry with the umps than with what happened in the top of the eighth, when Armando Benitez allowed a three-run homer to Marquis Grissom that transformed a slim 2-1 lead into an eventual 4-2 loss.
A rainout necessitated a day-night double header on May 20, which also allowed Robin Ventura to attain a curious baseball milestone. He hit a grand slam in each half of the twinbill, making him the first player in MLB history to do so. In his years with the White Sox, Ventura had an uncanny knack for hitting homers with the bases juiced. These marked the first instances of him doing so in a Mets uniform.
Other than Ventura's blasts, however, neither game was all that pretty to watch. In the first contest, the Mets jumped out to an early lead on the strength of Ventura's first grand slam off of Jim Abbott, only to see Al Leiter cough up that advantage and then some. Two homers by Benny Agbayani and Mike Piazza gave the Mets a seemingly comfortable 11-6 lead, but the bullpen made things very uncomfortable when reliever Allen Watson served up a three-run homer to Jeff Cirillo.
John Franco came on the for the save in the ninth and nearly blew it by putting the tying runs on base. With victory one out away, a rare error by Edgardo Alfonzo compounded Franco's failures. Fonzie's miscue allowed one run to score, and the tying run would have come home as well, if only Mets farmhand Alex Ochoa hadn't lost a cleat on the basepaths. Ambling toward the plate half-shoeless, Ochoa could not slide and was tagged out standing up at home, bringing the 11-10 win to a suitably ugly end. In the nightcap, Ventura's second grand slam of the day capped a six-run fourth inning, and the Mets cruised to a 10-1 victory.
The Phillies came to town next, and the Mets took the first game, 7-5, as John Olerud finished a triple short of the cycle, Mike Piazza homered yet again, and the bullpen fought off a late charge. The bats were silent the next day, however, quieted by former Met Paul Byrd in a damaging 9-3 loss that saw Bobby Jones leave the game early (he finally admitted to suffering from shoulder fatigue) and Benny Agbayani get carted off the field after smashing his knee against a retaining wall.
The series finale on Sunday, May 23 was preceded by a two-hour rain delay. The Mets continued to rest once it began, as they could do nothing against Philly's ace, Curt Schilling. The New York papers were filled with glowing profiles of Schilling, praising him for pitching deep into games and for pressuring his miserly team to spend on free agents, lest he demand a trade him to a team that would. Despite the fact that Schilling's pitching was one of the biggest reason the Phillies were a surprise contender early in the season, it was assumed a trade was almost certain to happen, due to Schilling's high value, large contract, and inability to keep his mouth shut.
Schilling held a 4-0 lead going into the bottom of the ninth and clearly had his eye on the finish line. But suddenly the Mets awoke, starting their rally with a two-run Ventura homer to cut the deficit in half. One out later, Matt Franco singled, Luis Lopez was hit by a pitch, and Jermaine Allensworth hit an RBI single to bring the Mets within a run. There was no hint of action in the Philly bullpen, however. "Regardless of who was available, that was his game," manager Terry Francona said later, with a clear aim of blaming what transpired solely on his pitcher.
The righty nearly wriggled off the hook by getting Roger Cedeño to hit a grounder to short, but the speedy runner beat the relay throw to first, and Cedeño promptly stole second without a throw. Schilling went right after the next batter, Edgardo Alfonzo, and backed him into an 1-2 hole, only to hit him with a pitch and load the bases. His very next pitch was belted into left field by John Olerud. Lopez scored easily, and Cedeño came charging right behind him. The throw to the plate was late by just a hair, handing the Mets an improbable 5-4 walkoff win against one of the best pitchers in the game.
"We sit around for an hour," Valentine later opined in the hopped up clubhouse, "and some people started saying: ‘Should we even play this game? We should issue an executive edict and miss Schilling, and maybe he’ll be in the American League the next time we meet them’. There was a lot of that going around. And if we didn’t win that game, there would have been a lot of second guessing."
On the subject of second guessing, Valentine needn't worry. There would be plenty to go around very soon.
