A mini epic, created by us - because sometimes, we are clever... and also I am lazy.

The Cardinals and the Shortstop: A never ending courtship

... Also known as the boyfriend of five years that you should have dumped after 12 months. He has a great personality, so you convince yourself that the relationship is actually going somewhere, but its going on four years and you start to wonder what you saw in him to begin with. Yeah, you went to some awesome concerts together, took many memorable road trips and have tons of great memories, but you realize it wasn't actually him that made the concerts fun or the trips interesting.

Bitterly, you remember the chance you had with Jurickson Profar, but you blew it because you couldn't work out the long distance relationship. And now he is dating some lawyer that looks just like you. You had a chance at a one night stand with J.J. Hardy, but you don't just put out Shelby Miller unless you know he is the one. You even feigned interest in José Reyes, but everyone knew he wasn't really available, and besides, all his exes said he was abusive. So you start seeing Jhonny Peralta on the side - he is rich and successful, but deep down you know he has a history with drugs and he just isn't a long term solution. You wonder if that cute guy from Colorado is still available. He isn't reliable and he skips out for a month or two at a time, but Troy Tulowitzki just seems to be the complete package - he is talented, witty, and knows his way around the bases. But he is too perfect. There is no way someone like you could get with a shortstop like that. Not even dangling Shelby Miller could seduce Tulo away from that control freak, the Rockies. So you ogle him from afar, wonder what could have been and think about how much better you would treat him and how cute you would look together.

"Will I ever find 'The One'? Do I even deserve him?" you ask as you watch Daniel Descalso on the field after a double switch, the ball slowly rolling past his outstretched glove to score a run, "Maybe I should keep playing the field."

Written with the combined efforts of guayzimi, YesWeOquendo, pattimagee, azta, and cschpers. - Viva el Birdos

What Else Is Going On in Baseball...

• A pitcher and his shortstop. Basically, finding a good shortstop is hard, so when you do find one, you hold on tight, man. You don't let him slip away. - SB Nation
• Things are getting serious. Albert Pujols is six home runs shy of 500 and might challenge the record. - Sports on Earth; MLB
• This is a very well done and interesting article about the many type of baseball fans. (Thanks to flood for sending me this!) - Bless You Boys
• Here is an article about some video game you silly boys keep talking about... - Sports on Earth; SB Nation
• The new replay system has upheld around 60% of the calls, which is technically an F for a student, Umpires, just saying. - Beyond the Box Score
• Bud Selig called Hank Aaron the "Home Run King", whatever that even means anymore. - Hardball Talk; McCovey Chronicles
• Vin Scully. Hank Aaron. Broken Records. Beauty. Majesty. Grace. - Cut4
• The Big Hurt smells a big conspiracy. - Hardball Talk
• Fangraphs looks at how pitching tools translate to the majors. No .gifs, unfortunately. - Fangraphs
• This is just one of my favorite baseball moments ever. Sorry. It isn't really relevent to anything - Cut4

What the Cardinals Are Up To...

• Quick, guess who is the Cardinals active leader in stolen bases? Hint: He is also the active leader in thrown out base stealers. "To overtake Brock he will have to maintain his current pace for the next 170 seasons", is probably may favorite line of the whole article. - Sports on Earth
• Out of all active players, who has the most stolen bases with the Cardinals? (May need to scroll down to find the question and answer) - MLB Trivia
• Here is a look at the Cardinals top 20 prospects for 2014. - Minor League Ball
• Matt Carpenter leads the league with 54 called strikes against him, which may be something to keep an eye on during the year. - Baseball Savant
• Cards Conclave is asking for some feedback. You could win a Game 6 BluRay/DVD combo pack for your troubles. - Cards Conclave

KNOW THINE ENEMY...

The NL Central

• WE GET IT! Billy Hamilton is fast. - Cut4; SB Nation
• Uhg. It is really difficult not to like Joey Votto. - Cut4
• Jonathan Lucroy is one of those sneaky good players that you tend to forget about. (Thanks, flood!) - Peter Gammons
• The Brewers made their own video to Pharrell's song "Happy". At first I thought it was going to be stupid, but I'll be darned if I wasn't smiling when they showed that adorable dog. Also relevant: What ever happened to the awesome Cardinals commercials?! - Hardball Talk
• Standings:
  

Thom Brenneman

• Did you notice Thom Brennaman did the broadcasting for Tuesday's game? - Cards Diaspora

The Chicago Cubs (Arpil 11, 12, 13)

• The Cubs dropped two of three in their opening series with the Phillies. One fan captures his experience in pictures. - Bleed Cubbie Blue
• By Gosh previews the upcoming series against the Cubbies. - MLB
• Fink has finally published his preview so I can link to it. - Viva el Birdos
• For a more in depth look at our inner-division rivals, visit their SB Nation blog. - Bleed Cubbie Blue

Viva el Stuff...

• creepyholliday write about why he or she thinks Yadier Molina is one of the greatest catchers in the game today. - Viva el Birdos
• stlfan went on a little scouting trip to a local highschool and recounts his adventures in this fanpost. - Viva el Birdos
• dr. howl profiles Matt Holliday in 2014 in his series looking at the projections for this year's roster. - Viva el Birdos
• There is still time to enter the prediction contest and win a super cool 2011 World Series Game 6 BluRay/DVD combo set graciously given to us by A & E Home Video. - Viva el Birdos
• Don't forget about Viva el Run! - Viva el Birdos
• Also don't forget about VEB day and to pay fink for buying your ticket you silly, forgetful, girl... uh... e-mail fink at the address in his profile for instructions on how to pay him, preferably via PayPal. - Viva el Birdos
• Need to know what happened on last week's episode of VEB? Check of B. Humph's Week in Review. - Viva el Birdos
• Missed Monday's links? Now is your chance! - Viva el Birdos

Other Things...

• Oh dear, the Blues... Check out their SB Nation site for more information (most likely profanity riddled, based on the past few weeks) on what they are up to. I can't do it. - St. Louis Game Time
• spants has alerted me to the fact that the new Veronica Mars book is an audiobook... and Kristin Bell is the narrator... and she does all the voices! - Entertainment Weekly

Weekend Scoreboard:

Tonight the Cardinals take on the rival Cubs at Busch at 7:15pm. The start tonight will feature some you arms as the Cardinals' "Machine Gun/Bazooka/Dancin'/Googles/Deadfish Handshakin'/Houdini" Joe Kelly with square up against Jeff Samajkdfjoa, Notre Dame alumnus, of the Cubs. The game will be broadcast on televsion on Fox Sports Midwest and CSN in Chicago and on the radio on KMOX 1120 and WGN 720.

Remember, you can send me links and such via Twitter, @lil_scooter93 and at my e-mail, lil_scooter93@msn.com!

The Brewers have had an impressive winning streak this April. They also had one last April, though the rest of the year did not fare so well.

The Brewers won their sixth game in a row last night when they topped the Phillies 6-2 to complete a sweep. That made me curious: How long had it been since the Brewers last had a 6 game win streak? The answer was not exactly what I had hoped.

The Brewers won nine games in a row last April. It started with a win against the Cardinals in the third game of their series, then continued with sweeps of the Giants and Cubs and finished with the team taking the first two games of a series against the Padres. So, a big winning streak, in April, involving a sweep of the reigning World Series champions. Sounds familiar. The disappointing part: The Brewers finished last year 74-88.

But, hey, two winning streaks are not created equal. Last year's and this year's have their differences. The biggest of those may be the location. The Brewers went on the road to Fenway and Citizens Bank, two intimidating ballparks for different reasons. Last year, six of the team's nine wins were enjoyed in the friendly confines of Miller Park. To go on the road and take two sweeps is more impressive.

The other difference is the quality of the opponents. The Phillies this year are a little similar to the Brewers in that they are a team that expects to make a playoff push, though few analysts saw them as having much of a chance. They are still a pretty good team, though. The Brewers got a bit lucky that Cole Hamels and A.J. Burnett were not available for this series, and Chase Utley missed the first two games with the flu. But Milwaukee did beat Cliff Lee and the rest of the Phillies are certainly better than the Cubs were last year.

Similarly, the Red Sox are a better reigning World Series champ than the Giants were last season. Last year, the Giants had one good pitcher in Madison Bumgarner to go with a mediocre offense. That led to an 86-loss season. The Red Sox won't lose 86 games this year. It's possible they may lose a little bit from last year, but they are still a top contender for the playoffs this season.

Of course, it's not just the quality of the opponents: The Brewers are a much-improved team from 2013. Last year, the Brewers were starting Yuniesky Betancourt and Alex Gonzalez at the same time! No Aramis Ramirez, who was hurt during their streak. And, sure, Yuni was going through a bit of a hot stretch at the time, but that's matched by Mark Reynolds this year. You still have a drop from a healthy A-Ram to Gonzalez. I'll also take Khris Davis over Norichika Aoki (as would the Brewers, judging by their moves in the offseason).

The pitching is better this year, as well. Last year it was Lohse-Gallardo-Peralta-Burgos-Estrada starting games during the streak (I forgot Hiram Burgos started a game last year, too). This year, Matt Garza takes the place of Burgos and Peralta has a year of experience and is looking much better.

Anyway, a six game or nine game streak is impressive, either way. But because I may have spoiled the mood a little bit last night, I figured I would take the opportunity to show why two mirroring streaks do not necessarily mean the Brewers will end up the same as last year.

Besides all that, comparing two winning streaks of less than 10 games doesn't really tell us much. The Brewers are a better team this year than last year and should finish with a better record. Just because a similar run happened last season doesn't mean the rest of the season will go the same way; that would be silly thinking. The Brewers are 7-2 and that's pretty awesome!

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• What we learned: April 11, 2014
• The Adventures of Stickman and Risk-Averse Ron Roenicke
• Brewers complete the road trip sweep! Beat the Phillies 6-2
• The Brewers have a problem at the top of their lineup.
• Kendrys Morales free agency: Brewers rumored to have interest in 1B

Thus far Tyler Thornburg has been truly impressive out of the bullpen. It's led to some discussion about how best to utilize his skills, though it's possible they're already doing the right thing with him.

Last night on the broadcast Brian Anderson and Bill Schroeder suggested that Tyler Thornburg, and in turn the Brewers, might be a "victim of his own success." By that they meant that he’s pitching so well the team is going to have to stop using him as the long man and start using him in high leverage situations, leaving the team without said long man. This struck me as both monumentally stupid and incorrect.

Don’t get me wrong, I think Thornburg can handle high leverage situations, but why should they stop using him as their long reliever? The reasoning behind this is because he’s actually pretty good. Let’s let this sink in for a moment...They’re essentially saying they should use him less because he is effective. The problem is that might actually be the eventual outcome. Ron Roenicke was quoted as saying this about Thornburg, "I don’t know, maybe he wants another job. Maybe he wants to close or something." To be fair it was made clear that he was joking when he said that.

However I feel like there is some truth we can glean from his joke as itt gives us some idea of how Roenicke thinks about relievers. If he views Thornburg as a high-leverage guy, I’m worried he’ll stop using him for multiple innings. He’s shown a proclivity towards giving guys defined roles. You have your closer, your set-up man, and your 7th inning guy. For years now the sabermetric community has decried this model. You should use your best relievers when the situation calls for it. If that happens to be the 5th inning, then so be it.

If Roenicke does decide that Thornburg should be his 7th or 8th inning guy that’s a bad thing but it’s not because it leaves them without multi-inning relievers. In fact, I would say multi-inning relievers are the unique strength of the Brewers bullpen. Including Thornburg, the Brewers have at least 3 relievers that have shown an ability to go multiple innings. The other two I’m talking about are Will Smith and Brandon Kintzler. Last year, Smith got 5+ outs in 8 relief appearances. Kintzler made 15 relief appearances getting 4+ outs, including 5 outings where he went 2 innings and one where he pitched 3. That same year Tom Gorzelanny made 8 multi-inning relief appearances, in addition to starting, so when he returns from the DL it’s possible we can slot him back in the mix as well. If they do stop using Thornburg as their long man they shouldn’t have an issue covering innings, but that still wouldn’t excuse the choice.

It would still be a bad decision because Thornburg can effectively pitch multiple innings, so limiting him to one at a time is limiting his usefulness. It’s also kind of dumb because Francisco Rodriquez, Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and Will Smith can also handle high leverage situations. Yeah, some of them are more reliable than others and maybe Thornburg is a better option than one or more of them, but the point is it’s not exactly necessary that he be relegated to the late game. Roenicke hasn’t stated that he plans to change the way he uses Thornburg yet so for right now this is all hypothetical. It’s something to keep an eye on going forward though.

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Brewers April win streaks: 2013 vs 2014
• What we learned: April 11, 2014
• The Adventures of Stickman and Risk-Averse Ron Roenicke
• Brewers complete the road trip sweep! Beat the Phillies 6-2
• Brewers vs Phillies lineups: Rickie Weeks starting at second base

Wily Peralta's seven strong innings keep Pirates in check, and two home runs lead the Brewers offense as they win their seventh straight game.

WP: Wily Peralta (1-0)
LP: Francisco Liriano (0-2)
SV: Francisco Rodriguez (3)

HR: Aramis Ramirez (1), Mark Reynolds (3), Neil Walker (2)

Box Score

The Brewers came back to Milwaukee tonight, and they brought some of their good offense with them.

As the game started, it looked like it would be a pitcher's duel.  Through three innings, Francisco Liriano had not allowed a Brewer to reach base, and Wily Peralta had allowed a total of two hits and two walks.  In the bottom of the fourth, Carlos Gomez broke the streak with a walk, then Aramis Ramirez hit his first home run of the season to put the Brewers on the board with a 2-0 lead.  The Brewers would score another two runs in the fifth inning thanks to a solo home run from Mark Reynolds and an RBI single from Carlos Gomez.

Wily Peralta bounced back from a tough first start to shut down the Pirates for most of the game.  He kept the Pirates off the board for the first six innings, but ended up allowing a two-run home run following a throwing error by Ramirez in the seventh inning to account for the Pirates only runs in the game.  Peralta would finish the seventh inning and end the game with four hits allowed, two runs (only one earned), two walks, and four strikeouts

Meanwhile, for the Pirates, Francisco Liriano started well with his three full perfect innings, but then fell apart.  Over the last three innings, he allowed four runs and two walks, leading to four runs scored by the Brewers.  He did have six strikeouts in the game, but only two in his last three innings.

The bullpen took over in the eighth inning and continued their dominance.  Jim Henderson pitched the eighth and pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout.  Francisco Rodriguez closed the game in the ninth, striking out the side for his third save.

The series continues tomorrow as the Brewers try for their eighth straight win.  Yovani Gallardo makes his third start of the season for the Brewers, and Edinson Volquez will oppose for the Pirates.  First pitch is at 6:10 pm.

The Brewers reliever has a minor trapezius strain.

As tonight's game against the Pirates approaches,  the Brewers are considering making a DL move due to a minor injury.  Tom Haudricourt reports that reliever Brandon Kintzler has a minor trapezius strain, and will likely be placed on the 15-day DL.  As of right now, the move is not official, but indications are that the move will happen.

As good as the bullpen has been, the depth is a bit thin right now.  The Brewers have been essentially working with a six-man bullpen since they do not want to pitch Wei-Chung Wang until the "right" situation comes up.  Any injury in the bullpen will stretch the depth even further, and anything longer than a few days will need someone to be called up for extra depth.

Check out Brew Crew Ball for any updates to the situation.  We will provide updates if/when Kintzler goes on the DL, as well as who they decide to call up from Nashville.

More from Brew Crew Ball

Follow @BrewCrewBallFollow @SBNationMLB

• Seven strong innings from Wily Peralta lead Brewers to their seventh straight win, beat Pirates 4-2
• Jonathan Lucroy catching Wily Peralta on Friday
• Tyler Thornburg: Bullpen Ace
• Brewers April win streaks: 2013 vs 2014
• The Adventures of Stickman and Risk-Averse Ron Roenicke

The Brewers have been relying on the same few bullpen arms in recent days. How does that affect their bullpen?

After yesterday's game, Brandon Kintzler was officially placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to the 9th with a mild rotator cuff strain. To fill the spot left on the roster, Rob Wooten was recalled from Nashville. While this will help the team keep some depth in the short term, they do face another issue when looking at the bullpen overall. This bullpen is on the verge of being overworked.

Let's look at how often the bullpen has pitched in the last week (first number innings pitched, second pitches thrown):

Here's the first issue I see on the table above: Brandon Kintzler hasn't pitched since April 9th. Normally, that wouldn't be a big issue for a bullpen to be a man down, but it's magnified for the Brewers. With their refusal to put Wei-Chung Wang into a game, they have been working with a five-man bullpen over the last week. Also, with Zach Duke mainly limited to LOOGY duties, that's another reliever the bullpen can't use all the time. Because of that, it's like the bullpen has been pitching with four relievers over the last four days, with a fifth that can come in from time to time.

This has led to a second problem in the bullpen, and that is overuse of certain relievers. Francisco Rodriguez has pitched in three straight games, so he's probably out for today's game. Jim Henderson has pitched four of the last five days, so the Brewers probably want to stay away from him as well. Tyler Thornburg has pitched in three of the last four, but had a multi-inning appearance in one of those games, so he probably needs rest as well. That's the bullpen's best three relievers there, all needing rest today.

Third, if you're hoping for a day off, there's still a lot of games to play before then. The Brewers next day off as a team is April 24th, which is also the day Brandon Kintzler is eligible to come off the DL. That's eleven more days in a row that the Brewers will have to play. The only hope for a day off before the 24th is for a Brewers starter to pitch a complete game.

There is some good news for the bullpen. Since the starting pitchers haven't had a bad day yet, the team hasn't needed to cover multiple innings. That has saved the bullpen from being completely overworked. Also, there are a few relievers who have been rested. Will Smith hasn't pitched in two days so he should be good to go. Zach Duke has thrown a total of two pitches in the last four days, so while it's not ideal, he could cover an inning if necessary. Plus, callup Rob Wooten hasn't pitched in four days, so he is coming in fresh. There's also Wei-Chung Wang, and as much as the Brewers are trying to avoid using him, they may reach a point where they don't have a choice.

Going into today's game, the best scenario for the bullpen is for Kyle Lohse to have a good start and pitch six or seven innings. The bullpen should be able to cover two or three innings today without a problem. However, if Kyle Lohse has a bad start or comes out early for another reason, this could be a bad day for the bullpen.

Today's lessons include the winning streak, the bullpen situation, and the role of Tyler Thornburg.

This Weekend's Results

Brewers 4, Pirates 2

It was win #7 in a row for the Brewers. The first three innings turned into a pitcher's duel between the two starters, with Francisco Liriano pitching three perfect innings and Wily Peralta allowing a total of two walks through three. In the fourth inning, Aramis Ramirez got the scoring going with a two-run home run. They would tack on two more runs in the fifth inning, and Wily Peralta pitched seven innings allowing two runs.

Brewers 3, Pirates 2

Carlos Gomez led off the offense for the Brewers with a home run, and the Brewers got another run in the second inning from a wild pitch. The Pirates would tie it in the third with two more runs before the Brewers scored their winning run on an RBI single from Jonathan Lucroy in the eighth inning. Francisco Rodriguez pitched a scoreless ninth to lock down the eighth straight win.

Brewers 4, Pirates 1

It was Kyle Lohse's best start of his Brewers career. He pitched 8⅔ innings, allowing a total of one run on four hits and nine strikeouts. It was more than enough for the Brewers. They scored a run on a sacrifice fly in the third inning, then a second run from a RBI single from Aramis Ramirez. The last two runs came on a strange play. With runners at second and third, Scooter Gennett struck out on a ball that was not caught by catcher Tony Sanchez, and when he tried to secure it at first base, he threw it into right field, allowing both runners to score and Scooter Gennett to get to third base. Will Smith pitched the last ⅓ inning to secure the Brewers ninth win in a row.

This year's winning streak is more impressive than last year's winning streak.

In the excitement of this year's winning streak, it can be easy to forget that the Brewers did the same thing last April. Which one was better of the two? Noah argues that this year's winning streak is more impressive than last year's winning streak, even before it got to nine games. There are various reasons for this (opponent quality, winning margin, etc.), and it's adding up to a big winning streak to start the year. Regression is coming at some point, but for now, we can just enjoy the ride.

Brandon Kintzler headed to the DL and the bullpen got a bit of a shake-up.

After the winning streak, the biggest news of the weekend was an injury. After Saturday's game, the Brewers placed Brandon Kintzler on the DL with a mild rotator cuff injury. It shouldn't require more than a minimum DL stint, and the Brewers recalled Rob Wooten to fill the vacated spot. The bullpen hasn't had to pitch too much yet, but due to some decisions & roles in the bullpen, some relievers had been used more than others. Before yesterday's game, a few relievers had been overworked and needed some rest. They got the rest they needed thanks to a complete game yesterday, but it could be something to watch for a while.

Tyler Thornburg's success should not limit his role.

Tyler Thornburg has been one of the surprises in the Brewers bullpen this year. He has pitched in some big situations and provided critical outs. However, should this success limit when he can be used? Derek argues that even though Thornburg can handle high-leverage situations, it shouldn't stop him from being used as a long reliever. There's nothing wrong with using him for an inning at a time, but that shouldn't stop him from being used multiple innings. Keeping that flexibility could be important, and not being willing to change it can hurt the team. Let's hope that the Brewers are willing to use Thornburg as they should.

Cram Session

The Winning Streak

• The Brewers have to overcome a lot to put together a great season, and so far it's going in their favor. Andrew Prochnow of Bleacher Report talks about all of the obstacles the Brewers have to overcome this season, and how they have overcome those problems.
• While the early results for the Brewers may regress at some point, there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report has some reasons for why the Brewers should be considered contenders now.
• Michael Hunt has an opinion piece on JSOnline about how it's time to start believing in the Brewers. It ends up focusing more on the superstitions that baseball players follow.
• Richard Justice of MLB.com looks at the winning streak and how the pitching has led the Brewers during this winning streak.
• The payroll has a mix of pre-arbitration and free-agent multi-millionaires this season. Tom Haudricourt spoke to Kyle Lohse about the mix on the payroll and how it all contributes to the team.
• Carlos Gomez has thrived in the leadoff spot, and Todd Rosiak has a story about how that change has helped the team.

Brewers Bullpen

• Has the bullpen been overused? Nathan Petrashek of Cream City Cables argues that the usage has been right on track so far this season.
• Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has the strange story on Francisco Rodriguez going from the bad luck of stepping on a cactus barefoot to being the Brewers closer to start the season.
• JR Radcliffe talks about how Francisco Rodriguez has locked down the closer role despite not starting the season there.

First Base

• Mark Reynolds has had some good defense at first base so far. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has a story on how Reynolds has been an asset at first base.
• First base has been a position with a lot of turnover for the Brewers. Jay D of Reviewing the Brew has a breakdown of the current state of the position in the minor leagues.
• Meanwhile, on Miller Park Prospects, Sam Peterson focuses in on Jason Rogers, who had been a first base prospect gaining steam in the minors but is moving to third base this year.

TV Broadcasts

• One of the most annoying parts of TV broadcasts are the blackouts that don't make sense. Jeff Pasaan talks about how the policy is hurting MLB, and also has some notes from MLB (including a few on the Brewers).
• On Friday night, FS Wisconsin aired a special on baseball in the Dominican Republic featuring Jean Segura. Enrique Bakemeyer of The Brewers Bar has some thoughts on the special.

Other Notes

• We've heard plenty about lineup card calligraphy, so here's a little more. Bill Baer of NBC Sports has some examples, with the Brewers taking both the best and worst spots.
• After the success of the night last year, the Brewers are holding another Zubaz night in 2014. John & Cait have the details on the event.
• The Brewers did more than sweep the Red Sox last weekend. In a trip to a restaurant, the Brewers encountered some firefighters from Milwaukee traveling to Boston, and Gina Barton of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has the story.
• Ron Roenicke has a new role as manager with the new replay system. JR Radcliffe has some notes on how Roenicke is adjusting to the role of "delaying the game" while the coaching staff decides if they should challenge a play.

Minor League Update

Division Update

• Fri: Cubs 6, Cardinals 3
  Sat: Cardinals 10, Cubs 4
  Sun: Cardinals 6, Cubs 4
• Fri: Rays 2, Reds 1
  Sat: Rays 1, Reds 0
  Sun: Reds 12, Rays 4

Today's Games

• Pirates (Wandy Rodriguez) @ Reds (Homer Bailey) - 6:10 pm
• Cubs have the day off.

Today's Action

The Brewers start their first series of the year against the Cardinals today. Matt Garza starts for the Brewers, and Lance Lynn will start for the Cardinals. First pitch is at 7:10 pm, and Matt Slovin of MLB.com has the preview.

Two weeks full of reminders that the things your brain tells you is true is sometimes super true.

Confirmation bias - "a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way." (Wikipedia)

That's right - we're back in 2014 for more advanced analytical analysis in the realm of confirmation bias, the brain's way of completely bypassing advanced analytical analysis. Paradox! This year, each study will be done every other week, because "fortnight" is a tragically underused, beautiful word. And the whole quality versus quantity thing, you know?*

* As I write this, I realize almost everything written below is in reference to one night of action. Funny how that works.

Our last edition came after the Cardinals' dramatic yet absolutely predictable game 5 victory over the Pirates in the NLDS last October. We sour grape'd together in the wake of fate.

But it is 2014 now, and I'm sick of ragging on the Cardinals. That feels like a 2013 thing, and the rest of the league's fans seem to have caught on. The torch has been passed, and it's time for new endeavors. Like ragging on the Pirates. Or other old endeavors that the team we watch every day just won't let us forget.

This week we extoll the virtues of simply letting baseball happen, analyze Carlos Gomez' maniacal swinging, bask in the aura of Mike Stanton's forearms, and mourn the fall of yet another Brewers pitching prospect.

Maxim: Always let the game come to you.

This is kind of an odd expression in that it makes more sense the less you examine it. Personifying "game" leads to some strange abstract visualizations that can only lead to neural digressions that stray from the statement's intent. I've always interpreted it as "don't force anything." Just to keep from overthinking, tightening muscles, jumping at the baseball, etc.

On Saturday night the Brewers and Pirates provided a great case study for such a maxim in the late innings. In a tie game in the bottom of the 7th, the Brewers found themselves with runners on first and second with no outs and Scooter Gennett at the plate. Instead of allowing Gennett to approach the at-bat naturally against a possibly fatigued pitcher who just walked the previous batter, Gennett was ordered to lay a bunt down - even on 0-2 - to trade an out for moving the runners up a base. He did his job.

Tony Watson and his fresh arm got the next two batters in order to end the inning. The game was on its way, but the Brewers lost patience and tried to manufacture, or force, a run across. It didn't work.

In the top of the next frame the Pirates had a runner on 1st with one out and did not bunt. Even in a traditional sense it probably didn't make much sense with Travis Snider at the plate against Jim Henderson, but it's worth noting that instead of giving away an out, Snider swung away in a platoon advantage (like Gennett had) and singled to right, putting runners on the corners with one away. Then the Pirates tried to force it:

In the bottom of the frame, the Brewers forced nothing. They took the lead after three straight singles from Braun, Ramirez, and Lucroy. Roenicke remained a patient bystander, and accordingly, the game trotted warmly into their arms. Or something weird like that.

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

Maxim: Carlos Gomez always swings. At everything.

Todd Rosiak over at JSOnline.com posted a short piece on Carlos' hot start as the Brewers' leadoff hitter on Friday. He quotes Ron Roenicke, whose comments I feel are strikingly appropriate:

"I knew he was going to be aggressive. I probably didn't even know he was going to be this aggressive. Last night, first pitch he sees, Cliff Lee knows he's going to be swinging at the first pitch, throws a fastball over the plate and he hits a bullet to right field.

"I keep watching him and he keeps squaring up balls, and it's not that easy to do. First pitch it's not that easy, but he keeps hammering the ball. So he's probably even a little better and more aggressive than I thought he'd be."

Last season, Gomez swung at 52.3% of first pitches he saw. That was far and away the highest percentage in the majors among qualifiers:

Gomez is in surprisingly good company. Maybe he's on to something. His rate has spiked to an astonishing 55.4% to start the 2014 season (Aramis Ramirez is actually close behind at 53.8% - they are #1 and #2 in MLB). He has swung at the 3rd most total pitches he's seen (59.5%), and has swung at a league high 89.5% of the strikes he's seen. So yes, the data shows Carlos is still swinging a lot in certain situations. Even more than usual.

But he's actually managed to see more pitches per PA (3.57) than the likes of Prince Fielder (3.53), Albert Pujols (3.45), and Adrian Gonzalez (3.49), and is just a tick behind former Brewers' leadoff hitter Norichika Aoki (3.59). He's still in the bottom half of the league, but he's much higher on the list than I expected. Seems to me he's been swinging like crazy, but he's been doing it when he should be swinging like crazy. So far.

This makes the maxim seem a little ambiguous, which is no good. One isolated at-bat on Saturday night after a 4-pitch walk to Yovani Gallardo - the pitcher - returns the brain to its comfort zone:

That's better.

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

Maxim: Pitching to Mike Stanton never works.

We covered this one last June. The Brewers haven't had to deal with Mike Stanton yet, but other teams have. This past Saturday, the Phillies pitched to Mike Stanton. It didn't work.

The caption on the video says this traveled 470 feet. I think there may have been a mistake with the decimal point. But the Phillies had a three run lead and no one on base, so this doesn't hurt too badly. On paper. However, when he represents the tying run it's probably a good idea to not throw him a pitch like this one:

You know you've hit a ball hard when the third basemen ducks and the thing lands 20 rows back. A classic in-his-prime Rickie Weeks kind of home run. Before injuries and the inevitable death march of time stifled his legendary bat speed. If you look closely, you can see a spark of electricity jumping from Stanton's wrists.

More proof that energy cannot be created, only transferred.

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

Maxim: Brewers pitching prospects always crash and burn.

Usually this is a long process, highlighted by injuries or repeated attempts to suck talent out of someone that just doesn't exist. It is deflating and miserably depressing.

In Wily Peralta's case, it took a different form:

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

-------------------------------------------------------

If you have any maxims in mind, post in the comments and I'll add them to the master list. So I can selectively choose them when they become relevant - for further virtuous analysis.

Segura hasn't been hitting all that well in the first two weeks of the season. Is this just a product of the small sample size or an indication of a larger issue?

Coming into this season Jean Segura was somewhat of a mystery. We all knew about his early and late season splits from last year and it was justifiable to wonder which version we were going to get. If you had asked me a few weeks ago I would have confidently told you I expected him to be able to recreate his season slash line, just without the highs and lows. Unfortunately, thus far in this young season he has fallen short of even the most pessimistic expectations. It’s so very early in the season so it’s not nearly time to panic, however I've noticed something to worry about.

Except for the last game in Boston and the first two in Philly, Segura has not been hitting well at all it's only been 12 games so it's not his triple slash that I'm worried about. The thing that has me concerned is that after the second game of the season Segura has not hit a single fly ball. Somewhat related, outside of that three game stretch, he has only 1 line drive. This has resulted in an insanely high 78.8% ground ball rate and an insanely low 6.1% fly ball rate. His line drive rate is only slightly lower than last year. I wouldn’t expect those rates to continue and if Segura is to be effective again, he absolutely can't allow them to.

Take a look at Segura's zone profile on ground balls from last year here. Now take a look at his profile on flyballs here. You will notice that Segura hit a lot of ground balls in general. You'll also notice that nearly all of the fly balls came on pitches up in the zone. To put it another way, an insignificant number of the fly balls he hit were on low pitches. Now take a look at Segura's overall profile from this year here. Unsurprisingly, pitchers are pounding the bottom of the zone against Segura. This is why he's not hitting fly balls. To put it simply, pitchers have adjusted to Segura and he seemingly hasn't adjusted to them. Not yet anyway.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Segura did suffer some kind of injury or general soreness in his shoulder during spring training. He's also gotten banged up a bit in the first couple of weeks and it's certainly possible that this has had some kind of impact on his ability to hit. I think it's more likely to do with how pitcher are throwing to him. He really needs to figure out how to elevate those low pitches. Segura is fast, but his defense is only average to slightly above average. He doesn't draw walks so his OBP is very dependent on his batting average. I'm afraid he won't be terribly valuable if he can hit, but that's not to say he'll be worthless. As I mentioned earlier, it's terribly early in the season so let's hope we don't have to find out.

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• Extra hops: Gifs from Brewers sweep of the Pirates
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• What is the bullpen status entering today's game?

As we feared, the Brewers don't have an answer for the Cardinals

Win: Lance Lynn (3-0)
Loss: Matt Garza (0-2)

HR: Jhonny Peralta (3), John Jay (1)

Boxscore

Let's just go ahead and focus on the debut of Wei-Chung Wang and pretend the rest of the game didn't happen. Wang, who collected his first paycheck before he appeared in a game also had to watch Rob Wooten, who didn't make the team out of Spring Training, pitch an inning before he finally got a chance to take the mound.

He gave up a single, but hit 93 mph with his fastball and showcased a pretty 83 mph change against Tony Cruz. The change was the only one of his 13 pitches that wasn't a 4-seam fastball, according to Gameday.

As we all dreaded, the Cardinals brought an end to the win streak. John Jay's three-run home run in the top of the sixth inning was the dagger. It was the first time a Brewers starter had allowed three or more earned runs since mid-September. That streak had reached 26 games. Jay's homer marked the first time Milwaukee had been down by more than one since the top of the sixth in the second game of the season.

Lest you thought the feeling of doom when facing the Cardinals was somehow exaggerated, since the 2011 NLCS, the Brewers have lost 24 of 35 games to the Cardinals, who have outscored them 190-119. So no, the gloom and hatred is not an over-reaction.

Aside from Wang, the long highlight of the game was Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy teamed up for a pretty great relay in the top of the sixth to gun down Matt Holliday at home plate - watch the video here.

Peralta and Jay hit home runs so Craig doesn't have to.

Lance Lynn threw seven superb innings and Jon Jay hit a three-run home run to defeat the Brewers 4-0.

Carlos Martinez was fire, Matt Carpenter spoke truth to power, and Allen Craig hit a fly ball and a line drive in the same game, as the Cardinals took the first game of the series from Milwaukee--and on Milwaukee Day.

Lance Lynn

Entering tonight's game, Lynn had faced 20 left-handed batters, walking just one, striking out two, and giving up one homer. Sixteen of those PAs, then, had ended with his pitch being hit into play. His BABIP against lefties was .533.

Allowing lots of balls in play makes a pitcher vulnerable to forces beyond his control, you might've heard, and for a strikeout and flyball pitcher, allowing lots of balls in play is itself perhaps an indication that his stuff isn't working the way it should. Thus Lynn versus lefties.

His start tonight was excellent: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K. But as dominant as he was, it wasn't proof that he's figuring out his platoon split: two of his strikeouts were against a lefty, but that lefty was Scooter Gennett, and those strikeouts were looking, and the strikeout pitches were called by Bob Davidson, new adopted to our hate.

Still, his seven innings were a reminder that Lynn's fastball is really hard to hit. Even the best hitters in the world have trouble hitting it, and of course I'm talking about Ryan Braun, whom Lynn struck out swinging twice on fastballs up in the zone. Lance Lynn is a great pitcher when he's throwing fastballs up in the zone to right-handed batters, which see this heat map:

via Brooks Baseball

Lynn's final pitches were in the seventh inning (after Jhonny Peralta booted an inning-ending grounder) against pinch hitter Mark Reynolds, who for his career has struck out more than a third of the time he's faced a right-handed pitcher. Just throw it down central, Lance--

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Atta boy.

Jon Jay

While Peralta hit a home run on the first pitch he saw from Matt Garza in the second inning, giving the Cardinals the only run they'd need, it was Jay who hit the more impressive home run last night, because Jon Jay hit a home run last night.

Here is a heat map of Jon Jay's isolated power percentages by zone:

via Brooks Baseball

Jay's homer began life as an offspeed pitch from Garza thrown down in the zone and inside, where Jay has a career .202 ISO. This is a moment where the data and the world they describe shake hands. You see the graph above, and you probably have an idea in your head of what an offspeed pitch low and inside to Jay looks like, and you also know just the type of upper-cut swing he'd have to put on that pitch to take it over the wall in right field. Well what's in your head is just exactly what happened.

Allen Craig

Before tonight's game, the Craigen was floundering on the abyssal floor of Fangraphs' hitter leaderboards, with a -14 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR. After last night's game--which offered the very encouraging sight of Craig hitting both a fly ball and a line drive--well, he's still down there, but at least his wRC+ is slightly less negative now.

The pitch that the Wrench turned for a line drive over the second baseman's glove was a splitter in the middle of the plate--slightly down, slightly outside--and as I said, he hit it for a line drive. So the good news here is that Allen Craig hit what is classified as a line drive last night, for a single. The bad news is, here's what his opposite-field hits used to look like, very not long ago:

via Baseball Prospectus

I'm sure he'll figure it out soon. I'm sure he'll figure it out soon. I'm sure he'll figure it out soon. I'm sure he'll...

Carlos Martinez

The Jackal came into the game in the eighth, and what he did to the top of the Brewers' lineup was beautiful.

First, Carlos Gomez (who struck out three times last night) struck out swinging through a devastating changeup. Jean Segura then hit a slow sad grounder to short, where a young ballplayer named Peter Kozma--who had just taken over for Peralta and would later hit what I assume is his first single in the major leagues--threw it to first base for the second out. Finally, after having thrown six straight 98-mph fastballs to Gomez and Segura, Martinez threw Ryan Braun a 99-mph fastball for a strike and followed that with an 85-mph cambio that Braun got way out ahead on and popped up to Peter Kozma for the third out.

Martinez pitched a perfect ninth inning, completing the shutout started by Lynn.

A couple of notes:

• Matt Adams went three for four, including another opposite-field hit. He also beat the shift twice, once on a ridiculous pulled flare that the second baseman almost caught 250 feet away from home plate, and again on a liner past a diving Scooter Gennett.
• Matt Carpenter was ejected in the fifth inning after telling umpire Bob Davidson that the pitch he had just called a third strike was in fact no strike at all. Rather, it was a ball, argued Carpenter. Davidson took exception and ejected Carpenter. The farthest-left red triangle below represents the pitch in question,
  

via www.brooksbaseball.net

and you'll notice that it's beyond not only the ideal strike zone but also the customary strike zone. And if you tell me that Matt Carpenter should expand his zone with two strikes, or that Bob Davidson's strike zone is especially wide to lefties and Carp should adjust his approach to the peculiarities of Davidson's zone--I'll stamp my feet and say that it's not Matt Carpenter who needs to change.

A most satisfying WPA chart:

Source: FanGraphs

The series continues tomorrow at 7:10 central, as the beleaguered Shelby Miller goes up against the so-far-so-good Marco Estrada.

The Notes return from the compiler's vacation as 3/4 of the teams take an unplanned day off.

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 5-6
Postponed vs Omaha Storm Chasers (KCR)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 7-3
Postponed at Mississippi Braves (ATL)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 7-4
Won 8-5 vs Lakeland Flying Tigers (DET) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 6-4
Postponed vs Lansing Lugnuts (TOR)

Yes, almost everyone got snowed or rained out. The Manatees were lucky and in fact Michael Reed and Orlando Arcia turned a triple play. (Arcia, on the other hand, also made 3 errors....)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

The Brewers' hot start was always unsustainable so I'm not sure last night's loss means anything in and of itself. Just because they can't keep up that pace, doesn't mean they can't have success at all.

The Brewers had their 9 game winning streak snapped last night by the Cardinals and they were never going to play that well all season. Their rotation isn’t going to continue to perform at sub-3.00 ERA levels. Their bullpen isn’t this good. Their lineup isn’t very deep and they have injury prone players like Ramirez and Garza. They’re not better than the Cardinals. They’re not going to win the NL Central. I hear/see this all the time, even before last night's game. I get it. As a Brewers fan over the years it’s become sort of a survival technique to curb our enthusiasm. I get that. But optimism and pessimism are two sides of the same coin and one can go too far in either direction. I think it’s time for us as Brewers fans to take a step back from the ledge.

Most everything in that first paragraph is more or less true. I do think their bullpen is really good but that’s another conversation. Let’s get one thing straight though, no team is ever going to play at a .769 clip the whole season, so to say they’re not that good is kind of pointless and unfair. The real question is do you think they can play at a .537 clip? Because that’s what they have to do for the rest of the season to get to 90 wins which is approximately what it will take to secure a Wild Card spot. A .537 winning percentage over a whole season equates to 87 wins. I don't see that as an unattainable win rate. FanGraphs seems to think I’m being too optimistic, while Baseball Prospectus seems to agree with me that it's a possibility.

The most difficult part of the season is April and May. So far the Brewers are 10-3 through half of April. Yes there is still 75% of those two months to play, but that’s a really good start and eventually the schedule is going to get easier. Picking up games now that on paper the Brewers maybe should have lost is going to pay huge dividends later in the season when they’re playing lesser teams more frequently. Not only will they have a larger margin for error, they’ll have an easier time (on paper) getting wins.

Can we also stop pretending like the entire team is clicking on all cylinders? That’s certainly true about the pitching. However, despite several high scoring games not all hitters are killing it. They’ve each had good games, but overall Scooter Gennett (62 wRC+), Khris Davis (79 wRC+), Jean Segura (79 wRC+) have not been great offensively. If these guys don’t ever get it going then yeah, the Brewers are in trouble. But I have to believe they’re better than they’ve been. And even though I have low expectations for guys like Lyle Overbay (32 wRC+), Logan Schafer (34 wRC+), Jeff Bianchi (3! wRC+), and Martin Maldonado (48 wRC+) I think they can be better too.

I’m not saying the Brewers are going to average 8 runs a game or anything but people have been pointing to the other guys (Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, etc) and saying they can’t keep up their offensive pace. They’re right of course, because they’ve have been absolutely scorching the ball. My point is the guys that are underperforming right now will eventually pick things up and help compensate for when the other guys start to come back to Earth.

The season is long and it’s early so anything can happen, but by winning big early they’re making it that much easier on themselves. I don’t blame anyone for being cautious with their optimism, but don’t just focus on the negatives. As many things can go right as they can go wrong. Right now pretty much everything is going right. Let yourself enjoy that. Be hopeful. It’s okay.

Statistical information courtesy of FanGraphs.

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The Brewers' bullpen has been simply fantastic in 2014, but is it sustainable production or ultimately a mirage?

If you've read and retained much from the sabermetrics movement, then the variability of bullpens is quite possibly something you're familiar with. As the standard reliever analysis reads, these guys are usually in the bullpen because they aren't good enough to be starters and because the true talent bar isn't set all that high, they're prone volatile results. Of course, the discussion could be more nuanced depending on the pitcher at hand, but that's essentially the gist of it.

It can be difficult to get excited about relievers or particular bullpens when you understand these principles. Sure, you catch a great outing or two, but you start to expect that something's about to go awry and the regression to the mean is looming like a dark cloud waiting to pour on your team in an unfortunate way. A current candidate for applying this line of thinking might just be the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewer's upgraded bullpen has been stellar through the team's first 12 games. Francisco Rodriguez has been perfect thus far as the team's closer, showcasing a nasty breaking ball, but several other solid contributors back him up. Jim Henderson, Tyler Thornburg, Brandon Kintzler (who just hit the 15-day DL) and Will Smith are proving themselves as capable relievers. Thornburg has been excellent as a reliever, Kintzler has been a ground ball machine, Smith is excellent against lefties and the results show this collective dominance: Milwaukee has the second-highest bullpen WAR on the young season and the team's relievers account for 50% of their cumulative pitcher WAR. Needless to say, the results in 2014 have been outstanding thus far, as you can see below:

These five guys have been nearly perfect over the first two weeks of the year. There are several reasons for Milwaukee's 10-2 start (best in baseball through Sunday), such as a healthy and effective foursome of Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jonathon Lucroy and Aramis Ramirez and five reasonably good starts between Yovani Gallardo and Matt Garza, but there's no doubt that the bullpen domination has been a spectacular aid to the Brewers' early winning.

Some serious regression should be in order, however, as we discussed at the outset. There's clearly no way the bullpen can continue on its current pace as such production would be otherworldly. Because recent performance is the best indicator of future performance, let's examine last year's results from the same relievers. As a bonus, we'll include the ZiPS rest of season projections, too.

When we look at what's happened in the past and what is forecast for the rest of the year, some things start to really stand out. For one, each pitcher, aside from Henderson, is currently benefitting from an unsustainably low BABIP. Small sample sizes are known for distorting these kinds of numbers and while the Brewers can play some decent defense, this is going to change and probably sooner rather than later. The candidate most likely for severe regression, according to ZiPS, is Tyler Thornburg, who thus far, has been electric. Keep in mind that ZiPS has the least amount of knowledge of Thornburg given his short MLB track record and that some of it's projections are as a starting pitcher, not as a reliever, which does change the equation somewhat.

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The other major note is that none of these five Brewers relievers have surrendered a home run yet in 2014. To be fair, ZiPS doesn't necessarily suggest that these are abundantly homer-prone pitchers, but they've combined for 28.1 homerless innings so far and like their BABIP results, this cannot be sustained. With their projections, we'd expect that they'd have given up three or four longballs thus far, but alas, none have been taken yard yet. Considering that Rodriguez (37.6%), Smith (46.1), Henderson (26.8%) and Thornburg (38.2%) all posted low groundball rates last year, this trend toward limited home runs may be about to be flipped on its head.

What I don't want this to sound like is a criticism of what is a pretty good bullpen. Make no mistake, Milwaukee's relief corps can be better than most. But they're not this good because no one's this good. It just doesn't exist over the course of a full season. We're all looking for the next breakthrough, but keeping small samples in mind, this Brewers bullpen is about to fall back to earth. It's a good thing they've got the best record in baseball, because when volatility strikes the bullpen, they're going to need to rely on the cushion they've built to remain in the race for as long as they can.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

A special thank you to my friend Jonathan Judge over at Disciples of Uecker for guiding me with his Brewers expertise

. . .

Jeff Wiser is an editor and featured writer at Beyond the Box Score and co-author of Inside the 'Zona, an analytical look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. You can follow him on Twitter @OutfieldGrass24.

Ryan Braun is making a name for himself over his career as one of the best Brewers of all-time. Can he match Robin Yount's career hits total?

After the conclusion of the 2014 season, there will be no more active hitters with 3000 hits. Derek Jeter, who currently sits at 3,326 hits and was the last to reach 3,000, announced before the season began that this would be his last. After him, there is a whole lot of uncertainty as to whether any current player will reach 3,000 anytime soon.

Alex Rodriguez is the next closest. If he plays again, he'll reach it. He needs just 61 more hits, a relatively simple task. However, with his recent escapades this offseason, he might never get another major league plate appearance. He's still under contract with the Yankees, but they might prefer to eat his absurdly large deal and move forward without the distraction. And if they just cut him, who's to say he'll get picked up by another team?

There are three players above 2,000 hits who might have a chance. One, Miguel Cabrera, just broke the 2,000 threshold this season and sits at 2,004. He is also a two-time reigning AL MVP, has hit above .320 each of the last five years and, most importantly, is only 30 years old. But even he isn't a sure bet to hit 3,000. For another 1,000 hits, he needs 5.5 more seasons of averaging 180 hits. He has done that his entire career to-date, but is a big body who will eventually slow down. I'd place money on Cabrera making it, but I wouldn't wager everything.

Can Ryan Braun reach 500 home runs?

Ryan Braun likely won't be reaching 3,000 hits. Does he have a chance to hit another highly-regarded number?

Adrian Beltre (2,434 career hits) and Albert Pujols (2,361 career hits) also both have a shot at making it. But at 35 and 34 years old, respectively, they could have a tough time. If they both play long enough, they'll reach it. But another 600-700 hits can be tough to get.

So what about Ryan Braun? He does not have the most career hits among active Brewers (Aramis Ramirez holds that distinction), but he does have the best chance of reaching the vaunted 3,000. A few former Brewers have reached that number: Paul Molitor, Robin Yount and Hank Aaron. Yount is the only one to have 3,000 hits while in a Brewers uniform. Bernie Mac came close, but fell one shy. Until someone new comes along, Braun is the last hope for a Brewer to reach 3,000.

Still, Ryan Braun notching 3,000 hits is unlikely. Currently, he sits at 1,169 hits over eight seasons. Say he doesn't get hurt, and stays at the same pace for another eight years (including 2014). He'll be heading into his age-38 season at around 2,500 hits. That's if he never slows down to age and if he never misses significant time with any sort of injury.

After eight more seasons, Ryan Braun will also be eligible for free agency following the 2021 campaign. That's if his mutual option was picked up. At that age, will he keep playing? Obviously that depends on his performance in those latter seasons. If he's hitting well enough that he decides to keep on playing, will the Brewers keep him? Who knows!

Thus, the only way to ensure Braun reaches 3,000 hits in a Brewers uniform would be for him to reach it before he becomes a free agent. To get an extra 500 hits over the next eight years, he will have to average over 60 more per season than he already has. Which means he'll have to pick up, oh, about 240 hits a year or so.

Ryan Braun isn't turning into an in-his-prime Ichiro Suzuki anytime soon. There's no way he hits 3,000 in the next eight years.

The overwhelming odds are that Braun doesn't reach 3,000 at all. He has a shot, sure, but he would likely have to play into his mid-40s to do so. That's not an easy thing to do for any player. And as for reaching Robin Yount, who had 3,142 career hits? No chance.

Braun may be passing Yount in career home-runs to take the franchise lead soon, but Yount can feel safe in the assumption that his franchise hits record won't be broken anytime in the near future.

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It's cold in Appleton, but the weather is the only thing stopping one of the Midwest League's hottest hitters.

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are off again Tuesday, facing their second consecutive postponement due to a winter storm that rolled through the Appleton area early Monday. They'll play a doubleheader tomorrow and you can bet catcher Clint Coulter will be eager to get back on the field after winning Midwest League Player of the Week honors and hitting three home runs in his last two games.

Coulter, who the Brewers selected with the #27 overall pick in the 2012 draft, is currently leading the Midwest League with four home runs, 12 RBI and a 1.281 OPS. Seven of his eight hits on the season have gone for extra bases.

"I've just been focusing on what we've been working on all through the offseason and spring training, not trying to do too much and letting my swing play," Coulter said.

Patience has also been a key part of Coulter's early success. He's already drawn seven walks in nine games, helping him reach base safely at least once in all of his appearances this season. He credited a change in his approach at the plate for improvements in both his discipline and power.

"I'm on time. Before I was late, and my swing just breaks down when you're late like that," Coulter said. "You can't really get down in the slot and stay through the ball. You don't recognize pitches as well and it's just one thing after another that breaks down after you're late."

This is Coulter's second tour with the Timber Rattlers, as he also opened the 2013 season in Wisconsin. Last year he was returned to Helena early, though, and suffered through multiple trips to the disabled list. This year he says he's better prepared for the grind of a full professional season.

"Last year I was just kind of getting my feet wet as far as full season ball goes," Coulter said. "This year I've got a better routine and know what to do to keep myself healthy. Hopefully this year I'll have some better luck too."

Back-to-back postponements can be disruptive to a player's routine, but Coulter shrugged off concerns about staying ready after consecutive unexpected days off.

"It's a lot easier when things are going good," Coulter said. "I came off a hot series or two last week and when you're feeling good you honestly don't want to do too much, because when you're feeling good you can only go down. Being able to just sit back and relax and wait to see the game is a lot easier than coming in and getting a ton of early work in. So I'm just ready to go and whenever we get to play I'll be ready."

Coulter is still only 20 years old, and Baseball Reference says he's about a year and a half younger than most of his opponents in the Midwest League. He's already more than halfway to the seven home runs he hit last year, but declined to share his goal number for this season.

"I don't want to say nothing or I'll jinx myself and go 0-for the next whatever," Coulter said. "But you don't know. It has a lot to do with the pitchers throwing you pitches that you can hit out of the park. The first few games of the season, besides the first game where I hit a home run, I just honestly didn't get pitches that I could really hit out. I squared a few up but pitchers pitched me pretty good, and kept the ball down. If I get good pitches I could have a lot (of home runs), but we'll see."

For more from Kyle, check out the new Frosty Mug at Milwaukee Magazine, follow him on Twitter @BrewFrostyMugand like his new Facebook page.

Um...at least they scored once this time?

Winning Pitcher: Shelby Miller (1-2)

Losing Pitcher: Marco Estrada (1-1)

HR: Aramis Ramirez (2), Matt Holliday (1), Jhonny Peralta (4)

Boxscore

Marco Estrada was able to pitch a clean 1-2-3 first inning, highlighted by an excellent catch in foul territory by Khris Davis. He ran into trouble in the second though. After hitting Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta hit a double. With Molina at third base, a Mark Ellis ground out giving the Cardinals a 1-0 lead. Estrada would end the inning by striking out the next batter.

In the third inning Estrada allowed a walk which would come around to score on a double by Allen Craig. Estrada was able to catch Craig off the base for the third out. It looked very close and for a moment it seemed like the Cardinals were going to ask for a replay. Fortunately they didn't, as I thought it would have been reversed.

The fourth inning was another mess. Estrada gave up a base hit to Matt Adams. Molina hit a bloop single which allowed Adams to advance to third. The Brewers caught a break when Aramis Ramirez charged a grounder from Jhonny Peralta and was able to get the runner at third out in a run down. The runners would advance to second and third though. Mark Ellis would drive in the Cardinals third run on a sac fly. The next play was somewhat similar. Peter Bourjous grounded to Jean Segura. With no chance to get the out at first he threw to third which allowed them to get Ellis in a round down for the third out.

This started out as another frustrating game for the Brewers offense. In the first inning Carlos Gomez drew a walk. Yes you read that right. He was immediately erased when Ryan Braun grounded into a double play. Then in the second inning Jonathan Lucroy drew a walk and was promptly erased by himself. He attempted to steal second...against Yadier Molina. Frustrating. Khris Davis also drew a walk that inning, but he never moved off first base.

In the fourth inning with two outs Aramis Ramirez said NO MORE with his second home run of the season. The Brewers would cut the Cardinals lead to 3-1. After the two run downs to end the Cardinals half of the fourth inning this really felt like a turning point. It felt that way...

Marco Estrada struck out the first batter in the fifth and got Matt Carpenter to pop-out in foul territory. He then struck out Allen Craig to end the inning. The sixth inning went just about as smoothly starting with a ground out by Matt Holliday. Scooter Gennett made a nice catch in shallow right field for the second out. The third out came on a grounder to Segura who actually bobbled pretty badly, but with Molina running it didn't matter.

Tyler Thornburg took the mound in the seventh inning. I was a big fan of this move. Thornburg throws in the mid-90's while Estrada throws in the high-80's to low-90's. I think it keeps the batters off balance. In this case it worked as Thornburg retired the side with a strike out, ground out, and fly out.

In the eighth inning Ron Roenicke pulled Thornburg so Zach Duke could face Daniel Descalso. The Cardinals countered with Shane Robinson. He grounded out. Duke then struck out Carpenter. For some reason Roenicke decided to leave Duke in to face Allen Craig. It happened to work as Duke got the ground out. Good results, bad process in my opinion. Thornburg is too good to be relegated to single innings and Duke just isn't very good.

Jim Henderson entered in the 9th and gave up a lead off home run to Matt Holliday on the first pitch. Matt Adams followed with a single. He was erased when Molina hit into a fielder's choice. Jhonny Peralta would then hit his second home run of the series bringing the Cardinals lead to 6-1.

Those runs were unnecessary as the Brewers' offense was unable to put anything together after Ramirez's solo shot in the fourth inning. It's frustrating anytime the Cardinals beat them, but their season record is 10-4 which is still pretty good. They're back at it tomorrow afternoon at 12:05 pm CT when Wily Peralta faces Joe Kelly. The game will not be televised.

Actual games!

Nashville Sounds (AAA) 5-7
Lost 8-4 vs Memphis Redbirds (STL)(box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (AA) 8-4
Lost Game 1 3-2 (7 inn.) at Mississippi Braves (ATL) (box / pbp)
Won Game 2 5-1 (7 inn.) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High A) 8-4
Won 7-1 vs Lakeland Flying Tigers (DET) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A) 6-4
Cancelled vs Lansing Lugnuts (TOR)

Player/Pitcher Points of Interest

Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo seem to have completely transformed themselves so far this season. But how? The answer will shock you.

Early in spring training teammates knew something was different about Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse. First it was small things they noticed. Yo seemed a little more reserved except for the occasional "seed shower" during television interviews. Lohse was a little more outspoken. Of course it wasn’t all that surprising. Gallardo was coming off the worst season of his career and Lohse was just more comfortable coming into his second season with the Brewers.

It wasn’t until Jonathan Lucroy started catching them that he began to suspect something was really wrong. "I pushed it from my mind," Lucroy said. "It was just impossible. It had to be."

It wasn’t though.

The two pitchers were initially apprehensive to talk about it for fear of persecution. "We thought people would think we’re crazy," Lohse admitted. "I mean, it’s pretty insane if you’re on the outside looking in," Gallardo added.

What on Earth is going on, you ask? To put it plainly, Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse have had their bodies switched. Yes. I’m serious.

Still here? Think I’m nuts? I don’t blame you. But when you look closely it’s pretty obvious. Pitcher A: 9.03 K/9, 25% strikeout rate, 3.05 BB/9. Pitcher B: 6.27 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 53.6% ground ball rate. Pitcher A is a strikeout guy who maybe gives up walks a little more than you’d like. Pitcher B is a pitch to contact ground ball guy with excellent precision which allows him to limit the free passes.

You know based on history that Pitcher A is Yovani Gallardo and Pitcher B is Kyle Lohse. You’re wrong though. It’s the other way around and there’s only one explanation.

"Gypsy curse," Gallardo says. "In late February, to celebrate the end of winter and the coming season, we went to a carnival. It was one of those small ones that doesn’t really have any good rides."

"I thought it’d be fun to get our fortunes read," explained Lohse. "I jokingly asked the palm reader if Yo would ever learn how to pitch. Then he asked her if I’d ever learn how to get a strikeout. We started to argue about pitching philosophy and I guess maybe we got on her nerves or something. Anyway, she told us we just needed a change in perspective and gave us each a ticket for a free snow-cone."

"It was the snow-cone," agrees Gallardo. "I got raspberry. It was okay but they didn’t use enough syrup. It was free so it is what it is I guess. I don’t really remember what happened after that. I woke up on the beach the following morning next to this really chill golden retriever. It must have been a stray, but it was really friendly. I like dogs."

"Uh, anyway," Lohse continues. "Neither one of us knew what happened until we got home. I won’t go into details, but it was an awkward way to find out."

So what now?

"[We] just have to take things day to day," Gallardo said. "I’m not sure if we’ll ever get back to our old selves but if I know my 80’s movies, and I do, once we learn a powerful life lesson about respecting each other’s differences, that should do it."

"Right now I’m just trying to go out there make my pitches and hit my spots. You just want to give the team a chance to win. That’s all you can do," Lohse said.

They both admit that it’s taking some time to get used to their new lives. Gallardo misses his dog, but thinks Hank is pretty cool. So far on the field it’s been smooth sailing. The pair has combined for 6 starts, 39.1 IP, and 9 ER. That's good for a 2.06 ERA. The Brewers are 5-1 when they take the mound. They attribute it partially to the now outdated scouting reports on the pair.

When asked for comment Ron Roenicke simply said, "As long as they can bunt, it’s all the same to me."

More from Brew Crew Ball

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After 4 solid innings, Joe Kelly leaves game early due to base running injury.

Sweeping a series is hard. Last season, the Cardinals swept a 3 or 4 game series 6 times, while losing the final game of a potential sweep 8 times. Today, Joe Kelly would try to deliver the Cardinals' first sweep of the season in their first chance.

The game started out as a ground ball battle as both Wily Peralta and Joe Kelly were inducing a lot weak contact. Kelly looked just about as good as he ever has.

A Matt Adams error in the bottom of the third on a Logan Schafer grounder set up the Brewers' first run of the day. Carlos Gomez's ridiculous cartoon swing lined a double to right CF, rather than providing the cool breezes (and strikeouts) it had been for most of the series.

Both pitchers continued to be in control until the bottom of the fifth, when Kelly would attempt to leg out a two-out bunt attempt. Machine Gun grabbed at the back of his thigh after being thrown out at first, a sure sign of hamstring trouble. He would be forced to relinquish the game to the bullpen.

As of now, "hamstring tightness" seems to be the word.

Joe Kelly left today’s game with left hamstring tightness. #STLCards

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 16, 2014

Joe Kelly headed back to St. Louis tomorrow to have hamstring injury evaluated. If he misses next start (Monday), expect Lyons to fill in.

— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) April 16, 2014

Seth Maness was brought in to fill the gap. After getting his first two batters, Wily Peralta would sting one off Jhonny Peralta's glove. Initially ruled a hit, it would later be ruled an error. After the misplay, the floodgates would open and 3 runs would score on a walk and 3 singles.

Despite allowing a solo homer to Allen Craig, Wily Peralta would continue to cruise until lifted in the 7th when Matt Carpenter was brought up to pinch-hit.

Keith Butler, working a quick 7th, would get into trouble in the 8th, loading the bases on a single, HBP, then a walk without recording an out. Pat Neshek worked out of the jam about as well as could be expected, allowing only one run across.

The Birdos would threaten a bit in the 9th, but Francisco Rodriguez got out of trouble and locked up the game.

Source: FanGraphs

The good news: Craig is starting to look a little better at the plate.

The bad news: It might be a while before Joe Kelly dances again.

Cardinals Game Notes 4/16

Brewers Game Notes 4/16

Cardinals Scorecard 2014-04-16
Scorecard courtesy Thirty81Project.com

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Condensed Game -- Video Highlights

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