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Pirates' Latest Loss To Brewers Effectively Bounces Bucs From N.L. Playoff Race

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With their 3-1 loss to the Brewers Wednesday night, the Pirates not only dropped to .500 (putting their first winning season in two decades in further jeopardy), they also fell to 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second N.L. Wild Card spot. They're also well behind the Dodgers and now the Brewers.

It's sad, in a way, that it lasted this long. As I remarked on the Bucs Dugout Podcast Wednesday night, the combination of the extra playoff spot and the weakened National League created an NHL- or NBA-like situation, with random mediocre teams having a shot at the playoffs. The Pirates' season became more and more frustrating over the past month, but it was still difficult to write them off because, thanks to weak play from the Cardinals and Dodgers, the Pirates were still in the race.

Well, no more. The Pirates aren't mathematically out of it, but it would take a miracle for them to work their way back in. And really, they shouldn't be in -- they're not nearly good enough, and they probably never were. All that's left now is whether they'll finish with a winning season, and given that they'll have to be two games above .500 the rest of the way to make that happen, that looks doubtful. In fact, it's looking more and more likely that the Pirates are headed for a 20th straight losing season -- an amazing feat, in a way, for a team that was 16 games over .500 a couple months ago.

For more on the Pirates, check out Bucs Dugout.


Biogenesis scandal: MLB players could face suspension before appeal

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MLB players facing punishment for their alleged connection to the Biogenesis clinic in Miami may face suspensions before the appeals process, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting.

When a player tests positive for a performance-enhancing drug, their suspension is not supposed to be announced until after the appeals process. The MLB Joint Drug Agreement, however, enables the sport to announce suspensions for "just cause" before the appeals process has begun, but only if the allegations have been previously made public from outside sources, according to Rosenthal.

That means Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez and other players who have never been suspended for positive tests are not guaranteed the same level of confidentiality that a player who has tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug is guaranteed.

These first-time offenders could continue playing while their appeals are being heard. Players like Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera, Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Bartolo Colon and San Diego Padres catcher Yasmani Grandal, who have been previously suspended for performance-enhancing drugs, could not play during the appeals process.

MLB cannot suspend a player twice for the same offense, so Cabrera, Colon and/or Grandal may not face suspensions if they used and tested positive for the drugs from the Biogenesis clinic.

More from SB Nation:

Enhance: Little Big League's baffling 'Runaround Sue' montage

Why don't teams trade in June?

Chicago Cubs shopping players

David Wright's assault on history

Neyer: Blaming the K for KC's struggles

Carlos Gomez injury: Brewers CF leaves game after crashing into wall

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Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez left Sunday's game against the Atlanta Braves after crashing into the wall at Miller Park. Gomez suffered a left shoulder sprain making the catch, the Brewers announced.

Gomez_medium

Gomez somehow made the leaping catch at the warning track against Andrelton Simmons to rob the shortstop of extra bases, but immediately grabbed his left shoulder in pain and walked off the field.

The center fielder has been one of the few bright spots for the Brewers this season, hitting .314/.354/.572 in 291 plate appearances while playing impressive defense. Advanced statistics rate Gomez as one of the best players in baseball this season — the Baseball Tonight Twitter account noted before the game that Gomez leads MLB in WAR.

Brewers beat writer Tom Haudricourt pointed out that Gomez fractured his left clavicle making a diving catch against the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011. Haudricourt also speculated that Gomez may have dislocated or separated his shoulder, because his arm smashed into the wall at an awkward angle.

More from SB Nation:

Enhance: Little Big League's baffling 'Runaround Sue' montage

Why don't teams trade in June?

Chicago Cubs shopping players

David Wright's assault on history

Neyer: Blaming the K for KC's struggles

NL All-Star balloting: Yadier Molina, Buster Posey waging close battle at catcher

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Major League Baseball released an update of National League All-Star voting on Sunday, and a pair of Giants were surpassed for the lead at two positions.

David Wright of the Mets had himself quite a Sunday, with two home runs, a triple and a double in an 8-0 win over the Phillies. Wright also took over the lead at third base, with 2,917,819 votes, over Pablo Sandoval of the Giants, at 2,788,988. Sandoval won the fan balloting in 2012, but Wright was voted the National League starting third baseman in 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010.

The All-Star Game will be held at Wright's home park of Citi Field in New York on Tuesday, July 16.

National League catcher has the closest vote in the majors, with Yadier Molina of the Cardinals is the overall NL leader with 3,596,858, a narrow advantage over Buster Posey of the Giants (3,506,402). Molina was voted starter in 2009 and 2010, and is a four-time All-Star, while Posey, the 2012 National League MVP, started at catcher in the 2012 midsummer classic.

In-stadium voting will run through June 28, while online and mobile voting will run through July 4. The All-Star rosters will be announced on Fox on July 6.

Below are the updated N.L. vote totals as of 6/23:

PlayerTeamVotes
CYadier MolinaCardinals3,596,858
Buster PoseyGiants3,506,402
John BuckMets1,087,519
1BJoey VottoReds2,677,813
Paul GoldschmidtDiamondbacks2,270,886
Allen CraigCardinals1,801,138
2BBrandon PhillipsReds2,597,742
Marco ScutaroGiants2,272,484
Matt CarpenterCardinals2,251,248
3BDavid WrightMets2,917,819
Pablo SandovalGiants2,788,988
David FreeseCardinals1,728,322
SSTroy TulowitzkiRockies3,104,285
Brandon CrawfordGiants1,757,255
Jean SeguraBrewers1,625,753
OFCarlos BeltranCardinals3,473,030
Justin UptonBraves2,453,531
Bryce HarperNationals2,363,965
Carlos GonzalezRockies2,060,388
Ryan BraunBrewers2,010,310
Matt Holliday
Cardinals1,947,864

Roto Roundup: David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo and Others

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Do you have some trade offers you are consider, but need to bounce them off of someone? Are you pondering a roster move and want a second opinion? Feel free to post your questions in the Fantasy Baseball Questions thread.

Fake Teams Podcast; Episode 11: Don't Think, React

Zack and Andrew hosted episode 11 of the Fake Teams podcast on Thursday night, where they discussed Zack Wheeler, Yasiel Puig, Pedro Alvarez and much more.

MP3

ITunes

David Wright carrying the Mets offense

David Wright recently signed a long term deal with the Mets, a team that is in the middle of a rebuild, with one of the reasons being that the Mets have two very young starters named Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. The rest of the team around him is not that good, but that has not affected his performance at the plate. Wright went 4-5 with 2 doubles, a triple, HR, 2 runs and 2 RBI yesterday, raising his triple slash line to .309-.390-.533 with 12 HRs, 39 runs, 41 RBI and 12 stolen bases. For me, Wright is the second best fantasy third baseman right now.

He is currently on pace to put up a 27 home run, 27 stolen base season in 2013.

Edwin Encarnacion leading the streaking Blue Jays

There is not a hotter team in baseball than the Toronto Blue Jays right now, and Edwin Encarnacion is duplicating his 2012 break out season to help. Encarnacion had a big day at the plate on Sunday, going 3-5 with a double, HR, 2 runs and 4 RBI in the Blue Jays 13-5 win over the Orioles. Encarnacion is now hitting .274-.355-.545 with 21 HRs, 50 runs, 63 RBI, 3 stolen bases and an excellent 39-34 strikeout to walk rate.

He ranks in the top 10 in the American League in runs, HR, RBI, SLG, and OPS right now. Pretty impressive for a guy that used to be a free swinger in Cincinnati.

Round'em Up

Cubs outfielder Ryan Sweeney had the game of his life yesterday, going 3-5 with 2 doubles, HR, 2 runs and 6 RBI in the Cubs 14-6 win over the Astros. Sweeney is now hitting .309-.356-.521 with 3 HRs, 9 runs and 13 RBI in less than 100 at bats this season. Sweeney is a backup outfielder who is playing every day now.

Sweeney's teammate Anthony Rizzo had a huge day at the plate as well, going 3-3 with a double, HR, 4 runs and 4 RBI, raising his triple slash line to .253-.340-.469 with 12 HRs, 40 runs, 44 RBI and 5 stolen bases this season. Rizzo has struggled in June, hitting just .188 with just one home run and 4 RBI. But on a positive note, he has walked 17 times vs just 11 strikeouts in 64 June at bats.

Don't look now, but Austin Jackson is on fire. AJax went 2-2 with 3 walks and 3 runs scored in the Tigers 7-5 win over the Red Sox. Since returning from the DL, covering 9 games, Jackson is 16-35 with 10 runs scored and a 4-6 strikeout to walk rate, raising his batting average from .266 to .306. Jackson is now hitting .306-.374-.409 with 3 HRs, 43 runs, 16 RBI and 6 stolen bases. Assuming he stays healthy, he should still score 100 runs in the dangerous Tigers lineup this season.

Are all of those innings pitched over the last few seasons starting to catch up to Tigers starter Justin Verlander? Verlander has not been the same pitcher for fantasy owners this season. Yesterday, he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits, 3 walks, and 4 strikeouts in just 5 innings in the Tigers win over the Red Sox. He has given up 3 runs or more in eight of his last 10 starts. Of concern for the Tigers fans, and his fantasy owners, is the drop in his fastball velocity from 94.3 mph to 92.6 mph this season. Actually, his fastball velocity has been dropping every year since 2009.

Is Justin Verlander still a top 10 fantasy starting pitcher?

Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer is quietly having an excellent season at the plate, and he went 3-4 with a HR and 4 RBI in Sunday's 8-7 win over the Nationals. Cuddyer raised his triple slash line to .339-.394-.578 with 11 HRs, 32 runs, 43 RBI and has even thrown in 6 stolen bases as well, all in just over 200 at bats this season.

Mets starter Matt Harvey just continues to dominate National League hitters this season. Yesterday, he shut out the Phillies on 2 hits, a walk and 6 strikeouts in "just" 6 innings in the Mets 8-0 win. Harvey needed just 72 pitches to get through six innings and owners in 5 x 5 leagues will not have to start thinking about whether the Mets will shut him down at some point this season, or if this is just a way to limit his innings as they were up 6-0 when he was removed from the game.

Closer Roundup

Jason Grilli has been the best closer in baseball this season, but yesterday, he proved that pitching in the big leagues is not easy. Grilli was called upon to pitch in a non-save situation, and almost blew a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning, but struck out Mike Trout with two out and men on second and third. He has now given up runs in two of his last three appearances, but is nowhere near losing his job, but he needed 28 pitches to get three outs yesterday, so Mark Melancon could get the next save opportunity for the Pirates.

Angels closer Ernesto Frieri blew his second save of the season yesterday, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and a walk in the loss to the Pirates yesterday. Like Grilli, he is not in danger of losing his closer job, and actually had converted 14 save opportunities in a row before yesterday.

Brewers manager Ron Roenicke might be getting more comfortable with Francisco Rodriguez as his closer. Yesterday, he used former closer Jim Henderson in the 9th inning of a game they are losing 6-4 and he gave up a run on two hits, a walk and a strikeout. Closers are volatile, and so are managers utilization of said closers.

More from Fake Teams

Complete SP Rankings: Week 13

Fantasy Baseball: Two-Start Pitchers for Week 13

Yasiel Puig and Regression

Fantasy Football 2013: Top 100 Standard Rankings

Roster Advice -- Blanks, the fill-in

Waiver Wire: 10 Under 10%

Around the League - N.L.

Today In Brewer History: Meet the Mariners

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On this day in 1977 the Brewers racked up 15 hits en route to a 7-1 win over the Mariners. Lary Sorensen pitched a complete game for the victory and Sal Bando homered in the first-ever meeting between these two teams.

The Mariners were an expansion franchise, the city of Seattle's first entry into MLB since the Pilots had left to become the Brewers in spring of 1970. Including this day the two teams have met 233 times, with the Brewers leading the all-time series 119-114.

Here are some fun facts about this matchup:

  • Robin Yount is the Brewer career leader with 212 hits against the M's, representing slightly less than 7% of his career total. Paul Molitor was a distant second with 156 hits, but posted a .316 batting average against Seattle.
  • Yount also led all Brewers with 23 career home runs and 110 RBI against Seattle. The 110 RBI are the tenth most ever by an opposing player against the Mariners.
  • Ken Griffey had 101 hits and 17 home runs against the Brewers during his time in Seattle, leading both categories.
  • Randy Johnson pitched for Seattle against Milwaukee 19 times and struck out 131 batters over 130.2 innings, including 13 in a game in 1993.

These two teams haven't met since June of 2010, when the Brewers took two of three. They'll hook up again this August in Seattle, where the Brewers will be the visiting team for the first time.

With help from the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to:

Today is also the 25th anniversary of three Brewers each stealing a pair of bases in their 5-4 win over the Angels in 1988. We covered that event in this space two years ago.

Monday's Frosty Mug: What's Polish for "missed opportunity?"

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Some things to read while satisfying a craving.

The Brewers dug a big hole early and never came back yesterday, as Alfredo Figaro allowed a grand slam in the first inning of a 7-4 loss to the Braves. Noah has the recap, if you missed it. Figaro allowed six runs yesterday and 12 of the 21 batters he faced reached base.

The Brewers may have dodged a serious bullet when Carlos Gomez banged against the wall after making a leaping catch and came out of the game holding his shoulder. The injury looked serious at the time but was later diagnosed as a shoulder sprain and Gomez is day-to-day. He told Tom Haudricourt he thinks he'll be ok "in a couple of days" and is reportedly not going to undergo an MRI.

By winning on Friday and Saturday the Brewers avoided a dubious distinction: The Braves entered and left the weekend series as less-than-proud owners of Big League Stew's "Glass Joe Title."

Other notes from the field:

  • Rickie Weeks went 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday and now has a hit in eight straight games. Joe Block notes that he's also hit in 16 consecutive starts.
  • Rubie_Q notes that Weeks' Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) are back to even for the season.
  • The hit by pitch was the 111th of Weeks career, and Tim Hudson's 110th thrown. Plunk Everyone has more on those accomplishments.
  • Caleb Gindl got his first major league hit on Saturday.
  • The Chorizo, Hot Dog and Brat won Friday-Sunday's sausage races, respectively.

Let's put a bow on the Braves series with this look at the weekend's home runs, with help from Hit Tracker and Wezen-ball:

DayPlayerDistanceTrot Times
FridayJean Segura366 feet16.83 seconds*
SaturdayNo home runs
SundayJonathan Lucroy436 feet**20.91 seconds

* - Segura's trot time was the fastest in all of baseball on Friday.
** - Lucroy's home run Sunday was the longest hit by a Brewer in 2013.

The Brewers are off today before resuming play at home against the Cubs tomorrow. Kyle Lohse will take on Edwin Jackson in the opener, and Joey Nowak has the MLB.com preview. Fourth place in the NL Central will be on the line this week, and Kristin Zenz of PocketDoppler.com says the race to avoid finishing last is one the Brewers will win.

Make sure you're taking advantage of today's off day, because it's the last one for a while: The Brewers start a stretch of 20 games in 20 days starting tomorrow. They're off for four days for the All Star break in July, but aside from that their next scheduled break comes on August 1.

Scooter Gennett had a relatively quiet weekend, going 1-for-4 with a single. David G. Temple of NotGraphs had some fun with his out on the bases from last week.

At this point I almost feel like we're piling on Alfredo Figaro, but I couldn't not mention that Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs also tagged him as responsible for the worst pitch in all of baseball last week.

Looking ahead, nothing that happened this weekend made the Brewers any less likely to be sellers at the trade deadline. Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker has a look at some AL teams that could be candidates for a July deal.

Yovani Gallardo's name will likely continue to come up in rumors, and it's possible his value has gone up a bit while he's been pitching better lately. He's our reigning Brewer of the Week and the first pitcher to earn that honor in 12 weeks this season.

Of course, if you're not interested in watching the Brewers build for the future, there is another option: Dave Radcliffe of Yahoo has a list of ten reasons to give up on this team.

In the minors:

  • The affiliates went 1-5 yesterday but the lone win came from Brevard County, where Ben McMahan, Nick Ramirez and Yadiel Rivera all homered in the Manatees' 12-1 win over Dunedin. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
  • Meanwhile, a pair of Brewer pitchers made relief appearances, but both got some bad news: Marco Estrada allowed six runs in just 2.2 innings of work for Wisconsin, while Hiram Burgos was only able to pitch an inning before a long rain delay ended his day with Nashville.
  • Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio has video highlights from Wisconsin's 13-9 loss to Cedar Rapids, which included the end of outfielder Michael Reed's 39 game on-base streak.
  • Tim Froberg of the Appleton Post Crescent has a profile of Wisconsin outfielder Tyrone Taylor. (h/t @Mass_Haas)
  • Nashville broadcaster Jeff Hem has an interview with Sounds first baseman Sean Halton.

Around baseball:

Angels: Placed pitcher Jason Vargas on the DL with a blood clot.
Astros: Designated pitcher Ross Seaton for assignment.
Diamondbacks: Designated infielder Josh Wilson for assignment.
Dodgers: Released catcher Ramon Hernandez.
Mariners: Placed first baseman Michael Morse on the DL with a quad strain and designated outfielder Eric Thames for assignment.
Mets: Placed first baseman/outfielder Lucas Duda on the DL with an intercostal strain.
Nationals: Are expected to place pitcher Dan Haren on the DL with shoulder weakness.
Padres: Placed pitcher Clayton Richard on the DL with a shoulder strain.
Phillies: Placed pitchers Mike Adams and Mike Stutes on the DL, both with biceps tendonitis.
Rangers: Placed outfielder Craig Gentry on the DL with a fractured hand.
Rockies: Acquired pitcher Hisanori Takahashi from the Cubs for a PTBNL and designated pitcher Logan Kensing for assignment.
Royals: Claimed pitcher Makiel Cleto off waivers from the Cardinals and designated outfielder Quintin Berry for assignment.
Tigers: Designated reliever Jose Valverde for assignment.
Twins: Placed pitcher Mike Pelfrey on the DL with a back strain.
Yankees: Designated infielder Reid Brignac for assignment and acquired infielder Brent Lillibridge from the Cubs for a PTBNL or cash.

Let's go around the NL Central:

  • The Cardinals have only had two three-game losing streaks all season, but they're on one of them right now after getting swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Adam Wainwright was last night's tough luck loser, allowing two runs over 6.2 innings in a 2-1 loss.
  • Meanwhile, the Pirates swept the Angels to close the gap to a single game at the top of the division. They scored three in the ninth to tie, four in the tenth to take the lead and held on for a 10-9 win over Anaheim Sunday.
  • The Reds lost two of three to Arizona this weekend but the lone win came yesterday when they scored three in the first inning en route to a 4-2 victory. Shin-Soo Choo and Brandon Phillips homered in the game.
  • The Cubs took two of three from the Astros this weekend, including a 14-6 decision on Sunday. The two teams combined for 29 hits in the game, and Ryan Sweeney went 3-for-5 with 6 RBI.
  • The Brewers, of course, took two of three from the Braves but lost 7-4 yesterday.

Here are today's standings:

TeamWLGB
Cardinals4729--
Pirates46301
Reds45322.5
Cubs314315
Brewers314315

All five Central division teams are off today.

Today in former Brewers: Carlos Lee used his 37th birthday to announce his retirement over the weekend. He finished his career with 358 home runs, including 60 as a Brewer. Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball has a tribute to his career.

This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History marks the 36th anniversary of the first-ever meeting between the Brewers and Mariners. Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times notes that it's also been 8000 days since Paul Molitor's 2000th hit and 30 years since Don Sutton's 3000th strikeout. Via Plunk Everyone, we also know the following birthday milestones:

Elsewhere in Brewer history, Kevin Kimmes of Cream City Cables has launched a new series looking at baseball cards commemorating the pre-Braves era of Milwaukee baseball. It's a worthy goal, to be sure.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I think we're even.

Drink up.

The Week in Confirmation Bias, 6/17-6/23

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Confirmation bias - "a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way." (Wikipedia)

Last week we saw the obvious consequence of pitching to Mike Stanton, bore witness to the very best of Bill Schroeder, and took note of several wall-scrapers in Cincinnati's bandbox.

This week we step away from conspiracy theories involving FSN's subliminal sexism and focus on less controversial occurrences which made our brains work very little.

Maxim: Slumping/bad players always break out against the Crew. - GoldenFrank

The forward slash separates "slumping" and "bad" so that the maxim can apply to two different types of players. Good players that are slumping. Bad players that are just bad in general.

In the case off Astros' third baseman Matt Dominguez, the verb and the adjective are equally applicable.

To be fair, Dominguez is still young and relatively unproven. He turns 24 on August 28th. But his track record with the bat in the minor leagues is mediocre for a corner infielder, especially considering he is a former 1st round pick (the Marlins took him at #12 in 2007). As the Marlins frantically tried to patch up their sinking ship, they dealt him to the Astros in part of a deal for Carlos Lee. They had Hanley Ramirez at third base, and it's not like he was going anywhere anytime soon.

Though Dominguez was serviceable in a few ABs in 2012 (.284/.310/.477 in 113 PA), 2013 has been a different story. In the first two months of the season, he produced a Yuni-ish slash of .239/.266/.410. In June the struggles continued, with only 11 hits and a single walk in 56 PA.

Then the Brewers came to Houston.

Dominguez went 6-11 with a game-clinching grand slam off of Tom Gorzellany in game 1 of the series. In the rubber match, he contributed a key RBI double off of Yovani Gallardo in the bottom of the 6th. It was his only 3-hit game of the season.

This weekend, he went 1-11 against the Cubs.

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

Maxim: The contact play never works. - GoGregGo

We've been over this. But it happened again. I only bring it up because it ended up being kind of important. Plus, it's fun to feel right about things.

In the top of the 9th inning against Houston on Thursday evening, Scooter Gennett stood at second base with one out with Jean Segura at the plate. The game was tied, so Gennett's run was looking like a pretty big deal. Unfortunately, Jose Veras was Jose Veras, and doomed the Brewers' chances with this delivery:

Veraswild_medium

"That could be a big one for the Brewers," said Brian Anderson. He was right. The inning just ended. Two pitches later:

Scooterout_medium

Because of this recurrence I decided to do some research (but not too much). The Brewers have the third most runner-on-third-with-less-than-two-outs instances in the NL (162). They are also tied for the third most instances in which that runner scored (81). Their success rate of 50% is right on league average.

However, that success rate includes fly balls, base hits, homeruns, etc. And ground balls to third base. Which, according to my trained analytical eye, the Brewers are 0/however many.

Verdict: BIAS RE-VALIDATED

Maxim: The Brewers always beat up on the Pirates. - Dikembe Meiztombo

No, you're right. The Brewers didn't play the Pirates this week. But Manny Parra did. And he used to be a Brewer.

Manny Parra has pitched 34 innings to Pittsburgh hitters, which is 4th most total behind STL (81.1), HOU(51) and CIN (44.1). Among these four teams Parra's best ERA (2.65), WHIP (1.382), and K/BB (2.33) have come against the Pirates.

Here's what he did this week:

2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Once a Brewer, always a Brewer, right?

Given his ineffectiveness this season (a 1.938 WHIP juiced by a 14.1 H/9), it was quite a display for the Red's mop-up man.

Visual proof from Tuesday's game in Cincinnati, for those who don't believe it:

Parrak1_medium

Nice swing, Garrett. Later that inning:

Parrak2_medium

Note: the kid wasn't ultra-enthralled because of a well-located splitter. Turns out a local pizza chain gives away free pizzas after 11 strikeouts by the home team. This was number 11. Probably the most love Manny's ever gotten from a paying audience.

The next night Parra completed the Pirate bullying with not only a clean top of the 13th inning, but earned a win when the Reds walked off in the bottom half of the inning. Not only was he good, he was lucky.

Just like any Brewer, when Manny Parra sees the Pirates, he sees red. Ironic, right?

...because he's a Red. Is that irony? I never know.

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

Maxim: The Brewers always do better when I'm not watching

Perfectnull_medium

Usually a Wily Peralta start is something not worth watching, but that assumes that you're watching.

Verdict: BIAS VALIDATED

-------------------------------------------------------

If you have any more maxims in mind, post in the comments and I'll add them to the master list. So I can selectively choose them when they become relevant - for further virtuous analysis.


Tuesday's Frosty Mug: Let's play 20

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Some things to read while taking your time. (h/t Baseball Musings)

The Brewers have been off on three of the last 12 days, but they're about to start making up for it. They open a series with the Cubs tonight as the first of 20 games in 20 days leading up to the All Star break. After the break they'll play 23 more games in 24 days.

In the meantime, though, off days this time of year frequently lead to rampant trade speculation. That was certainly the case yesterday, as Doug Melvin sparked a conversation about Yovani Gallardo by alluding to the possibility that the Brewer ace could be dealt. Michael Hunt of the JS says Gallardo "must go" to help the Brewers build for the future.

Off days are also a great time to spark up a conversation about the merits and demerits of a manager. Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball dissected a Roenicke quote about helping Francisco Rodriguez get to 300 saves (also noted in this FanShot), while Justin Schultz of Reviewing the Brew took issue with Roenicke's recent statement that "things are okay."

Elsewhere in coaching, Brewer hitting coach Johnny Narron recently appeared on the David Glenn Show in Raleigh, North Carolina. You can hear the archived interview here.

Rickie Weeks resumes play tonight on an eight game hitting streak and is hitting .364/.435/.618 in his last 19 games. Jim Owczarski of OnMilwaukee.com has a great feature on him this morning that includes some stories I'd never heard before.

Jean Segura also has a hit in seven consecutive games and is back in the NL lead with 99 on the season. Mike Woods of the Appleton Post Crescent says he deserves consideration for a spot on the All Star team. I'll go a step further and say he's a near-lock to represent the Brewers at this point.

The Brewers will almost certainly not, however, be represented at first base. Rob Neyer lists their collection of "talent" at the position among baseball's greatest positional disasters.

In the minors:

Back in Milwaukee, Gunaxin.com has an infographic showing that beer prices at Miller Park ($6 for 16 ounces) are roughly in the middle of the road among MLB stadiums. Interestingly enough, the Angels, Diamondbacks and Rangers all offer much better bargains. (h/t PocketDoppler.com)

If you're at Miller Park this week and struggling to identify a song you're hearing, John and Cait have updated their player entrance music list to include Caleb Gindl (Kool and the Gang) and show some recent changes.

Looking back to Saturday, you may have heard that the sausage race was taken over by Dan Patrick and his staff. Howie Magner of Milwaukee Magazine has a look at their experience, which led to an increasingly rare Hot Dog victory.

On Sunday, of course, the Brewers debuted "Piwowarzy" jerseys for Polish Heritage Day. Big League Stew has photos and more from the occasion.

If you haven't yet, please take a moment today to vote in this week's BCB Tracking Poll. It will remain open through the day today and results will be posted tomorrow.

Around baseball:

Astros: Designated pitcher Wade LeBlanc for assignment.

There were only four games played around baseball yesterday, and none of them involved NL Central teams. Here are today's standings and probables:

TeamWLGBTodayTimeMatchup
Cardinals4729--@ HOU7:10pJake Westbrook v Lucas Harrell
Pirates46301@ SEA9:10pJeff Locke v Joe Saunders
Reds45322.5@ OAK9:05pBronson Arroyo v Tommy Milone
Cubs314315@ MIL7:10pEdwin Jackson v Kyle Lohse
Brewers314315v CHC7:10p

Finally, quick bits of history:

  • Today is Aramis Ramirez's 35th birthday, and Plunk Everyone notes that his 103 career HBP are the second most ever for a player born on June 25.
  • Kevin Kimmes of Cream City Cables continued his look at pre-Braves era Milwaukee baseball cards with a profile of 1909 Milwaukee Brewer Shad Barry.

Now, if you'll excuse me, someone spoiled this for me.

Drink up.

Happy birthday, Aramis Ramirez

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Today, as it turns out, could be a pretty big day for Aramis Ramirez. Let's start with the fact that it's his 35th birthday. Hopefully there's cake.

Secondly, though, Ramirez enters play tonight with 1999 career hits. If he plays in tonight's game against the Cubs (likely, because he was off Sunday and the team was off yesterday) and collects a hit, he'll be just the 24th third baseman in MLB history to reach 2000. He'll also be one of just two active players on that list, joining Adrian Beltre (who has 2316 in one of the more underrated careers in recent memory).

If Ramirez can knock out 87 more hits this season he'll climb all the way to 17th on the all-time list at third:

RankPlayerCareer Hits
17Tim Wallach2085
18Scott Rolen2077
19Carney Lansford2074
20Bob Elliott2061
21George Kell2054
22Bill Madlock2008
23Todd Zeile2004

There's something else remarkable about that list of 23 third basemen, though: There's not a single former Brewer on it. The 23 players on that list have appeared in games for 28 different franchises, but none have been a Brewer (or Diamondback). Eddie Mathews is the closest Milwaukee connection, as a former Brave. Paul Molitor had 3319 hits, but played just 43% of his games at third base.

Ramirez is also two RBI away from 1250, which would make him the 13th third baseman to reach that milestone. With six games on the schedule against the Cubs and Pirates, there's a pretty good chance Ramirez will reach 2000 hits and 1250 RBI against one of his former teams this week.

Washington Nationals PDB: The Diamondbacks' Trevor Cahill, Opposing Starter for June 25, 2013

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You've probably seen the biggest news of the day around NatsTown, but Bryce Harper is slated to begin a rehab assignment tonight. Provided he's healthy, there's little better news regarding one player that the team can get during these up-and-down times. And the Taylor Jordan call-up watch is on, too.

There's also a game on the field in Washington. Tonight, the Nationals kick off a three-game home set with the National League West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks. Trevor Cahill takes the mound for the Snakes.

Early Career to Present

Cahill was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft by the Oakland A's. His first extended professional action came as a 19-year-old in the Low-A Midwest League, where over 100 innings the righty approached a 3:1 K/BB ratio and sported a 2.74 FIP.

The 6'4 hurler had a great 2008, pitching at two levels (High-A Stockton and Double-A Midland). Over 124 innings, Cahill earned a 2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 2.72 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His WHIP at High-A Stockton was the second best mark in the league, behind Derek Holland.

John Sickels of SB Nation's Minor League Ball wrote in mid-2008 that

Cahill generates different opinions from scouts and observers. Although his velocity has picked up some (hitting 93 MPH at times this year), he still works mostly in the 89-92 range, not plus velocity, granted his fastball has strong sinking action. His curveball and changeup are both fine offerings, and his intelligence and confidence are big assets.

However, the lack of a big-time massive plus velocity heater causes some to project him as more of a Jeff Suppan control, inning-eating type than a true future ace. Others point out that not every great pitcher has great velocity, and Cahill's intelligence and guile are huge assets. The sabermetric case points to the combination of strikeouts and ground balls as a big positive.

Sickels concluded that he was in the pro-Cahill camp. While he wrote the above thoughts before the righty was promoted to Double-A, Sickels was probably of the same mind after the Californian's performance in Midland.

YearfWAR/rWAR
2009+0.4/+1.8
2010+1.8/+4.0
2011+2.1/+2.7
2012+3.0/+2.6

Ranked the eleventh best prospect in the game by Baseball America after 2008, Cahill could just legally crack a cold one when he debuted in 2009 with Oakland. His strikeout rate, north of 20% in the minors, took a hit on his debut (11.6%). But his performance ticked upward after that. In fact, depending on your WAR metric of choice, it may have continued to do so.

Cahill had a career-low .236 BABIP in 2010, which supported his 2.97 ERA and four-win season. His expected batting average on balls in play that season, though, was .285.

Perhaps capitalizing on Cahill's pedigree and performance to that point, A's GM Billy Beane shipped Cahill to the Diamondbacks for prospects (Jarrod Parker, mainly) in late December 2011.

Cahill's game is ground balls, and he is getting as many as ever this season (58%). On the downside, his strikeouts remain down (16.4%), and his walk rate is below the major league average (8.9%). Yet, his FIP/xFIP remain close to 2012 levels, so he seems to have a decent shot at equaling last year's fWAR.

Pitches, Velocity, Usage, Value

Cahill's main offering is a high-80s sinker, which generates over 60% grounders on balls in play. Fangraphs sees his cutter as a slider; I've substituted that value here.

Pitch

Velocity

Usage

Value

Fourseam

91.0

6%

-1.4

Sinker

89.5

53%

+3.9

Change

82.1

15%

+0.3

Curve

78.9

7%

+1.5

Cutter

87.6

18.6%

-2.2

The 25-year-old's pitches, velo, and usage are actually quite similar to Cliff Lee, who I profiled last week. This is an interesting example of how similar pitches and velocity do not necessarily yield similar results; Lee pounds the strike zone consistently in places where batters can't do damage, while Cahill exhibits inferior control.

Here is Cahill's 2013 situational usage chart. You'll see he favors the sinker early in the count or when the batter is ahead, and then goes more to cutters, curves, and change-ups late against both lefties and righties:

Cahill_usage_medium

I'll look at that cutter usage in a little greater depth shortly.

Batted Ball Profile

As mentioned earlier, Cahill burns a lot of worms. So many, in fact, that he's ranked first the majors in ground ball rate.

Year

GB%

LD%

FB%

HR/FB%

BABIP

2013

58.0%

20.2%

21.8%

10.7%

.286

You'll note his BABIP is more around what we expected from him in 2010. But this year, xBABIP thinks he should be seeing a .314 rate. On the other hand, high ground ball pitchers tend to have lower BABIPs on grounders than the average major league hurler. Cahill is no exception (he's also seeing a much lower BABIP on fly balls, but a higher-than-average number on line drives).

Additional Analysis

The Cutter

Chris Cwik of Fangraphs wrote on April 17 that Cahill had markedly increased his cutter usage in early 2013. While cautioning that no firm conclusions should be made from the small sample and that continued observation would be necessary to fully appreciate Cahill's development, Cwik concluded that

The introduction of a cutter helped Cahill grow as a pitcher last season. Realizing that, he’s started relying on the cutter a lot more this year. Based on how well the pitch helped him last season, this seems like the right strategy. At the very least, the improvement Cahill showed last season should be retainable this year.

Cwik also noted that Cahill's cutter showed greater swing-and-miss upside when compared to his (now apparently abandoned) slider.

Here is how Cahill's cutter was performing on a per-start basis by whiffs/swing in the four starts before Cwik wrote his article:

Plot_bytime_php_medium

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Here's the same graph, but through today. You'll see the whiff rate varies a fair amount by each game:

Plot_bytime_php_medium

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Overall, Cahill has continued to use his cutter more often than he did 2012, and the oscillating whiff rates above add up to a 20.7% swing-and-miss rate. This ranks him 21st among 50 qualified pitchers in the stat.

But, while his cutter wOBA against through April 17 was .232, it currently sits at .353 -- not all that great. So, it has been a mixed bag; as Cwik would likely agree, there's no reason increased usage can't lead to better results long term, once Cahill becomes more comfortable with the pitch.

Ground Ball Pitchers Against Ground Ball-Hitting Teams in 2013

The Nats rank 7th in the majors by ground ball percentage (46.5%), and I was wondering how similarly-high ground ball teams have fared against high-ground ball pitchers. Here is a list of the top five pitchers and teams by ground ball percentage this year:

Rank

Pitcher

GB%

Team

GB%

1

T. Cahill

58.0%

Brewers

48.9%

2

D. Fister

57.2%

Marlins

48.6%

3

A. Cobb

57.1%

Royals

48.3%

4

J. Masterson

57.0%

Reds

46.7%

5

R. Porcello

55.4%

Giants

46.7%

Now, here is how these pitchers did against these teams. At the bottom, I've included both the overall average and the mean for when the hurlers were getting average or better ground ball results.

Starter

Opposing Team

IP

GB% For Game

ER Allowed

Cahill

Giants

8.0

57.1%

1

Cahill

Marlins

8.0

82%

1

Cahill

Giants

3.2

46.7%

8

Cahill

Marlins

1.0*

75%

0

Fister

Royals

8.0

63%

3

Cobb

Royals

5.2

50%

4

Cobb

Royals

4.1**

42.9%

2

Masterson

Royals

6.1

41.2%

7

Masterson

Reds

6.0

64.3%

1

Masterson

Royals

6.1

78.9%

2

Totals

60

60.1% (average)

ERA: 4.35

When > 55% GB Rate

37.1

70.0% (average)

ERA: 1.93

* = relief appearance

** = left game due to injury

When the top five are getting their normal (or better) ground ball rates, the performance of teams that ground out the most is not that great. Don't take this too seriously, of course: The sample size is in several ways small, and some of the points I've selected are fairly arbitrary, among other things.

Conclusions

If batters are plowing the infield through the early innings against Cahill, the Nats may be in a difficult position. What is more, D.C. has seen results that are 5% worse than the major league average when hitting grounders, further demonstrating part of the challenge this evening.

Since it doesn't appear that Washington will strike out a lot (if that happens, they are probably in more trouble), batted ball results and Cahill's control figure to be the likely story lines. Righties happen to hit Cahill marginally better, so don't be surprised if Davey goes with a majority-righty outfield.

Big thanks to Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, and Fangraphs for data, and Crashburn Alley for the wOBA calculator.

Streamer Report: Wednesday's Pitching Streamers

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The Streamer Report provides you with daily startng pitcher streaming selections for owners who prefer to stream starting pitchers on a daily basis. This report identifies starting pitchers who are owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, and who either has a decent track record vs their opponent, has pitched well of late, or has a decent matchup.

Before I get to my streamer selections for Wednesday, here is how my streamer selections performed on Monday:

Esmil Rogers vs Rays - 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, L

Eric Stults vs Phillies - 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 4 K

Combined stats: 13 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Wednesday's Pitching Streamers

Wade Miley vs Nationals

Miley is owned 34.7% of ESPN leagues and faces the struggling Nationals lineup on Wednesday night. The Nationals rank 29th in runs scored this season, and obviously miss Bryce Harper's bat in the lineup. But, guys like Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche have struggled as well, so Miley has a chance to rebound from a non-quality start on Wednesday.

Luis Mendoza vs Braves

Mendoza is not even owned in any ESPN leagues, and I am recommending him for just one start. Yes, the Braves are struggling to score runs of late, and rank 23rd in runs scored in the month of June. This selection is more of riding the trend and is not for the faint of heart.

Scott Feldman vs Brewers

Feldman is owned in 31.3% of ESPN leagues and faces a Brewers lineup that is missing Ryan Braun, and possibly outfielder Carlos Gomez, who injured his shoulder on Sunday making a catch against the wall in center field. Couple that with Aramis Ramirez dealing with a sore knee, and Feldman should be able to bounce back from a rough outing in his last start vs the Cardinals.

Tonight's Matchup: Brewers (Lohse) v Cubs (Jackson)

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The Brewers have six games left in the month of June. If they split those games they'll have had a winning month in April (14-11), another in June (at 14-13) and somehow they'll still be 12 games under .500 overall.

They can take another step towards a positive month tonight with Kyle Lohse (3.68 ERA, 4.28 FIP) on the mound. Lohse received a no-decision against the Astros on Wednesday despite allowing just one run on six hits over six innings. He's posted a 2.08 ERA and thrown a quality start in each of his four outings in June, but has only factored in the decision one time.

Behold, for a moment, the value of throwing strikes. Lohse has walked two batters or less in 13 of his 14 starts in 2013 and has an ERA well under 4 despite allowing a relatively high home run rate (1.37 per nine innings) and being below average in strikeouts (5.7 per nine). He's also thrown six innings or more in ten of his 14 starts despite never throwing more than 108 pitches.

Lohse was a 29th round draft pick for the Cubs all the way back in 1996, but never appeared in a game for them. He's pitched against them 16 times in the majors and has a 5.17 ERA over 87 innings, but has yet to see them this season. Three current Cubs have faced him ten times or more:

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGOPS
Alfonso Soriano58.357.379.6431.022
Starlin Castro20.250.250.250.500
Darwin Barney18.250.235.313.548

He'll face veteran journeyman and familiar foe Edwin Jackson (5.49 ERA, 3.55 FIP), who is having a rough go of things in his first season with his eighth organization. Jackson pitched 5.1 innings against the Cardinals on Wednesday and allowed four runs on six hits, walking two and striking out one.

A quick glance at Jackson's 2013 numbers would suggest he's been a victim of some bad luck this year. Opposing batters are hitting .342 on balls in play against him, up from .308 for his career. That number is up despite the fact that he's getting a lot of ground balls (over 50% of balls in play for the first time since 2006) and his line drive rate is only up slightly. He'll throw a mid-90's faswtball with a lot of sliders and some cutters.

The Brewers faced Jackson twice in April and beat home both times, tagging him for a combined ten runs (six earned) on 12 hits over 12 innings. Six active Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGOPS
Yuniesky Betancourt35.188.229.219.447
Jonathan Lucroy21.350.381.8001.181
Rickie Weeks19.278.316.8331.149
Aramis Ramirez18.353.333.7651.098
Norichika Aoki14.231.286.308.593
Carlos Gomez10.100.100.200.300

As of this writing tonight's lineup has not yet been posted. If you've seen it, please drop it in the comments.

And in the bullpen:

The forecast calls for a game-time temperature around 75 tonight with scattered/isolated thunderstorms as the night goes along. The roof status for tonight is anyone's guess at this point.

Brewers 9, Cubs 3: Remember this Weeks guy?

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Win: Kyle Lohse (3-6)
Loss: Edwin Jackson (3-10)

HR: Francisco (7), Schierholtz (11), Weeks 2 (7,8)

MVP: Rickie Weeks (.232 WPA)
LVP: Logan Schafer (-.080 WPA)

Fangraphs Win Expectancy Graph

With a solid start from Kyle Lohse tonight, the Brewers needed just a little bit of offense to pull out the victory and Rickie Weeks gave them more than enough all by himself. Weeks had a huge night with three hits and two home runs on his way to collecting four RBIs.

The Brewers got on the board first tonight in the second inning. After a groundout from Aramis Ramirez, Juan Francisco connected with a ball that sounded like a popup off the bat and looked like a popup, but somehow managed to get over the wall in right field.

In the very next inning, Nate Schierholtz showed Francisco how you actually hit a home run to right field. After singles from Edwin Jackson and Darwin Barney, Schierholtz deposited a ball over the right field wall. It probably only went 10 feet over the wall, but compared to Francisco's home run the inning before it seemed like a moonshot.

Through the first four innings, the Brewers struggled to do much of anything against Edwin Jackson. The few base runners they managed to put on base were promptly picked off by either Jackson or Welington Castillo. This came to an end in the fifth inning.

Down 3-1, the Brewers gave themselves the lead for good in the fifth inning. Francisco started the inning with a walk and promptly scored on a Rickie Weeks double that got cut off on the warning track. Francisco ran through a stop sign from Ed Sedar and scored mainly because of Cody Ransom's bobble on the relay to home. After a Logan Schafer groundout and wild pitch, Caleb Gindl was able to score Rickie Weeks on a ground ball through the middle with the infield in.

With one out, Lohse bunted over Gindl to second. After an Aoki walk, Jean Segura scored Gindl from second on a double to right field, which Jonathan Lucroy followed with a single to left field to score both Aoki and Segura. When Aramis Ramirez ended the inning with a strikeout, the Brewers had scored five runs and given Lohse all the run support he would need for the evening.

Lohse didn't have his best stuff tonight, but he was able to dance around some trouble in a couple of innings to put together seven quality innings. Lohse gave up three runs on eight hits and zero walks, while also striking out three.

Though six runs would have been enough, Rickie Weeks felt compelled to add some more. In the sixth inning, Weeks hit a laser beam home run to right center that scored Francisco, who was on base for the third time in the game. After a scoreless seventh, Weeks came back up in the eighth inning and crushed a ball to center field for his second home run, third hit, and fourth RBI of the night. What a night for Weeks.

The Brewers will take on the Cubs for the second game of their three game series at Miller Park. Yovani Gallardo will face Scott Feldman, who has put together a nice start to the season with a 3.39 ERA. First pitch is 7:10 p.m.

Today In Brewer History: Cooper's walkoff slam

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On this day in 1977 the Brewers and Mariners played a Sunday matinee at County Stadium. Cecil Cooper batted cleanup for the Crew and entered the ninth having a quiet day, having gone 0-for-3 with a sac fly.

That changed quickly in his final at bat, though. The Brewers trailed by two runs in the bottom of the ninth but Jamie Quirk and Charlie Moore singled and Robin Yount walked to load the bases. Don Money struck out for the second out, but Cooper came to the plate and belted a grand slam to give the Crew a walkoff, 8-6 victory.

The slam was only Cooper's ninth home run as a Brewer and both the first grand slam and walkoff of his career. Mike Caldwell also picked up his first of 102 Brewer wins in the game.

With help from the B-Ref play Index and Brewerfan.net, we'd like to wish a happy birthday to:

Today is also the 16th anniversary of a 1997 trade that sent pitcher Ricky Bones to the Royals, ending his Brewer career. We covered that event in this space last year.

It's also the 42nd anniversary of Marty Pattin pitching a complete game shutout against the Twins in 1971 despite allowing eleven hits. We covered that event in this space two years ago.


Top 100 Indians: #47 Tom Candiotti

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Thomas Caesar Candiotti

Starting Pitcher, 1986-1991, 1999

Height: 6'3" Weight: 205 lbs

Throws: Right

How Acquired (1): Free Agent, December 12, 1985

Left Via (1): Traded with Turner Ward to the Toronto Blue Jays for Mark Whiten, Glenallen Hill and Denis Boucher. June 27, 1991

How Acquired (2): Free Agent, June 29, 1999

Left Via (2): Released, August 2 1999

Tom Candiotti was never named to an All-Star team, despite being on of the ten best pitchers in his league five or six teams, a fitting lack of recognition for a man who pitched almost 3,000 innings in the big leagues after not even being drafted.

Candiotti was born and raised in the Bay Area of northern California, where he attended St. Mary's College. During his four years there, he set school records for single-season and career wins and ERA that stand to this day, but no team thought him worthy of even a late-round pick. Instead, Candiotti found himself playing for the Victoria Mussels, an independent team in the Northwest League. He posted a 2.44 ERA in 70 innings and that winter the Kansas City Royals signed him to a minor league deal.

Candiotti had success for K.C.'s Double-A team in 1980, was chosen by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 1980 Rule 5 draft, and had success for their Double-A team in 1981, but then blew out his elbow. It seemed possible that this would be a career-ending injury, but he became one of the first people to undergo a relatively new type of operation. Candiotti missed the entire 1982 season, but returned in 1983, having success in Triple-A, and on August 8th of that year, he became just the second player ever to pitch in the Major Leagues after having "Tommy John surgery." Coincidentally, in Tom's second career start, the opposing starting pitcher was none other than Tommy John. Candiotti pitched a complete game shutout.

Despite such an impressive beginning, Candiotti had only moderate success with Milwaukee. He spent more time in the minors than with the big league club during 1984 and didn't play in the Majors at all in 1985. At the end of that season, Milwaukee released him. Something else had happened in 1985 too though: Tom began working on a new pitch. Explained Cleveland Indians Vice President Joe Klein, after the team signed him that December, "The fascination with Candiotti is that he now throws a knuckleball."

Candiotti had success in the Puerto Rican Winter League that off-season, leading all pitchers in strikeouts, and won a spot in the Indians rotation. Few players have had as impressive a debut season for the Tribe as Candiotti did that year. He led the team in innings, strikeouts, and ERA. He also threw 3 shutouts that year, including a 3-hit gem against Baltimore in which he struck out 10, and led the American League with 17 complete games.

Tom was the Tribe's Opening Day starter in 1987. His numbers were not as impressive as in the year before, due in large part to a dreadful first half. He rebounded after the All-Star break, with a strong run highlighted by a 1-hit shutout of the Yankees, and managed to lead the team in innings, strikeouts, and ERA again, earning himself another Opening Day nod for 1988. He put up a 3.28 ERA in '88, the best of his career to that point. A mild shoulder injury caused him to miss three weeks in August, but he returned to post an ERA of 2.25 over nine starts following his absence.

Candiotti was again the team's best pitcher in 1989, with an ERA of 3.10. He had the second-best home run rate of any starting pitcher in the AL that season too. Avoiding the long ball had been an important part of his success throughout his years in Cleveland, in 1989 he gave up just 10 in 206 innings. By WAR (Baseball-Refrence or Fangraphs' calculation, take your pick), Candiotti was one of the ten best pitchers in the American League for the third time in four seasons that year, yet few outside of Cleveland seemed to take notice.

He had another strong season in 1990, placing second in just about every significant pitching category for the Tribe and on 1991 he got off to a tremendous start, allowing 2 runs or fewer in 13 of his first 15 starts. His ERA through June 23 sat at 2.24. Four days later he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for a package centered around up-and-coming outfielders Mark Whiten and Glenallen Hill.

While both those players were seen as potential stars (Whiten especially), Indians President Hank Peters admitted that the deal was made for financial reasons. Candiotti was due to hit free agency following the season and had declined a 3-year, $7.2 million contract. The Indians considered that a generous offer, as it would have made him the highest paid player in franchise history (for the record, he was right to turn the deal down, as he eventually inked a 4-year, $15.5 million deal with the Dodgers instead).

Candiotti continued his fantastic season, ending the year with a 2.65 ERA in 238 innings. His not being named an All-Star that season, or receiving any points in the AL Cy Young balloting is a shame (a shame that can be explained, like most overlooked pitching seasons, by a relatively low number of wins). He had 7.1 WAR that year, enough to compete for the league lead. Since 1991, the highest WAR by a non-All Star pitcher is 6.4. Candiotti did at least get to experience the playoffs for the first time, starting Games 1 and 5 of the ALCS for Toronto.

He was a very good pitcher again in 1992 and 1993 (with the Dodgers). By the end of '93 he was 36 years old though, and in 1994 he finally began to decline, serving as a roughly league average pitcher for three more years with L.A. and then one with the Oakland Athletics (1998). In June of 1999, Oakland released him. Two weeks later, he was signed by the Indians. He appeared in 7 games, starting just 2. He allowed 5 runs in each of his final two appearances, neither of which last even two full innings. He was released on August 2 and after making a brief attempt to land a job the following spring, he announced his retirement before the start of the 2000 season.

Following his playing career, Candiotti became a broadcaster, working first for ESPN and the Blue Jays, and now in his 8th season as the radio analyst for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He also became an avid bowler, with a 200+ average and a perfect game on his resume. In 2007 he was inducted to the Professional Bowling Hall of Fame's celebrity wing, the sort of recognition he never really received in baseball. His career WAR of 42.5 is the highest by any pitcher since the creation of the All-Star Game in 1933 never named to the team. Let there be no doubt though, Candiotti was a great pitcher.

YearAgeTmWLERACGIPSOERA+WHIPHR/9BB/9SO/9
198628CLE16123.5717252.11671161.3470.63.86.0
198729CLE7184.787201.2111951.4181.24.25.0
198830CLE1483.2811216.21371251.2830.62.25.7
198931CLE13103.104206.01241281.1800.42.45.4
199032CLE15113.653202.01281071.2971.02.55.7
199133CLE762.243108.1861871.0710.52.37.1
199941CLE1111.05014.211461.7731.84.36.8
CLE (7 yrs)73663.62451201.27641151.2910.83.05.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

American League Leader

  • WAR Pitchers: 4th, 1991 (7.1); 6th, 1988 (5.7); 7th, 1986 (4.9); 9th, 1989 (4.7)
  • ERA: 2nd, 1991 (2.65); 10th, 1986 (3.57); 10th, 1989 (3.10)
  • Wins: 9th, 1986 (16); 10th, 1990 (15)
  • WHIP: 8th, 1989 (1.180); 8th, 1991 (1.155)
  • Hits/9 IP: 9th, 1991 (7.639)
  • Bases on Balls/9 IP: 8th, 1990 (2.451); 10th, 1988 (2.202); 10th, 1989 (2.403)
  • Innings: 6th, 1986 (252.1); 7th, 1991 (238.0)
  • Strikeouts: 8th, 1991 (167)
  • Games Started: 7th, 1986 (34); 7th, 1991 (34)
  • Complete Games: 1st, 1986 (17); 6th, 1988 (11)
  • Shutouts: 4th, 1986 (3); 9th, 1987 (2)
  • Strikeouts/Bases on Balls: 8th, 1990 (2.327); 9th, 1988 (2.585)
  • Home Runs/9 IP: 1st, 1991 (0.454); 2nd, 1989 (0.437); 3rd, 1986 (0.642); 10th, 1988 (0.623)
  • Wild Pitches: 2nd, 1999-13; 4th, 1987-13; 6th, 1986-12; 7th, 1991-11
  • ERA+: 2nd, 1991 (159); 9th, 1989 (128)
  • Range Factor/Game P: 1st, 1989 (2.23); 2nd, 1986 (1.89); 2nd, 1990 (1.90); 5th, 1988 (1.71)

Cleveland Indians Career Leader

  • 19th WAR Pitchers (21.9)
  • 41st ERA (3.62)
  • 26th Wins (73)
  • 32nd WHIP (1.291)
  • 36th Hits/9 IP (8.643)
  • 39th Bases on Balls/9 IP (2.973)
  • t-24th Strikeouts/9 IP (5.722)
  • 24th Innings Pitched (1201.2)
  • 20th Strikeouts (764)
  • 19th Games Started (174)
  • 40th Complete Games (45)
  • t-40th Shutouts (7)
  • 18th Home Runs (103)
  • t-23rd Strikeouts/Bases on Balls (1.924)
  • 4th Wild Pitches (53)
  • t-23rd Hit By Pitch (31)
  • t-22nd ERA+ (115)
  • 21st Win Probability Added (5.8)

Cleveland Indians Season Leader

  • t-50th Pitching WAR (5.7, 1988)
  • t-36th ERA (2.24, 1991)
  • 24th WHIP (1.071, 1991)
  • t-46th Strikeouts (167, 1986)
  • t-20th Home Runs (28, 1987)
  • t-42nd Bases on Balls (106, 1986)
  • 22nd Strikeouts/Bases on Balls (3.071, 1991)
  • t-8th Losses (18, 1987)
  • t-14th Wild Pitches (13, 1987)
  • t-24th Wild Pitches (12, 1986)
  • t-50th Wild Pitches (9, 1990)
  • 5th ERA+ (187, 1991)

Sources:

Baseball-Reference
The Sporting News (multiple issues from 1983-1991)
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Brewers 9, Cubs 3: Same Old, Same Old

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Tuesday was a busy day off the field for the Cubs, with Carlos Marmol being DFA'd, Ian Stewart being released, and Starlin Castro finally getting a day off. Could this be a day that would turn a corner for the beleaguered 2013 team?

Nope. Not in the least. The Cubs got on the field, took a quick 3-1 lead on Nate Schierholtz's towering home run to right field, and then... played like they have in Miller Park for the last three years, losing to the Brewers 9-3.

Edwin Jackson looked pretty good... until he didn't. (He even got a hit, continuing the Cubs-pitchers-can-actually-hit theme of 2013.) The offense looked pretty good... until it pretty much stopped hitting after Schierholtz's homer. Three doubles, one in each of the fourth, fifth and sixth innings, was the entirety of the Cubs offense following that three-run blast. The Cubs had four doubles overall, giving them back the National League lead at 153, and putting them on pace for 330, which would leave them a bit short of the club record of 340.

What is it about Miller Park? As I noted in the preview to this game, the Cubs have played the Brewers basically even at Wrigley Field since the beginning of 2011 (8-9). Yet they are now 3-19 against Milwaukee at Miller Park in that same time frame? Granted, as pointed out by Len and JD on the telecast, the Brewers have the best home record in the National League in that time frame -- though not this year, when they are under .500 at home. Still, you'd think that just by chance the Cubs could win more than three of 22 attempts. Is it the brats? The toll on I-94? (Yes, the Cubs haven't been a good team since the start of 2011. That probably is the biggest factor.)

Schierholtz also made a Reed Johnson-like attempt at leaping over the right-field fence to try to snare Juan Francisco's home run in the second inning. Unlike Reed's leap, which resulted in taking away a possible grand slam from Prince Fielder back in 2009, Francisco's ball was just a little too far for Schierholtz to grab, though it was a worthy effort. Cody Ransom also made a couple of nice defensive plays in his game replacing Castro at shortstop, perhaps showing that he could do this on an occasional basis.

Hector Rondon and Shawn Camp finished up after Jackson departed; Edwin didn't manage to get out of the fifth inning. Both Camp and Rondon surrendered home runs to Rickie Weeks; it might be time to think about having Rondon suffer a bout of Rule 5 Disease and get him on the disabled list, though there might not be a replacement who's any better.

As far as Jackson goes, his ERA now ranks 96th among 97 qualified starters in the major leagues this year. (97th, incidentally, is Dan Haren, who was rumored to be coming to the Cubs for Marmol. What goes around...) I really have no idea what to think about Jackson, but the Cubs are likely now stuck with him for the next three and a half years, because as Jed Hoyer said regarding Marmol:

"We realized in August of last year that we wouldn’t be able to trade him, or acquire any value for him," general manager Jed Hoyer said."He had a really good second half last year on paper. And no one bid at the August deadline, and we never had any offers that were more than just someone else’s undesirable contract for ours. There’s a lot of talk about trade value and things like that, but that was something we had given up on long ago."

We can only hope that Theo & Co. aren't saying the same thing about Jackson three years from now. Or two years. Or next year. You'll also note that the quote about Marmol likely means he'll be released after the 10-day DFA period ends, although Hoyer also said:

"It's possible. We didn't put him on release waivers right away," Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said. "If a team calls and has some ideas … a team may have interest in that context. We weren't getting calls before, (but) sometimes you put a guy out there. That clearly allows for an easier negotiation. We'll see."

This started out as a recap of another loss and has turned into another recap about the team letting Carlos Marmol go. Both of those things are things I'd rather not write too much more about. Perhaps the Cubs can turn around this Miller Park jinx tonight. Scott Feldman will take the mound against Yovani Gallardo.

Corey Hart, the worst first basemen ever, and the wrath of the gods

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In August 1997 I was frustrated with Tony Gwynn. The increasingly chubby perennial batting-title winner entered his age-37 season with nearly 2,600 career hits, and I was already looking forward to his assault on 3,000. The problem was that between baseball playing Russian roulette with strikes and lockouts and Gwynn's frequent injuries, he hadn't played anything like a full season in years. After 1989, Gwynn never played 150 games in a season, and after 1990 he played in 140 games just once in the 11 seasons remaining to him.

Hitting .338 in a 20-year career will certainly speed you along to some big hit totals, but not if you're never on the field. That's why, when the news broke that Gwynn would be sidelined by kidney stones, I felt so frustrated. He was having a great season, hitting over .400 until mid-July, and at .383 there was still a chance he might get back there. Missing time for hamstring pulls, sprained knees, or broken fingers I understood, but kidney stones? "Come on, Tony, man up!" I shouted at my television set.

I was young then, ignorant and stupid. Gwynn missed five days, hit .340 the rest of the way, and finished at .372. As for myself, I had attracted the notice of vengeful gods with my lack of empathy. A few years later I experienced firsthand what having kidney stones is like. For those that haven't had them, a point of comparison might be instructive: I am told that the level of pain is comparable to that of childbirth or a gunshot wound.

I've had them nine times now. I am sorry, Tony, I am so, so sorry.

On Tuesday, Kyle Lobner of our sister site Brew Crew Ball had a thought-provoking post titled, "Can we be honest about Corey Hart?" Due to Hart's slow recovery January knee surgery and Mat Gamel's own season-ending knee injury, the Brewers have had to do without a first baseman all season. I should say they have chosen to do without one, giving the bulk of the playing time to nominal shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. This sort-of worked for a while, but Betancourt soon returned to his more typical, non-hitting form. More recently, the team has been going with former Braves third baseman Juan Francisco. The latter at least has the distinction of having been a productive hitter in the past, if not by the standards of first base. Alas, he hasn't hit at all for the Brewers, and as a group the team's first basemen were hitting an incredible .180/.222/.284 heading into Tuesday's games. Juan Francisco's 2-for-3 with a home run against the Cubs doesn't dramatically change that state of affairs.

For more on Milwaukee matters possibly not pertaining to Corey Hart, visit Brew Crew Ball

Take a moment to savor that number. It doesn't speak to the incompetence of any of the six players who have compiled it, but rather to the sheer negligence of an organization that had a couple of injuries and couldn't find a way to shift a bat even half-worthy of the position over from another position, trade for someone else's Triple-A journeyman first baseman (I realize he's failed at every chance he's been given to hit the majors, but flagging down Kila Ka'aihue on his way to Japan would even have been worth a try), or even giving a shot to of their own minor leaguers, no matter how inadequate they might seem under normal conditions. Prospect Hunter Morris is hitting only .238/.333/.475 at Triple-A, but it's hard to believe he could be worse than what the Brewers have had.

This is not the only reason the Brewers are 31-43 -- pitching is a problem too -- but it's a part of it. It's basically the worst performance at first base since the dawn of time (or Ike Davis, who is timeless).

Ike Davis (Jim McIsaac)

There's nothing remotely controversial about Lobner's post-- any frustration is mostly between the lines -- which merely relates the latest news on Hart: Six months after surgery, he isn't anywhere near returning and that the possibility of his missing the entire season cannot be dismissed. In the original news story, Tom Haudricourt describes Hart as "dejected" and "an extremely frustrated individual." It's easy to see how Brewers fans would feel the same given what they've had to deal with in his absence. First base is one of the most important offensive positions on the diamond, and even if Hart was only going to miss six weeks, once Gamel was no longer an option that was six weeks too many to go with soup du jour instead of a qualified hitter.

Hart's knee problems have been strangely timed two seasons in a row. He missed much of spring training 2012 after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, but he was ready in time for the start of the regular season. This year, that same knee swelled during offseason workouts, and surgery was performed in January, with a projected return date four to six weeks into the season. That has obviously proved to be over-optimistic.

Still, I hope that Brewers fans can have some patience with him for however long he remains with the organization (he's a free agent at the end of the season). Medicine is often an imprecise science, orthopedic medicine more so. At the risk of bringing down the wrath of that sector of the medical profession, over the years I've sought treatment for various injuries in the bone ‘n' muscle line, and if you come in with something short of an outright break, there's often quite a bit of hand-waving as part of the diagnosis and plan of treatment. Here's a soft cast, a heating pad, a prescription for rehab. I got the latter after severely straining my back. I enjoyed the heck out of it. It was like going to a spa -- 15 minutes of heat applied to my back, followed by a deep massage. After that I had to do some stretching, which was kind of like exercise and therefore not quite as much fun, but still, if my insurance hadn't decided that something like 110 visits was really quite enough treatment of one injury I might still be going three times a week.

If only I could have gotten them to come to my house. And bring donuts. That would have been perfect.

But was my back all better at the end of all that? Only somewhat. When I fractured my knee in an ill-advised collision with a wall, when I fell down the stairs and landed on my ankle, bending it at a 45-degree angle to the rest of my leg, did the doctor give me a definite point in time at which I'd feel better? Nope. How long did it take? Both bothered me for years afterwards.

As the foregoing suggests, I wasn't rehabbing with quite the same intensity we would expect of a professional baseball player, which is one of the reasons why Hart's recovery timeline was projected in weeks and months rather than years. It hasn't worked out that way for Hart -- later on Tuesday, Hardricourt provided a further Hart update, reporting that the first baseman's ostensibly good knee is now troubling him. Brewers assistant general manager Gord Ash told Hardricourt that, "One [bad knee] prevents you from working on the other." Hart is not only failing to get better, he's going backwards.

Sometimes these things happen, and questioning them can lead to madness. In June 1987, Rickey Henderson, whose game was built around his legs, badly injured a hamstring. Initially projected to be out only a short time, he missed most of a month. Under pressure from his manager and the media, he came back too soon, played badly, and reinjured the leg, missing another month. The entire season became less about the pursuit of the postseason than a referendum on Henderson's injury -- was it real or was he "jaking it." Popular opinion seemed to favor the latter interpretation.

In light of the tenacious way Henderson hung on to his career, playing until he was a 44-year-old shadow of himself, that assessment seems misguided. Even at the time, some questioned whether there was an element of racism inherent in that reaction. I would prefer to think that it was just frustration at knowing how good Henderson was, how much the team's place at the standings depended on his being in the lineup, and having him miss so many games despite the fact that, on the surface, he seemed just fine -- there was no cast, no surgery, just a guy saying that it hurt too much to play. You just had to take his word for it, and some found that they could not.

Hart's situation has no such ambiguity. There was a surgery and a rehab that somehow failed to conform to expectations. For all our advancements in medicine, there's still a good deal of ambiguity to how things work (for an example, see this week's New Yorker about how little we know about the way to treat Lyme Disease). That Doug Melvin and associates took those projections so seriously that they were lulled into a fatal inaction at first base, the most important offensive position, well, that's not on Hart or medicine, that's on them.

To blame anyone else would be hubris, and hubris leads to your getting kidney stones over and over again. Yes, the universe really works that way. Trust me; I know.

More from SB Nation:

Brian Cashman: A-Rod should "shut the (bleep) up"

Kemp makes game-winning catch, is awesome

A brief history of Carlos Marmol and the Cubs

MLB trade deadline basics

Alex Gordon attacked by moth

Brisbee: Should Puig make the NL All-Star team?

Poll: Anyone but Yuni can play first base

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This week's Brew Crew Ball Tracking Poll was open from Monday afternoon through Tuesday, and received 202 responses. Here are some notable results:

  • Voters were split on who should be the Brewers' primary starter at first base. Juan Francisco was the leader with 35% of the vote but Hunter Morris (19%), Sean Halton (12%) and Jeff Bianchi (10%) also all received at least ten percent.
  • Just four of the poll's 202 responders voted for Yuniesky Betancourt, which puts him behind all five other candidates, "Someone else" and "undecided."
  • Approval ratings remained roughly steady across the board this week, and 57% of voters still think the Brewers should fire pitching coach Rick Kranitz.
  • This week was the first time we've asked for an opinion on scouting director Bruce Seid, and about 27% of voters said he should be fired.

The full results are below.

Which of these candidates would you choose to be the Brewers' primary starter at first base?

ResponseVotes%
Yuniesky Betancourt42%
Jeff Bianchi2110%
Juan Francisco7135%
Hunter Morris3919%
Martin Maldonado157%
Sean Halton2412%
Someone else199%
Undecided94%

Do you approve of the decision to outright Chris Narveson to AAA when he was ready to come off the DL?

ResponseVotes%
Yes12260%
No4522%
Undecided3517%

Do you approve of the job Doug Melvin is doing as General Manager of the Brewers?

ResponseVotes%PrevDiff
Yes11858%61%-3%
No5527%26%+1%
Undecided2914%12%+2%

Do you approve of the job Ron Roenicke is doing as Manager of the Brewers?

ResponseVotes%PrevDiff
Yes10050%52%-2%
No6331%31%n/c
Undecided3919%17%+2%

Do you approve of the job Rick Kranitz is doing as Pitching Coach of the Brewers?

ResponseVotes%PrevDiff
Yes4623%20%+3%
No12361%58%+3%
Undecided3316%23%-7%

Do you approve of the job Johnny Narron is doing as Hitting Coach of the Brewers?

ResponseVotes%PrevDiff
Yes11959%61%-2%
No4221%17%+4%
Undecided4120%23%-3%

Do you think and of the following coaches/executives should be fired?

Voters were allowed to select more than one.

ResponseVotes%PrevDiff
General manager Doug Melvin3718%21%-3%
Manager Ron Roenicke4321%18%+3%
Pitching coach Rick Kranitz11657%60%-3%
Hitting coach Johnny Narron2914%12%+2%
Amateur scouting director Bruce Seid5427%n/an/a
Someone else105%7%-2%
None of these5427%29%-2%

Do you still think the Brewers have a realistic chance to make the playoffs?

ResponseVotes%PrevDiff
Yes136%16%-10%
No18089%80%+9%
Undecided94%4%n/c

Tonight's Matchup: Brewers (Gallardo) v Cubs (Feldman)

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Fourth place isn't good, but it beats being tied for fourth place.

The Brewers will hang onto sole possession of "not last" in the NL Central if they get a win from Yovani Gallardo (4.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP), who has been hot lately. Gallardo pitched seven innings against the Astros on Thursday and allowed three runs, but they were all unearned. Gallardo has gone 19 innings without allowing an earned run.

Gallardo is getting an extra day of rest before today's start (thanks to Monday's off day), and his recent numbers would suggest that may not be a good thing. He has a 3.27 ERA in ten starts on four days' rest this season, compared to a 5.81 mark in five starts with an extra day. Over the course of his career, though, he's been much better on five days' rest.

Gallardo has faced the Cubs 14 times in his career, but this is the first time he's pitched against them this season. Four current Cubs have faced him ten times or more:

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGOPS
Starlin Castro31.393.419.500.919
Alfonso Soriano26.160.192.320.512
Darwin Barney21.100.143.100.243
Nate Schierholtz14.231.286.308.593

He'll face 30-year-old Hawaiian native Scott Feldman (3.39 ERA, 3.91 FIP), who has pitched pretty well in his first season as a Cub. Feldman got knocked around a bit on Thursday, though, allowing five runs on six hits over 5.1 innings against the Cardinals.

Feldman is the kind of pitcher you could use to make the case that the AL is a superior league. He had a 4.81 ERA in eight seasons as a Ranger and a 5.09 mark last season before coming to the NL and pitching well. He's also on pace to pitch over 180 innings this season, and he's only done that once before in the majors. He throws a 90 mph fastball but also a lot of cutters and curves.

The Brewers beat Feldman on April 21, scoring four runs on just three hits over five innings, but only one of those runs was earned. The only current Brewer who has seen him ten times or more is Yuniesky Betancourt, who is hitting .333/.333/.500 over 18 plate appearances.

As of this writing tonight's lineup had not been posted. If you've seen it, please drop it in the comments.

And in the bullpen:

  • Michael Gonzalez pitched one inning (14 pitches) last night, and also pitched on Sunday.
  • Burke Badenhop pitched one inning (14 pitches) last night.
  • Tom Gorzelanny, Jim Henderson and Brandon Kintzler last pitched on Sunday.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford and Donovan Hand last pitched on Saturday.

The forecast in Milwaukee calls for partly cloudy conditions this evening with a game time temperature around 75. Expect the roof to be open on a beautiful night for baseball.

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