We're talking about the first spring training workout and more in today's roundup of all things Brewers.

Some things to read while getting in over your head.

Today is Day 3 of spring training and the team will be on the field this morning for the first official workout of the 2014 season. All the pitchers and catchers are in attendance (and the Brewers tumblr has visual evidence) with a couple of notable exceptions: Miguel De Los Santos, who spent all of 2013 on the restricted list and apparently remains unavailable, and Francisco Rodriguez, who is dealing with a visa issue (h/t @AdamMcCalvy).

You may recall that Rodriguez also had visa issues when he re-signed with the Brewers last season, leading to him missing a large chunk of what was supposed to be a 30-day trial in the minors. He's not expected to report for another 7-10 days, which means he'll show up sometime around the first Cactus League game.'

Position players aren't required to report until Friday and I haven't heard if Jean Segura is in camp yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is. Over the weekend Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reported that the Brewers are expected to talk to their young shortstop about a possible extension this spring. Adam McCalvy (via Twitter) says the Brewers also made Segura an offer last spring, and J.P. Cadorin of Time Warner Cable SportsChannel (also via Twitter) says he doesn't understand the rush to lock him up.

The more interesting part of Cotillo's story may actually have been the second note, though: He says the Brewers are not discussing any kind of long-term extension with Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo's contract expires following this season but the Brewers hold an option for 2015.

Meanwhile, BCB Community #1 prospect Jimmy Nelson is in camp competing for a spot on the Opening Day roster. Kelsie Heneghan of MiLB.com has a Q&A with him about life on the fringe of the major leagues. (h/t @Mass_Haas)

Nelson is probably a long shot to open the season in the starting rotation, but he could also have a shot in the bullpen. Curt Hogg of Disciples of Uecker has a breakdown of the competition for the final spots, and Ryan Connor of Reviewing the Brew listed the bullpen as one of five things to watch this spring.

Elsewhere in long shots, we have Rule 5 pick Wei-Chung Wang. Adam McCalvy talked to Wang about learning he was coming to the Brewers and attempting to make the jump from rookie ball to the majors.

Alfredo Figaro made five starts for the Brewers in 2013, but in 2014 his only shot to make the roster will likely come as a reliever. Over the weekend The Brewer Nation profiled him as part of their "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series.

Donovan Hand also made seven starts for the Brewers last season, but found himself bumped off the 40-man roster when the team recently added Francisco Rodriguez. Hand told Adam McCalvy he was surprised to find himself on the outside looking in, but still loves the organization and wants to work his way back up the ladder.

Figaro and Hand were bumped from the rotation conversation by the emergence of several younger candidates and the addition of Matt Garza. On Friday Jordan attempted to project the 2014 performance of Garza and the rest of the top end of the rotation. Adam McCalvy also has a preview of the rotation.

Marco Estrada is projected to be a part of the back end of the rotation, but at least one analyst isn't optimistic about his work. Baseball by Paul has a profile of the 30-year-old right hander and gave his mechanics an F grade.

The Brewers' exhibition schedule opens a week from Thursday as the Brewers head to Phoenix Municipal Stadium to take on the A's. They'll play their first home game in Maryvale on March 1 against the Dodgers, and our Tweet of the Day shows that the field is ready:

Field at Maryvale Baseball Park looking beautiful as always! Home opener March 1 vs. LA. #Brewerspic.twitter.com/FSIIH1agjE

— Mike Vassallo (@MikeVassallo13) February 16, 2014

Once the Brewers hit the field, though, it'll be time to start wondering how much these results actually matter. Evan Kendall of Beyond the Box Score has a look at several teams who have been above .500 in the spring in recent seasons, including the Brewers.

One of the new Brewers looking to prove themselves this spring will be former Red and Pirate Zach Duke, another candidate for one of the final spots in the bullpen. Adam McCalvy has a story on Duke's attempt to join his third NL Central team.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Lucroy is all but assured a spot on the roster, freeing him up to spend the spring working to improve. Todd Rosiak says Lucroy is trying to step up defensively in 2014 and working to adjust a flaw in his throwing mechanics.

In the minors:

• As of this writing Mitch Haniger leads the field by around 30 votes for the fourth spot in our BCB Community Prospect Rankings. That poll will close at noon today and we'll ask for your help selecting #5 around 1.
• Jason Arndt of Brewers Farm Report has a profile of first baseman Garrett Cooper, a sixth round pick who made his professional debut in 2013.
• Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio has photos of a snowy Neuroscience Group Field at Fox Cities Stadium with less than seven weeks remaining until Opening Day.

Back in Milwaukee, the Brewers are reaching out to 2013 ticket holders to encourage them to come back to Miller Park for 2014. Robert J. Baumann of NotGraphs was one of many fans to receive a valentine and a gold ball from Carlos Gomez, throwing him into a bit of a mental quandary.

The Brewers may be planning on using that ticket money to buy a going away gift for Derek Jeter. Adam Wieser of Disciples of Uecker has a look at some of the things the Brewers could get for the longtime Yankees shortstop.

Of course, no one knows the Brewers' financial plans better than COO Rick Schlesinger. He sat down with Adam McCalvy to talk about the team, economics and long term expectations.

Not everyone who's getting ready for the 2014 season is doing so in Arizona: Steve Kabelowsky of OnMilwaukee.com has a story on Brewers Spanish play-by-play man Andy Olivares, who expects to call around 30 telecasts this season.

If you weren't around the site this weekend you might have missed JP's weekly look at what we learned over the last seven days. We're past the late-winter lull and moving full speed ahead into spring now.

Around baseball:

Athletics: Avoided arbitration with outfielder Josh Reddick (one year, $2.7 million).
Braves: Signed closer Craig Kimbrel to a four-year, $42 million extension with a club option for 2018 and starter Julio Teheran to a six-year, $32.4 million extension.
Cubs: Signed infielder Emilio Bonifacio to a minor league deal.
Indians: Won their arbitration case with reliever Josh Tomlin, who will receive $800,000 in 2014 and signed pitcher Aaron Harang to a minor league deal.
Mariners: Avoided arbitration with first baseman Justin Smoak (one year, $2.675 million with a vesting option for 2015).
Nationals: Signed reliever Josh Roenicke to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Claimed outfielder Jimmy Paredes off waivers from the Marlins.
Phillies: Designated pitcher Joe Savery for assignment.
Rangers: Avoided arbitration with first baseman Mitch Moreland (one year, $2.65 million).
Red Sox: Announced that pitcher Ryan Dempster will not play in 2014, avoided arbitration with pitcher Andrew Miller (one year, $1.9 million) and signed reliever Francisco Cordero to a minor league deal.
Reds: Pitcher Mat Latos' status for Opening Day is uncertain following surgery to repair his meniscus.

Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter) notes that the Brewers made a push to sign Dempster before the 2013 season.

Today in former Brewers:

• Our best wishes go out this morning to Hank Aaron, who had to have partial hip replacement surgery after falling on the ice in Atlanta recently. He's expected to make a full recovery.
• Over the weekend the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers announced that Rollie Fingers, Gorman Thomas, Jim Slaton, Rob Deer and Bernie Carbo will be making appearances at Neuroscience Group Field this season as part of the team's "Brewers Sundays" promotion.
• Justin Klugh of Philly.com has a look into Bob McClure's philosophy as the Phillies' new pitching coach. (h/t BBTF)

Today's quintessential spring training story comes from the Reds, where Mark Sheldon of MLB.com has a look at their policies on facial hair.

Today in baseball economics:

• TaxaBall has a look at how different states handle income taxes on athletes, and shows how Arizona's tax laws can save hundreds of thousands of dollars for players training in the Cactus League. (h/t @Mass_Haas)
• When the Dodgers underwent an ownership change in 2012 one of their first moves was to reduce the price of parking outside Dodger Stadium from $15 to $10. This year they're moving it back to $15.

With help from the B-Ref Play Index, we'd like to wish a happy birthday today to:

• 2012 Brewer Cody Ransom, who turns 38.
• Milwaukee native and UW-Madison alum Mike Hart, who turns 56. Hart played in the majors as a member of the 1984 Twins and 1987 Orioles.
• 1981-83 Brewer Jamie Easterly, who turns 61.
• Kenosha, Wisconsin native Dick Bosman, who turns 70. Bosman played eleven MLB seasons between 1966-76 as a member of the Washington Senators and two other clubs. We covered his birthday in Today in Brewer History last year.

Plunk Everyone also notes that Bosman's 34 hit batsmen are the third most ever for a pitcher born on February 17, and Easterly's 16th are the fourth most.

Today is also the 15th anniversary of free agent first baseman John Jaha signing with the A's, effectively ending his Brewers career. We covered that event in Today In Brewer History two years ago.

Finally, time seems to be flying by this winter, so a couple of weeks ago I missed a minor milestone. Friday, February 7 was the sixth anniversary of the first Frosty Mug. Thanks to everyone who has made BCB a part of their day over the last six years and kept this thing going.

Now, if you'll excuse me, it's almost my next anniversary.

Drink up.

New BCB contributor Derek Harvey debuts today with a recap of his work on the Brewer payroll for 2014 and beyond.

EDITOR'S NOTE: It's my pleasure this afternoon to introduce Derek Harvey as our newest contributor. Readers of the Frosty Mug may know Derek from his work at The Book of Gorman, and many of you likely also follow him on Twitter @D_J_Harvey. What follows is his debut post. - KL

With Spring Training drawing nigh, and my new role here at Brew Crew Ball, I thought it made sense to consolidate my previous works on roster and payroll. There are a few roster spots that will be finalized during spring training, but that shouldn't affect my payroll projection. I believe Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Rodriguez, Will Smith, and Tom Gorzelanny (health aside) are guaranteed spots in the bullpen. There has been some debate as to where Tyler Thornburg's talents are best used. Some people want him starting in Nashville so he's stretched out in case the Brewers need him to start. I think being "stretched out" is a bit overrated, but that's another discussion altogether. I'm pretty confident that Thornburg will be in the bullpen, and I think that's for the best if the plan is to compete this year.

The final bullpen spot will go to 1 of a number of relievers including: Rob Wooten, Michael Blazek, Alfredo Figaro, Donovan Hand, Jose De La Torre, David Goforth, Zach Duke, Mike Fiers, and Wei-Chung Wang. I have my favorites but it's probably not going to matter that much. Whichever relievers do end up winning those two spots will make the league minimum so in a payroll sense they're interchangeable. The starting rotation is pretty self evident. I've seen it suggested that Thornburg or even Smith might win a spot over Marco Estrada. I like them, but barring injury there is no chance Estrada isn't in the rotation. When healthy he's a solid number 3 starter. You can't put that in the bullpen because you want to see what Thornburg or Smith can do. Not in a season where you're trying to compete.

I've also read comments from Ron Roenicke that suggested left field hasn't been decided yet. I give that a "wink" and "sure thing Ron." I think this more of a motivational tactic than a reality. As far as I'm concerned there is no chance Khris Davis isn't starting in left. His potential is too far above what Caleb Gindl offers.

The one crazy thing I've seen talked about that I believe has half a chance of becoming a reality is trading Rickie Weeks. Having two platoons in the infield is going to be difficult and it's likely going to limit the depth in the outfield. Weeks is also going to make a lot of money for a weak-sided platoon player. The desire to trade Weeks is going to be there, the question is if they can find a buyer. The Dodgers and Yankees immediately come to mind.

If they don't trade Weeks, I fully expect Scooter Gennett to be the main starter. This also seems to be up for debate for some reason. I get that $11 million is a lot to pay for a bench player, but Weeks is getting that money no matter what. It's a sunk cost. Better to allocate skills to the roles that best suit them. Unfortunately for Weeks, and that place in my heart he'll always occupy, based on his performance over the past two years that means he's on the bench. I might sound kind of negative here but, I actually rather like the idea of a platoon with the two players, in a vacuum. I think they can get 2+ wins out of that.

The other platoon, and the last roster spot question mark, comes at first base. Don't let Mark Reynolds' minor league deal fool you. He's making the roster (sorry Sean Halton). The question surrounds his platoon partner. I think it's going to be Juan Francisco. I believe at this point in their careers, Francisco can handle RHP better than Lyle Overbay. He has the last two years. If Francisco truly has improved his swing, we could even see better results than his career 109 wRC+ vs RHP. Another point in his favor is his ability to play third base. He might not be a good defender there, but that's worlds away from simply not being able to play it at all (see Braun circa 2007). Francisco is also relatively cheap and potentially under team control through 2017. I think the only thing Overbay offers over Francisco is the ability to better field the position (that and veteran presence). First base defense is probably a little underrated, but I'm not sure it's worth losing Francisco.

That's the major point against Overbay. He's on a minor league deal so the Brewers would have to DFA someone off the 40-man roster to make room for him. They can't have all three of them on the 25-man roster and Francisco doesn't have any options left so it would almost certainly be him. I'm not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on Francisco just yet. I know I'm not. Unless Overbay has an opt-out in his contract, he should start the year in AAA to provide depth should the need arise.

Now that I've explained my rationale for why I chose certain players over others here is my roster projection with salary figures:

The total payroll for the roster comes to approximately $96,375,000. Most of the contract information comes from Cot's Contracts, except for the players making $500,000. That's just what league minimum is. Some of those players may make several thousand over the minimum, but the amount is negligible when we're talking about tens of millions of dollars.

The one player whose contract seems to be the most confusing is Aramis Ramirez. He is technically making $16 million this year. However, $6 million of that is deferred until 2017-2018. Garza's contract also includes deferred money. He makes $12.5 million each year of his contract, but each year $2 million is deferred and he can make another $1M in incentives per year. Ryan Braun's salary is $10 million but he gets another $2.5 million from a signing bonus. It's also important to note that my payroll projection does include the possible incentives for Estrada, Rodriguez, Reynolds, and Garza. The total amount from those incentives is $2.15 million.

In case you're interested, here's how the payroll breaks down (with percentages):

A brief glimpse into the future:

Next year Mark Reynolds, Tom Gorzelanny, and Francisco Rodriguez will become free agents. That's around $9 million off the books. Rickie Weeks and Yovani Gallardo each have team options. Aramis Ramirez has a mutual option. That's potentially another $30 million (after buyouts) off the books. Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Jonathan Lucroy each receive raises which totals only $4 million. Marco Estrada, Juan Francisco, Martin Maldonado, Brandon Kintzler, and Alfredo Figaro will be arbitration eligible. Of that group only Estrada and possibly Francisco will get notable raises.

All things considered, the Brewers could have around $30 million dollars to spend. It's not unreasonable to think they could, for better or worse, be surprise spenders. Free agency can often be filled with fool's gold and time bombs, but some of that has to do with size of contract and some with expectations. There can be real upgrades for this team to be had. This is a long way off and the free agent class could change, but if Chase Headley is still available, I wouldn't be shocked to see them go after him. Neither would I expect it though. My guess is they pick up the option for Ramirez and Gallardo while letting Weeks walk. In that case, they'll probably only have around $10-15 million to spend. Still, with few holes to fill, it would be interesting to see how they spend that money too. They may look to lock up young talent like Segura if they haven't already.

Looking past 2015, some of that money is going to be allocated to players that may no longer be with the Brewers. Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse, and Matt Garza have all had money from their present contracts deferred to a later date. Here is how that breaks down:

Who is the fifth best prospect in the Brewers organization?

The BCB Community came together over the weekend and almost 40% of them selected Mitch Haniger as the #4 prospect in the Brewers organization. Here are our community rankings so far:

1. Jimmy Nelson (57% of the vote)
2. Tyrone Taylor (65% of the vote)
3. Victor Roache (40% of the vote)
4. Mitch Haniger (39% of the vote)

Here are your candidates for #5:

(For a full explanation of what we're doing here, check out the first post in the series.)

Orlando Arcia, SS
Age: 19
Top level reached in 2013: Low-A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 486 PA, .251/.314/.333, 4 HR, 20 SB, 9 CS, 35 BB, 40 K

Highest positions in other rankings:

David Goforth, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 46.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 18 BB (3.5 BB/9), 36 K (6.9 K/9)
Brevard County (A+): 78.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 28 BB (3.2 BB/9), 58 K (6.7 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 12 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 4 BB (3 BB/9), 15 K (11.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Johnny Hellweg, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: MLB

2013 stats:

Milwaukee (MLB): 30.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.152 WHIP, 26 BB (7.6 BB/9), 9 K (2.6/9)
Nashville (AAA): 125.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.464 WHIP, 81 BB (5.8/9), 89 K (6.4/9)
Wisconsin (A): 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2 BB (3.0/9), 4 K (6.0/9)

Highest positions in other rankings:

Taylor Jungmann, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 139.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 73 BB (4.7 BB/9), 82 K (5.3 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 2.180 WHIP, 7 BB (8.6 BB/9), 7 K (8.6 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Devin Williams, RHP
Age: 19
Top level reached in 2013: Rookie (Arizona)

2013 stats:

Arizona (Rookie): 34.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 22 BB (5.7 BB/9), 39 K (10.1 K/9)

Highest positions in other rankings:

Garza was on vacation with his wife and didn't want to be bothered when the Angels' deal came in.

Matt Garza may have signed with the Angels if it wasn't for a vacation with his wife.

According to MLB's Adam McCalvy, Los Angeles offered Garza a four-year contract worth $52 million when he was on vacation with his wife in Turks and Caicos. Garza didn't want to discuss the new deal, and when he failed to respond to the Angels in a timely manner, they pulled the offer.

More from our team sites

Milwaukee Brewers

Follow

"They offered, but it was more of a weird situation," said Garza, who wound up getting $50 million in guaranteed money from Milwaukee. "I was on vacation with my wife and I didn't want to be disturbed, and it was like, ‘Here it is, we'll pull it in a certain amount of hours.' I didn't have a chance to respond, so I just said, ‘Whatever. It is what it is.'"

He added: "It wasn't anything big. It was an offer and I said, ‘I'm on vacation. I'm not thinking about baseball, Dude. Me and my wife are enjoying ourselves.'"

Garza said he wasn't worried when the offer was pulled and knew he would eventually sign elsewhere. The veteran starter would eventually sign for $50 million over four years with the Brewers, joining what should be a pretty good rotation that features Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse.

On one hand, it's easy to see why Garza didn't want to be bothered. He dedicates nearly all of his time to baseball, and he has little free time to spend with his wife. At the same time, it is 52 million dollars. It must be nice to turn that kind of money down and know you will be just fine.

More from SB Nation MLB:

• Craig Kimbrel's extension a win-win signing for Braves

• Daily inspirational texts from the Astros’ skipper

• Arbitration: A necessary evil

• Derek Jeter, the last captain of New York

• Remembering former All-Star and manager Jim Fregosi

Think warm thoughts and join Kyle and Downtown Ollie Burrows to talk Brewers.

Across much of Wisconsin it's hardly safe to go outside right now, so settle in someplace warm and think spring as we talk about the Milwaukee Brewers.

I'll be stopping by The Sports Den with Downtown Ollie Burrows on Sports Fan 100.5 in Wausau at 6:30 tonight to talk about the first few days of spring training. If you're not in north central Wisconsin or you simply prefer to listen this way, you can also listen in online.

Check it out live, or check tomorrow's Mug for a link to the archived audio.

We're looking at an early set of dispatches from Maryvale in today's roundup of all things Brewers.

Some things to read while chasing a raccoon.

Today is day four of spring training and as pitchers and catchers hit the field yesterday there was only one player limited by injury: Tom Gorzelanny continues to rehab from offseason shoulder surgery but could still be ready for Opening Day. Brad Johnson of FanGraphs listed Gorzelanny (and former Brewer Doug Davis) among the 13 candidates to be the pitcher who did the most with the least.

Rickie Weeks isn't in camp yet but he's expected to be at full speed when he reports after having hamstring surgery last season. Weeks likely has a tough road ahead of him as he works to regain the confidence of the coaches and fans.

Yovani Gallardo also has work to do this spring to prove that his career-worst 2013 season was an outlier. His contract could expire if the Brewers choose not to exercise his option following the season, but he told Adam McCalvy that continuing to improve, not getting a new deal, is his priority.

One of the luxuries of being an established player in big league camp is that you can work on improving an area of your game instead of focusing on results to win a job. Jim Henderson is all but assured a spot this spring, and he told @AdamMcCalvy he plans to work on improving his arsenal against left handed hitters. Lefties have hit .256/.353/.417 off Henderson in 186 career plate appearances.

Matt Garza is another veteran assured a spot this spring, but he was almost assured a spot in Angels camp. Yesterday he added some details to the story about having turned down an offer from Anaheim earlier this winter, telling Adam McCalvy the offer came while he was on vacation and was off the table before he returned.

Other notes from camp:

• Tom Haudricourt reports (via Twitter in two parts) that Lyle Overbay, Sean Halton, Hunter Morris, Taylor Green, Mitch Haniger, Logan Schafer, Caleb Gindl, Khris Davis and Jeff Bianchi are among the position players who reported to camp early. They're not required to be there until Friday.
• Haudricourt talked to Overbay about being back in Brewers camp for the first time in almost a decade.
• He also talked to Tyler Thornburg, who is saying all the right things about the Matt Garza signing.
• Todd Rosiak has pictures of Matt Garza and Wei-Chung Wang throwing bullpen sessions.
• The Brewers tumblr account has a Vine video of pitchers and catchers doing their thing while someone goes crazy with an air horn.
• ASU student Lauren Guzman of the JS has a photo essay of shots around Maryvale Baseball Park.

Meanwhile, one of the big stories out of camp is likely to be Jean Segura's contract situation. Yesterday we mentioned a report that the team is expected to offer him a long term deal this spring, but yesterday Doug Melvin told @Haudricourt that no talks had started. Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker has a look at what a potential Segura extension could look like, and at Baseball Analytics Alec Dopp has a look at the ground balls that got him into trouble down the stretch last season.

If the Brewers do work out a deal with Segura, it'll likely impact these numbers. Yesterday Derek Harvey made his BCB front page debut with a recap of his winter's work on payroll projections for the short and long term. We're excited to have Derek on board.

Odds are we're going to spend much of the next six weeks speculating about the Opening Day lineup, and David Schoenfield of ESPN got us started with a setup that has Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez batting in front of Ryan Braun. He also suggests that if this doesn't work the Brewers could consider moving Gomez up and batting Jonathan Lucroy second.

In the minors:

• As of this writing Johnny Hellweg leads by just two votes in the balloting to determine the #5 prospect in our community rankings. You have until noon today to cast your vote, and the poll for the #6 spot will open around 1.
• Steve Clark of the Oshkosh Northwestern has a story on Wisconsin native and 2013 draft pick Josh Uhen, who had a hard time finding ways to train outside this winter before heading to Arizona.

If you're getting ready to climb on the Brewers bandwagon at this point, there's a bit more room this morning. Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times is applauding one fan for refusing to go to games since the Brewers refuse to release Ryan Braun. Jaymes Langrehr nails it in our Tweet of the Day:

People who won't go to games because of Braun also wouldn't go to games if the Brewers were in last place while paying him to play elsewhere

— Jaymes Langrehr (@JaymesL) February 18, 2014

If you'd like more Brewers coverage today but you're sick of reading, my Monday appearance on The Sports Den with Downtown Ollie Burrows on Sports Fan 100.5 in Wausau has been archived and can be heard here. My spot starts at the 1:31:30 mark.

Around baseball:

Athletics: Claimed pitcher Joe Savery off waivers from the Phillies.
Orioles: Signed pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to a four year, $50 million contract and designated outfielder Jimmy Paredes for assignment.
Royals: Claimed outfielder Jimmy Paredes off waivers from the Orioles and designated pitcher Maikel Cleto for assignment.

@JaymesL wondered aloud if Brewer fans would rather have Matt Garza or Jimenez on the same deal.

Today in former Brewers:

• Dana Eveland signed a minor league deal with the Mets yesterday but will not be invited to MLB spring training. Eveland is 30 and last appeared in the big leagues with the Orioles in 2012.
• Plunk Everyone used the open of spring training as a reason to post a remarkably comprehensive look at Brewers and HBPs.

If you were on Twitter yesterday you might have seen this making the rounds: Jesse Spector of The Sporting News made a Mad Libs spring training story to highlight the fact that we see largely the same reporting from training camps every year. Longtime readers of the site may recall that we did the same thing four years to the day earlier.

Finally, with help from the B-Ref Play Index, we'd like to wish a happy birthday today to:

• 2004-06 Brewer Chad Moeller, who turns 39. We covered his birthday in Today In Brewer History two years ago.
• 1989 Brewer LaVel Freeman, who turns 51.
• 1972 Brewer Syd O'Brien, who turns 70.

Today is also the 13th anniversary of longtime Milwaukee Brave Eddie Mathews' death in 2001. We covered that event in Today In Brewer History last year.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to move the panda again.

Drink up.

This is the team you love to hate. Right?

There really are just two significant questions surrounding the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers: How will Ryan Braun do on his return from suspension, and how will fans react to him outside Milwaukee?

I think we already know the answer to the second question. Braun, already disliked in many opposing towns, particularly Chicago, is likely to get vilified in most opponents' ballparks, especially Wrigley Field. Will it affect his performance? Most players can shut that kind of thing out. Over his career to date, there hasn't been much difference in his hitting in Milwaukee (.962 career OPS) and on the road (.915 career OPS).

Will being off PEDs (presuming he is) make a difference? Only time will tell. One thing that will be different -- Braun will be patrolling right field for the Brewers instead of left field, with the departure of Norichika Aoki, who was traded to the Kansas City Royals (for a well-known actor, apparently). Khris Davis (and it's good he spells his name with a "K" so we can tell him apart from Baltimore's Chris Davis), who showed prodigious power (11 home runs) in a 56-game trial after Braun's suspension, will take over in left.

Scooter Gennett is listed on the Brewers' depth chart as the starting second baseman ahead of Rickie Weeks, but that might be a battle won in spring training. Weeks had his 2013 season ruined by injury and poor performance, and he's now 31, so perhaps the Brewers want to try someone younger.

The other significant change for Milwaukee will be the addition of former Cub Matt Garza to their rotation. Garza was signed to an Edwin Jackson-esque four-year, $52 million contract (after turning down the Angels because he was on vacation -- really, Matt, really?), and the Brewers certainly expect Garza to provide more value for that money than Jackson has (so far, at least) to the Cubs.

The Cubs will play the Brewers in six separate series totalling 19 games this year. The series are spaced far enough apart that it's possible that Garza could face the Cubs in all six of them. If there's anything we have learned about Garza in his two and a half years as a Cub, it's that he's a poor fielder (and poor hitter, too; as a Cub he went 12-for-112 with 74 strikeouts). The Cubs need to bunt on Garza when they face him. A lot.

Milwaukee's season went down the drain last year due to injuries and the Braun suspension. This team has a fair amount of talent and it wouldn't surprise me to see them return to a winning year in 2014.

The Cubs first face the Brewers April 25-26-27 in Miller Park; the Brewers' first trip to Wrigley Field is a weekend set May 16-17-18.

We look at Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, and the assorted rest of the people who throw baseballs.

I think it goes without saying that the two names below will do a whole heck of a lot to determine the fate of this edition of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Marco Estrada

I have not devoted much attention to Estrada around here but he is an intriguing piece to the puzzle in the following sense-- if the Brewers are going to contend for a playoff spot in 2014, it's likely going to have something substantial to do with him. He has had back to back years now of essentially the line you see below in his upcoming ZiPS projection. That has involved exciting peripherals numbers, low ground balls rates but also decent home run to fly ball ratios. At this point, he's thrown about 360 innings for the Brewers in his career and the peripherals have remained pretty spectacular. If we get to see 180 innings or more from Estrada, it could be a treat.

Contract situation: 2014: $3.325 M

ZiPS: 135 innings, 22% K 6.2 % BB, 3.8 FIP, 3.9 ERA

Jordan's over/under: Under. I can see a higher innings total but I don't think he matches those rates over more innings. On balance, that could actually be a good thing.

Wily Peralta

In 2013 five qualified starting pitchers had a higher average fastball velocity than Wily Peralta. They were Matt Harvey, Steven Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Andrew Cashner, and Jeff Samardzija. Behind him were Homer Bailey and Justin Verlander. The strikeout percentages of those top 8 pitchers, in order, were 28, 26, 28, 18, 16, 23, 23, and 24. Peralta was the 16%. Wily turns 25 in May, he's entering his prime, and this is the time for him to step forward.

Contract situation: Pre-arbitration 2 (~$500,000)

ZiPS: 164 innings, 17.6% K 10.4 % BB, 4.4 FIP, 4.4 ERA

Jordan's over/under: Over. I just can't see myself betting on the guy putting up basically the same line he did last year. Maybe he's the same, roughly fifth starter as last year. But that velocity and that stuff is just too much to pass up.

The rest of the starting depth

I think it's fair to say that Tyler Thornburg will get his fair share of innings at the major league level this season and that he certainly deserves the opportunity to have the first shot to fill in. But I think that the real intrigue here lies with Will Smith. I won't get too deep into the Smith analysis now, he's going to be someone I check in with during spring training or early April, but everybody seems to agree that the stuff is there. Check out his ZiPS line:

138 innings, 20.4% K 7.6 % BB, 4.2 FIP, 4.2 ERA

This may be an result of Smith spending last year in relief and posting great peripherals but still being looked at as a starter by the projections systems, but a line like that gives the Brewers two legitimate options. It's amazing what the Garza signing did for my outlook on this team's starting pitching depth. They no longer need to find a passable 5th starter out of these two, they can be pure luxury for depth or bullpen help until somebody hits the DL.

The bullpen

The more I learn about bullpens the less I know about bullpens. I think anyone who is paying attention knows that paying big money for all but the top tier of relief pitchers has backfired again and again and again, so all you can do is find pitchers who have a track record of being able to both strike batters out and avoid walking them and hope that things work out. Mantra number two is that there is no such thing as a bad one year deal if you have the money. Melvin has generally adopted this philosophy well, and it's worth appreciating how many options they have to fill out this bullpen.

Established tier: Rodriguez, Henderson, Kintzler, Gorzelanny

Starting depth tier: Thornburg, Smith

Possibly helpful tier: Figaro, Wooten, Hand

Wild card tier: Duke, Wang, Hellweg, Fiers (

That's 13 pitchers who could plausibly be effective, and you only need 7 at a time. It might be good, it might be bad, but it's better than bringing in 3 David Riskes on multi-year deals to be setup men and trying to slot everything right in its place before it all goes horribly wrong. I have no clue what this bullpen is going to look like in April, much less September, but I do have quite a bit of faith in it. Tell me why I'm wrong.

Who is the #6 prospect in the Brewers organization?

Just nine votes separated first and third place, but Orlando Arcia edged out a crowded field to be selected as the #5 prospect in our Brew Crew Ball Community Rankings. Here's where we stand today:

1. Jimmy Nelson (57% of the vote)
2. Tyrone Taylor (65% of the vote)
3. Victor Roache (40% of the vote)
4. Mitch Haniger (39% of the vote)
5. Orlando Arcia (34% of the vote)

Today the ballot extends to ten candidates. Here are your choices for #6:

(For a full explanation of what we're doing here, check out the first post in the series.)

Clint Coulter, C
Age: 20
Top level reached in 2013: A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 135 PA, .207/.299/.345, 3 HR, 1 SB, 0 CS, 11 BB, 31 K
Helena (Rookie+): 81 PA, .216/.263/.311, 1 HR, 1 SB, 0 CS, 4 BB, 14 K
Arizona (Rookie): 66 PA, .350/.409/.617, 3 HR, 1 SB, 1 CS, 5 BB, 15 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Nick Delmonico, 3B
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A+

2013 stats:

Combined, Frederick and Brevard County (A+): 350 PA, .232/.346/.423, 13 HR, 7 SB, 2 CS, 48 BB, 80 K

Highest position in other rankings:

David Goforth, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 46.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 18 BB (3.5 BB/9), 36 K (6.9 K/9)
Brevard County (A+): 78.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 28 BB (3.2 BB/9), 58 K (6.7 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 12 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 4 BB (3 BB/9), 15 K (11.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Johnny Hellweg, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: MLB

2013 stats:

Milwaukee (MLB): 30.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.152 WHIP, 26 BB (7.6 BB/9), 9 K (2.6/9)
Nashville (AAA): 125.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.464 WHIP, 81 BB (5.8/9), 89 K (6.4/9)
Wisconsin (A): 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2 BB (3.0/9), 4 K (6.0/9)

Highest positions in other rankings:

Taylor Jungmann, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 139.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 73 BB (4.7 BB/9), 82 K (5.3 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 2.180 WHIP, 7 BB (8.6 BB/9), 7 K (8.6 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Hunter Morris, 1B
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AAA

2013 stats:

Nashville (AAA): 546 PA, .247/.310/.457, 24 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS, 43 BB, 122 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Tucker Neuhaus, SS/3B
Age: 18
Top level reached in 2013: Rookie (Arizona)

2013 stats:

Arizona (Rookie): 219 PA, .231/.311/.303, 0 HR, 6 SB, 3 CS, 23 BB, 56 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Ariel Pena, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 142.1 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 79 BB (5.0 BB/9), 131 K (8.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Michael Reed, OF
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 539 PA, .286/.385/.400, 1 HR, 26 SB, 10 CS, 71 BB, 108 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Devin Williams, RHP
Age: 19
Top level reached in 2013: Rookie (Arizona)

2013 stats:

Arizona (Rookie): 34.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 22 BB (5.7 BB/9), 39 K (10.1 K/9)

Highest positions in other rankings:

TOP 20 BASEBALL PROSPECTS FOR 2014 BY ORGANIZATION

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Baltimore Orioles  (January 26, 2014)
Boston Red Sox  (January 1,2014)
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays   (January 18, 2014)

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals   (December 16, 2013)
Minnesota Twins   (October 15, 2013)

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Houston Astros (February 18, 2014)
Los Angeles Angels   (January 11, 2014)
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Atlanta Braves (December 4, 2013)
Miami Marlins
New York Mets  (January 13, 2014)
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs   (January 8, 2014)
Cincinnati Reds   (January 22, 2014)
Milwaukee Brewers (January 30, 2014)
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants  (December 28, 2014)

We're talking about Matt Garza's first week as a Brewer and more in today's daily news roundup.

Some things to read while the sky is falling.

Today is day five of spring training, meaning Matt Garza has had almost a week to introduce himself to his new teammates. The AP has a story on Garza's efforts to settle into a new home after playing for four organizations in his first eight MLB seasons.

This spring also has to be a new experience for Brandon Kintzler, who pitched his way into a prominent role in the Brewer bullpen in his first full MLB season in 2013. Kintzler is heavily featured in Adam McCalvy's preview of the Brewers relievers, and High Heat Stats notes that last year he became the first Brewer pitcher since 1980 to pitch over 75 innings and allow fewer than .3 home runs per nine innings.

Meanwhile, Martin Maldonado is the first Brewer this spring to report being in the "best shape of his life." He lost 26 pounds over the winter and took just four days off between the end of the Caribbean Series and reporting to camp in Maryvale.

Other notes from camp:

• Tom Haudricourt reports (via Twitter in two parts) that Mark Reynolds and Elian Herrera reported to camp on Tuesday. All position players are required to be in Maryvale by Friday.
• ASU student Brendan Capria of the JS talked to Rob Wooten and Michael Blazek about the Olympics.
• Fellow ASU student Gabby Castillo has video from her conversations with Brandon Kintzler and Caleb Gindl about their offseason activities.

Of course, one of the spring's biggest ongoing stories remains Jean Segura's contract situation. Yesterday Doug Melvin was quoted as saying "we like to get deals that have at least a year of free agency if we can," which would mean a six-year deal for the young shortstop. Ben Tannenbaum of Reviewing the Brew says "there is no downside to exploring an extension, but Melvin should not be trigger happy to get a deal done now."

Marco Estrada, meanwhile, is two years away from free agency and is drawing less attention. He does, however, feature prominently in Jordan's efforts to project the back half of the rotation and bullpen's 2014 performances, and he's featured in the latest entry of The Brewer Nation's "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series.

Wily Peralta projects to win the #4 or 5 spot in the rotation this spring, and a big season from him would go a long way towards helping the Brewers compete. Craig Goldstein of MLB Daily Dish listed Peralta as one of the NL Central players most likely to improve this season.

Logan Schafer is also looking to improve on his first full season in the majors after posting a .211/.279/.322 batting line in 337 plate appearances last year. He talked to Tom Haudricourt about injuries and putting a positive spin on his struggles.

Schafer is the likely backup in center field behind one of baseball's best defenders. We all know about Carlos Gomez's ability to make incredible catches, but Joshua Mastracci of Beyond the Box Score says he also has one of the game's best throwing arms. Norichika Aoki is also among the leaders.

Khris Davis started his rapid ascent in the Brewers organization with a hot spring last year, and a year later he's been penciled in as the likely Opening Day starter in left field. Looking back, Chris Mehring of the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers remembers Davis' top five games in the Midwest League in 2010.

Elsewhere in the minors:

• As of this writing Johnny Hellweg holds a narrow lead over Devin Williams in the voting for the #6 spot in our BCB Community Prospect Rankings. You have until noon today to cast your vote, and the ballot for #7 will be up around 1.
• Space Coast Stadium, home of the Brevard County Manatees, is also the spring training home of the Washington Nationals. The Nats have been looking to leave for a while, though, and now they're talking about a shared facility with the Astros in Palm Beach County.

Today in previews, predictions, projections and stuff: Bleed Cubbie Blue has a pretty Braun-centric preview of the Brewers, but also says "this team has a fair amount of talent and it wouldn't surprise me to see them return to a winning year in 2014."

Around baseball:

Braves: Released first/third baseman Mat Gamel.
Giants: Avoided arbitration with first baseman Brandon Belt (one year, $2.9 million).
Indians: Avoided arbitration with pitcher Justin Masterson (one year, $9.76 million).

Gamel was let go after re-injuring his twice surgically repaired knee in an offseason workout. Ryan Connor of Reviewing the Brew remembers the night in San Diego when he injured the knee the first time.

Elsewhere in former Brewers:

• Reliever Mike Adams had shoulder surgery last July and may not be ready for Opening Day.
• Chris Capuano remains a free agent but is believed to be discussing potential deals with the Red Sox and Mariners.
• Outfielder Brett Carroll has signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays but will not be invited to MLB camp.

So Carroll has found work for 2014 but guys like Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew have not. Draft pick compensation is at issue again here, but Matt Sullivan of MLB Daily Dish wonders if the issue is at least partially teams overvaluing their first round picks. For what it's worth, Mark Brown of Camden Chat says the Orioles made the right decision by forfeiting the #17 overall pick to sign Ubaldo Jimenez.

Today in baseball economics: The Dodgers are about a week away from debuting SportsNet LA, their new cable network, but many of their fans may be unable to see it. The network is operated by Time Warner Cable, and other TV providers have balked at the price they're charging for the right to carry it.

Meanwhile, my favorite unusual ongoing topic of the spring continues to be teams reviewing their facial hair policies. The Marlins will allow beards for the first time this season, provided they're "kept clean."

The Pirates haven't weighed in on the great facial hair debate (as far as I know, anyway), but they have gotten a jump on the field by announcing that Francisco Liriano will start on Opening Day. I think this is the only official Opening Day assignment to date.

Finally, with help from the B-Ref Play Index, we'd like to wish a happy birthday today to:

• 2002 Brewers pitching coach Dave Stewart, who turns 57. We covered his birthday in Today In Brewer History last year.
• 1963-65 Milwaukee Brave Bob Sadowski, who turns 76. We covered his birthday in Today In Brewer History two years ago.

Plunk Everyone notes that Stewart's 62 career hit batsmen are the second most ever for a pitcher born on February 19, and Sadowski is fourth with 16.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to start a new trend.

Drink up.

He's still expected to report to camp on Friday.

Aramis Ramirez is one of the last invitees who have not yet reported to Brewers camp, although it's possible he has an excuse.

Ramirez recently underwent a surgical procedure to remove polyp from his colon, Todd Rosiak reported moments ago. The issue was discovered during a routine exam and is not believed to be serious. Ron Roenicke told reporters Ramirez is fine, will still report to camp on time and is already swinging a bat, but will be a few days behind when spring training games start in about a week.

Ramirez turns 36 in June and is coming off one of his worst seasons in the majors. Knee injuries limited him to just 92 games in 2013 and he hit .283/.370/.461, posting his second-lowest OPS since 2003. His 43 runs scored were his lowest total since 2000, when he was just 22 years old. In 2012 Ramirez hit 50 doubles and finished ninth in the voting for NL MVP.

There's a strong chance this will be a non-story once Ramirez reports to camp and starts playing in games. But given his slow start in 2012 and his early knee injury in 2013, getting Ramirez healthy and strong to start the season has to be a high priority this spring.

I think the only opinion we're missing at this point is yours.

I've had this space blocked off on my calendar for a couple of days now to "discuss possible Jean Segura extension." By now I'm sure you've heard this weekend's news that the Brewersexpect to discuss a possible long term deal with their young shortstop this spring, and that they also talked about this last spring.

If you've been reading the Mug, you've heard a lot about this over the last few days. Here are some key points:

• Doug Melvin told Adam McCalvy that the Brewers would need to buy out at least a year of free agency for a deal to make sense for them. That suggests the Brewers would be looking for a six-year deal, or at least something with a club option for a sixth year.
• Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker used Alcides Escobar's extension with the Royals (four years, $10 million with club options for a fifth and sixth year) and Starlin Castro's contract with the Cubs (seven years, $60 million with a club option for an eighth year) as examples of what a deal could look like.

Segura is still two years away from being eligible for arbitration and five years away from free agency, so any long term deal would likely include some kind of "buy early discount" where Segura gets some financial security now in exchange for leaving some potential money on the table down the road. The Brewers came out pretty well giving deals like that to Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun (the first time). They didn't do as well in a similar situation with Bill Hall.

So, taking what we know into account, I'll throw out a baseline estimate for a Segura extension. I think Segura is likely worth more than Escobar was at the time of his extension, but I find it very hard to believe the Brewers would offer anything comparable to Castro's deal. Taking Segura's low service time into account, I'm estimating a framework like this:

For what it's worth, that's almost $6 more in guaranteed money than the Brewers gave Jonathan Lucroy in a similar situation in March of 2012.

So what do you think? Would you be willing to offer Segura a deal like this?

Who is the seventh best prospect in the Brewers organization?

Devin Williams' supporters mounted a late charge to earn him the #6 spot in our community ranking of the top prospects in the Brewers organization. Here's where we stand today:

1. Jimmy Nelson (57% of the vote)
2. Tyrone Taylor (65% of the vote)
3. Victor Roache (40% of the vote)
4. Mitch Haniger (39% of the vote)
5. Orlando Arcia (34% of the vote)
6. Devin Williams (37% of the vote)

Here are your choices for #7:

(For a full explanation of what we're doing here, check out the first post in the series.)

Clint Coulter, C
Age: 20
Top level reached in 2013: A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 135 PA, .207/.299/.345, 3 HR, 1 SB, 0 CS, 11 BB, 31 K
Helena (Rookie+): 81 PA, .216/.263/.311, 1 HR, 1 SB, 0 CS, 4 BB, 14 K
Arizona (Rookie): 66 PA, .350/.409/.617, 3 HR, 1 SB, 1 CS, 5 BB, 15 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Nick Delmonico, 3B
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A+

2013 stats:

Combined, Frederick and Brevard County (A+): 350 PA, .232/.346/.423, 13 HR, 7 SB, 2 CS, 48 BB, 80 K

Highest position in other rankings:

David Goforth, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 46.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 18 BB (3.5 BB/9), 36 K (6.9 K/9)
Brevard County (A+): 78.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 28 BB (3.2 BB/9), 58 K (6.7 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 12 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 4 BB (3 BB/9), 15 K (11.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Johnny Hellweg, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: MLB

2013 stats:

Milwaukee (MLB): 30.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.152 WHIP, 26 BB (7.6 BB/9), 9 K (2.6/9)
Nashville (AAA): 125.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.464 WHIP, 81 BB (5.8/9), 89 K (6.4/9)
Wisconsin (A): 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2 BB (3.0/9), 4 K (6.0/9)

Highest positions in other rankings:

Taylor Jungmann, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 139.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 73 BB (4.7 BB/9), 82 K (5.3 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 2.180 WHIP, 7 BB (8.6 BB/9), 7 K (8.6 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Hunter Morris, 1B
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AAA

2013 stats:

Nashville (AAA): 546 PA, .247/.310/.457, 24 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS, 43 BB, 122 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Tucker Neuhaus, SS/3B
Age: 18
Top level reached in 2013: Rookie (Arizona)

2013 stats:

Arizona (Rookie): 219 PA, .231/.311/.303, 0 HR, 6 SB, 3 CS, 23 BB, 56 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Ariel Pena, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 142.1 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 79 BB (5.0 BB/9), 131 K (8.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Michael Reed, OF
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 539 PA, .286/.385/.400, 1 HR, 26 SB, 10 CS, 71 BB, 108 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Yadiel Rivera, SS
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A+

2013 stats:

Brevard County (A+): 524 PA, .241/.300/.314, 5 HR, 13 SB, 8 CS, 32 BB, 80 K

Highest position in other rankings:

The 24-year-old righty is the only Brewer on the list.

One of the final top 100 prospect lists of the spring is out this morning, and it's more of the same for Brewers fans. Baseball America has just one Brewer on their list: Jimmy Nelson at #96. This is another knock against a Brewer system that only got one player on MLB.com's top 100 list (also Nelson, at #83), was completely left off Baseball Prospectus' list and was ranked by Keith Law as the worst farm system in all of baseball.

Nelson made his big league debut as a September callup in 2013 after posting a 3.25 ERA over 27 starts in the minors between AA Huntsville and AAA Nashville. He struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings, a new best for a full season, and allowed just .2 home runs per nine innings over 15 starts in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

As a Brewer Nelson appeared in four games (one start) and allowed just one run on two hits over ten innings. The Matt Garza signing probably knocked him out of contention to open the season in the Brewers' rotation, but he's likely to get a shot at some point. We recently selected him as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization in our Community Prospect Rankings.

Nelson was the Brewers' second round pick (#64 overall) in the second round of the 2010 draft. He's one of nine players selected in that round to reach the majors.

For what it's worth, Nelson wasn't the only pitcher drafted by the Brewers to make the list: Rays prospect Jake Odorizzi is #67, making the list for the fourth consecutive year. The Brewers sent him to Kansas City in the Zack Greinke trade in late 2010, and he's since been moved again to Tampa.

We're talking about the last position players to report and more in today's roundup of all things Brewers.

Some things to read while locking the doors.

Today is day 6 of spring training, and yesterday an unlikely candidate stole the show. Follow this link to read about Hank, a stray puppy that has become the Brewers' unofficial Cactus League mascot. Jess Lemont of The Brewers Bar has already drawn a picture of him, and he's successfully turned Rob Neyer into a Brewers fan.

Meanwhile, all but three Brewer regulars have reported to camp: @Todd_Rosiak reports that Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Gomez are the exceptions, and they have until Friday to get there.

When he does report, Ramirez will be a few days behind most of the Brewers position players. He had surgery this offseason to remove a polyp from his colon and was set back in his offseason routine. The issue is not believed to be serious.

It's probably safe to assume Ryan Braun will report tomorrow and address reporters for the first time this spring. Casa de Machado came back from almost three years on the shelf to speak out against anyone planning on booing Braun on Opening Day.

Other notes from camp:

• Bob Uecker was in attendance for the first time this spring on Wednesday. (h/t @AdamMcCalvy)
• Rickie Weeks and Scooter Gennett also both reported to camp on Wednesday, and Adam McCalvy talked to both about the competition for playing time at second base.
• Ron Roenicke told reporters the team plans to focus on getting Taylor Green settled back at third base after a lost year due to injury.
• ASU student Lauren Guzman of the JS has pictures of Matt Garza taking pitchers' fielding practice.
• Fellow ASU student Brendan Capria talked to reliever Michael Olmsted about his career to this point and his efforts to bounce back from a disappointing 2013 season.
• Bullpen catcher Marcus Hanel confirmed on Twitter than Sean Halton was in a Little Debbie commercial once.
• The Brewers tumblr account has a picture of Ed Sedar overseeing drills from the tower.

The Brewers have gotten through a few days of pitcher workouts now without major incident, but that doesn't mean it's time to stop holding your breath. Adam McCalvy has a look at how the Brewers are working to reduce injuries following their cavalcade of issues last spring.

Speaking of injuries, Jonathan Judge of Disciples of Uecker attempted to assess NL Central rotations by their level of injury risk and has the Brewers as the team most likely to lose a starter to the disabled list.

The Brewer most likely to miss time in 2014 may be Marco Estrada, who has never pitched a full season as a major league starter. Estrada also shows flashes of brilliance when healthy, though, and Curt Hogg of Disciples of Uecker says he's a sleeper candidate to have a great season.

Jean Segura's contract extension remains as one of the spring's top storylines, and it looks like most of us are in favor of the Brewers proceeding with a move: Our poll from yesterday showed that 71% of you would approve if the Brewers offered Segura a five-year, $16.75 million contract with a club option for a sixth year. 23% of you feel like that offer isn't high enough.

In the minors:

• Congratulations are due out once again this morning to Jimmy Nelson, who checks in at #96 on Baseball America's list of the top 100 prospects for 2014. Nelson was the only Brewer mentioned.
• As of this writing Johnny Hellweg has a commanding lead in the voting for the #7 spot in our BCB Community Prospect Rankings. The poll will remain open until noon today, and the ballot for #8 will appear around 1.

Today in predictions, projections, power rankings and the like: Jonah Keri of Grantland has the Brewers 20th in his preseason ranking of all 30 teams and says, "if you want to make one far-out bet before Opening Day, you could do worse than picking the Brewers to finish second in the Central."

Somehow, I don't think the Brewers will be putting that quote in their website tagline. Craig Robinson of NotGraphs has tagline suggestions for all 30 teams.

Around baseball:

Braves: Signed manager Fredi Gonzalez and general manager Frank Wren to contract extensions.
Orioles: Designated pitcher Liam Hendriks for assignment.
Reds: Signed pitcher Homer Bailey to a six-year, $105 million contract with a club option for 2020, avoiding arbitration.

David Schoenfield of ESPN has a look at how the Bailey signing impacts the 2015 free agent class.

Today in former Brewers:

• Felipe Lopez had previously agreed to play for the independent Bridgeport Bluefish in the Atlantic League, but has instead decided to pursue opportunities to play in China. (h/t @ChrisCotillo)
• Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio has Dickie Thon, Thad Bosley and Mark Clear featured in his collection of California Angels cards.

Finally, with help from the B-Ref Play Index, we'd like to wish a happy birthday today to:

• 2012 Brewer Livan Hernandez, who turns 39.
• 2003 Brewer Leo Estrella, who turns 39.
• 1974 Brewer Clyde Wright, who turns 73. We covered his birthday in Today In Brewer History two years ago.
• 1953-54 Milwaukee Brave and 1973-74 Brewer GM Jim Wilson, who would have turned 92. We covered his birthday in Today In Brewer History last year.

Plunk Everyone notes that Hernandez's 78 career hit batsmen are the most ever for a pitcher born on February 20, and Wilson is also fifth on that list with 29.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm still waiting.

Drink up.

Aramis Ramirez is a few doubles away from joining a pretty small group.

We've talked a fair amount about Aramis Ramirez lately as he enters his 17th MLB season. Last year Ramirez collected his 2000th hit, 1000th run scored, 350th home run and 1250th RBI.

Compared to those numbers, the next milestone ahead of him is somewhat minor: Ramirez needs just nine doubles in 2014 to become the eleventh active player with 450. If he gets there, he'll be the 40th player in MLB history with at least 350 homers, 1000 runs scored, 1250 RBI and 450 doubles. How many of the others can you name in eight minutes?

If the quiz isn't displaying correctly for you here or you'd simply prefer to take it over there, follow this link to play the quiz at Sporcle.com.

Please post your score in the comments below, but also remember that comments on this post may contain spoilers. If you get all 39 answers correct, post your time along with your score in the comments.

A week from today the Brewers play their first spring training game, so this is the final Thursday Thinker of the 2013-14 offseason. Thanks to everyone for playing, and I hope you've enjoyed this feature.

If you've finished this quiz and would like another challenge, here are this offseason's other Thinkers:

• Name the Brewers who have played at least 25 games at shortstop since 1995.
• Name the Brewers' active leaders in ten categories.
• Name the 22 pitchers with active contracts worth $50 million or more.
• Name the Brewers who have been invited to MLB spring training (as of January 23).
• Name the parking lots surrounding Miller Park.
• Name each MLB team's leader in games played at second base since 2003.
• Name the best Brewers who never received an MVP vote.
• Name the new homes of this winter's top 50 free agents (updated twice on January 23).
• Name the members of the Brewers' new Wall of Honor.
• Name the Brewers who have appeared in more games than Corey Hart.
• Name the Brewers with career OBPs above .350.
• Name the 15 players who have played first base for the Brewers since Prince Fielder.
• Name the Brewers who have hit 25 or more home runs in a season.
• Name the nine Brewers under contract for 2014 (as of November 14).
• Name the 12 relievers that have faced the Brewers at least 25 times since 2007.
• Name the 28 position players who have made at least 200 plate appearances against the Brewers since 2007.
• Name the 18 starting pitchers who have faced the Brewers eleven times or more since 2007.
• Name the eight former Brewers who have appeared in the 2013 postseason.
• Name all 40 members of the 2013 Milwaukee Brewers.

You can also check out the archives for all of last winter's quizzes.

Have fun, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Who is the #8 prospect in the Brewers organization?

After getting edged out two days in a row, Johnny Hellweg was the clear choice for the #7 spot in our community's rankings of the top prospects in the Brewers organization. Here's where we stand today:

1. Jimmy Nelson (57% of the vote)
2. Tyrone Taylor (65% of the vote)
3. Victor Roache (40% of the vote)
4. Mitch Haniger (39% of the vote)
5. Orlando Arcia (34% of the vote)
6. Devin Williams (37% of the vote)
7. Johnny Hellweg (52% of the vote)

Here are your choices for #8:

(For a full explanation of what we're doing here, check out the first post in the series.)

Clint Coulter, C
Age: 20
Top level reached in 2013: A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 135 PA, .207/.299/.345, 3 HR, 1 SB, 0 CS, 11 BB, 31 K
Helena (Rookie+): 81 PA, .216/.263/.311, 1 HR, 1 SB, 0 CS, 4 BB, 14 K
Arizona (Rookie): 66 PA, .350/.409/.617, 3 HR, 1 SB, 1 CS, 5 BB, 15 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Nick Delmonico, 3B
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A+

2013 stats:

Combined, Frederick and Brevard County (A+): 350 PA, .232/.346/.423, 13 HR, 7 SB, 2 CS, 48 BB, 80 K

Highest position in other rankings:

David Goforth, RHP
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 46.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 18 BB (3.5 BB/9), 36 K (6.9 K/9)
Brevard County (A+): 78.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 28 BB (3.2 BB/9), 58 K (6.7 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 12 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 4 BB (3 BB/9), 15 K (11.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Taylor Jungmann, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 139.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 73 BB (4.7 BB/9), 82 K (5.3 K/9)
Surprise (Arizona Fall): 7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 2.180 WHIP, 7 BB (8.6 BB/9), 7 K (8.6 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Damien Magnifico, RHP
Age: 22
Top level reached in 2013: A+

2013 stats:

Brevard County (A+): 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 1.838 WHIP, 17 BB (5.7 BB/9), 17 K (5.7 K/9)
Wisconsin (A): 54 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 24 BB (4.0 BB/9), 46 K (7.7 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Hunter Morris, 1B
Age: 25
Top level reached in 2013: AAA

2013 stats:

Nashville (AAA): 546 PA, .247/.310/.457, 24 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS, 43 BB, 122 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Tucker Neuhaus, SS/3B
Age: 18
Top level reached in 2013: Rookie (Arizona)

2013 stats:

Arizona (Rookie): 219 PA, .231/.311/.303, 0 HR, 6 SB, 3 CS, 23 BB, 56 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Ariel Pena, RHP
Age: 24
Top level reached in 2013: AA

2013 stats:

Huntsville (AA): 142.1 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 79 BB (5.0 BB/9), 131 K (8.3 K/9)

Highest position in other rankings:

Michael Reed, OF
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A

2013 stats:

Wisconsin (A): 539 PA, .286/.385/.400, 1 HR, 26 SB, 10 CS, 71 BB, 108 K

Highest position in other rankings:

Yadiel Rivera, SS
Age: 21
Top level reached in 2013: A+

2013 stats:

Brevard County (A+): 524 PA, .241/.300/.314, 5 HR, 13 SB, 8 CS, 32 BB, 80 K

Highest position in other rankings:

We're pondering what Ron Roenicke will do with his new-found responsibility under MLB's expanded replay system

The long-awaited MLB instant replay system has arrived, and it places a significant new tool in managers' hands. They will now get to challenge one call a game. If their first challenge is successful, they'll be awarded a second challenge. If the manager runs out, umpires have discretion to review a play that would have benefited the impoverished manager after the sixth inning. The universe of challengable calls is vast and includes virtually everything but balls and strikes.

Some have argued that the current set-up is heavily skewed toward liberal use of the challenge. Basically, a manager should use the challenge at the slightest hint of a close call, because "the likelihood of there being an opportunity to impact a play later in the game is so incredibly low." The data support this theory, with a sufficiently close call estimated to occur just once per game. The umpires miss 20% of those close calls.

The liberal use of the challenge, though, goes against the system's design. Replay was supposed to be reserved for egregious errors like this. "You don't really need a pocketful of challenges," said LaRussa. "It doesn't come around all that often."

Which of the two replay versions fans will get remains to be seen, and rests largely in the hands of managers. Will they become as challenge-happy as their NFL counterparts, tossing flags at every remotely arguable call? Or will they hold on to them out of fear that a game-changing play later might go unreviewed?

Naturally, I wondered how Ron Roenicke will use his new toy.

Mercifully, managers won't actually have to throw flags, rosin bags, or Altuves to initiate a challenge under baseball's new rules. All they have to do is tell the umpires they want to challenge a play when they previously would have approached to discuss or argue a call. And that gives us a point of comparison.

My initial thought was that a manager's use of a challenge might be predicted by how likely he was to confront umpires directly under the old rules. Perhaps as a nod to the sacrosanct notion of "tradition" in baseball, the sentiment seems to be that managers' first inclination will still be argument; the umpires have been instructed to ask early on in the dispute whether the manager wants to use his challenge.

Unfortunately, data on manager arguments doesn't seem to be readily available. Manager ejections are monitored, though, and ejections almost always occur after argument. Ron Roenicke has just five ejections during his tenure with the Brewers:

• June 20, 2011. Nyjer Morgan is hit by a pitch, but Bob Davidson rules that Morgan didn't make enough of an effort to avoid it, and calls ball one. Dale Sveum is ejected for arguing from the dugout. Roenicke then goes out to argue the call and is ejected.
• July 7, 2012. Zack Greinke is ejected when he erupts after a runner is called safe at first. Roenicke is ejected when he goes out to argue.
• August 8, 2012. Less than a month later, Jerry Narron is ejected in Houston for arguing balls and strikes. Roenicke soon follows. The team is three outs from finishing a blowout win. The Astros were fun to have around.
• April 23, 2013. Chase Headley swings through strike three, but both home plate umpire Gary Darling and third base umpire Clint Fagan blow the call and decide Headley checked his swing. Roenicke is ejected when he yells at the umpires from the dugout.
• August 9, 2013. Roenicke is ejected for arguing a (correct) fan interference call.

But then, there are his own words on the matter on Tuesday (full video below):

"I don't know if you need to replay something when you need five angles and you need super slow-motion to see it. I don't care about those plays. I care about the obvious ones that can change a game."

The replay system is still being hammered out, and there's plenty of time for Roenicke to change his mind. I'd hope there will be further study in the clubhouse and front office before official games start. But if Roenicke holds true to those comments, expect him to be judicious in his use of the replay challenge.

The Fake Teams fantasy baseball staff offer you some third baseman that you should avoid in your 2014 fantasy drafts, including Matt Carpenter, Ryan Zimmerman and others.

When preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts, it is a must to have a draft strategy, and on Wednesday, Zack Smith broke things down for you to assist you in your fantasy third base draft strategy.We have also provided you with our Top 30 third base rankings for 2014:

Part 1

Part 2

Included in the rankings above, we provided 2014 projections for almost every third baseman ranked, courtesy of Daniel Schwartz from Fake Teams and Rotobanter.

In addition, Daniel Kelley provided you his third base breakdown using his new fantasy stat called Equivalent Fantasy Average, or EFA.

Now that we have provided you all these tools you need to prepare for your drafts, your fantasy draft preparation would be incomplete without some third baseman to avoid, which we provide you today, and some third baseman to target, which published yesterday.

We asked each of the fantasy baseball writers to provide you with the third baseman they would avoid in fantasy drafts this season, and you can find them along with their reasoning below:

Third Baseman to Avoid in 2014

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals- Joe Pytleski (follow @agape4argentina)

Matt Carpenter will not score 126 runs again. It's not going to happen. So, if he really doesn't hit home runs and he really doesn't steal bases then his value will take a hit. However, everyone will draft him in the top 10 again this year dreaming of his fantasy goodness from last year. Don't do it. Holliday is a year older, Beltran is gone, and now you're talking Kolten Wong, Mark Ellis, Craig in the OF, and a somewhat unproven Adams. I think there's too many question marks here. By the way, in dynasty leagues, he should have already been sold at the end of last season--he'll lose 2b after this year and you certainly don't want him at the hot corner.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals - Matt Mattingly (follow @mattmattingly81)

NFBC average draft position results have the Cardinals' third baseman going off the board at #52 overall as of 2/17/2014. That is a steep investment to pay for a player trying to duplicate a first time performance of putting up a .318 batting average while scoring 126 runs. While those numbers demonstrate just how well Carpenter performed in 2013, the chances of reaching those totals again in 2014 are very unlikely. A batting average around .290 to go with 90 runs scored would be a much better baseline for owners to set expectations. Add in that Carpenter doesn't provide much in homeruns or stolen bases, and there is a good chance that owners who invest heavily in the Cardinals' third baseman will get burned.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals- Ray Guilfoyle (follow @faketeams)

Zimmerman entered September 2013 with just 15 home runs, 62 runs scored and 61 RBI and proceeded to hit 11 home runs, score 22 runs and drive in 18 runs, making his season ending totals respectable. His current ADP according to NFBC is 61.71, so he is being drafted in the late fourth-early fifth rounds in the NFBC 15 team mixed leagues. That seems a bit high for me. I prefer drafting Athletics third baseman Josh Donaldson later in the 5th round or Aramis Ramirez in the 10th round, as both could put up similar or better stats than Zimmerman in 2014.

Aramis Ramirez, Brewers- Jason Hunt (follow @jasonsbaseball)

The name is a big one for fantasy owners, and it's easy to just disregard the 2013 campaign as a fluke and believe that he will return to a .300 hitting, 25 home run third baseman. However, you have a power hitter coming off an injury, who has also seen a drop in his fly ball percentage each of the last three years, If you can get him at a later point in your draft, he's got the potential to provide nice excess value, but don't get tricked into drafting him so early that he has to hit those numbers to justify the pick.

Josh Donaldson, Athletics - Daniel Kelley (follow @Danieltkelley)

Okay, pretty much everyone will have Miguel Cabrera first among third basemen, with David Wright, Adrian Beltre, and Evan Longoria the next group, in some order. After that, Donaldson, along with guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Carpenter, Pedro Alvarez, and a host of others, are fine candidates. Short of injury, you know what you're going to get from most of that group. With Donaldson? You can't confidently say he'll repeat 2013 or even close - not with his spotty history before last year and the possibility of regression. Even if it's possible Donaldson is good again, there's enough risk there that the other members of his "tier" are safer bets.

Mike Moustakas, Royals - Alex Kantecki (follow @rotodealer)

I'm washing my hands of Mike Moustakas. There. I've said it. I've long been a believer of Kansas City's "third baseman of the future," but I can't do it anymore. I once pegged Moustakas as an annual 30-home run threat. Then I compromised to 25. Now I'm praying for 20. At age-25, a breakout season is still possible, but it's not going to happen on my fake team. Moose Tacos is trending in the opposite direction, from a .263 BA in 2011 to a .242 BA in 2012 to a .236 BA in 2013. After hitting 20 home runs two seasons ago, Moustakas failed his believers with just 12 homers and 42 RBI in over 500 plate appearances. Drafting him as anything more than a late-round flier is a big risk, including if you're planning on sticking him in the corner infield.

Chase Headley, Padres - Jasper Scherer (follow @jaspsch)

Much of the case for Headley hinges upon his 2012 performance, which included a league-leading 115 RBI and a career-high .875 OPS. But his next-highest single-season OPS is over 100 points lower, at .773, and his numbers took a drastic nosedive last season. Headley's circumstances are also unfavorable in almost every way. He plays half his games in the hitter's nightmare that is Petco Park, and the Padres' lineup is among the worst in baseball (618 runs in 2013, 24th in the majors). Worse yet for Headley, his .250 BA last season came despite his .319 BABIP, a significant margin above the MLB average of .297, which would indicate his ceiling in 2014 is no better than his career batting average of .269. Add an alarmingly-high 23.7 K% in 2013 and a slightly-above-average ISO of .150 (despite power being Headley's primary asset), and the prospects don't look promising for the Padres third baseman in 2014.

Fantasy Rundown

If you are looking for more position rankings, or plain old fantasy baseball goodness, make sure you check out Fantasy Rundown, your one place to get all things fantasy.