The Brewers play at 8 pm or later on five of the next six nights. Adjust your sleep cycle accordingly.

The Brewers and Giants will be the final MLB game to get underway on Monday when Chad Gaudin (2.64 ERA, 3.28 FIP) takes the mound at 9:15 tonight. Gaudin is only 30 years old but is making the tenth start of his eleventh MLB season. He beat the Phillies on Wednesday, allowing a single run on four hits over seven innings.

Gaudin is having a career year for the Giants, and you have to wonder if some of it has to do with his home ballpark. He's allowing less than .6 home runs per nine innings this season, as compared to 1.00 for his career. Just 5.7% of the fly balls hit against him are leaving the yard. He'll throw a low-90's fastball about two thirds of the time, along with a pretty heavily-used slider and a changeup.

Gaudin last faced the Brewers as a reliever on April 16, allowing a single hit while pitching 2.1 scoreless innings with no walks and three strikeouts. The only current Brewer who has faced him ten times or more is Yuniesky Betancourt, who is a career .318/.318/.545 batter against him in 23 plate appearances.

He'll face Tyler Thornburg (2.22 ERA, 3.41 FIP), who slotted into this spot in the rotation when Yovani Gallardo went on the DL with his strained hamstring. Thornburg looked good in game two of the doubleheader on Tuesday, allowing four hits and three walks over six shutout innings with six strikeouts. He threw 93 pitches in that outing.

It remains to be seen how Thornburg will perform tonight, but at least we know he'll probably work fast. He's averaging just 20.7 seconds between pitches in 2013, a number we should probably appreciate when this game hits the middle innings around 10:30 Central time.

Thornburg has never faced the Giants in the majors, and didn't face AAA Fresno this year either. No current Giants have seen him before.

Tonight's lineup is as follows:

Norichika Aoki RF
Jean Segura SS
Jonathan Lucroy C
Carlos Gomez CF
Caleb Gindl LF
Juan Francisco 1B
Jeff Bianchi 3B
Scooter Gennett 2B
Tyler Thornburg P

And in the bullpen:

• John Axford pitched one inning (19 pitches) yesterday.
• Jim Henderson pitched one inning (18 pitches) yesterday.
• Michael Gonzalez pitched .2 innings (15 pitches) yesterday.
• Brandon Kintzler pitched 1.1 innings (13 pitches) yesterday.
• Rob Wooten pitched two innings (31 pitches) on Saturday.
• Alfredo Figaro and Burke Badenhop last pitched on Friday.

If you thought the last few weeks have been cool in Milwaukee, you should see them in San Francisco. Tonight's game time temperature is expected to be around 55 with 93% humidity. Winds will be blowing out to center.

Win: Santiago Casilla (5-2)
Loss: John Axford (5-5)
Save: Sergio Romo (27)

HR: Juan Francisco (15)

MVP: Juan Francisco (.329)
LVP: Rickie Weeks (-.255)

Fangraphs Win Expectancy Graph
Boxscore

The Brewers scored two earned runs tonight. The Giants only scored one. Unfortunately, the Giants also scored three unearned runs and beat the Brewers 4-2 in a game mired by another poor performance from the Brewers defense.

Tyler Thornburg used 102 pitches over six innings to hold the Giants to just one run. The Giants were able to score their lone run off Thornburg in the bottom of the fourth on an errant throw from Juan Francisco. With men on 1st and 2nd and only one out, Thornburg was able to get Gregor Blanco to ground to Francisco for what should have been an inning-ending double play, but Francisco's throw was low to Jean Segura and allowed Brandon Belt to score from second.

For the Giants, Gaudin was able to effectively shut the Brewers down until the seventh inning. Before the seventh, the only runner Gaudin allowed past second base was Scooter Gennett, who tripled to right center in the third only to be caught in a rundown on a failed squeeze attempt.

Jonathan Lucroy started off the seventh inning with a double to left center. After a flyout from Carlos Gomez, Gaudin walked Caleb Gindl and was removed from the game. The very next batter Juan Francisco hit a ball about 415 feet to right center that bounced over the wall for a ground-rule double scoring only one run to tie the game. After Jeff Bianchi walked to load the bases, pinch hitter Rickie Weeks grounded into a double play. Weeks appeared to beat the ball to the bag, but first base umpire Fieldin Culbreth didn't see it that way.

Trouble for the Brewers started immediately in the bottom of the eighth inning. John Axford walked the very first batter of the inning, Hunter Pence. After a flyout from Buster Posey, Axford started Pablo Sandoval off with three straight balls before Lucroy called for an intentional walk on his fourth pitch. Axford threw his next pitch to the right of Lucroy, which allowed Pence to move up to third.

Roenicke removed Axford in favor of Michael Gonzalez, who also walked his very first batter Brandon Belt to load the bases with only one out. Pinch hitter Jeff Francoeur singled to left to give the Giants a one-run lead. After a pop out to Lucroy, Gonzalez got a groundball to third base that went under Bianchi's glove and scored two runs to give the Giants a 4-1 lead.

The Brewers were able to get a run back on an opposite field home run to left center from Juan Francisco in the top of the ninth inning, but that would be the only run the Brewers would get off of Sergio Romo.

The Brewers will face the Giants again tomorrow night in the second game of their four game series. Wily Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers against Matt Cain for the Giants. Cain struggled in July with a 8.40 ERA, but was impressive in his one August start, giving up only one run in eight innings on August 1 against Philadelphia. First pitch is scheduled for 9:15 p.m.

Leonard Cohen: Justin Smoak (.190 WPA)

Alanis Morissette: Oliver Perez (-.332 WPA)

LL: Well hi there, thank you so much for agreeing to this interview with us.

Canadian guy: Of course! Let me buy you a pint! Labatts? Parallel 49? Or perhaps you prefer a whisky?

LL: That's very generous of you, but I'll have to pass. See, I--

Canadian guy: Nonsense! Barman! A round for the nice man at my table!

LL: Boy, they weren't kidding about you Canadians. Alright, so lets get this started. Tell me a little about yourself.

Canadian guy: Well, my buds call me Elliot, ya know. I always try and make a trip down to see the Jays when they come to this side of the world. It's not too far a jaunt from Vancouver, ya know.

LL: Oh, believe me, I know. It happens every time. But lets get to the point: what did you think about tonight's game?

Elliot: Oh, well it was a nice game. Real nice. That Iwa...Iwar...

LL: Iwakuma

Elliot: Yeah, Iwakuma. That guy you folks got here, he's a real star. Real nice pitcher.

LL: Yes, he is, and he was pretty good tonight. I don't know if you noticed, but he had a one-hitter going there for a while after giving up a single to the first batter he saw, Jose Reyes, and then only gave up two walks until Brett Lawrie singled in the 5th.

Elliot: Ah ya, Brett Lawrie. He's a real nice player. A little too intense for my tastes, but he sure can play baseball. He'll do some damage to the other team, ya know. Maybe just tone it down a little though, no?

LL: Oh, we know. That triple he hit in the top of the 8th inning after Justin Smoak finally put a team on the board with a solo home run in the 7th was pretty painful for us to see. That triple was sent in by the only other Blue Jay to have a hit, Jose Reyes. There was some interesting defense from the Mariners too, I don't know if you noticed that.

Elliot: Oh ya, gotta throw that ball!

LL:...Right. Yeah. Well, I felt a little weird in the 8th. We're pretty used to seeing your R.A. Dickey get a lot of passed balls, and he didn't disappoint tonight. But when Iwakuma was pulled and replaced by our bullpen, Yoervis Medina couldn't seem to put the ball into Humberto Quintero's glove. He loaded the bases on a walk to Edwin Encarnacion, and Oliver Perez came in to pick up two runs after Mark DeRosa singled in Reyes and Jose Bautista. What did you think of that little exchange?

Elliot: Tough luck, ya know. But that's what it's like with R.A. sometimes. He sure is a nice pitcher though. Isn't he a nice pitcher?

LL: Well, yeah, but that's kind of a different story. He did strike out 5 Mariners tonight, but he gave up 8 hits, two of which were to Humberto Quintero, who is having a productive couple of games. He hit a ground-rule double in the 3rd, and in the 7th, stretched a single into a double after Jose Bautista fumbled the ball in the outfield.

Elliot: Sometimes the cards fall your way, sometimes they fall the other way. It's life, ya know. You sure I can't get you a pint?

LL: No, I'm fine, seriously.

Elliot: Suit yourself, friend. You know, you all have such a nice stadium here. It's really nice to be able to come see the Jays in such a nice stadium. I come down every year with my whole family for these games, and It's nice to see so many blue jerseys and beer-loving Canada folk filling up the seats. I know we must be annoying, but its real nice of you folks to let us come enjoy a couple of games of baseball and let us drink your nice beer.

LL: There are a lot of you, yes. I don't even get it. The Blue Jays and the Mariners have the exact same record after tonight: 52-60. And yet, you still come out in droves like moths to a bright burning porchlight, as if your team was winning. It's always the same with the Red Sox, or the Cubs, or the damned Yankees fans that leave behind a trail of destruction and hollow Coors light bottles.

Elliot: Why a man would ever put that garbage in his body is beyond me.

LL: But those fans all come because it's a thing to like those teams, and it doesn't matter where you live. This Blue Jays thing is just because of Canada, right? There were those two World Series wins in the 90's, but other than that, it just doesn't add up.

Elliot: Oh, you Americans can be so intense sometimes. It's just a fun game, ya know. Steroids, drama, this and that. Don't get it.

LL: Did you even watch the baseball game?

Elliot: Not as such, no.

LL: Your Blue Jays won, sure, but how did you feel about some of the calls that were made tonight?

Elliot: Calls?

LL: Yes--it was a nightmare. Did you see those botched pickoff calls made late in the game by the umpiring crew?

Elliot: Oh, I think so. Remind me again what happened.

LL: It was egregious. Insane. A nightmare. First, 1st base umpire Quinn Wolcott missed a close pickoff that Justin Smoak easily got in on time. Ring a bell?

Elliot: Hmm...Maybe. Not really sure, but I am sure I need another beer here.

LL: Alright fine, you definitely saw that insane pickoff to 2nd from Oliver Perez in the 8th right?

Elliot: I think so, yeah...

LL: Jose Bautista had a sizable lead off the bag, and Perez threw to Brad Miller, who not only beat Bautista to the bag, but was positioned in between the two on the tag. Miller got his hand in, and had enough time to pull his mitt up to show he had the ball before Bautista was settled. 2nd base umpire Dale Scott inexplicably waved his hands to call Bautista safe, and Miller erupted. I erupted. He screamed incredulously and had to pull his mitt up to his mouth to stop from yelling the Fuck word in Dale Scott's face. Brad Miller! Little, innocent Brad Miller looked like he was ready to set a car on fire. And how about that incompetent CB Bucknor behind the plate? Huh? Just the worst.

Elliot: Oh, I don't know about that. I mean, sometimes you just have a bad day, right?

LL: No. Bullshit. Look at this strike zone. Look at these awful calls:

Elliot:

LL:

Elliot:

LL: ...well fine, but it felt a lot worse. He had that one middle of the zone pitch by Kuma called as a ball! Do you remember that? It's just obnoxious. This umpiring problem is getting out of hand.

Elliot: Friend, sometimes you just have to choose your battles. There's not much you can do about some bad calls in some sport games, ya know? Ya just gotta relax and take life as it comes. Well, look--if you don't want a beer, I guess I'll just have to order yours for myself now, won't I? Hahahahaha--

LL: No, stop. Listen. It's getting really old. I'm tired of this team losing, and I'm tired of them losing games they are supposed to win. These calls might not have changed the game, but they keep happening over and over, and it seems that it's only a matter of time until one of them turns a game. That's worth complaining about. That's worth being upset over. Do you get what I'm saying?

Elliot (to bartender): Yeah, I'll try this Chainbreaker fella here.

LL: You're not even listening, are you?

Elliot: Oh, I'm listening. I'm listening more than you would think. (leaning in, quietly) I've had a lot of beer today, friend. A lot. Of Beer. I stopped paying attention to this game about halfway through the fourth inning, simply because I couldn't even focus if I tried. Remember when we talked about how the Blue Jays and Mariners have the same record?

LL: Yeah, but--

Elliot: *lifts glass to mouth, drinks*

Elliot: *still drinking*

Elliot: *still drinking*

Elliot:*gulps, wipes chin*

Elliot: The universe has ways of working these things out, my friend. And sometimes, all we have is a nice frosty glass and warm stew in front of us.

LL: Maybe you're right. Maybe we are being a little too dramatic about all of this. There are two more games in this series, and if we take those two, going into the series against the Brewers we could--

Elliot: Now who's the one not listening?

*Might be a lie.

QUESTIONS:

1. Tom Wilhelmsen was sent down to Tacoma tonight. Even if Farquhar doesn't end up being the permanent closer, it seems there will be someone named before Wilhelmsen comes back up, which means that job has come and gone for the Bartender. What do you hope his role is when--and if--he comes back?

2. Most obnoxious blown call in Mariners history:

3. Are you tired of the PED talk? Or is this a conversation we still need to be having?

4. Favorite restaurant within walking distance to Safeco? Looking to try something new next time I drive up.

Today we mark a milestone in the career of Jean Segura: it was 1 year ago today that he made his debut with the Brewers. Last August 6th, at Cincinnati, Segura got the start at shortstop and went 0-4. He started all 3 games of the series and only collected one hit in the finale. He went on to finish out the year as the primary starting shortstop.

As we look back at Segura's first year in the big leagues, it may be helpful to know something about 23 year-olds, and to know something about shortstops.

First of all, shortstops are not very good hitters. In the major leagues last season they were in fact the worst hitting position, excluding pitchers-- they had the worst on-base percentage and the worst slugging percentage. As a group they batted 20367 times and hit .257/.310/.378. Baseball fans intuitively understand this, but a shortstop who is a league average hitter overall (in 2012 that was .255/.319/.405) is a shortstop who is a much better hitter than most other shortstops and is accordingly more valuable than a league-average hitter at any other position on the diamond.

23-year olds are also, as a rule, not very good hitters. The most detailed league age batting splits we have available are Baseball-Reference's, and they break down groups between 25 and under, 26-30, 31-35, and 36+. The 25 and under group hit .252/.313/.396 last year, which is to be expected from a group not yet in its prime years in the baseball sense-- those 3 numbers were also the lowest in each component of the slash line among any of the age split groups. Do not let the once in a generation influx of outliers like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper cloud judgment too much, it is extremely uncommon for 23-year olds to move to the top of their profession when general consensus is that a baseball player's prime falls in their late 20s and even early 30s.

The first part relates to how valuable Jean Segura already is. As a well above-average hitter and non-disaster defender, the answer is very valuable. The second part relates to how much better he could become as he gets closer to his prime years. The answer to that is that we have no idea how good he can be, but the fact that he has kept this performance up over a full year means that an even better year is within the realm of possibility.

It's an open question as to who might be the best shortstop in baseball right now with Troy Tulowitzki injured (it seems pretty clear he's an obvious choice when on the field). Here are a few candidates over the past 365 days, since Segura's debut with the Brewers, and their plate appearances and slash lines for the sake of comparison. Note that I am not dismissing the huge importance that relative defensive skill has in this discussion, feel free to browse Fangraphs and check out each player's UZR as I am not comfortable enough with each's defensive ability to offer any analysis beyond those numbers.

Jean Segura: 621 plate appearances, .300/.342/.434

Troy Tulowitzki, 328 PA, .321/.387/.590

Ian Desmond: 611 PA, .284/.340/.487

Jhonny Peralta: 641 PA, .271/.328/.417

Andrelton Simmons, 532 PA, .250/.293/.366

Elvis Andrus: 717 PA, .258/.313/.307

Jimmy Rollins: 693 PA, .256/.320/.389

Also of note:

JJ Hardy: 685 PA, .255/.294/.417

Alcides Escobar: 667 PA, .245/.276/.315

I'll stack up Segura's performance at his job against any other shortstop since the day he was called up. That is doubly encouraging, because not only does it mean the Brewers have one of the top shortstops in baseball, it means that there is still room for him to grow. He can round out the power and keep improving on defense. Look at some of the names listed above and remember them if someone tries to lump a bunch a group of young shortstops together-- Simmons, Andrus, Escobar, the field-- and realize that Mean Jean out hit them all in the last 162, his first 162, and he's just getting started.

This season, no one's really talking about Kyle Lohse. To me, that's pretty interesting, considering how much we were talking about Kyle Lohse during and after 2012. Coming off a season in which he won 16 games and took home a seventh-place finish in Cy Young voting, Lohse was hitting free agency at the most opportune time. Any time a pitcher coming off a 3.12 RA9 season is available as a free agent, you'd expect it to be a bull market.

The thing is, Lohse wasn't exactly a sure thing. His season, good as it was, was a fluke in many ways. He didn't strike out very many guys. He didn't have a track record beyond a No. 4 or No. 5 starter who could eat innings. In 2010, he was Kyle Lohse, the guy with the staggeringly-bad 167 ERA-.

Even worse, was the contract initially projected for Lohse: something living between three and five years, for something close to $13 to $15 million per year, depending on the length of the deal. He was looking to be one of the highest-paid starting pitchers during a relatively weak free agent period.

#dontsignlohse

Glenn DuPaul makes the case not to sign Kyle Lohse.

And with that in mind, the sabermetric community perked up. Most notably, Beyond the Box Score alumnus Glenn DuPaul started the #dontsignlohse Twitter campaign last offseason, raising the issue of Lohse's unimpressive strikeout numbers, and in turn, weak pFIP, kwERA, you name it. The predictors did not, and still do not, anticipate continued excellence from Lohse.

In kind of a weird turn of events, for the most part teams acted rationally. Instead of signing Lohse immediately and breaking the bank, Lohse turned out to be just about the last major free agent to sign, eventually inking a three-year, $33 million deal with the Brewers. Instead of paying a true premium to add a starter with regression in the future, the Brewers made a relatively painless investment ... one that only required about six wins over the next three years to come out as a fair deal in terms of value.

For the time being, that deal doesn't seem to be a mistake.

Lohse's seasonal RA9 of 3.42 is quite good, and it sits between Cliff Lee (3.37 RA9) and Derek Holland (3.37 RA9) above him, and Matt Moore (3.49 RA9) and Jhoulys Chacin (3.53 RA9) below him among qualified starting pitchers. Decent enough company, I suppose. But maybe he's benefitting from park factors, or team defense or something?

Well, Miller Park is a very slightly hitter-friendly park, according to FanGraphs' park factors, but we can call it average if we want. No big benefit there. And Milwaukee's defense has a 0.50 park-adjusted defensive efficiency according to Baseball Prospectus, so there's no huge advantage there. Now, I will say that since Lohse is a pretty extreme fly-ball pitcher, he may be getting a rather extreme benefit from having the rangy Carlos Gomez tracking down balls in center field ... but still, that's not an incredible advantage.

Photo credit: Mike McGinnis

I wish that FanGraphs ran RA9- (or just RA9, for that matter) on their player pages, but we can look at how Lohse's seasonal ERA- sits at 85, 15% better than league average. His FIP, much like Glenn predicted in December, has regressed to something ugly-ish, sitting at 4.15 and perhaps 9% worse than the league average. So who's right here? Is it the analyst(s) who predicted that Lohse would continue to struggle with DIPS, or the teams that valued Lohse as a guy who can outperform his peripherals?

I'm not sure -- but with this being the third year that Lohse has out-performed his FIP substantially, we may want to consider him one of the pitchers who's able to consistently work anti-DIPS magic. If you look at his 2.7 RA9-Wins over at FanGraphs, that puts him as already out-performing the value of a contract that pays him $11 million annually. If you were to go by his 1.1 fWAR, well, that's a little more dicey, but he still could come close to earning his yearly payment by the end of the season.

You could make a very compelling argument that Lohse is worth more than the $11 million AAV that he's currently being paid by the Brewers. If he has another year this good in 2014, then he'll probably have made that entire $33 million investment pay off in on-field value. But again, Lohse is pitching in his age-35 and age-36 seasons in the next two years, and he's got peripherals trending in the wrong direction (other than an increased ability to avoid walks, that is).

Whenever a player is signed to a multi-year contract, there's certainly an issue with trying to get the most out of a player in the early goings of the contract, to maximize value early on. While Lohse still has time to make the Brewers regret this deal (there's a non-zero chance he could post a negative fWAR in 2014 or 2015), right now the Crew looks like they made a sharp pickup. 200 league-average innings are incredibly valuable, and if Kyle Lohse really has found a way to out-perform stats like FIP and be, in practice, a little closer to a Cliff Lee or Matt Moore in terms of RA9, well, they probably even found a bargain. Even if he'll never have another 2012.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus.

Bryan Grosnick is the Managing Editor of Beyond The Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @bgrosnick.

More from Beyond the Box Score:

• Chris Johnson: modern-day BABIP king
• wOBA Against Leaderboards
• Lineouts! 08/06/13: Baseball's historic day, and Cabrera vs. Trout round 2
• The Smallest Sample Size 8/6/13: Upton Re-Emerges
• A simple strike zone formula and calculating plate discipline stats

The Streamer Report provides you with daily startng pitcher streaming selections for owners who prefer to stream starting pitchers on a daily basis. This report identifies starting pitchers who are owned in less than 50% of ESPN Yahoo leagues, and who either has a decent track record vs their opponent, has pitched well of late, or has a decent matchup.

Before I get into Wednesday's streamers, let's take a look at how Jason's and Alex's picks fared on Monday night:

Jose Quintana vs Yankees - 6.2 IP, 8 H, ER, BB, 5 K, W

Chad Gaudin vs Brewers - 6.1 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 8 K

Jeremy Guthrie vs Twins - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K, W

Combined Stats: 22 IP, 16 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 20 K, 2 W, 0.82 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

Wednesday's Streamers

Hector Santiago vs Yankees

Santiago is owned in just 6.2% of ESPN leagues and faces ARod and the Yankees on Wednesday night. Santiago has pitched better than his record this season, and faces Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia, who is struggling in a big way right now.

Eric Stults vs Orioles

Stults is owned in just 8% of ESPN leagues right now, and should be owned in more. He is having the best year of his career with a 8-10 record, 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 23 starts thus far, and owns a 5-2 record with a 2.35 ERA in 10 starts at home this season.

Samuel Deduno vs Royals

Deduno is owned in just 7.9% of ESPN leagues and faces a hot Royals team on Wednesday night, but I will side with Deduno stopping the streak. Deduno is 7-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He has given up two runs or less in seven of his last ten starts.

For the second straight night the Brewers and Giants will play the last MLB game of the day when Matt Cain (4.57 ERA, 3.87 FIP) takes the mound for San Francisco at 9:15 Central time tonight. Cain is making his 23rd start of a disappointing season, but has been very good lately: He held the Phillies to a single run on six hits over eight innings on Thursday and has a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts.

Cain's 4.57 ERA this season is more than a run higher than his career average, and his peripheral stats don't show a clear reason why. His strikeout rate (8.3 per nine innings) is actually his best since 2006, and his batting average on balls in play (.261) would suggest he hasn't been all that unlucky, either. He's pitched seven innings or more and allowed two runs or less in nine of his 22 starts this year, so the capacity for dominance is still there.

The Brewers roughed Cain up in their only other 2013 meeting on April 18, plating seven runs against him on seven hits over six innings. Jonathan Lucroy, Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun all homered in that game. Two active Brewers have faced Cain ten times or more:

He'll face Wily Peralta (4.57 ERA, 4.32 FIP), who has been struggling lately. Peralta last pitched against the Cubs on Wednesday and allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits over just five innings, allowing multiple home runs for the first time all year. After allowing just four earned runs over a span of 41.1 innings, he's allowed eight (plus four more unearned) in his last 8.2.

Peralta has done a pretty good job in his first full MLB season of limiting walks, which were a major concern for him in the minors. He walked 4.8 batters per nine innings in AAA last season, but has allowed just 3.6 free passes per nine innings in the majors in 2013. That helps to make up for the fact that his strikeout rate is also down.

The Giants knocked Peralta around on April 16 to the tune of six runs (five earned) on seven hits over just four innings. No current Giants have faced him ten times or more, of course.

As of this writing I haven't seen tonight's lineup, but we have been told to expect to see Jonathan Lucroy at first base. If you know the rest, please post it in the comments.

And in the bullpen:

• John Axford pitched .1 innings (14 pitches) last night, and also pitched on Sunday.
• Brandon Kintzler pitched one inning (seven pitches) last night, and also pitched on Sunday.
• Michael Gonzalez faced one batter (six pitches) last night, and also pitched on Sunday.
• Rob Wooten pitched .2 innings (eleven pitches) last night.
• Jim Henderson pitched one inning (18 pitches) on Sunday.
• Alfredo Figaro and Burke Badenhop last pitched on Friday.

Expect another cool, damp night on the west coast tonight. Look for a game-time temperature around 54 with humidity around 100% and winds blowing out to center.

Win: Wily Peralta (8-11)
Loss: Matt Cain (7-7)
Save: Jim Henderson (16)

HR: Carlos Gomez (18)

MVP: Rob Wooten (.200 WPA)
LVP: Brandon Kintzler (-.066 WPA)

Fangraphs Win Expectancy Graph
Boxscore

For the second straight night, both starting pitchers were able to stymie batters for the first six innings and turn the game into a battle of bullpens. This time, the Brewers were able to hold the lead and beat the Giants 3-1.

Wily Peralta was very good tonight, allowing only one earned run on five hits and two walks. Peralta struck out six batters tonight and made multiple batters look downright foolish at times. Throwing 108 pitches in 6.1 IP, Peralta looked a lot more like the dominant pitcher fans saw in mid-July rather than the pitcher they've seen struggle in his last two starts.

Carlos Gomez put the Brewers on the scoreboard in the top of the second with a solo home run to left center. The home run was Gomez's first home run since July 26th and his first hit since July 29th.

The Brewers scored again in the fourth due to some poor defense from the Giants. Norichika Aoki doubled to start the inning and Jean Segura moved him over to third. During Jonathan Lucroy's at-bat, Buster Posey attempted to pick off Aoki at third and threw the ball into left field allowing Aoki to score with ease from third.

Peralta avoided any damage as he escaped a jam in the fifth inning, but was unable to do the same thing in the seventh inning. After a Brandon Crawford double and an infield hit by Roger Kieschnick, Peralta was able to get Gregor Blanco to ground out before being removed for Brandon Kintzler. Joaquin Arias grounded to second baseman Rickie Weeks to score a run before Kintzler was able to induce a flyout to right field from Marco Scutaro.

Crawford doubled off of Kintzler to start the eighth inning before Ron Roenicke brought Rob Wooten in for the second straight night in a high leverage situation. Wooten was able to get both Hunter Pence and Buster Posey out without allowing Crawford to score before Roenicke brought in Jim Henderson for a four-out save. Henderson was able to get Pablo Sandoval to flyout weakly to left to get out of the eighth inning.

Before Henderson was able to take the mound in the ninth, the Brewers added an extra run thanks to some poor defense and good situational hitting from Lucroy. After an error allowed Aoki to move to third, Lucroy punched a ball to right field that allowed Aoki to score the Brewers' third run of the game.

With a two-run lead, Henderson reentered the game and worked around a walk to Blanco to record the first four-out save of his career.

Marco Estrada will take the mound for the Brewers tomorrow in the third game of their four game series against the Giants. The start will be Estrada's first for the Brewers since June 3rd against Oakland. Madison Bumgarner will be taking the mound for the Giants. First pitch is scheduled for 9:15 p.m.

Hey folks, Kyle woke up this morning to find he's one of the lucky few in Appleton to have power, but he's without internet, so there will be no Frosty Mug this AM. Instead, we'll do this community-style.

If you read something good and relevant this morning, share it in the comments.

To get you started:

In case you missed it last night, Scooter Gennett was optioned back to Nashville to make room for Marco Estrada, who was activated from the DL and will start tonight's game.

Here's last night's game recap

And Morineko's Minor League notes from the morning

Here are some interesting thoughts from Joe Posnanski on who should be in the HOF

And from the "Not related to baseball, but links you should pass to your boss" files, here's a lot of research on why you should nap every day

One of the nice things about baseball is that nothing is ever truly predictable. With that said, though, tonight's game doesn't look promising.

At 9:15 tonight the Giants will send Madison Bumgarner (2.69 ERA, 3.07 FIP) to the mound to attempt to continue his best MLB season. He's been excellent lately, and allowed a single run on seven hits over seven innings against the Rays on Friday, walking three and striking out eleven. Bumgarner has pitched seven innings or more and allowed two earned runs or less in nine consecutive starts. That's the longest streak in the majors since Pedro Martinez did it in 13 straight games in 1999-2000.

If you ever find yourself preparing to face Bumgarner, make sure you're ready to see lots of sliders. He throws the high-80's pitch almost 40% of the time, more often than he throws his low-90's fastball. He also has a curve and changeup. FanGraphs says his slider is worth roughly 1.6 runs per 100 pitches, which makes it one of the best pitches of its kind in baseball.

This is the first time the Brewers have faced Bumgarner in 2013, but he has a 1.25 ERA in five starts against them from 2010-12. Rickie Weeks is the only active Brewer who has faced him ten times or more, and he's hitting .353/.389/.353 in 18 PAs.

He'll face Marco Estrada (5.32 ERA, 4.74 FIP) in the 30-year-old righty's first MLB action since early June. Estrada has been on the DL for two full months with a hamstring issue and last pitched for AAA Nashville in a rehab appearance on Friday, allowing two runs on three hits over 2.2 innings.

It's tough to tell what to expect from Estrada in his first start back tonight, but it's probably reasonable to believe he'll only throw 4-5 innings after being limited to 50 pitches last time out. His velocity might be something to keep an eye on: His average fastball was sitting in the high 80's earlier this season after averaging 91 mph in 2011 and 90.2 in 2012.

Estrada has not faced the Giants this season, and was lifted after a single inning in his only start against them last year. No current Giants have faced him ten times or more.

(Lineup)

And in the bullpen:

• Brandon Kintzler pitched .2 innings (12 pitches) last night and has appeared in three consecutive games.
• Rob Wooten pitched .2 innings (six pitches) last night, and also pitched on Monday.
• Jim Henderson pitched 1.1 innings (25 pitches) last night.
• John Axford pitched .1 innings (14 pitches) on Monday.
• Michael Gonzalez faced one batter (six pitches) on Monday.
• Alfredo Figaro and Burke Badenhop last pitched on Friday.

Some things to read while building a better robot.

The Brewer bats stayed up late last night, turning a 0-0 scoreless tie in the seventh into a 6-1 win over the Giants. morineko has the recap, if you missed it.

The Brewers stayed in last night's game into the late innings largely because of a solid outing from Marco Estrada, whose only baserunner allowed over five innings was a single through the middle that Rickie Weeks almost corralled. Estrada threw 76 pitches in his first start since June. (h/t @AdamMcCalvy) @howiemag has a reminder that last night was supposed to be a rehab start.

The Brewers also got a big night from Khris Davis, who singled to start the rally in the eighth and homered off Barry Zito in the ninth. A big day for Khris Davis means it was also a big day for Noah, as demonstrated in our Tweet of the Day:

Excuse me sir, I'm going door-to-door to spread the word. Do you have a moment to talk about the power of Khris Davis?

— Noah Jarosh (@NoahJarosh) August 8, 2013

Nicholas Zettel of Disciples of Uecker has a look at the tools Davis and fellow new Brewer Caleb Gindl bring to the table.

Of course, last night's win came at a cost: Rickie Weeks left the game in the eighth inning and is likely headed to the DL with a hamstring strain. If he does go on the shelf, he'll be the fourth Brewer to suffer the same injury this season. Scooter Gennett had been optioned to Nashville (h/t @AdamMcCalvy) before last night's game to make room on the roster for Marco Estrada, but will likely be recalled today to take Weeks' place.

My cable was out so I didn't get to see last night's game, but with two last place teams on the field it's hardly surprising it got ugly. This paragraph from McCovey Chronicles' recap sums it up nicely:

This series promised to be a real awful-off, and it hasn't disappointed. It was like the buildup to the Beat It video. Roving gangs walking through the streets, marauding, picking up members, heading for an ultimate showdown. Except pretend the gangs were awful. One guy is carrying an umbrella instead of a tire iron. Another guy is trying to light his bottle of Fanta on fire because he doesn't understand how Molotov cocktails work. Another guy is Jeff Francoeur. And they all meet in the middle and ... well, whatever it is that awful gangs do. Slip a lot and fall down, i guess.

Other notes from the field:

• Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner allowed three earned runs last night for the first time in his last ten starts, and after the game he called out his teammates for poor defense behind him.
• Jeff Bianchi tied last night's game with an eighth inning infield single, and Joe Block noted on Twitter that his .313 batting average with runners in scoring position is the best of any Brewer.
• The Brewers have clinched a winning season against the Giants for the first time since 2008 (h/t @MikeVassallo13).

The Brewers can clinch a four game series win at 2:45 today when Donovan Hand takes on Tim Lincecum. Kevin Massoth has the MLB.com preview.

Looking ahead, the Brewers will head to Seattle following tonight's game and open a three-game set with the Mariners tomorrow. @MikeVassallo13 notes that tomorrow's game and six others the rest of the way will be bumped from WTMJ to WLWK in Milwaukee to make room for Packers coverage.

Looking further ahead, the starting rotation is about to get more reinforcements: Tom Gorzelanny threw a successful bullpen session on Wednesday and could rejoin the rotation this weekend, while Yovani Gallardo ran windsprints on his strained hamstring and reported no issues.

The Brewers' late rally last night meant they didn't need Jim Henderson, which is probably a good thing as he had just pitched multiple innings the night before. Ron Roenicke told reporters he doesn't plan on using Henderson to record four or more outs very often.

Jonathan Lucroy went 1-for-4 last night, but as usual his biggest contribution might have come behind the plate. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs rates Lucroy as baseball's fourth best pitch-framer this season, although he's behind some pretty unlikely names on that list.

The Brewers are bad this season and Doug Melvin is taking some heat for that, but Kristin Zenz of PocketDoppler.com has a reminder that an awful lot of Melvin's moves over the years have worked out. In a related note, Bryan Grosnick of Beyond the Box Score wonders if everyone was wrong about the Kyle Lohse signing.

Jean Segura went 1-for-3 with a walk last night and has a chance to be one of Melvin's lasting legacies. Tuesday was the first anniversary of his Brewer debut and Jordan took a look at his first year in the majors.

Carlos Gomez's contract extension is another feather in Melvin's camp at this point. Yesterday we started the conversation about the possibility he could be NL MVP.

Jean Francisco entered last night's game as part of a double switch and walked in his only plate appearance. He's hitting .240/.324/.481 in 51 games since joining the Brewers and the organization still isn't sure what they'll do with him in the long term.

In the minors:

• The affiliates went 3-2 last night and Renaldo Jenkins, Ruben Ozuna and Michael Ratterree each had three hits in Helena's 11-5 win over Missoula. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
• Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio has notes from Wisconsin's 3-1 loss to Peoria.
• Nashville broadcaster Jeff Hem has an interview with Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash.

You've probably already seen this, but here's a moment that will restore your faith in humanity: Arena Five tells a story about a "mystery man" who gave her young son a ball at Miller Park. John Steinmiller and Caitlin Moyer have invited all parties involved to come back to another game at Miller Park.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Designated pitcher Michael Schwimmer for assignment.
Indians: Placed pitcher Corey Kluber on the DL with a sprained finger and signed outfielder Ryan Raburn to a two-year, $4.85 million contract extension with a club option for 2016.
Mets: Placed reliever Bobby Parnell on the DL with a herniated disc in his neck.
Phillies: Designated outfielder Laynce Nix for assignment and signed second baseman Chase Utley to a two year, $27 million contract extension with multiple vesting options.
Rays: Placed outfielder Desmond Jennings on the DL with a broken finger.
Red Sox: Placed reliever Matt Thornton on the DL with an oblique strain.
Rockies: Placed outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (finger sprain) and pitcher Tyler Chatwood (elbow inflammation) on the DL.
Tigers: Released reliever Jose Valverde.
Twins: Are expected to place catcher Ryan Doumit on the DL with a concussion.

Let's so around the NL Central:

• The Pirates rode a solid start from Charlie Morton and Andrew McCutchen's 16th home run to a 4-2 win over the Marlins. They've now won four straight to open up a three game divisional lead, their largest of the season.
• They were able to gain a game on the Cardinals, who lost 13-4 to the Dodgers at home. St. Louis starter Shelby Miller faced just one batter in the game before leaving with an apparent elbow injury.
• The Reds kept pace with a 6-5 win over the A's. Jay Bruce hit his 24th home run in the game.
• The Cubs beat the Phillies 5-2 behind a pair of home runs from Donnie Murphy, who now has gone deep three times in three games as a Cub.
• The Brewers, of course, came from behind to beat the Giants 6-1.

You can read more about all of last night's action in Beyond the Box Score's Smallest Sample Size.

Here are today's updated standings and probables:

Outfielder Thomas Neal made his debut for the Cubs this week, becoming the 49th player to appear in a game for them this season. To put that in context, the Brewers have battled injuries all year but have still used just 38 players.

There are some truly awful teams around baseball this season, but there are also some remarkably hot teams right now. Earlier this week I mentioned that the Royals are on a roll, so it's only fair that I also mention that the Tigers and Braves have won eleven and 13 straight, respectively.

Today in former Brewers: Bluebird Banter used George Kottaras as the inspiration to construct a team full of players who rarely put the ball in play.

Today's sabermetric note comes from Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times, who has a great confirmation of something you may have already expected: When a team is forced to throw a lot of pitches in the first inning it significantly lowers their chances of winning the game.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I've found the ice cream man.

Drink up.

We're almost done with the pre-season prospect list reviews. We turn now to the Milwaukee Brewers. Remember please, this is the PRE-SEASON list. It is not a new list. These are pre-season rankings and grades.

This list was originally published January 6, 2013 and revised on January 15, 2013.

1) Wily Peralta, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. 8-11, 4.42 ERA in 24 major league starts, 90/54 K/BB in 136 innings, 143 hits. He's had some rough outings but he's had some very good ones, too, and has been the second-best starter on the team. I think he'll steadily improve.

2) Tyler Thornburg, RHP, Grade B: 5.79 ERA for Triple-A Nashville, with 87/29 K/BB in 79 innings, 90 hits. In the majors, a 1.78 ERA with 21/10 K/BB in 30 innings. His ERA at Nashville is misleadingly bad, his ERA in the majors is misleadingly good. I think he could perform something like Peralta next year and steadily improve from there.

3) Victor Roache, OF, Grade B: Hitting .246/.324/.447 with 18 homers, 38 walks, 107 strikeouts in 358 at-bats for Low-A Wisconsin. Got off to a very slow start, shaking off injury effects, but has hit much better lately, batting .284/.347/.557 in his last 45 games.

4) Clint Coulter, C, Grade B: Hitting .232/.317/.370 in 52 games split between Midwest League, Pioneer League, and Arizona Rookie League. Not hitting as well as expected and his defense has been a real struggle, with 19 passed balls and nine errors in just 37 defensive games.

5) Johnny Hellweg, RHP, Grade B-: 10-4, 2.44 ERA for Nashville, 71/62 K/BB in 106 innings. Got killed in major league trial, 13 walks and 19 hits in 10.2 innings.Ground ball type who can't get away with bad control.

6) Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Grade B-: 3.72 ERA in 116 innings for Double-A Huntsville, 73/55 K/BB, 90 hits 1.98 GO/AO. I'd like to see more strikeouts; projects as an inning-eater type rather than a dominator.

7) Mitch Haniger, OF, Grade B-: Hitting .264/.348/.441 with 28 doubles, 11 homers, 46 walks, 76 strikeouts in 390 at-bats between Low-A and High-A. Could end up as a tweener without enough power to start at a corner

8) Scooter Gennett, 2B, Grade B-: Line drive hitter batting .280/.327/.371 with 21 walks, 59 strikeouts in 321 at-bats for Nashville. Hit .231/.286/.404 in 52 at-bats in the majors.Scrappy type without big tools, has lost 10 points of batting average every time he gets promoted.

9) Hunter Morris, 1B, Grade B-: Hitting .242/.310/.472 with 22 homers, 37 walks, 92 strikeouts in 396 at-bats for Nashville. Respectable power, but batting average and OBP look insufficient to be a regular.

10) Ariel Pena, RHP, Grade B-: 4.33 ERA with 104/67 K/BB in 114 innings, 97 hits for Huntsville. No change in status really; has a live arm but command problems, probably more of a reliever than a starter at the highest levels.

11) Tyrone Taylor, OF, Grade B-: Hit .278/.349/.420 with 15 steals in 381 at-bats in Low-A before going on DL with hip injury. Supposed to be reactivated soon. Good tools, impressive first half until sagging before hitting the DL.

12) Mark Rogers, RHP, Grade C+: Hurt all year again, just activated for rehab work.

13) Hiram Burgos, RHP, Grade C+: Couldn't sustain his '12 breakthrough, hampered with shoulder problems. 6.44 ERA in six major league starts, 18/11 K/BB in 29 innings, currently on Nashville disabled list.

14) Khris Davis, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .255/.349/.473 in 69 games for Nashville, batting .286/.359/.600 in 35 major league at-bats.Has shown power at every level; scouts don't like him but he usually hits.

15) Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Grade C+: 3.17 ERA with 125/49 K/BB in 125 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 111 hits. Control will wobble at times but overall a solid year, stock up.

16) Drew Gagnon, RHP, Grade C+: 5.74 ERA with 89/40 K/BB in 100 innings between High-A and Double-A, 114 hits. Not a great year; component ratios are not impressive, disappointing overall.

17) Caleb Gindl, OF, Grade C+: Hit .294/.360/.489 in 76 games for Nashville, so far he's at .290/.364/.449 in 29 major league games covering 69 at-bats. Good start to his career, nothing left to prove in the minors with three solid Triple-A seasons under his belt.

18) David Goforth, RHP, Grade C+: 11-7, 3.38 ERA with 84/41 K/BB in 112 innings between High-A and Double-A, 93 hits. Fits Brewers pitching prospect mold perfectly: a solid arm from college ranks with unspectacular metrics but a chance to be a useful pitcher as a fourth starter type or a reliever.

19) Jorge Lopez, RHP, Grade C+: 5.22 ERA with 72/39 K/BB in 91 innings in Low-A, 91 hits. Projectable sort hasn't lived up to his full potential yet, but still has time at age 20.

20) Cameron Garfield, C, Grade C+ Hitting .242/.272/.370 with 13 walks, 85 strikeouts in 359 at-bats for High-A Brevard County, hasn't built on much stronger '12 season.

OTHER GRADE C+: Nick Bucci, RHP; Logan Schafer, OF.

OTHERS: Orlando Arcia, SS; Jed Bradley, LHP; Kentrail Davis, OF; Adam Giacalone, 1B: Kyle Heckathorn, RHP; Damien Magnifico, RHP; Chris McFarland, 2B; Casey Medlen, RHP; Matt Miller, RHP; Michael Olmsted, RHP; Jose Pena, OF; Chad Pierce, RHP; Josh Prince, OF; Nick Ramirez, 1B; Yadiel Rivera, SS; Jesus Sanchez, RHP; Cody Scarpetta, RHP; Josh Stinson, RHP; Michael Strong, LHP

A very depressing season in Milwaukee, with the big league team in last place, 49-65, and their best hitter turning into a giant distraction.

Not everything is bad, of course. Jean Segura isn't a technical rookie, but he was a key part of the Zack Greinke trade and has blossomed into one of the best shortstops in baseball. Peralta has been decent enough and should improve, and they've gotten some useful work out of spare parts like Donovan Hand and Brandon Kintzler. Caleb Gindl and Khris Davis have made the most out of limited playing time, enough to get noticed anyway.

The team really needs more impact talent but not much is close to the majors. Nashville and Huntsville have some interesting complementary players available but nobody stands out as a future star. Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Thornburg, Jungmann, Goforth. . .these guys all have inning-eating potential and should be serviceable in some role, but they aren't future aces.

There are more interesting bats in A-ball: Victor Roache, newly-acquired Nick Delmonico, Tyrone Taylor, Orlando Arcia, and outfielder Michael Reed are all players of interest, with Roache in particular capable of a big surge in 2014 as the wrist injury recedes further in the background. Not having a first round pick for 2013 was a handicap, but second-rounder Devin Williams is a quality high school arm, granted one who will need lots of development work.

I had the Brewers system ranked 23rd pre-season and I don't see much here to change that approximate ranking.

More from Minor League Ball:

• Prospect of the Day: Andrew Albers, LHP, Minnesota Twins
• Miami Marlins Top 20 2013 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
• Minor League Ball Gameday, August 7
• Chicago White Sox Top 20 2013 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
• Prospect of the Day: Wilmer Flores, INF, New York Mets
• Baseball and radio: the perfect marriage
• Minor League Ball Gameday, August 6
• Kansas City Royals Top 20 2013 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
• Prospect of the Day: Engel Beltre, OF, Texas Rangers
• Minor League Ball Gameday, August 5

If you had told me on Monday that the Brewers would win two games in San Francisco, I would've been happy with that.

Instead, today they'll get a shot at win #3 when they face Tim Lincecum (4.43 ERA, 3.62 FIP) at 2:45. Lincecum is not the pitcher he was when he won back-to-back Cy Youngs in the late '00s, but this season he's also better than he was when he led the NL in runs allowed in 2012. He pitched seven innings against the Rays on Saturday and allowed a run on six hits, walking one and striking out five.

Lincecum threw a no-hitter against the Padres four starts ago, and has thrown seven innings or more and allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts. In the other one, he got bombed to the tune of eight runs on nine hits over 3.2 innings. He could repeat any of those performances today and have it not be surprising. His fastball velocity is down in recent years and now sits around 90, and he'll pair it with changeups and sliders that combine to represent 40% of his arsenal.

Lincecum has not faced the Brewers this season but has seen them nine times in his career, including once last season. Two current Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

He'll face reliever-turned-starter Donovan Hand (3.60 ERA, 4.91 FIP), who could be getting ready to turn back into a reliever as Marco Estrada, Tom Gorzelanny and Yovani Gallardo all get healthy. Hand set a new career high by pitching seven innings against the Nationals on Saturday and allowed three runs on five hits, walking one and striking out three.

Hand has only allowed eight home runs over 50 innings this season, but six of them have come in his last three outings. Combine that with his low MLB strikeout rate (4.5 per nine innings) and you have a pitcher whose long term major league success is something people will be skeptical about. Yes, that was a dreadful sentence. Lay off me, I just got back from the dentist.

Hand has never faced the Giants in the majors.

Brewers lineup:

Aoki 9
Segura 6
Lucroy 2
Gomez 8
Gindl 7
Bianchi 4
Francisco 3
Betancourt 5
Hand 1

And in the bullpen:

• Alfredo Figaro pitched two innings (34 pitches) last night.
• Michael Gonzalez pitched one inning (17 pitches) last night.
• Burke Badenhop pitched one inning (10 pitches) last night.
• Jim Henderson pitched 1.1 innings (25 pitches) on Tuesday.
• Brandon Kintzler pitched .2 innings (12 pitches) on Tuesday.
• Rob Wooten pitched .2 innings (six pitches) on Tuesday.
• John Axford last pitched on Monday.

Today's game may be a daytime contest in San Francisco, but the weather has not changed from the night games. Expect a game time temperature around 58 with 90% humidity and winds blowing out to center for the fourth consecutive day.

The Chicago White Sox are going to finish the season with one of the bottom five records in all of baseball this season, a feat they haven't accomplished since 1989. Barring some sort of miracle run by the Sox or epic collapse by the Mets, Phillies, Twins, Angels, Brewers, or Giants, the Sox will have a top three draft pick for the first time since the 1977 draft. They had the top overall pick that year and drafted Harold Baines, which seemed to work out pretty well for everyone involved. So for most of us non-ancient fans, this is pretty much uncharted territory we're about to explore.

One of the more frustrating things about having to explain why I'm more than okay with the Sox more or less losing out for the rest of the season is the general assumption the layperson has about the MLB draft. I don't know how many times I've heard over the past month or so "Yeah, but draft position in the baseball draft doesn't really matter". I'm sorry, but that's never been true. It wasn't true before the new budgeting guidelines and it most definitely isn't true after. The Houston Astros had the first overall pick last year and were allotted $11,698,800 to spend on their first ten picks. The Twins, who drafted fourth, were given $8, 264,400 as their budget for signing ten picks. Having $3.6MM more to work with is a pretty huge difference, and that's without even accounting for the talent disparity.

There have been 49 first overall picks in MLB draft history. Of those 48 players (Danny Goodwin holds the rare distinction of being the only player drafted first twice), only six never played a single game in the majors. Two of those six were the last two years' top picks, Mark Appel and Carlos Correa, both of whom should move out of this sextet soon enough. The other four will be covered in greater detail later in this post. 87% of those drafted first overall have played in the majors and have averaged 20.7 bWAR for their careers. Obviously outliers like Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, and Ken Griffey Jr skew this figure, but the point remains the same: the cream usually rises to the top.

Let's compare those numbers to the second and third overall picks. 41 second round picks have made the majors, good for an 83% success rate (four that haven't have been the most recent four, so this number should change). So the rate of reaching the majors isn't too much lower than that of the first overall picks, but the average bWAR takes a pretty substantial dive down to 14.2. This is largely due to the fact that the second overall pick has only produced one Hall of Famer, Reggie Jackson. The third pick is slightly more interesting, to me at least. Almost the same amount of third picks have reached the majors as second picks thus far, with only the 2013 (Jonathan Gray) and 2009 (Donovan Tate) being the recent draft choices to not have done so yet. The 81% success rate has resulted in an average of 12.3 bWAR per draftee, so that's still pretty great and the number should go up as Manny Machado continues to evolve.

The Sox getting the first overall pick would be huge for helping accelerate the needed minor league turnaround. There's of course the chance that Rick Hahn could manage to draft the sixth first overall pick to be worth a negative WAR, but the odds are against it. More interesting to me is the four who never made the majors. Of those four, Tim Beckham still has a shot. The first choice in the 2008 draft has been in AAA since late 2011 and could get a cup of coffee this September. The two picks after him have combined to play more than 800 games combined, though to varying levels of effectiveness (Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer).

The other three stories are a bit more sad. Sometimes choosing the local high school product instead of the expensive college pitcher works out pretty well (Joe Mauer instead of Mark Prior). And then sometimes you have the 2004 draft and the Padres pick Matt Bush instead of Justin Verlander. Hell, even the third pick would have been a better choice and he was Phil Humber. Bush had a minor league career OPS of .569. He never made it past AA, tried being converted into a pitcher and failed and had numerous legal issues and is currently behind bars in Florida until 2016.

Brien Taylor was supposed to be the next Doc Gooden, drafted 1st overall by the Yankees in 1991. He was doing well enough in the minors until he decided to confront a man who fought his brother. He wound up dislocating his left shoulder and tearing the labrum. His fastball was no longer fast and he couldn't control his curveball. He hung around the minors until 2000, but never made it past A ball again. He was arrested for trafficking cocaine in 2012 and is currently in jail in New Jersey. The picks immediately after Taylor didn't amount to much either, but at least Mike Kelly and Dave McCarty made the majors.

Steve Chilcott was only the second first overall pick ever. The New York Mets chose the high school catcher, allowing Reggie Jackson to fall to the Athletics with the second pick. Mr. October wound up being an established regular for the A's as soon as 1968. Sure the Mets won it all in 1969, but it's not like they couldn't have used Jackson's 5.2 bWAR in right field or his stellar production for the next ten years or so. And in all fairness, Chilcott's career ended more in line with Taylor than Bush. A baserunnning injury in 1967 all but ruined his right shoulder, which is a fairly important body part for a catcher. He was out of baseball five years later.

The first overall pick isn't without risk, but the success rate is so much higher than any other pick that it's absurd to suggest draft position is somehow unimportant in the MLB draft. The Sox landing a top three pick would be a tremendous boon, so you might want to get comfortable cheering for a little bit more 2013 failure than you'd normally be okay with. It's for the greater good.

Before the days of Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Gonzalez, before Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki, before Matt Holliday, even before Todd Helton there was a group of stars that established what the Colorado Rockies were as a franchise.

It was the era before the humidor, when out-slugging the opposition was the name of the game, so the teams stars were exclusively guys who could hit the ball out of the ballpark, Dante Bichette, Ellis Burks, Vinny Castilla, Andres Galarraga and Larry Walker, the Blake Street Bombers. Here's a look back at each of their Rockies careers.

Dante Bichette

Best Season as a Rockie (1995): .340/.364/.620/.984, 40 HR, 128 RBI, 102 R, 197 H, 38 2B, 131 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Rockies Career (1993-1999): .316/.352/.540/.892, 201 HR, 826 RBI, 1,278 H, 270 2B, 105 SB, 109 wRC+, 6.8 fWAR

Let's get this out of the way first, there are two things Dante Bichette did not do well, take a walk and play defense. That said, whenever "Sledgehammer" by Peter Gabriel played and Bichette stepped to the plate, you knew there was a chance the ball was going over the wall.

Bichette actually did not begin his Rockies career at Coors Field, joining the team on November 17, 1992 in a trade with the Brewers for fellow outfielder Kevin Reimer. Reimer only played one more year in the big leagues while Bichette set a career high for home runs in each of his two seasons at Mile High Stadium, hitting 21 and 27, respectively in 1993 and 1994.

Bichette opened Coors Field in style, hitting a walk-off home run in the 14th inning against the Mets' Mike Remlinger. It was the beginning of a spectacular 1995 season for Bichette that saw him lead the league in hits (197), home runs (40) and runs batted in (128), finishing second in MVP voting to the Reds' Barry Larkin (even though Greg Maddux probably should have won the award.)

He followed up in 1996 with his third straight All-Star appearance and a career-high 141 RBIs (with a .890 OPS), and he again led the league in hits with 219 in 1998. Paul Swydan summed up Bichette's final season with the Rockies in this great article from Fangraphs. He was traded to the Reds after the 1999 season for Stan Belinda and Jeffrey Hammonds.

Ellis Burks

Best Season as a Rockie (1996): .344/.408/.639/1.047, 40 HR, 128 RBI, 142 R, 211 H, 32 SB, 151 wRC+, 7.2 fWAR
Rockies Career (1994-1998): .306/.378/.579/.957, 115 HR, 337 RBI, 558 H, 104 2B, 52 SB, 127 wRC+, 11.0 fWAR

Burks is sometimes forgotten among the Blake Street Bombers, as he only had 1,821 at bats with the Rockies. He signed a three-year, $10.7 million free agent contract with the Rockies after the 1993 season, but was limited to just 468 plate appearances in his first two seasons with the club.

When Burks finally did get a full season's worth of playing time in 1996, he put up the fifth-best fWAR season by a hitter in Rockies history. He led the league with 392 total bases and runs scored, hit for a .344 average and 1.047 OPS and, along with Bichette the same year, became the first Rockie in the 30-30 club with 40 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He finished third in NL MVP voting behind Ken Caminity and Mike Piazza. Burks followed his 1996 season up with a .934 OPS and 32 home runs in 1997 despite playing only 119 games.

Burks was traded to the Giants in July of 1998 for a package that featured Darryl Hamilton.

Vinny Castilla

Best Season as a Rockie (1998): .319/.362/.589/.951, 46 HR, 144 RBI, 108 R, 206 H, 28 2B, 121 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR
Rockies Career (1993-1999, 2004, 2006): .294/.340/.530/.870, 239 HR, 745 RBI, 1,206 H, 208 2B, 101 wRC+, 16.0 fWAR

Castilla was the Rockies 20th pick of the 1992 expansion draft. He played in a utility role during the team's first two seasons, hitting 12 home runs in 467 at bats while playing all four spots on the infield.

Castilla broke into the Rockies lineup at third base in 1995 and immediately started a stretch of five straight years in which he hit 30 home runs. He made the first of two All-Star appearances in 1995, hitting .309 with 32 home runs and 90 RBI. He hit .304 with 40 home runs and 113 RBI in both 1996 and 1997, though his OPS was slightly higher in '97 and his WAR was slightly better in '96.

In 1998, Castilla put together his best season at age 30. He played in all 162 games, earning his second All-Star appearance, hitting .319 with a career-high 46 home runs and 144 RBI, finishing with a .951 OPS and 11th in NL MVP voting. After his numbers dipped a bit in 1999, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for pitcher Rolando Arrojo and infielder Aaron Ledesma.

Castilla returned to the Rockies in 2004 at age 36 on a one-year deal and promptly led the league with 131 RBI. He hit .271 with 35 home runs and an .867 OPS before moving on to Washington. He returned to the Rockies one last time at the end of the 2006 season to retire with the team.

Andres Galarraga

Best Season as a Rockie (1993): .370/.403/.602/1.005, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 71 R, 174 H, 35 2B, 150 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR
Rockies Career (1993-1997): .316/.367/.577/.944, 172 HR, 579 RBI, 843 H, 155 2B, 124 wRC+, 13.4 fWAR

The Big Cat was one of the Rockies first free agent signings, joining the team in November 1992 on a one-year, $850,000 deal.

Galarraga earned that money and then some in the team's inaugural season, winning the NL batting title, hitting .370 in 120 games with 22 home runs, a career-high 98 RBI and a 1.005 OPS. The Rockies then rewarded him with a four-year, $17.2 million contract.

He finished 10th in NL MVP voting for the second straight year in 1994 with 31 home runs and a .949 OPS in the strike-shortened season. He really broke out in 1996 with 47 homers, 150 RBI and 18 stolen bases along with a .958 OPS, finishing sixth in the MVP race. He posted a .318 average with 41 home runs and 141 RBI in his contract year of 1997. One of his home runs in 1997 was particularly memorable, as it landed approximately on the moon.

The Rockies elected not to re-sign Galarraga after the '97 season, seeing as they had this young kid named Helton to play first base in 1998.

Larry Walker

Best Season as a Rockie (1997): .366/.452/.720/1.172, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 143 R, 208 H, 33 SB, 177 wRC+, 9.1 fWAR
Rockies Career (1995-2004): .334/.426/.618/1.044, 258 HR, 848 RBI, 1,361 H, 297 2B, 126 SB 147 wRC+, 44.3 fWAR

The Rockies made a big free agent splash, signing Walker away from the Expos after the players' strike ended in 1995, signing him to a lucrative four-year contract. He re-paid them by helping lead the team to the playoffs, hitting .306 with a .988 OPS, 36 home runs and 101 RBI.

After struggling with injuries in 1996, Walker won the 1997 NL MVP with the single highest fWAR a Rockies hitter has ever posted in a season (with 9.1), which is no small feat. Walker hit .366 in '97, with a 1.172 OPS, 49 home runs and 130 RBI. He had 409 total bases in 1997, tied for the 18 most in a season in MLB history, bolstered by 99 extra-base hits. For good measure, he stole 33 bases and won a Gold Glove.

The 1997 season was the first of three consecutive years in which Walker hit at least .360 with an OPS of at least 1.075. It's no wonder the Rockies re-signed Walker to a six-year, $75 million deal after the 1999 season.

Walker again missed a significant portion of the 2000 season with injuries, but returned with a vengeance in 2001, winning his third batting title with a .350 average to go with 38 home runs, 123 RBI and 7.6 fWAR.

He hit a total of 48 home runs from 2002-2004 before being traded to the Cardinals, ending the era of the Blake Street Bombers in Colorado.

W: Tim Lincecum (6-11)
L: Donovan Hand (0-4)

HR: Brandon Belt (12)

MVP: Khris Davis (.019)
LVP: Donovan Hand (-.300, -.279 pitching, -.021 hitting)

win probability graph | box score

Donovan Hand continued his tendency towards giving up home runs and the offense ran into the buzz saw that was Tim Lincecum this afternoon in San Francisco.

The Brewers managed just one hit against Timmy, who left the game after eight innings. Donovan Hand struggled in the bottom of the first, giving up a three-run home run to Brandon Belt. He settled down afterwards, but the damage was done. Hand left the game after five innings, having given up four runs on seven hits, with four walks and four strikeouts.

Khris Davis pinch hit in the ninth and led off with a double. This led to a revolving door of Giants pitchers in the ninth, where we saw three pitchers in the span of five pitchers. It ended with Sergio Romo in a non-save situation giving up a single to Jean Segura, scoring Davis to end the shut out. That small glimmer of offense was promptly ended by Lucroy and Gomez strikeouts to end the game.

You'll notice that lone at-bat made Davis the WPA MVP for the game. That's how bad things were.

Carlos Gomez added two more catches to his Gold Glove resume, one an over the shoulder and one a tumbling catch.

While you have to understand that the Brewers have a lot of Thursday travel days, it turns out they're fairly awful on Thursdays. According to today's game thread, they haven't won on Thursday since April 18th. They are 1-10 on Thursdays this season, according to Adam McCalvy.

After the game the team announced they have put Rickie Weeks on the 15 day DL and recalled Scooter Gennett

CBS's Danny Knobler had this to report on Thursday afternoon:

Biggest name of note who went on waivers yesterday: Kyle Lohse. Claiming period for him ends tomorrow.

— Danny Knobler (@DannyKnoblerCBS) August 8, 2013

Lohse has pitched very well this season, amassing a 3.23 ERA over 139.1 innings.  His 4.16 FIP tells a slightly different story, but one would think he's pitched well enough to be of interest to contenders.  Of course, if they weren't willing to pony up in July, they probably aren't now.

As MLB Trade Rumors mentions, Lohse is owed very little this year (much of his salary is deferred), with another $22 million due over the next two seasons.  Lohse will be 36 by the time the deal is up.

Welcome to waiver season, where teams put their players on waivers and see who is interested. This process is mostly procedural, but sometimes trades can take place. When a team puts a player on waivers, they have 47 hours to be claimed. Once claimed, the claiming team has 48.5 hours to make a deal or the player's team can pull him back or hand him and his salary over for nothing.

• Mark DeRosa was claimed off waivers, but the Blue Jays have no intention of trading him.
• Mike Gonzalez of the Brewers has been put on waivers.
• Aaron Harang of the Mariners has been put on waivers.
• Dan Haren has been put on waivers.
• Brandon League of the Dodgers has been put on waivers.
• Kyle Lohse has been put on waivers.
• Placido Polanco of the Marlins has been put on waivers.
• Alex Rios has been claimed by the Rangers, who previously tried to acquire him at the deadline.
• Jimmy Rollins has cleared waivers, but won't be going anywhere.
• Adam Rosales, freshly claimed by the Rangers from the Athletics has been claimed right back by Oakland.
• Casper Wells was claimed off waivers by the Phillies and will join the team soon.
• Michael Youngcleared waivers, so the Phillies can now trade him to any team as long as he waives his no trade clause.

More from Pinstriped Bible:

• Donald Trump comments on Alex Rodriguez, doesn't know what he's talking about
• How bad are the Yankees at developing young pitchers? Part Three
• MLB Reverse Standings: One way to cope with the 2013 Yankees season
• Pinstripe Alley Top 100 Yankees: #95 Lou Piniella
• Yankees prospects: Francisco Rondon is putting himself back on the map

Some things to read while running out for more oregano.

The Brewers wrapped up a four-game set in San Francisco with a whimper yesterday, managing just three hits in a 4-1 loss. Nicole has the recap, if you missed it.

The Brewers played a man short yesterday before placing Rickie Weeks on the DL with a hamstring strain following the game. Scooter Gennett has been recalled from Nashville and will rejoin the team tonight. Weeks' injury complicated the Brewers' roster plans a bit: Aramis Ramirez had been expected to come off the DL tonight but now is expected to wait at least one more day.

Other notes from the field:

• Brandon Belt's first inning home run off Donovan Hand yesterday was the Giants' first long ball at home in 101 innings. (h/t @joe_block)
• The Brewers are now 1-10 on Thursdays this season. (h/t @AdamMcCalvy)
• The Brewers need 14 more wins in their final 47 games to avoid the second 100 loss season in franchise history.

Let's wrap up the Giants series with a look at this week's home runs, with help from Hit Tracker and Larry Granillo of Wezen-ball (Tuesday and Wednesday):

Gomez's trot Tuesday was the quickest in all of baseball.

The Brewers' final west coast swing of 2013 continues tonight as they open a series in Seattle, with Kyle Lohse taking on Joe Saunders at 9:10. Cash Kruth and Jason Mastrodonato teamed up for the MLB.com preview.

At this point it appears likely Lohse will be a Brewer for the relative long haul, but that could change: Yesterday word leaked out that the Brewers had placed Lohse on revocable trade waivers, which would allow them to deal him to a claiming team or to any team if he goes unclaimed. This transaction by itself isn't major news, but it does give us something to keep an eye on.

The Brewers' visit to Seattle tonight will be the first time these two teams have played in Seattle since 1997, and the first time since the Brewers moved to the NL. Joe Block notes on Twitter that, following this season, San Diego at Toronto will be the only possible interleague matchup that has still never happened.

If you only click one link in today's Mug, I'd make it this one: Eno Sarris of FanGraphs sat down with Jonathan Lucroy this week to talk about the art of pitch receiving and why he's consistently seen as one of baseball's best in that category.

Juan Francisco had one of the Brewers' three hits yesterday, but also had a pair of strikeouts. Noah mentioned a resemblance you may also have noticed in our Tweet of the Day:

Realization: Juan Francisco is basically Russell Branyan. Through first 260 games: Branyan .227/.309/.465, Francisco .250/.306/.443.

— Noah Jarosh (@NoahJarosh) August 8, 2013

Carlos Gomez went 0-for-4 yesterday and also struck out three times. The Brewer Nation has video from an MLB Network feature on Gomez's breakout season.

Entering play tonight the Brewers are fifth in the NL with 47 sac bunts this season, a slight improvement over their #2 ranking from a year ago. If you're interested in joining the crusade to stop wasting outs, then Brian Kenny of MLB Network has a t-shirt you should probably see.

In the minors:

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a great look back at his 2013 preseason top prospects list with a brief paragraph on the season each player has experienced.
• The affiliates went 3-3 yesterday but with a little luck it could have been 5-1. Huntsville was a 2-1 loser in 13 innings and Wisconsin dropped a 2-1 game in ten. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
• Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio has highlights and more from the aforementioned Wisconsin game.
• Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com has a scouting report on 2013 top draft pick Devin Williams that's encouraging in more or less every way.

If you'd like more Brewer coverage today but you're sick of reading, I'll be making my weekly appearance on The Home Stretch with Justin Hull on 95.3 FM WSCO in Appleton at 3:20 today. We're shifting the timing a bit so I can hang out with Justin at his pool party at Tanner's Sports Grill and Bar in Kimberly, so stop out and have some fun with us if you're in the area.

Around baseball:

Astros: Designated pitcher Travis Blackley for assignment.
Athletics: Claimed infielder Adam Rosales off waivers from the Rangers.
Cubs: Placed pitcher Matt Guerrier (elbow discomfort) and outfielder Thomas Neal (dislocated shoulder) on the DL.
Giants: Designated catcher Guillermo Quiroz for assignment.
Indians: Designated 1B/3B Mark Reynolds for assignment.
Phillies: Claimed outfielder Casper Wells off waivers from the White Sox.

Let's go around the NL Central:

• The Pirates needed ten innings to do it, but wrapped up a sweep of the Marlins with a 5-4 win yesterday. Russell Martin's walkoff single gave Pittsburgh 70 wins on the season.
• The Cardinals dropped another game in the standings after losing 5-1 to the red-hot Dodgers. Catcher A.J. Ellis' three-run homer was the big blow,
• The Phillies blew out the Cubs 12-1, plating nine runs on eleven hits off Jeff Samardzija. Anthony Rizzo's lone hit in the game was his 32nd double, giving him the NL's second-highest total.
• The Brewers, of course, lost to the Giants.
• The Reds were off Thursday.

You can read more about those games and all of last night's action in Beyond the Box Score's Smallest Sample Size.

Here are today's standings and probables:

The Brewers recently celebrated the 20th anniversary of the first on-field Sausage Race, and it's an event that has been frequently imitated across baseball in the years that followed. Frank Jackson of The Hardball Times, though, has suggestions to further expand the field with races for all 30 teams.

Today In Brewer History was off this morning, but we do have a bunch of stuff to cover in today's bits of history:

• If you missed it yesterday, go back and check out Nicole's post on the AAGPBL reenactment taking place at Alverno on Sunday. Nicole did a great job hearing from lots of people involved regarding the league and the reasons why they re-enact it.
• Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times notes that today is the 21st anniversary of the Brewers retiring Rollie Fingers' number in 1992 and the 19th anniversary of Teddy Higuera's final MLB game in 1994.
• nullacct continued his "Face of the Franchise" series by naming Ben Oglivie the face of the 1970's Brewers.
• Today is Ted Simmons' 64th birthday, and Plunk Everyone notes that his 39 career HBP are the second most ever for a player born on August 9.
• Today is also Scott Karl's 42nd birthday, and his 33 career plunkings are the fourth most ever for a pitcher born on this day.
• Finally, today is 1994-95 Brewer Bob Scanlan's 47th birthday, and Gaslamp Ball has a post commemorating the career of the current Padres broadcaster.

Now, if you'll excuse me, it's still real to me.

Drink up.

Here are this week's BotW nominees:

Khris Davisappeared in five games and had five hits this week, including a double and a home run. He hit .500/.545/.900 in eleven plate appearances and was worth +.140 WPA.

Juan Franciscohad five hits in six games this week, and all of them went for extra bases (four doubles and a home run). He hit .357/.471/.857 this week and was worth +.543 WPA.

Jim Hendersonrecorded two saves in two appearances this week, including a four out save on Tuesday. He pitched 2.1 hitless, scoreless innings with a walk and three strikeouts for +.204 WPA.

Brandon Kintzlerpitched in four games this week and did not allow a run, giving up two hits over four innings with no walks and two strikeouts. He was worth +.113 WPA this week.

Wily Peraltapitched 6.1 innings on Tuesday for the win, allowing a single run on five hits with two walks and six strikeouts. He was worth +.160 WPA this week.

Honorable mentions this week: Marco Estrada, Tyler Thornburg, Rob Wooten