Here is the early working research list for Milwaukee Brewers prospects.
Here is the early working research list for Milwaukee Brewers prospects. I had 44 names and have cut it back to 38. Even this list has some marginal guys like Matt Clark and Hector Gomez, older minor league journeyman types although both are on the 40-man roster and might contribute something. I suppose I could include Shane Peterson for the same reason. Sometimes those guys turn out to be useful (Khris Davis) even if their tools don't excite scouts.
Three one-time Milwaukee Braves and one Wisconsin native make up our list of retired players who died in 2014.
As has become an annual tradition, I wanted to take a moment before turning the calendar to 2015 to remember the members of Wisconsin's baseball history that we've lost over the last year. Before we start the list, however, we have something to be thankful for.
I started doing the prep work for this post a couple of weeks ago, and noticed something I shared on Twitter:
According to @baseball_ref , 93 retired MLB players died in 2013. Only 62 have died this year. Probably some reporting lag, but interesting.
For much more from Kyle, check out his new home at BrewersFrostyMug.net.
It's been almost two weeks since I wrote that, but the list has not grown. B-Ref still shows just 62 players that passed away in 2014, down a third since a year ago. Locally we have even more to celebrate: There's not a single former Milwaukee Brewer on the list. Last year we mourned the passing of five former Brewers, including George Scott and Mike Hegan, and 12 players overall. This year we have just four.
Frank Torre, age 82, passed away on September 13
Frank Torre is perhaps best remembered for being the older brother of longtime MLB player and manager Joe Torre, but also had a pretty solid MLB career in his own right. He debuted in the majors as a member of the Milwaukee Braves in 1956 and played first base there for five seasons, including World Series appearances in 1957 and 1958. Two of his three hits in the 1957 series were home runs, and he drove in a run during the 5-0 win over the Yankees in Game Seven, the win that clinched Milwaukee's only World Series championship.
Jack Dittmer, age 86, passed away on May 31
Jack Dittmer made his major league debut as a member of the 1952 Boston Braves and followed the team to Milwaukee, where he played a career-high 138 games as a second baseman in 1953. All told Dittmer spent five of his six MLB seasons with the Braves (including four seasons in Milwaukee) and hit .232 with a .280 on-base percentage and .334 slugging in 379 appearances.
Roberto Vargas, age 84, passed away on May 27
A native of Santurce, Puerto Rico (also the hometown of Juan Nieves), all 25 of Vargas' MLB relief appearances came as a member of the 1955 Milwaukee Braves. The Brewers had selected Vargas from the Indians in the 1954 Rule 5 draft but he struggled with the transition to the majors, posting an 8.76 ERA over 24.2 innings of work. Vargas remained in the organization and returned to the minors in 1956, but never earned another call to the big leagues.
Red Wilson, age 85, passed away on August 8
Red Wilson was a Milwaukee native, an alum of UW-Madison and caught ten seasons in the majors between 1951-60 as a member of three franchises, including seven years with the Tigers. Wilson appeared in more than 78 games just once in his career but held his own at the plate, hitting .258 with a .338 on-base percentage and .355 slugging as a part-time playing catcher.
Wilson was one of just thirty UW-Madison alums to play in the majors. Just eleven of them are still alive, according to Baseball Reference.
Hoping to get the book done on time and avoid going over the page limit, I am getting more aggressive about chopping down on Grade C prospects. The Brewers stand at 36 prospects, broken down as follows:
Grade A: Zero Grade A-: Zero Grade B+: Zero Grade B: Three Grade B-: Seven Grade C+: Nine Grade C: 17
There is some play there, two of the Bs could wind up at B+.
The Brewers have shown they can find bargain talents like Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis, and Mike Fiers. Now they are adding some star-caliber talents to the mix. When will these efforts bear fruit?
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2015 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often!
All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS
Grade A prospects are the elite.In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much.A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Orlando Arcia, SS, Grade B/Borderline B+. Age 20. Held his own against older competition in Florida State League, hitting .289/.346/.392 with 31 steals, 42 walks, 65 strikeouts in 498 at-bats. Very skilled defensively, future will depend on how much offensive growth he shows. Could be similar to Alcides Escobar.
2) Tyrone Taylor, OF, Grade B: Age 20, hit .278/.331/.396 with 36 doubles, six homers, 22 steals, 39 walks, 58 strikeouts in 507 at-bats in High-A. Numbers are solid although I’d like to see more power. Everyone who sees Taylor in person comes away impressed and full of praise for his athleticism and improving instincts. There is some risk he could become a "tweener" if the power doesn’t blossom further. 3) Monte Harrison, OF, Grade B: Age 19, 2014 second-round pick with clear first-round tools, hit .261/.402/.339 with 31 walks, 48 strikeouts, 32 steals in 34 attempts in rookie ball. Harrison has the best set of physical tools in the entire system. He was supposed to be very raw but he showed a fine sense of the strike zone in his debut, leading the AZL in walks and avoiding excessive strikeouts. Brilliant use of speed on the bases and the bat has more raw power than the early SLG implies. Upside: Andrew McCutchen. Downside: Bubba Starling. Grade B is aggressive given risks but will play a hunch that this toolsy outfielder will develop skills. 4) Clint Coulter, OF-C, Grade B: Age 21, hit .287/.410/.520 with 22 homers, 73 walks, 103 strikeouts in 429 at-bats repeating Low-A. Moved to the outfield in instructional league. The power looks legitimate to me, we’ll have to see about OBP/average but Midwest League observers seemed to think the improvement was real despite league-repeater status. Has ranked lower on other lists but seems like a blossom candidate to me moving from behind the plate.
5) Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Grade B-: Age 25, posted 3.57 ERA with 147/61 K/BB in 154 innings, 140 hits between Double-A and Triple-A. Stereotyped Brewers pitching prospect: low-90s heat, decent slider and changeup, command can wobble some, eats innings. Ready for a trial as a number four starter.
6) Devin Williams, RHP, Grade B-: Age 20, higher ceiling than Jungmann, posted 4.48 ERA with 66/20 K/BB in 66 innings in Pioneer League, 74 hits. Projectable sort, could develop into a number three (or maybe a number two) starter, command of fastball and change-up took a step forward last year, breaking ball still in progress.
7) Taylor Williams, RHP, Grade B-: Age 23, spectacular in Low-A (2.36 ERA, 112/23 K/BB in 107 innings, 78 hits) but human in High-A (4.26 ERA, 25/5 K/BB in 25 innings, 29 hits). Fourth round pick from Kent State in 2013, short for a right-hander at 5-11 but can hit 94 and has solid secondaries. Some see him as a future reliever due to size.
8) Tyler Wagner, RHP, Grade B-: Age 23, posted 1.86 ERA with 118/48 K/BB in 150 innings in High-A, 118 hits. Successful season although ERA was misleadingly good. Heavy sinker in mid-90s, good slider, change-up remains mediocre, some see him as a reliever but he’s shown good durability in rotation. Another typical Brewers pitching prospect, workhorse type.
9) Kodi Medeiros, LHP. Grade B-: Age 18, first-rounder in 2014 from high school in Hawaii, posted 7.13 ERA with 26/13 K/BB in 18 innings in rookie ball, 24 hits. Tough to grade and rank, as he did not show the same stuff in pro ball that he demonstrated in high school. Outstanding movement on 94 MPH fastball, nasty breaking ball before the draft. Not as crisp after he signed, velocity and command both disappointing. Too early and too young to panic.
10) Jorge Lopez, RHP, Grade C+: Age 21, 4.58 ERA with 119/46 K/BB in 138 innings in High-A, 144 hits. Projectable, velocity hasn’t picked up as hoped but still in low-90s, good curveball, change-up needs polish. I really liked him when he was drafted out of high school in 2011 but his progress has been slow. Slow, not zero though. Still young.
Jorge Lopez, photo by Mark Cunningham, Getty Images
11) Wei-Chung Wang, LHP, Grade C+: Age 22, Rule 5 pick from Pirates system spent most of ’14 on big league roster with a few "rehab" outings in the minors. Not ready for the Show jumping from rookie ball, 10.90 ERA with 13/8 K/BB in 17 innings, 30 hits, but that’s not unexpected. Can develop into three-pitch command-oriented starter.
12) David Goforth, RHP, Grade C+: Age 26, completed conversion to relief, 3.76 ERA with 46/29 K/BB in 65 innings in Double-A, 60 hits, 27 saves. Another arm with heavy stuff. I like him more than the numbers say I should.
ANALYST NOTE: From this point things are "mushy."Please don't get bent out of shape about exact ordering.
13) Victor Roache, OF, Grade C+: Age 23, hit .226/.298/.400 with 18 homers, 37 walks, 138 strikeouts in 433 at-bats in High-A. Still shows outstanding raw power but contact problems have held him back, certainly far from being a complete hitter and we can’t use the 2012 wrist injury as an excuse any longer.
14) Gilbert Lara, 3B, Grade C+: Age 17, signed for$3,100,000 from the Dominican Republic this past summer. Hasn’t played yet but reportedly looked excellent in instructional league. Everyone agrees he has tons of power and a good throwing arm, but opinions on pure hitting skills and defensive home are mixed. Hard to rank someone like this with conflicting scouting reports and no objective data to analyze, but a year from now he could be number one on the list.
15) Jason Rogers, 3B-OF, Grade C+/Borderline C: Age 26, minor league vet has blossomed over last two years, hit .296/.365/.489 with 18 homers, 53 walks, 94 strikeouts in Double-A/Triple-A. Lacks exciting tools but has usually hit well and is versatile with the glove. Could be a solid role player, steal in the 32nd round in 2010.
Jason Rogers, photo by Ron Tringali, Getty Images
16) Kyle Wren, OF, Grade C+/Borderline C: Age 23, acquired from Braves this past fall, would have been awkward situation to stay in Atlanta as the son of fired GM. Hit .290/.350/.365 with 46 steals in 496 at-bats in High-A/Double-A. Good glove, fast, no power, fourth outfielder profile.
17) Miguel Diaz, RHP, Grade C/Borderline C+: Age 20, high-ceiling arm with mid-90s fastball, posted 4.21 ERA with 53/20 K/BB in 47 innings in rookie ball. Needs a lot of work with slider and change-up. Would rank higher on pure arm strength but a long way off. Slot him higher if you are patient and willing to make an upside play.
18) Jacob Gatewood, SS, Grade C/Borderline C+:Age 19, supplemental round pick in 2014 draft, hit just .206/.249/.279 with 71 strikeouts in 204 innings in rookie ball. Gatewood has enormous raw power but issues with pitch recognition and too much swing/miss were a massive problem in his debut, as predicted by many scouts pre-draft. Defense was better than expected but it is the bat that will make or break him. 19) Tyler Cravy, RHP, Grade C/Borderline C+: Age 25, posted 1.63 ERA with 76/20 K/BB in 83 innings at three levels, 52 hits allowed. A Mike Fiers-type, nothing special with velocity but mixes in some good breaking pitches and pace-changers, throws strikes and can out-pitch many arms with better pedigrees.
20) Jed Bradley, LHP, Grade C: Age 24, former top prospect out of Georgia Tech has fallen out of favor with scouts after failing to reach the majors as quickly as expected as a 2011 first-round pick. He has made a bit of progress however, posting 3.91 ERA with 125/46 K/BB in 147 innings last year, 160 hits, but a very high ground ball rate. Could still sneak up on us as a fifth starter type.
The Brewers made a concerted effort to add more upside to the system the last three years. It is too soon to know if these efforts will bear fruit but on paper it looks good. The 2014 draft in particular could have excellent results if Monte Harrison, Jacob Gatewood, and Kodi Medeiros reach their potential. They also made a big splash in Latin America with the signing of Gilbert Lara. Upside is the obvious emphasis here.
The Brewers have shown they can find under-rated bargain talents like Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis and Mike Fiers. Jason Rogers, strike-throwing lefty Hobbs Johnson, reliever Michael Strong, Braves refugee Kyle Wren, and right-hander Tyler Cravy could all contribute as solid role player types along those lines. Identifying bargain talents that other teams pass on is a nice skill to have.
There is some good balance. Orlando Arcia and Tyrone Taylor provide defense and athleticism at key positions. If you buy into Clint Coulter’s breakthrough as being real (and I do), there’s a power bat for the corner. Victor Roache could still turn into something. More depth is needed.
The pitching side features several potential mid-rotation starters. Jungmann is ready for a trial now, while Tyler Wagner and Taylor Williams aren’t far behind, though both could wind up as relievers. Devin Williams, Jorge Lopez, and Wei-Chung Wang add to the potential starter mix but will need more time. There are relief arms as well, David Goforth being the most advanced. If Johnny Hellweg comes back strong from Tommy John surgery, so much the better.
Overall this strikes me as an average farm system that could look much better a year from now if the new 2014 signees reach their considerable ceilings. More depth is needed, but the Brewers have a knack for focusing on what players can do rather than on what they can’t, which helps uncover bargains. Doing that at the same time you add high-upside talents is a recipe for success.
It isn’t an either-or thing: a good organization should be able to find both bargains and stars. The Brewers have shown they can find the former. Now we’ll see about the later.
We kicked off a new series yesterday with a look back at 2014's longest home runs. It started with the tenth longest home run, a solo shot from Aramis Ramirez.
Rickie Weeks remains a free agent, and we don't know how much longer he will stay on the market. Kyle Lesniewski of Reviewing the Brew had some thoughts on how Rickie Weeks has hurt his value on the market.
The Tigers fortify their bullpen with the addition of the left-handed Gorzelanny.
The Detroit Tigers added further depth to their bullpen on Tuesday, signing free agent southpaw Tom Gorzelanny to a one-year deal, the club announced. As MLB.com's Jason Beck adds, the 32-year-old Gorzelanny is expected to earn approximately $1 million. To make room for Gorzelanny, the Tigers designated right-hander Luke Putkonen for assignment.
Gorzelanny saw his 2014 season limited to just 23 games due to shoulder surgery prior to the season. However, he still managed to post an excellent 0.86 ERA to go along with a 2.99 FIP, 9.9 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 21.0 innings. He has been rather impressive over the past three years with the Nationals and Brewers, posting a cumulative 3.13 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3.84 FIP, and 2.43 K/9. A former starter, Gorzelanny is also capable of serving as a spot starter if needed, though outside of a strong 2007 campaign and a decent 2010 one, he hasn't proven to be a preferable option.
Gorzelanny fits in nicely in the Tigers' bullpen, giving the club a second left-hander to pair with Blaine Hardy. He figures to serve in a seventh-inning role, while also giving Detroit another fill-in starting option to cushion their rather thin crop of starting pitchers.
The 28-year-old Putkonen was selected by Detroit in the third round of the 2007 draft, and reached the majors in 2012, subsequently earning big league time in each of the past three seasons. In 48.1 career major league innings, he owns a 4.66 ERA and 4.31 FIP. He was limited to just 9.1 innings pitched last season (both minors and majors) due to a bone spur in his right elbow that led to surgery. He is a likely candidate to be picked up due to middle relief potential and some minor success at the major league level, as evidenced by a 3.03 ERA in 29.2 innings with the Tigers in 2013.
Adam McCalvy looks at two milestones from Randy Johnson: The only home run he hit (off of former Brewer Doug Davis), and the only home run he ever gave up to a pitcher (hit by Yovani Gallardo).
The Padres signed starting pitcher Josh Johnson to a one-year deal, with a base salary of $1 million and an additional $6.25 million available in incentives. Jake Goebbert was designated for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster.
The Diamondbacks signed infielder Nick Punto to a minor-league deal. He is still receiving $2.75 million from the Athletics this season, and the Diamondbacks will only pay him the major-league minimum if he makes the roster.
Today's lessons include a dangerous waiting game and more.
Brewers News & Analysis
The Brewers haven't made a major move this offseason since the Adam Lind trade, as they are choosing to wait for prices to fall before making a move. While this may save the team some money, Derek notes that the Brewers are playing a dangerous game by waiting to sign relievers.
Our series of the longest home runs of 2014 continued with the eighth longest home run, a leadoff solo home run by Carlos Gomez.
Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors has some updates on the NL Central, including progress on an extension for Johnny Cueto, a possible international signing for the Pirates, and the direction of the Reds.
I'll admit, I'm not exactly thrilled with the idea of adding him, but we could use more arms to compete for a spot in the pen. My worry, he walked 5.9/9 innings last season. We couldn't keep Jeremy Jeffress around because he walked too many. Career he's allowed 4.4 walks/9. He does get a lot of strikeouts, last year 10.4/9.
Axford is 31, he'll be 32 April. He has 116 career saves (if that matters to you) and 46 in 2011 for the Brewers. He can throw hard, Fangraphs lists him as averaging 94.4 mph on his fastball last year. And he is Canadian.
In other Blue Jays news, Shi Davidi tells us that the minor league deal the Jays had with outfield Ryan Kalish has fallen through. Davidi doesn't tell us why. Perhaps there is a physical issue, though since it was only a minor league contract, I don't know what sort of injury would void the contract.
Kalish would have given us some much need outfield depth. A left-handed bat who can play all 3 outfield spots, wouldn't be a bad thing to have. His career .245/.293/.350 slash line doesn't make you think you'll love to see him in the Jays outfield, but he did give us an option if one of the regular outfielder was injured.
I wonder what the problem was.
And, Jon Heyman also tweeted:
takashi toritani, ss who's played 1,444 straight games for hanshin, stayed w/ hanshin. blue jays never made official offer.
I was sure that Alex said that the Jays had made an offer. In fact it surprised me that Alex was so clear about it, normally he's pretty hard to read. I guess it isn't important, but I would like to know if Alex was lying to us.
Ray offers his take on the top 50 picks according to the early NFBC ADP rankings.
The calendar has turned to January and fantasy football season is over, so it is time for the focus to change to preparing for fantasy baseball drafts over the next three months. Most of us don't have our drafts until March, I have four in March, but there are some drafts happening right now in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues. That is, unless you are participating in fantasy hockey, basketball or English Premier League fantasy leagues.
With that said, the NFBC publishes their early average draft position (ADP) rankings over at NESN for our reading pleasure. The NFBC has their own site, and I am sure they publish more up to date rankings their, but NESN offers it for free, so I am going to use their site for the purposes of this article.
The NFBC leagues are 15 team leagues, most of which are mixed leagues, but they do have NL only and AL only leagues as well. And there is money involved, so I imagine the competition is very good. I play in three home money leagues where the entrance fees are $150 and higher. I started out playing in keeper money leagues, can understand it isn't for everyone.
The top ten picks in the NFBC rankings are not very surprising with the exception of Astros second baseman Jose Altuve. Altuve had a terrific 2014 season, leading the majors in batting average and the American League in stolen bases, but I like to draft power early, and he hits for little power.
Pitching goes early
We started seeing the trend toward drafting pitching early last season, as there were on-going debates about where to draft Clayton Kershaw. It is not surprising to see him going off the board at #3 overall, and I know many don't like taking pitchers that early. He has been one of the most consistent fantasy players in the game over the last three years, and actually has gotten better each year. To expect him to improve upon his 2014 season would be asking a lot, but it isn't out of the question.
In these rankings, we see two starters in the top ten, and 12 starters in the top 50. I am not sure that is a record, but off the top of my head, I don't recall seeing that many starters taken in the first 50 picks. Pitching has become more and more dominant over the last 4-5 years, with the rise in strikeouts and lowering of ERAs, pitchers have become the 30 home run, 100 RBI hitters of yesteryear.
There is the old saying that drafting a closer in the first few rounds of drafts is not recommended, or something like that. Well, here we see Chapman and Kimbrel are going off the board in the third round, on average, in the NFBC drafts. Way too high for me, but can see the reasoning since they are the two most consistent closers in the game, and their stats are worthy of an early selection if you want consistency in the closer position on your roster. With that said, too early for me.
Braun is coming off a down, injury-filled 2014 season but had offseason surgery to repair the thumb injury that bothered him so much at the plate last season. The NFBC rankings reflect the fact that fantasy owners are confident he can return to being the hitter he was before the injury, but he used to be an annual first round pick. I am not sure he will return to being the 30+-100+-.300 hitter he was several years ago, but he can be a 25-90-.285 hitter and still be very valuable.
Today's lessons include another top 10 prospects list, how to get an advantage in roster construction, and making a playoff run in 2015.
Brewers News & Analysis
The Baseball America prospect rankings for the Brewers came out on Friday, and Tyrone Taylor topped the list for the Brewers. Noah broke down the top ten prospects on their list, with Orlando Arcia and Clint Coulter rounding out the top three.
How nice would it be to have a player that could pitch and hit, potentially giving the Brewers a roster advantage? Fred Hofstetter asked this question on Saturday, and looked back at some players who contributed as a pitcher and a hitter at the same time. While these players aren't as common as they used to be, finding one could give a team a slight advantage in roster construction.
Our Brew Crew Blasts series continued on Friday with the seventh longest home run of 2014, a solo home run from Scooter Gennett that barely left Chase Field.
Jean Segura has been playing in the Dominican League playoffs to get some work in before spring training, and has been doing well so far. On Friday, Jim Goulart noted that Jean Segura had a 5-for-5 day in Thursday's playoff game.
The Brewers had collapses in 2007 and 2014, but followed the collapse in 2007 with a playoff run in 2008. Does that mean we could see a run to the playoffs in 2015? Kyle Lesniewski of Reviewing the Brew looks at the similarities between the 2008 and 2015 teams and analyzes the Brewers chances of making a similar run.
Hank the Ballpark Pup spent the weekend in Los Angeles as he attended the World Dog Awards. Cait Covers The Bases has some pictures of Hank's departure. The awards will be televised on the CW Network on Thursday at 7 pm, where we will find out if Hank was voted Dog of the Year.
Around Baseball
Roster Moves
On Saturday, news of a five player trade between the Athletics and Rays came out. The Athletics receive Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist, and the Rays receive John Jaso, Boog Powell, and Daniel Robertson. Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs has an initial reaction to the trade.
Brad Johnson of MLB Trade Rumors has a few notes on the relief pitching market, which includes John Axford's desire to compete for the closer role and Burke Badenhop's opinion on the market.
Today's lessons include an updated look at the Brewers payroll, analysis of the Brewers in different pitch counts, and more.
Brewers News and Analysis
With the arbitration deadline nearing, Derek put out an updated payroll this morning, and explained what the arbitration deadline means for the Brewers.
Some home runs need a bit of luck to them to get out of the ballpark. The Brewers had five home runs like that in 2014.
We're halfway through the longest shots of 2014 now, but before we reach the top five, we're going to take another quick break. While most home runs get out of the park legitimately, some can't leave without a little bit of luck on the batter's side. According to ESPN Home Run Tracker, five home runs hit by the Brewers in 2014 were considered "Lucky". Here are those five home runs:
Ryan Braun, April 8 @ Philadelphia Phillies
Many of us remember Ryan Braun's game from April 8 of this season. In his first game on the road since returning from suspension, the crowd was actively rooting against Braun, but it didn't stop him from having a great game by hitting three home runs. However, the second of those home runs might have been a little lucky for Braun. He hit it to right-center field, and it just cleared the fence at 378 feet. It was barely affected by external factors, only gaining 1 foot due to wind. However, that foot (along with a high fence to stop the fielder from making a jumping catch) was just enough to get it out. It was also lucky he was in Philadelphia on that day, as the home run would have only been one in three MLB parks on a regular day.
Aramis Ramirez, June 12 @ New York Mets
Aramis Ramirez is the only player to make two appearances in this list. His first appearance came against the Jonathon Niese of the Mets on June 12. While the home run measured at 402 feet, it was wind aided and gained 15 feet because of it. The standard distance of 387 feet would have been enough for it to be a home run in only four MLB ballparks.
Jean Segura, June 20 @ Colorado Rockies
The last three home runs on the list all have one thing in common: They were all hit at Coors Field. It was a weekend where everything aligned for the offense to explode. The first of these home runs came from Jean Segura. His home run off of Christian Bergman was impressive by distance, measuring at 429 feet. However, it gained 9 feet due to wind, 2 feet to temperature, and 17 feet to altitude. This resulted in a true distance of 402 feet. Despite this, it was still a legitimate home run in most parks, as it would have cleared the fences in 26 parks on a normal day.
Khris Davis, June 20 @ Colorado Rockies
While Jean Segura's home run may have been a legitimate home run under normal circumstances, Khris Davis definitely got the benefit of the conditions on his home run. Also hit off of Christian Bergman, it measured at 409 feet, but got some major boosts from the conditions. It gained 13 feet due to wind, 5 feet due to the temperature and 29 feet because of the altitude. On a normal day, this hit only travels 366 feet, and would have cleared the fences in only 2 MLB ballparks.
Aramis Ramirez, June 21 @ Colorado Rockies
This may be the luckiest home run that the Brewers hit in 2014. At first glance, this would look like any ordinary home run. Hit off of Christian Friedrich, it's classified as "just enough" on ESPN Home Run Tracker, but was hit a legitimate distance of 427 feet. However, as you saw in the previous two home runs, factors were on Ramirez's side with this shot. The home run gained 13 feet of distance due to wind, 3 feet due to temperature, and 17 feet due to altitude. On a normal day, this home run should have only traveled 397 feet, and would not have been a home run in any MLB ballpark. It is the definition of a lucky home run.
The Brewers announced their minor league coaching staffs for the 2015 season yesterday. Brad Krause of Miller Park Prospects has the roster of each team's coaching staff.
The Diamondbacks have signed Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez for a record $8.27 million bonus. Lopez chose the Diamondbacks over bigger offers for an easier path to the big leagues. The bonus will count against the Diamondbacks' international pool, meaning they will now be under restrictions for the next two signing periods.
The Braves signed Wandy Rodriguez to a minor-league deal. He had been reported to get a major-league deal with the Phillies, but may have failed his physical there. Rodriguez is expected to compete for a rotation spot in spring training.
Details have come out about changes in the way agents are certified, and Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has the details. The changes will make it harder for independent agents to get started in MLB, and favor corporate agencies.
It sure is nice when recently written topics come up again almost immediately. Earlier on Wednesday, I wrote about the win-now teams, noting that the Astros were slowly creeping toward the right (and and right) side of the scale. Last week, I wrote about the baffling Braves and their baffling offseason.
Today, then, let's explore the even-more-win-now Astros and the dear-goodness-why Braves, who made a trade. The Braves got three prospects. The Astros got Evan Gattis. This means it's time to review the deal instantly, because there's no way this snap judgement could be wrong.
Starting with the Astros perspective:
Houston Astros
They have a major league roster. An honest-to-goodness major league roster. They have a pitching staff filled with pitchers that other teams would actually want. They have a lineup filled with hitters that other teams would actually want. This is a marked difference, and for all the nonsense that they've been through (or put others through) when it comes to how they evaluate players and draft picks, they're on the right track.
That doesn't mean they're a win-now team, though. Not that close. Which means we're right to question their decision to trade three prospects for a major league player. More than that, a major league player with some easily identifiable flaws and warts. What are they thinking?
First, it's easy to think about Gattis as a veteran, a player who isn't going to change until he slowly gets worse. But he's almost closer to a prospect than a veteran. He's not a free agent for four years, and he's still making close to the minimum for next season. And while he's 28 right now, there's an asterisk that goes along with that. He's an unusual 28. He didn't reach the low minors until he was 23 because he left baseball completely at 19, before returning to D-II college ball years later. It's not out of the question that he continues following an atypical development curve.
Second, the deal allows the Astros to deal Dexter Fowler for prospects. Fowler is a free agent after the season. Long-term solution in, short-term concern out. Or if the Astros are getting bold, it'll allow them to deal Jason Castro for even better prospects.
The Astros are closer than you might think. The early returns from the FanGraphs projected standings have the Astros being comparable to teams like the Brewers, White Sox, and Padres -- teams that are thinking, hoping, praying they're contenders in 2015. That's before the Gattis deal.
It doesn't have to be a win-now deal, though. Power is rare; the Astros just got power. The Astros didn't have a long-term solution for left field; now they do. The prospects might pan out, but I'll take the under on any of them having a career as good as Gattis, especially over the next four years.
Atlanta Braves
Oh, Braves. You're supposed to progress over the decades like Jared Leto in My So Called Life, getting more mature and handsome every year. Not Leto in Requiem for a Dream. What happened to you?
I don't mind the decision to rebuild. If the Braves wanted to deal expiring contracts like Jason Heyward and Justin Upton for prospects, move the team's window up a couple years once they realized they weren't going to sign the pair, that makes sense. If they wanted to take it a step further and Billy Beane a player away when he was still cheap, following the better-a-year-too-early philosophy that tends to bring back better prospects, that would have been a bold, understandable decision. All-in on the rebuild.
Nick Markakis, though.
The Markakis deal is the one that will wake me up confused at night, even though I don't root for any of the teams involved.
What is ... why did ... the reasoning makes me ... I don't get it. Make the argument for Markasis on the Braves now. Pick any angle. Jump to as many conclusions as you need. Justify $44 million for an average outfielder who is unlikely to do anything but decline over the life of his deal on a team that just traded away an outfield. An entire outfield. They dealt away just about the only power available on the trade market, and they did it with a focus on the distant future more than the near future.
Explain that deal now. Before you answer, remember the spinal fusion surgery!
The Braves were in a tough spot because they gave ill-advised deals to Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton, and Chris Johnson. Why another one, right before the rebuild? The Markakis deal is the Doug Fister trade of the 2014/2015 offseason, the one that will wake me up confused at night, even though I don't root for any of the teams involved.
As for the prospects, well, they might work out unless they don't, and the Braves have a pretty good track record in that regard. Michael Foltynewicz is a big arm, a prototypical righty who started the 2014 season as one of the top-100 prospects in baseball. He had a rough year, but if the Braves see the same glimmer in his arm, I'm not going to argue. Andrew Thurman is less of a known quantity, but again, I'll trust the Braves when it comes to pitching. Rio Ruiz is young for his league, and the doubles hint at burgeoning power. He could be the star of the deal in four years.
In this kind of deal, it's foolish to review the prospects as if you're a seer, a brilliant person who is clearly too smart to work for a baseball team. The Braves see potential, and they've been good at realizing that potential over the last year or 20. But it's not too early to wonder why they got a 31-year-old outfielder to win now at market prices, when they were planning to blow the danged thing up and go on a mini-rebuild.
The Astros got better, possibly at the expense of the future. The Braves possibly improved their ability to contend in the future, but at the expense of the present. The Astros' decision doesn't make sense until you take a closer look. The Braves' decision almost makes sense until you take a closer look at their offseason. The two teams aren't exactly ships passing in the night -- don't forget the projectable talent the Braves still have locked up long term -- but our abilities to figure out the moves of either team are trending in different directions.
Maybe Stephen Drew won't be a dumpsterfire in 2015? We look back on past acquisitions to give us a glimmer of hope about the Yankees' newest signing.
The signing of Stephen Drew caused a fair amount of confusion and anger among Yankee fans last week. Many hoped that Drew would not be seen in pinstripes in 2015 after hitting just .150/.219/.271 in his stint in New York last season. But here he is, back on the Yankees. This signing many very well not work out. There's a decently good chance it won't. But who knows, maybe it could. For this week's Pinstripe Q&A, I asked the PSA staff when they were expecting the worst about an acquisition, only to be pleasantly surprised.
Q: The Yankees signed Stephen Drew. Many fans are down on the move, so to make them feel a little better, what's one Yankees acquisition you were pessimistic about at first, but worked out just fine?
Jason
I was really, really, reeeeeeeally against the Jacoby Ellsbury signing. I thought it was the worst idea ever and the end of the world. Turns out he's pretty good at baseball and I have no issues rooting for him anymore. He had a good year last year, but I'm hoping for an even better one in 2015. More stolen bases, more home runs. Let's do it.
John
I'm usually optimistic about everything. I feel somewhat vindicated by major moves I can remember opposing: trading for and extending Randy Johnson instead of signing Carlos Beltran; trading Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown; the long string of non-moves in 2011, 2012 and 2013 while players like Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee (I know I know, they tried), Zack Grienke, Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes signed other places.
Here's one: I was never crazy about the Johnny Damon signing. I understood it, so I wouldn't quite say I was opposed, but we had a potential CF in Melky Cabrera. But we were running Andy Philips out at 1B (sub .300 OBP), so I would have spent the money trying to pry Paul Konerko away from the world champion White Sox.
It worked out.
But it's a bit of a false equivalency, because Drew doesn't have nearly the track record nor the ceiling of Johnny Damon.
I have been mostly pleased with how quickly the Yankees have given up on ineffective bandaids like Casey McGehee, Reid Brignac, or Dean Anna. If Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder makes a strong case that they should be the starting 2B, I trust the Yankees to give them the job and put Drew on the bench or cut him.
Andrew
Raul Ibanez. I feel like a lot of people at PSA really were not fans of the signing, but while he certainly cost them at times in the field, the 19-homer season and playoff heroics made him more than worth it. Even though Drew's doubtful to produce at similar offensive levels to the Dark Lord, there's definitely still a chance he can be a pleasant surprise.
Jim
When our very own Joe Girardi was traded to the Yankees after the 1995 season to replace Mike Stanley who eventually signed with the Red Sox. I thought it was insane to let Stanley, a strong hitter, team leader and All-Star, find greener pastures elsewhere, especially Boston. The drop off in production between Stanley and Girardi seemed like it would doom the Yankees, but obviously everything turned out just fine. Girardi won three rings in pinstripes and Stanley was even traded back to the Yankees for a brief stint in 1997. I may have overreacted a bit.
Harlan
I wasn't a fan of the Johnny Damon signing. It's no fun to watch a guy enjoy his prime years on the Red Sox then come to the Yankees and struggle while getting paid more. But as it turned out, Johnny still had a lot left at 32, and he wound up being nearly as good in New York as he was in Boston.
Tanya
Is it okay to use a trade for this? I thought the Yankees were making a huge mistake when they traded Jesus Montero to Seattle for Michael Pineda. I'd been prospect-hugging Montero since he was 16 years old, and I loved every minute of watching his September debut with the big league club. Now Montero is severely overweight, definitely not a catcher, went into the stands to try to beat up a scout who was insulting him, and that Pineda guy looks pretty awesome coming back from labrum surgery. Couldn't really be happier with how that turned out right now.
Matt F.
The Ellsbury and Ibanez signings were ones that initially came to mind, but since those were mentioned, I'll throw in another. I was initially a little weary of the first CC Sabathia contract. Yes, it's gone downhill since the new contract was inked after the 2012 season, but the first couple years of his original deal couldn't have gone much better. I am by no means super knowledgeable about how baseball players are evaluated by teams, but six years ago, I was clueless. I knew the Yankees needed pitching and he was the best option out there on the market, but considering how much the Brewers pitched him down the stretch in 2008, I was super nervous. (Medical science is also something I have no clue about and had less of a clue about then.) I assumed with all those innings the previous year, his arm would like fall off or something. It did not and good things happened the next couple years.
Those are our answers and now it's your turn. When were you angry about a move the Yankees made only to be pleasantly surprised?
Is there a trade being worked on for the Brewers? The Brewer Nation blog has a rumor that something may be in the works.
When the timeless tickets came out, we wondered who would buy a $1000 ticket. In his report on the tickets, Darren Rovell of ESPN notes that the Brewers have sold 240 of the 1000 tickets.
The Face of MLB vote has begun, and Jonathan Lucroy is the candidate for the Brewers. Cait Covers the Bases has the details on how to vote for Lucroy.