Wei-Chung Wang had a great stint in the Arizona Fall League. As the Brewers head into 2015, where is the best place for him to start?

The Glendale Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League finished their season yesterday. With it, the Brewers prospects also finished their season and can settle in for an offseason routine now. One of those players is Wei-Chung Wang, who got some time in the Arizona Fall League after a season of light usage in the majors. His results so far, along with his unique situation, have made choosing a starting spot for him this spring an interesting decision.

Let's start by taking a look into his stats. Here's what he did between his minor-league rehab and the Arizona Fall League in 2014:

Small-sample size alert here (of course), but overall, the results are very encouraging. The biggest concern here is a dip in the strikeout rate in the Arizona Fall League, but that could be the result of experimenting with his pitches while there. His walk rate remained low and the ERA/FIP were still good (even accounting for a rough final game). Plus, the Brewers were encouraged by his performance in the Arizona Fall League (more on that later).

It's certain that Wei-Chung Wang will be in the minors to start the season. The question that remains is how to progress him within the time they have. When he is sent to the minors this spring, he will have three option years available to progress. He will only have these three years, as he has already exceeded the maximums for earning a fourth year.  This means that if the Brewers want to get a great return from Wang, optimal progression through the minor-league system will be needed. Taking him off the 40-man roster to save those options is not an option either, as that will expose him to waivers and potentially the Rule 5 draft again.

If the Brewers want to give him adequate time at each level to develop, the best starting place would be High-A Brevard County. This would potentially give him a year at High-A Brevard County, a year at Double-A Huntsville/Biloxi, and a year at Triple-A Colorado Springs. It would be the most stable way to send him through the Brewers system, and has been how the Brewers tend to handle their minor-league pitchers. For example, here is Jimmy Nelson's progress through the minors:

2010: Rookie-level Helena (Full Season)
2011: Class-A Wisconsin (Full Season)
2012: High-A Brevard County (April - June) & Double-A Huntsville (June - August)
2013: Double-A Huntsville (April - June) & Triple-A Nashville (June - August)
2014: Triple-A Nashville (April - July)

Obviously, Nelson also had a few appearances with the Brewers in 2013, and then joined the Brewers full time in July 2014. The pattern shows a stable progression through the minors, with the only jump being a quick stay at Brevard County.

There is a question of experience here as well, though. Before 2014, he had only logged in 47 1/3 innings of professional baseball in the Pirates system. This season, between all of the levels he pitched at, it was only an additional 67 1/3 innings (with some additional simulated game innings). If there is a concern with that experience, Class-A Wisconsin would be a good starting point. However, that would also mean a quicker progression through the different levels of the system, which is not ideal.

The Brewers could also consider a bigger move and put him at Double-A Huntsville/Biloxi if he's ready. This would be a big jump, but with the way he performed in the Arizona Fall League, it may be one he would be ready for. Originally, I thought this was an unlikely option, but a strong fall has made it a possibility. From Tom Haudricourt:

Gord Ash also told me that LHP Wei-Chung Wang made so much progress in Arizona Fall League that might open in Double-A next season.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) November 14, 2014

The Brewers had a high view on him when they took him in the Rule 5 draft, and that continued through the season as Wang sat on the 25-man roster, even as the Brewers needed the roster space. Following his performance in his rehab appearances and his Arizona Fall League season, that view is still high and could mean a higher placement to start 2015. If he can handle it, it could mean he's helping the Brewers in the majors by 2017.

What do you think? Based on what you have seen of Wei-Chung Wang so far, where would the best starting place be for him in 2015? Would you take a reserved view and start him lower in the system, or make a bolder move and place him higher?

Today's lessons include a minor-league trade, the future of Wei-Chung Wang, and the risks of mega-deals.

Cram Session

• On Friday, the Brewers completed their trade with the Braves, receiving Kyle Wren for Zach Quintana.
• After a very encouraging stint in the Arizona Fall League, Wei-Chung Wang is ready for the Brewers minor-league system this fall. The only question that remains is which minor-league team he should be placed on.
• Our MVBrewers series continued with Fred's profile of the final honorable mention, Martin Maldonado. The Lesser Brewers profiles start up this afternoon.
• With Giancarlo Stanton set to sign a massive deal, Noah takes a minute to look at the Ryan Braun deal and the risks associated with these mega-deals.
• Is the Brewers roster set for Spring Training? Phil Rogers of MLB.com has some quotes from Doug Melvin, who believes this roster is ready to start spring training tomorrow.
• Baseball Prospectus released it's list of the top 10 Brewers prospects this morning, led by shortstop Orlando Arcia.
• The Brewer Nation blog has a final update on the Brewers that pitched in the Arizona Fall League.
• On his MVP ballot, Tom Haudricourt gave Jonathan Lucroy a fifth place vote, behind Adrian Gonzalez. Justin Schultz of The First Out at Third would like Haudricourt to explain his MVP ballot.

NL Central Update

• Richard Justice of MLB.com says that even if the Cardinals make no changes this offseason, they will still be the favorites to win the division when the season starts.
• A.J. Burnett is making his return to the Pirates, signing a one year, $8.5 million deal with the team. The interesting part of this: He could have made $12.75 million had he stayed with the Phillies.
• Over the weekend, the Cubs acquired infielder Tommy La Stella from the Braves for a minor-league pitcher and three international signing bonus slots.
• Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors has profiles of NL Central non-tender candidates Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, and Travis Wood.
• It's looking more and more likely that the Cubs will acquire Russell Martin. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish notes that the Cubs are the clear frontrunner, and that Martin is expected to get a four year, $64 million contract.
• Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors has some assorted news updates on the division, including more on the Burnett deal, Cubs looking at Jason Hammel, and the possibility the Reds trade Johnny Cueto. He also notes that the Reds have released Carlos Marmol.

Around Baseball

• This story will make you want to bring your own food to a game in the future. Mike Oz of Big League Stew notes that the Royals used expired food during the final games of the World Series.
• Jim Callis of MLB.com goes through the Arizona Fall League and highlights the best performance and best prospect for each team.
• In Game 3 of the Japan All-Star Series, Samurai Japan continued their dominance of the MLB All-Stars by combining for a no-hitter in a 4-0 win.
• The MLB All-Stars finally got on track in Game 4. Led by Justin Morneau's three-run home run and RBI double, the MLB All-Stars got their first win over Samurai Japan, a 6-1 victory. Today is a travel day before the five-game series wraps up on Tuesday.

Only 33 years old next season, K-Rod should still have a few good years left in him.

The Tigers signed Joel Hanrahan to a minor league contract last week, but Dave Dombrowski's comments suggest that he is still not comfortable with the shape of the club's bullpen. With question marks surrounding nearly every reliever in the system, a reliable arm would be a nice luxury to have. Those don't come around often when you're talking about relief pitchers, but veteran Francisco Rodriguez might be as close as we can get.

Should the Tigers look to add K-Rod to the mix?

*2015 Steamer projection

Who is he?

While it seems like Rodriguez is an ageless wonder at this point, he was only 32 years old in 2014. He made 69 appearances for the Milwaukee Brewers, racking up 44 saves in 49 chances. While his ERA and FIP were both higher than in 2013, K-Rod posted his lowest WHIP since 2003. That 0.99 WHIP was in his rookie season, just after Rodriguez had burst onto the scene with the Angels.

K-Rod became K-Rod during the 2002 postseason, when he allowed a 1.93 ERA while striking out 28 batters in 18 2/3 innings. A 1998 amateur free agent signing out of Venezuela, Rodriguez would go on to have a prolific career with the Angels. He racked up 208 saves in 241 chances while holding opponents to a 2.35 ERA and 2.84 FIP across seven seasons. He signed with the New York Mets after setting the single-season save record in 2008, then was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2011. Rodriguez has re-signed with the Brewers in three consecutive offseasons, pausing only for a 22 inning stint with the Baltimore Orioles in 2013 after a midseason trade.

Why should we care?

He has lost a bit of juice off his fastball over the years, but Rodriguez still racks up his fair share of strikeouts. He has struck out over a batter per inning in every season of his career, and still fanned opposing hitters at a 27.2 percent clip in 2014. Righties? Lefties? Doesn't matter. He set them both down on strikes over 27 percent of the time in 2014, and has fanned lefties at a 28 percent rate throughout his career.

If anything, the toned-down velocity has forced Rodriguez to improve his command. His walk rate dipped to a career low 6.7 percent in 2014 after he had set another personal best the year prior. He has only walked 8.4 percent of the batters he has faced since 2010, well below his career rate of 10.1 percent. He only issued five walks to left-handed batters in 2014, resulting in a stellar 7.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties. His 4.06 strikeout-to-walk ratio against all hitters was the best of his career.

No matter how wild he has been, Rodriguez has always been a difficult pitcher for opposing hitters to square up. He has allowed a career batting average of just .203, with 624 hits allowed in 835 1/3 career innings. He has generally been stingy about giving up home runs as well, though he allowed a career-high 14 dingers in 2014. His ridiculous 23.3 home run per fly ball rate is not sustainable, meaning his 2.91 xFIP was more representative of his 2014 performance than his 4.50 FIP.

Why should we stay away?

Despite the solid strikeout numbers, declining fastball velocity is a concern. Just look at Joe Nathan. Rodriguez is still several years away from his 40s, but put a lot of strain on his arm throughout his career by throwing so many breaking balls in his early years. He isn't using the pitch as often as Al Alburquerque, for example, but at 30 percent or more, the pitches start to add up. Pitchers can be a ticking time bomb of sorts, and the soon-to-be 33 year old could go off any season now.

There is also the money. Last offseason, the Brewers were able to take advantage of the market by signing Rodriguez to a cheap one-year deal. This year, Rodriguez may cost more than twice his $3.25 million contract from 2014. MLB Trade Rumors projects a two year, $14 million contract for K-Rod, likely to a team in need of a closer or solid setup man. One could argue that the Tigers squarely fall into this mold, but the club seems poised to save money on the bullpen and sign another cheap arm or two.

Will he end up in Detroit?

There have not been many rumors around any of the big relievers on the free agent market, so it's tough to gauge whether the Tigers will eventually splurge on a top-end talent. They are reportedly out on David Robertson -- who has a draft pick tied to his name after declining his qualifying offer -- but this does not mean they won't spend elsewhere. Rodriguez could add stability to the pen, but I would expect a team with an open closer situation to have the upper hand when negotiating with him.

Atlanta's new front office isn't wasting any time, dealing 2B Tommy La Stella to the Cubs and CF Kyle Wren to the Brewers for a pair of right handers.

President of baseball operations John Hart has been pulling the trigger early this offseason for the Braves, making a pair of one-for-one trades with the Cubs and Brewers. Heading to Chicago is rookie second baseman Tommy La Stella and re-acquired right handed pitcher Arodys Vizcaino and the teams also swapped international bonus slots. The Braves also wiped away any traces of the Wren name from the organization by sending 23 year old center fielder Kyle Wren to Milwaukee for right handed pitcher Zach Quintana.

Sunday afternoon the Cubs and Braves pulled off their deal which also involved the Cubs trading their second, third, and fourth slots for a total of $974,000 while Atlanta also included their fourth slot, valued at $142,000. Let's take a look at the guy still prospect eligible, RHP Arodys Vizcaino. He was originally signed by the New York Yankees in 2007, signing for a cool 800 grand. He was then sent to Atlanta in the 2009 offseason, then was dealt again at the 2012 deadline to the Cubs. Vizcaino missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons to Tommy John surgery and began his comeback in earnest in 2014.

Right handed pitcher Arodys Vizcaino - Photo by Tracy Proffitt

He worked his way back through the minors throwing 41 innings across three levels with a composite 3.51 ERA and a similar 3.58 FIP in addition to five more innings at the big league level where he allowed three runs in five innings with four strike outs and three walks. He struck out 42batters (23.7%) while walking 18 (10.2%) with 2.33 punch outs for every walk. He allowed 1.37 base runners per nine innings with the opposition hitting .247/.338/.385 against him. The 6'0 190 pound Dominican ran into issues in AAA Iowa, allowing 25 hits and 11 runs in just 18.1 innings with 11 walks and 16 strike outs. More advanced metrics like BABIP showed he was a bit unlucky at .321, but his bullpen mates stranded inherited runners 76.5% of the time.  Vizcaino was also racked up ground balls nearly 44% of the time.

Second baseman Tommy La Stella - Photo by Ted Jones

Tommy La Stella moved into the Braves starting line up in late May after the front office officially put the Dan Uggla experiment to rest. The soon to be 26 year old spent 47 games at AAA Gwinnett to start the year, hitting .293/.384/.359 with 25 walks (12.6%) to 14 strike outs (7.1%). He homered once with six doubles and a triple, driving in 23 with 18 runs scored and a 112 wRC+. With Atlanta the 2011 8th round pick out of Coastal Carolina hit .251/.328/.317 with an 84 wRC+, 83 OPS+, and -0.1 fWAR. He drew 36 walks (10%) to 40 strike outs (11.1%), hitting 16 doubles, a triple and a home run, crossing the plate 22 times with 31 RBI. A .283 BABIP is a hair below league average which should be sustainable but his defense was a little further below that line. FanGraphs pegged him for -2.1 Fld rating with a -4 DRS (defensive runs saved) and a -4 UZR/150.

The 5'11 185 pound left handed hitting second baseman is known for his keen eye at the plate and ability to make contact to all fields. He doesn't show much power and will be lucky to hit five in a season with below average speed and fielding ability. The same goes for his throwing arm, limiting him to second base duty without any chance of putting in time on the left side of the diamond. That being said, La Stella's value is tied pretty tightly to his ability in the batter's box. If he can bring his slash line anywhere near his .322/.407/.474 minor league career line through nearly 1,200 plate appearances he can be a productive player at the keystone.

Right handed pitcher Zach Quintana - Photo by Brad Krause

Back on Friday the Brewers and Braves hooked up on a smaller trade with Milwaukee sending right handed hurler Zach Quintana to Atlanta for center fielder Kyle Wren, son of former Atlanta GM Frank Wren. Milwaukee took Quintana in the third round of the 2012 draft, singing him to a $325,000 bonus out of Arbor View High School in Las Vegas. He spent his first two years in very friendly hitting conditions and posted a 5.82 ERA in his debut in the Arizona League and 6.95 ERA in 2013 in the Pioneer League. Last year was his first crack at full season ball, spending the entire year with Low A Wisconsin of the Midwest League, throwing 85.1 innings to the tune of a 5.70 ERA and 4.63 FIP. The soon to be 21 year old shuffled between the rotation and bullpen finished with 49 walks and 58 strike outs while surrendering 100 hits and four homers. With opposing hitters hitting .296/.389/.405 against him with a .339 BABIP and 63.3% strand rate, Quintana will benefit from some regression to the mean and heading to the Sally or even the Carolina league.

He's lost a tick on his fastball since turning pro once in the 90-96 mph range but now sitting 88-92. His offspeed stuff isn't anything worth writing home about either with a below average change up and curve. Back in high school he was worked pretty hard which may be a contributing factor to his stuff taking a few steps back the last two years. The command and control are not there and he has a high effort delivery which he has problems repeating.

Center fielder Kyle Wren - Photo by Rome Braves

Wren was first looked at as a nepotism pick with his old man drafting him in the eighth round of the 2013 draft out of Georgia Tech, signing for $150,500. Pushed to an age-appropriate league to start 2014, Wren went to High A Lynchburg and hit .296/.359/.357 through 76 games and 336 plate appearances with a 105 wRC+, 33 stolen bases, 10 doubles and four triples with no home runs. He worked 30 walks (8.9%) to 39 strike outs (11.6%) while scoring 46 runs and driving in 27. Bumped to AA Mississippi at the end of June, he finished the year out with a .283/.338/.376 line and 13 more stolen bases in 56 games spanning 227 PA's. The strike out to walk ratio wasn't as nice with 16 walks (7%) to 40 punch outs (17.6%), but he still posted a 102 wRC+ with 11 doubles and four triples.

Most outlets are looking at Wren as a potential fourth outfielder if everything breaks right. I am much higher on him though, thinking he can be a legitimate starting option for a team in center field. He has outstanding speed and great instincts in the field and on the bases making him a top of the order threat. The 5'10 175 pound lefty has a good eye at the plate and can draw a walk or use his speed to leg out infield hits. Power will never be a part of his game but he does have enough thump to drive the ball to the gaps. His arm is decent and he showed excellent range and should be an above average defender. Heading into his age 24 season, he has an outside shot at a cup of coffee in September, but with Carlos Gomez breaking out into an impact player, he may have to bide his time or possibly move to left field where his arm won't be as much of an issue.

All in all, I think Atlanta did well to get a late inning option in Vizcaino for a player they weren't completely sold on. It looks like Milwaukee benefited from the Braves trying to exorcise themselves of the Wren name, moving him for a very underwhelming return.

Segura endured a rough 2014 campaign in which he both underperformed and experienced personal tragedy

Last year's third-most-valuable Brewer finds himself among the "Lesser Brewers" in this year's ranking, but I'm not here to pile on Jean Segura.  He experienced one of the worst personal tragedies I can think of this season, losing his nine-month-old son in early July.  At the time, his son was in the Dominican Republic, about 2,000 miles away, and Segura took approximately one week off in the middle of the season to spend with family and make funeral arrangements.  So let's just acknowledge up front it was not a typical season for Segura.

That aside, Segura struggled mightily with the bat the first three months of the season, hitting just .244/.277/.333.  There were plenty of warning flags attached to the power display that had everyone raving about Segura last year, so it wasn't much of a surprise to see a precipitous decline in those numbers this year.  It was, however, a bit of a surprise to see Segura so undisciplined at the plate and making such weak contact for most of the season.  Things improved significantly at the end of the year, though; over the final two months, Segura slashed .288/.354/.341.

Segura took a step backward defensively in 2014, though he was still an adequate fielder at short.  Ultimate Zone Rating dings him slightly in every category (double play runs, range runs, and error runs), for a total UZR of -4 after last year's -1.  Segura isn't a spectacular fielder, but you probably won't hear too many fan complaints about him after the recent memories of Yuniesky Betancourt at the position.

One other notable aspect of Segura's game missing in 2014: the speed.  After converting on 77% of his stolen base opportunities last year (44/57), Segura nabbed only 20-of-29 in 2014.  It's not clear what was behind the hesitancy to steal, particularly since Segura was batting lower in the order for most of this year.

All said, Segura was still had a positive fWAR in 2014, although barely.  It was a far cry from the 3.2 fWAR he accumulated in his first full year with the Brewers.  After offering Segura an extension last offseason, the Brewers are best served taking a wait-and-see approach with their young shortstop in 2015.

Best Game

Segura had his best day by Win Probability Added on May 26, 2014.  Segura hit a go-ahead two-run double and chipped in a triple in what proved to be a losing effort:

Contract Status

Segura is arbitration eligible in 2016 and is headed for free agency in 2019.

Today's lessons include the start of the Lesser Brewers for MVBrewers, a big trade in the division, and more.

Cram Session

• We started our Lesser Brewers portion of MVBrewers yesterday with Nate's profile of Jean Segura. The next profile will be up this afternoon.
• Royals Review conducted an offseason simulation for all 30 teams, and the Brewers representative stopped by the FanPosts to explain what he did in the simulation and why.
• Adam McCalvy reports that the Brewers signed pitcher Jaye Chapman to a minor-league deal. He had last pitched in MLB for the Cubs before hip surgery took him out of baseball for a year.
• Over on RotoGraphs, Brad Johnson takes a look at Carlos Gomez and his massive swing.
• Nicholas Zettel of Disciples of Uecker profiled the DSL Brewers and some of their top prospects. He also looks at team pitching, defense, and ballpark factors for the NL Central.
• Over on Reviewing the Brew, Michael Trzinski has a season review of Kyle Lohse.

NL Central Update

• The Cardinals made the move of the day, trading Shelby Miller and a prospect to the Braves for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. This move definitely strengthens their team in the short-term.
• Entering yesterday, the Cubs were the assumed front-runners for Russell Martin. Then, the Blue Jays made their move, signing Russell Martin to a five year, $82.5 million deal. That takes the catcher out of the NL Central, and we're not sad to see him go.
• Carrie Muskat of MLB.com notes that after losing out on Russell Martin, the Cubs are turning their attention to Jon Lester in free agency.

Around Baseball

• Following the trade of Jason Heyward, David Schoenfield of ESPN SweetSpot thinks that the Braves could be one of the worst teams in 2015.
• Meanwhile, Mike Oz of Big League Stew found a tweet from Jordan Wren in regards to the Braves' most recent trade.
• Stop me when you've heard this before: After signing Giancarlo Stanton to a massive deal, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria says that he will surround Stanton with all-stars.
• Are older free agent pitchers more of a bargain? Steven Martano of Beyond the Box Score analyzes contracts that pitchers have received to see what history says.
• The official five-game Japan All-Star Series came to a close this morning with the MLB All-Stars beating Samurai Japan 3-1. The team has one more exhibition game on Thursday. Meanwhile, Orbit made the trip to Japan and made an appearance in Tokyo, interacting with people on the street.

The prospect staff at Fake Teams continues their fantasy prospect rankings and system reviews with an in-depth look at the Milwaukee Brewers.

Just like last year, the prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2015. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below. if we have already reviewed the team, a link to the post, along with the team's top prospect is noted.

System Schedule

Taylor is capable of providing value across all five categories, although none are likely to be at an above-average rate. He won't hit for a ton of power, but should provide 10-15 home runs a season, and a bunch of doubles as well. His batting average should be solid as well, as he makes a ton of contact and has shown the ability to draw walks on a consistent basis as well. He should be good for 10-15 stolen bases per year as a baseline, with 20 steal seasons a definite possibility. Defensively, he is more than capable of staying in center field long-term, although he also could play right with his arm strength.

Taylor is trending right now to be the potential long-term replacement for Carlos Gomez should the current centerfielder leave after the 2016 season as a free agent. He'll return to AA to start the 2015 campaign, and we could see him for a cup-of-coffee by the end of the 2016 season.

Harrison is considered a potential five category contributor, with the potential to provide double-digit production in both power and speed categories in the future. The steals totals jump off the page, and with it the potential for a large impact if his speed can hold up as he grows and matures physically. He could provide at least average production for batting average, which coupled with the counting stats could lead him to be a top 40 outfield option in the future.

Harrison has a long way to go from where he is now to playing for the Brewers in Milwaukee, and there is an open question about whether that will be in center field or if a move to a corner spot will be needed as he grows. He should get a full season assignment in 2015, and could give us a better idea if the performance he showed in the AZL matches up with his long-term potential.

Williams gets rave reviews about his potential as a starting pitcher, capable of providing good ratios to go along with a high strikeout total. He features a three-pitch mix with a fastball, changeup, and slider, all three of which have the potential to be at least average or better offerings. There are some questions right now about his ability to command all his pitches, but this seems like something that can be worked out with more innings thrown. The other interesting part regarding Williams is the fact that he still has a projectable frame, as he is 6'3" but just 165 lbs. The potential to add more muscle to his frame could lead to a stronger possibility that he will be able to provide 200+ innings on a regular basis when he reaches the majors.

There is risk with any player, especially a pitching prospect, that has not pitched a full season yet, but Williams remains one of the most interesting ones. He appears ready for that assignment to Low-A Wisconsin, and could rocket up prospect lists with a strong performance there as well.

	4. Kodi Medeiros (LHP)
Photo Credit: Rich Schultz - Getty Images

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
0	1	7.13	2.094	26
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
17.2	1.00	1.90	13.98%	27.96%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
18	R	R	Rk
Roster Status: Protect After 2018 Season
ETA to Majors: 2019

The range of outcomes for Medeiros is a lot wider than you'd normally expect from a player taken in the top half of the first round. He features a three pitch mix of a fastball, slider, and changeup, which all have the potential to be average or better offerings. His fastball and slider both have the potential to be strikeout offerings, although his command of all three pitches will continue to need work as he moves up toward the majors.

There are a lot of questions regarding his long-term role on the pitching staff, which seem to stem from both his current repertoire (third pitch, command) and continues onward with his arm slot. He throws from an extremely low arm slot, and reports on him note that he can be inconsistent with his delivery and release point. The Brewers will likely need to continue to work on that, but it is not considered something that cannot be fixed.

Long term, Medeiros is looking at either a short-season assignment, or potentially a move to full-season Low-A in 2015 if the Brewers want to push the Hawaiian lefty. Another year will give us a better idea of his potential to stick in the rotation, and he could move way up these rankings in a year's time. He has the potential to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher if it all clicks for Medeiros.

Lara's calling card prior to signing was his potentially elite raw power, which could be capable of providing 25-30 home runs a season if it all comes together. Signed as a shortstop, Lara is not expected to stay at the position long-term, but rather move to third base. He is already 6'3", 205 lbs despite just turning 17 last month, and as such is considered essentially physically mature.

It's a long way from where Lara is to the bigs, but the potential for a high impact offensive contributor is there. He could be a very interesting option at third base down the line, but it's not even clear yet whether he will play stateside in 2015, let alone in a full-season league.

The hard part with Arcia is reconciling his fantasy value with his real-life value. The top prospect in the system on a number of lists, his value to fantasy owners is depressed based on his skill set. He's not expected to provide very much power in the future, mostly a token few home runs per year, if that. He should provide batting average, but it may not come with a ton of speed.

The key to remember with him is that if he only provides average value in those two categories, that he may only be a fringe starting option in more shallow leagues. He is a prospect that I would move up a couple spots if you're looking at deeper formats, as he is extremely likely to be a starting shortstop in the majors, and provide at least reasonable value in two to three categories as a MI option.

The Brewers had hoped that Coulter would develop into at least an average backstop defensively, as his bat would play well above-average if he could stick there. However, the team made the move to shift him to the outfield after the season, with right field likely to be his long-term home in the field. While that does put a little more pressure on his bat, it should still play well there.

He has above-average power potential, with 20 home runs a season a definite possibility. There are some questions about whether he can provide batting average to go with it, although his approach at the plate this year portrays the potential that he could provide value both in that category and in on-base percentage leagues as well. With the additional tasks of learning to play behind the dish removed, we could see him move quickly if he hits well and takes to the outfield. He gets rave reviews about his makeup and work ethic, which should only help him as he moves through the minors.

	8. Jake Gatewood (SS)
Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann - Getty Images

2014 FANTASY STATISTICS
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.206	19	3	32	7
2014 SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
222	0.249	0.279	5.86%	31.98%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE	Bats	Throws	2014 Levels
18	R	R	Rk
Roster Status: Protect After 2014 Season
ETA to Majors: 2019

A shortstop out of high school, Gatewood could stay at the position for a few years but long-term is expected to move to third base due to his size (6'5", 190 lbs currently). His calling card in the draft was raw power, which is considered above-average to potentially elite. However, there are a lot of questions about how well he will be able to translate that power in game based on his current contact issues (71 K in 222 PA).

Gatewood is an extremely raw prospect that has the potential to be an elite fantasy option if it all comes together, but right now the range of outcomes are so wide that it's hard to move him up too much more on this list.

Roache's future will be determined by his ability to make consistent contact and improve his pitch recognition. He has not posted a batting average about .246 in either season, and while he has shown solid walk rates around 8% each year, the strikeouts may be too much to overcome. He has potentially 30+ home run potential in terms of raw power, but is more likely to be limited to around 15-20+ if these contact issues cannot be resolved. He did finish the season with his best month of the year (.282/.357/.515, 6 HR) so we did get a glimpse of what could be possible with him if it does all click.

Roache could return to High-A for a second go-around, but more likely seems headed to AA as the team looks to move him towards the majors. He's worth keeping an eye on because of the power potential, but I wouldn't hold him in dynasty formats except for the deepest ones.

Kyle Wren (OF) - It's probably a reasonably good bet that if you're the son of the general manager and he loses his job, you could get traded. This is exactly what happened with outfielder Kyle Wren, whom the Brewers picked up in a prospect-for-prospect trade last week. While he may get some of his publicity for being Frank Wren's son, Kyle is still a decent prospect in his own right. Wren has a leadoff-type profile, capable of providing a solid batting average to go with excellent speed and good contact skills. He's not going to provide value at all in terms of power, but is an interesting name for deeper formats where a lot of players are rostered, as he should provide decent value in three categories if given a starting job.

Hunter Morris (1B) - Morris repeated AAA in 2014, which is a bit telling of his long-term potential given that they struggled to find production at his position in the majors. He'll be 26 for the upcoming season, and is a name only if you think Lind will struggle and want a flier in a deep NL-only league.

Taylor Jungmann (SP) - The top draft pick of the Brewers in the 2011 class, Jungmann has plugged away in the minors and spent most of the season at AAA Nashville. He will likely be called upon should the Brewers need a starting pitcher during the season, and seems likely to profile as a streaming option in shallow formats and a back-end option in deeper ones.

Taylor Williams (SP) - The potential that Williams, a starter currently, ends up in the bullpen, keeps him off this top 10 for me. He continues to work on a changeup that would strengthen his case for a long-term starting spot, but if that does not develop he could still provide value to his team as a reliever providing a solid amount of strikeouts.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects. 
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

David Spracale is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @dspracale

After a reinvention in 2014, Zach Duke is now a handsomely paid member of the White Sox bullpen. Will the Sox regret it or is he the new king of the LOOGYs?

One of the weird things about being a sports fan or a sports writer is that there are moments when it fills you with a sense of entirely unjustified pride. Just such a moment arrived for me on Tuesday when the White Sox signed left-handed reliever Zach Duke to a three year, $15 million deal. I don't know Zach Duke personally and I honestly probably wouldn't recognize him out of uniform, but I developed a little bit of a Zach Duke obsession this summer because Duke was doing this crazy thing where he was morphing into an entirely different pitcher before our very eyes.

Now you're probably wondering why Duke gets as many words as the Jason Heywardswap or the Russell Martindeal. This is a middle reliever signing with a club that's probably not quite a wild card contender in 2015. It's the kind of deal that gets attention because it's November but not the kind of deal that requires real analysis.

Except Zach Duke had my attention all summer because his strikeout rate erupted this season. He worked hard on his mechanics last winter, added a lower arm slot, and started firing off more breaking balls (sliders and curves) than he had ever thrown before. It was one of those big changes in performance that you could tie to a reasonably clear change in process. I didn't really expect the strikeout rate to stay that high, but I bought into the overall trajectory.

Zach Duke had reinvented himself! I actively sought out updates on Zach Duke appearances. It wasn't the Corey Kluber Society or anything, but I felt some degree of ownership.

Entering 2014, he had a career high strikeout rate of 17.9% that came in a tiny sample of innings in 2012. Last year, he had one month with a strikeout rate below 29%. Before we get ahead of ourselves, here is Duke before 2014 and during 2014:

It's obviously only one season's worth of innings from a reliever, but it's about 60 fantastic innings not heavily distorted by a platoon. He faced a roughly equal number of righties and lefties and had pretty similar results. I'm not going to sit here and argue that the thousand innings that came before should get thrown out or that he's a true talent relief ace based on one year of data, but he's demonstrated the ability to perform at a high level with no BABIP luck, HR/FB% magic, or really well targeted appearances against weak lefties. He legitimately pitched well for those 60 innings.

It doesn't mean he's going to do it again, though. It just means he's capable of it. Steamer sees a big drop in strikeout rate (to about 21%), but that's still nearly twice as high as it was in his entire career before 2014. In other words, Steamer is buying that he's much better. I'm suggesting that he's much better. No one is sure about the magnitude of that increase because this isn't exactly the most common career path.

A multi-year deal for a 31 year old lefty who was a washed up starter in the not too distant past seems kind of crazy on its face, but to provide $15 million of value over three years he only needs to get to something like 2-3 WAR. If you're a 0.7 WAR reliever every year you're set.

Granted, that's not exactly a sure thing for a guy who hadn't been worth more than 0.7 WAR since 2009 (when he was a starter). It's a big commitment that's banking on the new Duke. He doesn't have to match last season, but he has to be good for this to make any sense. We talk about how relievers are unpredictable quite often, so I thought a simple test would be in order.

This is a three year deal. Duke was an awesome pitcher this year. How well do awesome relievers perform over the next three years?

I grabbed data from 2011 and then 2012-2014 for all pitchers with 30 or more innings in relief in 2011. That gave me a sample of 200 relievers who I divided up into four "equal" groups based on FIP-. Here are the FIP- of the groups (weighted by batters faced) in 2011 and then in 2012-2014.

Two things about this chart seem important. The first is that there's an obvious survivor problem in Tier 4. The pitchers who are really terrible get far fewer chances in the next three years than the ones who are decent. Second, the top group takes the biggest step back, which seems like a win for our old friend regression toward the mean. But it's also worth noting that they were still a very good group, even if they weren't elite and performed worse.

If the Sox get three years of an 85 FIP- from Duke they are going to be over the moon. It's also a pretty clean distribution. Of the 49 pitchers in Tier 1, 23 were at 86 FIP- or better over the next three years and 24 were worse (two didn't pitch).

Could Duke turn into Kameron Loe (129 FIP- from 2012-2014)? Sure. But he could also wind up being Joaquin Benoit (81 FIP- from 2012-2014).

There are certainly complicating factors like age and track record and usage, but a quick test suggests that judging relievers on one year of data isn't totally pointless. The best relievers typically perform better over the next three years than the rest of the league, even if they don't maintain their dominance in quite the same way.

Zach Duke's going to be an interesting case. He seems like someone who should do well going forward and history suggests he won't become totally worthless. But 365 days ago, not one team would have even considered a deal like this. The Brewers got him for nothing, he turned into something, and now he's a very rich man.

We'll see if he can keep it up.

...

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Neil Weinberg is the Associate Managing Editor at Beyond The Box Score, the Site Educator at FanGraphs, and writes enthusiastically at New English D.

Kintzler fell off a bit last season -- serving up home runs all over the place -- but he continues to be effective enough to remain a fixture in middle relief for the Brewers.

I like Brandon Kintzler. I like his tenacity on the mound. I like his story about getting married in Vegas -- in the chapel where Britney Spears was married. I like how he can get ground balls. I like how he has blossomed from relative obscurity to become something of a fixture in the Brewers' bullpen.

However, I don't like how a step backward in 2014 has relegated him to the label "lesser." It is deserved. Kintzler, for whatever reason, simply stopped missing bats this past year. Kintzler earned a chance at a greater role in Ron Roenicke's bullpen with an impressive 2013 campaign, but a spike in HR rate and increased hittability forced Kintzler into a middle relief role for much of the season, with few high-leverage innings to speak of.

Kintzler's K/9 plummeted to a career low and miniscule 4.78 - these lost strikeouts were unfortunately displaced by walks (+ .6 BB/9) and home runs (+1 HR/9 --> !!!). You can't necessarily blame a decline in "stuff" -- Kintzler's pitch/fx data shows virtually identical movement and velocity in 2013 and 2014.

But it isn't all grim - Kintzler still induces groundballs at a high rate (~57%) and actually left a very high percentage of runners on base in 2014 (83%, up from 71% in 2013). In comparison to 2013, he essentially traded a bunch of line drives for fly balls, which resulted in a handful of extra HRs.

We've seen the HR bug bite some of our favorite Brewers in recent years. By some, I mean Marco Estrada. Just you, Marco. I can detect an impatience within the fanbase. I guess I can't blame them. We can only hope the tide turns and Kintzler shakes it off before next season.

Best Game

Kintzler's best game by WPA was a game in which he helped bridge the gap to K-Rod in an extra-inning affair against the Mets. However, he walked 4 (3 unintentionally) in 2 innings of work, which is just too inefficient to consider the "best" of anything.

Perhaps Kintzler's best outing occurred at Fenway Park way back in April, when the Brewers swept the then-not-known-to-be-bad Red Sox in a wonderful 3-day weekend series. Kintzler pitched an inning and two thirds in a tie game, finishing the 7th and working through the 8th, earning a hard-earned strikeout of Xander Bogearts and an inning-ending double play by Jonny Gomes. The Brewers would go on to win the game in 11 innings. Logan Schafer played hero. It was cool.

Plus, Boston's perfect CF camera shows off Kintzler's darting sinking fastball, a personal favorite of mine when it's working:

Contract Status

Kintzler is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2015, where he will likely get a rather significant raise relative to his $507K paycheck in 2014. Expect him to threaten the seven figure threshold in 2015 after a couple dependable seasons in the middle of the Brewers' bullpen.

Today's lessons include Rule 5 draft protection, another MVBrewers profile, and more.

Cram Session

• The deadline to protect eligible players from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40-man roster is this afternoon. Yesterday, Derek looked at potential players that the Brewers could protect.
• Over on MLB.com, Adam McCalvy also looks at some possible players that the Brewers could protect from the Rule 5 draft.
• After the Athletics signed Billy Butler to a three-year, $30 million deal, Noah has a reminder that the Brewers found some good value in the Adam Lind trade.
• The Brewers signed John Ely to a minor-league deal yesterday. No word if it will include an invitation to Spring Training or not.
• Our MVBrewers series continued with Fred's profile of Brandon Kintzler. The next Lesser Brewer profile will be up this afternoon.

NL Central Update

• Will the NL Central be the best division in baseball next season? Mike Bauman of MLB.com takes a look at a division that is expected to be solid from top to bottom.

Around Baseball

• Jon Heyman of CBS Sports notes that owners are expected to vote on a five-year contract for future commissioner Rob Manfred today.
• Early indications following the Giancarlo Stanton signing show that the Marlins instead to compete. Justin Millar of MLB Daily Dish notes that the Marlins have made Adam LaRoche a two-year, $20 million offer.
• Former Brewer Juan Francisco had been placed on waivers by the Blue Jays, and was claimed by the Red Sox yesterday.
• Over on FanGraphs, there's a debate on how good the Billy Butler deal is. Eno Sarris thinks that the deal may not be crazy, but Dave Cameron thinks that the deal is crazy.
• For MLB players, it only takes one good year to get a big contract. Neil Weinberg of Beyond the Box Score looks at how Zach Duke turned one good year with the Brewers into a $15 million deal.
• Frank Jackson of The Hardball Times takes a look at the history of the bobblehead, and makes some suggestions for future bobbleheads that MLB teams could make.
• The MLB All-Stars finished their Japan trip this morning with a 6-4 exhibition loss in Okinawa. Rob Wooten pitched a inning in the loss, allowing just one hit.

Can you name the guys who out earn or out earned Zach Duke?

Earlier this week we learned that the White Sox have signed 2014 Brewers reliever Zach Duke to a three-year, $15 million contract. That's a fair amount of money to commit to a reliever, much less one who's been a full-time member of an MLB bullpen for just one full season.

Duke's contract is significant, but falls just short of qualifying for this quiz: There have been 47 contracts with an average annual value of $6 million or more given to relief pitchers in MLB history. How many of the pitchers can you name in ten minutes?

If the quiz isn't displaying correctly for you here or you'd simply prefer to take it over there, follow this link to play the quiz at Sporcle.com.

Please post your score in the comments below, but also remember that comments on this post may contain spoilers. If you get all 47 answers correct, post your time along with your score in the comments.

If you've finished this quiz and would like another challenge, then you may also enjoy:

• JP's quiz asking you to name the 2014 Brewers with his clues
• Name the Brewers with more career hits than Aramis Ramirez.
• Name 2013's Most Valuable Brewers.

You can also check out the Thinker archives from last winter.

Good luck, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Is K-Rod a potential replacement for D-Rob?

2014 Statistics: 68 IP, 69 G, 3.04 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 44 SV, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.5 fWAR

2015 Age: 33

Position: Right-handed relief pitcher

Apparently the New York Yankees have made re-signing David Robertsona top priority, though at this point in the offseason that's hardly makes it certain that we will see D-Rob sign with the New York Yankees. In the event the Yankees fail to bring back their closer, Dellin Betances might appear to be a ready-made replacement, though if the front office chooses to favour a veteran over promoting internally it would hardly be the first time. There is a lot to be said about keeping Betances in his current role as 'relief ace' of course, his ability to generate strikeouts and pitch multiple innings in a game arguably makes him more valuable if he isn't reserved for the ninth inning.

Should the Yankees pursue a 'proven closer' in the open market, there are few options more 'proven' than Francisco Rodriguez. With 348 career saves he is behind only Joe Nathan among active players, and he holds the single-season record with 62 saves. Should the Yankees fail to sign D-Rob, K-Rod might hold appeal especially as he does not have a draft pick attached, and he might well be persuaded to settle for a one or two year contract with an annual value of $5 to $7 million, likely making him significantly cheaper than Robertson and perhaps Andrew Miller.

Rodriguez made his major league debut in 2002 with the Los Angeles Angels, where as a setup man he was a key part of their magical postseason run in 2002. Promoted to closer before the 2005 season after the departure of Troy Percival, K-Rod reached 208 saves after his fourth full-season as closer, and as an example of the market value of the save statistic, the Mets signed him to a three year 37 million dollar contract. His time in New York was turbulent, involving a much publicised spat with his pitching coach followed by an even more well publicised arrest for assaulting his girlfriends father. Ultimately he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers as a setup man, where he has been ever since apart from the second half of 2013 when he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles. Re-signed by the Brewers to close for 2014, K-Rod pitched his way through a typically solid season.

Despite a declining fastball, Rodriguez continues to post solid strikeout numbers, pitch his way to a solid ERA - though his 2014 FIP is a little concerning - and close out games. At this point in his career he isn't at the top of the relief pitcher market or a rival for Robertson so expect him to wait out D-Rob and Miller's decisions before receiving offers from the teams that miss out.

Personally, should the Yankees fail to bring back Robertson I'd rather they spend the money elsewhere patching the many holes on this team. Relief pitching is the one roster area where we can be reasonably confident in the high-level minor league depth available to complement the existing strength. However, I wouldn't be too upset if they chose to sign K-Rod to a contract of no more than 2 years and $14 million. That type of deal wouldn't make him a barrier to promoting elite relief talent like Lindgren, or ultimately stop the Yankees giving ninth inning duties to Betances, but it would allow them not to rush the process of turning over the closer role to Dellin after just one successful major league season.

Today's lessons include 40-man roster additions, bullpen contracts, and how Mark Loretta is responsible for the acquisition of Jean Segura.

Cram Session

• The deadline to add players to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 protection was yesterday. Initially, the Brewers decided to only add three players to their 40-man roster, adding Taylor Jungmann, Michael Strong, and Yadiel Rivera. However, that evening they also decided to add David Goforth to the 40-man roster as well.
• Can you name the relievers that have received the biggest contracts as relievers? Kyle has a quiz for you testing your knowledge of reliever contracts.
• Our MVBrewers series continued with Derek's profile of Elian Herrera. The next profile will be out this afternoon.
• Andrew Gruman of FOX Sports has a profile of Adam Lind, who is looking forward to spring training and getting to work with the Brewers.
• Over on Disciples of Uecker, Nicholas Zettel ranks the National League starting pitchers by dependability.
• Cait Covers the Bases notes that the Brewers Community Foundation and "Koos for Kids" have teamed up this year to provide over 350 coats to local students in need.

NL Central Update

• David Schoenfield of ESPN SweetSpot has a series of random thoughts on the NL Central.
• The Pirates also made a series of additions to protect players from the Rule 5 draft, adding five players to their 40-man roster. In addition to their 40-man roster additions, the Pirates also designated 1B Ike Davis and C Ramon Cabrera for assignment.
• Greg Johns of MLB.com notes that the Cardinals made a trade with the Mariners, swapping minor league players Sam Gaviglio and Ty Kelly. The Cardinals then also added Kelly to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Around Baseball

• MLB Trade Rumors has a rundown of all the players added to 40-man rosters yesterday for Rule 5 draft protection.
• In a unanimous vote yesterday, the MLB owners gave future commissioner Rob Manfred a five-year contract, starting on January 25.
• Richard Justice of MLB.com looks at how Bud Selig has kept competitive balance in MLB, culminating in the Royals making the World Series this year..
• After yesterday's game, the MLB All-Stars are headed home with their series done. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has a wrap-up of the trip, both on and off the field.
• Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com rank their top 25 prospects from the Arizona Fall League. (Spoiler alert: No Brewers prospects are on the list.)
• Here's something that you don't see many MLB GMs doing. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com has a story on Yankees GM Brian Cashman, who slept on the streets of Manhattan last night to help support a program to help the homeless.
• How is Mark Loretta responsible for the Brewers acquiring Jean Segura? Ben Lindbergh of Grantland answers this question and looks at some of the oldest active transaction trees in MLB.

After reviewing three-season averages of available defensive metrics, for fun, let's look at a visual comparison of some National League Central outfield defenses as well.

With the acquisition of Jason Heyward, arguably the best defensive right fielder in baseball, the outfield defense of the St. Louis Cardinals is vastly improved for the 2015 season. Oscar Taveras (may he rest in peace) was not going to wow anyone with his glove out there, and though Randal Grichuk, a long-time center fielder, flashed the leather a handful of times last season, he is pretty clearly not ready for an everyday spot in a big-league lineup. Statistically, how does it compare to some other teams in the National League Central? How about visually?

Single-season defense metrics are volatile and subsequently tough to use when analyzing players. Thus, for comparison purposes, I used the last three seasons of defensive data for the included players and collected a whole-number average for each statistic. UZR and DRS were found on Fangraphs, and TZ was found on Baseball-Reference. Here are the respective primers for the defensive metrics included below: UZR, DRS, and TZ.

As you will see, I have italicized Khris Davis (LF), Ryan Braun (RF), and Gregory Polanco (RF) in the tables as we do not yet have three seasons worth of data at their current positions. Davis had a limited amount of experience in left field in 2013 (265.0), so I reworked his numbers a little bit to include that. For Braun, I went ahead and included his left field metrics from 2012 and 2013 since LF (-7.5 runs) has the same positional adjustment as RF (-7.5 runs). Polanco has what I will consider one season at his current position (RF), so I left his data alone. Given that he is an ex-CFer, one would reasonably expect his numbers to improve over the course of a full season.

versus

versus

For those wondering why the NL Central suddenly has only three teams, don't worry, there are still five teams. I did not include the Reds or the Cubs in this post, but I will be more than happy to do so in the future. For the Reds, we do not know who their left fielder will be next season as they chose to move on from Ryan Ludwick. For the Cubs, we do not know what their outfield arrangement will be just yet either. Plus, given the youth of their roster, viable three-season defensive data is virtually nonexistent.

So what can be gathered from the information included in the tables above? Well, the best outfield alignment, in terms of defense at least, would be Marte in left, Bourjos in center, and Heyward in right. To be frank, not many balls would land in the outfield grass with that combination at the ready. Thankfully for the Cardinals, they will likely have two of those three players on their 25-man roster going into 2015 (barring any trade "rumor" becoming true). Yet, as we know, Mozeliak stated that Jay will be the team's primary center fielder going into 2015. Whether that is Mospeak or Cardinal truth, no one can know for sure just yet.

As shown by the numbers and reinforced by the visuals below, neither center fielder will need much help going to their left as Heyward has pretty much everything (this may be a slight exaggeration)covered. However, going to their right will be extremely important as Holliday, who is about to turn 35 years old, is the worst defensive outfielder included in this post. Though I will admit that the graphs are extremely crowded, you can still see that there is a pretty defined white backwards "S" between Holliday and Jay in the first graph. In the second graph, with Bourjos in for Jay, that white spot is no longer present as Bourjos's range extends to cover some of Holliday's ground. The graphs are mainly included as eye candy and as a supplement to the data included in the tables, but either way, I look forward to discussing them in the comments.

First, I must credit Wes Keene and Ed Chapman for sending me their renditions of the first graph, and then Ed Chapman for graciously taking the time to make the final three graphs as well. I spent roughly an hour trying to make them on my own and after failing numerous times, I called in the experts. In case you are unfamiliar with these graphs, they are layered versions of the Fielding Location Spray Charts on Fangraphs.

Cardinals with Jon Jay in center

Cardinals with Peter Bourjos in center

Brewers

Pirates

The 1995-2002 Brewer may not deserve a plaque in Cooperstown, but he might be more worthy than these guys.

One of today's top stories around baseball comes from Cooperstown, where the Baseball Writers Association of America has released the list of players who will be eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame next season. 34 players will appear on ballots this season, including 17 holdovers from previous seasons and 17 newcomers. One of the newcomers is Gary Sheffield, and he's the only player among 34 nominees who ever played in a Brewers uniform.

Several months ago Craig Goldstein of SBNation.com posted a list of 27 players that could have appeared on this ballot for the first time: Sheffield was on it, but so were one-time Milwaukee players Mark Loretta, David Weathers, Braden Looper, Julian Tavarez and Ron Villone. No one of that latter group of five was included for consideration.

I think most of us will agree that none of the five snubs listed above likely merited serious consideration for enshrinement. I'd like to highlight for a moment, though, the case of Mark Loretta. Loretta was a very good Brewer from 1997-99 before struggling to stay on the field under poor management from 2000-02 and eventually being traded to the Astros.

The best years of Loretta's career might actually have come in his 30's. He was an All Star and a Silver Slugger Award winner at second base for the Padres in 2004, hitting .335/.391/.495 and collecting a career-high 208 hits. He was an All Star again two years later for the Red Sox in 2006. All told he appeared in 1726 games over 15 MLB seasons and hit .295/.360/.395 while playing primarily as a middle infielder. FanGraphs lists him as an average to slightly above average defender at second base and below average at third base and shortstop. Baseball Reference lists his career value at 19.3 wins above replacement, and FanGraphs has him at 18.9.

Those numbers aren't good enough to merit inclusion in Cooperstown, of course, but that's not my point. My point was that Mark Loretta was an underrated player, and he's more deserving of consideration than several players who actually made the ballot.

Below please find a list of four players who are under consideration for enshrinement this season:

Rich Aurilia

Aurilia's career looks a lot like Loretta's with the addition of one monster year: He was an All Star and Silver Slugger Award winner in 2001 when he hit 37 home runs (the same season Giants teammate Barry Bonds hit 73). That was easily the best campaign of Aurilia's career, however: He only broke 20 home runs three other times and had a career on-base percentage of .328.

Aurilia played 15 MLB seasons, like Loretta, but had 150 fewer hits, an OPS just eight points higher (.762 to .754) and was limited to less-valuable defensive positions for the stretch run of his career. B-Ref has him at 18.1 career WAR, which would be behind Loretta. FanGraphs has him much higher at 26.1. In both cases, the lion's share of that value came in one season.

Aaron Boone

Behold the power of one shining postseason moment: Boone played just 12 big league seasons and averaged less than 100 appearances per year. He was a one-time All Star, as a Red in 2003, drove in more than 72 runs just twice and had a .751 career OPS, three points below Loretta, despite spending his entire career as a corner infielder.

Boone will always be remembered, however, for a single home run in the 2003 ALCS as a member of the Yankees. That single blast was enough to help people forget that Boone hit .170/.196/.302 in 58 plate appearances that October in the only postseason appearance of his career.

B-Ref estimates that Boone was worth 13.5 WAR over his 12 MLB seasons, and FanGraphs is much less generous at 9.8.

Tony Clark

Clark played 15 MLB seasons as a member of six teams, including seven years in Detroit, but his best years were already over at age 27. He had a nice three-year run from 1997-99 where he hit 97 home runs over three years, but it's important to put those seasons in context: That was the 22nd-highest total in all of baseball over that span, one less than what Jeromy Burnitz had and almost 100 less than the 193 that came off the bat of Mark McGwire.

1999 was also the last time Clark appeared in more than 130 games. He made just one All Star team, never won a major award and might actually have been a below-average hitter for a first baseman of his era, posting a career .262/.339/.485 batting line. B-Ref credits him with just 12.5 WAR for his career, and FanGraphs agrees.

Darin Erstad

Erstad was a two-time All Star, three-time Gold Glove Award winner and a Silver Slugger over 14 seasons, most of which were spent with the Angels. He was a very good postseason hitter (.339/.368/.492 in 127 plate appearances) and a big contributor in October to Anaheim's 2002 World Series win, but that performance might have overshadowed a regular season career that wasn't as special.

Erstad had one spectacular season in 2000, leading all of baseball with 240 hits and setting a career high with 25 home runs, but that season is an outlier among his other performances. From 2001-2009 he was just a .267/.319/.367 hitter. Many fans likely remember him for his defensive efforts, but it's worth noting that he actually played more career games at first base (627) than in center field (540).

Both B-Ref and FanGraphs love Erstad, listing him at 32.3 and 28.3 career wins above replacement, respectively, largely due to his defensive work during his peak seasons. It's possible he was only nominated for the Hall, however, so writers could once again remind us that he was the punter during his college days at Nebraska.

Happy Thanksgiving!

If you are like me, you woke up this morning with a slight headache after staying up a little too late drinking soda, eating cheesecake, and playing pinochle. I don't need to bog you down with a bunch of words, right? Cool. Let's get straight to the links.

But first, from our friend, Clank:

HAPPY CLANKSGIVING

— clank (@fortclank) November 27, 2014

And now, from the Cardinals:

Happy Thanksgiving!! #GoFrogs

— Matt Carpenter (@MattCarp13) November 27, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving

— Jon Jay 2J (@jonjayU) November 28, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I know I have a lot to be thankful for. My God, my family, friends, & @Cardinals nation! pic.twitter.com/kCLc4G5bqb

— Adam Wainwright (@UncleCharlie50) November 27, 2014

Be Thankful Be Grateful Hold em Close Spread LOVE pic.twitter.com/Wje3BYccsa

— jheytwotwo (@JasonHeyward) November 27, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving! Especially to all the new people in STL. And to everyone in Seattle.. Go 49ers!

— Ty Kelly (@tykelly11) November 27, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving! God bless everyone on this day ussssss a comer pavo

— Carlos Martinez (@Tsunamy27) November 27, 2014

what else is going on in baseball...

• Mo'ne Davis has been nominated for Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year. - Sports Illustrated
• Phillip Hughes, an Australian cricket player, has died after being struck in the head by a ball in a what is described as a freak accident. - New York Times
• The Marlins might be interested in Allen Craig. - Over the Monster
• Yasmany Thomas is headed to the Diamondbacks. - Cut4

what the cardinals are up to...

• Irony: 
  

  Saw @tykelly11's tweet baseball heroes were M-Carp, Scutaro. Interesting #Cardinals tried to sign latter before turning 2B over to former.

  — Derrick Goold (@dgoold) November 26, 2014

• Wainwright made his 1st MLB start in his age-25 season. Martinez & Gonzales are both entering their age-23 seasons. #STLCards

  — Ben (@b_g_h) November 27, 2014

KNOW THINE ENEMY...

the nl central

• This is a Q & A with the Brewers' director of player development, Reid Nichols. - Fangraphs

viva el stuff...

• A little information on Ty Kelly from Ben Cerutti. - Viva el Birdos
• WillGio projects Jason Heyward's 2015 production. - Viva el Birdos
• A Thanksgiving reminder from the red baron. - Viva el Birdos
• Our friend, vexedtechie, is going by another name this time of year:
  

  HAPPY HOLIDAYS, TWITTER.

  — Jason Sleighward (@vexedtechie) November 28, 2014

• And has the final Sabermattrics count: 
  

  So, final 2014 Sabermattrics count... Runs Matted In: 237 Matts Matted In: 122 Matts Batted In: 240

  — Jason Sleighward (@vexedtechie) November 28, 2014

other things...

• Important news:
  

  A KNIGHT'S TALE COMING TO NETFLIX, Y'ALL

  — Rui Xu (@rui_xu) November 26, 2014

• After losing to Ottawa in a shootout 3-2 on Tuesday and losing their starting goalie, the Blues look to turn things around today against the Edmonton Oilers at 7:00pm. - St. Louis Game Time
• The Rams are set to take on the Raiders this Sunday at 12:00pm. They look to bounce back after losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Chargers last Sunday. - Turf Show Times

In TheTwitch's debut article, he outlines the first of ten potential trades the D-backs can make/

Hello, AZ Snakepitters! I'm Twitch, a lifelong Diamondbacks fan, and this is my debut article.

I'm disappointed with the direction of our team's going. Baffling decisions, squandered funds, and an indecisive front office over the last several years have resulted in a legendarily horrific season. Our small market team spent nearly half our budget on studs like Cody Ross, Trevor Cahill, and Miguel Montero (combined 2014 WAR of -1.7). We once had Gosewisch bat fifth in the lineup. Our front office made trades with no clear goal in mind. Kirk Gibson instilled neither fire nor passion in his ball club and our famous "grit" was more like a number 1000 polishing cloth than a number 36 belt-sander. The Diamondbacks, NL West punching bag and MLB laughingstock.

How do we get back to being contenders? How do we get back what's been blown away, like a burp in a hurricane?

Looking back over the last season, it's obvious that we have overpaid for poor performance (Trumbo, Cahill, Hill, Arroyo, Ross, Montero) and age (29, 27, 33, 38, 34, and 31, respectively). We've been on the losing end of too many trades, and with the coming of new management, there seemed to be an opportunity for a new approach. I hoped that Dave Stewart would be a rational GM, in the mold of Theo Epstein or Billy Beane, who would build through the drafts, save money, and spend wisely. He did go out an get Yasmani Tomas, so frankly, he earns my respect for that. But it still didn't mitigate my despair over the last trade he made.

When I heard that Stewart gave up Andrew Velazquez (.290 batting average, .367 OBP, 50 stolen bases) and Justin Williams (.351 batting average, .403 OBP) in exchange for Jeremy Hellickson (.1 WAR, 82 ERA+, under team control for two years), I saw the same old, same old: a front office not making the right moves to better the team. I'm  tired of making excuses for general managers who eel-flop all over the boat, ultimately leaving our team in worse shape than before. I'm bitter that our team has no apparent plan; we're not going all-in on free agency, nor are we rebuilding, nor are we building through the draft, nor are we trying to trade well. Nothing. We are rudderless.

We need to clean house and start anew, before we wreck any hope we have of competing in the future. Desperate times call for extreme measures.

I got so fed up, I decided to make a list of ten trades the Diamondbacks could make--right now--that would push the reset button. Because we are (obviously?) in a rebuilding phase, I set out some goals for the next several seasons:

Phase One (next 2 seasons):

1. Reduce our payroll. Add value overall by subtracting.
2. Find younger, promising players who will be under team control and/or inexpensive for several years. Obtain these by trading for top prospects in the first phase, focusing on those with skill sets that project well, and those with some major league time.
3. Move out older, underperforming but valuable veterans to clubs looking to make a run over the next 1-2 seasons.
4. Commit to developing talent in our young players at the major league level. This will be the key to our success. Minimize free agent signings during this phase to save money and continue the youth movement.
5. Accept that the next 2-3 seasons will be difficult for fans.

Phase Two (Seasons 1 + 2, but accelerating through seasons 3 + 4):

1. Rebuild our minor leagues via the draft; we'll get some spillover during this first round of trades.
2. Continue to save money by avoiding free agent trades and getting older obligations off the books
3. We should start doing better as our players improve. I anticipate second place in the division during this time.

Phase Three (somewhere around season 4)

1. Use the money saved to buy missing pieces in the free agent market as we get ready for a pennant run.

If all goes well, we'd have a younger, better team, a better farm system, and a reduced payroll. I've include the trades, an explanation of why we'd make it and they'd take it, and an estimation of the likelihood that the trade would happen.

Here is the first trade I would make. I'll lay out the remaining nine in the next several installments.

Trade #1: Diamondbacks trade 2B Jamie Westbrook (A) and 2B Tyler Bortnick (AAA) to Brewers in exchange for RP Jeremy Jeffress (MLB)

Probability Meter: (60%)

This is an under-the-radar move that would immediately benefit our team. Jeremy Jeffress tossed up a 1.88 ERA, 203 ERA+ and a 25:7 K:BB ratio.

He has better numbers than Aroldis Chapman. Plus, Jeffress is only 27--only a few months older than Craig Kimbrel or Chapman. The reason this bullpen ace is so unheralded is because he is a journeyman, having pitched for three teams already, including two separate stints with the Brewers. That, and his legal troubles with marijuana. He is a three-time violator of the minor league drug of abuse policy, serving both a 50 and a 100 game suspension. He also has juvenile epilepsy. His value is understandably pretty low, which is why giving them two minor league position players should do the trick. Westbrook is a 19-year old second baseman who did pretty well at single-A, considering his age, and Bortnick, at 27, really struggled in the hitter-friendly PCL. However, both players add depth, and Westbrook, in particular, should intrigue the Brewers enough to pull the trigger on this trade.

Intrigued? Fasten your seatbelt for tomorrow's ride.

what else is going on in baseball...

• Where will David Robertson end up? - Sports on Earth
• This article looks at the effects of pitch sequencing. - The Hardball Times
  It comes highly recommended:
  

  Great read about pitching "tunnels": The Effects of Pitch Sequencing http://t.co/1EodeSa8nH (h/t @stlcupofjoe)

  — Aaron Finkel (@Aaron_Finkel) November 30, 2014

• Do PEDs boost performance? Here is their effect on weightlifting. - FiveThirtyEightSports
• 50 Cent talks about growing up a Mets fan. - MLB
• Atlanta Braves ZiPS projections are out. - Fangraphs
• Will the Nationals trade Jordan Zimermann? - MLB

what the cardinals are up to...

KNOW THINE ENEMY...

the nl central

Just a quick shoutout: Viva el Libros, the Viva el Birdos Off Season Book Club has announced the book for December. Radio host, friend of the blog, and all-around good guy, Chris Hrabe has generously offered some of his extra copies. E-mail or tweet me if you are interested at lil_scooter93@msn.com or @lil_scooter93. You can also send me some extra links you have lying around!

@vivaelbirdos@lil_scooter93 I have a couple copies of the book, glad to send them to you guys if you wanna give them away!

— Chris Hrabe (@chrabe) December 1, 2014

Broxton excelled with the Cincinnati Reds, but saw little work after being acquired by the Brewers in August

Sunday, August 31, 2014 is notable for a couple reasons.  After the Giants drubbed the Brewers 15-5, it represented the last time the Brewers would in any way lead (or share in the lead) for the division in 2014.  It was an absolute nose-dive after that as the team finished eight games back of the St. Louis Cardinals.

That day is also notable because the Brewers acquired RHP Jonathan Broxton from the Reds in an effort to bolster a bullpen beset by injuries and declining performances.  From the Reds standpoint, Broxton was a pure salary dump, with the Brewers picking up a small portion of Broxton's $7MM 2014 salary and all of his $9MM 2015 salary, plus at least another $2MM to buy out a 2016 option.  The Reds received pitchers Kevin Shackelford and Barrett Astin in return, which is about as "players-to-be-named-later-ish" as you can get.

At the time, it was a fairly significant trade for the Brewers in that Broxton was expected to shore up the back end of the bullpen, as he had done in Cincinnati.  In reality, the Brewers were in very few competitive or winning efforts down the stretch, so Broxton logged just over ten innings in the final month.  Aside from a blowup outing on September 19 (.1 IP, 4 ER), Broxton was fairly effective, allowing a run in just one other appearance.

Alas, Broxton was not the difference-maker the Brewers had hoped for as the rest of the team slumped badly.  Broxton is assured to be a member of the 2015 squad, however.  Over his ten-year career, he's produced a 3.07 ERA, 2.93 FIP, and 9.8 WAR with about 8 K/9.  Depending on the status of free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, Broxton may well find himself in the closer's seat in 2015.

Best Game

With only eleven appearances, there's not much to choose from.  But Broxton did strike out the side in his one inning of work against his former club on September 25.

Contract Status

Broxton is owed $9MM in salary for 2015.  He also has a $9MM option for 2016 with a $2MM buyout.

Hey, the off season can get pretty boring. It doesn't matter if they're likely or not, let's talk about some trades!

The Winter Meetings start Monday the 8th and run through Thursday the 11th, at which point the Rule 5 Draft will be held. Traditionally the meetings are the most active 4 day period of the winter. All the 30 general managers, their most trusted advisers, most of the notable unsigned players and their agents, most reporters worth his or her salt, and Jon Heyman will all be in one building.

Almost as soon as the World Series ended the Brewers had more or less completed their roster by acquiring Adam Lind and picking up Yovani Gallardo and Aramis Ramirez's options. Since then it's been a pretty uneventful off season for Brewers fans. However, as Doug Melvin likes to say, the Brewers are always open to ways in which they can make their club better.

With that in mind I thought I'd identify and address some of the Brewers potential MLB trade candidates. I'm going to ignore the farm system because it's anyone's guess as to who is or isn't untouchable and who other teams might be interested in.

Yovani Gallardo

Why would someone want him?

Brewers "listening" to offers for Gallardo and Lohse

The Brewers don't seem likely to trade either of the two starters, but will seemingly be listening to offers in case something blows them away.

It was a forgone conclusion the Brewers would exercise their modestly priced team option for Yovani Gallardo. He's fallen short of "ace" expectations but is still a solid and dependable mid-rotation starter. Depending on the cost to acquire him, I can't believe there is a single team that wouldn't be interested in having him in their rotation.

I won't hazard a guess as to what the Brewers could expect in return, but it could easily be a decent haul. He has a career 3.69 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, and 3.70 SIERA. He can slot into the middle of all but the most elite rotations and could be a solid number 2 in others. His $13 million price tag shouldn't be considered an obstacle in 2015.

There's also the matter of the qualifying offer to consider. Gallardo would enter free agency after the 2015 at the age of 29 (30 on opening day). Right now he has 6 straight seasons of 30+ starts (only one of which could be considered poor). It'd likely be 7 if it weren't for a freak accident covering first base that sidelined him for most of 2008. He has no injury red flags. My point is, assuming a reasonably successful 2015 season, there is no way he'd accept a qualifying offer even in the range of $16 million. So the team that trades for him gets the potential draft pick compensation.

Why would the Brewers give him up?

The Brewers are in an enviable position of having 6 pretty solid options for 5 rotation spots. If they traded Gallardo they could try their luck with a rotation of Kyle Lohse - Wily Peralta - Matt Garza - Mike Fiers - Jimmy Nelson. It would also clear $13 million from the payroll. They could leave that money open for mid-season acquisitions or use it to find a replacement for Gallardo on the free agent market. Bringing in a guy like Brandon McCarthy or Francisco Liriano would provide the Brewers with a similar level of talent in their rotation and more long term security in said rotation, with either of those players presumably being signed for 3 or 4 years.

Why the Brewers wouldn't want to give him up.

Depth is an often overlooked and underappreciated aspect of team building. This goes double for the rotation as it's not uncommon for teams to use 7 or 8 (or more) starters throughout a season. Removing a starter from the rotation severely limits the Brewers currently solid depth. It moves Jimmy Nelson, a pitcher with limited MLB experience, from reserve to starter and slots Taylor Jungmann, a pitcher with limited AAA experience, into the number 6 spot. After him, as of right now, there isn't a clear 7th option. That's very risky. They'd have to add to depth either by finding a replacement starter (but wouldn't be guaranteed to find one as effective as Gallardo) or finding a long reliever capable of starting. The Brewers want to strengthen their 2015 roster, not potentially weaken it.

Kyle Lohse

Why would someone want him?

Most of what I said about Gallardo applies to Lohse. He wasn't terribly effective in his early career but at this point we can ignore that. He's a different pitcher now. He's proven to be a solid mid-rotation starter over the past 4 seasons. In fact, one can argue that he's been a better pitcher over the last 4 years than Gallardo. He has a marginally lower price tag at $11 million.

He does have 2 things that don't go in his favor. At age 36 Kyle Lohse will be rather old in 2015. This means two things. First off, that puts a bigger question mark on his durability and health. He has made 30+ starts in the each of the previous 4 seasons though, so that's not necessarily a huge concern. However, because of his age (and his last experience in free agency) it's exceedingly unlikely he'd turn down a qualifying offer. In other words, the team that trades for him can't fall back on getting the draft pick compensation.

Why would the Brewers give him up?

Again, for most of the same reasons they'd be willing to move Gallardo. I think the returns would be similar, but because of Lohse's two downsides, he might be worth somewhat less. Even so, the idea of trading him and securing a starter from free agency to strengthen the rotation now and over the next few years could be appealing to Milwaukee. Also, by trading Lohse and keep Gallardo they could be the ones to net a draft pick if/when he leaves via free agency.

Why the Brewers wouldn't want to give him up.

Again, same reasons as Gallardo. Also one could hope that Lohse regains some of the #2-nigh-ace potential he showed in his final two seasons with the Cardinals and, to a lesser degree, his first season with the Brewers. If that were to happen he'd very likely be the best performing starter in the rotation for the Brewers.

Gerardo Parra

Why would someone want him?

Gerardo Parra was a 4.6 win player as recently as 2013. He has good defense in center field and borderline elite defense in the corners, especially in right field where his plus arm is most useful. His bat is at best league average, but it's not crazy to think someone could view him as a starter. If that's the case, his potential $6-7 million price tag goes from "pricey for 4th outfielder" to  "bargain for a starter."

Why would the Brewers give him up?

Probably mostly for salary relief. As mentioned, he's bound to make $6+ million in his final year of arbitration. That is rather expensive for a 4th outfielder. If the Brewers think they can find comparable performance from a less costly player, it would make sense to open up money for other upgrades to the bench or bullpen.

Why the Brewers wouldn't want to give him up.

Khris Davis is still a relatively unknown commodity. Ryan Braun's thumb is still a concern. The in-house option is Logan Schafer and while he's a comparable defender to Parra, his putrid bat absolutely destroys any value he might have. It's not that easy to find even a league average left-handed bat that can play all 3 outfield positions, especially for cheap. It might not be possible at all. If the Brewers are stuck with Logan Schafer again, they'll probably have reduced their overall team effectiveness by over 1 WAR. It's hard to make that up elsewhere on the bench or in the bullpen.

Khris Davis

Why would someone want him?

Teams are always in need of power and Davis definitely has power. You'd have to go back to 136 plate appearances at AA in 2011 to find the only time he had an ISO below .200. In fact, Khris Davis had the 15th highest ISO in all of baseball in 2014.

Much as been made of his poor defense, but Fangraphs rated him the 7th best defender to play left field full time in 2014. He was 6th by both DRS and UZR. His throwing arm is pretty bad, but overall he's serviceable in left field.

The team that acquires him would retain control over him for 5 more seasons. Two of those seasons would be pre-arbitration and so Davis would make league minimum.

Why would the Brewers give him up?

In 2013 Mark Trumbo was involved in a trade that netted the Angels Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago. Several months ago Oakland tradedYoenis Cespedes (and their Comp B pick) for Jon Lester. These two players aren't perfect comparisons to Khris Davis. Cespedes is a better defender, but he also only had 1 year left on his contract at $10 million. Trumbo had a couple more years of experience, a little more power, and a little less defense. Khris Davis is a little less proven than those players were when traded, but also offers more years of team control.

They all have a similar bats though. Take a look at this (and let it be known I'm cheating a bit, but there's a method to my madness):

What I did was ignore Trumbo and Davis' partial seasons as well as Cespedes' first season in the majors (before pitching adjusted to him). I know, I know. It's not entirely fair. Arbitrary endpoints and all that. But it's pretty interesting how similar their bats are.

Just so you know I'm not skewing things in favor of Khris Davis here's the link to all their stats from 2011-2014. Obviously the plate appearances are different because they've been in the MLB for different periods.

Anyway, my point here is that Doug Melvin could make an argument that the only thing really separating these players in value is name recognition (okay yeah and Cespedes' better fielding ability but cut me some slack, will ya!).

Why the Brewers wouldn't want to give him up.

Well, for all the reasons I listed above. Sure, they could part with him and have Parra take over. They might even get 2 wins out of him which is pretty close to what one might expect to get out of Khris Davis. But then what? Parra is a free agent after this year. Khris Davis has the potential to be a solid 2 win player for the Brewers who is under team control for another five seasons.

While I believe it's possible to make an argument that Davis has similar value to Trumbo and Cespedes, it's likely they still couldn't get very much in a trade at this point in his career. If the Brewers couldn't get something they perceived as fair value they simply wouldn't do it.

My Take

The team is pretty well complete at the moment which I actually think gives the front office and Doug Melvin an advantage. They don't have to feel pressure to finalize a deal because they don't know what the future will hold. They don't have to worry about finding an alternative option in free agency. They know exactly what the team will look like if they don't do one trade or another. That makes cost/risks vs benefits analysis that much easier and accurate.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Brewers made some kind of trade at the winter meetings. At the same time, I fully expect them to stay more or less inactive. They need at least one reliever, but no more than two. They could benefit from upgrading a spot on the bench, but they have enough in-house options that it's not necessary. These are the sorts of moves that are relatively easy to accomplish in free agency. The payroll is such that they can spend a little bit more and don't at all have to worry about shedding salary.

I don't think they trade one of their starters. Depth is way too important and they already dinged that a bit by parting with Marco Estrada. Unless they feel confident in bringing in a comparable free agent I just don't see them taking the chance.

They aren't trading Khris Davis. End of.

If anything, I could see them trading Gerardo Parra for a reliever. Depending on the reliever I'd be a little sad as I really believe they'd come out a bit worse given the negative impact Logan Schafer would have. But it wouldn't be something that breaks the team. It could also give them more money to spend which might end up being meaningful.

Vote in the poll and let me know if there is anyone I didn't mention that you think stands a chance of being traded.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs