And they get to relax a bit with the smart Adam Lind trade.
The Brewers' collapse didn't get enough attention. We switched from wondering what in the heck happened to the Giants right to wondering what in the heck happened to the A's, as if a lazy cloud of suck blew slowly across the Bay. While that was happening, the Brewers were falling even further, even quicker.
My pet theory: They needed a first baseman. The Brewers opened the season messing around with Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay, the baseball equivalent of a person using a Hotmail account to forward Christian Bale's on-set tirade to someone in 2014.
The Brewers had to, had to, had to know what they were getting into with a Reynolds/Overbay platoon. The upside was maybe an extra win over their replacement options. The downside was an arrangement that made less sense than Matt Clark.
That was from a September article, half-seriously blaming the entire slide on the Brewers' first base void. But there was a little sympathy for the GM mixed in, noting that first base has turned into a position that's almost impossible to fill with external options for every major league team. If teams don't have an internal option, luck isn't on their side. The odds aren't on their side. Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay might be on their side, but only by default.
Heading into this offseason, the Brewers had one primary goal: find a first baseman. Within a week of the season ending: The Brewers found a first baseman.
Adam Lind's renaissance from 2013 spilled into 2014, and he produced when he was healthy. It wasn't that long ago that he looked absolutely lost at the plate, striking out five times for every walk he took. We're over 800 plate appearances into the renaissance, though, and he was probably the safest trade target out there. The Brewers gave up a 31-year-old swingman who managed to lead the National League in home runs allowed, despite throwing just 150 innings. Marco Estrada is a potentially useful player, but his stats are all going in the wrong direction, and the years are working against him. Lind is a much better bet to help the Brewers as currently constructed.
One of the other questions the Brewers had was at third base, with Aramis Ramirez and his mutual option. The Brewers were willing to bring him back, but no one ever agrees on a mutual option ... except this time. Ramirez probably figured that a guaranteed $14 million salary in a comfortable situation was preferable to slipping down the slippery Kendrys Morales slope, with draft pick compensation ruining his market value more than anyone anticipated. Whatever the reason, the Brewers are happy. They don't have to mess with the lineup any more this offseason if they don't want to.
It's a good start to a tricky offseason for the Brewers. They might be the team in baseball with the greatest sense of urgency, the franchise that has the best reasons in baseball to make panicked win-now moves. Consider:
- Ryan Braun will be 31, and he's coming off the worst season of his career
- Kyle Lohse is signed only through 2015, and he wouldn't be a great bet after that, at any rate
- The incredibly prescient Carlos Gomez extension has just two seasons left, after which he might get $150 million or more on the open market
- The Brewers' farm system was widely regarded as one of the worst in baseball before last season, and that's not likely to change much before next season
- The team still draws remarkably well for a small-market team, but that might not be the case for an extended rebuilding period
Add it up, and you have a team that would be excused for panicking and making erratic moves, which makes the calm, reasonable Adam Lind deal somewhat refreshing. The Brewers have a first baseman. They get to keep their old third baseman. They can breathe, just a little bit, before approaching the marketplace with sacks of win-now cash.
If I were running the Brewers, there would probably be a smoking crater in the shape of Milwaukee because I would be an awful GM. If we pretend that's not the case, though, my offseason advice for the Brewers would to be to do the one thing that's never a good idea: Spend, spend, spend on a bullpen. David Robertson. Pat Neshek. Andrew Miller. Sergio Romo. Get them all on a conference call and explain exactly how nice the area is in the spring and summer. Leave the lineup untouched, save for some depth and extra pieces, add another starting pitcher to the established quartet in place, and spend too much on a bullpen that might not work.
There are other options. Pay a premium for one of the best starting pitchers on the market. Explore the outfield market aggressively, and turn Khris Davis into a valuable spare part. See if Jean Segura still has enough trade value to be the centerpiece of something substantial, and fill his spot with a stopgap. If it were up to me, I'd ignore everything I've ever written and spend on relievers. When the contracts look horrible, the Brewers might be so far down a ditch, it won't even matter.
The Brewers aren't doomed. Every team is just three years away from turning everything around, for better or worse. The available evidence points to the Brewers having a much better chance of winning in 2015 than 2016, though. They should have a little urgency. The Lind deal (and the Ramirez re-signing) help them play it cool at the start of the offseason, at least. There's a lot of offseason left -- too much damned offseason -- and there's still a lot of time for the Brewers to shake off their historic collapse.