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What we learned: October 16, 2014

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Today's lessons include overpaying players, revisiting the firing of Ned Yost, and more.

There are situations where overpaying a player is okay.

As contract prices have gone up year by year, there has been more of a focus on getting maximum value out of every contract. Overpaying a player is seen as a problem, because it means that the money isn't being used in a proper way. However, overpaying a player may not be the worst thing to do, especially when it fills a need. Derek visited this idea in relation to first base yesterday, specifically in the case of Adam LaRoche. The first base position has been a massive issue for the Brewers in the last few years, and has become very evident with the options that the Brewers are using. In this case, overpaying a player may be the right move, especially if all of the other options are in bad shape. It may not be an ideal move, but paying a little more for a player can be a good idea if it strengthens the team enough.

Despite Ned Yost leading the Royals to the World Series, he's not that good of a manager.

In Milwaukee, there's a lot of unhappiness building in regards to Ron Roenicke as manager of the Brewers. Some people think he should have been fired after the season. Meanwhile, in Kansas City, former manager Ned Yost has the Royals in the World Series. Naturally, this has led some people to think that firing Ned Yost was a bad idea. However, Jordan has a reminder that Ned Yost is not a good manager, just a manager with a good team. Looking at the Royals team, it was built in a way that Ned Yost couldn't screw it up. The team covers up Yost's flaws by allowing his decisions to be good ones because of the results. As tough as it is to watch him manage in the World Series, it's important to stay positive that the Brewers will get there, and do it their own way.

Cram Session

More from BCB

Other Notes

Postseason Update

Yesterday's Games

  • AL Championship Series Game 4
    Royals 2, Orioles 1
    Royals Win Series 4-0
  • NL Championship Series Game 4
    Giants 6, Cardinals 4
    Giants Lead Series 3-1

Today's Games

  • NL Championship Series Game 5
    Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) @ Giants (Madison Bumgarner)
    Giants Lead Series 3-1

News & Notes


A sleeper who woke up: Mike Fiers, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

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Mike Fiers of the Milwaukee Brewers was a 22nd round pick with $2,500 bonus. He now has over 200 innings of quality major league pitching on his resume. Here's how it happened.

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Mike Fiers was in the news for all the wrong reasons last month after he sent Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlinsto the hospital. That incident might overshadow what Fiers did the rest of the season, but that would be a mistake. The fact is that he pitched excellently: 2.13 ERA in 72 innings, 76/17 K/BB, 46 hits, 2.99 FIP. He ran up 1.6 fWAR in 10 starts and four relief appearances. Included in that was his 14-strikeout destruction of the Cubs on August 14th, but he wasn't a one-start phenom.

Fiers allowed three earned runs or less in every one of his 10 starts. Only once did he fail to go at least five innings, and only once did he allow four runs. And never did he allow five or more.

Fiers pitched well in 2012 too; the only time he hasn't pitched well was in 2013 when he was injured. Fiers now has 224 major league innings to his credit, with a 3.54 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 113 ERA+, 228/62 K/BB, 201 hits allowed, and 4.1 fWAR. In 162-game notation, that would be a 182/50 K/BB in 179 innings. 3.3 fWAR.

That's very good, yet Fiers was never considered a top prospect. Some people never considered him a prospect at all. He is the ultimate Sleeper who Woke Up and here is how it happened.

Fiers pitched college baseball at Nova Southeastern University in Florida. He had a marvelous season in 2009, posting a 2.65 ERA in 109 innings with a spectacular 145/19 K/BB ratio and just 87 hits allowed. He led NCAA Division II in strikeouts. However, he was already 24 years old, his college career having been slowed by injuries, and he didn't throw hard. He got drafted though, in the 22nd round by the Milwaukee Brewers, earning a tiny $2,500 bonus due to his complete lack of leverage.

He had leverage over hitters however, posting a 35/1 K/BB and a 1.29 ERA in 21 innings in his pro debut for Helena in the Pioneer League. He moved back into starting in 2010, posting a 3.53 ERA with a 130/32 K/BB in 125 innings combined between High-A Brevard County and Double-A Huntsville. Scouts were skeptical, but here's the report I filed for 2011:

Mike Fiers was a nice surprise for the Brewers last year. Drafted in the 22nd round out of Nova Southeastern University in 2009, Fiers was old when drafted at 24. He pitched very well last year in the Florida State League, and continued to pitch well after moving up to Double-A. His component ratios were strong across the board…everything was above average. He also posted a 17/3 K/BB in 19 innings in the Arizona Fall League. As you probably expect, Fiers doesn’t have a hot fastball at just 88 MPH, but he throws strikes, changes speeds with his breaking ball like a master, and can start or relieve. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him reach the majors in 2011 as either a fifth starter or a relief option. Grade C, but a sleeper.

Fiers took a gigantic leap forward in 2011, posting a 2.64 ERA with a 63/14 K/BB in 61 innings for Huntsville, an even better 1.11 ERA with a 69/22 K/BB in 65 innings for Triple-A Nashville, and finishing the season with two shutout relief innings for the Brewers. I saw one of his starts for Nashville and despite putting lots of "86s" and "87s" on the radar gun, the hitters looked helpless against him, completely fooled by his delivery and overmatched by a quality curveball and change-up. The report entering 2012:

That turned out better than I could have possibly hoped, since Fiers had a tremendous season in the upper minors and reached the majors in September. As written last year, his velocity is nothing special, but his breaking ball and changeup are quite effective and he knows how to pitch. He has an over-the-top delivery that reminds some observers of Josh Collmenter’s, and we know what Collmenter did last year in Arizona.  Fiers delivers all of his pitches with exactly the same release point; he doesn’t telegraph anything. He turns 27 in June and isn’t a typical prospect, but there are no holes in his statistics, and if he maintains this sort of command he should continue to succeed. Grade C+.

Fiers spent most of 2012 with the Brewers and pitched well, posting a 3.74 ERA in 128 innings with a 135/36 K/BB. Hampered by injuries in 2013, he was much less effective (7.25 ERA in 22 innings for the Brewers, giving up 28 hits although with a 15/6 K/BB). He was something of a forgotten man entering 2014, written off by many people as a fluke who got lucky in '12. However, he returned to health this year, was completely dominant in Triple-A (2.55 ERA, 129/17 K/BB in 102 innings for Nashville, just 80 hits) and did the best pitching of his life after being promoted to the majors again this summer.

Facts and thoughts about Fiers:

***His fastball tops out at 92 and is usually in the 87-89 range, sometimes as low as 85-86. Despite the lack of classic velocity, hitters don't read the fastball well due to his over-the-top delivery and the contrast of the heat with his secondary pitches.

Mike Fiers, photo by Tom Lynn, Getty Images


***Said secondary pitches are diverse: he has a slow curve in the 68-75 range, a change-up in 77-84 territory, and a cuttery sliderish thingie that can hit any spot in the 80s. The quality of his secondary pitches seems to improve from year to year. He can locate his pitches to any spot in the strike zone, isn't afraid to work hitters high, and excels at disrupting hitters' timing.

***Despite his finesse arsenal, his component ratios (strikeout rate, hit rate) are those of a power pitcher. They always have been. In college, A-ball, Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, Fiers has seldom been hit hard. When healthy, he has always been effective, even against top competition.

Since he doesn't throw 97 MPH, Fiers will fight skeptics. But in this case, I think you have to throw the radar guns away. Fiers has proven what he can do and it is up to the hitters now to prove that they can handle him. So far, they haven't.

Looking forward, I wouldn't expect a 2.13 ERA in a full season. But Fiers' overall career numbers (3.54 ERA, 113 ERA+) don't seem like a fluke to me. I think he's a legitimately above-average starting pitcher and a gigantic bargain as a $2,500 late-round draft pick.

Here's the 14 strikeouts against the Cubs. Note how the hitters are unable to unlock the secret of Fiers' 88 MPH fastball.

The long, winding road for Lorenzo Cain

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If you think the Royals weren't supposed to be here, Lorenzo Cain REALLY wasn't supposed to be here. Yet, here we are.

Lorenzo Cain just won the Lee MacPhail ALCS MVP trophy. Think about that for a minute: the 28-year old outfielder who had never posted a wRC+ above average since his 43-game debut back in 2010 took home the most valuable player hardware for the Royals, on their magical quest for a World Series title. Of course, anything can happen over a short sample, and the Royals made sure it was the shortest sample possible with their sweep of the Orioles, but it was a culmination of sorts, as well as a great testament to why players with promise shouldn't be given up on.

Cain was drafted in the 17th round of the 2004 Rule 4 Draft out of a Florida high school, 496th overall, by the Brewers. Given his draft position, he wasn't thought too highly of as a prep player. Sure, the potential was in there, but Cain hadn't started playing baseball until his sophomore year of high school (when he received his very first baseball glove) and was presumably raw by the time he was drafted. In a world where draft prospects are noticed early in the process by scouts through traveling teams and youth showcases, Cain was late to the party. By the time he was a senior he'd turned himself into a draft-worthy player but hardly one of certain promise.

Keep the tools in mind, however, when thinking of Cain. He's everything a scout, coach or fan can dream on, checking in at 6'2" and 185-pounds with speed to burn and oozing athleticism when he was selected. Unrefined? Perhaps, but teams take dozens of these kinds of chances every year in the draft and sometimes they pan out. Cain's story is along those lines as the raw tools eventually translated into results. After two season in rookie ball and one at High-A, he started to finally climb the Brewers' ladder in 2008, when he put up wRC+s of 125 and 128 in High-A and AA, respectively. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein took notice in his 2009 Future Shock review:

Year in Review: The toolsy outfielder rebounded from a tough 2007 campaign, making major strides in translating his athletic ability into baseball skills.

The Good: Milwaukee credits Cain's step forward to a more disciplined approach, as he learned to lay off of breaking balls out of the strike zone and wait for pitches that he can drive. This also allowed him to begin to tap into his power, as his 11 home runs represented a career high, and with five more in the Arizona Fall League, the Brewers dream about him hitting 20 or more homers eventually. He has above-average speed, and is a good baserunner and a solid center fielder.

The Bad: Cain's game still needs some refinement. He can fall in love with his power at times, and becomes a bit pull-conscious. He still needs to work on his outfield play, particularly his jumps and reads. There are fears that if he can't stay in center, he'll profile as more of a tweener.

Perfect World Projection: He's not a huge impact player, but a nice everyday center fielder who can beat you in a variety of ways.

Glass Half Empty: He becomes a fourth outfielder who can play all three spots.

Cain lost time in 2009 due to injury and performed poorly when on the diamond, missing the cut and finding his way off the Brewers' top prospect list. He was good in the high minors in 2010 and earned a promotion to the big leagues, where he logged 43 games, slashing .310/.348/.415 in his rookies season, good enough for a 107 wRC+ with seven steals and 11 doubles. As predicted, he notched positive defensive values with a UZR/150 of 5.4, accrued primarily from playing in center, in addition to a handful of innings in left and right. The Brewers had their center fielder of the future on their hands.

And then they didn't.

In December of 2010, Cain was traded, along with Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi, for Zack Greinke. It was a blockbuster of a deal, as the Brewers sent four highly-regarded players to the Royals in exchange for the 2009 Cy Young winner. The change was likely tough to embrace for Cain and his fellow tradees. Kansas City had lost at least 93 games in seven of the previous eight seasons, making it one of baseball's blackest of black holes. The change of scenery didn't exactly improve Cain's performance: It was back to AAA for Cain with the Royals, save for a six-game trial where he didn't turn heads. But his minor league time appeared useful, as he was excellent over 128 games.

The extra seasoning was perhaps just what the doctor ordered, due to his lack of overall baseball experience. He was 25, however, and it would have been easy to dismiss his AAA performance. 2012 was destined to be his breakout, but the universe had other plans. Instead of bursting onto the major league baseball map, Cain was derailed by a series of injuries, starting with the fifth game of the major league season. He was injured trying to rehab and only managed to log 61 games with the Royals, in which he put up 1.7 fWAR, mostly on the back of strong center field defense. Still, it was a sign that if Cain could stay healthy and contribute for a whole season, he might just turn into a real difference-maker.

This is obviously what the Royals were hoping for when the 27-year-old reclaimed the center field job in 2013, but Cain fizzled at the plate. His 80 wRC+ over 115 games was not what anyone was hoping for, and with Jarrod Dyson knocking on the door, Cain either lost playing time or was moved to right field on occasion. In yet another year when it was all supposed to come together for Cain, the results were less inspiring than hoped for. His defense in the outfield saved his value, however, as he was able to accumulate 2.7 fWAR thanks to a UZR/150 of 29.2, fourth-best in the majors for all outfielders. He had the defense thing covered, but the bat was still lagging. Although he'd posted a career minor league slash line of .294/.366/.430, he managed a measly .251/.310/.348 and left a lot to be desired. Worst of all, the clock was ticking; as he approached his age-28 season, Cain's leash most certainly was tightening considering the team's aspirations heading into the 2014 season.

And then it all clicked. He hit for more power. He stole more bases. He was more consistent. He played a career-high number of games, and even managed to get luck on his side. The defense held, the offense came around, and when the dust settled, Cain put up nearly 5 fWAR in his long-awaited breakout campaign, good enough for seventh-best among all major league center fielders. As you can imagine, the timing couldn't have been better. The Royals scratched and clawed their way into the playoffs with only one extra game to spare. An untimely falter by Cain (or any of his teammates) could have seen the Royals at home right now rather than entering the World Series for the first time in 29 years.

Instead, Lorenzo Cain finally blossomed before our eyes. The physical gifts turned into defensive and offensive production and Royals have certainly needed every bit of it he could muster. On the biggest stage of his career, Cain was stellar in the ALCS, going 8 for 15 (.533) with five runs scored, two walks and three strikeouts while making highlight reel catches appear entirely routine. He certainly captured America's attention during the series as the Royals pushed their magical season one step closer to completion.

This is Lorenzo Cain: a guy that wasn't supposed to play baseball, wasn't drafted highly, rarely received accolades in the minors, was traded to one of baseball's worst-performing franchises, suffered from injuries, failed to perform in the majors and looked to be on the verge of washing out as a defense-only player at best. Instead, that vision that Kevin Goldstein and countless other scouts had seen for Cain in the past finally manifested itself. It came at the perfect time for his team, as they're one step away from a World Series crown. Baseball's funny sometimes, and I guess that's why we watch it. Lorenzo Cain's been magnificent, and he's certainly worth watching, too.

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All stats courtesy of FanGraphs.

Jeff Wiser is a featured writer at Beyond the Box Score and co-author of Inside the 'Zona, an analytical look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. You can find his work on craft beer at BeerGraphs and follow him on Twitter @OutfieldGrass24.

Reflecting on the 2014 St. Louis Cardinals

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Thank you, St. Louis Cardinals baseball, for another memorable season.

As I sit here on my 24th birthday wishing I was getting mentally prepared for game seven of the National League Championship Series, I instead find myself looking back on the 2014 St. Louis Cardinals—a team that was as enjoyable as they were maddening. In March, if you would have told me the Cardinals would lose to the Giants after just five games in the NLCS, I would have laughed at you given the team's expectations coming into the season. Halfway through, though, when the Milwaukee Brewers just were not going away, I would have gladly taken a National League Championship Series appearance. However, when the Brewers fell off and the Cardinals outlasted the Pirates, my expectations returned to where they were preseason. When the offense decided it could hit home runs in the playoffs, my expectations peaked. Unfortunately, here we are: two days away from the start of the World Series, and the team representing the state of Missouri is not the St. Louis Cardinals.

There are over a million ways to reflect on a 171-game season. What I've quickly learned is that following the team as a blogger is so much different than following the team as a fan because you watch games and look at statistics in hopes of finding something worthy to write about. I cannot even begin to imagine how many highlight videos I've watched, how many times I've visited BrooksBaseball, or how many times I've been on Fangraphs this season. The following players, topics, and moments are what I chose to reflect on today.

Adam Wainwright

How will I remember Wainwright's 2014? His one-hit complete-game shutout of the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 20th clearly stands out, but that's not what is going to stick with me for many years to come. Not even close. After two miserable starts in the playoffs, I, among others, was calling for Waino to "take a step back" as it just didn't seem like the team had its best chance to win with him on the mound. Man, I was foolish. The ace proved me wrong in a very big way.

Prior to game five, I noted that in order for Wainwright to be successful, he needed to throw 40-45% fastballs, implying good command of the pitches and also the ability to set up his devastating breaking ball. Per BrooksBaseball, 49% of his pitches were either his fourseamer (37%) or his sinker (12%), so it makes sense that he returned to form this time around. The life on his fastballs (max fourseamer: 93.9 MPH, max sinker: 94.0 MPH) was definitely a positive. Yet, one can be reasonably worried about the future of Wainwright's arm health. It popped up back in June and still managed to wreak havoc in October. Considering he has thrown the most innings in the majors since returning from Tommy John, it is imperative that the Cardinals construct a plan for managing his innings going forward.

Lance Lynn

Lynn topped 200 innings for the second straight season and outperformed his FIP (3.35) with an ERA of 2.74 (14th best in the MLB). Given some of Waino's up's and down's that correlated with his arm health, Lynn was the most consistent starting pitcher for the Cardinals this season, as he recorded 24 quality starts in 33 chances. He allowed more than three earned runs in only four starts this season. It may have taken 126 pitches, but the smile/smirk on Lynn's face after his first-career complete game shutout is definitely a must-watch moment from 2014:

Carlos Martinez

Looking back on El Gallo's season (especially the postseason), I'm puzzled because I'm not entirely sure what his role was with the 2014 Cardinals. However, considering he very clearly has the best stuff on the roster, I hope the organization removes his training wheels and gives him a legitimate shot at the starting rotation next season. It is time to see if the 23-year-old righty is up for the challenge. After all, some of his pitches just aren't fair:

Matt Holliday

Statistically speaking, Holliday had a slight decline in 2014 (3.8 fWAR from 4.4 and 4.5 the seasons before). However, his ability to do the following makes him a legitimate threat every time through the order:

As an aside, I will discuss Matt Holliday in full in a post later on in the offseason.

Jhonny Peralta

Four years, $53 million for a 32-year-old, supposedly out-of-shape shortstop fresh off a Biogenesis suspension? I would be lying if I said I wasn't in the least bit surprised by this deal. Yet, despite what Jon Heyman may think, Peralta was simply fantastic in 2014, both at the plate and in the field. Sure, he struggled mightily at the plate in the playoffs, but I give him a pass considering he was the team's regular season MVP and there is zero chance they win the division without him. Plus, he suffered from the BABIP monster in game five of the NLCS, and if the Cardinals would have found a way to get to game six and beyond, I honestly think we would seen him return to usual form—smacking liners and lifting loud fly balls to the outfield.

Will he be able to stay at shortstop for three more seasons? Who knows, but in terms of UZR (12.0) and DRS (17), he was a top four defensive shortstop in all of baseball this season. The front-loading of his contract will come into play should his performance decline as he creeps toward 33 years of age. Nothing from what I saw this season worries me about this happening, but one can never be too sure when discussing the health of the human body.

Jon Jay

Coming into 2014, there were two main knocks on Jay: 1) he's a singles-only hitter and 2) his below-average defense, particularly his route running and his poor arm. Well, Jay is still pretty much a singles-only hitter (ISO of .075), but his .372 on-base percentage was second highest on the team (behind Carpenter's .375), an always-desirable feature at the top of any lineup, and his wRC+ of 115 was nothing to sneeze at, either. Though single-season fielding metrics are not the most reliable at all, Jay had his best defensive season in center with a 6.0 UZR and 5 DRS. The main takeaway is that though Jay won't necessarily wow anyone with the glove—he’s very clearly not Peter Bourjos out there—he’s also not as bad as his 2013 metrics suggest. Of note, I cannot wait for the full arrival of MLB's Advanced Media replays (check out one below):

Due for second-year arbitration over the offseason, Jay will see a raise from the $3.25 million he made this season. If I were to pin a number on it without doing too much research, I would have it in the high $5 million to low $6 million range for Jay. Because of this, there is a real chance this was the last time we saw Jay don the Birds on the Bat, especially considering the "log-jam" of outfielders that all provide cheaper alternatives. Personally, I think this idea is silly considering Jay has already proven capable of being a solid MLB outfielder, while we still have no clue what to expect from guys like Randal GrichukTommy Pham, and Stephen Piscotty, but trading away Jay while he's valuable seems to be a growing trend among Cardinals fans. We will see very soon.

John Mozeliak

Most people love him. Yet, some people dislike him—citing the weakness of the bench over the last two seasons. First, let's agree that very few teams have productive benches. Second, Mozeliak tried to improve the bench this season. Adding Mark Ellis, a ~2.4 fWAR per season player, to bolster the infield seemed like a really good deal at the time. Did it work out? No, it most definitely didn't, but it was a much more valiant effort than the addition of Ty Wigginton in December of 2012.

The trade for Justin Masterson obviously didn't work out either, but it was a risk Mozeliak had to take, given the state of the rotation and the organizational depth at the outfield position. The acquisition of John Lackey and Corey Littrell for Joe Kelly and an aching Allen Craig will go down as one of Mozeliak's very best moves, in my opinion. Kelly is one my all-time favorites, but it was a deal that had to be done, not really because of Kelly but because getting Craig's back-loaded contract off the books frees up some flexibility for Mozeliak moving forward.

Mike Matheny

Finally, there was no way I could make it through an entire season reflection post without at least taking a look at manager Mike Matheny. Nope, I'm not going to criticize his tactical decisions. Our staff (with Ben being the first to coin the term "Mathenaging," Bernie Miklasz, and Will Leitch have all already done a terrific job at that. My one complaint lies with the way he managed Oscar Taveras.

Taveras was considered the top two or three prospect in all of baseball over the last two seasons, mainly because of his supreme hit tool. When Craig was traded to the Red Sox, Taveras was inserted into the starting lineup and despite having a fairy-tale start to his big-league career, he began to struggle soon thereafter. Understandably, the manager gave some time to right-handed hitting Grichuk, another young outfielder. Grichuk experienced some immediate success, especially on defense, but this time, when he began to struggle, he didn't lose playing time. The hit tool of Taveras makes him a threat against both righties and lefties, but at the very least, I would have accepted a strict platoon, especially in the playoffs. Matheny didn't do this, though. He stuck with Grichuk (.158/.158/.316 in 36 postseason PAs), even with righties on the mound, and as early as April or May next season, we are going to see how silly this actually was.

Thank you, St. Louis Cardinals baseball, for another memorable season. Is it time for pitchers and catchers to report yet?

Monday Bird Droppings

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It's October 20, near the halfway point of football season and the World Series hasn't even started yet. It's going to be a long offseason, isn't it?

School of Roch: Orioles still conducting business as World Series approaches
It is the season of minor league free agents. Julio De Paula, we hardly knew ya.

2014 Minor League Ball AFL Gameday, October 19th - Minor League Ball
Really nice outing for Zach Davies this weekend in the Arizona Fall League.

Should Zach Britton be a Starter? - Baltimore Sports and Life
Not as crazy as you might think.

Baltimore Orioles: What to do with Markakis?
If you love something, set it free...

Camden Depot: MASN and the RSDC Agh...

Sunday Notes: Tazawa’s Role, Perkins’ Bullets, Butler, Buck, Baseball Americana | FanGraphs Baseball
Some nice bits on Buck and Chris Tillman.

On this day in 2009, Rick Peterson was hired as Brewers pitching coach. A little more than a year later, he was replaced with Rick Kranitz.

What we learned: October 20, 2014

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It's a quick set of lessons today from a quiet weekend around baseball.

Cram Session

Postseason Update

World Series Game 1 is on October 21.

News & Notes

Jonathan Lucroy is the 2014 Most Valuable Brewer

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You voted over the weekend, and the results were overwhelming. By a very wide margin, Jonathan Lucroy is who you voted as the Most Valuable Brewer of 2014.

2013 MVBrewers Rank: #2

We collected your votes over the weekend, and the results were overwhelming. Over 90% of you chose Jonathan Lucroy as your Most Valuable Brewer of 2014, and it wasn't even close.

It would take a long time to truly talk about what Jonathan Lucroy has meant not only to this season for the Brewers, but to the franchise as a whole. The Brewers have gone through some dark days at catcher. There were years where replacement level was the best the fans could hope for from the catcher. Here are some stats by fWAR to put it in perspective:

  • Only five other Brewers catchers have a higher career fWAR as a Brewer than Jonathan Lucroy's single-season fWAR in 2014.
  • With his 6.3 fWAR in 2014, Lucroy is now the top catcher in Brewers history by fWAR. Lucroy has a career fWAR of 15.5 as a catcher, followed by B.J. Surhoff at 14.2.
  • There is a period of 10 seasons (2001-2010) where the Brewers had a total of two seasons by a catcher with a fWAR over 1.0 (Damian Miller in 2005, Jason Kendall in 2008). During that period, they also had one season (2004) where every catcher had a negative fWAR. The combined fWAR over those 10 seasons at catcher was 6.9.
  • If Lucroy was paid by his fWAR, he would have made $34.6 million this season. His actual salary was $2 million in 2014.

I could go on for a while listing stats about how good Lucroy is in comparison to Brewers franchise history. The bottom line is that the Brewers have needed a catcher like Lucroy for a long time, and they finally have him now.

Let's talk about some of Jonathan Lucroy's season stats now. He put up a .301/.373/.465 batting line in 2014, and is the first Brewer (who qualifies by PA) to bat .300 since Ryan Braun's MVP season in 2011. His 53 doubles this season tied the franchise record held by Lyle Overbay, and his 46 doubles as a catcher set a new MLB record. He also collected 13 home runs and 69 RBI on the season, and nearly drew as many walks as strikeouts (66 walks to 71 strikeouts). This led to his first all-star game selection (and start) in his five-year career.

Of course, the other big part of Jonathan Lucroy's game is his play at catcher. He led the National League in games played at catcher and was second in all of MLB (only Salvador Perez of the Royals played more games). If you looked at his play at catcher, it wouldn't look that impressive by the stats. However, he is constantly regarded as thebestpitchframerinMLB. Combine that with a good bat, and it's one potent combination.

Jonathan Lucroy will get some MVP recognition this year. He probably won't win the award since the Brewers weren't in the playoffs, but should be somewhere in the top 5 in votes. It should be the final honor for him to wrap up the best season by a catcher in Brewers history.

Best Game

Jonathan Lucroy's best game of the year by WPA (according to Baseball-Reference) may have come on May 27, but his most memorable was his second-best game by WPA on June 17 against the Diamondbacks. Lucroy was 3-for-5 in the game, which included a pair of home runs in back-to-back at bats. The first was a solo shot in the sixth inning, and the second was a bases-loaded grand slam to put the Brewers ahead, which was set up by Ryan Braun getting hit by a pitch. Here is a video of the grand slam:

Contract Status

Jonathan Lucroy isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He is signed for the next two seasons, with an option for 2017 as well. He will make $3 million next year, $4 million in 2016, and has an option for $5.25 million in 2017 with a $25,000 buyout. I think it's safe to say that the Brewers will be looking at an extension sometime in the next year or two.

Casey McGehee named Sporting News Comeback Player of The Year

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Upon returning from Japan, Casey McGehee was solid in 2014. After a consistent year, Sporting News named McGehee the National League Comeback Player of The Year.

Giancarlo Stanton's name sticks out in the Marlins' lineup. And while Casey McGehee wasn't a name that many were watching before the start of the season, a hot start and consistent finish led to McGehee being named Sporting News' Comeback Player of The Year.

On the NL side, McGehee returned to the majors from a successful season in Japan to be the Marlins' everyday third baseman and cleanup hitter. Like Young, he was playing on a team-friendly one-year deal.

McGehee, who is likely to return as the Marlins' starting third baseman in 2015, posted a .287/.355/.357 batting line to complement four home runs and 76 RBIs. He appeared in all but two contests and posted a WAR of 2.0, which is significant considering Miami's lack of production from third base over the past few seasons.

When they signed him, the Marlins were confident McGehee would be able to protect Stanton in the lineup. For much of the first half and good portion of the second half of the year, he was able to do that. The power wasn't there for McGehee for most of the season, although his ability to post above average numbers with runners in scoring position likely made him a top candidate.

"I don't think anyone really knew what to expect from Casey going into the season," Marlins radio play-by-play announcer Glenn Geffner told Sporting News."Certainly he'd had a couple of productive seasons with the Brewers in 2009 and especially 2010, but as he'd be the first to tell you, his phone wasn't exactly ringing off the hook with big league opportunities the last couple of winters."

Despite his success in Japan, McGehee wasn't a popular option last offseason. The fact that he was a veteran and is versatile when it came to creating the lineup made him attractive to the Marlins last winter.

Opponents were reluctant to pitch to Stanton because of his solid offensive numbers, and McGehee was more often than not able to make them pay. Considering he batted just .217 in 116 games in 2012, McGehee's offensive comeback is notable. McGehee was solid defensively, although the Marlins weren't concerned about his fielding when they signed him.

He added: "While it would be foolish to suggest opponents feared Casey the way they did Stanton, for the first time in his years with the Marlins, Giancarlo knew he didn't have to do everything by himself. He didn't have to chase a bad ball on 3-2 and get himself out. He could take the walk and, more times than not, it seemed like Casey came through. He provided Giancarlo some piece of mind."

Geffner also praised McGehee's defense and clubhouse presence.

Miami does not have much depth at the third base position, having just traded third base prospect Colin Moran to the Astros in July. Another solid season from McGehee, who seemingly bounced back with a lot of success, may make them feel good about the move.


MVBrewers #3: Wily Peralta was the Brewers' most valuable pitcher

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Peralta outshined many of his veteran counterparts in his second full MLB season.

The 2014 Milwaukee Brewers spent a lot of money on pitching. Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse combined to earn $35 million to fill the top three spots in the starting rotation, and two of those three will receive raises next season.

Much further down this table we find Wily Peralta, who earned just $515,000 while having a season you selected as the best among Brewers pitchers. The payroll flexibility provided by getting a player of this value at a price this low is a textbook example of why developing your own pitching is so critical to winning at the major league level.

Peralta had a pretty good season in 2013, posting a 4.37 ERA over 183.1 innings and finishing as the ninth-most valuable Brewer in that year's rankings. In the year since, however, he's improved nearly every facet of his game. He led the Brewers in innings pitched (198.2) and strikeouts (154) this season, lowered his ERA by over 80 points (from 4.37 to 3.53) and dropped his walk rate from 3.6 per nine innings to 2.8. Wins aren't a reliable measure of pitcher ability, but he was only the ninth pitcher in franchise history to record 17 in a season and the third in the last 22 years.

Peralta still won't turn 26 until May and has another season to play before he's eligible for arbitration for the first time. If he continues to develop at this pace he could be something truly special.

Best Game

Peralta had a pair of remarkable performances in 2014 that stand out above the others, so instead of arbitrarily choosing one I'll tell you about both.

First, on May 2 Peralta beat the Reds almost by himself. He kept the Reds off the board in one of baseball's most homer-friendly parks, holding them to just three hits over eight innings, and hit a double that drove home both Brewers runs in a 2-0 victory. That win improved the Brewers to 21-9 on the season. Here are the highlights from that outing:

It's hard to top that performance, but Peralta's final appearance of the year on September 27 came close. He allowed one run on five hits over seven innings in that game and set a new career-high by striking out 13 Cubs in a 2-1 win that turned out to be the Brewers' final victory of the season. Let's go to the highlights:

That game was only the 12th time in franchise history a pitcher had recorded 13 or more strikeouts.

Contract Status

As noted above, Peralta earned just $515,000 in 2014 and likely won't receive a lot more in 2015 for his final pre-arbitration season unless the Brewers make an effort to lock him up long-term this winter. If they continue to go year-to-year with him he'll be eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2016 and would be a free agent before the 2019 season.

Previous MVBrewers posts can be seen at the links below, or in their own dedicated section:

  1. Jonathan Lucroy
  2. Carlos Gomez

What we learned: October 23, 2014

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Today's lessons include bullpen help, the #3 ranking in the MVBrewers series, and more.

The Brewers need bullpen help to compete in 2015.

It's the same story that we hear every offseason: The team needs help in the bullpen. It's generally a universal truth around baseball, there's very few teams that are completely secure in the performance of their bullpen. The Brewers are no exception to this, and considering how the Royals bullpen is performing, it makes the need more apparent. Yesterday, Noah looked at the bullpen situation entering 2015 and what the Brewers should do this offseason. Finding bullpen help is never easy, and proven help usually costs the most. However, the Brewers have managed to get something out of nothing in the past, so you have to think that there are options out there.

Cram Session

NL Central Update

Postseason Update

Yesterday's Games

  • World Series Game 2
    Royals 7, Giants 2
    Series Tied 1-1

News & Notes

Projection Review: Catcher [[ :) ]] and First Base [[ :( ]]

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There are two positions left to review in the projection series. Predictably, one turned out great, and one didn't.

In the past couple of weeks I have been slowly working my way through the preseason projections review series. So far I've gone back through the rotation and outfield (Part 1Part 2Part 3, and Part 4). Back in February and March I called an over or under on each player's ZiPS line. The original post on catcher and first base is right here.

Jonathan Lucroy

LucroyPAAverageOn-baseSluggingWins
ZiPS506.273.331.4373.4
Actual655.301.373.4656.3

In March I raved about Doug Melvin locking up Lucroy at a bargain price.

Fangraphs just began doing power rankings of each position across baseball, and the Brewers check in at 9th in the catcher department. If that seems low, it's because they do not include pitch framing in their defense calculation even though a lot of research has indicated that it is a very big deal, and that Lucroy is very good at it. The author, Jeff Sullivan, does not say exactly how high the rank would jump if it were to be included but says it would be "near the top". If we were having a catcher draft and I had the number 2 pick after Posey, I think I would be inclined to take Lucroy...

[I'll take the] over by tiny bit. Lucroy hit better than that line in both his fluke-injury shortened 2012 and his stellar 2013. I don't really expect him to make big improvements at this point in his career, but I don't expect him to get worse either.

I've never been happier about having low expectations. Lucroy is a legitimate MVP contender and was almost certainly one of the 5 best position players in the National League this year. He is an elite defender and took a surprisingly big step forward in offensive production when he was at a stage of his career where it would have been tough to predict big improvement. You can't expect him to go up from here, but a few more prime years of this level of production would be incredibly huge. And he's locked up through the next 3 years at $3 million, $4 million, and a $5.25 million club option.

First Base

1B OptionsAverageOn-baseSlugging
Overbay ZiPs.245.300.401
Overbay Actual.233.328.333
Reynolds ZiPS.234.335.475
Reynolds Actual.196.287.394
Francisco ZiPS.246.295.465
Francisco Actual.220.291.456

What a predictable debacle:

I cannot imagine that there is any way they keep 3 first basemen on the roster and I cannot imagine them keeping two lefties, and considering Reynolds has not really done anything to disqualify himself I think we can pencil him in. Look at that ZiPS projection below for Reynolds! The funny thing about him, though, is that ZiPS sees his defense as being so bad that even with that fairly excellent line, something he hasn't approached since 2011, he's still a below-average player overall.

People will complain, but Francisco is basically the only thing representing any upside here. Basically we have three players who look to be pretty close to what we call replacement level-- but after last year's debacle, even finding moderately competent replacement-level players will be a fairly significant upgrade. I would be very tempted to just let the Reynolds/Francisco Strikeout Record Experiment get underway and see what happens. But here's the good news: if the Brewers do find themselves in contention near the trade deadline, there's a pretty obvious spot to look to upgrade with a rental!

Over/under: Just, under, regardless.

First, let's be clear: The Brewers were much improved this year by starting Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay most games at 1st Base. That's due to the incredible hole they dug in 2013 by using poor-hitting shortstops like Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Betancourt there most days. By finding mediocre replacement level players who actually know how to play the position, the Brewers improved by at least a few wins this year.

That doesn't mean the soft first base platoon was a success. Overbay and Reynolds basically combined for a replacement-level batting line. Oddly enough, most of the value derived from that position came from the quality defense played by Reynolds. He showed himself to be a capable enough corner infield backup. But if the Brewers are again relying on Reynolds and an as-yet unkown new veteran lefty with no pop to man first base again in 2015, something has gone terribly wrong.

The Thursday Thinker: MVBrewers, one year removed

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Can you name the players we selected as 2013's most valuable Brewers?

Here at Brew Crew Ball we're in the middle of one of my favorite annual projects, our MVBrewers rankings. Over the next week or two we'll ask you to select the ten players most important to the Brewers' success (such as it was) in 2014.

These rankings create a lot of interesting debates, but they also give us a chance down the road to look back at players whose contributions we may have forgotten over time. This week's quiz deals with the MVBrewers list from one year ago. How many of the top ten from last year's list of the Most Valuable Brewers can you name in five minutes?

If the quiz isn't displaying correctly for you here or you'd simply prefer to take it over there, follow this link to play the quiz at Sporcle.com.

This quiz also features a boatload of "bonus" and "wrong" answers, players who were either honorable mentions or named as Lesser Brewers last season. There are actually more hidden answers (27) than correct answers (10) this week.

Please post your score in the comments below, but also remember that comments on this post may contain spoilers. If you get all ten answers correct as I'm sure many of you will, post your time along with your score in the comments.

If you've finished this quiz and would like another challenge, then you may also enjoy JP's quiz asking you to name the 2014 Brewers with his clues, or my quiz from two weeks ago asking you to name the Brewers with more career hits than Aramis Ramirez. You can also check out the Thinker archives from last winter.

Good luck, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Tools made good: the case of Lorenzo Cain

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Lorenzo Cain has been a huge part of Kansas City's success due to his baserunning, ability to hit for average, and superlative glovework.

Kansas City Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain was the MVP of the American League Championship Series against the Baltimore Orioles. This comes on the heels of an excellent regular season: .301/.339/.412 with 29 doubles, 28 steals, and outstanding defensive play leading to a highly-impressive 4.9 fWAR. According to WAR, he was the sixth-best outfielder in the American League this year.

Cain wasn't exactly a household name pre-season, but that's changing. Here's how he got here.

A 17th round pick in 2004 by the Milwaukee Brewers, Cain attended high school in Madison, Florida, but didn't sign immediately, heading to Tallahassee Community College. He signed as a draft-and-follow choice in the spring of '05, then proceeded to destroy the Arizona Rookie League, winning MVP and hitting .356/.418/.566. Here's the report filed for 2006:

Lorenzo Cain was drafted in the 17th round in 2004, out of high school in Madison, Florida. He didn’t make his debut until ’05, but what a debut it was, earning MVP honors in the Arizona Rookie League on the strength of a +34 percent OPS and a +48 percent SEC. Cain is toolsy, with power and speed on his resume. His strike zone judgment will need work at higher levels, as it was exposed as a weakness in a late trial in the Pioneer League. He runs well and is an effective defensive outfielder with a strong arm. Cain will need to show what he can do in full-season ball, but his debut was impressive and he should be watched closely. Grade C+


The Brewers jumped Cain up to West Virginia in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2006 with good results: .307/.385/.425 with 34 steals. He had some rough edges on defense and with his strike zone judgment, but scouting reports were overall positive. The report entering '07:

Lorenzo Cain is very toolsy, and he’s made progress converting those tools into skills. Speed is his best attribute right now, helping him on both offense and defense, although his glovework still needs additional polish. With the bat, he has developed doubles power, and is strong enough to hit more home runs as he crafts his swing. His strike zone judgment is adequate, and has shown signs of improvement. His numbers in the Sally League last year are good, with an OPS of +15. I gave him a C+ last year, and am comfortable raising that to Grade B-. Provided he develops his home run power, that grade can be further elevated.

Cain's '07 was less impressive: .276/.338/.344 with 24 steals but just two homers and a 37/97 K/BB in 482 at-bats for Brevard County in the Florida State League. Reports continued to praise his tools and it is tough to hit for power in the FSL. He did make quite a bit of progress on defense. Here's the take entering 2008:

I gave Lorenzo Cain an aggressive B- rating last year, but he didn’t live up to that in the Florida State League, posting a -4 percent OPS. He’s got great speed, but his power isn’t developing, and his strike zone judgment remains marginal. Some scouts remain optimistic about his power development, while others don’t anticipate much improvement. Cain offers good defensive skills in the outfield to go with his speed, so perhaps he can be a reserve outfielder if the power doesn’t come. Double-A in 2008 will be a stern test for him. I am reducing his rating to Grade C+, which may still be a notch too high, but given his youth and tools he still has a chance to improve.

2008 was solid: he hit .287/.358/.448 in 80 return engagement games for Brevard County, followed by a .277/.363/.486 line in 40 contests for Double-A Huntsville. He played in the Arizona Fall League and looked very good. He made progress honing his swing, showing more pop while still stealing 25 bases overall. The report for '09:

Cain is a tools monster, but unlike many such players he’s begun to develop skills to make those tools meaningful. Refinements to his swing and better plate discipline boosted his production last year, giving him a +14 percent OPS in the Florida State League and a +13 percent OPS in the Southern League. The fact that his production remained steady after moving up to Double-A is a good sign. He still needs to cut back on strikeouts and improve his zone judgment, but progress is clearly evident. Cain’s speed is another positive asset, and he is also a fine defensive outfielder. He can play center now, though that may not be true if he loses his speed eventually. Cain hit .333/.382/.635 in the Arizona Fall League, with four steals in five attempts. He should begin 2009 in Triple-A, and if he maintains his current rate of progress, he’ll be ready for a major league job in ’10, producing good speed, average power, and (hopefully) reasonable on-base ability. Grade B-.

Alas, 2009 was a lost season: he suffered an early knee injury and hit just .218/.293/.330 in 60 games upon returning, split between Low-A Wisconsin and Double-A Huntsville. I saw him for Wisconsin and he was clearly struggling, although he looked a little better in the fall. The report for '10:

Lorenzo Cain has tremendous tools, and at times he flashes good skills to go with them. I was somewhat optimistic about his chances to develop entering 2009, but his season was a disaster, due to an April knee injury. He returned to the field in late June, and I got to see a couple of his rehab outings for Wisconsin. He didn’t look right; he was either still in pain, or playing like he was afraid of the pain returning. His swing was fouled up, and he wasn’t running with his normal speed. The knee got better by the end of the year, and Cain looked more like his normal self in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .242/.375/.303...still not very good, but his swing looked better and at least he was controlling the strike zone again. When healthy, Cain is very fast, has surprising power, will draw an occasional walk, and presents as an excellent defensive outfielder. He needs 400 at-bats in Triple-A to refine his swing. Cain’s grade has been yo-yoing between B- and C+ for four years. It’s back down to Grade C+ again, which still assumes some optimism about his offensive development

With a healthy knee, Cain returned to his former self in 2010, hitting .317/.402/.432 between Huntsville and Triple-A Nashville, then .306/.348/.415 in 147 at-bats for the Brewers, exceeding rookie qualifications for 2011. As you know, he was subsequently traded to the Royals in the Zack Greinke deal. He had a great year in Triple-A in '11 (.312/.380/.497) but it took him a couple of years to seize a regular role in Kansas City due to more injuries and erratic hitting.

Cain is now 28 years old. He still has some weaknesses. His BB/K/PA ratio is problematic and his OBP is highly-dependent on his batting average, which is okay if he's hitting .300 but not so much if the BABIP doesn't go his way and he's hitting .260. He still lacks consistent home run power. However, Cain has still been a huge part of Kansas City's success due to his baserunning, ability to hit for average, and superlative glovework. His WAR was second among Royals position players this year, trailing only Alex Gordon.

What does the future hold? I still think it is possible that Cain could show more home run power in time. He flashed it in the minors, and while he isn't going to hit 30 homers playing regularly in KC, it wouldn't surprise me if he had a season where he hits 15.

In all the best ways, Cain reminds me a great deal of the old school Royals outfielders from the 1970s: his skills would fit right in with Amos Otis, Al Cowens, and Willie Wilson.

lorenzo cain

Lorenzo Cain, photo by Rob Carr, Getty Images

What we learned: October 24, 2014

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Today's lessons include a new hitting coach, Gold Glove finalists, and much more.

Darnell Coles was named as the new hitting coach for the Brewers.

Two weeks ago, the Brewers announced that Ron Roenicke would return and that hitting coach Johnny Narron and first base coach Garth Iorg would not. They started a search for new coaches soon after that, and we now know who one of them will be. Yesterday, the Brewers announced that Darnell Coles will take over the position. Coles had been with the Brewers from 2010-2013 in the minor leagues at Double-A Huntsville. The Tigers hired him last season to be their assistant hitting coach, and now he will return to the Brewers organization. They are hoping familiarity with the hitters will help him work with them, and that some of the success the Tigers saw in their offense will carry over.

Jonathan Lucroy and Gerardo Parra were named Gold Glove finalists.

Yesterday afternoon, Rawlings announced their Gold Glove finalists for each position in each league. Two Brewers made the lists at their respective positions. Jonathan Lucroy was named as one of the finalists at catcher, and Gerardo Parra was also named as a finalist in right field. Lucroy's nomination is not much of a surprise, as he has been regarded as the best catcher in the National League this season. He will compete against Russell Martin and Yadier Molina for the title, who have combined to win the last seven awards at the position. Meanwhile, Parra's competition will be Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton, and both are superstars at the position. The one notable snub this year is Carlos Gomez, who won the award in center field last year but was not a finalist this year. Instead, Billy Hamilton, Juan Lagares, and Denard Span were named for center field. There is an argument that Gomez wasn't as good defensively this year, but there is one candidate on that list that wasn't as good as Gomez. We will find out who wins the award at each position on November 4.

Cram Session

MVBrewers

Other Stories from BCB

Other Notes

Postseason Update

This Weekend's Games

  • World Series Game 3 - Friday @ 7:00 pm, FOX
    Royals (Jeremy Guthrie) @ Giants (Tim Hudson)
  • World Series Game 4 - Saturday @ 7:00 pm, FOX
    Royals (Jason Vargas) @ Giants (Ryan Vogelsong)
  • World Series Game 5 - Sunday @ 7:00 pm, FOX
    Royals (James Shields) @ Giants (Madison Bumgarner)

News & Notes

What's the deal with Rickie Weeks?

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The Milwaukee second baseman had seemingly fallen apart; then came 2014. Which version of him will show up next year?

Entering the 2014 season, Rickie Weeks didn't have too much security. He had just posted a sub-replacement level campaign — his third straight year of decline — and Milwaukee planned to platoon him at second base with Scooter Gennett, who would soon take over the position full-time. At age 31, he appeared to have an inauspicious future.

And then, a funny thing happened: Weeks played pretty well. Oh, his defense was still unfathomably awful — among second baseman with at least 400 innings in a season since 2002, his UZR/150 of -23.5 this year ranked third-worst. On an aggregate basis, his work in the field was seven runs below average. But he offset that with 9.1 runs on offense, via a 127 wRC+ that tied his previous career high. Although he only amassed 286 plate appearances on the year, he provided his club with 1.2 wins above replacement.

With an 8.7% walk rate and a 25.5% strikeout rate (compared to preceding career numbers of 10.6% and 23.3%), Weeks didn't derive his exquisite offense from plate discipline. His .179 ISO topped the .149 mark he put up in his subpar 2013, but was nonetheless in line with the .175 figure he had theretofore posted. Weeks' quasi-breakout came from that most capricious of statistics: BABIP. 35.5% of his balls in play went for hits in 2014, compared to 30.2% from 2003 to 2013 (and 26.8% in 2013).

BABIP includes a lot of noise, and therefore can fluctuate without indicating an alteration in skill. Hence, Steamer's 2015 projection for Weeks: a .294 BABIP, and a resultant 98 wRC+. Even some regression to the mean vis-à-vis his fielding numbers won't make him a respectable player. But does Steamer' pessimism here accurately reflect the reality? What if Weeks has legitimately changed?

Let's look at batted ball data — specifically, ground balls and fly balls. For hitters, they stabilize at a mere 80 balls in play, so we can feel confident about the validity of Weeks' 2014 (in which opponents fielded 172 balls that he hit). Of those 172, 59.3% stayed on the ground, while only 21.5% went airborne. Considering that the first eleven years of his career saw him accrue 48.8% and 33.8% ground ball and fly ball rates, respectively, I'd say this might have some significance to it. Indeed, even if we regress his BABIP on each type of batted ball to his career norms, that grounder clip would still catapult his BABIP to .325.

What induced this? I can't say for sure, but for what it's worth, Weeks did make some changes in the offseason. From March:

Weeks...made adjustments in his approach in spring camp. Most noticeably, he raised his hands, making it easier to get his bat into the hitting zone in timely fashion.

Perhaps because of this, he posted the highest Z-Swing% of his career, albeit with a similar Z-Contact%. Maybe a more aggressive technique begat ground ball-heavy results; given the BABIP that came with it, I'd say this was a worthwhile change.

So let's say Weeks continues to put the ball on the ground. How will that affect his power? In 2014, he might not have had as many fly balls, but the ones that he did have went fairly far. His average fly ball distance in 2014 was 288.6 feet*; while that represents a seven-foot downgrade from his 2007-2013 average, it still would have ranked 70th in the majors (out of 298 hitters) if he had qualified.

*As some points of reference, Edwin Encarnacion and Anthony Rizzo— who possessed ISOs of .279 and .240, respectively, this season — also hit their fly balls an average of 288 feet. They had higher fly ball rates too, but then again, we shouldn't expect Weeks to turn back into a slugger.

Now, obviously Weeks' clout will decay to some extent with this many worm burners. However, the aforementioned Steamer projection has his ISO decreasing, as well as his BABIP. If he keeps up this new batted-ball profile, the former will probably fall; if he doesn't, the latter will fall — but both of them shouldn't fall. It's an either/or situation, and both outcomes have some promise to them.

Despite Weeks's surprising 2014 output, the Brewers almost certainly won't pick up his option; they still plan to move ahead with Gennett at second, and Weeks won't move accordingly. Wherever he ends up, his performance may fall back a bit from 2014, but don't let it surprise you if he outperforms his projection. This 32-year-old isn't done yet.

. . .

All data courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Heat Maps.

Ryan Romano is an editor for Beyond the Box Score. He also writes about the Orioles on Birds Watcherand on Camden Chat that one time. Follow him on Twitter at @triple_r_ if you enjoy angry tweets about Maryland sports.


What we learned: October 27, 2014

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Today's lessons include a Gold Glove "snub", #5 in the MVBrewers series, and much more.

Carlos Gomez was not snubbed for the Gold Glove award (but may have been snubbed from the top 3).

When the Gold Glove award finalists were announced on Thursday, we were shocked to see that Carlos Gomez was not listed among the top 3 candidates in center field. It seemed like a snub to the center fielder who won the Gold Glove last year. However, Noah argued on Friday that it's not the snub we think it is. Looking at the numbers for Gomez, this was not his best season. It was a step back from his Gold Glove season last year, and there are better candidates out there. However, Noah also notes that he should have still been a top 3 candidate, at least ahead of one of the other candidates. That is where you can argue that Gomez got snubbed this year.

Cram Session

Postseason Update

This Weekend's Games

  • World Series Game 3
    Royals 3, Giants 2
  • World Series Game 4
    Giants 11, Royals 4
  • World Series Game 5
    Giants 5, Royals 0
    Giants Lead Series 3-2

News & Notes

NL Central Update

MVBrewers #6: Michael Bruce Fiers

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Fiers brought stability to the rotation in August and September

Drafted in the 22nd round in 2009, Mike Fiers overcame some major odds just to make to the big league, let alone find himself among the most valuable Brewers in 2014.  Yet he added some major mid-season punch to a depleted pitching corp and by September had proven himself one of team's most reliable rotation arms.

After a promising 2012 campaign, Fiers disappointed in 2013 with a 7.25 ERA in 11 appearances with the Brewers, and was merely mentioned in our "Lesser Brewers" column last year.  He was sent back to Nashville where he almost immediately broke his forearm, ending his season.  Entering 2014, Fiers was not even a serious candidate for a roster spot.  He absolutely destroyed opposing batters at Nashville though, making 11 starts with a 2.53 ERA.

Fiers was called up in June as a bullpen arm, and again in August to fill in for the injured Matt Garza.  In his first start on August 9, Fiers was dominant, out-dueling former Brewers ace Zack Greinke for his first win since May 2013.  Over 10 games started for the Brewers in 2014, Fiers went at least six innings eight times, and he allowed just 15 earned runs (2.09 ERA).  Despite a straight fastball that sits right around 88-89 MPH, Fiers managed to strike out just over a batter per inning, relying primarily on deception in his delivery, excellent command, and complementary offspeed offerings.  Fiers displayed more fly ball tendencies than I'd be comfortable with at Miller Park, yet allowed just six HR over about 65 innings.

At 29 years old, it's too much to expect that Fiers will develop into a #1-type pitcher, but he'll definitely be in the mix for a back-of-rotation spot next spring, with a lot of upside.  The hope is obviously that Fiers comes close to approximating over a full season what he did during his abbreviated stint in 2014.

Best Game

Win Probability Added says Fiers' best game was his first start on August 9 (8 IP, 1 ER, 5 K).  But let's use another measure, and let's say that other measure is degree of embarrassment imposed upon division rivals.*  Using that measure, there was no better game pitched than August 14, when Fiers, in just his second start of the season, fanned 14 Cubs over six innings at Wrigley - almost all of them on rising fastballs:

*Fiers start against the Cardinals on September 5 (6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K) - more valuable by WPA standards - also qualifies.

Contract Status

Fiers is in his final year of pre-arbitration and will likely earn somewhere around $500,000.  He will be arbitration eligible for the first time in 2016, and becomes a free agent in 2019.

Previous MVBrewers posts can be seen at the links below, or in their own dedicated section:

  1. Jonathan Lucroy
  2. Carlos Gomez
  3. Wily Peralta
  4. Kyle Lohse
  5. Yovani Gallardo

In the wake of Oscar's passing, Mike Matheny is exactly who the Cardinals need

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Rest in peace, Oscar Taveras.

On June 22, 2014, the twelve year anniversary of Darryl Kile's sudden and tragic death, I found myself in a Busch Stadium conference room, surrounded by forty or so members of the Cardinals blogging community. General manager John Mozeliak and team president Bill DeWitt III had made themselves available for a handful of questions prior to the team's Sunday afternoon contest against the Philadelphia Phillies. Fortunately, I was able to ask one of Mr. Mozeliak, one of the best, most straight-forward GMs in the league. Little did we know at the time, but the question and especially Mo's answer would become eerily relevant a mere four and a half months later:

Joe Schwarz: Mr. Mozeliak, twelve years ago today, TLR was dealt with one of the toughest situations this organization has ever faced. What qualities in Mike Matheny do you see that would make him able to handle a tough situation as well as Tony Did?

John Mozeliak: You referring to [Darryl] Kile? Well, I think when you look back at that time period, Mike was also one of those key spokesmen during that period. If anybody went to the funeral, [Mike] was also one of the speakers. You know, Mike’s a tremendous leader. He’s someone that understands people and relates very well. Situations like that you hope you never have to repeat, you never have to see again, but that is sort of his wheelhouse when it comes to leadership. What you get from Mike as a day-to-day manager, I think that’s sort of the evolution that we are watching, but something along those lines? There’s probably no one else I’d rather see.

Just two days ago, Ben discussed the idea of bringing Joe Maddon, one of the league's most renowned tacticians, in as a replacement for Matheny going forward. The reasonable conclusion of his article? "Almost certainly not." Now, after the tragic passing of 22-year-old Oscar Taveras, the choice at manager has never been clearer. For the foreseeable future, Mike Matheny is the guy. Outside of a virtually impossible return of Tony La Russa, there is not a single manager I would rather have leading this club through this tragedy, and I truly mean that.

Is Matheny's tactical decision making still very much a work in progress? Absolutely. Mozeliak and Matheny will both attest to that. However, beyond lineup making, depth chart development, and bullpen management, there is the utmost importance of being a well-respected leader of (at least) 25 men. This characteristic is exactly what the front office sold us on when Matheny was hired three years ago as the replacement for a living legend. Have there been instances that have led to doubts about Matheny's leadership over the last three seasons? You bet, but at the same time, we have very little clue what happens behind closed locker room doors, and hundreds of quotes from players provide solid evidence to what the front office told us three years ago.

Looking ahead, if the front office fills the active roster from within, the projected average age of the 2015 Cardinals will be a tick less than 27 years old—making St. Louis one of the top three youngest clubs in all of baseball. Matheny is not dealing with 25 different machines or statistical projections here, either. He is dealing with 25 human beings, with real life memories and real life emotions.

By my count, at least 18 probable returning members of the active roster have spent varying amounts of time with Taveras in the minor leagues, and the remaining seven got to know him quite this past season. Ten members are within three years of age of Taveras, full of a young exuberance, similar to what we saw from Oscar just two plus weeks ago. What Matheny is now dealing with is nowhere to be found when looking through an MLB manager's job description. Yet, Matheny admirably dealt with it before (with DK57), and this experience helps solidify him as the best candidate for dealing with it again. The Cardinals will trudge forward with Matheny calm at the helm.

Plus, Matheny's first full statement on the subject matter, via the St. Louis Cardinals, couldn't have been more perfect:

I was asked last night to give some words regarding the tragic death of Oscar Taveras, but I just simply couldn't.

First of all, it felt like a bad dream that could not be real, and when reality kicked in, my words didn't even seem to make sense. To say this is a horrible loss of a life ended too soon would be an understatement. To talk about the potential of his abilities seemed to be untimely. All I wanted to do was get the guys together and be with our baseball family. I know the hurt that comes along with buying into the brotherhood of a baseball team. That hurt is just as powerful as the joys that come with this life. Not to say it is even close to the depth of pain his true family is going through, but the pain itself is just as real. The ache is deep because the relationships were deep, and forged through time and trials.

To the many fans who have already reached out with condolences, and to the many more who are in mourning, thank you for taking these players in, like they are one of your own. This level of care is what sets our fans apart.

In my opinion, the word "love" is the most misused, and misunderstood word in the English language. It is not popular for men to use this word, and even less popular for athletes. But, there is not a more accurate word for how a group of men share a deep and genuine concern for each other. We loved Oscar, and he loved us. That is what a team does, that is what a family does. You will be missed, Oscar.

I encourage everyone to step back from the statistics for a while and appreciate the situation the Cardinals are in given the terrible circumstances. Not many organizations can recover quickly from tragedies such as this one, but with a solid foundation already laid, and Matheny at the helm, El Birdos will move forward, and it's each one of our jobs to keep up.

******************

On a personal note, I was only able to see Oscar play in person on one occasion. Living in Indianapolis while I finish out my PharmD at Butler University makes being a Cardinals fan difficult at times. Thus, one day in July, the twelfth to be exact, I bought a pair of tickets the morning of the game so that I could see Oscar and the Cardinals take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park, with a win bringing the team into a tie at the top of the National League Central.

Mandatory GIF credit: @mstreeter06

The result: One relatively harmless single (off a 94 MPH fastball, no less) in five at bats. Not that big of a deal, right? Well, to me, it was a single that I will remember forever. If Fox Sports Midwest (the game was actually on Fox Sports One apparently) had tracked its exit-velocity, I'm pretty sure this one would have neared an astounding 110 MPH. As many scouts have noted over the years and as we had just begun to witness firsthand, the ball sounded and tracked differently off Oscar's barrel. Nearly every time he made contact, it was violent harmony.

Rest in peace, Oscar Taveras. Rest in peace.

What we learned: October 28, 2014

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Today's lessons include a roster move, #6 in the MVBrewers poll, and more.

Cram Session

Stories from BCB

Other Notes

NL Central Update

Postseason Update

Today's Games

  • World Series Game 7 - 7:00 pm, FOX
    Giants (Jake Peavy) @ Royals (Yordano Ventura)
    Giants Lead Series 3-2

News & Notes

MVBrewers #8: Aramis Ramirez's down year was still good enough

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One of baseball's oldest regulars was still an All Star in 2014.

The 2014 MLB season was, of course, largely built around Derek Jeter's farewell tour. The Yankees great's age 40 season is something of an exception that proves the recent rule, however.

You see, Jeter, Tigers outfielder Torii Hunter and Red Sox DH David Ortiz were the only three regular position players in all of baseball to qualify for the batting title in their age 37 season or later. The fourth-oldest regular in all of baseball in 2014 was Aramis Ramirez, who turned 36 in June.

Ramirez overcame a (somewhat undeserved) reputation as a slow starter to have a pretty solid first few weeks, batting .347/.395/.493 in his first 20 appearances. His performance slowed a bit after that and he spent much of the month of May on the disabled list, but he still started the All Star Game at third base.

His up-and-down season continued after the break, as Ramirez posted a .541 OPS in July, a .961 mark in August and stumbled across the finish line with a .551 in September. I don't recall Ramirez publicly blaming fatigue for his late struggles, but he did tell reporters during the season's final month that he wasn't sure he wanted to keep playing in 2015.

This is true of several players, but you can draw a pretty distinct correlation between Ramirez's performance and the Brewers' wins and losses. Ramirez hit .344/.375/.545 in his 66 appearances in Brewers wins this season, as opposed to .224/.282/.303 in losses. That's a 336-point swing in OPS, as compared to a 252-point swing for the team as a whole.

Overall, Ramirez has been a major league regular since the 2001 season and has only had one season (2010 with the Cubs) where his numbers were this low. His .757 OPS was down more than 80 points from his career marks, and his 66 RBI were the second-least he's ever had when appearing in at least 100 games.

The challenge, though, is that Ramirez still has some value at a position where the team doesn't have much organizational depth. That's what makes the Brewers' pending decision so important and so difficult.

Best game

Ramirez had three hits in 14 different games this season, but the last of those 14 might have been the most important one. Ramirez went 3-for-4 with a double and a walk and drove in a pair of runs against the Marlins on September 9, helping the Brewers tie a game they eventually lost 6-3. He drove in the team's first run with a double in the third, and scored Scooter Gennett with the tying run in the seventh. Here's the latter play:

Contract status

Ramirez will be the subject of one of the most interesting decisions of the early offseason for the Brewers. They have until early next week to announce their plans to either exercise or decline their portion of Ramirez's $14 million mutual option for 2015, and will have to pay him a $4 million buyout (over two installments in December of 2015 and 2016) if they opt not to bring him back. If the Brewers or Ramirez decline the option, he'll become a free agent.

Either way, however, the Brewers will not be done paying him. $6 million of the $16 million in Ramirez's 2014 salary was deferred and will be split over a pair of payments in December of 2017 and 2018.

Previous MVBrewers

Previous MVBrewers posts can be seen at the links below, or in their own dedicated section:

  1. Jonathan Lucroy
  2. Carlos Gomez
  3. Wily Peralta
  4. Kyle Lohse
  5. Yovani Gallardo
  6. Mike Fiers
  7. Francisco Rodriguez
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